Isn't EvE Online the second biggest MMORPG (when it comes to subs, we know it has the biggest gameworld lol) at around 300-400k? So if Rift hits 500k at launch i think that'll be pretty impressive.. But right now the game has lots of hype and the beta went VERY well for Trion so i'am guessing 500k myself.. I'll be one of them for sure.. I'am bored of all other MMORPGs atm and i see tons of potential for Rift.
Currently Playing: Rift + Starcraft II + Gears Of War 3 Beta
Isn't EvE Online the second biggest MMORPG (when it comes to subs, we know it has the biggest gameworld lol) at around 300-400k? So if Rift hits 500k at launch i think that'll be pretty impressive.. But right now the game has lots of hype and the beta went VERY well for Trion so i'am guessing 500k myself.. I'll be one of them for sure.. I'am bored of all other MMORPGs atm and i see tons of potential for Rift.
Dude smooth beta launch? I was in the first beta event and let me tell u it was shitastic man. I'm runnin a very high end computer and could barely break 30fps at max......thats brutle. Your character feels clunky and not smooth. Welcome to everquest all over again with new age graphics....wait a min..new age graphics? their game engine is dated and crap! and come release there is not much their devs can do to optomize that horrid monstrosity. I had high hopes for this game, trust mw was a fanboi no doubt.
I'm stll skeptical of the fps being reported in that first beta. I have a good computer and I was running on ultra and getting 20fps yet everything felt smooth to me.
The only issues I had was choppy game play once I entered rifts with others while on Ultra.
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What I cant belive is I posted a Guess on a stupid thread and the only responses are for the OVER lmao I'm no fortune teller and neither are any of you!! I stop in to these type of sites to get some insite on upcoming games, But not this one ever again. You all have fun judging and beating up games before they even are released
i'd hazard a guess at 250-300k box sales in the first month, falling off to about a 50k steady sub rate. The game is neither famous nor mind bogglingly awesome, so it's not going to see the mega bucks, at least not initially (future content makes or breaks a sub game).
I feel that MMORPG creators should head towards B2P models. if nothing else they'll have to actually have an epic title full of content from the start r no-one will buy it, and expansions also have to be good so people will buy it. I think it's actually one of the reasons why guild wars 2 will do really well, aside from the fact arenanet are extraordinarily dedicated, as it means they have to make an epic game to sell expansions. Sub MMORPG creators, however, can generally secure a few dozen thousands subs and be set and can effectively laze about as long as they introduce more grind quests.
150k is a bit of a mean estimate, the game will likely drop down to around 300k and sustain it for 6 months ish. After that it'll either increase or decrease dependant on the Dev's committment to improving the game.
Where is everyone getting this at least a million magic number?
Aion didn't sell a million and it had more hype
AoC didn't sell a million (over a million shipped, but not sold)
WAR didn't sell a million (over 1.5 million shipped, but not sold)
Lotro didn't sell a million and it had a better IP
Heck, Matrix had a better new IP for a mmo and it burned. The only mmo in NA and EUR to sell over a million, other than WoW, was SWG (1.5 million) and it had THE killer IP backing it up. For people that hate WoW's playerbase so much, there are sure a lot of people counting on them (and their numbers) to show initial support for these mmos they want to see succeed.
Thing is you can get a feel for how a new mmo may do from how much it's talked about in other mmos. Aion was talked about in WoW, LoTRO and WAR. I don't see that happening with Rifts. Also a lot of sites were promoting Aion as the next big mmo, but again I'm not seeing that with Rifts. Even if you get every person on MMORPG.com to buy a copy of Rifts, it would not even hit 1.5 million. Even Trion knows to start softening the blow to sub counts with their 3 month and 6 month $9.99 specials if you pre-order. And they have no, I mean NO marketing penetration yet. No PC gamer promos, no big named guilds promoting moves, no pre-order hype that was present with Aion, WAR or LoTRO.
But for me it's fine. I will buy my copy and play for a little while before I eventually move on. I understand the need to make yourself feel better about your decision to buy Rifts, but do you really need to know how far off the mark it will truly be?
