Aion at first then Guild Wars 2 .. although not on the list.. I feel this one is a sleeper. Being that the dated original guild wars is still popular and hitting over 5 million, not many can say that. So as long as the sequal adds to what is there and doesnt screw anything up this one could be a killer.
I have a negative opinion of the new Blizz mmo, Tom Chilton is running that show and most of us would rather cut our own wrists then have him as haed dev again working along side his everquest buddies and Ghostcrawler.. since a lot of use already lived through his AOS disaster and his BC disaster and are now experiencing the WOTLK disaster he largely designed.
Aion at first then Guild Wars 2 .. although not on the list.. I feel this one is a sleeper. Being that the dated original guild wars is still popular and hitting over 5 million, not many can say that. So as long as the sequal adds to what is there and doesnt screw anything up this one could be a killer. I have a negative opinion of the new Blizz mmo, Tom Chilton is running that show and most of us would rather cut our own wrists then have him as haed dev again working along side his everquest buddies and Ghostcrawler.. since a lot of use already lived through his AOS disaster and his BC disaster and are now experiencing the WOTLK disaster he largely designed.
So no not much exitement for the Blizz mmo.
First Tom Chilton is not working on the new Blizzard MMO. Learn to be informed.
Secondly GW2 has around a 3.5 to 4%western market share. Wow has around a 58 to 60% marketshare.
The first one has no subs. The second one costs 15 dollars... per month. Easy .
Compared to the known westerns subs of Wow and the official announced EVE subs, it would mean GW lingers around 400-450K players.
NCSoft merely adds sold "disks" inclusive the expansions to its "millions" of sales.
------
OP: SC2 will have no impact. Aion and Champions on line will have no impact (unless to reinforce the leading position of Wow after 6 months. (as always with these copycats).
The only noticable impact will come from D3 and Kotor. But it will depend on their quality and originality.
The new mmorpg from Blizzard will only come >2013. 5 to 6 years development is the minimum in "Blizzard" time.
-------- > The surprise could be that the first "non Wow clone" could even come from Blizzard, as they already ... have Wow and Blizzard will want another MMO market
I think WoW has run its course, and Champions/DC/et al is not even in the fantasy market. GW has better graphics and smoother gameplay than WoW, which is why I got it. I dropped WoW a while ago.
"Of all the things wrong with today's RPGs, 2D characters on a 3D background is the worst."
First Tom Chilton is not working on the new Blizzard MMO. Learn to be informed. Secondly GW has around a 3.5 to 4%western market share. Wow has around a 58 to 60% marketshare. http://www.xfire.com/genre/mmo/massively_multiplayer_online/ The first one has no subs. The second one costs 15 dollars... per month. Easy . Compared to the known westerns subs of Wow and the official announced EVE subs, it would mean GW lingers around 400-450K players. NCSoft merely adds sold "disks" inclusive the expansions to its "millions" of sales. ------ OP: SC2 will have no impact. Aion and Champions on line will have no impact (unless to reinforce the leading position of Wow after 6 months. (as always with these copycats). The only noticable impact will come from D3 and Kotor. But it will depend on their quality and originality. The new mmorpg from Blizzard will only come >2013. 5 to 6 years development is the minimum in "Blizzard" time. -------- > The surprise could be that the first "non Wow clone" could even come from Blizzard, as they already ... have Wow and Blizzard will want another MMO market
I think WoW has run its course, and Champions/DC/et al is not even in the fantasy market. GW has better graphics and smoother gameplay than WoW, which is why I got it. I dropped WoW a while ago.
So you are the center of the universe and .... the stats are stats.
If a FREE game has less than a 4% marketshare in players and another has 58-60% marketshare and costs ... money to even play it. Explain.
Pity for you, you are not the center of the universe. ))
Why do people play WoW? Simple answer: A lot of them are ignorant to the fact that there are better MMOs out there. Not saying stupid, just ignorant. Also, how much of the stat is between the ages of 10-18 (Usually an indicator that teens with very limited funding)? Also, who the HECK is Xfire? Isn't that one of those online server hosts? Wouldn't they be biased if so?
No, I don't believe I'm the center, but with the closest thing to WoW is (according to XFire, again feel bias) "Other," when here I see that the top 10 is different in market share: gigaom.com/2007/06/13/top-ten-most-popular-mmos/
Still, since I know so little on any of the rating systems and how they gather data, I ignore them. They said CoX was number two as of issue 5, and I saw massive drops in people after. This is not me being the center of any universe, this is an observation from playing a few hours in these games. No need for insults otherwise.
"Of all the things wrong with today's RPGs, 2D characters on a 3D background is the worst."
WoW will die off on its own and it will take all the noob players it recruited who only play WoW and nothing else, and that will ravage the MMO genre population. Thats my theory. Most of the people that I know who play WoW don't play/know of any other games....
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If it wasnt for the fact EQ2 is already out and as far as subs isnt competing with WoW and never really has i would have said an Everquest game. But as i mentioned above we have seen that isnt going to happen. Really our best hope for a game that can bring that real emersive feel back to the genre was also thrown out the window when Brad was forced to release vanguard early. Again another game with potential that let alot of people down. Currently Aion is doing well and getting rather good reviews but i cant help to think this will be a fad that takes maybe 750k-1mil subs in NA and either holds there or slowly declines.
