1/4 of wow player just like the 2 posters above , no thanks Even in the face of truth , some are still completely blind with hate.
It has nothing to do with hate, but more to do with facts. Please lay it out so we can understand your point better. You have presented PR pieces as proof of data, which still does not answer any of the questions put forth.
There is no doubt that LOTRO is a successful product for Turbine. But, you have made it sound like this super smash hit, and this is quite far from the truth.
It is maybe as successful as EQ2 or CoH, but not a "smash", and the data that you do not have proves a lot of this.
Talk is one thing, but proof is much better.
If LOTRO could get a 1/4 of WoW's population, then it would not have WAR to worry about. But, the fact is, WAR will pull a lot of scrips away in my opinion. I just hope MoM is good enough to bring in more clientele. A long term business cannot rely on Founder lifetime subs alone.
Profitable launch? Maybe, but I doubt it... considering Midway still stated losses for publishing that game.
Wow , that is news right there! The source ?
Here is a quote for yah
""Following the most successful North American pre-order program in Midway's history, The Lord of the Rings Online is off to a great start," said Steve Allison, chief marketing officer, Midway. "As the positive reports and reviews continue to come in, gamers are settling into the game and experiencing Middle-earth as never before.""
Not like Midway are complete noobs with over 20+ years in the industry.
Midway's problems are eternal, not with publishing .
Again, the quote means nothing. Marketing spin. Numbers speak, and you provide nothing. I gave you a couple links with numbers that show it's not some smash hit, but instead a underwhelming performer... especially with a AAA IP attached. In fact, here is a quote from the VP of Codemasters about LoTRO:
"I think the goal [for LOTRO] would be over a million subscribers in the west," said Solari, speaking at the COG LiVE event in Warwick, UK, yesterday. "World of Warcraft is such a benchmark now, but if something's going to do it it's going to be a Lord of the Rings brand that lets people play in that environment and experience that content. It's got to have probably the best chance of competing with it."
Many lotro players don't log in 24/7/365 like many WoW players. I can log in to WoW, go to IF or Shatt and stand there and see the same people just standing around, or jumping up and down for 4 hours...they same people that were there the last time I logged in. I have no idea WTF they are doing. You don't see that in lotro. People log in, play, log out in general.
lotro doesn't appeal to the average indoctrinated WoW players. I've tried to introduce it to many brainwashed friends but all I ever get is "teh combat is too slow" "the quests have too many words" "where's teh phat lewtz from afk'ing in Arenas?" It's like getting children who have fingerpainted their entire lives to try using a brush.
As long as lotro continues to expand and add content, I'm happy with the current population if it means there aren't any like the ones I described above.
Reading comprehension ftl, when did I say a game had to be a smash hit ?
You never did, but you have used over inflated statements with zero proof like
"They made all development money back at launch with the top selling game on the NPD chart at launch."
How do you know they made their money back?
"A doom and Gloom game in this current market of 2008 wouldn't release a expansion, the economy is just to rough right now for any mistakes."
Yet development continues on DDO (which is not a success), Vanguard, Tabula Rasa. EQ2 which is known to have a smaller population, is getting another expansion within the next couple of months.
"Turbine is at the top of food chain right now becoming the most powerful mmo developer in the United States"
Purely opinion and speculation. Nothing proves this at all.
Again, it is not hate, or reading comprehension that is the issue, but posters who create fabricated information to prove their points. None of the above is proven data.
Profitable launch? Maybe, but I doubt it... considering Midway still stated losses for publishing that game.
Wow , that is news right there! The source ?
Here is a quote for yah
""Following the most successful North American pre-order program in Midway's history, The Lord of the Rings Online is off to a great start," said Steve Allison, chief marketing officer, Midway. "As the positive reports and reviews continue to come in, gamers are settling into the game and experiencing Middle-earth as never before.""
Not like Midway are complete noobs with over 20+ years in the industry.
Midway's problems are eternal, not with publishing .
Again, the quote means nothing. Marketing spin. Numbers speak, and you provide nothing. I gave you a couple links with numbers that show it's not some smash hit, but instead a underwhelming performer... especially with a AAA IP attached. In fact, here is a quote from the VP of Codemasters about LoTRO:
"I think the goal [for LOTRO] would be over a million subscribers in the west," said Solari, speaking at the COG LiVE event in Warwick, UK, yesterday. "World of Warcraft is such a benchmark now, but if something's going to do it it's going to be a Lord of the Rings brand that lets people play in that environment and experience that content. It's got to have probably the best chance of competing with it."
Too bad they aren't even close. and FYI, great reveiws does not mean great sales.
Reading comprehension ftl, when did I say a game had to be a smash hit ? Success is what it is, a game that is financial sound, has been marked well by the industry and has followed through with giving the player what a developer said they where going to do.
All your links have proven is your a troll, really . The link I shown was from Midway itself, but because it is positive , it has to be PR fluff (even if the NPD said "1# PC GAME" when it luanched lol, how many Midway games ever reached #1)...
but your link is the true link ? but yeah.. Your quote has so much more credibility... lololololololololololol, go fish flip floppers
Success with out 1/4 wow numbers is awesome and I'm proud to be apart of this game world
writing comprehension ftl. My links don't prove that I'm a troll. However, the links you fail to provide for anything that you say are "facts" prove that you offer nothing constructive to the conversation. Sounds like you are the troll, doesn't it?
What you provided from Midway IS PR fluff, I'm sorry you fail to see the difference. Also, I'm not sure why you do not see the difference between being #1 for a couple weeks and being in the top 10 for an entire year. You can be #1 in sales during a dry week of game releases, and still make it look like a gem... even though you've sold jack. 172k copies sold in a quarter for what you would call an amazing MMO that's critically acclaimed and #1 PC game is EXTREMELY poor, especially with subscription based software (you know what retention rate and customer churn are don't you?). This isn't an original IP, this is arguably the most well-known fantasy franchise in the west.
I've shown you numbers from the NPD, yet you fail to comment on them. I've also show you how the VP of Codemasters stated that "THE GOAL FOR LOTRO IS OVER 1 MILLION SUBSCRIBERS IN THE WEST"... guess what? They did'nt even come close to reaching that goal. Another failure. When companies perform poorly, they get the marketing machine rolling so people like you can buy into it... that's what their job is, and it works wonders.
Reading comprehension ftl, when did I say a game had to be a smash hit ?
You never did, but you have used over inflated statements with zero proof like
"They made all development money back at launch with the top selling game on the NPD chart at launch."
How do you know they made their money back?
"A doom and Gloom game in this current market of 2008 wouldn't release a expansion, the economy is just to rough right now for any mistakes."
Yet development continues on DDO (which is not a success), Vanguard, Tabula Rasa. EQ2 which is known to have a smaller population, is getting another expansion within the next couple of months.
"Turbine is at the top of food chain right now becoming the most powerful mmo developer in the United States"
Purely opinion and speculation. Nothing proves this at all.
Again, it is not hate, or reading comprehension that is the issue, but posters who create fabricated information to prove their points. None of the above is proven data.
But, at least you are happy.
It's a commercial success, deal with it! It isnt WoW and never will be but it turns a good profit.
And puhlease! You say "it's not hate". Come on mate. Be honest, you CANNOT stand the fact that LotRo is even mildly successful. It irks you to the ends of the earth. It's like LotRo has somehow personally wronged you.
Get over it, PLEASE find a game you can enjoy instead of constantly coming into this forum and trying to derail every positive thread about LotRo.
