The investors have cause to be leery. Even though I think the game will do well and be a solid performer for the long haul, I don't believe it will rock the foundations of the gaming world. Due to the astronomical budget, I'd have real reservations about investing. It could be a hell of a long time before you start seeing a proper return, and there are many other places to put that money in the meantime that are far less risky. MMOs have an abysmal track record and you don't need to have a PhD in 'MMORPG Economics' to be wary of investing in one. Had they kept to a reasonable budget, having Bioware a project like this would be a license to print money, even if it is their first foray into the world of MMOs. But because they are starting from such a hole, I don't like odds of seeing a healthy return any time soon. Investors are willing to wait to reap their rewards, but not indefinitely.
As I said, I think the game will do well, but it won't set a new paradigm in online games, which I think it needs to in order to justify that enormous budget. Plus, it's going to have some pretty stiff competition to deal with. Remember, it won't be operating in an MMO vacuum ... well, not for long. Too bad it didn't release last year. It would have owned 2010.
Yawn, seriously.... who gives a flying fudge. First, these market analysts, when it has come to gaming, haven't known their backsides from a hole in the ground, ever. These are archaic people trying to fit computer gaming into their little models for other products, none of which has ever once proven to be worthwhile.
If these "experts" knew ANYTHING then all these games that have come out and fallen flat on their faces, they would have been resounding successes. These companies, apart from the indies, are huge businesses. They have focus groups, they have experts, analysts, the whole shebang. And what have we gotten? COX, SWG:NGE, WH:O, AOC, etc etc.
Yes, I pulled out hte NGE. Why? Well apart from the scrub job that MMORPG.com allowed SOE to do on these forums when they purged their own, many many people remember clearly and distinctly how the players were told they didn't know what they wanted. That, according to Smedley, SOE's external and internal focus tests all pointed to the NGE being, and I quote Jullio Torres here, STARWARSY and fun.
How did all that analysis and focus testing work out for SWG? Hmmm?
I would be rather nervous as well if I were a EA investor.
Not because of the reasons stated but because they plowed down so much money in the game that it must be at least the second most successful MMO ever to get the invested money back. And that is taking a huge risk.
I am sure the game will be pretty fun to play but I am not sure they can get a million subs or more, I think it is worrying that only Wow pulled that off in the past and no other game even been close.
It might work or it might not work, investors do have good reasons to be nervous no matter since MMOs always are a chance and a lot of money is at stake here. I am actually pretty sure that Blizzard are nervous about "Titan" as well, MMOs are risky business.
Any investment involves a certain degree of risk. There is only one investment which is considered risk free - government bonds.
Anything else involves risk. The higher the risk, the higher the expected returns.
@the guy who said that investors know nothing about games that't true to an extent. But every investment is made by people who do understand the underlying principles of the market their investing. The actual investors who give the money might not know anything about what they are investing. They have financial managers who have to do pretty much do it for them. Financial managers care only about maximising shareholders wealth.
Gamers will not be able to make sound investments if they know nothing about finance.
Mission in life: Vanquish all MMORPG.com trolls - especially TESO, WOW and GW2 trolls.
1) Could be a bad investment based on performance of recently released MMO's and their failure to really take a bite out of WoW's sub base.
2) Could be a good investment based on the history of the developer, hype, the fact that the Star Wars name turns almost anything to gold.
3) Could be an amazing investment. Combine the factors of #2 with the right timing, and the game actually being really good.
In the end it is a "bet". Every "bet" has some sort of risk associated with it and at the end of the day there is no way to tell how it will play out. It's easy to say this game does not have what it takes to take down WoW; because nobody has yet (and there have been many attempts and many games with a good amount of hype).
But, how many people thought "there is no way the Saints lose to the Seahawks"? (Hawks fans can keep the "I knew it would happen" to themselves). Every once and a while an anomaly hits and it leaves the masses in shock, and every model and calculation you used predict the outcome is rendered useless.
How many people are bored with Cata already? LOTS. And that number will only grow over the next few months, and how many people that play WoW said they will at least "try" SWTOR? LOTS. The timing is looking right (based on leaked projections), and the hype is still there.
The way I see it: Lots of upside given: timing, title, developer track record, hype and lack of other options.
