Didn't they report 300k last time as well ? Obviosuly they waited until they released in Russia to toss out that 300k sub again. It might be true they have 300k subs but this game is in deep trouble if they don't improve it. I really did enjoy the scenarios but I could'nt see myself paying $15.00 just for scenarios because the pve and character balance in pvp is completly unacceptable.
I still consider 250-300k subs a good number. And since we don't know if the RU numbers are in there we can only speculate about that.
According to Xfire they are around 150K active players now.
(calculated in relation to others games like Wow/eve/lotro) AND calculated to the number of Xfire players they had in Sep/Oct 2008 and Xmas 2008.
That's a 6(!) way check - all with the same results - coming from a 24/24 hours online sampling public of western 250.000 PC players... No need to even argue.
I already bet weeks ago EA would come up with "players" instead of subscribers (avoiding legal actions against false information). I even said the "free to play trial" of March was a last resort to up the numbers in that quarter.
They even add ..." recent info" giving not even a date or confirmed stats.
At all cost they needed to hang on to those 300K. So actual rewording was the only solution and vague terms like "player base and recent info"
I don't question your logic... But XFire is actualy not a very good measuring stick since the use of the tool itself and the user may overrepresent one or another catagory. And this catagory might be more prone to a ceartin kind of behaviour.. Thus tilting the statistic...
But to be honest you are prolly right...
150K is not a shabby number all in all.. CoH has been doing fine with less than that for a good five years now. And you know what they say about aiming for the stars, you atleast reach the treetops.
4.5 millions dollar a month from subs only and its not financialy viable..come on, considering how long this game was in developement (very shot) , this only mean good thing no?
Sorry to break it to you but they won't be makeing anywhere near that much.
Edit: The recession has nothing to do with falling subs if anything most mmorpgs are seeing increased subs because of it.
Umm....did they teach you math in school, or do you happen to own a calculator?
300,000 X 14.95/month = 4,485,000.000 gross income from subs. Sorry but they WILL be making something pretty damn close to that. Plus add your edit, and by your own admission it is likely to see an increase in subs.....
I mean really.....what were you thinking?
Even if the numbers were half of that published, they would have to be ludicrously unwise to not be able to run, maintain and expand WAR with 2.25 million a month.
4.5 millions dollar a month from subs only and its not financialy viable..come on, considering how long this game was in developement (very shot) , this only mean good thing no?
Sorry to break it to you but they won't be makeing anywhere near that much.
Edit: The recession has nothing to do with falling subs if anything most mmorpgs are seeing increased subs because of it.
Umm....did they teach you math in school, or do you happen to own a calculator?
300,000 X 14.95/month = 4,485,000.000 gross income from subs. Sorry but they WILL be making something pretty damn close to that. Plus add your edit, and by your own admission it is likely to see an increase in subs.....
I mean really.....what were you thinking?
Even if the numbers were half of that published, they would have to be ludicrously unwise to not be able to run, maintain and expand WAR with 2.25 million a month.
This was a business analysts idea on the costs EA would be running at recouperating.
"EA said it shipped 1.5 million copies of WAR to retail last week.
Arvind Bhatia at Stern Agee told Edge on Tuesday he came to the 250,000 subscriptions figure based on EA's goal to break even on the game.
"Over time, subscribers will drop off and level off at 250,000- 300,000," he said in a phone interview.
But he admitted that the number could jump as updates and expansion packs are released, adding that it would take about "six months or so" to get an idea of the MMORPG's sustainable user base."
Didn't they report 300k last time as well ? Obviosuly they waited until they released in Russia to toss out that 300k sub again. It might be true they have 300k subs but this game is in deep trouble if they don't improve it. I really did enjoy the scenarios but I could'nt see myself paying $15.00 just for scenarios because the pve and character balance in pvp is completly unacceptable.
Err no, if they did anything they would have *delayed* the Ruassian release for it, since the earnings call is quarterly and exactly that, every three months.
But I don't particularly believe they manipulated Russian release for this, if that had been the case they would have waited a few days so all the people would still have been in their first month and thus *all* would have been included. Now since it's a few days past when the end of Q mark came that means all the people who cancelled after the free month are excluded.
4.5 millions dollar a month from subs only and its not financialy viable..come on, considering how long this game was in developement (very shot) , this only mean good thing no?
Sorry to break it to you but they won't be makeing anywhere near that much.
Edit: The recession has nothing to do with falling subs if anything most mmorpgs are seeing increased subs because of it.
Umm....did they teach you math in school, or do you happen to own a calculator?
300,000 X 14.95/month = 4,485,000.000 gross income from subs. Sorry but they WILL be making something pretty damn close to that. Plus add your edit, and by your own admission it is likely to see an increase in subs.....
I mean really.....what were you thinking?
Even if the numbers were half of that published, they would have to be ludicrously unwise to not be able to run, maintain and expand WAR with 2.25 million a month.
This was a business analysts idea on the costs EA would be running at recouperating.
"EA said it shipped 1.5 million copies of WAR to retail last week.
Arvind Bhatia at Stern Agee told Edge on Tuesday he came to the 250,000 subscriptions figure based on EA's goal to break even on the game.
"Over time, subscribers will drop off and level off at 250,000- 300,000," he said in a phone interview.
But he admitted that the number could jump as updates and expansion packs are released, adding that it would take about "six months or so" to get an idea of the MMORPG's sustainable user base."
Perhaps I was oversimplifying things a bit. I understand that to 'break even' under their original business model, they needed the 300k to be profitable. However, with the amount of income coming in from subscriptions, that original business model can to be overhauled to become profitable. I stick by my guns and say that no company would just give up millions of dollars per month simply because their original model doesn't work; they would simply downsize and restructure to adapt to realities.
