Rift has 145k registered member in their forum, so they are the ones tested beta and potential buyers but dont think all of them are buying. it will probably sell maximum 200k at launch month then slowly increase or decrease. only time will tell.
You do realize only a very small portion of actual players are forum members for any game. You can register on rift.com but forum registration is only after you have posted.
Rift has 145k registered member in their forum, so they are the ones tested beta and potential buyers but dont think all of them are buying. it will probably sell maximum 200k at launch month then slowly increase or decrease. only time will tell.
You do realize only a very small portion of actual players are forum members for any game. You can register on rift.com but forum registration is only after you have posted.
I predict Rift will sell 1.5 million copies of the game in the first month. After 3 months there will be close to 1.75 million subs, and after 6 months it will break 2 million subs. The game will continue at a rapid rate, and even I don't know where its going to stop.
Yea, same here. I'm getting Rift but am not on the forums. I'm not normally a forum person (minus this place).
Normally I am not a forum person either I joined back in July the community was really great then I hope once things settle after launch that we might see some maturity again. A girl can hope can't she.
Since Trion is commercing side-by-side with other retail outlets i.e., Amazon, GameStop, etc. they have an advantage of hitting their "black ink" day sooner. Their digital CE version sold over 20k on the Trion site within the first 24 hours and looked to be running steady. It could be the quote from them was accurate that "they" sold 100k copies not counting the other retail outlets. I think the title will easily sell 500k but will see them in the black with 350k (pre-orders) if it was true they sold 100k. Buy launch they will be debt free with vc monies paid back with interest and enough cash capital to grow the game and as a result its sub numbers. I see this game running strong for at least the next year and longer if they market the game well and continue to draw on their player base for inspirational nutrition.
I would imagine that it's going to do pretty well. Maybe 500k-1000k within the first month or two, minus what they have already sold? I remember even Warhammer Online reportedly sold 850k boxes/keys and I can honestly say that this game is MUCH more polished at this stage than Warhammer was. Granted, times were different.
Rift has 145k registered member in their forum, so they are the ones tested beta and potential buyers but dont think all of them are buying. it will probably sell maximum 200k at launch month then slowly increase or decrease. only time will tell.
Some of those people wont buy it, no. Probably 1 in 3 or 4. But a lot more other people ho never bothered with the betqa will anyways.
Vanguard sols over 200K the first month and I seriously doubt that Rift will sell worse.
AoC sold somewhere around 800K and WAR just over a million (for 6 weeks), these are the numbers to compare with, Anything between half and double that is a good guess, anything less is rather pessismistic and more is wishful thinking.
My guess is somewhere between AoC and WAR, around 850K.
I predict Rift will sell 1.5 million copies of the game in the first month. After 3 months there will be close to 1.75 million subs, and after 6 months it will break 2 million subs. The game will continue at a rapid rate, and even I don't know where its going to stop.
That would be faster grwoth than any MMO in history including Wow.
While it is possible it is still highly unlikely.
Assume that 2 of 3 players that bought the game at launch will quit after the free month (or just half of them if you are really optimistic). Of course if the game is good (and it looks good so far) it will after that start to grow but your numbers are far beyond any MMO ever, it just wont happen, the genre doesn't have enough players around and Rift isn't well known outside MMO fans to attract that many players that fast.
Lets just say that assuming something will easily beat the best case scanario (Wow) you are not entirely realistic.
I predict Rift will sell 1.5 million copies of the game in the first month. After 3 months there will be close to 1.75 million subs, and after 6 months it will break 2 million subs. The game will continue at a rapid rate, and even I don't know where its going to stop.
That would be faster grwoth than any MMO in history including Wow.
While it is possible it is still highly unlikely.
Assume that 2 of 3 players that bought the game at launch will quit after the free month (or just half of them if you are really optimistic). Of course if the game is good (and it looks good so far) it will after that start to grow but your numbers are far beyond any MMO ever, it just wont happen, the genre doesn't have enough players around and Rift isn't well known outside MMO fans to attract that many players that fast.
Lets just say that assuming something will easily beat the best case scanario (Wow) you are not entirely realistic.
Dunno. There are signs here and there that a lot of people have been waiting for a POLISHED release, which Rift almost certainly will be. For example, I'm in an Oceanic guild and I'm surprised at the growth rate given actual release is still a ways off.
