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Why do so many people insist Blizzard fudges Sub numbers?

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  • andrzcieiandrzciei Member Posts: 39

    Originally posted by Cecropia

    Originally posted by Volkmar

    What it is with this myth of the Asian person that, for some weird reason, plays only one hour a month?? Where are these weird guys? do you have any proof of their existence?

    No????

    So how can you say there is a difference? Do you know what is the average pay for a Chinese person when compared to someone living in the West?

     

    No????

    Neither do I! This system was not decided by Blizzard, EVERY game in there works in the SAME way, so why are you giving flak to Blizzard because they use a business model that is "The Standard" in that part of the world?

    I understand that's how things work in some parts of the world. However, counting someone who basically puts a quarter into the game everytime it says "insert coin" as an equal to someone who is willing to agree to a certain level of commitment to that game is just sketchy behaviour. It's irrelevant how much money on average the former makes.

    As has been said, break the number up so we can see how many people are actually paying a monthly subscription, and how many pay by the hour. But, why in the world would Blizzard want to do that, eh?

    Fair enough.

    For the sake of comparability over time, the number of accounts is one time series.  The number of accounts by type can be another time series, but that time series might not be useful, as it does not easily translate to income.  Any form of account that is not monthly can mean anything from $1 to $10000 per month.

    So Blizz publish another annual statistics, income.  That, along side with number of accounts, provides 2 time series for interested parties to work out whatever napkin maths they want.  Blizz has published what is required by the law, anything else is optional for them.  We have no right to demand full transparency.  Hell, without wikileaks, we know practically nothing about the governments that tax me half of our earnings through various excuses.

  • andrzcieiandrzciei Member Posts: 39

    Originally posted by adam_nox

    It only really matters how many are in the united states, when comparing numbers between mmos.  There's a history and distribution centricity to the US mmo market that makes proliferation of an mmo in other areas less relevant, at least to me. 

    One mmo might only be distributed in the US and have 300k, then WoW might have 1.5 mil in the US (we don't know), and that's a good comparison.  What is NOT a good comparison is comparing that 300k number to wow's 13 mil or whatever it is globally.

    Oh really?  At the modern age where every western company is trying to get out of America or wither, you feel that only things that matters in USA counts?  The land that is slowly dying is the only part of the world you focus your attention to?

    Lets try this,

    --> only automobiles manufactured in USA counts, when comparing numbers between car manufacturers

    --> only money raised in the NY exchange counts, when comparing stock markets

    --> only people born in the US counts, when comparing world population

    Time to wake up.  The days of US as a world power is coming to an end.  In terms of economic power, US is fading into a second rate power.  In terms of long term growth, US is over, weighing down by its decades of debt building.

    Back to the topic:  The future grounds for expansion in MMO, or just about any games, is in the rising countries, where people are getting richer and richer, and more willing to spend on luxuries, with little need to worry about failing mortgage and credit card debts.

  • RydesonRydeson Member UncommonPosts: 3,852

         And Farmville has over 80 MILLION users..  Does it really matter?  Why are people so hard up to equating Quantity = Quality..  The two are exclusive of each other.. One does not equate to the other..  Grrrrrr  I personally like jazz and classic rock, and I could care less how many cd's are sold..  Michael Jackson is the ONLY artist to have a cd (Thriller) sell over 50 million copies.. Does that make it the "best" music ever?  NO..  Backstreet Boys sold over 40 million with Milleninium.. NOW that is scarey.. I can think of dozens of other artist that sold far less cd's to listen to..  LOL   I guess Technically IF people want to use numbers of pure sales Jacko was the most seccessful.. However, I think Elvis, Beatles and Johnny Cash would have something to say about that...

    Happy Holidays :)

  • ThomasN7ThomasN7 87.18.7.148Member CommonPosts: 6,690

    Well first of all there is no denying WoW has millions playing but exactly how many millions is flawed.

    1. Many users have multiple accounts so they may say they have 12 million subscriptions they could really only have 5-8 million players world wide.

    2. There is no way a pay by the hour in China is a subscription model. China has more of a rmt business model.

    30
  • alloinalloin Member UncommonPosts: 135

    I don't know about you, but I prefer that companies at least be somewhat honest if they're trying to get my business.

    I lol'd hard !!!!!

    Colgate give u sparkling teeth if u brush em 3 times a day !!! (i've yet to see someone with sparkling teeth)

    We are all satoshi!
  • andrzcieiandrzciei Member Posts: 39

    Originally posted by Kyleran

    Originally posted by andrzciei


    Originally posted by Ceridith


    Originally posted by Xerith

    Why does it matter if Blizzard has 100 subsribers or 10 trillion subscribers? The only people I ever see going around attempting to call out Blizzard for lying and cheating are those that are either completely jealous over what Blizzard has accomplished over the past few years, or are jealous over the fact that the game they are die hard fans of will never come close to the subscription numbers that WoW has. To everyone else it really should  not matter.