Originally posted by Yeebo That was actually a pretty interesting read, thanks for the link. Thinking back to open beta, I read the FAQ and also expected layered instancing to be used much more widely than it is in the game. Unlike you, I wasn't so opposed to it that I took up my torch and pitchfork. And after the beta I played the game long enough to know that they did little with it. My take is that they realized it would fragment the player base and abandoned it (save for subtle uses as mentioned above). There are some events coming up, such as the scouring of the shire, where they will have to apply it to particular zones. However I assume that will never be the bulk of the game. It's nice to see trolls and fanboys agree on something. I feel like should be singing a Christmas carol.
I'll join you in that Christmas carol... if I can bring my torch and pitchfork.
I always thought their idea for layered instancing was insane. They had the LOTR name - that was always going to be enough to give them an edge. Trying to do something as unusual as that was a stupid risk. As much of a LOTR fan as I am, that feature killed my interest in the game.
And staying on topic, isn't WoW just about the most vanilla game on the market? It has the very basics required for an mmo and not much more than that. We have to acknowledge that it's a well designed good quality product, but it is its lack of distinctive flavour that makes it so easily palatable to such a massive proportion of the mmo market. That doesn't make it a great game, but it does make it a very successful (i.e. profitable) one.
I don't follow every single mmo from inception to release, but LOTRO dropping layered-instancing is the only example I've seen a developer has made such a significant positive change at the last minute prior to release. Keeping quiet about it seems to almost entirely defeat the point of dropping it.
It's a commercial success, deal with it! It isnt WoW and never will be but it turns a good profit.
This is what we have been discussing through this thread. But, this is a blanket statement that you have not shown proof of. You make this statement as fact, but for this to happen, you should point to sources. How do YOU know it turns a good profit. How do you know it is a commercial success? According to the latest data (which I will gladly provide links for), Age of Conan was actually a larger success.
you CANNOT stand the fact that LotRo is even mildly successful.
I was throroughly disappointed in LOTRO, that is true, and still was the last time I tried to play, but, I could care less about that, and would prefer blanket statements of how much of a hit LOTRO is was backed up with actual facts.
Look at your image for example with "Failcom". To me this sounds like what you are blaming ME for.
I think YOU feel wronged by Funcom, so you need someone to take it out on is all. I would prefer the thread was not derailed with this is all.
My questions strictly ask the previous poster to provide his facts is all. Thanks
Rather than another four of five pages of "no you show me your source" I thought I'd dig around myself to see what I could find re LOTRO's subscription numbers. Some of these have been mentioned previously in this thread but I'm including everything I can find.
Codemasters Online Gaming set goal of 1 million subscribers
David Solari, COG's vice-president, made a prediction of 1 million + subscribers in the West.
I think the goal [for LOTRO] would be over a million subscribers in the west," said Solari, speaking at the COG LiVE event in Warwick, UK, yesterday. "World of Warcraft is such a benchmark now, but if something's going to do it it's going to be a Lord of the Rings brand that lets people play in that environment and experience that content. It's got to have probably the best chance of competing with it. (source)
Codemasters is LOTRO's European distributor.
Turbine's only statement on subscription data
The only data that Turbine have released related to subscriptions was a press release in August 07 which stated that it has an:
...estimated 4 million characters calling Middle-earth their home. (source)
Turbine's statement is vague, but this 4 million figure has been widely repoduced as meaning "4 million characters created" without any correction from Turbine.
Presently players can make 5 characters per server.
So while some have interpreted this figure to indicate that:
the game has attracted at least 800,000 subscribers in just four months (source)
that interpretation both assumes that every character created is attached to an active account and that players never create characters on multiple servers. Neither assumption is safe or even likely.
Being conservative, there were 7 servers at release. (source) No-one could seriously argue that players would have filled all 35 character slots (which would give us roughly 100K players). But given there are 7 classes and the tendency of players to try out both different classes and different servers I would think an estimate of around 5-10 characters per account wouldn't be unreasonable, which would equate to 400K to 800K people who tried the game, which is not the same thing as subscribers.
NPD Figures
In February 2008 NPD began tracking mmo subscriptions via survey of an online panel of 3 million gamers aged 13+ in North America. (source)
Data they've released this year ranks LOTRO third, after WoW and Runescape. (source)
Since the data isn't complete and relates only to North America, it is difficult to interpret the ranking, but I've tracked down subscription numbers (in some cases approximate) for other games on the list.
World of Warcraft - 10 million as published in Blizzard media release (source)
Final Fantasy XI - there has been no reliable data since before WoW's release in 04.
City of Heroes - 137,028 as published in NPCSoft financial reports (source)
mmogchart.com
This site tracks mmo subscriptions - or rather attempts to. Where subscription data is published, it is reproduced here. However, the remaining figures are guessed based on available information. This site puts LOTRO's current subscriptions at around 150-200K in August 2007.
Launched on April 24, 2007, LotrO has been a big success for Turbine, winning several awards and garnering many positive reviews. While exact subscriber numbers have never been officially released, in August 2007 Turbine claimed LotRO was the second largest MMORPG developed in North America. This leaves out games like RuneScape, Dofus, and EVE Online; essentially, Turbine was indicating that the game had more current subscribers than EQ or EQ II, but less than World of Warcraft. Based on this statement, I estimate that as of August 2007 LotRO had approximately 200,000 subscribers. Inside sources place the number of active subscribers at 150,000 as of December 2007. (source)
This figure isn't unreasonable given Turbine's release regarding 4 million characters. Assuming a 100% retention rate, mmogchart.com's estimate of 200K would have required players (on average) to create roughly 20 characters each. Assume a lower retention rate of say 50% and you're down to 10 characters each.
My Personal Conclusion
Turbine's unwillingness to release subscription data does tell us they're lower than they'd like, but they're not the only mmo to keep these numbers under their hat. Also, COG's pre-release statement of a goal of 1 million subscribers (just in the West) means that anything short of that could be cause for disappointment.
The only official figures release by Turbine suggest that the total number of players who played the game at any time in the first three months after release was somewhere between roughly 400k to 800k, making a reasonable and possibly conservative assumption that each player created between 5-10 characters.
It's highly unlikely that they achieved a 100% retention rate, so mmogchart.com's estimate of around 200k at that time was probably not far off. It's difficult to guess the effect of the free trial on subscriptions but since there were approximately 1 million players in the game's beta (source), it seems unlikely that 8 months later they'd pick up a great deal more interest this way.
A guess of between 200k to 400k subscribers seems reasonable given the available evidence.
Rather than another four of five pages of "no you show me your source" I thought I'd dig around myself to see what I could find re LOTRO's subscription numbers. Some of these have been mentioned previously in this thread but I'm including everything I can find. Codemasters Online Gaming set goal of 1 million subscribers David Solari, COG's vice-president, made a prediction of 1 million + subscribers in the West. I think the goal [for LOTRO] would be over a million subscribers in the west," said Solari, speaking at the COG LiVE event in Warwick, UK, yesterday. "World of Warcraft is such a benchmark now, but if something's going to do it it's going to be a Lord of the Rings brand that lets people play in that environment and experience that content. It's got to have probably the best chance of competing with it. (source) Codemasters is LOTRO's European distributor.