1) Could be a bad investment based on performance of recently released MMO's and their failure to really take a bite out of WoW's sub base.
2) Could be a good investment based on the history of the developer, hype, the fact that the Star Wars name turns almost anything to gold.
3) Could be an amazing investment. Combine the factors of #2 with the right timing, and the game actually being really good.
In the end it is a "bet". Every "bet" has some sort of risk associated with it and at the end of the day there is no way to tell how it will play out. It's easy to say this game does not have what it takes to take down WoW; because nobody has yet (and there have been many attempts and many games with a good amount of hype).
But, how many people thought "there is no way the Saints lose to the Seahawks"? (Hawks fans can keep the "I knew it would happen" to themselves). Every once and a while an anomaly hits and it leaves the masses in shock, and every model and calculation you used predict the outcome is rendered useless.
How many people are bored with Cata already? LOTS. And that number will only grow over the next few months, and how many people that play WoW said they will at least "try" SWTOR? LOTS. The timing is looking right (based on leaked projections), and the hype is still there.
The way I see it: Lots of upside given: timing, title, developer track record, hype and lack of other options.
Retention is the key though. Funcom sold over a million copies of AoC. How many of those did they retain. Warhammer sold over a half a million. Look to Aion in NA and Europe. Initial sales where great...then mass exodus. If the game cannot retain their player base...then it will, just like many previous recently released games, flounder and be scrounging for customers. SW:ToR has to keep people playing beyond their initial release month and also longer than 2 or 3 months. That is the key...not initial sales...but keeping players playing.
Yawn, seriously.... who gives a flying fudge. First, these market analysts, when it has come to gaming, haven't known their backsides from a hole in the ground, ever. These are archaic people trying to fit computer gaming into their little models for other products, none of which has ever once proven to be worthwhile.
If these "experts" knew ANYTHING then all these games that have come out and fallen flat on their faces, they would have been resounding successes. These companies, apart from the indies, are huge businesses. They have focus groups, they have experts, analysts, the whole shebang. And what have we gotten? COX, SWG:NGE, WH:O, AOC, etc etc.
Yes, I pulled out hte NGE. Why? Well apart from the scrub job that MMORPG.com allowed SOE to do on these forums when they purged their own, many many people remember clearly and distinctly how the players were told they didn't know what they wanted. That, according to Smedley, SOE's external and internal focus tests all pointed to the NGE being, and I quote Jullio Torres here, STARWARSY and fun.
How did all that analysis and focus testing work out for SWG? Hmmm?
Pretty much.
Show me one of those investors who's a beta tester... OR that has even ever played an MMO. Their logic that the F2P market is taking over is ridiculous... It's like saying the Farmville model is gonna kill traditional subscription MMOs.
Those guys are unable to factor in stuff like the love for the Star Wars IP the fans have AND the trust in Bioware the gamers have.
Can SWTOR be a failiure, of course. But I'm not counting on "investors" to actually predict anything... and honestly WoW is aging... there is room for EA to take away some of Activision's market.
Not surprised by this at all. Basically a few things play into why investors are feeling a bit shaky.
1) Sheer size of the budget for the project. Alot of numbers are being thrown around in terms of the budget for this...likely no one on the outside knows the real numbers for sure, but Bioware themselves at least confirmed that this was "the most expensive MMO ever made". That kind of budget sets a very high bar in terms of gross revenue in order to recieve reasonable ROI. This increases the level of risk for the investor.
2) Royalties. With an established IP, the IP holder obviously gets a cut in terms of Royalties. The larger the cut, the deeper bite it makes into proffit for the investor. No one on the outside knows how the deal with Lucas is structured...however the analyst at least hinted that LA was pretty aggressive in terms of thier licensing deal. That would be a good reason for investors to be nervous. Even though a well known IP can generate alot of sales simply due to name recognition... that can be overshadowed if the IP holder is too agreessive in it's licensing terms. That also increases the risk of investment.
3) New vertical. Even though BIOWARE is a very successfull games developer, it's never made an MMO before. There are some very important differences between an MMO and the types of games it's made before...meaning that any reputation it has for prior success is muted by entry into a different TYPE of market (MMO's). That naturaly would make investors nervous.
