Honestly I think WoW peaked with WLK and Ulduar. After that it's been pretty clear to me that the B-team is in charge now. They're taking the game in directions that really gut the original feel that so many of us enjoyed from the start.
"Because it's easier to nitpick something than to be constructive." -roach5000
I kinda had hit on this subject in another thread. It's my feeling that when the new crop of games TOR, GW2, FF comes out, WOW will definitly take a hit. I just think that the genre will balance itself and there won't be anymore of this king of the mmo hill. I believe that the new games will get their respective fanbase and WOW will retain a much smaller hardcore fanbase. I think the genre will finally have more diversification in games that will allow people to finally play a game that will cater to what they are actually looking for instead of playing a game because it's the biggest and so called most popular.
Exactly, MM, If each game took..lets say, 0.9 million players from the WOW eu and NA realms, WOW would pretty much be all but dead in the eyes of many, but would actually be where most MMOs of its caliber are- at under half a million.
...And so what if World of Warcraft is finally dying?
Blizzard has made BILLIONS on this game and will milk it for many more years.
They will also make many more BILLIONS this summer when Starcraft 2 launches.
So they start developing a new massive mmo once they see WoW has seen it's peak....
And...
They launch an all new 600 million dollar mmo with just a very small portion of the profit they have made on World of Warcraft.
Hmmmmm.
"Diablo Online." Let's just pretend for the sake of it that Blizzard launches "Diablo Online" with 600 million invested in it in the year 2014...
Insane graphics. Just as smooth game play mechanics as World of Warcraft had back in 2004. Offering even a wider range of play styles then WoW had.
What do you imagine a game like that would do?
Blow every other mmo out of the water for another 10 years? Break WoW's old subscription records?
Probably.
World of Warcraft "might" be slowly (and I mean very slowly) going down....
But Blizzard ain't going anywhere. They will just launch WoW 2, or Diablo Online, or maybe they will use all their WoW profits and buy out EA and launch Ultima Online 2. {insert sarcasm on the latter 'buying EA and launching UO2..} Who knows, but Blizzard is here to stay as a major force in the mmo market for many, many, many years to come. And they will definitely make even more super simplistic games to appeal to the lowest common denominator as they succeeded doing with WoW. So the WoW model isn't going anywhere even if WoW does. It will just come from Blizzard in a different form and/or game name.
...And so what if World of Warcraft is finally dying?
Blizzard has made BILLIONS on this game and will milk it for many more years.
They will also make many more BILLIONS this summer when Starcraft 2 launches.
So they start developing a new massive mmo once they see WoW has seen it's peak....
And...
They launch an all new 600 million dollar mmo with just a very small portion of the profit they have made on World of Warcraft.
Hmmmmm.
"Diablo Online." Let's just pretend for the sake of it that Blizzard launches "Diablo Online" with 600 million invested in it in the year 2014...
Insane graphics. Just as smooth game play mechanics as World of Warcraft had back in 2004. Offering even a wider range of play styles then WoW had.
What do you imagine a game like that would do?
Blow every other mmo out of the water for another 10 years? Break WoW's old subscription records?
Probably.
World of Warcraft "might" be slowly (and I mean very slowly) going down....
But Blizzard ain't going anywhere. They will just launch WoW 2, or Diablo Online, or maybe they will use all their WoW profits and buy out EA and launch Ultima Online 2. Who knows, but Blizzard is here to stay as a major force in the mmo market for many, many, many years to come. And they will definately make even more super simplistic games to appeal to the lowest common denominator as they succeeded doing with WoW. So the WoW model isn't going anywhere even if WoW does. It will just come from Blizzard in a different form and/or game name.
- Zaxx
How's that old saying go? Fool me once..shame on you. Fool me twice..shame on me, I really don't think that Blizzard will get even half the lemmings as they have right now with a new MMO. At that point in time the 90% of their playerbase that had WOW as their first look at MMO gaming will have gotten addicted to something else. I pretty much think only 1/10 of those are genuinely dumb enough to fall for the same trick twice.