Turbine's only statement on subscription data The only data that Turbine have released related to subscriptions was a press release in August 07 which stated that it has an: ...estimated 4 million characters calling Middle-earth their home. (source) Turbine's statement is vague, but this 4 million figure has been widely repoduced as meaning "4 million characters created" without any correction from Turbine. Presently players can make 5 characters per server. So while some have interpreted this figure to indicate that: the game has attracted at least 800,000 subscribers in just four months (source) that interpretation both assumes that every character created is attached to an active account and that players never create characters on multiple servers. Neither assumption is safe or even likely. Being conservative, there were 7 servers at release. (source) No-one could seriously argue that players would have filled all 35 character slots (which would give us roughly 100K players). But given there are 7 classes and the tendency of players to try out both different classes and different servers I would think an estimate of around 5-10 characters per account wouldn't be unreasonable, which would equate to 400K to 800K people who tried the game, which is not the same thing as subscribers. NPD Figures In February 2008 NPD began tracking mmo subscriptions via survey of an online panel of 3 million gamers aged 13+ in North America. (source) Data they've released this year ranks LOTRO third, after WoW and Runescape. (source) Since the data isn't complete and relates only to North America, it is difficult to interpret the ranking, but I've tracked down subscription numbers (in some cases approximate) for other games on the list.
World of Warcraft - 10 million as published in Blizzard media release (source) Runescape - approx 1 million + (source) Lord of the Rings Online - ???? Final Fantasy XI - there has been no reliable data since before WoW's release in 04. City of Heroes - 137,028 as published in NPCSoft financial reports (source)
mmogchart.com This site tracks mmo subscriptions - or rather attempts to. Where subscription data is published, it is reproduced here. However, the remaining figures are guessed based on available information. This site puts LOTRO's current subscriptions at around 150-200K in August 2007. Launched on April 24, 2007, LotrO has been a big success for Turbine, winning several awards and garnering many positive reviews. While exact subscriber numbers have never been officially released, in August 2007 Turbine claimed LotRO was the second largest MMORPG developed in North America. This leaves out games like RuneScape, Dofus, and EVE Online; essentially, Turbine was indicating that the game had more current subscribers than EQ or EQ II, but less than World of Warcraft. Based on this statement, I estimate that as of August 2007 LotRO had approximately 200,000 subscribers. Inside sources place the number of active subscribers at 150,000 as of December 2007. (source) This figure isn't unreasonable given Turbine's release regarding 4 million characters. Assuming a 100% retention rate, mmogchart.com's estimate of 200K would have required players (on average) to create roughly 20 characters each. Assume a lower retention rate of say 50% and you're down to 10 characters each. My Personal Conclusion Turbine's unwillingness to release subscription data does tell us they're lower than they'd like, but they're not the only mmo to keep these numbers under their hat. Also, COG's pre-release statement of a goal of 1 million subscribers (just in the West) means that anything short of that could be cause for disappointment. The only official figures release by Turbine suggest that the total number of players who played the game at any time in the first three months after release was somewhere between roughly 400k to 800k, making a reasonable and possibly conservative assumption that each player created between 5-10 characters. It's highly unlikely that they achieved a 100% retention rate, so mmogchart.com's estimate of around 200k at that time was probably not far off. It's difficult to guess the effect of the free trial on subscriptions but since there were approximately 1 million players in the game's beta (source), it seems unlikely that 8 months later they'd pick up a great deal more interest this way. A guess of between 200k to 400k subscribers seems reasonable given the available evidence.
Good stuff. I would concur with this. This makes LOTRO a profitable game as well.
Great facts.
I think pushing anything above 300k is a little off. I think it is 200k active with maybe another 50-100 Lifetimers. We need to include the fact that these are not going to go towards LOTRO's bottom line. They are actually a load on LOTRO's profits. Their numbers will hurt Turbine in the long run, as this group will be worth nothing except for expansions only. I hope it is what Turbine wanted in the short term. It only makes me think their costs to run these servers must be quite minimal.
I think it probably is closer to the 200K mark, but there's so little by way of 'hard facts' that 400K is possible.
I've wondered about the lifetime subscriptions. I don't know anything about Turbine's development costs or finances in general, but if they had debt at release then the instant injection of cash from the lifetimers might have kept their heads above water.
You might be right about them ultimately losing money with those subscriptions. The folk most likely to have eventually paid that amount in regular subscription fees probably took that offer, so over time it'd be a net loss for Turbine. But...
... like the OP pointed out, mmos are more fun to play with bigger populations. If those lifetimers are now less likely to leave LOTRO, then that buoys the actual playing population and increases the likelihood of new subscriptions. Those lifetimers could be the equivalent of freebie players in mmos like AO or Runescape.
... like the OP pointed out, mmos are more fun to play with bigger populations. If those lifetimers are now less likely to leave LOTRO, then that buoys the actual playing population and increases the likelihood of new subscriptions. Those lifetimers could be the equivalent of freebie players in mmos like AO or Runescape.
Just because they are lifetimers, does not mean they play. I have many blogs I follow with "fans" of LOTRO who have either played AoC recently or are blogging about WAR now. These are bloggers who were part of the core group who reported on LOTRO (for example worked with Massively's website or Ten Ton Hammer). But, I guess we can look at it as not being a load on the servers as well.
With such a major IP, you would think they could have pulled more players from WoW, but it just did not happen. I still stand by the fact that I think PvP is the answer to bigger sales and populations, and WAR will contest to that fact.
Good stuff. I would concur with this. This makes LOTRO a profitable game as well.
Great facts.
I think pushing anything above 300k is a little off. I think it is 200k active with maybe another 50-100 Lifetimers. We need to include the fact that these are not going to go towards LOTRO's bottom line. They are actually a load on LOTRO's profits. Their numbers will hurt Turbine in the long run, as this group will be worth nothing except for expansions only. I hope it is what Turbine wanted in the short term. It only makes me think their costs to run these servers must be quite minimal.
Maybe they are Linux ..lol.
Anyways, thanks for that data. I LOVE data!
Cheers
50-100k lifetimers right? YOu also have to very much consider that lifetimers are also probably guaranteed to buy the expansions as well. And maybe even the collector's edition. So that helps alot too.
****************************** Brandywine Global LFF chan "/joinchannel glff"
Good stuff. I would concur with this. This makes LOTRO a profitable game as well.
Great facts.
I think pushing anything above 300k is a little off. I think it is 200k active with maybe another 50-100 Lifetimers. We need to include the fact that these are not going to go towards LOTRO's bottom line. They are actually a load on LOTRO's profits. Their numbers will hurt Turbine in the long run, as this group will be worth nothing except for expansions only. I hope it is what Turbine wanted in the short term. It only makes me think their costs to run these servers must be quite minimal.
Maybe they are Linux ..lol.
Anyways, thanks for that data. I LOVE data!
Cheers
50-100k lifetimers right? YOu also have to very much consider that lifetimers are also probably guaranteed to buy the expansions as well. And maybe even the collector's edition. So that helps alot too.
Yes...50-100k. And I agree that for sales purposes that the Lifetimers will buy CE as well. always a bigger bonus on the Publishers part...maybe not for Turbine (in so many words, Time Warner will get a nicer cut of that pie)
My worry is that long term the lifetime hurts Turbine for money flow. But, also, they have discussed new avenues of distribution (like an all download model for the expansion...which is a good idea monetarily)
Another avenue Turbine is pursuing is web based tools for the game. Now, this was announced for launch, then pulled with zero word (the features was a way to track your character online like EQ2players.com...), so this could become a pay feature (like EQ2 also) and could offer cash flow.
My concern is how the population will be affected if WAR turns out to be a good game (which it has been said it will be...)..
Good stuff. I would concur with this. This makes LOTRO a profitable game as well.
Great facts.
I think pushing anything above 300k is a little off. I think it is 200k active with maybe another 50-100 Lifetimers. We need to include the fact that these are not going to go towards LOTRO's bottom line. They are actually a load on LOTRO's profits. Their numbers will hurt Turbine in the long run, as this group will be worth nothing except for expansions only. I hope it is what Turbine wanted in the short term. It only makes me think their costs to run these servers must be quite minimal.
