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General: Great Expectations - SW:TOR
Stradden
Managing EditorMember CommonPosts: 6,696
MMORPG.com columnist Scott Jennings takes this week's column inches to look at why Bioware's Star Wars: The Old Republic has the potential to be a disaster for the MMO industry as a whole.
Something I've been harping on, probably annoyingly, is how the MMO industry needs more independence - specifically independent developers, free to experiment with innovative designs, veer from the path of cranking out more of the same, and avoid a lot of the misery involved in the codependent relationship that much of the gaming industry suffers through with publishers and associated developers.
Electronic Arts has a different idea. Unsurprising, since EA isn't exactly a scrappy indy! Electronic Arts' different idea, apparently, is to spend every other MMO developer into the ground. Or maybe just spend themselves into the ground. Because, as industry analyst Arvind Bhatia reported from an EA investor's conference:
Although "earnings are somewhat depressed due to ongoing expenses of the Star Wars MMO, management has high hopes for this and believes 2M+ subs is possible." He added that a little over 1 million subscribers is needed to reach the break-even point, but the ultimate goal is to get several million subscribers.
Check out Great Expectations - SW:TOR.
Cheers,
Jon Wood
Managing Editor
MMORPG.com
Comments
I understand it's a column .... but to my taste there are to many "if's" and "assume" in the calculations ...
Also keep in mind that as MMORPG's have become much more popular and the old-school MMO-ers have "seen it all" ... expectations have gone up .. a LOT. I think the enormous budgets are needed to be able to produce products that can rise up to the expectations of the 1 million players they need
Interesting article, but I'm not sure I agree with the conclusion. I think it's perfectly fine for some few companies to try to be massive, to be the Walmart of MMOs. But it doesn't mean the 'little guy' will always be drowned out because of it. The little guys just need to produce something that the big guys don't offer. It might be open PvP, a la Eve, or a completely different setting, like CoX.
One thing that Wow does very well is that it makes it easy for the non MMOer to get their feet wet in an MMO. Once they get used to the general mechanics of MMOs, they can choose to move on or not.
While I can see a few short-minded investors being gun-shy after looking at those kind of bucks, I don't think it's setting a bad precedent or a DOOM for the MMO industry. There are many gamers who have found their niche game and will stay with it til they shut the servers off. You don't need to be as successful as a Walmart or a McDonalds to be in business and still turn a profit.
What's horrible is that this is classic EA mentality. They have yet to produce a successful MMO so they figure the problem is finances. Unfortunately I agree with Scott's findings here, 1 million subcribers is the holy grail of MMO's in a post WoW era. Even Blizzard didn't calculate or expect their numbers to get that high, neither did Blizzard expect to make th eir money back in 1 year. EA can't run projects with a long tail, it's not in their blood. If they can't ship a game that makes it's money back in 1 year they consider it a failure, hence why they have failed at MMO's.
However the realy crime here is that they are spending so much money on SW:TOR and from what has been shown so far, there is nothing about the game that indicates it is twice as good in gameplay as say, WoW was (and I'm not a WoW fan). Sure their budget is huge, their team is massive and I bet their production values, such as full voice, are quite high. But none of that fluff has ever made past MMO's successful. Remember, Everquest 2 had full voice narration too and that feature was so... not cared for by the players that it has slowly worked its way out of the game. Voice acting makes for interesting story telling but it doesn't make your gameplay any better and it doesn't retain customers.
The real question becomes, what about SW:TOR makes it the second coming? What makes it the next holy grail? The Star Wars IP? History h as already proven that's not enough. Sure the market is different now, they'll get over a million in box sales in the first month easy. It's retention that matters and there's been very little I've seen in the released gameplay shots that show it's got the kind of chops to retain those kinds of numbers.