I personally feel the best shot at overthrowing WoW from a subscription standpoint will come from blizzard themselves. There is a general consensus that what WoW lacked was that feeling that EQ and UO gave people while playing. Blizzard has answered this wither intentionally or unintentionally by putting some pretty key people in positions within the new project. I think we will see a tougher leveling curve in the new game and a more nastalgic feel that we have in a long time from WoW itself and other games being hastily released. Tom chilton may not be running the team on this but you cant deny , that from what we have heard, its stacked with talent that has some serious experience in the early days of MMO gaming.
This is just my 2cents and the thoughts that go through my head as we all speculate on what game might be the next big thing.
If it wasnt for the fact EQ2 is already out and as far as subs isnt competing with WoW and never really has i would have said an Everquest game. But as i mentioned above we have seen that isnt going to happen. Really our best hope for a game that can bring that real emersive feel back to the genre was also thrown out the window when Brad was forced to release vanguard early. Again another game with potential that let alot of people down. Currently Aion is doing well and getting rather good reviews but i cant help to think this will be a fad that takes maybe 750k-1mil subs in NA and either holds there or slowly declines.
I personally feel the best shot at overthrowing WoW from a subscription standpoint will come from blizzard themselves. There is a general consensus that what WoW lacked was that feeling that EQ and UO gave people while playing. Blizzard has answered this wither intentionally or unintentionally by putting some pretty key people in positions within the new project. I think we will see a tougher leveling curve in the new game and a more nastalgic feel that we have in a long time from WoW itself and other games being hastily released. Tom chilton may not be running the team on this but you cant deny , that from what we have heard, its stacked with talent that has some serious experience in the early days of MMO gaming.
This is just my 2cents and the thoughts that go through my head as we all speculate on what game might be the next big thing.
Probably one of the best posts I have seen in this thread, could not agree more^^
Yea thats right an action rpg that isnt even an MMO could impact WoW's market. How is that possible?
Battle.net 2.0 has been confirmed to be free to play (atleast for Diablo 3) so no monthly subs.
You will have access to the best gear/bosses in the game without having to be part of a hardcore raiding guild.
Interesting loot drop system that gives loot per character that only they can see, so no ninjaing/rolling/dkp.
Randomly generated dungeons and quests to ease the grind (though for some bizzare reason i found Diablo 2's grind less tedious than WoWs, but thats just me and ive played Diablo 2 way more than i have WoW)
But seriously the very fact that its Diablo is enough. I know quite a few of my real life friends that play other MMOs and alomst everyone in my guild will be buying it. Keep in mind that, Diablo 2 was the fastest selling computer game ever sold, with more than 1 million units sold in the first two weeks of its release and was given a place in the Guinness Book of World Records for that milestone.
Granted Warcraft 3 and later WoW and its 2 ex-packs eclipsed that record, fact remains that it is a Blizzard game and is an action rpg with a FREE online component. Just because it dosen't have a MMO tag dosen't mean it will be any less of a threat.
I have nothing against Aion or any of the other up and comming MMOs. Competetion (good or bad) is always a good thing, but i don't think majority of WoWs population will jump ship to play a PvP MMO. They will choose something thats familiar and a lot closer to home. And while we are still waiting for details on Blizz's next gen MMO, Diablo 3 seems like a really good candidate.
By the way heres the announcement video at the WWI if you still think its not a big deal, and a good majority of the people in that video are WoW players
"It is my opinion, that my opinions are always right"
If it wasnt for the fact EQ2 is already out and as far as subs isnt competing with WoW and never really has i would have said an Everquest game. But as i mentioned above we have seen that isnt going to happen. Really our best hope for a game that can bring that real emersive feel back to the genre was also thrown out the window when Brad was forced to release vanguard early. Again another game with potential that let alot of people down. Currently Aion is doing well and getting rather good reviews but i cant help to think this will be a fad that takes maybe 750k-1mil subs in NA and either holds there or slowly declines.
I personally feel the best shot at overthrowing WoW from a subscription standpoint will come from blizzard themselves. There is a general consensus that what WoW lacked was that feeling that EQ and UO gave people while playing. Blizzard has answered this wither intentionally or unintentionally by putting some pretty key people in positions within the new project. I think we will see a tougher leveling curve in the new game and a more nastalgic feel that we have in a long time from WoW itself and other games being hastily released. Tom chilton may not be running the team on this but you cant deny , that from what we have heard, its stacked with talent that has some serious experience in the early days of MMO gaming.
This is just my 2cents and the thoughts that go through my head as we all speculate on what game might be the next big thing.
That in and of itself will doom it to fail. Steep learning curve is why I played EQ only one week at best, and SWG a couple of days. Sure, there will be die-hard fans, but the casual gamer is what you want. Best bet is go for KISS, yet also add more things.
- More diverse, true-3D races. I mean centaurs, naga, faeries....
- NPC groups, ala Guild Wars (for those who like campaigns without the hassle of building a team).
- more actiony combat. No "Lemme stand here for 30 seconds to cast a spell" time. Let the recharge rate be slower for the spells, instead of the casting time.