"Small minds talk about people, average minds talk about events, great minds talk about ideas."
150k is a bit of a mean estimate, the game will likely drop down to around 300k and sustain it for 6 months ish. After that it'll either increase or decrease dependant on the Dev's committment to improving the game.
It will depend very much on whats coming out at same time and bit latter.
150k is my guess, because i think people will try it and leave. Is there anything to hold them for longer then first month?
I was in beta and didnt see anything. When I wrote 150k I just thought of 1 question to myself: which i would prefer WoW or Rifts. Answer was obviously WoW. I dont see what Rifts have/done better then WoW. Only thing is rifts, but so far from what I saw they will get boring way too fast.
IMO WoW and Rifts could be said to be in same mmorpg subcategorie. Themepark or whatever it is called. Both have same combat type, same quest/storyline progression type, somewhat similar graphics and etc. And WoW was here before and we all know it has nice polishing, good story/quests and other stuff. Ofcourse if Rifts would came before WoW it would be hit
Just for info i am not playing WoW. I am just bored to death by these themepark games which you can finish in few weeks and then only grind for rest of year. So i am realy biased.
Right now people are desperate for anything to play regardless of how they say they want something different. Rift proves that people dont want something different and will play anything new and shiny. Rift is a good game for people that like this type of game so I think Rift will have great box sales with probaly around 300K but games like this just dont hold people long term anymore so each month it will decline bit by bit to around 100K at the 6 month mark and stay that way.
Where is everyone getting this at least a million magic number?
Aion didn't sell a million and it had more hype
AoC didn't sell a million (over a million shipped, but not sold)
WAR didn't sell a million (over 1.5 million shipped, but not sold)
Lotro didn't sell a million and it had a better IP
Heck, Matrix had a better new IP for a mmo and it burned. The only mmo in NA and EUR to sell over a million, other than WoW, was SWG (1.5 million) and it had THE killer IP backing it up. For people that hate WoW's playerbase so much, there are sure a lot of people counting on them (and their numbers) to show initial support for these mmos they want to see succeed.
Thing is you can get a feel for how a new mmo may do from how much it's talked about in other mmos. Aion was talked about in WoW, LoTRO and WAR. I don't see that happening with Rifts. Also a lot of sites were promoting Aion as the next big mmo, but again I'm not seeing that with Rifts. Even if you get every person on MMORPG.com to buy a copy of Rifts, it would not even hit 1.5 million. Even Trion knows to start softening the blow to sub counts with their 3 month and 6 month $9.99 specials if you pre-order. And they have no, I mean NO marketing penetration yet. No PC gamer promos, no big named guilds promoting moves, no pre-order hype that was present with Aion, WAR or LoTRO.
But for me it's fine. I will buy my copy and play for a little while before I eventually move on. I understand the need to make yourself feel better about your decision to buy Rifts, but do you really need to know how far off the mark it will truly be?
This thread is just for fun. It is guessing game and numbers doesnt have to be based on anything.
I simply guessing 1M because people will try it. People from WoW, aion and other such type games.
Where is everyone getting this at least a million magic number?
Aion didn't sell a million and it had more hype
AoC didn't sell a million (over a million shipped, but not sold)
WAR didn't sell a million (over 1.5 million shipped, but not sold)
Lotro didn't sell a million and it had a better IP
Heck, Matrix had a better new IP for a mmo and it burned. The only mmo in NA and EUR to sell over a million, other than WoW, was SWG (1.5 million) and it had THE killer IP backing it up. For people that hate WoW's playerbase so much, there are sure a lot of people counting on them (and their numbers) to show initial support for these mmos they want to see succeed.
Thing is you can get a feel for how a new mmo may do from how much it's talked about in other mmos. Aion was talked about in WoW, LoTRO and WAR. I don't see that happening with Rifts. Also a lot of sites were promoting Aion as the next big mmo, but again I'm not seeing that with Rifts. Even if you get every person on MMORPG.com to buy a copy of Rifts, it would not even hit 1.5 million. Even Trion knows to start softening the blow to sub counts with their 3 month and 6 month $9.99 specials if you pre-order. And they have no, I mean NO marketing penetration yet. No PC gamer promos, no big named guilds promoting moves, no pre-order hype that was present with Aion, WAR or LoTRO.