Feels a bit like a "grass roots" movement sorta... the beta keys were spreading like wildfire and people genuinely impressed with the recent betas were telling every friend, and their dog and their mom.
Of course on these boards you've got the most skeptical, negative and pissed off posters you can get BUT even here there is overall a nice vibe for Rift.
I have a bet going with someone on this site... can't remember who!... if the game doesn't sell 1 million copies I have to admit I was wrong and include something about it in my tag.
I predict Rift will sell 1.5 million copies of the game in the first month. After 3 months there will be close to 1.75 million subs, and after 6 months it will break 2 million subs. The game will continue at a rapid rate, and even I don't know where its going to stop.
That would be faster grwoth than any MMO in history including Wow.
While it is possible it is still highly unlikely.
Assume that 2 of 3 players that bought the game at launch will quit after the free month (or just half of them if you are really optimistic). Of course if the game is good (and it looks good so far) it will after that start to grow but your numbers are far beyond any MMO ever, it just wont happen, the genre doesn't have enough players around and Rift isn't well known outside MMO fans to attract that many players that fast.
Lets just say that assuming something will easily beat the best case scanario (Wow) you are not entirely realistic.
Ahh but if I'm right... Then it gets interesting... WoW's cataclysm sold 3.3 million copies in the first 24 hours... I'm predicting that the way things are shaping up in wow and with their declining subscription base due to a number fo factors (changes to the instance system probably being the most significant), a lot of those people are in limbo. They may be looking for another game, but still playing wow. I see a lot of people migrating from day one, and I'm expecting the retention rate to do well because I've heard the end game plans and projections for Trion I think retention is going to be much better than just 66% I'm thinking closer to 80-85%. And I think Trion will continue to leech off of WoW's sub base, that's why I have the numbers going up... One person in a WoW guild leaves others follow... The best guilds leave other want to see where they went... It's curiosity, and I'm fairly certain that once they are curious to start playing Rift they will stay, because of the similarities to UI, Economy, and Layout...
Is it really crazy to think rift won't sell over 1 million... I think they will sell close to this from pissed off wow players looking to rebel, and when they see a polished game they are going to stick around. This 1.5 million is also factoring in those that want to see what happens after launch... The first month is make or break, and I think Trion knows that and is ready for it.. Why do you think they had head start? So they could spread out the population, and make those that are coming in on release or shortly after have less congestion, because these are the players that are going to be skeptical not the ones that already have the pre-order... I'm pretty sure Trion knows exactly what they are doing, and I'm thinking their plan will go off without a hitch. *knock on wood*
Oh also another thing to consider... WoW wasn't around when WoW was launched. So that changes everything... Polish and pissed off customers have the sweet smell of $$$. I'm cautiously optimistic... We'll see what happens.
Ahh but if I'm right... Then it gets interesting... WoW's cataclysm sold 3.3 million copies in the first 24 hours...
That first 24 hour "milestone" also included the preorders. It wasn't just 3.3 million boxed/digital transactions that took place on release day.
Jes' clearing that up :P
I was mearly stating the possibility, not the means. Also, if this thread has proven anything it's that we really don't know how many will be sold come release...
I have a bet going with someone on this site... can't remember who!... if the game doesn't sell 1 million copies I have to admit I was wrong and include something about it in my tag.
I agree with the 1 million copies at launch, I will be surprised if its less than that - considering the companies backing trion Time Warner and NBC universal... it advertiseed all over syfy - these companies are proper bona fide media outlets with more money than God Almighty himself and make Blizzard look like a $2 developer in comparison.
My prediction goes for 100k first week, 200k first month. 150k players subs until SWTOR comes out, then it's all downhill with TERA and GW2. 1 year and its F2P with real money store.
From 600-800k at the start. Word of mouth will make that number jump near 1 million the first month or two. Depending on endgame content we could see a rise up to and exceeding two million. If endgame is shallow crap it will drop to around 500k subs.
I will say that the numbers will shock the naysayers and out do any launch in the past 3-4 years.