Maybe they are Linux ..lol.
Anyways, thanks for that data. I LOVE data!
Cheers
50-100k lifetimers right? YOu also have to very much consider that lifetimers are also probably guaranteed to buy the expansions as well. And maybe even the collector's edition. So that helps alot too.
Yes...50-100k. And I agree that for sales purposes that the Lifetimers will buy CE as well. always a bigger bonus on the Publishers part...maybe not for Turbine (in so many words, Time Warner will get a nicer cut of that pie)
My worry is that long term the lifetime hurts Turbine for money flow. But, also, they have discussed new avenues of distribution (like an all download model for the expansion...which is a good idea monetarily)
Another avenue Turbine is pursuing is web based tools for the game. Now, this was announced for launch, then pulled with zero word (the features was a way to track your character online like EQ2players.com...), so this could become a pay feature (like EQ2 also) and could offer cash flow.
My concern is how the population will be affected if WAR turns out to be a good game (which it has been said it will be...)..
One month to find out,...
50k lifers x $250(some bought it for $200 some for $300) = $12.5 million. $25 million if its 100k lifers. Not bad to infuse your coffers with up front.
The lifetime can be good for Turbine too...what the avg lifetime for a gamer in an MMO 6 mo. maybe? Takes about 20 mo. to break even or so. So the odds are probably in their favor more than not. Also lets say 50k lifers buy the expansion at $50...thats 2.5 million right there.
Yeah the D/L version for the expansion is great. Cheaper for the player and all that money goes to Turbine. They have also talked more recently about the web based tools, so it is still something they are looking into.
I don't think it will hurt too much. Two different styles of games. AoC didn't hurt LOTRO much at all (of course having problems didn't help). I bet it will really hit WoW hard though.
****************************** Brandywine Global LFF chan "/joinchannel glff"
Good stuff. I would concur with this. This makes LOTRO a profitable game as well.
Great facts.
I think pushing anything above 300k is a little off. I think it is 200k active with maybe another 50-100 Lifetimers. We need to include the fact that these are not going to go towards LOTRO's bottom line. They are actually a load on LOTRO's profits. Their numbers will hurt Turbine in the long run, as this group will be worth nothing except for expansions only. I hope it is what Turbine wanted in the short term. It only makes me think their costs to run these servers must be quite minimal.
Maybe they are Linux ..lol.
Anyways, thanks for that data. I LOVE data!
Cheers
50-100k lifetimers right? YOu also have to very much consider that lifetimers are also probably guaranteed to buy the expansions as well. And maybe even the collector's edition. So that helps alot too.
Yes...50-100k. And I agree that for sales purposes that the Lifetimers will buy CE as well. always a bigger bonus on the Publishers part...maybe not for Turbine (in so many words, Time Warner will get a nicer cut of that pie)
My worry is that long term the lifetime hurts Turbine for money flow. But, also, they have discussed new avenues of distribution (like an all download model for the expansion...which is a good idea monetarily)
Another avenue Turbine is pursuing is web based tools for the game. Now, this was announced for launch, then pulled with zero word (the features was a way to track your character online like EQ2players.com...), so this could become a pay feature (like EQ2 also) and could offer cash flow.
My concern is how the population will be affected if WAR turns out to be a good game (which it has been said it will be...)..
One month to find out,...
50k lifers x $250(some bought it for $200 some for $300) = $12.5 million. $25 million if its 100k lifers. Not bad to infuse your coffers with up front.
The lifetime can be good for Turbine too...what the avg lifetime for a gamer in an MMO 6 mo. maybe? Takes about 20 mo. to break even or so. So the odds are probably in their favor more than not. Also lets say 50k lifers buy the expansion at $50...thats 2.5 million right there.
Yeah the D/L version for the expansion is great. Cheaper for the player and all that money goes to Turbine. They have also talked more recently about the web based tools, so it is still something they are looking into.
I don't think it will hurt too much. Two different styles of games. AoC didn't hurt LOTRO much at all (of course having problems didn't help). I bet it will really hit WoW hard though.
While MMO players may be very fickle, a lifetime sub isn't something that companies normally do... in fact, besides hellgate london (tanked), I can't really think about any other games that have done lifetime subs. I think, when presented with the lifetime subs, the die hard LoTR fans are going to be the ones that purchased them, or the people who KNOW they are going to be playing this for a long time (think mature casual gamers).
Short attention-spanned gamers and younger people are less likely to drop 200-300 dollars at once. I think it would be a very bad thing if 50% of their estimated player base are lifetimers, I bet it's closer to 10% (maybe around 20k) of the player base who bought the lifetime option. You can talk all you want about loading up the coffers early on, but how much did they really have to pay to have EXCLUSIVE MMO rights with the LoTR IP? Probably a shitload of money. Also, it will be somewhat disappointing if Turbine decides to sell the expansion for $50... I'm sure you'll hear a lot of complaints about it if that is the case... especially since they planned on releasing a yearly expansion.
WAR will have an effect on the PvMP players in LoTRO, which probably aren't much to be honest. I mean, all you have to do is read the official monster play forums to see people are generally disappointed and bored with it. As it's been said before though, this game doesn't focus on PvP at all, which may end up being a bad thing in the end. AoC probably didn't have an effect on LoTRO because it was easy to tell that AoC was garbage in the first 30 days.
It's QUALITY over QUANTITY. Seriously. Why would LotRO want to supersize it's McWOW population? Just wondering...
It doesn't want to. It's the last straw left to attack LOTRO, actually.
DB
{ Mod Edit }
Wrong, if you would have read the thread you would have saw this quote:
"I think the goal [for LOTRO] would be over a million subscribers in the west," said Solari, speaking at the COG LiVE event in Warwick, UK, yesterday. "World of Warcraft is such a benchmark now, but if something's going to do it it's going to be a Lord of the Rings brand that lets people play in that environment and experience that content. It's got to have probably the best chance of competing with it."
Please DB, enlighten us "trolls"... just because we have negative things to say about the game doesn't make our points any less valuable than yours. This was a debate about population and success... not whether or not it's a critically-acclaimed game.
Good stuff. I would concur with this. This makes LOTRO a profitable game as well.
Great facts.
I think pushing anything above 300k is a little off. I think it is 200k active with maybe another 50-100 Lifetimers. We need to include the fact that these are not going to go towards LOTRO's bottom line. They are actually a load on LOTRO's profits. Their numbers will hurt Turbine in the long run, as this group will be worth nothing except for expansions only. I hope it is what Turbine wanted in the short term. It only makes me think their costs to run these servers must be quite minimal.
Maybe they are Linux ..lol.
Anyways, thanks for that data. I LOVE data!
Cheers
50-100k lifetimers right? YOu also have to very much consider that lifetimers are also probably guaranteed to buy the expansions as well. And maybe even the collector's edition. So that helps alot too.
Yes...50-100k. And I agree that for sales purposes that the Lifetimers will buy CE as well. always a bigger bonus on the Publishers part...maybe not for Turbine (in so many words, Time Warner will get a nicer cut of that pie)
My worry is that long term the lifetime hurts Turbine for money flow. But, also, they have discussed new avenues of distribution (like an all download model for the expansion...which is a good idea monetarily)
Another avenue Turbine is pursuing is web based tools for the game. Now, this was announced for launch, then pulled with zero word (the features was a way to track your character online like EQ2players.com...), so this could become a pay feature (like EQ2 also) and could offer cash flow.