Also..the game play mechanics are actually so "un-smooth" that the game at that point in time..and admittedly, to this day, requires addons for some to even play. I remember healing before healbot. It was worse than hard, it was terrible. Especially in 40 man raids...
All I saw was a 3% decline from March 2009 to March 2010. $314 million in march 2009, $306 million in march 2010. Those are just quarterly report numbers though, we would need to see more statements to see or predict any sort of trend.
Don't forget that they have added new revenue streams (for example the sparkly pony) and all the little cosmetic pets that assist the addicted in parting with their money.
All I saw was a 3% decline from March 2009 to March 2010. $314 million in march 2009, $306 million in march 2010. Those are just quarterly report numbers though, we would need to see more statements to see or predict any sort of trend.
Don't forget that they have added new revenue streams (for example the sparkly pony) and all the little cosmetic pets that assist the addicted in parting with their money.
Pet shop/ arena tourney/ account service profits accounted for somewhere around 30m, possibly 40 or 50m, of that revenue. Businesses are really good at stuff like that.
They launch an all new 600 million dollar mmo with just a very small portion of the profit they have made on World of Warcraft.
Hmmmmm.
"Diablo Online." Let's just pretend for the sake of it that Blizzard launches "Diablo Online" with 600 million invested in it in the year 2014...
Insane graphics. Just as smooth game play mechanics as World of Warcraft had back in 2004. Offering even a wider range of play styles then WoW had.
I don't see Blizzard making insane graphics, that has never been their tactics before. All previous Blizzard games have had rather average graphics, insane graphics needs a state of the art computer and that makes it impossible to sell millions of copies.
Also, Morhaime said it is a new IP, that takes out SC and Diablo.
I am not saying Blizzards next MMO can't sell millions of copies, that is a possibility but past success and money invested is no sure way to get millions of players.
Not even a sequel is a sure success, Asherons call were very popular but AC2 were a disaster.
With Kaplan I doubt Blizz will fail miserably but I also doubt that they can make what they did with Wow another time. 2 million US and EU players sounds possible even though anything from 1.5 to 8 could happen (and I am only counting people paying monthly fees there).
And I seriously doubt that they will gamble 600 millions, 150 maybe.
Still, Blizzard is not going to just lie on their backs and watch Wow slowly lose subs, they will try to get the subs back in their new game, and it will be interesting to see if they can do it or not.
The market will be a lot harder in a few years, the future will be very interesting for MMO players.
I don't see Blizzard making insane graphics, that has never been their tactics before. All previous Blizzard games have had rather average graphics, insane graphics needs a state of the art computer and that makes it impossible to sell millions of copies.
Also, Morhaime said it is a new IP, that takes out SC and Diablo.
I am not saying Blizzards next MMO can't sell millions of copies, that is a possibility but past success and money invested is no sure way to get millions of players.
Not even a sequel is a sure success, Asherons call were very popular but AC2 were a disaster.
With Kaplan I doubt Blizz will fail miserably but I also doubt that they can make what they did with Wow another time. 2 million US and EU players sounds possible even though anything from 1.5 to 8 could happen (and I am only counting people paying monthly fees there).
And I seriously doubt that they will gamble 600 millions, 150 maybe.
Still, Blizzard is not going to just lie on their backs and watch Wow slowly lose subs, they will try to get the subs back in their new game, and it will be interesting to see if they can do it or not.
The market will be a lot harder in a few years, the future will be very interesting for MMO players.
No one can predict the future but it is always amusing to guess what will happen.
On topic: I am surprised Blizzard could equal the 300+ million dollars in 2010 they set in 2009. Why? Wotlk launched a mere 6 weeks before that 2009 quarter, so it is clear they sold much more expansion boxes in 2009 than they could have done in 2010. The shop didn't include the new mount yet, so there was not much difference in the shop's revenus either.
That can only mean their subs were on par or even slightly better than the highest point of the Wotlk launch. The reasons may be a better distribution in China, even more Russian servers (19 now instead of the 14 in late 2008) and I guess the final Raids on the Lich King + the succesful launch of the dungeon crawling. Finally there is the complete lack of decent alternative play for the mass market.