For example Vanguard. An mmo that was developed under a AAA business model, likely expecting subs in the hundreds of thousands and they ended up with 40k. But it is still up and running, still being staffed, maintained and expanded - it would seem ludicrous that WAR cannot make it happen with 150k to 300k subs. I even doubt it would have to be a very radical change like VG had to go through to survive.
It may not work if they cling to their original predictions, but I doubt they would be so principled to let the game go under when they have millions of dollars coming in per month.
4.5 millions dollar a month from subs only and its not financialy viable..come on, considering how long this game was in developement (very shot) , this only mean good thing no?
Sorry to break it to you but they won't be makeing anywhere near that much.
Edit: The recession has nothing to do with falling subs if anything most mmorpgs are seeing increased subs because of it.
Umm....did they teach you math in school, or do you happen to own a calculator?
300,000 X 14.95/month = 4,485,000.000 gross income from subs. Sorry but they WILL be making something pretty damn close to that. Plus add your edit, and by your own admission it is likely to see an increase in subs.....
I mean really.....what were you thinking?
Even if the numbers were half of that published, they would have to be ludicrously unwise to not be able to run, maintain and expand WAR with 2.25 million a month.
This was a business analysts idea on the costs EA would be running at recouperating.
"EA said it shipped 1.5 million copies of WAR to retail last week.
Arvind Bhatia at Stern Agee told Edge on Tuesday he came to the 250,000 subscriptions figure based on EA's goal to break even on the game.
"Over time, subscribers will drop off and level off at 250,000- 300,000," he said in a phone interview.
But he admitted that the number could jump as updates and expansion packs are released, adding that it would take about "six months or so" to get an idea of the MMORPG's sustainable user base."
Perhaps I was oversimplifying things a bit. I understand that to 'break even' under their original business model, they needed the 300k to be profitable. However, with the amount of income coming in from subscriptions, that original business model can to be overhauled to become profitable. I stick by my guns and say that no company would just give up millions of dollars per month simply because their original model doesn't work; they would simply downsize and restructure to adapt to realities.
For example Vanguard. An mmo that was developed under a AAA business model, likely expecting subs in the hundreds of thousands and they ended up with 40k. But it is still up and running, still being staffed, maintained and expanded - it would seem ludicrous that WAR cannot make it happen with 150k to 300k subs. I even doubt it would have to be a very radical change like VG had to go through to survive.
It may not work if they cling to their original predictions, but I doubt they would be so principled to let the game go under when they have millions of dollars coming in per month.
I can agree to the idea that they won't drop something that's still covering it's own costs and making a decent buck. Downsizing is most likely a tthat point. Normally I doubt they'd keep it around if something doesn't make a decent profit since you don't want money to simply be tied up on something not making any profits but I guess there's not a lot of options for MMO's to "sell" it off and recouperate that way so just keeping it going at minimal costs would seem like one of the only solutions.
4.5 millions dollar a month from subs only and its not financialy viable..come on, considering how long this game was in developement (very shot) , this only mean good thing no?
Sorry to break it to you but they won't be makeing anywhere near that much.
Edit: The recession has nothing to do with falling subs if anything most mmorpgs are seeing increased subs because of it.
Umm....did they teach you math in school, or do you happen to own a calculator?
300,000 X 14.95/month = 4,485,000.000 gross income from subs. Sorry but they WILL be making something pretty damn close to that. Plus add your edit, and by your own admission it is likely to see an increase in subs.....
I mean really.....what were you thinking?
Even if the numbers were half of that published, they would have to be ludicrously unwise to not be able to run, maintain and expand WAR with 2.25 million a month.
Ever heard of operating costs/staff wages/band width costs etc not to mention they more than likely won't be seeing the the full money from the subs in the areas they don't directly control like the EU.
Originally posted by Newhopes Originally posted by Zorgo Originally posted by Newhopes Originally posted by trillah 4.5 millions dollar a month from subs only and its not financialy viable..come on, considering how long this game was in developement (very shot) , this only mean good thing no?
Sorry to break it to you but they won't be makeing anywhere near that much.
Edit: The recession has nothing to do with falling subs if anything most mmorpgs are seeing increased subs because of it.
Umm....did they teach you math in school, or do you happen to own a calculator? 300,000 X 14.95/month = 4,485,000.000 gross income from subs. Sorry but they WILL be making something pretty damn close to that. Plus add your edit, and by your own admission it is likely to see an increase in subs..... I mean really.....what were you thinking? Even if the numbers were half of that published, they would have to be ludicrously unwise to not be able to run, maintain and expand WAR with 2.25 million a month.
Ever heard of operating costs/staff wages/band width costs etc not to mention they more than likely won't be seeing the the full money from the subs in the areas they don't directly control like the EU.
While all valid points, and I do agree with what I think you are trying to convey, the fact remains those factors are all AFTER the intake of those earnings.
They will make that money, but quickly pay it out in costs.
Also when anyone can show me that millions of people from all walks of life are losing their income, and are paying inflating costs for daily use goods and services, that every market isnt hurt(slowed to be fair in some markets) in a downturning economy, i'll take the page from your book. While this is in the WAR grouping, it most definately doesnt only apply to such.
Whlie some people will be seeking more affordable forms of entertainment in tough times, which I do agree with, the trade-off is much less growth and more sustenance. The truth is I know first hand that many have had to cancel several if not all their subscriptions to many of our favorite games. So, with all due respect, your opinions arent supported by my first hand knowledge.