But for me it's fine. I will buy my copy and play for a little while before I eventually move on. I understand the need to make yourself feel better about your decision to buy Rifts, but do you really need to know how far off the mark it will truly be?
Actually i think the game is getting plenty of promotion.. Maybe not in magazines but all the main MMORPG websites are covering it and the beta has been a long one and i'am sure has generated a lot of hype from players, and now that the NDA is lifted a lot of other players are telling their friends and starting to blog about it..
I mean, look at DCUO, its releasing in a few days and it's barley gotten any attention, anytime i see it brought up it's overtrumped by Rift.. Earthrise is suppose to be launching next month and most people don't even know what it is.. The last note-worthy MMO launch was FFXIV and we all know how that is.. Cataclysm has come and gone and because blizz is so carebare most people skipped through that content in less then a week.. I think this games releasing at the right time, FFXIV has softened the blow so everyones expectations arn't high and SWTOR/GW2 havn't released yet so people are bored.
And about the preorder hype the game just now started takeing preorders and released their preorder deals.. I have a feeling they will generate quite a buzz as they are offering some neat in game items.. I expect this game to defiantly gain hype within this month and the next.. NDA was lifted less then a month ago and preorders only started being accepted and hyped up by Trion a few days ago.
I still doubt it'll get anywhere close to 1mil.. I'm sticking with 300-500k sold within first launch cycle then the number going up or down depending on the reviews/content.
Currently Playing: Rift + Starcraft II + Gears Of War 3 Beta
500k??? you guys are dreaming. This game will not get near 500k, ill say around 200-250K. The game is not sooo innovative and lots of people has not even heard of rift. It was a known IP for a while then yes 500K easily. I do wish this game will succeed!!! Im in beta now!!! having a blast.
Anyone know if there is going to be an unofficial oceanic server??
I would say Rift is a good traditional mmo . Its not going to have huge mass appeal and although it does'nt take a beast of a computer to run it wont run on just any old machine like WoW .My gut instinct is it will follow a similar path to lotro . It'll be well respected but a niche game . 300-500k subs . Going free to play within three years .
I will play it but I shall wait till I see it on offer online somewhere . There several mmos that interest me in the coming months DCU ,Rift ,StarWars and GW2 so I'm gonna hang fire untill mid april and wait and see what the reviews are like for the first three of those and most likly will play one of them this summer . (I will play GW2 definatly due to the lack of a sub).
People calling F2P in 2 years are officialy retarded since lotr they spawn everywhere and talk this nonsense. Lotr is the only big one mmorpg that gone f2p and was the last. IF crap like Warhammer and AoC can stay p2p rift can easly be more succesfull than this 2.
F2P is a half-truth, at least in the case of LoTRO. Hell, you have to pay to be able to quest (except for starting areas and couple of zones which come free).
I'll go with 500k at launch. The subs may not drop after the first month right away, because alot of people seem to have jumped on the 6 month special offer.
But i doubt it'll have more than 200-250k after the first 6 month, unless they pull off some major patch and improve some mechanics significantly. If not, there's possibly some freebie/cash shop/premium crap to follow in the long run.
Comments
Isn't EvE Online the second biggest MMORPG (when it comes to subs, we know it has the biggest gameworld lol) at around 300-400k? So if Rift hits 500k at launch i think that'll be pretty impressive.. But right now the game has lots of hype and the beta went VERY well for Trion so i'am guessing 500k myself.. I'll be one of them for sure.. I'am bored of all other MMORPGs atm and i see tons of potential for Rift.
Currently Playing:
Rift + Starcraft II + Gears Of War 3 Beta
AoC sold at least around 1 mil boxes first month.
I'm going with 800k dropping down to 500k or 450k.
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Serph toze kindly has started a walk-through. https://youtu.be/UIelCK-lldo
I'm stll skeptical of the fps being reported in that first beta. I have a good computer and I was running on ultra and getting 20fps yet everything felt smooth to me.
