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One Month In: A Look at the Numbers

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  • KaocanKaocan Member UncommonPosts: 1,270

    Originally posted by choujiofkono

    Originally posted by Kaocan

     Personal Bazzar yes, but there is only a very small percentage of players that actually leave thier characters logged inwhen they are not online. This is all common sense,

         >>>>>>>>  you are agreeing with him.   He has a pretty good point if you don't try to split hairs down to nothing. 

       >>>>>>>>  "buts" are useless in an intelligent debate

    >>>>>>>>   this is completely made up and not true of 95% of every MMO I have ever played.  A ton of folks leave an MMO on all the time and even run multiple characters which SE was careful to specifically address in their 30 day additional giveaway.  MMO gamers are compulsive in that way.  I was just reading a post from someone on here that got caught fishing with a bot while they weren't playing.  It's not that far of a stretch that they'd be doing something you'd actually be allowed to do. 

    >>>>>>>  Your opinion is not necessarily common sense.  In fact, it's probably not based on your taste in comparison to the rating this game has recieved on a dozen internet sites.  Common sense is common, as in, majority. 

    Someone could just as easily say that 1/3 of the current players on each server were actually just one player playing more than one character.  There is no way to prove or disprove this and so it's not even worth debating over. 

    Numbers really are just food for chat until the free time has expired and then we all see just how much people really like the game.  If there is a downward spiral in numbers before the free giveaway has expired then it's reasonable to assume there is going to be a sharp falloff when it actually costs more cash to play.  It's all theory. 

     Now see Chou here is fun to debate with, at least he tries to come up with some valid points instead of blind headbashing on the ignorant wall. I may not agree with everythign he says, but at least he is willing to think and see an issue from other perspectives.

    And yes, I was actually agreeing with him on the bazzar issue, I was however clarifying it in more detail though, and thats where the 'but' came in. I dont agree that 'buts' are useless in an intelligent conversation, without them there is no chance of alternative theories, just two views beating against one another. Once you can see the 'buts' in a debate you have the ability to see the issue from the other side.

    And the info of 95% of other MMOs may be the case sure, and there may be people who do so in FFXIV sure. I know I have two seperate accounts and can play both at the same time here, as I have in every game I've played over the past 8-10 years. Most games have AFK timers built in which automatically disconnects them if they have no actions performed after a specific time interval. I'd imagine SE will eventually do the same here, especially if they impliment an AH later down the road.

    As for being made up, no. If I look at the numbers you guys are suppling here, 1500-1800 approx at any given time, and then walk around the cities in the game and count them, I will usually come back with less than 100-150 (in all 3 cities combined). Doing simple math thats less than 10%. So is the statement there is only a very small percentage of players that actually leave thier characters logged in when they are not online made up? Or is it true when the numbers point ot less than 10%?? You tell me. You can guess all you want about this outside the game sure, but log in and see for yourself, count them yourself, talk to them yourself (not all the people are really AFK just because they are standing in one spot for more than 2 minutes) and you will see its NOT like some people want to play it off to be.

    And to clarify the term common sense, it is not the majority approved belief, common sense is any idea that his held to be common to the individual. To me its common sense that you dont tailgate the car in front of you when your dirving 65+ MPH, but trust me, here in Atlanta, thats obviously NOT the majority belief. Under your thought process the common sense would be to ride the ass of the car in front of you all the time because thats what MOST people here do, I contend your wrong though.

    But, and I yes used but again, you last statement of number is 100% true. They are just food for thought, and should be taken as that only, anything this early in the numbers game however is just speculation at best. You know that, I know that, and everyone else knows that. There is always going to be any number of ways you can twist and turn any dataset in order to use it to support your presentation. It's all theory in the end though, exactly.

    (DISCLAIMER - The use of the word YOU in the above post is not directed at any one person in particular, but towards those who fall into the category itself - there is no personal attack here, neither intentional nor implied.)

  • FleshMaskFleshMask Member UncommonPosts: 249

    Wow, you are fighting over a game...

     

    and it's not even a good game either...

     

    Go outside, makes friends, get laid...

    then come back and find this whole fight worthless.

    image

  • CorresCorres Member Posts: 132

    it will never be f2p. SE rather shuts down every server than making it f2p.

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Member CommonPosts: 10,910

    I'm sure somebody has already posted this, but you really need more information to determine what's going on with the game.  The subscription plan is monthly, and you only have one month of information.  Plus you need the number of active subscriptions, and it would be ideal to have the number of those accounts that actually logged in during the month.

    This would be very interesting to see about 3 months out, then 6 months out.  Find out what their steady state of sales drops to (or increases to if they fix a bunch of stuff).

