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GW2 may threaten the whole subscription model of the industry.
Creslin321
Member Posts: 5,359
If GW2 becomes the dominant MMORPG I am fairly convinced that it will destroy the subscription based model. Here's why...
GW1, while successful, was not really an MMORPG as most of us think about it. The key differentiation was the fact that it did not have a persistent world. GW1 was more like an online coop and PvP RPG than an MMORPG.
GW2 however, is much more in line with what we traditionally think of as an MMORPG. It has a persistent world, not all instanced, etc. etc. So this really puts it more in direct competition with MMORPGs like WoW and LOTR.
So now let's consider the possibility that GW2 turns out to be great and becomes the industry leader. Many people will argue that players will play GW2, but still retain their subscriptions to other games, as such it won't have much of an impact. I disagree with this. While it is true that some truly hardcore players may play two MMORPGs at once, most of us simply don't have enough time for that. We will pick our MMORPG and stick to it.
That said, if GW2 becomes the industry leader, then most other MMORPGs released will likely be inferior to GW2 much like most MMORPGs released nowadays are inferior to WoW. How could these MMORPGs possibly compete with GW2 charging a subscription when the industry leader does not? It's not possible, no one is going to buy a subpar product that is more expensive than the industry leader. They will be forced to be F2P or B2P, no other options.
So in conclusion, what I think makes GW2 dangerous is that it is bargain priced AND it looks like it will be a quality product. All imitators MUST be priced below or equal to the industry leader to have a hope of succeeding. I don't see how the subscription model will survive (except for maybe in very small niches) if GW2 becomes the industry leader.
Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?
Comments
If this happens, you may be correct. If GW2 can prove that it is feasible and profitable to operate a high-quality, AAA MMO with only box sales and MT, it could change the face of MMO gaming.
But that's a big IF.
I want a mmorpg where people have gone through misery, have gone through school stuff and actually have had sex even. -sagil
Key word in your post being "IF" of course.
If they become a market leader, and can deliver a product that is equal to or exceed the pay to play model, then I'll have to agree.
But their model is not as inexpensive as one might suppose, they still have to generate revenue and the do so with expansions that almost (but not quite) equal the cost of a sub MMO over time
But I will agree, if they do pull both of these off, we will see future MMO's under pressure to beat this model.
But again, its a big couple of "IF's"
"True friends stab you in the front." | Oscar Wilde
"I need to finish" - Christian Wolff: The Accountant
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
i made a thread awhile back similar to yours and it got locked so don't be too surprised
No offense but I would wait to see how GW2 turns out before you crown it king. You might find out you are being ruled by a stillborn.
Playing: Tera, BF3, ME3
Waiting on: Guild Wars 2
The difference is that every F2P MMO released to date has not been an AAA title that is high enough quality to challenge the industry leader. Most F2P games realize they are not as high enough quality as the big boys, and price themselves accordingly.
GW2 on the other hand "looks" to be exteremely high quality, and it has an experienced team behind it. Only time will tell if it can live up to its hype, but if it does the subscription model is in trouble.
Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?
No crowning
. My post says it "MAY" threaten and "IF" it becomes the industry leader. Basically, all I'm saying is that IF GW2 wins the market, then the subscription model is dead. Or at least the two part payment subscription model (buy game, then pay subscription fee).
Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?
Sorry, so much GW2 love has clouded my brain. I think it will be successful but it won't beat WoW. As lon as WoW is king subscription will still rule.
Playing: Tera, BF3, ME3
Waiting on: Guild Wars 2
I'm not so sure, GW1 didn't really change people's minds. Compare what it offered to other games from around that time, and I bet it's on par with comparing GW2 and other current games, in terms of affecting the p2p model I doubt there will be much difference this time around either.
If anything it might affect the f2p market a bit, I know i'm a f2per and anxiously awaiting this game ^^;
It doesn't even have to become the industry leader. I think there's enough hype for the game, and enough improvements on GW1, and some real innovations in the MMO genre... the game has a great chance of standing out and making an impact. F2P is already ravaging the industry... I think B2P is a much better option. The larger initial investment will filter out a lot of douchebags and kiddies.
Agreed, the leader sets the rules after all
.
Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?
You forget that more people play f2p games than play p2p...
That's very true, but remember that GW1 has no persistent world. It was more of a lobby/adventure game kind of like Diablo but with much more full featured and graphical lobbies (and PvP). Also, I think that WoW was a "better" game than GW1 in a lot of ways.
But now I think WoW is a bit vulnerable. Its technology has aged to the point where it looks very dated and I would surmise that several WoW players would like to try something new. No one can know the future, but from what I've seen, I think that GW2 has the greatest chance to dethrone WoW of any game I've seen so far. We'll just have to see what happens.
Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?
Instead of comparing user numbers, compare revenue. Revenue is ultimately what matters. F2P requires many more users to create the revenue that P2P generates from one user.
I'm fairly certain you will find that WoW crushes all F2P MMORPGs (probably the whole industry put together) in revenue.
Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?