A loss is a loss is a loss, not another way to slice it, folks.
Even if you take this 300k at face value ( I don't ) The game is clearly not making any progress. If anything it's losing ground. They can release the game in afghanistan if they want but it's not going to matter to the rest of the population. People really think releasing the game in Russia will make any difference? The county has half the population of the US and less than 20 percent even use the internet so I'm not sure that's going to help.
I mean the game isn't going to shut down it makes enough to keep the lights on but let's face reality here people the game is a failure because they didn't fix the laundry list of problems we all told them about back in beta. The game is a blast when you first start playing but after awhile the problems start to get frustrating and the game has no long term viability. People have to be motivated to keep paying to play it. This game is like a console game you trade in after a month because your just bored with it.
Whlie some people will be seeking more affordable forms of entertainment in tough times, which I do agree with, the trade-off is much less growth and more sustenance. The truth is I know first hand that many have had to cancel several if not all their subscriptions to many of our favorite games. So, with all due respect, your opinions arent supported by my first hand knowledge.
Well your first hand knowledge not reflecting other people's opinions doesn't mean it's not true.
Here you have some people actually *in* the gaming industry supporting those statements.
-It seems obvious that the economic downturn isn't hurting games, proving that when bad news hits, people seek escapist entertainment. And what better way is there to kill an hour or two mowing down terrorists and slaying aliens while spending just a little more than your pocket money?
-Perhaps, its no coincidence that the Korean online game industry took off about a decade ago during the Asian financial crisis, the last time the country's economy was rattled to the bone.
-"When money is tight, people look for cheaper sources of entertainment, and online games fit the bill perfectly,'' said Sung Hyun-sook, a researcher with the Korea Game Industry Agency (KOGIA), who says that the sector is now officially out of its mini two-year slump.
-"The game industry has been maintaining growth since the later part of last year, and we expect the momentum to continue, as recent products have been setting a new bar in quality. The massive buzz generated by NCsoft's Aion certainly made a difference.''
I'll say it before, and i'll say it again. I knew this drop in people was coming. The fix is really simple. Eliminate Scenarios alltogether and shift content creation to Opvp. This will elimnate the issues of people leaving to boredom due to having little pvp in opvp at times. Sure, some scenarios are fun, but really from a strategic outlook on the game (content wise and the number of people wise), its killing it.
Just my humble opinion.
"Do not fret! Your captain is about to enter Valhalla!" - General Beatrix of Alexandria
"The acquisition of knowledge is of use to the intellect, for nothing can be loved or hated without first being known." - Leo da Vinci
If Mythic took away SC's today WAR would close up shop by next weeks Downtime.
SC's are the only reason people play this game into tier 2 most leave before Tier 3 since everyone is Orvring by that time and the shit gets boring zerging the same keeps over and over.
Solid argument - but Asians are nothing like Americans when it comes to hobbies/entertainment. I mean - they play Starcraft for a living over there.
Well, even more to the point, I'm pretty sure I saw "paul" himself mention playing a MMO (WAR) was a great thing with the economical downturn (some podcast although not his own small one I think). Of course it was blatant self promotion but it still builds on the same point.
The zerg is taking empty keeps and empty BOs, its been boring. Scenario is the real place for PvP, other than that, its all about getting loots and PvE.
Honestly, before the token system, no one would plan to flip the zone, they just go take the BO first for the RR without thinking it would reduce the VP to flip a zone.
Now it is slightly better, but when ever the keep is being defended, people will just move to another zone, or wait at the warcamp.
Solid argument - but Asians are nothing like Americans when it comes to hobbies/entertainment. I mean - they play Starcraft for a living over there.
Well, even more to the point, I'm pretty sure I saw "paul" himself mention playing a MMO (WAR) was a great thing with the economical downturn (some podcast although not his own small one I think). Of course it was blatant self promotion but it still builds on the same point.
Back in February Barnett said that. (2:30 in the vid). He says "the investment in WAR is the cheapest thing you're going to get" in this economy.
Interestingly enough, he also referred to WAR at (1:12) as "the ultimate sandbox game." That wasn't my particular impression of WAR. Felt like railroad tracks all the way.
I understand even the devs said sub 500k is a failing game.
I think you have your sources mixed up. Some players have a bizarre view of how many subs are the 'cut off' for a successful game, and that 500k is the latest arbitrary number I have seen them throw around a lot.
Actually MJ himself said somewhere he would consider 500k "successful".
You don't see a big difference between MJ saying that he would consider 500k a success and the statement that under 500k is a failing game?
That I can agree with, but I also don't think 40% under his success number was really what he would call successful either. And to be honest, I think anyone who was there around release time knows there were hoping/expecting for *way* more than either of those numbers and I would *not* have been surprised if they had.
I researched that and it seems you misunderstood what he said. He was talking about what it would take to sucessfully become the number 2 NA MMO. He did not say WAR needed 500k to be a success.
If Mythic took away SC's today WAR would close up shop by next weeks Downtime. SC's are the only reason people play this game into tier 2 most leave before Tier 3 since everyone is Orvring by that time and the shit gets boring zerging the same keeps over and over.
The reason why keeps are boring, is that all the defense is focused over 2 doors. Over those doors are nigh indestructable oil containers that I rarely saw brought down. The seige weaponary is terrible. It took the focus fire of 3-4 weapons on a single defensive unit to break it. Only to have another pop up in it's place on another pad. They just need to enable the breaking of walls and holes so offensive groups can take a more tatical route. As it stands now you are just funneled into the maw of the spell casters with little hope if you do not have dedicated healers. Sometimes that isn't even enough if casters focus fire you. I honestly feel bad for any non-tank class trying to help on an actively defended door.