Right now it looks like a heavily instance,d story driven MMO that will be mostly a single player experience with some grouping options. It'll be another MMO on rails, moreso than even WoW was at launch. And right now those kinds of MMO's just aren't doing well when it comes to breaking the 1 million barrier. They are all successful, even the much hated Star Trek Online has over 200k subs making it profitable for what Cryptic spent on it. But then, cryptic spent less than one sixth what Bioware/EA are spending.
EA should've learned their lesson by watching Warhammer ship with similar crazy wow-killer expectations. I certainly hope they succeed, I'd like to see SW:TOR be a sustainable game, the kind you play for years like WoW. But nothing about its currently released information indicates it has those kinds of legs.
Yes, it's always a risk and a toss of the dice, a high one too if your rough estimates are close. However, if you weigh the odds and consider what they're doing and with whom, it's definitely a well calculated risk.
You have:
- One of the most popular, well recognized, and highest grossing IP's/Franchises in history: Star Wars
- One of the biggest rising stars in game development, well respected and renowned for quality games: Bioware. I think it's
safe to say that Bioware's reputation and following are on par with Blizzards, and I see Bioware taking more and more of
the spotlight.
- One of the most well recieved "eras" of the SW universe: The Old Republic. The games and the lore behind this era have
been well recieved, some even like it better than the Luke/Darth Vader era.
- The backing of EA and Lucasarts ( for whatever that's worth to some )
- Some new, never-before seen features in an MMORPG, like fully voiced NPC's/dialouge for the WHOLE game, choice & consequence system for quests, etc.
Yes, I have high hopes for SWTOR, as I am a fan of both the IP and the developer. But, all games have a chance of failure, I just think SWTOR has a fairly good shot at coming out succesfully.
I have a strong feeling, they have at least one contingency plan on the back burner, incase they do not reach that 1 million subscriber milestone. Most likely tied to MT or something similar. I would think a company spending that much would have multiple plans in place to sustain revenue. Just in case something goes wrong.
I can definitely see EA spending so much in an attempt to corner the market, that sounds like EA sure enough.
I agree if anyone can reach one million, it is a combination of EA and Bioware as well as Lucas Arts (another part of the partnership you left out). Which may even be the most important factor in growing and sustaining a player base.
There's a lot of factors building up here that could spell wild popularity for this game. Not the least of which is this being a star wars game.
What ever happens here, It will most definitely be interesting to watch.
For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson
Figures sounds right. And EA can afford them.
Compared to other MMO-only companies (Turbine, Cryptic, CCP, ...), EA produces, develops and sells so many products, ranging from PC to consoles, that those budget, those INSANE budgets can be surely allocated for such projects. Sadly EA requires also break-even faster than other companies, as short timed break-even also bring back high revenues that can be used to fund more ambitious projects.
MMO studies, as long as they don't have other streams of revenues, can allocate smaller budgets resulting in lower break-even points and sustainability with lower number of subscribers.
I agree that EA's expectations are really great, and that could be a problem as they could produce the most succesful MMO closing ever (Tabula Rasa has probably suffered the same fate before, but with lower numbers): they could close SW:TOR after a year or two because it reached ONLY 1,2 million subscribers... I agree that this is simply insane.
Thanks for the coverage Scott, that quote is truly mind blowing, I had no idea ... o.O
But this is the very point of MMO investment: totally insane numbers put up even VCs should be slapped hard for, estimations made one could cry about without anything solid to base it at WHEN they are made.
And on the other hand ... that drives the industry and investment and makes it so hard for small indie games to put something up. MMO's are quite sustainable and profitable if done on small scale and as long term investment. But I'll never forget the reactions of investors when we were shopping for funding and kept low and true: 20.000 subs would make a profit, 15.000 would break even. They laughed at us. Too small scale to be of any interest. Now if we'd become mad and aim (as if you can "aim" for subscription numbers literally) for 100.000 or higher, that would be interesting ...
How stupid can one be? Upscaling is something you can always do, but that you do once you have A PRODUCT to talk about and market reactions to it. And not when there is only "gambling paper" on the table. *shakes head*
Did we believe it is possible our design would attract a number as high as the one they wanted? Yes. But we were not willing to bet on it and wanted some solid business plan. This isn't what is well liked in the scene though.