    If you like WoW then be happy it has a large player base, if you dont like it, then be happy whatever game you are playing has enough subscription numbers to keep it active. Games out there do not need millions of subscribers to be a successful game.

    So criticism means jelousy?

    That's a rather skewed perception.

    I play wow, shocking, I know. I don't hate it, but I don't think it's as amazing as some people try to spin it either. It's a decent game for what it is, but it could still be a heck of a lot better too.

    I argue against the subscribers that Blizzard keeps trying to claim, because they are distorting the truth by omission of facts. Intentional misdirection, omission of facts, and plain old dishonesty is something that just generally bothers me out of principle, whether it's a person, governing body, or corporate entity.

    Enough players are willing to pay in the past month to maintain 12 million accounts active.  Meaning, 12 million accounts are being paid for, by whatever sub/hourly plan.  The rest of the world does not care for WoW, or not able to play it.  That is the fact.  How does that equates automatically to being amazing?

    Blizzard clearly stated what they mean by the account statistics, no more, no less.  If you call that distortion of truth, omission of faction, intentional misdirection (you repeated omission of facts), plain old dishonesty, then you have reading comprehension issues.  It is not an issue of principle for you, it is a reading ability issue.

    Jumping into the conversation late, and not sure if they do this now, but historically Blizzard has published how many subs it has worldwide, but never really broken it down to how many play monthly subs in the west vs play hourly in the east.

    They always lump the numbers together as I recall and this is a form of "omission of facts" or distortion in the presentation of the figures, which is a bit dishonest in some folks eyes.

    Also, they tend to publish the numbers after an uptick, like right before an expansion launches, but give it 9 months past launch (when presumably subs are tailing off) and they stop releasing sub numbers.

    Not saying this isn't a good business practice, but honest it isn't in my eyes.

    Oh yes, and I am currently playing WOW for the record.

    I read company reports for a living.  I do not play WoW any more.  For the record.

    I do not read Blizz reports during my working hours.  That is not part of my purview.  I do hear a few chats from my colleagues in the other divisions concerning entertainment business, not necessarily WoW alone.  Some minor bits might be relevant, and mind you I may be wrong,  It is all hearsay.

    Blizz income statements starts simple.  Sub in all.  Europe is slightly more expensive, because of differing tax rates.  Basically, the number of accounts paid in the past month more or less goes hand in hand with income earned last month.

    It gets more complicated, as WoW servers are set up over different countries, as these goes with different pricing models.  Its gets more and more complicated with additional sources of income.  It is no longer possible to publish just 1 or 2 time series to show income level or income growth, or income growth potential (market penetration, concentration ratios).  It is not just an issue of honesty.  It is a tricky situation to design statistics that are consistent over time, and yet is meaningful.

    When the world is changing fast, statistics cease to be meaningful in terms of temporal comparability.  The number of bullets produced today vs that produced last decade means nothing.  We can have 20% less working population over the past 50 years, but output need not drop.  To design a time series statistics under such shifting tides is an art.

  • andrzcieiandrzciei Member Posts: 39

    Originally posted by Rydeson

         And Farmville has over 80 MILLION users..  Does it really matter?  Why are people so hard up to equating Quantity = Quality..  The two are exclusive of each other.. One does not equate to the other..  Grrrrrr  I personally like jazz and classic rock, and I could care less how many cd's are sold..  Michael Jackson is the ONLY artist to have a cd (Thriller) sell over 50 million copies.. Does that make it the "best" music ever?  NO..  Backstreet Boys sold over 40 million with Milleninium.. NOW that is scarey.. I can think of dozens of other artist that sold far less cd's to listen to..  LOL   I guess Technically IF people want to use numbers of pure sales Jacko was the most seccessful.. However, I think Elvis, Beatles and Johnny Cash would have something to say about that...

    Happy Holidays :)

    Do you have any information about the revenue and profits generated over the 80 million users in farmville.

    Do you know how many of the 80 million users are still active, by whatever defintion?

    Quantity is measurable, at least in principle.  Quality is not measurable.  Who the bright mind is trying to say that quantity = quantity?  You?

    Do you think we can quantify best?  If not why bring that in to further muddle the water?

    You think Elvis is the best?  12million accounts were continually being paid for, that amounts to saying someone somewhere would think that WoW is currently the best.  There is no conflict there.

