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60% of the official community polled think Darkfall will have over 150,000 subscribers, 40% think ov

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  • GerecGerec Member CommonPosts: 185
    Originally posted by Silvarch


    You two seem to misunderstand something. That style of game is not particularly popular, and the only reason it temporarily thrived as it did was because Ultima Online had no competitors. If what both you say is true (how casual friendlier it is or how better than the alternative it is) then why indeed did EQ and its clones have dominated the market ever since it released and why was Trammel introduced and why was Felucca always empty, if it was that much better?
    It's a niche style which the vast majority of the players in the market does not like, despite what you may personally feel about it.


    This is an interesting and professional view on the subject, I recommend it.

     

    Decent article, but also not an all encompassing point of view. The reason griefing was and is a problem is that there is not a penalty severe enough for it. In DF, griefers will be banned from the vast majority of towns, trading posts, cities, etc. They'll be killed on sight in most places. They may band together and make their own stronghold where they can go to do their business etc, but in that case they'll just be holed up brigands. People will hunt them down. Also, while gear is important, it's not so important that losing your gear will set you back so far. If you have a clan, it will be very easy to re equip you with high quality stuff and go back out. The world is big, and hopefully the above will deter griefers enough so that you won't see one on every corner.

    We'll see how it turns out. This is not UO, this is not AC darktide, shadowbane, etc. It may be similar but let's see how it works out before we decide whether or not it will work.

  • SilvarchSilvarch Member Posts: 233

    I disagree with you, I don't think the style, even artificially policed, will draw in the mainstream player, or the core player traditionally associated with the word "carebear" (i.e. the ones that jumped ship when EQ was released or moved to Trammel). If gear or skills won't matter that much then someone not interested in full time PvP (or someone interested in PvP but not full time and merely for the fun and the challenge, and adverse to a risk/reward affair) would have little incentive to do anything else. But that's just my opinion.

  • UncertaintyPUncertaintyP Member UncommonPosts: 69

    A lot of people still play old UO shards just for fun risk filled PvP (and even PvE more rarely). You can find even more people in other MMOs that will reminisce about the good old days when their character didn't drop only XP, and everyone wasn't a 12 year old. People who think these kinds of games don't have a market need to realize some people found out games are just games, and you don't have to be a coward in them.

  • SilvarchSilvarch Member Posts: 233

    Right, and I'm one of them, but this isn't a lot of people. I do believe there's a sizeable market for a sandbox (SWG pre-CU, the various alternate reality games like Second Life and Entropia), but not that big a one for a PvP heavy no holds barred one like DF wants to be.

  • YatenkaiohuYatenkaiohu Member Posts: 78

    This is so annoying. You know what none of you know when Darkfall will be released and how many people will subscribe. Nothing like Darkfall has ever come out before. Shadowbane was point and click FFS, so don't compare. It doesn't matter if it has 8 million players, just enough for the company to support its long hard work. Lots of people bought Oblivion right? GTA IV? Everybody wants something new and Darkfall is it.

  • RoinRoin Member RarePosts: 3,444
    Originally posted by Yatenkaiohu


    This is so annoying. You know what none of you know when Darkfall will be released and how many people will subscribe. Nothing like Darkfall has ever come out before. Shadowbane was point and click FFS, so don't compare. It doesn't matter if it has 8 million players, just enough for the company to support its long hard work. Lots of people bought Oblivion right? GTA IV? Everybody wants something new and Darkfall is it.

     

    What's so annoying about it?  This is one of the few threads that hasn't broken out into an all out brawl.  Between the two factions that visit this forum.  It's just a little guessing game, that will reveal who was right and wrong sometime down the road.  Harmless fun.

    In War - Victory.
    In Peace - Vigilance.
    In Death - Sacrifice.

  • ghoul31ghoul31 Member Posts: 1,955
    Originally posted by erawropav

    Originally posted by Xxeon


    i can see 50-250k  depending



     

    I bet someone said that about Shadowbane and Dark and Light too.

    In fact I can almost gurantee they did.