If Mythic took away SC's today WAR would close up shop by next weeks Downtime. SC's are the only reason people play this game into tier 2 most leave before Tier 3 since everyone is Orvring by that time and the shit gets boring zerging the same keeps over and over.
The reason why keeps are boring, is that all the defense is focused over 2 doors.
Then throw in that groups can lure the Lord from the upper floor and kill him without bodyguards, or you can spend time beating down the front door with your WB only to have a group of melee ninja the rear with Lockpick, sneak in and kill the Lord, and your WB gets nothing for it's time.
Just so many eccentric and dumb oddities in this game involved around the most important parts; keeps and endgame.
I understand even the devs said sub 500k is a failing game.
I think you have your sources mixed up. Some players have a bizarre view of how many subs are the 'cut off' for a successful game, and that 500k is the latest arbitrary number I have seen them throw around a lot.
Actually MJ himself said somewhere he would consider 500k "successful".
You don't see a big difference between MJ saying that he would consider 500k a success and the statement that under 500k is a failing game?
That I can agree with, but I also don't think 40% under his success number was really what he would call successful either.
And to be honest, I think anyone who was there around release time knows there were hoping/expecting for *way* more than either of those numbers and I would *not* have been surprised if they had.
I researched that and it seems you misunderstood what he said. He was talking about what it would take to sucessfully become the number 2 NA MMO. He did not say WAR needed 500k to be a success.
Although i can understand what you are saying, in that particular interview he also says “Let’s just say north of half a million ""would mean we’re successful. Now how a far north? I wouldn’t mind being a little bit cold.” after having said "I want us to be no less than number two".
That part is already in doubt with Eve just having reached 300k users as well.
Again this comes down to the previous argumen tthough. He didn't say it was "needed to be a success" but he did say he would consider themselves "succesful" if they got at least 500k.
In all honestly though, does any of us really believe they were aiming that low? I sure wasn't with them having polls in the company on how long it would take them to reach 1 million etc etc.
Originally posted by Pheace Originally posted by LynxJSA I researched that and it seems you misunderstood what he said. He was talking about what it would take to sucessfully become the number 2 NA MMO. He did not say WAR needed 500k to be a success.
Although i can understand what you are saying, in that particular interview he also says Lets just say north of half a million ""would mean were successful. Now how a far north? I wouldnt mind being a little bit cold. after having said "I want us to be no less than number two".
That part is already in doubt with Eve just having reached 300k users as well.
Again this comes down to the previous argumen tthough. He didn't say it was "needed to be a success" but he did say he would consider themselves "succesful" if they got at least 500k.
In all honestly though, does any of us really believe they were aiming that low? I sure wasn't with them having polls in the company on how long it would take them to reach 1 million etc etc.
You are right again, Pheace. What, you have an elephant memory or something? Everytime I check out something you say, it's backable.
Creative Director Paul Barnett in September interview talking about bets to Eurogamer Magazine: ----------------------------
Eurogamer: Do you have a number of players in mind that you'd consider a success?
Paul Barnett: I don't know what the business people have - they have all sorts of crazy numbers, and things to do with shareholders, and things that would probably get me fired. But we're having a staff pool. I put down my bet: a million within the year, and then three million.
If Mythic took away SC's today WAR would close up shop by next weeks Downtime. SC's are the only reason people play this game into tier 2 most leave before Tier 3 since everyone is Orvring by that time and the shit gets boring zerging the same keeps over and over.
The SC is why the game is failing. Number 1 its splitting the games population in thirds. 1. PVE 2. SC 3. OPVP. You eliminate it you have more pve for opvp. Secondly you can use the same "boring"/zerging arguement for SC's. Hell I would argue it applies more TO SC, as you can easily play a few games real fast. The more people you have bunched together the more likely you are going to be to steamroll the map. Not to mention as fast as you do the maps it can get boring fast. Thirdly it splits the cames content focus up more. It's just better to do away with it and focus on fun stuff for pve and opvp.
Like I said. This isnt wow. We don't need bg's. Thanks.
"Do not fret! Your captain is about to enter Valhalla!" - General Beatrix of Alexandria
"The acquisition of knowledge is of use to the intellect, for nothing can be loved or hated without first being known." - Leo da Vinci
If Mythic took away SC's today WAR would close up shop by next weeks Downtime. SC's are the only reason people play this game into tier 2 most leave before Tier 3 since everyone is Orvring by that time and the shit gets boring zerging the same keeps over and over.
That's a load of crap. The SC is why the game is failing. Number 1 its splitting the games population in thirds. 1. PVE 2. SC 3. OPVP. You eliminate it you have more pve for opvp. Secondly you can use the same "boring"/zerging arguement for SC's. Hell I would argue it applies more TO SC, as you can easily play a few games real fast. The more people you have bunched together the more likely you are going to be to steamroll the map. Not to mention as fast as you do the maps it can get boring fast. Thirdly it splits the cames content focus up more. It's just better to do away with it and focus on fun stuff for pve and opvp.
Like I said. This isnt wow. We don't need bg's. Thanks.
Actually ppl also say the same about WoW, that the instanced BG's are killing the game, yet I see no dip in subscribers to back that up.
I thoroughly enjoy doing SC's, I can do them all day and still enjoy them, however I do mix it up a bit and participate in all aspects of the game.