  • andrzcieiandrzciei Member Posts: 39

    Originally posted by SaintViktor

    Well first of all there is no denying WoW has millions playing but exactly how many millions is flawed.

    1. Many users have multiple accounts so they may say they have 12 million subscriptions they could really only have 5-8 million players world wide.

    2. There is no way a pay by the hour in China is a subscription model. China has more of a rmt business model.

    1.  Blizz never says 12 million players, Blizz says 12 million account being paid for, months after months, not necessarily the same 12 million, but 12 million during the months they reported, and been growing over the 6 years.  As far as a business goes, they hardly care.  So long as it is being paid.  A restaurant is more than happy to serve 1 rich guy placing order for 25 dishes, than serving 20 poor guys sharing 1 hotdog.

    2.  Blizz never defines sub model.  Blizz reports the number of accounts being paid for.  So long as it is bringing in net revenue over cost, I do not see why Blizz need to discriminate one form of payment over the other.  Payment by usage is actually very nice, no wastage, no idle hogging of internet and WoW servers.

  • arantharanth Member Posts: 6

    According to Rob Sevilla, one of the 3d artists at Blizzard, "..17% of the players are european", source: El Pa

  • rsrestonrsreston Member UncommonPosts: 346

    Before all the ignorance of such a pointless discussion, remember that a company like Blizzard would not want to lie to their SHAREHOLDERS about such meaningful numbers...

    image

  • CecropiaCecropia Member RarePosts: 3,985

    Originally posted by rsreston

    Before all the ignorance of such a pointless discussion, remember that a company like Blizzard would not want to lie to their SHAREHOLDERS about such meaningful numbers...

    Blizzard is the king of subs, that can't be argued. Also I agree, they're not lying. They are however, seriously sugarcoating their numbers. That much is blatantly obvious. 

    "Mr. Rothstein, your people never will understand... the way it works out here. You're all just our guests. But you act like you're at home. Let me tell you something, partner. You ain't home. But that's where we're gonna send you if it harelips the governor." - Pat Webb

  • Daffid011Daffid011 Member UncommonPosts: 7,945

    Originally posted by SaintViktor

    2. There is no way a pay by the hour in China is a subscription model. China has more of a rmt business model.

    Ok then.  You say the Chinese are not subscribers, so then what are they?

    What would you call someone who pays for access to the same game service as anyone else in the world, but does so by an hourly rate which just happens to be the standard business model in that region?

  • andrzcieiandrzciei Member Posts: 39

    Originally posted by Cecropia

    Originally posted by rsreston

    Before all the ignorance of such a pointless discussion, remember that a company like Blizzard would not want to lie to their SHAREHOLDERS about such meaningful numbers...

    Blizzard is the king of subs, that can't be argued. Also I agree, they're not lying. They are however, seriously sugarcoating their numbers. That much is blatantly obvious. 

    That is very true, pretty much everyone is trying to sugarcoat what he is selling.  I will sugarcoat myself if I run into a nice looking girl.

  • andrzcieiandrzciei Member Posts: 39

    Originally posted by Daffid011

    Originally posted by SaintViktor



    2. There is no way a pay by the hour in China is a subscription model. China has more of a rmt business model.

    Ok then.  You say the Chinese are not subscribers, so then what are they?

    What would you call someone who pays for access to the same game service as anyone else in the world, but does so by an hourly rate which just happens to be the standard business model in that region?

    Not just chinese people, anyone who want to play on servers located in china will have to pay by that business model.  It is not a matter of ethnics, it is a matter of the policy of the company running the servers in that region.  Much like tax, if you earn in US you pay US tax, be you an American or a toad.

    Whatever you call them, subscriber or not, if you are paying in the past 30 days you support one active account.  That number of accounts is what Blizz counts.

    No more, no less.

  • BenedictXVBenedictXV Member Posts: 104

    This is the kind of thread that just can't end in a good fashion.

    I play wow, i enjoy it and i have a lot of friends irl who play's the game.

    Now for some of you who say blizz are "fudging number" i guess you aren't playing the game, or i'll guess you just don't like the game at all. So if you don't like the game and you are not playing it... Why do you care if they fudge the numbers or not? Id be a shareholder with 1 000 000$ invested in them IT WOULD MATTER to know if the game is in a good shape to continue. But no im simply a guy enjoying the game paying 15$ a month to do some dungeons and raid and get ganked in tanaris by some dk....

     

    And who cares about Chinese sub or Western Sub. You have an account, you a player, you are counted. End of the story. 

    And im sure that all of you who jump high when they hear those number, if you would make a game and ship 2millions copies of it. you'd be the first to yell it on every roof before you'd even sell those copies!