No crowning
. My post says it "MAY" threaten and "IF" it becomes the industry leader. Basically, all I'm saying is that IF GW2 wins the market, then the subscription model is dead. Or at least the two part payment subscription model (buy game, then pay subscription fee).
Sorry, so much GW2 love has clouded my brain. I think it will be successful but it won't beat WoW. As lon as WoW is king subscription will still rule.
Agreed, the leader sets the rules after all
.
You forget that more people play f2p games than play p2p...
And how many of them invest money in the game? Which is more profitable?Well, logic would tell us that if MORE companies choose to put out f2p games (which is true), then this would be because they believe they will be getting MORE money from this payment model than a subscription model. LOTRO and D&D both increase profitability significantly with their swith to f2p.
I think its funny how many people seem to see GW2 as some sort of savior of MMOs. We have no idea how the game actually plays at this point in time. Until we get our hands on it, the best anyone can do is guess. Based on my memories of GW1, I honestly don't expect anything groundbreaking.
And BTW, the payment model they are using isn't anything unique. There are many F2P games on the market at this point... I actually think of the GW2 payment model as a WORSE deal than what you get with a game like LOTRO (which is also a AAA F2P MMO).
That's very true, but I think the reason for that dynamic is that WoW utterly dominates the p2p space. The market has judged WoW to be the best product, and it gives them the privilege of charging the highest fee.
Games that still survive on the p2p model are basically saying "we are just as good as WoW" simply by the virtue of costing as much. Some games survive, especially ones that are highly differentiated from WoW like EvE (they hit different market segments). On the other hand, F2P games can draw from a huge audience, and people are willing to accept a lot less from their service.
Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?
Way to much speculation for a game that doesn't even have a release date. I've made this point before, and i'll do it again. GW1 apparently had 5-6 million box sales, find the figure of how many box sales WoW has and i'm sure you'll realize that its probably at least 5 or 6 times the amount.
Regardless, WoW has proven that if you make a quality game that makes it WORTH it to subscribe monthly than the game will be a success. Saying that DDO and LOTRO made better revenues because they went F2P is just saying that the game wasn't worth it to a player to pay for a subscription.
IMO to me anyways it signals that GW2 will probably not be a game that you can play on a constant basis, if they made the game at such quality that it could merit monthly subscription than it would. GW1 was an ok game, I played it, but would i pay for a monthly subscription for that game? Hell no! Would i pay a monthly subscription for diablo? Hello no. Pretty much the same could be said about any f2p game, and thats why they have that model.
Do not let yourself be governed by hype, sure they act like the pro and mature developers now, but we can only judge their game by the finished product.
Plus, GW2 and WoW might actually be able to live side by side (One is subscription and the other is buy to play, it is feasible).
Now, if apples were the dominant MMORPG... (Couldn't help myself
)
http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=24518
8.6 million retail sales of WoW, including all expansions.... Seems like your figures are WAY off. What you're forgetting is that only 4.5 million people in the US and Europe had to buy WoW to play it. The bulk of the players are in Asia, where they don't buy the game, and they pay for time in the game. Which also makes WoW's claims of 12million subscriptions kinda bullshit.
Just imagine if WoW suddenly said they were removing their subscription fee. What do you think would happen to the industry? I'm pretty sure the subscription model would be dead in that case. EvE may survive just because it is so different, but all fantasy MMO's couldn't survive with a subscription model.
Basically, that's the only point I'm making. If the industry leader does not charge a subscription fee, I don't think the challengers will be able to.
Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?
GW 2 wont dominate the market, WoW players love WoW thats all, mostly those ppl are casual players who likes casual gameplay where they can go solo lvl, easy craft, some pvp, some dugeon, some raid, just a bit of everything. And they also love grinding. GW 2 is a lot improved GW 1 dont forget about that. GW 2 wont beat WoW, Areanet was never trying to do that, they are trying to do theirs games, somethin different, it will be for me something like EvE or AoC or other mmos which dont have so many fans as WoW but they are succsesfull and have its fans.
WoW simply dominates the market cause they just have good marketing + some improvements. Thats all, they dont do more than is neccesary they mostly do less than players would want but not so less to dissapoint majority of em. Other games are trying to do best game from start and thats wrong, same with players they except game which has more content than WoW (or any other old game) from start.. Thats just stupid. GW 1 was one of the best games so far with nice fanbase so lets hope GW 2 wil increase that fanbase to some realy cool numbers.
P.S. Imo noone would play game which would want so hard to "kill" WoW because it would be even more grindy, even more easier, even with way more horrible community than WoW has. That would be just wrong game.
Played: Lineage 2,Guild Wars 1 and 2, Age of Conan, Ragnarok Online, LOTRO, World of Warcraft, League of Legends, EvE online
Tried: KAL Online, Face of Mankind, ROSE online
Playing: CS:GO
How do you know?
All genre included, or only few genres to inflates the F2P numbers? (such as this study that tried to pull that conclusion by comparing Farmville+F2P MMORPGs to P2P MMORPGs) Are you mixing B2P with F2P?
Yup...and if my grandmother suddenly grew balls, I would have to call her grandpa