4) Crowded market in a bad economy. Simply put, there's ALOT of competition in the MMO market these days. Investors have to be wondering just how much of some of the other recent MMO performance problems is due to just really shoddy products....and how much is due to the market being really crowded and entertainment dollars for everyone being tight. Capturing a large segment of the market becomes alot harder when there are so many offerings out there...regardless of the quality of the product.
None of this is to say that TOR might not be a big success. It might... but there are good reasons for investors to be nervous about it as well.
this is an incredibly stupid article.. why on earth would they be involved with this game if they expected it to fail.. who on earth would use that as a business model? what board of directors would sit around a table and agree to invest millions in a game they didnt think would return their investment plus a tidy profit?.. they would have to be the biggest douche bags in the business world.
As someone who has been around in the corporate world I can tell you one thing for sure about the gaming industry that I know not only from my professional experience but from my personal experiences as well.
Most of these "investors" do not play games. They are not gamers, they have never been gamers, they will never be gamers. That is also true of many of the "suits" or "shot callers" that work in big gaming companies. Shocked? Most of these people are brought in because they meet qualification X, Y, and Z and have a nice shiny resume to boast over, but have no knowledge or understanding when it comes to actual games, gamers, or the game industry in general.
These guys look at bottom lines. They are number crunchers. Yes they are savvy when it comes to business and "corporate know how" but unfortunately they have no idea when it comes down to making intelligent and educated decisions about products as they just simply do not understand them. These "investors" aren't any different. They won't look at things like Bioware's history and their track record when it comes to gaming. They won't look at Bioware's background when it comes to role playing games and their love of all things role playing in the spirit of Dungeons & Dragons. They as stated, only look at the bottom line.
It's a sad fact. If there were more gamers with a business sense, the gaming industry would certainly be a completely different place. Such a sheer pity.
Are you kidding me? Investors may take risks, but they certainly are not a stupid bunch by a long shot. I can guarantee you they do research not only on the company they are investing in, but the market the company is targeting and it's viability. They may or may not be gamers, but I'd bet my soul they know exactly what to look for and determine if the risk is offset enough by the skill and viability of the company, it's product / service and it's target market.
This gives even more food to those prophetic inside words of a few months back/
"... Well at least it has good sound ..."
I think Blizzard attacked them with their own weapons of story telling 12 months in advance (and Bioware/EA don't have the phasing technique to make it happen).
This whole article is very deceptive. The investor reluctance is not a reflection on BioWare or SW:TOR, but on EA as a publisher, which I can see, understand and concur with. People are using this article as an excuse to jump on a bandwagon that frankly has no wheels...
------------------------- "Searchers after horror haunt strange, far places..." ~ H.P.Lovecraft, "From Beyond"
This whole article is very deceptive. The investor reluctance is not a reflection on BioWare or SW:TOR, but on EA as a publisher, which I can see, understand and concur with. People are using this article as an excuse to jump on a bandwagon that frankly has no wheels...
I have to agree.
Bioware/LucasArt decide when they are ready to publish, not EA right?
Retention is the key though. Funcom sold over a million copies of AoC. How many of those did they retain. Warhammer sold over a half a million. Look to Aion in NA and Europe. Initial sales where great...then mass exodus. If the game cannot retain their player base...then it will, just like many previous recently released games, flounder and be scrounging for customers. SW:ToR has to keep people playing beyond their initial release month and also longer than 2 or 3 months. That is the key...not initial sales...but keeping players playing.
The correct numbers were:
AoC: SOLD 750K. 1 million shipped to stores
War SOLD 800 K (113 servers worldwide), now 4 US servers. 1.2 million shipped (from an initial planned 1.5 but a reduction at the last minute.
Aion SOLD 650 K (32 US/EU servers), now 4 US servers: and 960 K shipped to stores.
All these populations were down to under 100K or less within a time span of less than a year.
In all fairness due to the most recent releases as far as maybe two years back and EA's own track record with mmorpg releases such as WAR this is a reasonable fear to have. MMORPG's have underperformed for quite some time now, I still have faith though that BW can deliver for players like myself who love mmorpg's as much as good story lines in a video game. If I looked at other BW games I think they may be able to hook more than just gamers who are interested in what I describe and that will be what determines how successful the game ends up ultimately.
but yeah, to call this game Fantastic is like calling Twilight the Godfather of vampire movies....