- base races more diverse. Why make it to level 70 to start over, RPing a special race?
"Of all the things wrong with today's RPGs, 2D characters on a 3D background is the worst."
But on another note. I think we need to step back and not focus on the actual gameplay features, and realize that the WAY you play these games is why they will become boring. The basic input for a PC gamer is a keyboard/mouse combination. Now I dont know about everyone else, but the main reason I stopped subbing to MMO's and playing PC games in general is the fact that no matter how long I played any MMO whether it was AOC, WOW,WAR,LOTRO,EVE,GW, etc. No amount of eye candy or new feature encased in a square frame could hold me. I always found the fun in the community/friends, not necessarily the game itself, because to me. Pointing and clicking will forever be boring and yet remain theonly way to play these games.
So sit back and think. No matter what title, brand, developer, is behind these games, you are still pointing and clicking a rehashed sci-fi, fantasy, etc setting where the words customisable and upgrade are the only thing that keep you going.
Time, most definitely. But on another note. I think we need to step back and not focus on the actual gameplay features, and realize that the WAY you play these games is why they will become boring. The basic input for a PC gamer is a keyboard/mouse combination. Now I dont know about everyone else, but the main reason I stopped subbing to MMO's and playing PC games in general is the fact that no matter how long I played any MMO whether it was AOC, WOW,WAR,LOTRO,EVE,GW, etc. No amount of eye candy or new feature encased in a square frame could hold me. I always found the fun in the community/friends, not necessarily the game itself, because to me. Pointing and clicking will forever be boring and yet remain theonly way to play these games.
So sit back and think. No matter what title, brand, developer, is behind these games, you are still pointing and clicking a rehashed sci-fi, fantasy, etc setting where the words customisable and upgrade are the only thing that keep you going. My 2 cents.
WOW has around a 60% marketshare, the others hover at around 1 to 4%.
------> That's simply a too big difference to put them all in ONE line when speaking of "impact".
One expansion of Wow is enough to have a yearly number one PC seller, beating any competiton multiple times.
Why would you play another copy if all the best players and guilds are following the market leader?
Bro I wasnt talking about those games impacting WoW. I was talking about the inevitable fate that I am sure many will eventually reach in the realization of the tediousness and repetidiveness of MMO's.
I think the only way WoW will lose A LOT of subs is if blizzard release another MMO, i am sure most of WoW players will try it out, and its inevitable that some will choose it over WoW.
A part of me feels that another way WoW will lose subs is when players start to realize the game is getting "old" and want something "new". Lets say another game comes out, not like all the "wow clones" that have been released over the last few years, but a game that takes all the good bits from WoW, and adds good bits from other MMO's. For example, If a game came out that was very similar to WoW, but it had castle seiges... i gurantee the majority of PVP players will switch.
But a lot of people have got obsessed with this game, my older brother is one of them, his priorities are so wrong, and you hear these stories all the time. Don't get me wrong, it happens with other big games like EQ1 and Lineage II. But this is why it doesn't lose subs, people keep coming back, i've done it myself, 5-6 times, because its probably the most polished, easiest to run, populated game in the world but is just lacking something these days.
Thats my opinion anyway, no bait or anything intended, i've experienced this game for over 3 years now and i admit, a great game, but what i said above is my honest opinion on WoW.
First Tom Chilton is not working on the new Blizzard MMO. Learn to be informed. Secondly GW has around a 3.5 to 4%western market share. Wow has around a 58 to 60% marketshare. http://www.xfire.com/genre/mmo/massively_multiplayer_online/ The first one has no subs. The second one costs 15 dollars... per month. Easy . Compared to the known westerns subs of Wow and the official announced EVE subs, it would mean GW lingers around 400-450K players. NCSoft merely adds sold "disks" inclusive the expansions to its "millions" of sales. ------ OP: SC2 will have no impact. Aion and Champions on line will have no impact (unless to reinforce the leading position of Wow after 6 months. (as always with these copycats). The only noticable impact will come from D3 and Kotor. But it will depend on their quality and originality. The new mmorpg from Blizzard will only come >2013. 5 to 6 years development is the minimum in "Blizzard" time. -------- > The surprise could be that the first "non Wow clone" could even come from Blizzard, as they already ... have Wow and Blizzard will want another MMO market
I think WoW has run its course, and Champions/DC/et al is not even in the fantasy market. GW has better graphics and smoother gameplay than WoW, which is why I got it. I dropped WoW a while ago.
So you are the center of the universe and .... the stats are stats.
If a FREE game has less than a 4% marketshare in players and another has 58-60% marketshare and costs ... money to even play it. Explain.
Pity for you, you are not the center of the universe. ))
Why do people play WoW? Simple answer: A lot of them are ignorant to the fact that there are better MMOs out there. Not saying stupid, just ignorant. Also, how much of the stat is between the ages of 10-18 (Usually an indicator that teens with very limited funding)? Also, who the HECK is Xfire? Isn't that one of those online server hosts? Wouldn't they be biased if so?