The press conference this time clearly stated "over" 11.5 million while the one of 2009 stated "around" 11.5.
No matter what, it shows the game has a staying power beyond anything else in the PC market.
- Although...
@Luke666: Your analysis is quite on top I think. But MMO's play will change in the next 3 to 4 years. Single paid MMORPG's will be prety much "dead" by that time. We will grow to an "on line games" kind of play.
The borders of "mmo" and "mmorpg" will have faded and people will play much more different kind of on line games. People will pay for "global service packages" including different games, ranging from on line adventure type games (SW), to rts competitions (SC2), dungeon crawlers (D3) and very casual on line games (10 times more casual than WOW).
So it will be very difficult to "measure" the success of one game in the future as indeed - like you mentioned - even WOW will be included in the global package of BattleNet choices.
That's the end goal of Blizzard: offering through their sub services 4 to 5 games in which you pay to play including other on liner services like I-pod platforms (AH, armory), Facebook etc (achievements, rankings, ...)
The end of the traditional paid mmorpg is very much near. As such WOW is indeed no longer a traditional mmorpg, it was and now is the first bridge to "general" paid on line games (which will still have an advantage to limited browser games in the next decade).
Looking back at it: it's a logic path, because mmorpg's in their old core design are very much too limited to support massive subscriptions whatever their form or shape.
Its embarrassing when an NPC compliments you in an MMo, the only relevant, cool and epic things come from players whispering you Grtz, mate, we did it. copyright Pilnkplonk
Comments
Honestly I think WoW peaked with WLK and Ulduar. After that it's been pretty clear to me that the B-team is in charge now. They're taking the game in directions that really gut the original feel that so many of us enjoyed from the start.
"Because it's easier to nitpick something than to be constructive." -roach5000
I kinda had hit on this subject in another thread. It's my feeling that when the new crop of games TOR, GW2, FF comes out, WOW will definitly take a hit. I just think that the genre will balance itself and there won't be anymore of this king of the mmo hill. I believe that the new games will get their respective fanbase and WOW will retain a much smaller hardcore fanbase. I think the genre will finally have more diversification in games that will allow people to finally play a game that will cater to what they are actually looking for instead of playing a game because it's the biggest and so called most popular.
Exactly, MM, If each game took..lets say, 0.9 million players from the WOW eu and NA realms, WOW would pretty much be all but dead in the eyes of many, but would actually be where most MMOs of its caliber are- at under half a million.
...And so what if World of Warcraft is finally dying?
Blizzard has made BILLIONS on this game and will milk it for many more years.
They will also make many more BILLIONS this summer when Starcraft 2 launches.
So they start developing a new massive mmo once they see WoW has seen it's peak....
And...
They launch an all new 600 million dollar mmo with just a very small portion of the profit they have made on World of Warcraft.
Hmmmmm.
"Diablo Online." Let's just pretend for the sake of it that Blizzard launches "Diablo Online" with 600 million invested in it in the year 2014...
Insane graphics. Just as smooth game play mechanics as World of Warcraft had back in 2004. Offering even a wider range of play styles then WoW had.
What do you imagine a game like that would do?
Blow every other mmo out of the water for another 10 years? Break WoW's old subscription records?
Probably.
World of Warcraft "might" be slowly (and I mean very slowly) going down....
But Blizzard ain't going anywhere. They will just launch WoW 2, or Diablo Online, or maybe they will use all their WoW profits and buy out EA and launch Ultima Online 2. {insert sarcasm on the latter 'buying EA and launching UO2..} Who knows, but Blizzard is here to stay as a major force in the mmo market for many, many, many years to come. And they will definitely make even more super simplistic games to appeal to the lowest common denominator as they succeeded doing with WoW. So the WoW model isn't going anywhere even if WoW does. It will just come from Blizzard in a different form and/or game name.