However I really want Mythic to do something about PQ's, too many, not enough interest for the harder ones, rewards can be a tad weak for the risk and effort, and the rolling system used to allocate the loot can be too random at times to ensure ppl feel they are adequately rewarded for their efforts.
I researched that and it seems you misunderstood what he said. He was talking about what it would take to sucessfully become the number 2 NA MMO. He did not say WAR needed 500k to be a success.
Although i can understand what you are saying, in that particular interview he also says “Let’s just say north of half a million ""would mean we’re successful. Now how a far north? I wouldn’t mind being a little bit cold.” after having said "I want us to be no less than number two".
That part is already in doubt with Eve just having reached 300k users as well.
Again this comes down to the previous argumen tthough. He didn't say it was "needed to be a success" but he did say he would consider themselves "succesful" if they got at least 500k.
In all honestly though, does any of us really believe they were aiming that low? I sure wasn't with them having polls in the company on how long it would take them to reach 1 million etc etc.
You are right again, Pheace. What, you have an elephant memory or something? Everytime I check out something you say, it's backable.
Creative Director Paul Barnett in September interview talking about bets to Eurogamer Magazine:
----------------------------
Eurogamer: Do you have a number of players in mind that you'd consider a success?
Paul Barnett: I don't know what the business people have - they have all sorts of crazy numbers, and things to do with shareholders, and things that would probably get me fired. But we're having a staff pool. I put down my bet: a million within the year, and then three million.
Eurogamer: That's a confident bet.
Paul Barnett: But that's just me, personally. That's not Mythic or EA.
Finished that for you.
-- Whammy - a 64x64 miniRPG - RPG Quiz - can you get all 25 right? - FPS Quiz - how well do you know your shooters?
Comments
Didn't they report 300k last time as well ? Obviosuly they waited until they released in Russia to toss out that 300k sub again. It might be true they have 300k subs but this game is in deep trouble if they don't improve it. I really did enjoy the scenarios but I could'nt see myself paying $15.00 just for scenarios because the pve and character balance in pvp is completly unacceptable.
According to Xfire they are around 150K active players now.
(calculated in relation to others games like Wow/eve/lotro) AND calculated to the number of Xfire players they had in Sep/Oct 2008 and Xmas 2008.
That's a 6(!) way check - all with the same results - coming from a 24/24 hours online sampling public of western 250.000 PC players... No need to even argue.
I already bet weeks ago EA would come up with "players" instead of subscribers (avoiding legal actions against false information). I even said the "free to play trial" of March was a last resort to up the numbers in that quarter.
They even add ..." recent info" giving not even a date or confirmed stats.
At all cost they needed to hang on to those 300K. So actual rewording was the only solution and vague terms like "player base and recent info"
I don't question your logic... But XFire is actualy not a very good measuring stick since the use of the tool itself and the user may overrepresent one or another catagory. And this catagory might be more prone to a ceartin kind of behaviour.. Thus tilting the statistic...
But to be honest you are prolly right...
150K is not a shabby number all in all.. CoH has been doing fine with less than that for a good five years now. And you know what they say about aiming for the stars, you atleast reach the treetops.
This have been a good conversation
Sorry to break it to you but they won't be makeing anywhere near that much.
Edit: The recession has nothing to do with falling subs if anything most mmorpgs are seeing increased subs because of it.
Umm....did they teach you math in school, or do you happen to own a calculator?
300,000 X 14.95/month = 4,485,000.000 gross income from subs. Sorry but they WILL be making something pretty damn close to that. Plus add your edit, and by your own admission it is likely to see an increase in subs.....
I mean really.....what were you thinking?
Even if the numbers were half of that published, they would have to be ludicrously unwise to not be able to run, maintain and expand WAR with 2.25 million a month.
Sorry to break it to you but they won't be makeing anywhere near that much.
Edit: The recession has nothing to do with falling subs if anything most mmorpgs are seeing increased subs because of it.
Umm....did they teach you math in school, or do you happen to own a calculator?
300,000 X 14.95/month = 4,485,000.000 gross income from subs. Sorry but they WILL be making something pretty damn close to that. Plus add your edit, and by your own admission it is likely to see an increase in subs.....
I mean really.....what were you thinking?
Even if the numbers were half of that published, they would have to be ludicrously unwise to not be able to run, maintain and expand WAR with 2.25 million a month.
This was a business analysts idea on the costs EA would be running at recouperating.
"EA said it shipped 1.5 million copies of WAR to retail last week.
Arvind Bhatia at Stern Agee told Edge on Tuesday he came to the 250,000 subscriptions figure based on EA's goal to break even on the game.
"Over time, subscribers will drop off and level off at 250,000- 300,000," he said in a phone interview.
But he admitted that the number could jump as updates and expansion packs are released, adding that it would take about "six months or so" to get an idea of the MMORPG's sustainable user base."
Err no, if they did anything they would have *delayed* the Ruassian release for it, since the earnings call is quarterly and exactly that, every three months.
But I don't particularly believe they manipulated Russian release for this, if that had been the case they would have waited a few days so all the people would still have been in their first month and thus *all* would have been included. Now since it's a few days past when the end of Q mark came that means all the people who cancelled after the free month are excluded.
Sorry to break it to you but they won't be makeing anywhere near that much.
Edit: The recession has nothing to do with falling subs if anything most mmorpgs are seeing increased subs because of it.
Umm....did they teach you math in school, or do you happen to own a calculator?
300,000 X 14.95/month = 4,485,000.000 gross income from subs. Sorry but they WILL be making something pretty damn close to that. Plus add your edit, and by your own admission it is likely to see an increase in subs.....