No, I don't believe I'm the center, but with the closest thing to WoW is (according to XFire, again feel bias) "Other," when here I see that the top 10 is different in market share: gigaom.com/2007/06/13/top-ten-most-popular-mmos/
Still, since I know so little on any of the rating systems and how they gather data, I ignore them. They said CoX was number two as of issue 5, and I saw massive drops in people after. This is not me being the center of any universe, this is an observation from playing a few hours in these games. No need for insults otherwise.
I'd like to point out that this GigaOM MMO Top 10 has some interesting figures, but their top 10 is pretty flawed because they are comparing apples to oranges and counting registered users as active users. Furthermore some games in there that aren't even mmo's ...
If you are interested in subscription or PCU numbers for MMORPG's, check out my site : http://mmodata.blogspot.be/ Favorite MMORPG's : DAoC pre ToA-NF, SWG Pre CU-NGE, EVE Online
I can only see the next Blizzard MMO as the real contender to WoW's crown. New MMO's come out and I try them for a few months but nothing measures up long term and i always end up going back to Azeroth. I just hope they build more pvp in to the core design of the next one from the out-set and make it less PvE-centric. There's small chance of that with Jeffery 'PvE' Kaplan heading it up but I'll live in hope though.
The obvious game to choose on that list is KOTOR - but that isn't going to rock the boat too much.
Sure, it's going to have plenty of hype but end of the day it's Star Wars. That IP has been done on a MMO and the Star Wars universe didn't really set the world alight. Don't get me woring I think it will do well, maybe 500k subs after the launch rush is over, but nothing for Blizzard to worry about.
Their main problem is that WoW is getting old. I don't mean in old as in time because new content always comes along but players get fatigued playing the same basic game continually. End of the day it doesn't matter what expansion comes along the fact it's WoW will put some people off as they get sick of it. So they will start drifting away at some point.
Some will just leave MMO's all together in the absence of an obvious successor and I can't see their next MMO coming out before 2012. That is unless they have massively increased their staff since they did WoW as that took them 7 years.
_________________________________________ You can walk the walk but can you talk the talk?
Originally posted by Zorndorf And indeed chances are that Blizzard will deliver it, ....because they are the only ones NOT competing with WOW as an "obsession" to the money grabbing.
And im affraid they wont, i think their financial succus make them to arrogant to step away from the concept that made WoW a huge succes.
I think you will see the same concept that made Wow into their new MMO
Low requirements easy content very solo friendly, easy epics etc.
Also im sure they will compete with their own mmo as they dont want to loose the players that got burned out on WoW to another company.
Originally posted by Shilar Why do people play WoW? Simple answer: A lot of them are ignorant to the fact that there are better MMOs out there. Not saying stupid, just ignorant. Also, how much of the stat is between the ages of 10-18 (Usually an indicator that teens with very limited funding)?
1) Neilsen did a little rating and found most wow players to be over the age of 18.
2) What are these better mmos that people just don't know about? Name them and I bet you I can show you a game plenty of people know about, but choose not to play.
The simple answer is that people play wow, because for them it is the best mmo experience on the market. There is not some secret society hiding "better" mmos from the masses.
Wow will only feel the effects of another mmo that makes a fun game experience and doesn't play to closely to wow. The odds of someone beating wow at its own game right now are pretty slim, so it will need something extra or something different. Until then I don't see much changing.
There will be no single "WoW killer", doubt even Blizzard themselves could manage that now, market has diversified now and most of the MMO newbie's that WoW attracted are learning that WoW is not the only MMO out there
WoW will slowly chipped away at by each new MMO that comes out on the market, as has been happening for the last few years, odd 10 thousand to games like AoC, WAR, DFo, maybe few hundred thousand to bigger games like Aion/New StarWars so forth, maybe million or so to new Bliz MMO when it comes out (remember 1 million Aion subscribers does not equal 1 million lost WoW subscribers), then add in the general attrition due to time that normally happens
Not including things like the China fiasco and we will see the sub numbers drop by about 250 to 500k per year until they reach about the 2 million mark and possibly stabilise there for a few years (some people just never quit, see UO for example)
10 Years from now WoW will still be going with at least 1 million subs (which would still make it one of the biggest MMO's) unless Bliz decide to actually shut it down and force everyone to their new MMO
*All of the above is of course dependant on some idiot like Tom Chilton not pulling another UO:AoS
I need a new MMO world to call home as Tom Chilton keeps destroying them
You need something completely different to even have an impact.
While I agree that part of the problem with other MMO's is their copying of WoW, have to point out something
WoW it's self was nothing original, it just improved (by a large margin) on the basic's from the others games on the market at the time (Mainly EQ, but also some from UO/SWG/DaoC/Lineage)
The main reason the others games that copy them fail is not just that they copied WoW, but rather they tried to copy WoW and ended up doing a really bad job of it, forget actually improving on WoW
If someone made a WoW clone that was really an improvement on WoW they most certainly would have an impact
I need a new MMO world to call home as Tom Chilton keeps destroying them
Originally posted by Shilar Why do people play WoW? Simple answer: A lot of them are ignorant to the fact that there are better MMOs out there. Not saying stupid, just ignorant. Also, how much of the stat is between the ages of 10-18 (Usually an indicator that teens with very limited funding)?
1) Neilsen did a little rating and found most wow players to be over the age of 18.