A lot of people seem to think his saying the game is bad. That isn't what this is about its about the current state of the market, the shifts in gamer expectations, how happy they are to pay to play and MMO's in general.
First to put some people on track, analysts don't get it right all the time. But they get it right a lot more than they get it wrong. The same for sucessful investors, if your not sucessful you don't get to stay in the market long. And from this point of view you have to look at what ToR is trying to do and the levels of investment they have already put in and the market its trying to get into.
If you have invested 100 million dollars into a product that has a very small customer base you need to be able to charge a lot of money for it. It doesn't matter if I make the best program in the world if I can only sell it to 10 people unless they are willing to pay at least 10 million each for it. Now with ToR you have to look at the licencing costs for the Star Wars name, the hero engine, the development cost, the running cost etc. Then look at the size of the player base the big compeition in the market and what ToR brings to attract players. You also have to then look at what the market is doing at the moment, going free to play or offering different payment models or offering different types of game for the money.
So the quality of the game is only one factor in the sucess of a game and it will be important but there are many other reasons. Least of all if youir compeition is out and selling fast or the poor global eccomonics.
In all fairness due to the most recent releases as far as maybe two years back and EA's own track record with mmorpg releases such as WAR this is a reasonable fear to have. MMORPG's have underperformed for quite some time now, I still have faith though that BW can deliver for players like myself who love mmorpg's as much as good story lines in a video game. If I looked at other BW games I think they may be able to hook more than just gamers who are interested in what I describe and that will be what determines how successful the game ends up ultimately.
Bioware is known for its extreme long loading screens of instances. They have no clue about background loading MMO's and certainly not about story telling phasing techniques (that means changing landscapes without even a loading screen in sight).
Add it all up and I don't think that voice overs will save the cake. It will sell high PC numbers (my guess around 1.5 M), but side by side several factors are not looking that good.
- NPC's in PvP ??? Seriously.
- No changing worlds (only in instances like the other Bioware products)
- No real 3D constructed worlds you can fly over.
- Added space fights as an afterthought.
are extremely annoying factors in what is supposed to be an open ended space opera you have to pay a subscription for.
Can't tell if SW:TOR will be successful or not in it's first year, most games take two years to pan out to know if they will be viable with content and bug fixes patches.
In all fairness due to the most recent releases as far as maybe two years back and EA's own track record with mmorpg releases such as WAR this is a reasonable fear to have. MMORPG's have underperformed for quite some time now, I still have faith though that BW can deliver for players like myself who love mmorpg's as much as good story lines in a video game. If I looked at other BW games I think they may be able to hook more than just gamers who are interested in what I describe and that will be what determines how successful the game ends up ultimately.
Bioware is known for its extreme long loading screens of instances. They have no clue about background loading MMO's and certainly not about story telling phasing techniques (that means changing landscapes without even a loading screen in sight).
Add it all up and I don't think that voice overs will save the cake. It will sell high PC numbers (my guess around 1.5 M), but side by side several factors are not looking that good.
- NPC's in PvP ??? Seriously.
- No changing worlds (only in instances like the other Bioware products)
- No real 3D constructed worlds you can fly over.
- Added space fights as an afterthought.
are extremely annoying factors in what is supposed to be an open ended space opera you have to pay a subscription for.
Don't take this personal but I am not so sure I'll just assume you have more of a clue about developing games than they do whether it's about loading screens or phasing techniques? Any credentials?
-I don't pvp much at all so if you say this is a bad thing I guess I can defer on that (though I would be willing to bet there are people who consider themselves pvp players who don't agree with you).
-No changing worlds I could live with that as most if not all mmo's have the same static worlds at present, if they could buck this trend they would certainly get points but I'm not going to hold it against them because they haven't figured out something no other dev has.
-3D worlds to fly over???? Ummm this isn't a staple of mmorpg gameplay this as far as I know is done by WOW and AION and doesn't add much to the gameplay of those games so why would that be so important now?
-Launching with space flight which SWG didn't do so for me they get kudos thinking what spaceflight could contain a year in becomes something else to look forward to.