Played: Pretty much any fantasy MMO, some did not even make it to release ...
Favorites: UO, EQ2, Vanguard, Wurm Online, Salem, ESO, Creativerse
Playing: ESO, Creativerse, Guild Wars 2
Anticipating: (sigh) ... maybe Ashes of Creation
I've said before and I'll say it again. ToR will never hit 2 millions subs, guaranteed.
Yes it is a Star Wars game, yes it has computer game fanatics who are fans of Bioware (but guess what most non involved gamers don't know who game companies are at all, don't forget that being on these types of forums makes you the minority of customers). But it also has things going against it.
It is being released on PC only correct? Bioware gets a ton of sales from console, so this is immediately a huge hit in numbers. Second it's an MMO. There are still a lot of people out there who won't touch a game if it's an MMO. It's different enough from the MMO genre to lose many MMO fans with it's extremely linear, extremely solo based design.
It is completely unrealistic to ever expect an MMO released in the west to get 2 million subscribers, let alone 2 million in sales.
This game might sell a million copies out the door (preorder and first month), this game might have 500k subscribers by the end of month 2. But to expect anything above that is insane.
EA has been killing itself lately, they don't know how to manage their business. So to spend this much on an MMO and to expect 2 million or more subscribers shows how out of touch they are with the markets. It is also why Activision/Blizzard (Vivendi) are taking over the monster that was once EA. They are now the company to beat and EA is the example of what not to do.
I would put money on the fact this game will not hit 2 million subs or even come close.
I gather it's the combination of the Star Wars IP and the developing company, Bioware. Any other company, and I'd given another SW MMO little thought, even as someone who liked the Star Wars movies (Empire Strikes Back, still one of my favorites). But I consider Bioware one of the few game companies who is as much on top of their game as a Blizzard is. They *might* be able to pull it off (emphasis on might).
I don't really like EA, I see it as a typical example of a big corporation, just as many top music company or top movie company, it's above anything else the big bucks and the pooha that goes with it that's primarily on the mind of its management, 1st, 2nd and 3rd place, making a product you can be proud of further down the list and creativity even farther down the chain. Saying that they need 1 mil subs to break even and being focused on 2 mil subs doesn't exactly help make me enthusiastic about a SW ToR. It's all big words and big goals and actually bad, bad PR.
But as the OP goes, look at the movies: sure, you have the blockbusters and the insane amounts of money they throw around to make it and announce it as if it's something you can be proud of. You'll always have those, but next to that you have a large number of movies that don't need insane amounts of money and still are successful. You only have to look at how a Hurt Locker beat Avatar at the Oscar nominations. It isn't the insane amounts that makes a great MMO, it's how smart you work with the money and resources you have available, the attractiveness of your idea for a MMO and the feats in it, plus how well you implement them in your MMO that wins the race, or at least that wins you a place for your MMO to exist and flourish.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
I don't think the problem will be reaching one million subscribers, the problem will be retaining such. There needs to be plenty of content and you can't have players reaching max level in a short period of time.
We will just have to wait and see, but it seems to me to be a huge amount of pressure on Bioware, enough to break the studio.
The real problem is that if EA fails, it could affect the industry for a while. Other companies may just give up on competing in the market at all. Pray to the gaming gods that SWTOR is a hit...
I don't know. look at the whole feverish internet dot com bubble that was such a hype a number of years back. You see the same in a smaller way now with MMO's, now that Blizzard has shown that 11mil subs is actually something that could be reached.