    It's going to be funny as hell to see all these tools who are waiting for this overhyped turd to launch get slapped in the face with reality and find out what they've been playing in their heads the last 7 years is not there



     

    Shadowbane had 100k subscribers at launch. And Darkfall is supposed to be a better version of Shadowbane. So they could easily get 200k subscribers if the game has most of what they claim

     

  • YatenkaiohuYatenkaiohu Member Posts: 78
    Originally posted by Roin

    Originally posted by Yatenkaiohu


    This is so annoying. You know what none of you know when Darkfall will be released and how many people will subscribe. Nothing like Darkfall has ever come out before. Shadowbane was point and click FFS, so don't compare. It doesn't matter if it has 8 million players, just enough for the company to support its long hard work. Lots of people bought Oblivion right? GTA IV? Everybody wants something new and Darkfall is it.

     

    What's so annoying about it?  This is one of the few threads that hasn't broken out into an all out brawl.  Between the two factions that visit this forum.  It's just a little guessing game, that will reveal who was right and wrong sometime down the road.  Harmless fun.

     

    I am sorry but when you've been following the game for a few years you've seen a lot of guessing games. That is what makes it so annoying D:

  • maskedweaselmaskedweasel Member LegendaryPosts: 12,195
    Originally posted by Roin

    Originally posted by Yatenkaiohu


    This is so annoying. You know what none of you know when Darkfall will be released and how many people will subscribe. Nothing like Darkfall has ever come out before. Shadowbane was point and click FFS, so don't compare. It doesn't matter if it has 8 million players, just enough for the company to support its long hard work. Lots of people bought Oblivion right? GTA IV? Everybody wants something new and Darkfall is it.

     

    What's so annoying about it?  This is one of the few threads that hasn't broken out into an all out brawl.  Between the two factions that visit this forum.  It's just a little guessing game, that will reveal who was right and wrong sometime down the road.  Harmless fun.



     

    Well I think if its actually a good skill based game it can pull a good deal of followers.  A nifty RPG base and make kind-of an Action RPG/FPS base if the combat is done correctly.  At least thats kind of what I'm hoping for.



  • GerecGerec Member CommonPosts: 185
    Originally posted by Silvarch


    Right, and I'm one of them, but this isn't a lot of people. I do believe there's a sizeable market for a sandbox (SWG pre-CU, the various alternate reality games like Second Life and Entropia), but not that big a one for a PvP heavy no holds barred one like DF wants to be.

     

    You have to consider. There haven't really been any games where the full pvp system has truly worked as it should. When it works, the focus of the game is actually balanced between meaningful fighting like over clan wars, but also the sandbox part, where people will explore, build houses etc. Combat is a part but it's not all about combat, it's about removing artificial limitations. When the system doesn't work, it becomes all about fighting because it's exploitable. We'll see if they can get it to work.

     

  • XxeonXxeon Member Posts: 559
    Originally posted by Gerec

    Originally posted by Silvarch


    Right, and I'm one of them, but this isn't a lot of people. I do believe there's a sizeable market for a sandbox (SWG pre-CU, the various alternate reality games like Second Life and Entropia), but not that big a one for a PvP heavy no holds barred one like DF wants to be.

     

    You have to consider. There haven't really been any games where the full pvp system has truly worked as it should. When it works, the focus of the game is actually balanced between meaningful fighting like over clan wars, but also the sandbox part, where people will explore, build houses etc. Combat is a part but it's not all about combat, it's about removing artificial limitations. When the system doesn't work, it becomes all about fighting because it's exploitable. We'll see if they can get it to work.

     



     

    yep I have no idea if the game will be good or not or if they can get it all working but im willing to give them a chance.. as long as i can play free first

  • darkstar912darkstar912 Member Posts: 37
    Originally posted by erawropav


    4 months before a supposed European launch and they have yet to prove that a game even EXISTS and idiots are speculating about it having 250,000 players
     LOL

     

    qft

     

    at this point its pretty clear that Pirates of the Carribean and Fly For Fun will hold a significantly larger player base than Darkfall.

  • huxflux2004huxflux2004 Member Posts: 730

    Hm, the official forums of a game, packed with passionate followers, conducted a poll and resulted in enthusiastic numbers. How credible!