My concern is how the population will be affected if WAR turns out to be a good game (which it has been said it will be...)..
One month to find out,...
50k lifers x $250(some bought it for $200 some for $300) = $12.5 million. $25 million if its 100k lifers. Not bad to infuse your coffers with up front.
The lifetime can be good for Turbine too...what the avg lifetime for a gamer in an MMO 6 mo. maybe? Takes about 20 mo. to break even or so. So the odds are probably in their favor more than not. Also lets say 50k lifers buy the expansion at $50...thats 2.5 million right there.
Yeah the D/L version for the expansion is great. Cheaper for the player and all that money goes to Turbine. They have also talked more recently about the web based tools, so it is still something they are looking into.
I don't think it will hurt too much. Two different styles of games. AoC didn't hurt LOTRO much at all (of course having problems didn't help). I bet it will really hit WoW hard though.
While MMO players may be very fickle, a lifetime sub isn't something that companies normally do... in fact, besides hellgate london (tanked), I can't really think about any other games that have done lifetime subs. I think, when presented with the lifetime subs, the die hard LoTR fans are going to be the ones that purchased them, or the people who KNOW they are going to be playing this for a long time (think mature casual gamers).
Short attention-spanned gamers and younger people are less likely to drop 200-300 dollars at once. I think it would be a very bad thing if 50% of their estimated player base are lifetimers, I bet it's closer to 10% (maybe around 20k) of the player base who bought the lifetime option. You can talk all you want about loading up the coffers early on, but how much did they really have to pay to have EXCLUSIVE MMO rights with the LoTR IP? Probably a shitload of money. Also, it will be somewhat disappointing if Turbine decides to sell the expansion for $50... I'm sure you'll hear a lot of complaints about it if that is the case... especially since they planned on releasing a yearly expansion.
WAR will have an effect on the PvMP players in LoTRO, which probably aren't much to be honest. I mean, all you have to do is read the official monster play forums to see people are generally disappointed and bored with it. As it's been said before though, this game doesn't focus on PvP at all, which may end up being a bad thing in the end. AoC probably didn't have an effect on LoTRO because it was easy to tell that AoC was garbage in the first 30 days.
I was thinking 50 for the CE...the retail version of the expansion also comes with the original game as well. So thats not bad. Great for new gamers. But here will be a d/l option that will be cheaper too.
****************************** Brandywine Global LFF chan "/joinchannel glff"
Comments
"Freedom is just another name for nothing left to lose" - Janis Joplin
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It has nothing to do with hate, but more to do with facts. Please lay it out so we can understand your point better. You have presented PR pieces as proof of data, which still does not answer any of the questions put forth.
There is no doubt that LOTRO is a successful product for Turbine. But, you have made it sound like this super smash hit, and this is quite far from the truth.
It is maybe as successful as EQ2 or CoH, but not a "smash", and the data that you do not have proves a lot of this.
Talk is one thing, but proof is much better.
If LOTRO could get a 1/4 of WoW's population, then it would not have WAR to worry about. But, the fact is, WAR will pull a lot of scrips away in my opinion. I just hope MoM is good enough to bring in more clientele. A long term business cannot rely on Founder lifetime subs alone.
{ Mod Edit }
"Freedom is just another name for nothing left to lose" - Janis Joplin
.jpg)
Wow , that is news right there! The source ?
Here is a quote for yah
""Following the most successful North American pre-order program in Midway's history, The Lord of the Rings Online is off to a great start," said Steve Allison, chief marketing officer, Midway. "As the positive reports and reviews continue to come in, gamers are settling into the game and experiencing Middle-earth as never before.""
Not like Midway are complete noobs with over 20+ years in the industry.
Midway's problems are eternal, not with publishing .
Again, the quote means nothing. Marketing spin. Numbers speak, and you provide nothing. I gave you a couple links with numbers that show it's not some smash hit, but instead a underwhelming performer... especially with a AAA IP attached. In fact, here is a quote from the VP of Codemasters about LoTRO:
"I think the goal [for LOTRO] would be over a million subscribers in the west," said Solari, speaking at the COG LiVE event in Warwick, UK, yesterday. "World of Warcraft is such a benchmark now, but if something's going to do it it's going to be a Lord of the Rings brand that lets people play in that environment and experience that content. It's got to have probably the best chance of competing with it."
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/codemasters-aims-for-million-with-lotr-online
Too bad they aren't even close. and FYI, great reveiws does not mean great sales.
"Freedom is just another name for nothing left to lose" - Janis Joplin
.jpg)
Many lotro players don't log in 24/7/365 like many WoW players. I can log in to WoW, go to IF or Shatt and stand there and see the same people just standing around, or jumping up and down for 4 hours...they same people that were there the last time I logged in. I have no idea WTF they are doing. You don't see that in lotro. People log in, play, log out in general.
lotro doesn't appeal to the average indoctrinated WoW players. I've tried to introduce it to many brainwashed friends but all I ever get is "teh combat is too slow" "the quests have too many words" "where's teh phat lewtz from afk'ing in Arenas?" It's like getting children who have fingerpainted their entire lives to try using a brush.
As long as lotro continues to expand and add content, I'm happy with the current population if it means there aren't any like the ones I described above.
Reading comprehension ftl, when did I say a game had to be a smash hit ?
You never did, but you have used over inflated statements with zero proof like
"They made all development money back at launch with the top selling game on the NPD chart at launch."
How do you know they made their money back?
"A doom and Gloom game in this current market of 2008 wouldn't release a expansion, the economy is just to rough right now for any mistakes."
Yet development continues on DDO (which is not a success), Vanguard, Tabula Rasa. EQ2 which is known to have a smaller population, is getting another expansion within the next couple of months.
"Turbine is at the top of food chain right now becoming the most powerful mmo developer in the United States"
Purely opinion and speculation. Nothing proves this at all.
Again, it is not hate, or reading comprehension that is the issue, but posters who create fabricated information to prove their points. None of the above is proven data.
But, at least you are happy.
Wow , that is news right there! The source ?
Here is a quote for yah
""Following the most successful North American pre-order program in Midway's history, The Lord of the Rings Online is off to a great start," said Steve Allison, chief marketing officer, Midway. "As the positive reports and reviews continue to come in, gamers are settling into the game and experiencing Middle-earth as never before.""
Not like Midway are complete noobs with over 20+ years in the industry.
Midway's problems are eternal, not with publishing .
Again, the quote means nothing. Marketing spin. Numbers speak, and you provide nothing. I gave you a couple links with numbers that show it's not some smash hit, but instead a underwhelming performer... especially with a AAA IP attached. In fact, here is a quote from the VP of Codemasters about LoTRO:
"I think the goal [for LOTRO] would be over a million subscribers in the west," said Solari, speaking at the COG LiVE event in Warwick, UK, yesterday. "World of Warcraft is such a benchmark now, but if something's going to do it it's going to be a Lord of the Rings brand that lets people play in that environment and experience that content. It's got to have probably the best chance of competing with it."
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/codemasters-aims-for-million-with-lotr-online
Too bad they aren't even close. and FYI, great reveiws does not mean great sales.
Reading comprehension ftl, when did I say a game had to be a smash hit ? Success is what it is, a game that is financial sound, has been marked well by the industry and has followed through with giving the player what a developer said they where going to do.
All your links have proven is your a troll, really . The link I shown was from Midway itself, but because it is positive , it has to be PR fluff (even if the NPD said "1# PC GAME" when it luanched lol, how many Midway games ever reached #1)...
but your link is the true link ? but yeah.. Your quote has so much more credibility... lololololololololololol, go fish flip floppers
Success with out 1/4 wow numbers is awesome and I'm proud to be apart of this game world
writing comprehension ftl. My links don't prove that I'm a troll. However, the links you fail to provide for anything that you say are "facts" prove that you offer nothing constructive to the conversation. Sounds like you are the troll, doesn't it?
