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Mortal Online on XFire

13

Comments

  • AbdarAbdar Member UncommonPosts: 400

    Tired of this xfire talk, I've played MMO's for probably 7-8 years now, and I, nor anyone I've known on these games, have ever used xfire. So I guess those subs never counted? It means nothing except is fooder for those who think the numbers actually represent something.

  • BetaguyBetaguy Member UncommonPosts: 2,629

    Originally posted by Slapshot1188

    Originally posted by Talonsin

    Let me get this straight, you think that an average user count on XFire of 22 people a day is something to be proud of?  I have no words to describe this level of blind fanboyism. 

     It's a niche game.. the point isn't the absolute value of the number but rather that it is trending upward.  That means it is getting more popular!  Just wait until the DAWN expansion when things really pick up!

     Famous last words...

    "The King and the Pawn return to the same box at the end of the game"

  • GdemamiGdemami Member EpicPosts: 12,342


    Originally posted by Abdar
    It means nothing except is fooder for those who think the numbers actually represent something.

    As it was pointed out earlier, it is pretty ok to use to follow the trend in sub numbers, not the sub numbers as such though.

  • OmaliOmali MMO Business CorrespondentMember UncommonPosts: 1,177

    Originally posted by Gdemami

     




    Originally posted by Omali



    Perpetuum peaks out at about 340 concurrent users according to their own figures, so Mortal Online having comparable numbers isn't too surprising.




     

    Xfire numbers in no way imply subscriber numbers. Such comparisons and thinking are invalid.

    http://content.perpetuum-online.com/feeds/user_peak_graph_1200.png

    image

  • GdemamiGdemami Member EpicPosts: 12,342
  • osmundaosmunda Member Posts: 1,087

    Originally posted by Gdemami



    Originally posted by Omali



    http://content.perpetuum-online.com/feeds/user_peak_graph_1200.png

    Your point...?

    His point is that those numbers come from Perpetuum online's website, not from Xfire. They apparently maintained publicly available game stats while they were in beta http://forums.perpetuum-online.com/topic/1704/hey-devs-are-are-my-feeds/

    At launch, they removed most of that or at least made it unavailable such that a google search for " site:content.perpetuum-online.com" will only bring up http://content.perpetuum-online.com/feeds/  which links to a graph of the number of users playing over the last 24 hours.

     

    Now for some stupid X-fire tricks-------------------------------------

    7362 minutes played (MO)  / 2448 minutes played (Perpetuum) = 3.00

    4976  minutes played (MO) / 1826  minutes played (Perpetuum) = 2.72

    The numbers of people playing MO at any given time (on average) is about 2.7 - 3 times the number playing Perpetuum

    2.86  X  300 (daily peak population on Perpetuum) = 858 simultaneous players at peak times (estimated)

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    7362 minutes (MO) / 503,355 minutes (EVE) = 0.0146

    4,976 minutes (MO) / 411,072 minutes (EVE) = 0.0121

    The numbers of people playing MO at any given time (on average) is about 1.34%  the number playing EVE

    0.0134 X 63,170 http://www.pcgamer.com/2011/03/02/eve-online-has-over-360000-players-63170-simultaneous-users-in-january/ = estimated all time peak of 846 simultaneous players (estimated)

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    21 xfire players per day (MO) / 2005 xfire players per day (EVE) =0.0104

    17  xfire players per day (MO) / 1882 xfire players per day (EVE) = 0.009

    MO's xfire user population is about 0.97% the size of EVE's xfire user population.

     http://www.pcgamer.com/2011/03/02/eve-online-has-over-360000-players-63170-simultaneous-users-in-january/

    360,000 X  0.0097 = 3492 total population (estimated)

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Xfire numbers are by no means reliable, but they are more objective than "I was in Meduli and only saw one person, this game is dead" or  "When I played there were lots of people around"

     

  • GdemamiGdemami Member EpicPosts: 12,342


    Originally posted by osmunda

    His point is that those numbers come from Perpetuum online's website, not from Xfire.
     

    And as I said, such type of thinking is invalid. Linking concurrent user graphs won¨t change anything about it.

    It is no point, it's stupid.

  • Slapshot1188Slapshot1188 Member LegendaryPosts: 17,721

    Originally posted by osmunda

    Originally posted by Gdemami



    Originally posted by Omali



    http://content.perpetuum-online.com/feeds/user_peak_graph_1200.png

    Your point...?

    His point is that those numbers come from Perpetuum online's website, not from Xfire. They apparently maintained publicly available game stats while they were in beta http://forums.perpetuum-online.com/topic/1704/hey-devs-are-are-my-feeds/

    At launch, they removed most of that or at least made it unavailable such that a google search for " site:content.perpetuum-online.com" will only bring up http://content.perpetuum-online.com/feeds/  which links to a graph of the number of users playing over the last 24 hours.