I mean really.....what were you thinking?
Even if the numbers were half of that published, they would have to be ludicrously unwise to not be able to run, maintain and expand WAR with 2.25 million a month.
This was a business analysts idea on the costs EA would be running at recouperating.
"EA said it shipped 1.5 million copies of WAR to retail last week.
Arvind Bhatia at Stern Agee told Edge on Tuesday he came to the 250,000 subscriptions figure based on EA's goal to break even on the game.
"Over time, subscribers will drop off and level off at 250,000- 300,000," he said in a phone interview.
But he admitted that the number could jump as updates and expansion packs are released, adding that it would take about "six months or so" to get an idea of the MMORPG's sustainable user base."
Perhaps I was oversimplifying things a bit. I understand that to 'break even' under their original business model, they needed the 300k to be profitable. However, with the amount of income coming in from subscriptions, that original business model can to be overhauled to become profitable. I stick by my guns and say that no company would just give up millions of dollars per month simply because their original model doesn't work; they would simply downsize and restructure to adapt to realities.
For example Vanguard. An mmo that was developed under a AAA business model, likely expecting subs in the hundreds of thousands and they ended up with 40k. But it is still up and running, still being staffed, maintained and expanded - it would seem ludicrous that WAR cannot make it happen with 150k to 300k subs. I even doubt it would have to be a very radical change like VG had to go through to survive.
It may not work if they cling to their original predictions, but I doubt they would be so principled to let the game go under when they have millions of dollars coming in per month.
Sorry to break it to you but they won't be makeing anywhere near that much.
Edit: The recession has nothing to do with falling subs if anything most mmorpgs are seeing increased subs because of it.
Umm....did they teach you math in school, or do you happen to own a calculator?
300,000 X 14.95/month = 4,485,000.000 gross income from subs. Sorry but they WILL be making something pretty damn close to that. Plus add your edit, and by your own admission it is likely to see an increase in subs.....
I mean really.....what were you thinking?
Even if the numbers were half of that published, they would have to be ludicrously unwise to not be able to run, maintain and expand WAR with 2.25 million a month.
This was a business analysts idea on the costs EA would be running at recouperating.
"EA said it shipped 1.5 million copies of WAR to retail last week.
Arvind Bhatia at Stern Agee told Edge on Tuesday he came to the 250,000 subscriptions figure based on EA's goal to break even on the game.
"Over time, subscribers will drop off and level off at 250,000- 300,000," he said in a phone interview.
But he admitted that the number could jump as updates and expansion packs are released, adding that it would take about "six months or so" to get an idea of the MMORPG's sustainable user base."
Perhaps I was oversimplifying things a bit. I understand that to 'break even' under their original business model, they needed the 300k to be profitable. However, with the amount of income coming in from subscriptions, that original business model can to be overhauled to become profitable. I stick by my guns and say that no company would just give up millions of dollars per month simply because their original model doesn't work; they would simply downsize and restructure to adapt to realities.
For example Vanguard. An mmo that was developed under a AAA business model, likely expecting subs in the hundreds of thousands and they ended up with 40k. But it is still up and running, still being staffed, maintained and expanded - it would seem ludicrous that WAR cannot make it happen with 150k to 300k subs. I even doubt it would have to be a very radical change like VG had to go through to survive.
It may not work if they cling to their original predictions, but I doubt they would be so principled to let the game go under when they have millions of dollars coming in per month.
I can agree to the idea that they won't drop something that's still covering it's own costs and making a decent buck. Downsizing is most likely a tthat point. Normally I doubt they'd keep it around if something doesn't make a decent profit since you don't want money to simply be tied up on something not making any profits but I guess there's not a lot of options for MMO's to "sell" it off and recouperate that way so just keeping it going at minimal costs would seem like one of the only solutions.
Sorry to break it to you but they won't be makeing anywhere near that much.
Edit: The recession has nothing to do with falling subs if anything most mmorpgs are seeing increased subs because of it.
Umm....did they teach you math in school, or do you happen to own a calculator?
300,000 X 14.95/month = 4,485,000.000 gross income from subs. Sorry but they WILL be making something pretty damn close to that. Plus add your edit, and by your own admission it is likely to see an increase in subs.....
I mean really.....what were you thinking?
Even if the numbers were half of that published, they would have to be ludicrously unwise to not be able to run, maintain and expand WAR with 2.25 million a month.
Ever heard of operating costs/staff wages/band width costs etc not to mention they more than likely won't be seeing the the full money from the subs in the areas they don't directly control like the EU.
Edit: The recession has nothing to do with falling subs if anything most mmorpgs are seeing increased subs because of it.
Umm....did they teach you math in school, or do you happen to own a calculator?
300,000 X 14.95/month = 4,485,000.000 gross income from subs. Sorry but they WILL be making something pretty damn close to that. Plus add your edit, and by your own admission it is likely to see an increase in subs.....
I mean really.....what were you thinking?
Even if the numbers were half of that published, they would have to be ludicrously unwise to not be able to run, maintain and expand WAR with 2.25 million a month.
Ever heard of operating costs/staff wages/band width costs etc not to mention they more than likely won't be seeing the the full money from the subs in the areas they don't directly control like the EU.
While all valid points, and I do agree with what I think you are trying to convey, the fact remains those factors are all AFTER the intake of those earnings.
They will make that money, but quickly pay it out in costs.
Also when anyone can show me that millions of people from all walks of life are losing their income, and are paying inflating costs for daily use goods and services, that every market isnt hurt(slowed to be fair in some markets) in a downturning economy, i'll take the page from your book. While this is in the WAR grouping, it most definately doesnt only apply to such.