What you provided from Midway IS PR fluff, I'm sorry you fail to see the difference. Also, I'm not sure why you do not see the difference between being #1 for a couple weeks and being in the top 10 for an entire year. You can be #1 in sales during a dry week of game releases, and still make it look like a gem... even though you've sold jack. 172k copies sold in a quarter for what you would call an amazing MMO that's critically acclaimed and #1 PC game is EXTREMELY poor, especially with subscription based software (you know what retention rate and customer churn are don't you?). This isn't an original IP, this is arguably the most well-known fantasy franchise in the west.
I've shown you numbers from the NPD, yet you fail to comment on them. I've also show you how the VP of Codemasters stated that "THE GOAL FOR LOTRO IS OVER 1 MILLION SUBSCRIBERS IN THE WEST"... guess what? They did'nt even come close to reaching that goal. Another failure. When companies perform poorly, they get the marketing machine rolling so people like you can buy into it... that's what their job is, and it works wonders.
Population is plenty big...
Reading comprehension ftl, when did I say a game had to be a smash hit ?
You never did, but you have used over inflated statements with zero proof like
"They made all development money back at launch with the top selling game on the NPD chart at launch."
How do you know they made their money back?
"A doom and Gloom game in this current market of 2008 wouldn't release a expansion, the economy is just to rough right now for any mistakes."
Yet development continues on DDO (which is not a success), Vanguard, Tabula Rasa. EQ2 which is known to have a smaller population, is getting another expansion within the next couple of months.
"Turbine is at the top of food chain right now becoming the most powerful mmo developer in the United States"
Purely opinion and speculation. Nothing proves this at all.
Again, it is not hate, or reading comprehension that is the issue, but posters who create fabricated information to prove their points. None of the above is proven data.
But, at least you are happy.
It's a commercial success, deal with it! It isnt WoW and never will be but it turns a good profit.
And puhlease! You say "it's not hate". Come on mate. Be honest, you CANNOT stand the fact that LotRo is even mildly successful. It irks you to the ends of the earth. It's like LotRo has somehow personally wronged you.
Get over it, PLEASE find a game you can enjoy instead of constantly coming into this forum and trying to derail every positive thread about LotRo.
Tx
S
Please keep your arguments and posts on topic, and argue the ideas and topics of the thread instead of attacking other users.
Thank you for your cooperation.
TRD
I'll join you in that Christmas carol... if I can bring my torch and pitchfork.
I always thought their idea for layered instancing was insane. They had the LOTR name - that was always going to be enough to give them an edge. Trying to do something as unusual as that was a stupid risk. As much of a LOTR fan as I am, that feature killed my interest in the game.
And staying on topic, isn't WoW just about the most vanilla game on the market? It has the very basics required for an mmo and not much more than that. We have to acknowledge that it's a well designed good quality product, but it is its lack of distinctive flavour that makes it so easily palatable to such a massive proportion of the mmo market. That doesn't make it a great game, but it does make it a very successful (i.e. profitable) one.
I don't follow every single mmo from inception to release, but LOTRO dropping layered-instancing is the only example I've seen a developer has made such a significant positive change at the last minute prior to release. Keeping quiet about it seems to almost entirely defeat the point of dropping it.
It's a commercial success, deal with it! It isnt WoW and never will be but it turns a good profit.
This is what we have been discussing through this thread. But, this is a blanket statement that you have not shown proof of. You make this statement as fact, but for this to happen, you should point to sources. How do YOU know it turns a good profit. How do you know it is a commercial success? According to the latest data (which I will gladly provide links for), Age of Conan was actually a larger success.
you CANNOT stand the fact that LotRo is even mildly successful.
I was throroughly disappointed in LOTRO, that is true, and still was the last time I tried to play, but, I could care less about that, and would prefer blanket statements of how much of a hit LOTRO is was backed up with actual facts.
Look at your image for example with "Failcom". To me this sounds like what you are blaming ME for.
I think YOU feel wronged by Funcom, so you need someone to take it out on is all. I would prefer the thread was not derailed with this is all.
Rather than another four of five pages of "no you show me your source" I thought I'd dig around myself to see what I could find re LOTRO's subscription numbers. Some of these have been mentioned previously in this thread but I'm including everything I can find.
Codemasters Online Gaming set goal of 1 million subscribers
David Solari, COG's vice-president, made a prediction of 1 million + subscribers in the West.
I think the goal [for LOTRO] would be over a million subscribers in the west," said Solari, speaking at the COG LiVE event in Warwick, UK, yesterday. "World of Warcraft is such a benchmark now, but if something's going to do it it's going to be a Lord of the Rings brand that lets people play in that environment and experience that content. It's got to have probably the best chance of competing with it. (source)
Codemasters is LOTRO's European distributor.
Turbine's only statement on subscription data
The only data that Turbine have released related to subscriptions was a press release in August 07 which stated that it has an:
...estimated 4 million characters calling Middle-earth their home. (source)
Turbine's statement is vague, but this 4 million figure has been widely repoduced as meaning "4 million characters created" without any correction from Turbine.
Presently players can make 5 characters per server.
So while some have interpreted this figure to indicate that:
the game has attracted at least 800,000 subscribers in just four months (source)
that interpretation both assumes that every character created is attached to an active account and that players never create characters on multiple servers. Neither assumption is safe or even likely.
Being conservative, there were 7 servers at release. (source) No-one could seriously argue that players would have filled all 35 character slots (which would give us roughly 100K players). But given there are 7 classes and the tendency of players to try out both different classes and different servers I would think an estimate of around 5-10 characters per account wouldn't be unreasonable, which would equate to 400K to 800K people who tried the game, which is not the same thing as subscribers.
NPD Figures
In February 2008 NPD began tracking mmo subscriptions via survey of an online panel of 3 million gamers aged 13+ in North America. (source)
Data they've released this year ranks LOTRO third, after WoW and Runescape. (source)
Since the data isn't complete and relates only to North America, it is difficult to interpret the ranking, but I've tracked down subscription numbers (in some cases approximate) for other games on the list.
mmogchart.com
This site tracks mmo subscriptions - or rather attempts to. Where subscription data is published, it is reproduced here. However, the remaining figures are guessed based on available information. This site puts LOTRO's current subscriptions at around 150-200K in August 2007.
Launched on April 24, 2007, LotrO has been a big success for Turbine, winning several awards and garnering many positive reviews. While exact subscriber numbers have never been officially released, in August 2007 Turbine claimed LotRO was the second largest MMORPG developed in North America. This leaves out games like RuneScape, Dofus, and EVE Online; essentially, Turbine was indicating that the game had more current subscribers than EQ or EQ II, but less than World of Warcraft. Based on this statement, I estimate that as of August 2007 LotRO had approximately 200,000 subscribers. Inside sources place the number of active subscribers at 150,000 as of December 2007. (source)
This figure isn't unreasonable given Turbine's release regarding 4 million characters. Assuming a 100% retention rate, mmogchart.com's estimate of 200K would have required players (on average) to create roughly 20 characters each. Assume a lower retention rate of say 50% and you're down to 10 characters each.
My Personal Conclusion
Turbine's unwillingness to release subscription data does tell us they're lower than they'd like, but they're not the only mmo to keep these numbers under their hat. Also, COG's pre-release statement of a goal of 1 million subscribers (just in the West) means that anything short of that could be cause for disappointment.