     

    So end it boys, Blizzard and World of Warcraft are a succesfull companie, and a succesfull game. Being in a gamer community we should be proud of that. Not try to bitch it and tear it down.

    image

  • jodinajodina Member Posts: 1

    I am quoting many of the past writers I am aware, but this is my opinion also:

     

    1. First note that blizzard (WoW) say they have over '12million active subscriptions' 

    2. China just got  Lich King, North America and Europe already have Cataclysm. 

         a) Cataclysm is the latest expansion, Lich King was before Cataclysm.

    3. Asia pays by the hour.  If you payed for only one hour, you are considered a player. 

        a) Side note, Asia (especially china) has a Time Limit of how many hours a person under 16 years of age can play per day. Persons under 16 make up 50%+ of the wow community IMO 

    4.  Blizzard entertainment does count the pay by hour players within the last 30 days

         a) so if you played for 1 hour and never played the game again, you were considered a 'subscriber' in their toll for the past 30 days, after that you are uncounted. 

    5. If you pay a monthly subscription you are counted for your payed play time. After you run out of game time, you are uncounted. 

    6. They have 5 million active subscriptions and 7 million pay by the hour accounts that have been accessed in the past 30 days (estimate I think)

         a) so, they have 5million 'hardcore' players because they pay a subscription. Personally I dont even count the pay by hour. Theres almost no way to tell if they play every day. If they dont play every week, what is the point of considering them? 

    7. They like the highest number possible because it makes them look popular

    8. In previous years they have reported 13million (still incl the pay by hour and pay by month both) 

    9. 12-13million isnt a 'milestone' as blizzard has reported.

    10. Dont Forget The Duel+boxers (they own and pay for more than one account, so they can play multiple characters at one time) 

    10. Beware of marketing scams ;)

  • WarsongWarsong Member Posts: 563

    IMHO if an MMO has a consistent 1 mill+ subs then they are a great success...why would anyone really care if poster A says it's 5 mill and poster B argues that it's 12 mill? If it's just for the sake of argument then that is pretty f'n weak.

    If Blizzards claim is 5 mill, 10 mill, 12 mill or 50 mill it would only really matter to the tax peoples if it's a lie. And if they boasted more subs than they had then it would seem pretty dumb from a tax/finacial standpoint.....or am I missing something?

  • Daffid011Daffid011 Member UncommonPosts: 7,945

    Originally posted by jodina

    I am quoting many of the past writers I am aware, but this is my opinion also:

     

    1. First note that blizzard (WoW) say they have over '12million active subscriptions' 

    2. China just got  Lich King, North America and Europe already have Cataclysm. 

         a) Cataclysm is the latest expansion, Lich King was before Cataclysm.

    3. Asia (CHINA) pays by the hour.  If you payed for only one hour, you are considered a player. 

       I don't think we know the payment models for all the countries in Asia.  Rumor has it that Aisa is pretty large and that there are other countries around the world that play wow outside Europe/NAmerica/Asia.

        a) Side note, Asia (especially china) has a Time Limit of how many hours a person under 16 years of age can play per day. Persons under 16 make up 50%+ of the wow community IMO 

       Neilson surveys puts over 60% of the wow player base between 25-54.  Less than 10% under the age of 18 LINK

    4.  Blizzard entertainment does count the pay by hour players within the last 30 days

         a) so if you played for 1 hour and never played the game again, you were considered a 'subscriber' in their toll for the past 30 days, after that you are uncounted. 

        Just like they count hourly players who use more than $15 a month as one subscriber. 

    5. If you pay a monthly subscription you are counted for your payed play time. After you run out of game time, you are uncounted. 

    6. They have 5 million active subscriptions and 7 million pay by the hour accounts that have been accessed in the past 30 days (estimate I think)

       again, we don't know the payment model for everyone outside of Europe/NA.

         a) so, they have 5million 'hardcore' players because they pay a subscription. Personally I dont even count the pay by hour. Theres almost no way to tell if they play every day. If they dont play every week, what is the point of considering them? 

        If a monthly subscriber doesn't log in for 1 week, should they not be counted?  As long as people are paying during the 30 day period they have subscribed. 

    7. They like the highest number possible because it makes them look popular

    8. In previous years they have reported 13million (still incl the pay by hour and pay by month both) 

       Link?  I don't think blizzard has even said 13 million subscribers.  Many around here have though.

    9. 12-13million isnt a 'milestone' as blizzard has reported.

       What is then?

    10. Dont Forget The Duel+boxers (they own and pay for more than one account, so they can play multiple characters at one time) 

      How is this different than any other game that reports numbers?

    10. Beware of marketing scams ;)

      Beware the poster who makes 2 different points for #10!?!?!

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