Also, this game may be a themepark type MMO and the similarites with previous games are obvious, but it will survive and thrive not only retaining a large player base after launch but will continue to grow. I believe this to be the right game at the right time for a majority of the mmo community. Fortunately those that don't like RIFT or games like it are the vast minority but for some reason scream and cry the loudest so they seem like they represent the mmo player base...thank God the companies that have the resources know how to tell the difference.
This game will be around for a long time and my prediction is after the first year it will be 2nd in subs only to Wow.
300k to 400k in the first few months. There is no way it is going to outsell AOC or Warhammer for their first few months (about 1 million each). Those games had HUGE IPs, HUGE marketing budgets and were coming from developed companies. AS much as people in this forum like to live in a small world.. for most gamers, Rift isn´t even on the radar. It isn´t advertised much outside of a few fansites.. it just is a small fish right now.
I´m not a hater though. while those games (aoc, warhammer) both started at 1 million, they both fell to 200k within the first few months. I think because of the openess of Rifts beta (people who buy it probably have a really good idea what they are getting as opposed to AOC which was a rip off) Rift will have a MUCH higher retention rate at least for the first few months. I honestly expect 300k sales the first month and 400k to 500k players after 3 months. The game will climb for two reasons... first, word of mouth from current players will be good and because retention rates will be high.... also, there are a LOT of people that will never buy a MMORPG for the first month because of AOC and Warhammer. Expect a lot of those burned players to jump into Rift after a month or two.
The big question is what happens after 3 months when the majority of players are at max level and playing new content. Will the devs be able to make a viable game at max level?
I always laugh when people refer to the "huge" IP's from AoC and Warhammer... seriously, most gamer today, if they know Conan at all, simply know that it was a bad B movie staring the governer of california. And outside of a few nerds, Warhammer is just as much of an unknown in the real world.
A nerd calling others a nerd i always find that funny.
Conan? A bad B movie? Your kidding right? Ahhh children today. What's next? I'll have some child tell me Bladerunner is a horribly done film, maybe the Clockwork Orange was fail, or the Original Godfather was poorly made... This generation makes me sad.
Comments
As we all know and have personally witnessed, the release of an MMO will make or break its future success.
Sales will pick up if it is received positively, which in my personal opinion, it will be due to its polish and Trion not being a pile of d-bags.
.. But in a good way.
I'm one of those people!
Yea, same here. I'm getting Rift but am not on the forums. I'm not normally a forum person (minus this place).
I predict Rift will sell 1.5 million copies of the game in the first month. After 3 months there will be close to 1.75 million subs, and after 6 months it will break 2 million subs. The game will continue at a rapid rate, and even I don't know where its going to stop.
Since Trion is commercing side-by-side with other retail outlets i.e., Amazon, GameStop, etc. they have an advantage of hitting their "black ink" day sooner. Their digital CE version sold over 20k on the Trion site within the first 24 hours and looked to be running steady. It could be the quote from them was accurate that "they" sold 100k copies not counting the other retail outlets. I think the title will easily sell 500k but will see them in the black with 350k (pre-orders) if it was true they sold 100k. Buy launch they will be debt free with vc monies paid back with interest and enough cash capital to grow the game and as a result its sub numbers. I see this game running strong for at least the next year and longer if they market the game well and continue to draw on their player base for inspirational nutrition.
I would imagine that it's going to do pretty well. Maybe 500k-1000k within the first month or two, minus what they have already sold? I remember even Warhammer Online reportedly sold 850k boxes/keys and I can honestly say that this game is MUCH more polished at this stage than Warhammer was. Granted, times were different.
Some of those people wont buy it, no. Probably 1 in 3 or 4. But a lot more other people ho never bothered with the betqa will anyways.
Vanguard sols over 200K the first month and I seriously doubt that Rift will sell worse.
AoC sold somewhere around 800K and WAR just over a million (for 6 weeks), these are the numbers to compare with, Anything between half and double that is a good guess, anything less is rather pessismistic and more is wishful thinking.
My guess is somewhere between AoC and WAR, around 850K.
That would be faster grwoth than any MMO in history including Wow.
While it is possible it is still highly unlikely.
Assume that 2 of 3 players that bought the game at launch will quit after the free month (or just half of them if you are really optimistic). Of course if the game is good (and it looks good so far) it will after that start to grow but your numbers are far beyond any MMO ever, it just wont happen, the genre doesn't have enough players around and Rift isn't well known outside MMO fans to attract that many players that fast.