Whlie some people will be seeking more affordable forms of entertainment in tough times, which I do agree with, the trade-off is much less growth and more sustenance. The truth is I know first hand that many have had to cancel several if not all their subscriptions to many of our favorite games. So, with all due respect, your opinions arent supported by my first hand knowledge.
A loss is a loss is a loss, not another way to slice it, folks.
Even if you take this 300k at face value ( I don't ) The game is clearly not making any progress. If anything it's losing ground. They can release the game in afghanistan if they want but it's not going to matter to the rest of the population. People really think releasing the game in Russia will make any difference? The county has half the population of the US and less than 20 percent even use the internet so I'm not sure that's going to help.
I mean the game isn't going to shut down it makes enough to keep the lights on but let's face reality here people the game is a failure because they didn't fix the laundry list of problems we all told them about back in beta. The game is a blast when you first start playing but after awhile the problems start to get frustrating and the game has no long term viability. People have to be motivated to keep paying to play it. This game is like a console game you trade in after a month because your just bored with it.
Whlie some people will be seeking more affordable forms of entertainment in tough times, which I do agree with, the trade-off is much less growth and more sustenance. The truth is I know first hand that many have had to cancel several if not all their subscriptions to many of our favorite games. So, with all due respect, your opinions arent supported by my first hand knowledge.
Well your first hand knowledge not reflecting other people's opinions doesn't mean it's not true.
Here you have some people actually *in* the gaming industry supporting those statements.
Link
Quotes:
-It seems obvious that the economic downturn isn't hurting games, proving that when bad news hits, people seek escapist entertainment. And what better way is there to kill an hour or two mowing down terrorists and slaying aliens while spending just a little more than your pocket money?
-Perhaps, its no coincidence that the Korean online game industry took off about a decade ago during the Asian financial crisis, the last time the country's economy was rattled to the bone.
-"When money is tight, people look for cheaper sources of entertainment, and online games fit the bill perfectly,'' said Sung Hyun-sook, a researcher with the Korea Game Industry Agency (KOGIA), who says that the sector is now officially out of its mini two-year slump.
-"The game industry has been maintaining growth since the later part of last year, and we expect the momentum to continue, as recent products have been setting a new bar in quality. The massive buzz generated by NCsoft's Aion certainly made a difference.''
Solid argument - but Asians are nothing like Americans when it comes to hobbies/entertainment. I mean - they play Starcraft for a living over there.
I'll say it before, and i'll say it again. I knew this drop in people was coming. The fix is really simple. Eliminate Scenarios alltogether and shift content creation to Opvp. This will elimnate the issues of people leaving to boredom due to having little pvp in opvp at times. Sure, some scenarios are fun, but really from a strategic outlook on the game (content wise and the number of people wise), its killing it.
Just my humble opinion.
"Do not fret! Your captain is about to enter Valhalla!" - General Beatrix of Alexandria
"The acquisition of knowledge is of use to the intellect, for nothing can be loved or hated without first being known." - Leo da Vinci
If Mythic took away SC's today WAR would close up shop by next weeks Downtime.
SC's are the only reason people play this game into tier 2 most leave before Tier 3 since everyone is Orvring by that time and the shit gets boring zerging the same keeps over and over.
Playing: EvE, Ryzom
Well, even more to the point, I'm pretty sure I saw "paul" himself mention playing a MMO (WAR) was a great thing with the economical downturn (some podcast although not his own small one I think). Of course it was blatant self promotion but it still builds on the same point.
Yea, I won't play the game without scenario.
The zerg is taking empty keeps and empty BOs, its been boring. Scenario is the real place for PvP, other than that, its all about getting loots and PvE.
Honestly, before the token system, no one would plan to flip the zone, they just go take the BO first for the RR without thinking it would reduce the VP to flip a zone.
Now it is slightly better, but when ever the keep is being defended, people will just move to another zone, or wait at the warcamp.
Yeah, you were right.
Back in February Barnett said that. (2:30 in the vid). He says "the investment in WAR is the cheapest thing you're going to get" in this economy.
Interestingly enough, he also referred to WAR at (1:12) as "the ultimate sandbox game." That wasn't my particular impression of WAR. Felt like railroad tracks all the way.
"TO MICHAEL!"
I researched that and it seems you misunderstood what he said. He was talking about what it would take to sucessfully become the number 2 NA MMO. He did not say WAR needed 500k to be a success.
Source: http://ve3d.ign.com/articles/news/44480/EverQuest-II-Has-500-000-Subscribers
- RPG Quiz - can you get all 25 right?
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The reason why keeps are boring, is that all the defense is focused over 2 doors. Over those doors are nigh indestructable oil containers that I rarely saw brought down. The seige weaponary is terrible. It took the focus fire of 3-4 weapons on a single defensive unit to break it. Only to have another pop up in it's place on another pad. They just need to enable the breaking of walls and holes so offensive groups can take a more tatical route. As it stands now you are just funneled into the maw of the spell casters with little hope if you do not have dedicated healers. Sometimes that isn't even enough if casters focus fire you. I honestly feel bad for any non-tank class trying to help on an actively defended door.
Then throw in that groups can lure the Lord from the upper floor and kill him without bodyguards, or you can spend time beating down the front door with your WB only to have a group of melee ninja the rear with Lockpick, sneak in and kill the Lord, and your WB gets nothing for it's time.
Just so many eccentric and dumb oddities in this game involved around the most important parts; keeps and endgame.
"TO MICHAEL!"