Reading your last line makes the post a bit laughable if you mean that these are concerns that the mmo community at large is after much more understandable if you are saying these are your own problems with the game and if that;s the case I'd say no big deal because again these are not concerns of even the normal people who troll this game.
but yeah, to call this game Fantastic is like calling Twilight the Godfather of vampire movies....
Are you kidding me? Investors may take risks, but they certainly are not a stupid bunch by a long shot. I can guarantee you they do research not only on the company they are investing in, but the market the company is targeting and it's viability. They may or may not be gamers, but I'd bet my soul they know exactly what to look for and determine if the risk is offset enough by the skill and viability of the company, it's product / service and it's target market.
I never kid when discussing business You give investors WAY too much credit. Most investors out there will do research and what not and even hire firms and consultants to validate/confirm/investigate their investments; but that doesn't make them knowledgeable and it definitely doesn't make them gamers. Investors care about one thing and one thing only. Money. How can they make more of it and they don't care about "integrity" or project ideals. They'll do anything to make a buck, anything at all. For that matter, Verant Interactive and TSR both proved that when their investors reared their ugly heads. Especially where TSR was concerned.
Banegrivm Leader of the 1st Fist of Light www.1stfistoflight.com
In all fairness due to the most recent releases as far as maybe two years back and EA's own track record with mmorpg releases such as WAR this is a reasonable fear to have. MMORPG's have underperformed for quite some time now, I still have faith though that BW can deliver for players like myself who love mmorpg's as much as good story lines in a video game. If I looked at other BW games I think they may be able to hook more than just gamers who are interested in what I describe and that will be what determines how successful the game ends up ultimately.
Bioware is known for its extreme long loading screens of instances. They have no clue about background loading MMO's and certainly not about story telling phasing techniques (that means changing landscapes without even a loading screen in sight).
Add it all up and I don't think that voice overs will save the cake. It will sell high PC numbers (my guess around 1.5 M), but side by side several factors are not looking that good.
- NPC's in PvP ??? Seriously.
- No changing worlds (only in instances like the other Bioware products)
- No real 3D constructed worlds you can fly over.
- Added space fights as an afterthought.
are extremely annoying factors in what is supposed to be an open ended space opera you have to pay a subscription for.
Don't take this personal but I am not so sure I'll just assume you have more of a clue about developing games than they do whether it's about loading screens or phasing techniques? Any credentials?
Just one example : the Hero engine is not an engine for a background loading MMO, let alone they could include phasing techniques with it.
That was always the problem with recently launched MMO's. They have a nice graphical engine for ... solo games or pre loaded co-op games.
MMO's have complete other needs in background loading from the HD's of hundreds of players.
I'm not worried, Mythic failed because they had the worst servers in the history of mmos. With the money invested my BW I don't think we will see that problem
This whole article is very deceptive. The investor reluctance is not a reflection on BioWare or SW:TOR, but on EA as a publisher, which I can see, understand and concur with. People are using this article as an excuse to jump on a bandwagon that frankly has no wheels...
I have to agree.
Bioware/LucasArt decide when they are ready to publish, not EA right?
Nope, BioWare does. LEC/Lucas Films is the police over lore and how they use the license, not when it comes out. This was stated recently by a developer on their forums.
Comments
The investors have cause to be leery. Even though I think the game will do well and be a solid performer for the long haul, I don't believe it will rock the foundations of the gaming world. Due to the astronomical budget, I'd have real reservations about investing. It could be a hell of a long time before you start seeing a proper return, and there are many other places to put that money in the meantime that are far less risky. MMOs have an abysmal track record and you don't need to have a PhD in 'MMORPG Economics' to be wary of investing in one. Had they kept to a reasonable budget, having Bioware a project like this would be a license to print money, even if it is their first foray into the world of MMOs. But because they are starting from such a hole, I don't like odds of seeing a healthy return any time soon. Investors are willing to wait to reap their rewards, but not indefinitely.
As I said, I think the game will do well, but it won't set a new paradigm in online games, which I think it needs to in order to justify that enormous budget. Plus, it's going to have some pretty stiff competition to deal with. Remember, it won't be operating in an MMO vacuum ... well, not for long. Too bad it didn't release last year. It would have owned 2010.