Now everyone else and their dog wants to make a super successful MMO*cough* = make insame amounts of money, whether that's realistic or not. A good burst of that dream bubble is maybe what the MMO market needs, to adjust expectations more to reality again instead of the realm of Investors' Fairytale Neverland where many publishing and investment companies are floating around in now.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
You do need to factor in box sales as well...but aside from that, that quote reveals this to be a huge roll of the dice for EA. 1 million subs just to break even?? That's insane. Given what I have seen and heard of the game so far it fails to deliver on many fronts...no one I know is even planning on buying it...anecdotal sure, but come on! Even an astoundingly successful launch (by any previous standard) of say 1m box sales and 500k retained subs in the first year won't PAY FOR THE GAME!...how nuts is that?
Excellent post Mr. Jennings!
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"Your pride, good sir, far exceeds your worth." -x3r0h
Oldest mmorpg.com member with the least amount of post counts. That counts for something, right?
I think my expectations are right on. All I want is to play kotor 3 online. Thats it. So no matter what happens, I'll be as happy as a pig in shit.
If you stand VERY still, and close your eyes, after a minute you can actually FEEL the universe revolving around PvP.
Maybe the MMO industry does need to pop the bubble. Maybe they need to prove that MMOs need sufficient funding and development time to be successful.
Look at the industry now. You have MMOs coming out left and right and most of them release in very ugly states. It seems that so many MMOs would do so much better if they would've held off release 6 months to a year.
I hope that this Bioware + EA combo gives Bioware the time and money needed to bring a successful MMO about. I mean, EA has the publishing prowess to get peoples attention and Bioware knows how to make a game. So if time and money are not problems, then I am confident that this game will rock the industry in one way or another.
Sure, this game is estimated ~150MM now. I wonder how much Blizzards next gen MMO is costing. There is a quote out there from dev on it saying "Its nice working with an unlimited budget" in reference to Blizzards next MMO.
I hope this is successful and is released in a ready state. I just want another game other than WoW to prove that MMOs need thier development time.
I say boycot this game & see the MMO market go back to a much healthier state.
But, thats just me thinking...
Im a vet gamer. Hell, I used to play by your dumb ass back when you were the raving lunatic Lum the Mad and Nighthawk, Greybeard, and all those other baboons from Joy of Villany made fun of you on their site. Im saying that only to illustrate that Im coming from likely the same viewpoint you are in alot of ways.
I see nothing revolutionary about this game. Nothing.
World of Warcraft was uncreative as all hell, but it made all content MMOs accessible to anyone due to the sheer lack of skill necessary to actually play. Without frustration there was no discouragement. Without discouragement there was no anger. Anger leads to hate. Hate leads to fear. Fear leads to JEALOUSY!
None of that existing, there was nothing holding gamers back. Everyone got involved.
SWTOR offers nothing more than the Lucas franchise and a Sith faction. Big effing whoop.
This game can rot for all I care. I'll play Earthrise... if its good.... or play a decent multiplayer game until a worthwhile MMO is released.... if that ever happens again.
Laudanum - Romance. Revenge. Revolution.
Crappy, petty people breed and raise crappy, petty kids.
I don't agree with the post at all... look, it doesn't matter how much you spend on an MMO theres a point in any software, mechanical, game, etc production where you need a certain amount of capital to break even. So whats the real problem here? The costs, correct? Because this game will be the most costly MMO of them all it needs the highest revenue stream.
This isn't complicated, but heres the thing, if BioWare could have made this game with less money, I'm sure they would have. BioWare is in a very fortunate position to have a company backing them that isn't shy to dig into their pockets to keep development alive. Could we have seen a game with one half the content release with half the costs? Yeah we could have, but thats not the game they wanted to produce, and maybe thats not the game we want to play.
Will it sell millions of copies? Chances are extremely good that it will. Will it keep millions of subscribers? I'm not sure, but if it doesn't I'm sure it will be a tremendous hit to EA financially and nothing more. Plenty of games -- from FFXI to WAR to AOC have had their issues and came well under their necessary subscriber mark at one point or another. The MMO world didn't end. If that happens again here, there will be no catastrophic event other than we lose a very expensive game from a very well respected developer.