The only issues I had was choppy game play once I entered rifts with others while on Ultra.
Godfred's Tomb Trailer: https://youtu.be/-nsXGddj_4w
Original Skyrim: https://www.nexusmods.com/skyrim/mods/109547
Serph toze kindly has started a walk-through. https://youtu.be/UIelCK-lldo
7
or if you prefer
seven
"I understand that if I hear any more words come pouring out of your **** mouth, Ill have to eat every fucking chicken in this room."
I'm no fortune teller and neither are any of you!! I stop in to these type of sites to get some insite on upcoming games,
But not this one ever again. You all have fun judging and beating up games before they even are released
i'd hazard a guess at 250-300k box sales in the first month, falling off to about a 50k steady sub rate. The game is neither famous nor mind bogglingly awesome, so it's not going to see the mega bucks, at least not initially (future content makes or breaks a sub game).
I feel that MMORPG creators should head towards B2P models. if nothing else they'll have to actually have an epic title full of content from the start r no-one will buy it, and expansions also have to be good so people will buy it. I think it's actually one of the reasons why guild wars 2 will do really well, aside from the fact arenanet are extraordinarily dedicated, as it means they have to make an epic game to sell expansions. Sub MMORPG creators, however, can generally secure a few dozen thousands subs and be set and can effectively laze about as long as they introduce more grind quests.
About 1million at beginning, then going down to 150k. I say so because it has good (imo) storyline, but nothing to hold you for long time.
150k is a bit of a mean estimate, the game will likely drop down to around 300k and sustain it for 6 months ish. After that it'll either increase or decrease dependant on the Dev's committment to improving the game.
I'm seeing lots of people say they will play it until GW2 comes out, so I predict it will do well until then.
Guild Wars 2!
Where is everyone getting this at least a million magic number?
Aion didn't sell a million and it had more hype
AoC didn't sell a million (over a million shipped, but not sold)
WAR didn't sell a million (over 1.5 million shipped, but not sold)
Lotro didn't sell a million and it had a better IP
Heck, Matrix had a better new IP for a mmo and it burned. The only mmo in NA and EUR to sell over a million, other than WoW, was SWG (1.5 million) and it had THE killer IP backing it up. For people that hate WoW's playerbase so much, there are sure a lot of people counting on them (and their numbers) to show initial support for these mmos they want to see succeed.
Thing is you can get a feel for how a new mmo may do from how much it's talked about in other mmos. Aion was talked about in WoW, LoTRO and WAR. I don't see that happening with Rifts. Also a lot of sites were promoting Aion as the next big mmo, but again I'm not seeing that with Rifts. Even if you get every person on MMORPG.com to buy a copy of Rifts, it would not even hit 1.5 million. Even Trion knows to start softening the blow to sub counts with their 3 month and 6 month $9.99 specials if you pre-order. And they have no, I mean NO marketing penetration yet. No PC gamer promos, no big named guilds promoting moves, no pre-order hype that was present with Aion, WAR or LoTRO.
But for me it's fine. I will buy my copy and play for a little while before I eventually move on. I understand the need to make yourself feel better about your decision to buy Rifts, but do you really need to know how far off the mark it will truly be?
"Small minds talk about people, average minds talk about events, great minds talk about ideas."
your obviously running a trash comp at 30 fps, I'm running an HP with a 1g gpu at 60fps..
It will depend very much on whats coming out at same time and bit latter.
150k is my guess, because i think people will try it and leave. Is there anything to hold them for longer then first month?
I was in beta and didnt see anything. When I wrote 150k I just thought of 1 question to myself: which i would prefer WoW or Rifts. Answer was obviously WoW. I dont see what Rifts have/done better then WoW. Only thing is rifts, but so far from what I saw they will get boring way too fast.