Yawn, seriously.... who gives a flying fudge. First, these market analysts, when it has come to gaming, haven't known their backsides from a hole in the ground, ever. These are archaic people trying to fit computer gaming into their little models for other products, none of which has ever once proven to be worthwhile.
If these "experts" knew ANYTHING then all these games that have come out and fallen flat on their faces, they would have been resounding successes. These companies, apart from the indies, are huge businesses. They have focus groups, they have experts, analysts, the whole shebang. And what have we gotten? COX, SWG:NGE, WH:O, AOC, etc etc.
Yes, I pulled out hte NGE. Why? Well apart from the scrub job that MMORPG.com allowed SOE to do on these forums when they purged their own, many many people remember clearly and distinctly how the players were told they didn't know what they wanted. That, according to Smedley, SOE's external and internal focus tests all pointed to the NGE being, and I quote Jullio Torres here, STARWARSY and fun.
How did all that analysis and focus testing work out for SWG? Hmmm?
http://www.speedtest.net/result/7300033012
I would be rather nervous as well if I were a EA investor.
Not because of the reasons stated but because they plowed down so much money in the game that it must be at least the second most successful MMO ever to get the invested money back. And that is taking a huge risk.
I am sure the game will be pretty fun to play but I am not sure they can get a million subs or more, I think it is worrying that only Wow pulled that off in the past and no other game even been close.
It might work or it might not work, investors do have good reasons to be nervous no matter since MMOs always are a chance and a lot of money is at stake here. I am actually pretty sure that Blizzard are nervous about "Titan" as well, MMOs are risky business.
Any investment involves a certain degree of risk. There is only one investment which is considered risk free - government bonds.
Anything else involves risk. The higher the risk, the higher the expected returns.
@the guy who said that investors know nothing about games that't true to an extent. But every investment is made by people who do understand the underlying principles of the market their investing. The actual investors who give the money might not know anything about what they are investing. They have financial managers who have to do pretty much do it for them. Financial managers care only about maximising shareholders wealth.
Gamers will not be able to make sound investments if they know nothing about finance.
Mission in life: Vanquish all MMORPG.com trolls - especially TESO, WOW and GW2 trolls.
Just to note: EA sports and Bioware are only profit making Subsidiaries that EA has.
Three ways to look at this:
1) Could be a bad investment based on performance of recently released MMO's and their failure to really take a bite out of WoW's sub base.
2) Could be a good investment based on the history of the developer, hype, the fact that the Star Wars name turns almost anything to gold.
3) Could be an amazing investment. Combine the factors of #2 with the right timing, and the game actually being really good.
In the end it is a "bet". Every "bet" has some sort of risk associated with it and at the end of the day there is no way to tell how it will play out. It's easy to say this game does not have what it takes to take down WoW; because nobody has yet (and there have been many attempts and many games with a good amount of hype).
But, how many people thought "there is no way the Saints lose to the Seahawks"? (Hawks fans can keep the "I knew it would happen" to themselves). Every once and a while an anomaly hits and it leaves the masses in shock, and every model and calculation you used predict the outcome is rendered useless.
How many people are bored with Cata already? LOTS. And that number will only grow over the next few months, and how many people that play WoW said they will at least "try" SWTOR? LOTS. The timing is looking right (based on leaked projections), and the hype is still there.
The way I see it: Lots of upside given: timing, title, developer track record, hype and lack of other options.
I think they need 1million active subs just to break even and 2million to make some money.. I can see that happening but i think it'll take time.
Currently Playing:
Rift + Starcraft II + Gears Of War 3 Beta
Retention is the key though. Funcom sold over a million copies of AoC. How many of those did they retain. Warhammer sold over a half a million. Look to Aion in NA and Europe. Initial sales where great...then mass exodus. If the game cannot retain their player base...then it will, just like many previous recently released games, flounder and be scrounging for customers. SW:ToR has to keep people playing beyond their initial release month and also longer than 2 or 3 months. That is the key...not initial sales...but keeping players playing.
Pretty much.
Show me one of those investors who's a beta tester... OR that has even ever played an MMO. Their logic that the F2P market is taking over is ridiculous... It's like saying the Farmville model is gonna kill traditional subscription MMOs.
Those guys are unable to factor in stuff like the love for the Star Wars IP the fans have AND the trust in Bioware the gamers have.