Citation please? I found many places saying that all but Orc/Night Elf are primarily mid-teen, and daedelus said 25. Anyone with a link please speak out.
(BTW: xFire I was reminded on several websites (mainly F2P MMOs) that slowdowns and errors occur with their software. Now I remember it (I played Fiesta Online, which tried xFire once, and quickly dropped them). So the ratings of active can be -very- skewed if the MMO doesn't work with xFire. (which is why I showed the other link).)
2) What are these better mmos that people just don't know about? Name them and I bet you I can show you a game plenty of people know about, but choose not to play.
I'm sure you could, and I could name a few of those as well: Shadowbane, DDO, Myth Wars, Horizons... then there are fun ones I've heard, and not many knew in my nice circle of friends: Fiesta, DOMO, Shin Megami Tensei just for examples.
The simple answer is that people play wow, because for them it is the best mmo experience on the market. There is not some secret society hiding "better" mmos from the masses.
Did I say secret society? You assumed. A very bad call.
Wow will only feel the effects of another mmo that makes a fun game experience and doesn't play to closely to wow. The odds of someone beating wow at its own game right now are pretty slim, so it will need something extra or something different. Until then I don't see much changing.
While I agree on the point the next mmo has to be different from WoW (and for that matter, EQ), it needs more. More variants on races, more action-based combat, less "corpse run" problems, etc. I like Guild Wars because of the lack of Corpse Runs, and the death penalty, but I gripe that you get it no matter how you die (unlike WoW where res restores you without death penalty). Each game has a problem, and perhaps listening to ideas might make a better game.
"Of all the things wrong with today's RPGs, 2D characters on a 3D background is the worst."
The answer is sooo simple why people play and PAY for WOW. And it's not a very difficult theory of conspiracy or lazy people either. It is because simply people like it that much. As for your reference of "miilions of players" in other games. Look at the difference: WOW = active subscribers and the others mention "players or accounts". Meaning "anything" counts. Xfire is a sampled on line base (24Hr/7days) f 200.000 to 300.000 western PC game players (from over a 20.000.000 registred ones). If you know that 900 families are enough to view the TV broadcast viewing figures of ...6.000.000 people, you know that Xfire shows a very good trend of what is being played on line with the PC within our western world. http://www.xfire.com/genre/mmo/massively_multiplayer_online/ The moment that WOW position will be in the 30% bracket (and having 50K Xfire players instead of 90K+) instead of 58-60% you 'll see it will loose a market share. Not before because someone of those millions thinks he is the universe ... and posts on a forum with whining emotions. And the number of players show this for all mmorpg's. (War went in 9 months from 14K Xfire to 2.3K players). So it will show when Wow will loose its impact, but facts are clear these days: Wow is widely played more than anything else. And your opinion doesn't change much. A personal opinion can change every day - even simply losing a BG or a bad night's sleep can change an attitude for some - . Stats show you are just one of the many millions that play games. Learn to be more modest.
Why I asked. I did do some research with the F2P MMOs I have played (Fiesta Online and DOMO mainly), and found xFire to be a massive complaint. If Nielson degraded your TV experience would you want it hooked to your TV?
As far as modesty, I leave emotions at the door when I state experience. I go to a hotel, and find their water is lukewarm when I put the water on hot, I tell. If the water park is too small and geared to little kids, I tell that. If I just think the models are ugly, why should that be involved? When I step on the largest server at 7PM, or 2 AM, and find no one home, and do this for a a few weeks with the same result,... you get the drift? Thanks.
"Of all the things wrong with today's RPGs, 2D characters on a 3D background is the worst."
Why do people play WoW? Simple answer: A lot of them are ignorant to the fact that there are better MMOs out there. Not saying stupid, just ignorant. Also, how much of the stat is between the ages of 10-18 (Usually an indicator that teens with very limited funding)?
1) Neilsen did a little rating and found most wow players to be over the age of 18.
Citation please? I found many places saying that all but Orc/Night Elf are primarily mid-teen, and daedelus said 25. Anyone with a link please speak out.
Comments
Time.
"What is truly revealing is his implication that believing something to be true is the same as it being true. [continue]" -John Oliver
Aion at first then Guild Wars 2 .. although not on the list.. I feel this one is a sleeper. Being that the dated original guild wars is still popular and hitting over 5 million, not many can say that. So as long as the sequal adds to what is there and doesnt screw anything up this one could be a killer.
I have a negative opinion of the new Blizz mmo, Tom Chilton is running that show and most of us would rather cut our own wrists then have him as haed dev again working along side his everquest buddies and Ghostcrawler.. since a lot of use already lived through his AOS disaster and his BC disaster and are now experiencing the WOTLK disaster he largely designed.
So no not much exitement for the Blizz mmo.
First Tom Chilton is not working on the new Blizzard MMO. Learn to be informed.
Secondly GW2 has around a 3.5 to 4%western market share. Wow has around a 58 to 60% marketshare.
http://www.xfire.com/genre/mmo/massively_multiplayer_online/
The first one has no subs. The second one costs 15 dollars... per month. Easy .
Compared to the known westerns subs of Wow and the official announced EVE subs, it would mean GW lingers around 400-450K players.
NCSoft merely adds sold "disks" inclusive the expansions to its "millions" of sales.