  • DreamstriderDreamstrider Member Posts: 62
    Originally posted by huxflux2004


    Hm, the official forums of a game, packed with passionate followers, conducted a poll and resulted in enthusiastic numbers. How credible!

     

    Atleast they are enthusiastic :)

  • FSE-CamelFSE-Camel Member Posts: 32

    Everything hinges on the features in the game, and how smoothly it runs IMO. In the event the game works really well, I think a couple hundred thousand subs isn't unrealistic at all.

    Some of the game comparisons are not fair either without knowing how well Darkfall works. Dark & Light was a ridiculous piece of unfinished/overhyped crap. Shadowbane had its share of technical problems early on, and both SB and UO are from an era where the pool of potential MMO players was drastically smaller than it is today. Archlord? C'mon, that game was a BORING Korean-style grindfest. It went F2P because it sucks hard.

    IMO, IF the game works well, anyone thinking it will only attract 10k subs and will die in 6 months in this day in age in MMOland is the delusional one here. Its true the game will be too hardcore for some, but if its good, its going to attract more players than EVE at a bare minimum.

     

  • CereoCereo Member Posts: 551
    Originally posted by FSE-Camel


    Everything hinges on the features in the game, and how smoothly it runs IMO. In the event the game works really well, I think a couple hundred thousand subs isn't unrealistic at all.
    Some of the game comparisons are not fair either without knowing how well Darkfall works. Dark & Light was a ridiculous piece of unfinished/overhyped crap. Shadowbane had its share of technical problems early on, and both SB and UO are from an era where the pool of potential MMO players was drastically smaller than it is today. Archlord? C'mon, that game was a BORING Korean-style grindfest. It went F2P because it sucks hard.
    IMO, IF the game works well, anyone thinking it will only attract 10k subs and will die in 6 months in this day in age in MMOland is the delusional one here. Its true the game will be too hardcore for some, but if its good, its going to attract more players than EVE at a bare minimum.
     

    Has it shown any promise it will be able to run smoothly? Don't think so.

     

    Can you compare it to Shadowbane and UO? Yes! Darkfall is UO 5.0 more or less. And like someone else said, we learned that only Felucca doesn't work, people hate that. UO would be F2P like Archlord if it was like that... not to mention you forgot to mention Shadowbane has been F2P for a long time now., hrm I wonder why?

    Just because the market is larger now doesn't mean anything. The market it larger because they made better casual games that people like and they are never going to go back to griefing. I have the greatest memories of UO, more than any other game ever... but I can't go play it in todays market. There are games with much more polish and general fun.

    What we can look at is todays current market. Vanguard came out, promised new features with old style gameplay for the hardcores, it didn't work. They had to change the game play to make it easier, they had lots of bugs and could not live up on all their promises, and its now struggling along. And they had SOE fitting the bills.

    AoC? It promised 1/10 of what DF does, was made by Funcom, who made an MMO before, and it is tanking horribly. I really want to hear someone argue all this evidence as not a good indiction this game will have 250K subs or anywhere near it.

    As for the point mentioned about "lots of people play on UO free servers with old rules". I did that before, the big name servers have like 300 people on. 300 people is a stretch from 250K.

  • FSE-CamelFSE-Camel Member Posts: 32
    Originally posted by Cereo



    Has it shown any promise it will be able to run smoothly? Don't think so.

     

     

    Has it shown any information that it will NOT be able to run smoothly? Don't think so either.

    Debating this particular topic is futile and dumb, frankly. I maintain my position that IF the game works well, it'll have at least EVE #s in terms of subscribers. That is all...

    And I still fail to see how you can compare a game that nobody has played yet to UO, SB or anything else. You are comparing a RL experience with existing games, to another new game's claims on paper. How is that valid on any level?

  • mike470mike470 General CorrespondentMember Posts: 2,396
    Originally posted by FSE-Camel

    Originally posted by Cereo



    Has it shown any promise it will be able to run smoothly? Don't think so.

     

     

    Has it shown any information that it will NOT be able to run smoothly? Don't think so either.