Lets just say that assuming something will easily beat the best case scanario (Wow) you are not entirely realistic.
Truthfully?
Too many.
Dunno. There are signs here and there that a lot of people have been waiting for a POLISHED release, which Rift almost certainly will be. For example, I'm in an Oceanic guild and I'm surprised at the growth rate given actual release is still a ways off.
Feels a bit like a "grass roots" movement sorta... the beta keys were spreading like wildfire and people genuinely impressed with the recent betas were telling every friend, and their dog and their mom.
Of course on these boards you've got the most skeptical, negative and pissed off posters you can get BUT even here there is overall a nice vibe for Rift.
I have a bet going with someone on this site... can't remember who!... if the game doesn't sell 1 million copies I have to admit I was wrong and include something about it in my tag.
Ahh but if I'm right... Then it gets interesting... WoW's cataclysm sold 3.3 million copies in the first 24 hours... I'm predicting that the way things are shaping up in wow and with their declining subscription base due to a number fo factors (changes to the instance system probably being the most significant), a lot of those people are in limbo. They may be looking for another game, but still playing wow. I see a lot of people migrating from day one, and I'm expecting the retention rate to do well because I've heard the end game plans and projections for Trion I think retention is going to be much better than just 66% I'm thinking closer to 80-85%. And I think Trion will continue to leech off of WoW's sub base, that's why I have the numbers going up... One person in a WoW guild leaves others follow... The best guilds leave other want to see where they went... It's curiosity, and I'm fairly certain that once they are curious to start playing Rift they will stay, because of the similarities to UI, Economy, and Layout...
Wow has somewhere in the neighborhood of 12 million subs... http://massively.joystiq.com/2010/10/07/wow-reaches-12-million-concurrent-subscribers/
Is it really crazy to think rift won't sell over 1 million... I think they will sell close to this from pissed off wow players looking to rebel, and when they see a polished game they are going to stick around. This 1.5 million is also factoring in those that want to see what happens after launch... The first month is make or break, and I think Trion knows that and is ready for it.. Why do you think they had head start? So they could spread out the population, and make those that are coming in on release or shortly after have less congestion, because these are the players that are going to be skeptical not the ones that already have the pre-order... I'm pretty sure Trion knows exactly what they are doing, and I'm thinking their plan will go off without a hitch. *knock on wood*
Oh also another thing to consider... WoW wasn't around when WoW was launched. So that changes everything... Polish and pissed off customers have the sweet smell of $$$. I'm cautiously optimistic... We'll see what happens.
That first 24 hour "milestone" also included the preorders. It wasn't just 3.3 million boxed/digital transactions that took place on release day.
Jes' clearing that up :P
.. But in a good way.
I was mearly stating the possibility, not the means. Also, if this thread has proven anything it's that we really don't know how many will be sold come release...
I'm still thinking happy thoughts.
I agree with the 1 million copies at launch, I will be surprised if its less than that - considering the companies backing trion Time Warner and NBC universal... it advertiseed all over syfy - these companies are proper bona fide media outlets with more money than God Almighty himself and make Blizzard look like a $2 developer in comparison.
I've heard 2 million pre orders being thrown around. Seems a bit inflated though.
I think Rift will sell 50million copies. Remember who predicted it (it was me) when it happens people! 50 Million! Yeah, thats about right.
My prediction goes for 100k first week, 200k first month. 150k players subs until SWTOR comes out, then it's all downhill with TERA and GW2. 1 year and its F2P with real money store.
Playing: Nothing
Looking forward to: Nothing
I have no idea how man copies will sell.
I will say that the numbers will shock the naysayers and out do any launch in the past 3-4 years.
Also, this game may be a themepark type MMO and the similarites with previous games are obvious, but it will survive and thrive not only retaining a large player base after launch but will continue to grow. I believe this to be the right game at the right time for a majority of the mmo community. Fortunately those that don't like RIFT or games like it are the vast minority but for some reason scream and cry the loudest so they seem like they represent the mmo player base...thank God the companies that have the resources know how to tell the difference.
This game will be around for a long time and my prediction is after the first year it will be 2nd in subs only to Wow.
A nerd calling others a nerd i always find that funny.
Playing: Nothing
Looking forward to: Nothing