The only official figures release by Turbine suggest that the total number of players who played the game at any time in the first three months after release was somewhere between roughly 400k to 800k, making a reasonable and possibly conservative assumption that each player created between 5-10 characters.
It's highly unlikely that they achieved a 100% retention rate, so mmogchart.com's estimate of around 200k at that time was probably not far off. It's difficult to guess the effect of the free trial on subscriptions but since there were approximately 1 million players in the game's beta (source), it seems unlikely that 8 months later they'd pick up a great deal more interest this way.
A guess of between 200k to 400k subscribers seems reasonable given the available evidence.
Good stuff. I would concur with this. This makes LOTRO a profitable game as well.
Great facts.
I think pushing anything above 300k is a little off. I think it is 200k active with maybe another 50-100 Lifetimers. We need to include the fact that these are not going to go towards LOTRO's bottom line. They are actually a load on LOTRO's profits. Their numbers will hurt Turbine in the long run, as this group will be worth nothing except for expansions only. I hope it is what Turbine wanted in the short term. It only makes me think their costs to run these servers must be quite minimal.
Maybe they are Linux ..lol.
Anyways, thanks for that data. I LOVE data!
Cheers
I think it probably is closer to the 200K mark, but there's so little by way of 'hard facts' that 400K is possible.
I've wondered about the lifetime subscriptions. I don't know anything about Turbine's development costs or finances in general, but if they had debt at release then the instant injection of cash from the lifetimers might have kept their heads above water.
You might be right about them ultimately losing money with those subscriptions. The folk most likely to have eventually paid that amount in regular subscription fees probably took that offer, so over time it'd be a net loss for Turbine. But...
... like the OP pointed out, mmos are more fun to play with bigger populations. If those lifetimers are now less likely to leave LOTRO, then that buoys the actual playing population and increases the likelihood of new subscriptions. Those lifetimers could be the equivalent of freebie players in mmos like AO or Runescape.
It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out.
Just because they are lifetimers, does not mean they play. I have many blogs I follow with "fans" of LOTRO who have either played AoC recently or are blogging about WAR now. These are bloggers who were part of the core group who reported on LOTRO (for example worked with Massively's website or Ten Ton Hammer). But, I guess we can look at it as not being a load on the servers as well.
With such a major IP, you would think they could have pulled more players from WoW, but it just did not happen. I still stand by the fact that I think PvP is the answer to bigger sales and populations, and WAR will contest to that fact.
**Waits patiently for September for the scoop..
Good stuff. I would concur with this. This makes LOTRO a profitable game as well.
Great facts.
I think pushing anything above 300k is a little off. I think it is 200k active with maybe another 50-100 Lifetimers. We need to include the fact that these are not going to go towards LOTRO's bottom line. They are actually a load on LOTRO's profits. Their numbers will hurt Turbine in the long run, as this group will be worth nothing except for expansions only. I hope it is what Turbine wanted in the short term. It only makes me think their costs to run these servers must be quite minimal.
Maybe they are Linux ..lol.
Anyways, thanks for that data. I LOVE data!
Cheers
50-100k lifetimers right? YOu also have to very much consider that lifetimers are also probably guaranteed to buy the expansions as well. And maybe even the collector's edition. So that helps alot too.
******************************
Brandywine Global LFF chan "/joinchannel glff"
Good stuff. I would concur with this. This makes LOTRO a profitable game as well.
Great facts.
I think pushing anything above 300k is a little off. I think it is 200k active with maybe another 50-100 Lifetimers. We need to include the fact that these are not going to go towards LOTRO's bottom line. They are actually a load on LOTRO's profits. Their numbers will hurt Turbine in the long run, as this group will be worth nothing except for expansions only. I hope it is what Turbine wanted in the short term. It only makes me think their costs to run these servers must be quite minimal.
Maybe they are Linux ..lol.
Anyways, thanks for that data. I LOVE data!
Cheers
50-100k lifetimers right? YOu also have to very much consider that lifetimers are also probably guaranteed to buy the expansions as well. And maybe even the collector's edition. So that helps alot too.
Yes...50-100k. And I agree that for sales purposes that the Lifetimers will buy CE as well. always a bigger bonus on the Publishers part...maybe not for Turbine (in so many words, Time Warner will get a nicer cut of that pie)
My worry is that long term the lifetime hurts Turbine for money flow. But, also, they have discussed new avenues of distribution (like an all download model for the expansion...which is a good idea monetarily)
Another avenue Turbine is pursuing is web based tools for the game. Now, this was announced for launch, then pulled with zero word (the features was a way to track your character online like EQ2players.com...), so this could become a pay feature (like EQ2 also) and could offer cash flow.
My concern is how the population will be affected if WAR turns out to be a good game (which it has been said it will be...)..
One month to find out,...
Good stuff. I would concur with this. This makes LOTRO a profitable game as well.
Great facts.
I think pushing anything above 300k is a little off. I think it is 200k active with maybe another 50-100 Lifetimers. We need to include the fact that these are not going to go towards LOTRO's bottom line. They are actually a load on LOTRO's profits. Their numbers will hurt Turbine in the long run, as this group will be worth nothing except for expansions only. I hope it is what Turbine wanted in the short term. It only makes me think their costs to run these servers must be quite minimal.
Maybe they are Linux ..lol.
Anyways, thanks for that data. I LOVE data!
Cheers
50-100k lifetimers right? YOu also have to very much consider that lifetimers are also probably guaranteed to buy the expansions as well. And maybe even the collector's edition. So that helps alot too.
Yes...50-100k. And I agree that for sales purposes that the Lifetimers will buy CE as well. always a bigger bonus on the Publishers part...maybe not for Turbine (in so many words, Time Warner will get a nicer cut of that pie)
My worry is that long term the lifetime hurts Turbine for money flow. But, also, they have discussed new avenues of distribution (like an all download model for the expansion...which is a good idea monetarily)
Another avenue Turbine is pursuing is web based tools for the game. Now, this was announced for launch, then pulled with zero word (the features was a way to track your character online like EQ2players.com...), so this could become a pay feature (like EQ2 also) and could offer cash flow.
My concern is how the population will be affected if WAR turns out to be a good game (which it has been said it will be...)..
One month to find out,...
50k lifers x $250(some bought it for $200 some for $300) = $12.5 million. $25 million if its 100k lifers. Not bad to infuse your coffers with up front.
The lifetime can be good for Turbine too...what the avg lifetime for a gamer in an MMO 6 mo. maybe? Takes about 20 mo. to break even or so. So the odds are probably in their favor more than not. Also lets say 50k lifers buy the expansion at $50...thats 2.5 million right there.
Yeah the D/L version for the expansion is great. Cheaper for the player and all that money goes to Turbine. They have also talked more recently about the web based tools, so it is still something they are looking into.
I don't think it will hurt too much. Two different styles of games. AoC didn't hurt LOTRO much at all (of course having problems didn't help). I bet it will really hit WoW hard though.
******************************
Brandywine Global LFF chan "/joinchannel glff"
It's QUALITY over QUANTITY.
Seriously. Why would LotRO want to supersize it's McWOW population?
Just wondering...
It doesn't want to. It's the last straw left to attack LOTRO, actually.
DB
{ Mod Edit }
Denial makes one look a lot dumber than he/she actually is.
Good stuff. I would concur with this. This makes LOTRO a profitable game as well.
Great facts.