------
OP: SC2 will have no impact. Aion and Champions on line will have no impact (unless to reinforce the leading position of Wow after 6 months. (as always with these copycats).
The only noticable impact will come from D3 and Kotor. But it will depend on their quality and originality.
The new mmorpg from Blizzard will only come >2013. 5 to 6 years development is the minimum in "Blizzard" time.
-------- > The surprise could be that the first "non Wow clone" could even come from Blizzard, as they already ... have Wow and Blizzard will want another MMO market
I think WoW has run its course, and Champions/DC/et al is not even in the fantasy market. GW has better graphics and smoother gameplay than WoW, which is why I got it. I dropped WoW a while ago.
"Of all the things wrong with today's RPGs, 2D characters on a 3D background is the worst."
I think WoW has run its course, and Champions/DC/et al is not even in the fantasy market. GW has better graphics and smoother gameplay than WoW, which is why I got it. I dropped WoW a while ago.
So you are the center of the universe and .... the stats are stats.
If a FREE game has less than a 4% marketshare in players and another has 58-60% marketshare and costs ... money to even play it. Explain.
Pity for you, you are not the center of the universe.
))
Why do people play WoW? Simple answer: A lot of them are ignorant to the fact that there are better MMOs out there. Not saying stupid, just ignorant. Also, how much of the stat is between the ages of 10-18 (Usually an indicator that teens with very limited funding)? Also, who the HECK is Xfire? Isn't that one of those online server hosts? Wouldn't they be biased if so?
No, I don't believe I'm the center, but with the closest thing to WoW is (according to XFire, again feel bias) "Other," when here I see that the top 10 is different in market share: gigaom.com/2007/06/13/top-ten-most-popular-mmos/
Still, since I know so little on any of the rating systems and how they gather data, I ignore them. They said CoX was number two as of issue 5, and I saw massive drops in people after. This is not me being the center of any universe, this is an observation from playing a few hours in these games. No need for insults otherwise.
"Of all the things wrong with today's RPGs, 2D characters on a 3D background is the worst."
WoW will die off on its own and it will take all the noob players it recruited who only play WoW and nothing else, and that will ravage the MMO genre population. Thats my theory. Most of the people that I know who play WoW don't play/know of any other games....
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If it wasnt for the fact EQ2 is already out and as far as subs isnt competing with WoW and never really has i would have said an Everquest game. But as i mentioned above we have seen that isnt going to happen. Really our best hope for a game that can bring that real emersive feel back to the genre was also thrown out the window when Brad was forced to release vanguard early. Again another game with potential that let alot of people down. Currently Aion is doing well and getting rather good reviews but i cant help to think this will be a fad that takes maybe 750k-1mil subs in NA and either holds there or slowly declines.
I personally feel the best shot at overthrowing WoW from a subscription standpoint will come from blizzard themselves. There is a general consensus that what WoW lacked was that feeling that EQ and UO gave people while playing. Blizzard has answered this wither intentionally or unintentionally by putting some pretty key people in positions within the new project. I think we will see a tougher leveling curve in the new game and a more nastalgic feel that we have in a long time from WoW itself and other games being hastily released. Tom chilton may not be running the team on this but you cant deny , that from what we have heard, its stacked with talent that has some serious experience in the early days of MMO gaming.
This is just my 2cents and the thoughts that go through my head as we all speculate on what game might be the next big thing.
EQ DaoC EQ2 WoW Vanguard AoC Waaagh and beyond
Probably one of the best posts I have seen in this thread, could not agree more^^
While i do agree with and like what Vrazule and Serrix said, to answer the question thats in the thread's title,
Diablo 3
Yea thats right an action rpg that isnt even an MMO could impact WoW's market. How is that possible?
But seriously the very fact that its Diablo is enough. I know quite a few of my real life friends that play other MMOs and alomst everyone in my guild will be buying it. Keep in mind that, Diablo 2 was the fastest selling computer game ever sold, with more than 1 million units sold in the first two weeks of its release and was given a place in the Guinness Book of World Records for that milestone.
Granted Warcraft 3 and later WoW and its 2 ex-packs eclipsed that record, fact remains that it is a Blizzard game and is an action rpg with a FREE online component. Just because it dosen't have a MMO tag dosen't mean it will be any less of a threat.
I have nothing against Aion or any of the other up and comming MMOs. Competetion (good or bad) is always a good thing, but i don't think majority of WoWs population will jump ship to play a PvP MMO. They will choose something thats familiar and a lot closer to home. And while we are still waiting for details on Blizz's next gen MMO, Diablo 3 seems like a really good candidate.
By the way heres the announcement video at the WWI if you still think its not a big deal, and a good majority of the people in that video are WoW players
"It is my opinion, that my opinions are always right"
That in and of itself will doom it to fail. Steep learning curve is why I played EQ only one week at best, and SWG a couple of days. Sure, there will be die-hard fans, but the casual gamer is what you want. Best bet is go for KISS, yet also add more things.
- More diverse, true-3D races. I mean centaurs, naga, faeries....
- NPC groups, ala Guild Wars (for those who like campaigns without the hassle of building a team).
- more actiony combat. No "Lemme stand here for 30 seconds to cast a spell" time. Let the recharge rate be slower for the spells, instead of the casting time.