- Zaxx
How's that old saying go? Fool me once..shame on you. Fool me twice..shame on me, I really don't think that Blizzard will get even half the lemmings as they have right now with a new MMO. At that point in time the 90% of their playerbase that had WOW as their first look at MMO gaming will have gotten addicted to something else. I pretty much think only 1/10 of those are genuinely dumb enough to fall for the same trick twice.
Also..the game play mechanics are actually so "un-smooth" that the game at that point in time..and admittedly, to this day, requires addons for some to even play. I remember healing before healbot. It was worse than hard, it was terrible. Especially in 40 man raids...
Don't forget that they have added new revenue streams (for example the sparkly pony) and all the little cosmetic pets that assist the addicted in parting with their money.
http://www.speedtest.net/result/7300033012
Pet shop/ arena tourney/ account service profits accounted for somewhere around 30m, possibly 40 or 50m, of that revenue. Businesses are really good at stuff like that.
I don't see Blizzard making insane graphics, that has never been their tactics before. All previous Blizzard games have had rather average graphics, insane graphics needs a state of the art computer and that makes it impossible to sell millions of copies.
Also, Morhaime said it is a new IP, that takes out SC and Diablo.
I am not saying Blizzards next MMO can't sell millions of copies, that is a possibility but past success and money invested is no sure way to get millions of players.
Not even a sequel is a sure success, Asherons call were very popular but AC2 were a disaster.
With Kaplan I doubt Blizz will fail miserably but I also doubt that they can make what they did with Wow another time. 2 million US and EU players sounds possible even though anything from 1.5 to 8 could happen (and I am only counting people paying monthly fees there).
And I seriously doubt that they will gamble 600 millions, 150 maybe.
Still, Blizzard is not going to just lie on their backs and watch Wow slowly lose subs, they will try to get the subs back in their new game, and it will be interesting to see if they can do it or not.
The market will be a lot harder in a few years, the future will be very interesting for MMO players.
No one can predict the future but it is always amusing to guess what will happen.
On topic: I am surprised Blizzard could equal the 300+ million dollars in 2010 they set in 2009. Why? Wotlk launched a mere 6 weeks before that 2009 quarter, so it is clear they sold much more expansion boxes in 2009 than they could have done in 2010. The shop didn't include the new mount yet, so there was not much difference in the shop's revenus either.
That can only mean their subs were on par or even slightly better than the highest point of the Wotlk launch. The reasons may be a better distribution in China, even more Russian servers (19 now instead of the 14 in late 2008) and I guess the final Raids on the Lich King + the succesful launch of the dungeon crawling. Finally there is the complete lack of decent alternative play for the mass market.
The press conference this time clearly stated "over" 11.5 million while the one of 2009 stated "around" 11.5.
No matter what, it shows the game has a staying power beyond anything else in the PC market.
- Although...
@Luke666: Your analysis is quite on top I think. But MMO's play will change in the next 3 to 4 years. Single paid MMORPG's will be prety much "dead" by that time. We will grow to an "on line games" kind of play.
The borders of "mmo" and "mmorpg" will have faded and people will play much more different kind of on line games. People will pay for "global service packages" including different games, ranging from on line adventure type games (SW), to rts competitions (SC2), dungeon crawlers (D3) and very casual on line games (10 times more casual than WOW).
So it will be very difficult to "measure" the success of one game in the future as indeed - like you mentioned - even WOW will be included in the global package of BattleNet choices.
That's the end goal of Blizzard: offering through their sub services 4 to 5 games in which you pay to play including other on liner services like I-pod platforms (AH, armory), Facebook etc (achievements, rankings, ...)
The end of the traditional paid mmorpg is very much near. As such WOW is indeed no longer a traditional mmorpg, it was and now is the first bridge to "general" paid on line games (which will still have an advantage to limited browser games in the next decade).
Looking back at it: it's a logic path, because mmorpg's in their old core design are very much too limited to support massive subscriptions whatever their form or shape.
Its embarrassing when an NPC compliments you in an MMo, the only relevant, cool and epic things come from players whispering you Grtz, mate, we did it. copyright Pilnkplonk