I think pushing anything above 300k is a little off. I think it is 200k active with maybe another 50-100 Lifetimers. We need to include the fact that these are not going to go towards LOTRO's bottom line. They are actually a load on LOTRO's profits. Their numbers will hurt Turbine in the long run, as this group will be worth nothing except for expansions only. I hope it is what Turbine wanted in the short term. It only makes me think their costs to run these servers must be quite minimal.
Maybe they are Linux ..lol.
Anyways, thanks for that data. I LOVE data!
Cheers
50-100k lifetimers right? YOu also have to very much consider that lifetimers are also probably guaranteed to buy the expansions as well. And maybe even the collector's edition. So that helps alot too.
Yes...50-100k. And I agree that for sales purposes that the Lifetimers will buy CE as well. always a bigger bonus on the Publishers part...maybe not for Turbine (in so many words, Time Warner will get a nicer cut of that pie)
My worry is that long term the lifetime hurts Turbine for money flow. But, also, they have discussed new avenues of distribution (like an all download model for the expansion...which is a good idea monetarily)
Another avenue Turbine is pursuing is web based tools for the game. Now, this was announced for launch, then pulled with zero word (the features was a way to track your character online like EQ2players.com...), so this could become a pay feature (like EQ2 also) and could offer cash flow.
My concern is how the population will be affected if WAR turns out to be a good game (which it has been said it will be...)..
One month to find out,...
50k lifers x $250(some bought it for $200 some for $300) = $12.5 million. $25 million if its 100k lifers. Not bad to infuse your coffers with up front.
The lifetime can be good for Turbine too...what the avg lifetime for a gamer in an MMO 6 mo. maybe? Takes about 20 mo. to break even or so. So the odds are probably in their favor more than not. Also lets say 50k lifers buy the expansion at $50...thats 2.5 million right there.
Yeah the D/L version for the expansion is great. Cheaper for the player and all that money goes to Turbine. They have also talked more recently about the web based tools, so it is still something they are looking into.
I don't think it will hurt too much. Two different styles of games. AoC didn't hurt LOTRO much at all (of course having problems didn't help). I bet it will really hit WoW hard though.
While MMO players may be very fickle, a lifetime sub isn't something that companies normally do... in fact, besides hellgate london (tanked), I can't really think about any other games that have done lifetime subs. I think, when presented with the lifetime subs, the die hard LoTR fans are going to be the ones that purchased them, or the people who KNOW they are going to be playing this for a long time (think mature casual gamers).
Short attention-spanned gamers and younger people are less likely to drop 200-300 dollars at once. I think it would be a very bad thing if 50% of their estimated player base are lifetimers, I bet it's closer to 10% (maybe around 20k) of the player base who bought the lifetime option. You can talk all you want about loading up the coffers early on, but how much did they really have to pay to have EXCLUSIVE MMO rights with the LoTR IP? Probably a shitload of money. Also, it will be somewhat disappointing if Turbine decides to sell the expansion for $50... I'm sure you'll hear a lot of complaints about it if that is the case... especially since they planned on releasing a yearly expansion.
WAR will have an effect on the PvMP players in LoTRO, which probably aren't much to be honest. I mean, all you have to do is read the official monster play forums to see people are generally disappointed and bored with it. As it's been said before though, this game doesn't focus on PvP at all, which may end up being a bad thing in the end. AoC probably didn't have an effect on LoTRO because it was easy to tell that AoC was garbage in the first 30 days.
It doesn't want to. It's the last straw left to attack LOTRO, actually.
DB
{ Mod Edit }
Wrong, if you would have read the thread you would have saw this quote:
"I think the goal [for LOTRO] would be over a million subscribers in the west," said Solari, speaking at the COG LiVE event in Warwick, UK, yesterday. "World of Warcraft is such a benchmark now, but if something's going to do it it's going to be a Lord of the Rings brand that lets people play in that environment and experience that content. It's got to have probably the best chance of competing with it."
Please DB, enlighten us "trolls"... just because we have negative things to say about the game doesn't make our points any less valuable than yours. This was a debate about population and success... not whether or not it's a critically-acclaimed game.
Good stuff. I would concur with this. This makes LOTRO a profitable game as well.
Great facts.
I think pushing anything above 300k is a little off. I think it is 200k active with maybe another 50-100 Lifetimers. We need to include the fact that these are not going to go towards LOTRO's bottom line. They are actually a load on LOTRO's profits. Their numbers will hurt Turbine in the long run, as this group will be worth nothing except for expansions only. I hope it is what Turbine wanted in the short term. It only makes me think their costs to run these servers must be quite minimal.
Maybe they are Linux ..lol.
Anyways, thanks for that data. I LOVE data!
Cheers
50-100k lifetimers right? YOu also have to very much consider that lifetimers are also probably guaranteed to buy the expansions as well. And maybe even the collector's edition. So that helps alot too.
Yes...50-100k. And I agree that for sales purposes that the Lifetimers will buy CE as well. always a bigger bonus on the Publishers part...maybe not for Turbine (in so many words, Time Warner will get a nicer cut of that pie)
My worry is that long term the lifetime hurts Turbine for money flow. But, also, they have discussed new avenues of distribution (like an all download model for the expansion...which is a good idea monetarily)
Another avenue Turbine is pursuing is web based tools for the game. Now, this was announced for launch, then pulled with zero word (the features was a way to track your character online like EQ2players.com...), so this could become a pay feature (like EQ2 also) and could offer cash flow.
My concern is how the population will be affected if WAR turns out to be a good game (which it has been said it will be...)..
One month to find out,...
50k lifers x $250(some bought it for $200 some for $300) = $12.5 million. $25 million if its 100k lifers. Not bad to infuse your coffers with up front.
The lifetime can be good for Turbine too...what the avg lifetime for a gamer in an MMO 6 mo. maybe? Takes about 20 mo. to break even or so. So the odds are probably in their favor more than not. Also lets say 50k lifers buy the expansion at $50...thats 2.5 million right there.
Yeah the D/L version for the expansion is great. Cheaper for the player and all that money goes to Turbine. They have also talked more recently about the web based tools, so it is still something they are looking into.
I don't think it will hurt too much. Two different styles of games. AoC didn't hurt LOTRO much at all (of course having problems didn't help). I bet it will really hit WoW hard though.
While MMO players may be very fickle, a lifetime sub isn't something that companies normally do... in fact, besides hellgate london (tanked), I can't really think about any other games that have done lifetime subs. I think, when presented with the lifetime subs, the die hard LoTR fans are going to be the ones that purchased them, or the people who KNOW they are going to be playing this for a long time (think mature casual gamers).
Short attention-spanned gamers and younger people are less likely to drop 200-300 dollars at once. I think it would be a very bad thing if 50% of their estimated player base are lifetimers, I bet it's closer to 10% (maybe around 20k) of the player base who bought the lifetime option. You can talk all you want about loading up the coffers early on, but how much did they really have to pay to have EXCLUSIVE MMO rights with the LoTR IP? Probably a shitload of money. Also, it will be somewhat disappointing if Turbine decides to sell the expansion for $50... I'm sure you'll hear a lot of complaints about it if that is the case... especially since they planned on releasing a yearly expansion.
WAR will have an effect on the PvMP players in LoTRO, which probably aren't much to be honest. I mean, all you have to do is read the official monster play forums to see people are generally disappointed and bored with it. As it's been said before though, this game doesn't focus on PvP at all, which may end up being a bad thing in the end. AoC probably didn't have an effect on LoTRO because it was easy to tell that AoC was garbage in the first 30 days.
I was thinking 50 for the CE...the retail version of the expansion also comes with the original game as well. So thats not bad. Great for new gamers. But here will be a d/l option that will be cheaper too.
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