IMO WoW and Rifts could be said to be in same mmorpg subcategorie. Themepark or whatever it is called. Both have same combat type, same quest/storyline progression type, somewhat similar graphics and etc. And WoW was here before and we all know it has nice polishing, good story/quests and other stuff. Ofcourse if Rifts would came before WoW it would be hit
Just for info i am not playing WoW. I am just bored to death by these themepark games which you can finish in few weeks and then only grind for rest of year. So i am realy biased.
Ramonski, i dunno why you're saying that. AoC sold over a million in it's first month, i believe Aion did too. LOTRO i've no idea.
There's a huge difference between box sales in the first month and subscribers.
Right now people are desperate for anything to play regardless of how they say they want something different. Rift proves that people dont want something different and will play anything new and shiny. Rift is a good game for people that like this type of game so I think Rift will have great box sales with probaly around 300K but games like this just dont hold people long term anymore so each month it will decline bit by bit to around 100K at the 6 month mark and stay that way.
This thread is just for fun. It is guessing game and numbers doesnt have to be based on anything.
I simply guessing 1M because people will try it. People from WoW, aion and other such type games.
I agree. I even like the numbers you picked, so.....I'll place my buck there on the imaginary bets chart.
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Actually i think the game is getting plenty of promotion.. Maybe not in magazines but all the main MMORPG websites are covering it and the beta has been a long one and i'am sure has generated a lot of hype from players, and now that the NDA is lifted a lot of other players are telling their friends and starting to blog about it..
I mean, look at DCUO, its releasing in a few days and it's barley gotten any attention, anytime i see it brought up it's overtrumped by Rift.. Earthrise is suppose to be launching next month and most people don't even know what it is.. The last note-worthy MMO launch was FFXIV and we all know how that is.. Cataclysm has come and gone and because blizz is so carebare most people skipped through that content in less then a week.. I think this games releasing at the right time, FFXIV has softened the blow so everyones expectations arn't high and SWTOR/GW2 havn't released yet so people are bored.
And about the preorder hype the game just now started takeing preorders and released their preorder deals.. I have a feeling they will generate quite a buzz as they are offering some neat in game items.. I expect this game to defiantly gain hype within this month and the next.. NDA was lifted less then a month ago and preorders only started being accepted and hyped up by Trion a few days ago.
I still doubt it'll get anywhere close to 1mil.. I'm sticking with 300-500k sold within first launch cycle then the number going up or down depending on the reviews/content.
Currently Playing:
Rift + Starcraft II + Gears Of War 3 Beta
500k??? you guys are dreaming. This game will not get near 500k, ill say around 200-250K. The game is not sooo innovative and lots of people has not even heard of rift. It was a known IP for a while then yes 500K easily. I do wish this game will succeed!!! Im in beta now!!! having a blast.
Anyone know if there is going to be an unofficial oceanic server??
I'm going to say around 200,000 at launch.
I would say Rift is a good traditional mmo . Its not going to have huge mass appeal and although it does'nt take a beast of a computer to run it wont run on just any old machine like WoW .My gut instinct is it will follow a similar path to lotro . It'll be well respected but a niche game . 300-500k subs . Going free to play within three years .
I will play it but I shall wait till I see it on offer online somewhere . There several mmos that interest me in the coming months DCU ,Rift ,StarWars and GW2 so I'm gonna hang fire untill mid april and wait and see what the reviews are like for the first three of those and most likly will play one of them this summer . (I will play GW2 definatly due to the lack of a sub).
People calling F2P in 2 years are officialy retarded since lotr they spawn everywhere and talk this nonsense. Lotr is the only big one mmorpg that gone f2p and was the last. IF crap like Warhammer and AoC can stay p2p rift can easly be more succesfull than this 2.
F2P is a half-truth, at least in the case of LoTRO. Hell, you have to pay to be able to quest (except for starting areas and couple of zones which come free).
I'll go with 500k at launch. The subs may not drop after the first month right away, because alot of people seem to have jumped on the 6 month special offer.
But i doubt it'll have more than 200-250k after the first 6 month, unless they pull off some major patch and improve some mechanics significantly. If not, there's possibly some freebie/cash shop/premium crap to follow in the long run.
I'm bookmarking this thread. This game is actually pretty good. Some folks might need to eat crow.