- base races more diverse. Why make it to level 70 to start over, RPing a special race?
"Of all the things wrong with today's RPGs, 2D characters on a 3D background is the worst."
World of StarCraft
MAGA
Time, most definitely.
But on another note. I think we need to step back and not focus on the actual gameplay features, and realize that the WAY you play these games is why they will become boring. The basic input for a PC gamer is a keyboard/mouse combination. Now I dont know about everyone else, but the main reason I stopped subbing to MMO's and playing PC games in general is the fact that no matter how long I played any MMO whether it was AOC, WOW,WAR,LOTRO,EVE,GW, etc. No amount of eye candy or new feature encased in a square frame could hold me. I always found the fun in the community/friends, not necessarily the game itself, because to me. Pointing and clicking will forever be boring and yet remain theonly way to play these games.
So sit back and think. No matter what title, brand, developer, is behind these games, you are still pointing and clicking a rehashed sci-fi, fantasy, etc setting where the words customisable and upgrade are the only thing that keep you going.
My 2 cents.
WOW has around a 60% marketshare, the others hover at around 1 to 4%.
http://www.xfire.com/genre/mmo/massively_multiplayer_online/
------> That's simply a too big difference to put them all in ONE line when speaking of "impact".
One expansion of Wow is enough to have a yearly number one PC seller, beating any competiton multiple times.
Why would you play another copy if all the best players and guilds are following the market leader?
Bro I wasnt talking about those games impacting WoW. I was talking about the inevitable fate that I am sure many will eventually reach in the realization of the tediousness and repetidiveness of MMO's.
Understand now. Thanks
I think the only way WoW will lose A LOT of subs is if blizzard release another MMO, i am sure most of WoW players will try it out, and its inevitable that some will choose it over WoW.
A part of me feels that another way WoW will lose subs is when players start to realize the game is getting "old" and want something "new". Lets say another game comes out, not like all the "wow clones" that have been released over the last few years, but a game that takes all the good bits from WoW, and adds good bits from other MMO's. For example, If a game came out that was very similar to WoW, but it had castle seiges... i gurantee the majority of PVP players will switch.
But a lot of people have got obsessed with this game, my older brother is one of them, his priorities are so wrong, and you hear these stories all the time. Don't get me wrong, it happens with other big games like EQ1 and Lineage II. But this is why it doesn't lose subs, people keep coming back, i've done it myself, 5-6 times, because its probably the most polished, easiest to run, populated game in the world but is just lacking something these days.
Thats my opinion anyway, no bait or anything intended, i've experienced this game for over 3 years now and i admit, a great game, but what i said above is my honest opinion on WoW.
I laughed at this.
I think WoW has run its course, and Champions/DC/et al is not even in the fantasy market. GW has better graphics and smoother gameplay than WoW, which is why I got it. I dropped WoW a while ago.
So you are the center of the universe and .... the stats are stats.
If a FREE game has less than a 4% marketshare in players and another has 58-60% marketshare and costs ... money to even play it. Explain.
Pity for you, you are not the center of the universe.
))
Why do people play WoW? Simple answer: A lot of them are ignorant to the fact that there are better MMOs out there. Not saying stupid, just ignorant. Also, how much of the stat is between the ages of 10-18 (Usually an indicator that teens with very limited funding)? Also, who the HECK is Xfire? Isn't that one of those online server hosts? Wouldn't they be biased if so?
No, I don't believe I'm the center, but with the closest thing to WoW is (according to XFire, again feel bias) "Other," when here I see that the top 10 is different in market share: gigaom.com/2007/06/13/top-ten-most-popular-mmos/
Still, since I know so little on any of the rating systems and how they gather data, I ignore them. They said CoX was number two as of issue 5, and I saw massive drops in people after. This is not me being the center of any universe, this is an observation from playing a few hours in these games. No need for insults otherwise.
I'd like to point out that this GigaOM MMO Top 10 has some interesting figures, but their top 10 is pretty flawed because they are comparing apples to oranges and counting registered users as active users. Furthermore some games in there that aren't even mmo's ...
If you are interested in subscription or PCU numbers for MMORPG's, check out my site :
http://mmodata.blogspot.be/
Favorite MMORPG's : DAoC pre ToA-NF, SWG Pre CU-NGE, EVE Online
I can only see the next Blizzard MMO as the real contender to WoW's crown. New MMO's come out and I try them for a few months but nothing measures up long term and i always end up going back to Azeroth. I just hope they build more pvp in to the core design of the next one from the out-set and make it less PvE-centric. There's small chance of that with Jeffery 'PvE' Kaplan heading it up but I'll live in hope though.
The obvious game to choose on that list is KOTOR - but that isn't going to rock the boat too much.
Sure, it's going to have plenty of hype but end of the day it's Star Wars. That IP has been done on a MMO and the Star Wars universe didn't really set the world alight. Don't get me woring I think it will do well, maybe 500k subs after the launch rush is over, but nothing for Blizzard to worry about.
Their main problem is that WoW is getting old. I don't mean in old as in time because new content always comes along but players get fatigued playing the same basic game continually. End of the day it doesn't matter what expansion comes along the fact it's WoW will put some people off as they get sick of it. So they will start drifting away at some point.