Can SWTOR be a failiure, of course. But I'm not counting on "investors" to actually predict anything... and honestly WoW is aging... there is room for EA to take away some of Activision's market.
Not surprised by this at all. Basically a few things play into why investors are feeling a bit shaky.
1) Sheer size of the budget for the project. Alot of numbers are being thrown around in terms of the budget for this...likely no one on the outside knows the real numbers for sure, but Bioware themselves at least confirmed that this was "the most expensive MMO ever made". That kind of budget sets a very high bar in terms of gross revenue in order to recieve reasonable ROI. This increases the level of risk for the investor.
2) Royalties. With an established IP, the IP holder obviously gets a cut in terms of Royalties. The larger the cut, the deeper bite it makes into proffit for the investor. No one on the outside knows how the deal with Lucas is structured...however the analyst at least hinted that LA was pretty aggressive in terms of thier licensing deal. That would be a good reason for investors to be nervous. Even though a well known IP can generate alot of sales simply due to name recognition... that can be overshadowed if the IP holder is too agreessive in it's licensing terms. That also increases the risk of investment.
3) New vertical. Even though BIOWARE is a very successfull games developer, it's never made an MMO before. There are some very important differences between an MMO and the types of games it's made before...meaning that any reputation it has for prior success is muted by entry into a different TYPE of market (MMO's). That naturaly would make investors nervous.
4) Crowded market in a bad economy. Simply put, there's ALOT of competition in the MMO market these days. Investors have to be wondering just how much of some of the other recent MMO performance problems is due to just really shoddy products....and how much is due to the market being really crowded and entertainment dollars for everyone being tight. Capturing a large segment of the market becomes alot harder when there are so many offerings out there...regardless of the quality of the product.
None of this is to say that TOR might not be a big success. It might... but there are good reasons for investors to be nervous about it as well.
this is an incredibly stupid article.. why on earth would they be involved with this game if they expected it to fail.. who on earth would use that as a business model? what board of directors would sit around a table and agree to invest millions in a game they didnt think would return their investment plus a tidy profit?.. they would have to be the biggest douche bags in the business world.
Are you kidding me? Investors may take risks, but they certainly are not a stupid bunch by a long shot. I can guarantee you they do research not only on the company they are investing in, but the market the company is targeting and it's viability. They may or may not be gamers, but I'd bet my soul they know exactly what to look for and determine if the risk is offset enough by the skill and viability of the company, it's product / service and it's target market.
Take the Magic: The Gathering 'What Color Are You?' Quiz.
This gives even more food to those prophetic inside words of a few months back/
"... Well at least it has good sound ..."
I think Blizzard attacked them with their own weapons of story telling 12 months in advance (and Bioware/EA don't have the phasing technique to make it happen).
Radio silence.
This whole article is very deceptive. The investor reluctance is not a reflection on BioWare or SW:TOR, but on EA as a publisher, which I can see, understand and concur with. People are using this article as an excuse to jump on a bandwagon that frankly has no wheels...
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"Searchers after horror haunt strange, far places..." ~ H.P.Lovecraft, "From Beyond"
Member Since March 2004
I have to agree.
Bioware/LucasArt decide when they are ready to publish, not EA right?
Guild Wars 2's 50 minutes game play video:
http://n4g.com/news/592585/guild-wars-2-50-minutes-of-pure-gameplay
Everything We Know about GW2:
http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/287180/page/1
The correct numbers were:
AoC: SOLD 750K. 1 million shipped to stores
War SOLD 800 K (113 servers worldwide), now 4 US servers. 1.2 million shipped (from an initial planned 1.5 but a reduction at the last minute.
Aion SOLD 650 K (32 US/EU servers), now 4 US servers: and 960 K shipped to stores.
All these populations were down to under 100K or less within a time span of less than a year.
No wonder EA investors are worried.
In all fairness due to the most recent releases as far as maybe two years back and EA's own track record with mmorpg releases such as WAR this is a reasonable fear to have. MMORPG's have underperformed for quite some time now, I still have faith though that BW can deliver for players like myself who love mmorpg's as much as good story lines in a video game. If I looked at other BW games I think they may be able to hook more than just gamers who are interested in what I describe and that will be what determines how successful the game ends up ultimately.
but yeah, to call this game Fantastic is like calling Twilight the Godfather of vampire movies....