     

    Now for some stupid X-fire tricks-------------------------------------

    7362 minutes played (MO)  / 2448 minutes played (Perpetuum) = 3.00

    4976  minutes played (MO) / 1826  minutes played (Perpetuum) = 2.72

    The numbers of people playing MO at any given time (on average) is about 2.7 - 3 times the number playing Perpetuum

    2.86  X  300 (daily peak population on Perpetuum) = 858 simultaneous players at peak times (estimated)

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    7362 minutes (MO) / 503,355 minutes (EVE) = 0.0146

    4,976 minutes (MO) / 411,072 minutes (EVE) = 0.0121

    The numbers of people playing MO at any given time (on average) is about 1.34%  the number playing EVE

    0.0134 X 63,170 http://www.pcgamer.com/2011/03/02/eve-online-has-over-360000-players-63170-simultaneous-users-in-january/ = estimated all time peak of 846 simultaneous players (estimated)

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    21 xfire players per day (MO) / 2005 xfire players per day (EVE) =0.0104

    17  xfire players per day (MO) / 1882 xfire players per day (EVE) = 0.009

    MO's xfire user population is about 0.97% the size of EVE's xfire user population.

     http://www.pcgamer.com/2011/03/02/eve-online-has-over-360000-players-63170-simultaneous-users-in-january/

    360,000 X  0.0097 = 3492 total population (estimated)

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Xfire numbers are by no means reliable, but they are more objective than "I was in Meduli and only saw one person, this game is dead" or  "When I played there were lots of people around"

     

     LOL What?  Let me get this straight.  Your data includes XFire population figures that relate to the hours you use in your "analysis".  To be exact for the hours you are listing it's 17 for MO and 12 for Perpetuum.  Obviously a 1.42 ratio.  Yet for some reason you decide that you are going to ignore the given user numbers but keep the hours associated with them to then backdoor into different user numbers?

     

    That's quite an.. umm.. interesting look at it...

     

    Anyhow,  next week we get StarVault's latest financials.  It will likely not show sub numbers but it will show whether they lost money again or got the extra 1500 to break even. If they did, then we know the population went up.. and thus the concurrent users most likely did.

    All time classic  MY NEW FAVORITE POST!  (Keep laying those bricks)

    "I should point out that no other company has shipped out a beta on a disc before this." - Official Mortal Online Lead Community Moderator

    Proudly wearing the Harbinger badge since Dec 23, 2017. 

    Coined the phrase "Role-Playing a Development Team" January 2018

    "Oddly Slap is the main reason I stay in these forums." - Mystichaze April 9th 2018

  • osmundaosmunda Member Posts: 1,087

    Originally posted by Gdemami

     


    Originally posted by osmunda



    His point is that those numbers come from Perpetuum online's website, not from Xfire.

    And as I said, such type of thinking is invalid. Linking concurrent user graphs won¨t change anything about it.

    It is no point, it's stupid.

    OK, you were saying "Xfire numbers in no way imply subscriber numbers" so Omali pointed out a number that came from the developer of the game instead of Xfire.  Are you now saying that the number of concurrent users has nothing to do withthe number of subcribers ?

    @ slapshot:   I was comparing the amount of time played to estimate the number of people playing at the same time, NOT to estimate the number of subscribers. The average perpetuum player on x-fire played ~150 minutes/day, whereas the average MO/Darkfall/EVE played ~300 minutes/day. If two games have the same number of people playing but different usage patterns, that will affect the number of concurrent players.  

     P.S. If you look more closely at the comparisons I made, you may note that each starts with a number directly from the company that produces it.  If I had the same for the number of subscribers to Perpetuum, I might have made the comparison you want with the 1.42 ratio.

  • osmundaosmunda Member Posts: 1,087

     

    5/17

    MO:

     #395           down from #389 yesterday Highest: #263 on 2011-04-29      Xfire users playing per day 17   Minutes played  4,693 per day

    Fallen Earth:

    #392          up from #403 yesterday Highest: #92 on 2009-10-07           Xfire users playing per day 17   Minutes played  4,727

    Darkfall: 

    #434           down from #405 yesterday Highest: #49 on 2009-03-18          Xfire users playing per day 14   Minutes played  3,696

    Perpetuum:

    #579          down from #577 yesterday Highest: #360 on 2011-01-30           Xfire users playing per day 12   Minutes played  1,708

    Eve:

    #16           up from #17 yesterday Highest: #6 on 2008-12-18           Xfire users playing per day 1864   Minutes played  408,501

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    One more stupid Xfire trick

    12 playersper day (Perpetuum) / 1864 players per day (EVE) =0.0064

    5/16   12 (Perpetuum) / 1882 (EVE) = 0.0064

    5/15    9 (Perpetuum) /  2005 (EVE) = 0.0045

    The xfire population of  perpetuum is 0.58% the size of EVE's xfire population

    360,000 X 0.0058 = 2088 estimated Perpetuum subscribers

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    One super stupid xfire trick (i,e, using only xfire numbers and derived numbers, including no developer supplied numbers)

    5/17        17 (MO) / 12 (Perpetuum) =1.4

    5/16         17 (MO) / 12 (Perpetuum) =1.4

    5/15         21 (MO) / 9 (Perpetuum) = 2.3

    Average 1.88

    2088 estimated perpetuum population X 1.88 =3,939 estimated MO population

    Obviously, the does not "prove" anything. Xfire is a VERY crude yardstick for comparison, and the further you get into derived numbers, the less reliable the estimates. However since slapshot wanted a comparison of the actual number of players instead of the number of concurrent players, I made the best estimate I could.

    P.S. If they were having a profitable quarter, they probably wouldn't have laid off some of the developers. The real question is whether the reduction in size of the development team was enough to bring their expenses in line with income, which won't be reflected in the coming quarterly statement.

  • Slapshot1188Slapshot1188 Member LegendaryPosts: 17,721

    Originally posted by osmunda

    @ slapshot:   I was comparing the amount of time played to estimate the number of people playing at the same time, NOT to estimate the number of subscribers. The average perpetuum player on x-fire played ~150 minutes/day, whereas the average MO/Darkfall/EVE played ~300 minutes/day. If two games have the same number of people playing but different usage patterns, that will affect the number of concurrent players.  

     P.S. If you look more closely at the comparisons I made, you may note that each starts with a number directly from the company that produces it.  If I had the same for the number of subscribers to Perpetuum, I might have made the comparison you want with the 1.42 ratio.

     You are only using half logic...  If game A has 5 players for a total of 50 hours played and game B has 7 players for a total of 100 hours played... in no way shape or form can you deduce that Game B has twice the number of concurrent players at peak.  That's just nonsense.  Logic would tell you that peak would have the most users.. and that the extra hours of play do not necessarilly indicate higher concurrent users but rather they indicate a longer play span.. which would mean that the players will spill to off-peak hours and have nothing to do with max concurrent users.

    All time classic  MY NEW FAVORITE POST!  (Keep laying those bricks)

    "I should point out that no other company has shipped out a beta on a disc before this." - Official Mortal Online Lead Community Moderator

    Proudly wearing the Harbinger badge since Dec 23, 2017. 

    Coined the phrase "Role-Playing a Development Team" January 2018

    "Oddly Slap is the main reason I stay in these forums." - Mystichaze April 9th 2018

  • osmundaosmunda Member Posts: 1,087

    @ slapshot:  The flipside of your argument is that a player who primarily plays at non-peak hours is more likely to slip into peak hours if they play for longer periods of time.

    Anyway ...

    92 (minimum concurrent users on perpetuum) X 2.86 =263 concurrent players at MO at "trough"

    ~170 (average concurrent users on perpetuum) X 2.86 =482 average concurrent players at MO

    Assuming any validity to the Xfire comparison would imply 250 - 850 concurrent MO players with ~470 being the most likely average,

  • OmaliOmali MMO Business CorrespondentMember UncommonPosts: 1,177

    Originally posted by Gdemami

     




    Originally posted by Omali



    http://content.perpetuum-online.com/feeds/user_peak_graph_1200.png




     

    Your point...?

    I gave you Perpetuum figures, you said Xfire was not a valid source, so I gave you my source.

    image

  • GdemamiGdemami Member EpicPosts: 12,342


    Originally posted by Omali

    I gave you Perpetuum figures, you said Xfire was not a valid source, so I gave you my source.

    Was I arguing Perpetuum figures...?

    Slapshot summed it pretty well in his reply to fallacy of osmudas figures.

  • MoreplexMoreplex Member Posts: 472

    I do not know what all the arguing is for.  The one thing I think we can all agree on is, both games have low numbers, so low I think we can knock the first M off of MMORPG.  The only difference between both games is, one gives actual numbers of people playing and one hides behind forum numbers. 

  • osmundaosmunda Member Posts: 1,087

    Originally posted by Gdemami

     


    Originally posted by Omali



    I gave you Perpetuum figures, you said Xfire was not a valid source, so I gave you my source.