Some will just leave MMO's all together in the absence of an obvious successor and I can't see their next MMO coming out before 2012. That is unless they have massively increased their staff since they did WoW as that took them 7 years.
_________________________________________
You can walk the walk but can you talk the talk?
And im affraid they wont, i think their financial succus make them to arrogant to step away from the concept that made WoW a huge succes.
I think you will see the same concept that made Wow into their new MMO
Low requirements easy content very solo friendly, easy epics etc.
Also im sure they will compete with their own mmo as they dont want to loose the players that got burned out on WoW to another company.
All in my pov of course.
1) Neilsen did a little rating and found most wow players to be over the age of 18.
2) What are these better mmos that people just don't know about? Name them and I bet you I can show you a game plenty of people know about, but choose not to play.
The simple answer is that people play wow, because for them it is the best mmo experience on the market. There is not some secret society hiding "better" mmos from the masses.
Wow will only feel the effects of another mmo that makes a fun game experience and doesn't play to closely to wow. The odds of someone beating wow at its own game right now are pretty slim, so it will need something extra or something different. Until then I don't see much changing.
There will be no single "WoW killer", doubt even Blizzard themselves could manage that now, market has diversified now and most of the MMO newbie's that WoW attracted are learning that WoW is not the only MMO out there
WoW will slowly chipped away at by each new MMO that comes out on the market, as has been happening for the last few years, odd 10 thousand to games like AoC, WAR, DFo, maybe few hundred thousand to bigger games like Aion/New StarWars so forth, maybe million or so to new Bliz MMO when it comes out (remember 1 million Aion subscribers does not equal 1 million lost WoW subscribers), then add in the general attrition due to time that normally happens
Not including things like the China fiasco and we will see the sub numbers drop by about 250 to 500k per year until they reach about the 2 million mark and possibly stabilise there for a few years (some people just never quit, see UO for example)
10 Years from now WoW will still be going with at least 1 million subs (which would still make it one of the biggest MMO's) unless Bliz decide to actually shut it down and force everyone to their new MMO
*All of the above is of course dependant on some idiot like Tom Chilton not pulling another UO:AoS
I need a new MMO world to call home as Tom Chilton keeps destroying them
While I agree that part of the problem with other MMO's is their copying of WoW, have to point out something
WoW it's self was nothing original, it just improved (by a large margin) on the basic's from the others games on the market at the time (Mainly EQ, but also some from UO/SWG/DaoC/Lineage)
The main reason the others games that copy them fail is not just that they copied WoW, but rather they tried to copy WoW and ended up doing a really bad job of it, forget actually improving on WoW
If someone made a WoW clone that was really an improvement on WoW they most certainly would have an impact
I need a new MMO world to call home as Tom Chilton keeps destroying them
Citation please? I found many places saying that all but Orc/Night Elf are primarily mid-teen, and daedelus said 25. Anyone with a link please speak out.
(BTW: xFire I was reminded on several websites (mainly F2P MMOs) that slowdowns and errors occur with their software. Now I remember it (I played Fiesta Online, which tried xFire once, and quickly dropped them). So the ratings of active can be -very- skewed if the MMO doesn't work with xFire. (which is why I showed the other link).)
I'm sure you could, and I could name a few of those as well: Shadowbane, DDO, Myth Wars, Horizons... then there are fun ones I've heard, and not many knew in my nice circle of friends: Fiesta, DOMO, Shin Megami Tensei just for examples.
Did I say secret society? You assumed. A very bad call.
While I agree on the point the next mmo has to be different from WoW (and for that matter, EQ), it needs more. More variants on races, more action-based combat, less "corpse run" problems, etc. I like Guild Wars because of the lack of Corpse Runs, and the death penalty, but I gripe that you get it no matter how you die (unlike WoW where res restores you without death penalty). Each game has a problem, and perhaps listening to ideas might make a better game.
"Of all the things wrong with today's RPGs, 2D characters on a 3D background is the worst."
Why I asked. I did do some research with the F2P MMOs I have played (Fiesta Online and DOMO mainly), and found xFire to be a massive complaint. If Nielson degraded your TV experience would you want it hooked to your TV?
As far as modesty, I leave emotions at the door when I state experience. I go to a hotel, and find their water is lukewarm when I put the water on hot, I tell. If the water park is too small and geared to little kids, I tell that. If I just think the models are ugly, why should that be involved? When I step on the largest server at 7PM, or 2 AM, and find no one home, and do this for a a few weeks with the same result,... you get the drift? Thanks.
"Of all the things wrong with today's RPGs, 2D characters on a 3D background is the worst."
Citation please? I found many places saying that all but Orc/Night Elf are primarily mid-teen, and daedelus said 25. Anyone with a link please speak out.
http://www.wow.com/2009/04/09/nielsen-wow-is-most-played-core-game-by-25-54-females/
Link broke, try again. Also, judging the url, it's talking on females only. Females make up 16% of RL WoW playing according to Daedelus Project.
http://www.nickyee.com/daedalus/archives/cat_wow_data.php
"Of all the things wrong with today's RPGs, 2D characters on a 3D background is the worst."