    Considering there is no beta, no video of things running well, no video of sages, no video of crafting, no video of AI PVE, etc., then yes, I would be inclined to think that DF isn't ready for a full blown release.  They can't just say they have them and then sell the game.  Games can't go without testing, especially a game like DF (which has no instances and huge seiges).  Hell, AOC had a year of testing but still released buggy and incomplete.

    Debating this particular topic is futile and dumb, frankly. I maintain my position that IF the game works well, it'll have at least EVE #s in terms of subscribers. That is all...

    It's not.  With Darkfall in development, one of the main subjects will be how many subs the game will get (IF it ever gets released).  Having a complete launch is a very important issue when it comes to this, AOC is a perfect example of this.  IF they had a smooth launch, mabye they would have more subs?

    And I still fail to see how you can compare a game that nobody has played yet to UO, SB or anything else. You are comparing a RL experience with existing games, to another new game's claims on paper. How is that valid on any level?

    People are just comparing the features (that may or may not be in DF, since Adventurine can't prove anything).  The features are great, but they are just words...and six months from release, words mean nothing.



     

    __________________________________________________
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  • lotharrlotharr Member Posts: 981

    EVE Online is an FFA PvP and full loot MMO. EVE Online has about 250 000 players. Also,  the space ship setting is a lot more of a niche than the usual fantasy setting.

  • ghoul31ghoul31 Member Posts: 1,955
    Originally posted by lotharr


    EVE Online is an FFA PvP and full loot MMO. EVE Online has about 250 000 players. Also,  the space ship setting is a lot more of a niche than the usual fantasy setting.



     

    Eve has safe zones. Its not totally open pvp

  • brainiakbrainiak Member Posts: 28

    eve is space game,you are a ship there, that's probably a reason why its only a 250k subscribers.

    but on the other hand there is a lot of alts...

    imo dfo of course will be niche, but it's pretty large niche, especially when you consider that mmorpg market is growing really fast, so i guess dfo after about 1 years from release will have >250k subscribers.

  • ShadowoakShadowoak Member Posts: 236
    Originally posted by FischerBlack

    Originally posted by Brezjnev

    Originally posted by Trogg13


    i agree those numbers are a bit unrealistic, especially as the percentages reported in your subject add to 125%...
     
    DF devs have said they plan to start with a small number of servers and grow from there, which is IMO the smart way to go. if done well, and not too hardcore, i could see DF getting 250K subscribers over a year or 2.
     
    DF fans may be optimistic, but DF trolls are flat-out stupid.

     

    60% of the official community polled think Darkfall will have over 150,000 subscribers, 40% think over 250,000 and 25% think it will be over 750,000.

     

    If 25% think it'll be over 750k, then those 25% think it will also be over 250k, added up with those that think it will be between 250k and 750k that makes ~40% who think it will be over 250k. The one who is wrong here is you, not the OP: Think twice before you go around calling other people stupid, certainly if you have such bad math skills.

    I was just about to post the same thing, well said.

    In regards to the polled subscription numbers themselves, I agree with the sentiment here that they are extremely unrealistic. If DF manages to have close to 100,000 subs 12 months after launch it will have 'hit it out of the park' so to speak.

    750,000 is rediculous tbh

     

    Are you both stupid? 25+40=65 last time I checked. And even if make an approximation when adding them, say it's exactly 22% + 38%, which I must inform you does give a result of 60%, then that means that the percentage of the people that bieleve that DF will have above 150k subs and below 250k is 0, which is improbable, or negative, which is impossible.

     

    EDIT and to add to the conversation, yeah, those numbers are unrealistic. 100k will be the top DF hits, if it does. Which by the way I think is fine with Aventurine.

  • FodfodFodfod Member Posts: 53

    August 2009, the game has a maximum of 15 000 players.

  • maxnrosymaxnrosy Member Posts: 608
    Originally posted by Fodfod


    August 2009, the game has a maximum of 15 000 players.

     

    ewwww necro

    Watching Fanbois drop their soap in a prison full of desperate men.

  • junzo316junzo316 Member UncommonPosts: 1,712

    hehe....Interesting to see how people perceived it then, and now.  People's expectaions were WAY off.

This discussion has been closed.