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • Brone87Brone87 Member Posts: 244

    Originally posted by Robokapp

    there...are no subscriptions yet.

    not until november 30th. right now all the players are playing for free a P2P. So when the P2p truly becomes P2P, it'll destabilize again. That's why i said if they drop the subscription and keep it B2P, they'll preserve this little balance they kinda have now where new sales kinda cover for lost subscribers.

     

    adding a monthly fee to the game now will crush it.

    Let me first clarify and state that I have not played this game at all and had no interest in the title at any point in time. Let me also say that FFXI was my second MMO ever and I can probably pull more memorable experiences from that game than any other MMO I have played to date.

    But god damn, how scary is it that a company, who released a great 3d MMO experience back when 3d MMO's were niche, best option is to go B2P because they borked the core gameplay design and release up so bad.

    I pray that Rifts and GW2 really take note of this because those are my only hope for the foreseeable future.

  • NekrataalNekrataal Member Posts: 557

    Originally posted by Robokapp

    there...are no subscriptions yet.

    not until november 30th. right now all the players are playing for free a P2P. So when the P2p truly becomes P2P, it'll destabilize again. That's why i said if they drop the subscription and keep it B2P, they'll preserve this little balance they kinda have now where new sales kinda cover for lost subscribers.

     

    adding a monthly fee to the game now will crush it.

     I agree.

    Personnally, I'm not giving one $ to SE for this game until the following features are added:

    - Mailbox

    - Option to buy more retainers

    - Inventory sorting

    - An AH or at the very least a good search fonction added the market wards(which I doubt what they are going to add in Nov-Dec will be. I'm confident it'll still be lacking the accessibility of a true AH.)

    - Faster window response time( Taking several minutes just to sell your trash to a vendor is unacceptable & beyond annoying. Thats just an exemple, everything takes forever...)

    I'm not even playing anymore, free or not, its not worth the time right now.

  • Darkheart00Darkheart00 Member Posts: 521

    Originally posted by Robokapp

    5 week sales list. the sales are now stable.

     

    http://gamrreview.vgchartz.com/sales/35106/final-fantasy-xiv-online/

     

     


    Final Fantasy XIV Online Sales (PC)

    var myExportComponent = new FusionChartsExportObject("fcExporter1", "../../FusionCharts/FCExporter.swf"); myExportComponent.Render("fcexpDiv");


    Final Fantasy XIV Online Sales (PC) Sales History (Launches Aligned)

    Summary of weekly unit sales from launch broken down by region (for first 10 weeks of sale)


    Week

    Americas

    Japan

    EMEAA

    Worldwide

    Running Total

    1

    223,194

    N/A

    23,918

    247,112

    247,112

    2

    50,897

    N/A

    10,419

    61,316

    308,428

    3

    20,547

    N/A

    4,936

    25,483

    333,911

    4

    15,998

    N/A

    2,158

    18,156

    352,067

    5

    16,172

    N/A

    1,727

    17,899

    369,966

    Ten Week Totals:

    326,808

    0

    43,158

    369,966

     

    Lifetime Totals:

    326,808

    0

    43,158

    369,966


     


     


    time spent in-game by those who bought already is also kinda stable at a slightly negative trend.


     



     


     


    Soooo...I think it'll stabilize in a month or two. Perhaps F2P is a better deal for them? without item shop though, just with box sales.

    Actually it looks like active xfire player base has dropped by half in last weeks and if you extrapolate the various trackers. It looks active player base is no more than 100k and couple that with poor box sales not a good sign for SE. Atleast WAR and AoC made back their money in box sales which i doubt SE can with 400k sales figure (budget is rumoured at 100mill+).

  • VolkonVolkon Member UncommonPosts: 3,748

    If XFire is any indicator, then the original Guild Wars is kicking FFXIVs butt:

     

    http://www.xfire.com/games/gw/Guild_Wars/

     

    ... so I'd take that with a grain of salt. I suspect that people using XFire are a specific portion of the population... much less casual than the majority for what that's worth.

     

    Not pro or anti FFXIV, just an observation.

    Oderint, dum metuant.

  • LowdosLowdos Member Posts: 644

    Yes, I think its safe to safe FFXIV isn't the runnaway success story most of us FFXI fans were waiting for.  I suspect a majority of the servers will be on life-support (population wise) until the PS3 verson is released - If / when that may be.

  • Darkheart00Darkheart00 Member Posts: 521

    Originally posted by Volkon

    If XFire is any indicator, then the original Guild Wars is kicking FFXIVs butt:

     

    http://www.xfire.com/games/gw/Guild_Wars/

     

    ... so I'd take that with a grain of salt. I suspect that people using XFire are a specific portion of the population... much less casual than the majority for what that's worth.

     

    Not pro or anti FFXIV, just an observation.

    Which is not suprising since GW is the 2nd largest massive multiplayer rpg after WoW in terms of box sales and active player base from 2006-2008 (it had 2 mill active players at one point where as XIV did not even sell .5 million)

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