    Was I arguing Perpetuum figures...?

    Slapshot summed it pretty well in his reply to fallacy of osmudas figures.

    Perpetuum figures were the only thing in the post you were responding to when you responded "your point?" If you were not questioning the perpetuum number,  instead arguing that using xfire numbers as a comparator, you could have made your response alot clearer.

    If the fallacy you are referring to is the estimated peak numbers, slapshot had a point. In statistical terms the number of minutes played  (if xfire numbers are reasonably accurate) can be used to to estimate the mean number of concurrent players.  If the distribution of playtime is truly random, longer play times will tend to reduce the standard deviation from the mean. Without knowing how the standard deviations compare, the better comparison would be between the mean number of players, Unfortunately that is garder to estimate from the graph and is not available for EVE. 

  • PhryPhry Member LegendaryPosts: 11,004

    Originally posted by osmunda

    Originally posted by Gdemami

     


    Originally posted by Omali



    I gave you Perpetuum figures, you said Xfire was not a valid source, so I gave you my source.





    Was I arguing Perpetuum figures...?

    Slapshot summed it pretty well in his reply to fallacy of osmudas figures.

    Perpetuum figures were the only thing in the post you were responding to when you responded "your point?" If you were not questioning the perpetuum number,  instead arguing that using xfire numbers as a comparator, you could have made your response alot clearer.

    If the fallacy you are referring to is the estimated peak numbers, slapshot had a point. In statistical terms the number of minutes played  (if xfire numbers are reasonably accurate) can be used to to estimate the mean number of concurrent players.  If the distribution of playtime is truly random, longer play times will tend to reduce the standard deviation from the mean. Without knowing how the standard deviations compare, the better comparison would be between the mean number of players, Unfortunately that is garder to estimate from the graph and is not available for EVE. 

    One of the main reasons that Xfire switched from listing concurrent users to 'time based' useage.. was to disguise the fact that the numbers involved were actually very low... as for accuracy..  its no less accurate than an opinion poll that calls 10 people out of 1000 to ask them what they prefer...  image

  • osmundaosmunda Member Posts: 1,087

    Originally posted by Moreplex

    I do not know what all the arguing is for.  The one thing I think we can all agree on is, both games have low numbers, so low I think we can knock the first M off of MMORPG.  The only difference between both games is, one gives actual numbers of people playing and one hides behind forum numbers. 

    Unfortunately, that boils down to your definition for "massive". If you take WOW's 6 million American and EU players and divide by 466, WOW has an estimated 13,000 players per server. That's probably overestimating since the 466 excludes servers named in Cyrillic http://www.realmhistory.net/arena-statistics/battlegroups/2v2.html.  

    As for " one gives actual numbers of people playing and one hides behind forum numbers " the perpetuum numbers are accessable through a "back door" not readily available on the website since release. Most MMOs don't put out any numbers.

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    5/18

    MO:

    341  up from #395 Highest: #263          users per day 17   minutes played 6,806

    Fallen Earth: 

    434 down from #392  Highest: #92       users per day 16   minutes played 3,775

    Darkfall:

    433   up from #434  Highest: #49          users per day 15  minutes played 3,806

    Perpetuum:

    615   down from #579  Highest: #360     users per day 12  minutes played 1,501

    EVE:

    16     no change for 2 days  Highest: #6     users per day 1907  minutes played 413,888

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    @ Phry: Yep, the sampling rate (estimated from EVE) is about 1%.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    One more stupid xfire trick:

    http://darkfallinfo.com/pmap/index.php?mapserver=eu1&page=clans  857 guilded players active in the last week (EU)

    http://darkfallinfo.com/pmap/index.php?page=clans&sort=members&order=ASC  1290 guilded players active in the last week (US)

    2147 total guilded players active in the last week in darkfall

    Add ~10% as a fudge factor for unguilded and normally active but not playing this week (vacation or whatever)-->2360

    2360/15 X 17 = 2674   yesterdays xfire numbers

    2360/12 X 17 = 3343     5/16 (most favorable)

    2360/ 19 X 21 = 2608    5/15 (least favorable)

    3,492 from the EVE comparison

     

  • MoreplexMoreplex Member Posts: 472

    Osmunda I am starting to think you and Mr. Semantics are best friends.  As far as the Massive part.  I played the trial extensivly 2 times and I will give it a 3rd shot after the Dawn patch.  While I was exploring for monsters to kill I would go hours without seeing anyone.  I hung out in Fab, Meduli, Vadda a couple times.  I also went to the Cave Camp (people called it that but It is not called that on the map.)  I barley saw more than 10-15 people gathered more than a handful of times. 