I think you have your sources mixed up. Some players have a bizarre view of how many subs are the 'cut off' for a successful game, and that 500k is the latest arbitrary number I have seen them throw around a lot.
Actually MJ himself said somewhere he would consider 500k "successful".
You don't see a big difference between MJ saying that he would consider 500k a success and the statement that under 500k is a failing game?
That I can agree with, but I also don't think 40% under his success number was really what he would call successful either.
And to be honest, I think anyone who was there around release time knows there were hoping/expecting for *way* more than either of those numbers and I would *not* have been surprised if they had.
I researched that and it seems you misunderstood what he said. He was talking about what it would take to sucessfully become the number 2 NA MMO. He did not say WAR needed 500k to be a success.
Source: http://ve3d.ign.com/articles/news/44480/EverQuest-II-Has-500-000-Subscribers
Although i can understand what you are saying, in that particular interview he also says “Let’s just say north of half a million ""would mean we’re successful. Now how a far north? I wouldn’t mind being a little bit cold.” after having said "I want us to be no less than number two".
That part is already in doubt with Eve just having reached 300k users as well.
Again this comes down to the previous argumen tthough. He didn't say it was "needed to be a success" but he did say he would consider themselves "succesful" if they got at least 500k.
In all honestly though, does any of us really believe they were aiming that low? I sure wasn't with them having polls in the company on how long it would take them to reach 1 million etc etc.
Although i can understand what you are saying, in that particular interview he also says Lets just say north of half a million ""would mean were successful. Now how a far north? I wouldnt mind being a little bit cold. after having said "I want us to be no less than number two".
That part is already in doubt with Eve just having reached 300k users as well.
Again this comes down to the previous argumen tthough. He didn't say it was "needed to be a success" but he did say he would consider themselves "succesful" if they got at least 500k.
In all honestly though, does any of us really believe they were aiming that low? I sure wasn't with them having polls in the company on how long it would take them to reach 1 million etc etc.
You are right again, Pheace. What, you have an elephant memory or something? Everytime I check out something you say, it's backable.
Creative Director Paul Barnett in September interview talking about bets to Eurogamer Magazine:
----------------------------
Eurogamer: Do you have a number of players in mind that you'd consider a success?
Paul Barnett: I don't know what the business people have - they have all sorts of crazy numbers, and things to do with shareholders, and things that would probably get me fired. But we're having a staff pool. I put down my bet: a million within the year, and then three million.
Eurogamer: That's a confident bet.
"TO MICHAEL!"
The SC is why the game is failing. Number 1 its splitting the games population in thirds. 1. PVE 2. SC 3. OPVP. You eliminate it you have more pve for opvp. Secondly you can use the same "boring"/zerging arguement for SC's. Hell I would argue it applies more TO SC, as you can easily play a few games real fast. The more people you have bunched together the more likely you are going to be to steamroll the map. Not to mention as fast as you do the maps it can get boring fast. Thirdly it splits the cames content focus up more. It's just better to do away with it and focus on fun stuff for pve and opvp.
Like I said. This isnt wow. We don't need bg's. Thanks.
"Do not fret! Your captain is about to enter Valhalla!" - General Beatrix of Alexandria
"The acquisition of knowledge is of use to the intellect, for nothing can be loved or hated without first being known." - Leo da Vinci
That's a load of crap. The SC is why the game is failing. Number 1 its splitting the games population in thirds. 1. PVE 2. SC 3. OPVP. You eliminate it you have more pve for opvp. Secondly you can use the same "boring"/zerging arguement for SC's. Hell I would argue it applies more TO SC, as you can easily play a few games real fast. The more people you have bunched together the more likely you are going to be to steamroll the map. Not to mention as fast as you do the maps it can get boring fast. Thirdly it splits the cames content focus up more. It's just better to do away with it and focus on fun stuff for pve and opvp.
Like I said. This isnt wow. We don't need bg's. Thanks.
Actually ppl also say the same about WoW, that the instanced BG's are killing the game, yet I see no dip in subscribers to back that up.
I thoroughly enjoy doing SC's, I can do them all day and still enjoy them, however I do mix it up a bit and participate in all aspects of the game.
However I really want Mythic to do something about PQ's, too many, not enough interest for the harder ones, rewards can be a tad weak for the risk and effort, and the rolling system used to allocate the loot can be too random at times to ensure ppl feel they are adequately rewarded for their efforts.
Although i can understand what you are saying, in that particular interview he also says “Let’s just say north of half a million ""would mean we’re successful. Now how a far north? I wouldn’t mind being a little bit cold.” after having said "I want us to be no less than number two".
That part is already in doubt with Eve just having reached 300k users as well.
Again this comes down to the previous argumen tthough. He didn't say it was "needed to be a success" but he did say he would consider themselves "succesful" if they got at least 500k.
In all honestly though, does any of us really believe they were aiming that low? I sure wasn't with them having polls in the company on how long it would take them to reach 1 million etc etc.
You are right again, Pheace. What, you have an elephant memory or something? Everytime I check out something you say, it's backable.
Creative Director Paul Barnett in September interview talking about bets to Eurogamer Magazine:
----------------------------
Eurogamer: Do you have a number of players in mind that you'd consider a success?
Paul Barnett: I don't know what the business people have - they have all sorts of crazy numbers, and things to do with shareholders, and things that would probably get me fired. But we're having a staff pool. I put down my bet: a million within the year, and then three million.
Eurogamer: That's a confident bet.
Paul Barnett: But that's just me, personally. That's not Mythic or EA.
Finished that for you.
- RPG Quiz - can you get all 25 right?
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