It's all about advertising. EA needs to break the usual boundaries of MMO advertising and do TV spots and celeb endorsements right out of the gate.
EA needs to make sure that there isn't a single person in the world that hasn't heard of their game months before the game hits the shelves. They need people to start lining up in front of game stores the day before release just so that they can have the chance to be one of the first to enter this 'brave new world'.
They need to hype, hype, hype then hype some more and then... they have to deliver on that hype.
2 million + box sales shouldn't be a problem. It's retaining those numbers that will be the hardest part.
Here's my hope. Well, firstly, I hope the game is worth 150 million. Somehow I doubt it. I'm thinking its just another generic run of the mill clone. So, I hope its a great game.
More realisticially, I hope that once they come out with, yet another, failed WoW clone large publishers will take notice. They will leave this genre. Then, we can have innovation again like we were getting before these huge publishers jumped into the foray. Hopefully, we can get back on track with games like AC, UO, and classic EQ.
The worse thing that could happen is this is a well done WoW clone that does somehow get 2 million subscribers(almost impossible, because why would one leave WoW to play the exact same game?). We would never see the end of WoW clones.
Wow Scott ! Great article again !
Probably best MMO colmunist around ! Kudos
As for SWTOR...
One million active subscribers for one year ? Sorry , not gonna happen.
1. The WOW craze is over. Anyway most of WOW subscribers were non-gamers that just followed the new hip trend.
2. You have F2P MMOs now. Which are great alternative.
3. Big part of WOW appeal was that it appealed to girls and non gamers. It was CUTE. SWTOR is definetly not cute. And if it is it will turn off the serious gamers and SW fans.
4. SWTOR just doesnt look that great. I am loyal Bioware fan, but ...sorry. Based of what i seen so far , i can not see a great MMO in making.
The best what SWTOR may expect is 1 million subscribers at first month + 2-3 months after that. Later they may reach 500.000 and even that would be better than any other western MMO aside from WOW.
( BTW any information how many people play WOW today , not in asia ? )
I agree because I already said it and because of awesome formatting.
You're wrong about there being no consequences. Just look at the recent discussion about Farmville. Look at Raph Koster's feelings. He represents a big time publisher, and all their feelings. They are saying it takes too much to make MMORPGs, and they aren't getting the ROI that farmville and other social browser based games get. If SWTOR does fail we will see MMORPG development vanish. Heck, its already slowed considerably from 2 or 3 years ago.
Is that a bad thing? I don't think so. I think that will open the way for indie's to compete(sadly, it also opens us up to all the cheap asian games we have now). Everyone knows large publisher's have zero creativity. It always takes a new company to shake things up.
My only question is, do we as a MMO community want EA to succeed, break even, or fail? There are pros and cons to each of those.
Succeed - Naturally that means that we have a really good game on our hands that is retaining players and generating massive revenue. The con of this would be obvious, EAs mentality of MOAR will be upheld, and we may see companies who cannot afford to keep up (most of them) shrug their shoulders and move on to something else.
Break Even - This could mean that they didn't get the numbers they wanted, but in the long run, no one is losing their job over it, and quite a few players are enjoying the game. The drawback is that EAs mentality wouldn't be broken, and they would probably aim for an even higher budget game next time.
Fail - So the game tanks and cannot retain players after the first month. You can audibly hear the assholes of EAs managers puckering shut. The pro is that the biggest publisher gets a harsh lesson in overinvestment and has to shrink in size considerably to stay alive. The cons include massive layoffs, usually on the side of those who didn't make the decisions (programmers and designers) and a credible game designer, Bioware, takes a massive hit as well.
As a vengeful gamer frothing at the mouth, I really want to see EA fall flat on its face and return the market to smaller projects by game designers with new, great ideas. As a pragmatist, if EA fails, that isn't good for anyone (except of course my perverted sense of justice). The shrinking of our market, coupled with more and more programmers and developers going unemployed, might be too devastating to fully recover from.