    I did see a couple pvp fights that had abput 15-20 people.  I play EVE so I am used to having people around me.  I also play some free UO shards that have the same population as MO or DF.  I would not call a game Massive if it has less than 500 members on at any one time.  And I do not think MO had over 500 people on at anytime I played. 

    And I said hides behind forum numbers because from what I read, Star Vault can not even tell it's investors how many people play they give them forum numbers.  And in my mind that tells a story.   Back to my point both games have low numbers.  I am sure both companies do not like how low the population is.

  • GdemamiGdemami Member EpicPosts: 12,342


    Originally posted by osmunda

    If you were not questioning the perpetuum number, instead arguing that using xfire numbers as a comparator, you could have made your response alot clearer.

    If it wasn't clear, you can ask and not to fill blanks the way it suits your case.


    Originally posted by osmundaIf the fallacy you are referring to

    You cannot ensure the xfire users are equally represented in all games. Xfire numbers cannot serve for estimates of subscribers/peaks and be used as a comparison.

  • kastrixkastrix Member Posts: 75

    i have 50 friends, 49 of them play mortal online an 1 play wow. that must mean Mo have loads of more players than wow >>'

    this thread has no logic and does not prove/disprove anything. why even dicuss such nonsens mattes?

  • wmada2kwmada2k Member UncommonPosts: 193

    ^ this

  • GdemamiGdemami Member EpicPosts: 12,342


    Originally posted by kastrix
    i have 50 friends, 49 of them play mortal online an 1 play wow. that must mean Mo have loads of more players than wow >>'

    Because that is not what this thread was about, it is what it was derailed to.

  • GruugGruug Member RarePosts: 1,794

    Originally posted by kastrix

    i have 50 friends, 49 of them play mortal online an 1 play wow. that must mean Mo have loads of more players than wow >>'

    this thread has no logic and does not prove/disprove anything. why even dicuss such nonsens mattes?

     

    Good point. And I would add....my friends and I don't have or therefore use Xfire so we don't exist.....even though we play games together. Using Xfire to make a point of any kind is without logic. ;)

    Let's party like it is 1863!

  • osmundaosmunda Member Posts: 1,087

    @ Moreplex: Perhaps, but whether or not a game is "massively multiplayer" is fundamentally a semantic question.  500  concurrent players (per server) is certainly a valid cutoff (if you feel there is a need for a precise definition), but it would exclude most of the games covered by MMORPG.com and Massively.

     

     


    Originally posted by Gdemami



    Originally posted by osmunda



    If you were not questioning the perpetuum number, instead arguing that using xfire numbers as a comparator, you could have made your response alot clearer.




    If it wasn't clear, you can ask and not to fill blanks the way it suits your case.

    My apologies. It seemed clear that you were challenging the post you were responding to, but that was obviously not the case.


    Originally posted by osmunda

    If the fallacy you are referring to



    You cannot ensure the xfire users are equally represented in all games. Xfire numbers cannot serve for estimates of subscribers/peaks and be used as a comparison.

    Are you proposing a null hypothesis ? (i.e. there is no relationship between the total population of a game and the number of xfire members playing that game on any given day)  If that is the case, then the xfire numbers should vary widely in relationship to the population of a game.

    WOW  6 million   (12 million - 6 million accounts in china)      5/18   30, 747 xfire users---> 0.512 %

    EVE  360,000                                                                                    5/18   1907 xfire users   -----> 0.529%  

    Darkfall  ~2360                                                                                 5/18    15 xfire users        -------> 0.635%

    http://www.pcgamer.com/2011/03/02/eve-online-has-over-360000-players-63170-simultaneous-users-in-january/

     

     

     

    http://darkfallinfo.com/pmap/index.php?mapserver=eu1&page=clans  857 guilded players active in the last week (EU)

    http://darkfallinfo.com/pmap/index.php?page=clans&sort=members&order=ASC  1290 guilded players active in the last week (US)                           2147 total guilded players active in the last week in darkfall

    Add ~10% as a fudge factor for unguilded and normally active but not playing this week (vacation or whatever)-->2360

     



    http://darkfallinfo.com/pmap/index.php?mapserver=eu1&page=clans  857 guilded players active in the last week (EU)

    http://darkfallinfo.com/pmap/index.php?page=clans&sort=members&order=ASC  1290 guilded players active in the last week (US)


    http://darkfallinfo.com/pmap/index.php?mapserver=eu1&page=clans  857 guilded players active in the last week (EU)

    http://darkfallinfo.com/pmap/index.php?page=clans&sort=members&order=ASC  1290 guilded players active in the last week (US)


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