A lot of people seem to think his saying the game is bad. That isn't what this is about its about the current state of the market, the shifts in gamer expectations, how happy they are to pay to play and MMO's in general.
First to put some people on track, analysts don't get it right all the time. But they get it right a lot more than they get it wrong. The same for sucessful investors, if your not sucessful you don't get to stay in the market long. And from this point of view you have to look at what ToR is trying to do and the levels of investment they have already put in and the market its trying to get into.
If you have invested 100 million dollars into a product that has a very small customer base you need to be able to charge a lot of money for it. It doesn't matter if I make the best program in the world if I can only sell it to 10 people unless they are willing to pay at least 10 million each for it. Now with ToR you have to look at the licencing costs for the Star Wars name, the hero engine, the development cost, the running cost etc. Then look at the size of the player base the big compeition in the market and what ToR brings to attract players. You also have to then look at what the market is doing at the moment, going free to play or offering different payment models or offering different types of game for the money.
So the quality of the game is only one factor in the sucess of a game and it will be important but there are many other reasons. Least of all if youir compeition is out and selling fast or the poor global eccomonics.
Bioware is known for its extreme long loading screens of instances. They have no clue about background loading MMO's and certainly not about story telling phasing techniques (that means changing landscapes without even a loading screen in sight).
Add it all up and I don't think that voice overs will save the cake. It will sell high PC numbers (my guess around 1.5 M), but side by side several factors are not looking that good.
- NPC's in PvP ??? Seriously.
- No changing worlds (only in instances like the other Bioware products)
- No real 3D constructed worlds you can fly over.
- Added space fights as an afterthought.
are extremely annoying factors in what is supposed to be an open ended space opera you have to pay a subscription for.
Can't tell if SW:TOR will be successful or not in it's first year, most games take two years to pan out to know if they will be viable with content and bug fixes patches.
Don't take this personal but I am not so sure I'll just assume you have more of a clue about developing games than they do whether it's about loading screens or phasing techniques? Any credentials?
-I don't pvp much at all so if you say this is a bad thing I guess I can defer on that (though I would be willing to bet there are people who consider themselves pvp players who don't agree with you).
-No changing worlds I could live with that as most if not all mmo's have the same static worlds at present, if they could buck this trend they would certainly get points but I'm not going to hold it against them because they haven't figured out something no other dev has.
-3D worlds to fly over???? Ummm this isn't a staple of mmorpg gameplay this as far as I know is done by WOW and AION and doesn't add much to the gameplay of those games so why would that be so important now?
-Launching with space flight which SWG didn't do so for me they get kudos thinking what spaceflight could contain a year in becomes something else to look forward to.
Reading your last line makes the post a bit laughable if you mean that these are concerns that the mmo community at large is after much more understandable if you are saying these are your own problems with the game and if that;s the case I'd say no big deal because again these are not concerns of even the normal people who troll this game.
but yeah, to call this game Fantastic is like calling Twilight the Godfather of vampire movies....
I never kid when discussing business
You give investors WAY too much credit. Most investors out there will do research and what not and even hire firms and consultants to validate/confirm/investigate their investments; but that doesn't make them knowledgeable and it definitely doesn't make them gamers. Investors care about one thing and one thing only. Money. How can they make more of it and they don't care about "integrity" or project ideals. They'll do anything to make a buck, anything at all. For that matter, Verant Interactive and TSR both proved that when their investors reared their ugly heads. Especially where TSR was concerned.
Banegrivm
Leader of the 1st Fist of Light
www.1stfistoflight.com
Just one example : the Hero engine is not an engine for a background loading MMO, let alone they could include phasing techniques with it.
That was always the problem with recently launched MMO's. They have a nice graphical engine for ... solo games or pre loaded co-op games.
MMO's have complete other needs in background loading from the HD's of hundreds of players.
I'm not worried, Mythic failed because they had the worst servers in the history of mmos. With the money invested my BW I don't think we will see that problem
Nope, BioWare does. LEC/Lucas Films is the police over lore and how they use the license, not when it comes out. This was stated recently by a developer on their forums.
http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?p=5248107#edit5248107