I predict around to 2 million boxes sold at launch

Deewe

It's a nobrainer that the game will have an insane sale rate for a MMO and it will set new records.

 

Now the question is how many will stay subscribed?

Kyleran

I agree, with its iconic IP everyone's going to want to give it a try, and whether or not they stick around depends what there is to do once they've played through a story  line or three.

I know in my case if it turns out to be the standard run instanced dungeons for better gear I won't be around more than a few months.

Short-Straw

When you consider how many people are looking for something new, even a themepark, with the lack of excitement over Rift, the slow death of WoW, and tons of people playing clones, I think the intial sales might be even bigger, say 3 million, maybe even more.

Going out on a limb but, thinking the subs may even reach higher. Really going to depend on the release of other games; GW2, Arche Age, TSW and a few others.

If anything, I might be underestimating the numbers. This game is going to attract a good portion of the WoW playerbase I think. In NA and EU, that's 4 million+ potential customers.

MMOrUS

Originally posted by Kyleran

I agree, with its iconic IP everyone's going to want to give it a try, and whether or not they stick around depends what there is to do once they've played through a story  line or three.

I know in my case if it turns out to be the standard run instanced dungeons for better gear I won't be around more than a few months.

At least your not building yourself up for a great fall and already understand that the game will not be offering any of us anything out of the norm.

With that in mind it will be shiny and new and just like the countless other games out there it is bound to be worth the purchase price for at least 1 months gameplay, I have countless games on my shelves that have entertained me for 1 month, thus have been worth the purchase price.

I'm not expecting something out of this world, I'm expecting to be entertained, a good solid story to fool me into thinking I'm on some epic adventure, and perhaps something that will get me and my friends charging into some deep dark forboding dungeons to save some unfortunates from themselves.

I've nothing else on my calendar to look forward to, let alone the duke nuke-em of 2d gameplay D3 .

Honeymoon69

lets see only competitions are GW2 and secret world after Swtor so plenty of ppl will stick around I am sure. Look at rift its boring but still alot of ppl playing b/c there is no competition atm.

Beanpuie

Originally posted by Short-Straw

When you consider how many people are looking for something new, even a themepark, with the lack of excitement over Rift, the slow death of WoW, and tons of people playing clones, I think the intial sales might be even bigger, say 3 million, maybe even more.

Going out on a limb but, thinking the subs may even reach higher. Really going to depend on the release of other games; GW2, Arche Age, TSW and a few others.

If anything, I might be underestimating the numbers. This game is going to attract a good portion of the WoW playerbase I think. In NA and EU, that's 4 million+ potential customers.

I am with you on that.

 

3 million box sales

 

and

 

i think a solid number of 450,000 subscriptions in a 4 months span.   <--- IF their launch goes smoothly and all initial promises have been met.

Tardcore

I predict zero box sales. The game is never coming out.

Yamota

Very possible as this game feels more like a single player game. However retention will be quite low, no more than 500k subs after 3 months and will probably settle a while at around 300k.

Kabaal

Originally posted by Yamota

Very possible as this game feels more like a single player game. However retention will be quite low, no more than 500k subs after 3 months and will probably settle a while at around 300k.

I tend to follow this line of thought ^ I wouldn't like to hazard a guess at retention though as i've not played the game and not enough is known yet, but i imagine it should be higher than most that have released in recent years after the first couple of months hype has died down which seems to be around the 300k mark for most of em. Unless of course it's not very good but only time will tell us that.

greenbow54

I think the time of year that they release it is going to be a huge factor in box sales and subscription trends for the few months following release.

 

I really do think they hurt themselves by not hitting the spring release date. Everyone is getting out of school, and not only would box sales be good, but they'd have 3 months of solid subs. But, if its not ready its not ready.

 

The second problem is now they're going to be possibly releasing around the same time as GW2, which could really hurt them with box sales. Yes, GW2 has no sub, but the average gamer isn't likely to go out and drop $120 in one month on games, especially MMOs which take a long time to develop characters and what not.

 

and lastly, if they don't get the game out THIS year, I think they're going to see a large drop off in the number of people who are interested in the game. We can only watch trailers and eat up the trickles up information for so long. People are going to start losing interest and pick up other titles that are on the horizon (I know when Arche age comes out, I won't be worried about many other games for awhile).

Philss

If gameplay and end game is good , ppl will stick to it .

 

BTW , maybe there are no really good mmo coming beside GW2 but you guys forget about a game called DIABLO 3 wich will suck a ton of wow player and mmo player , myself included .

Shodanas

Considering the fact that DA:O sold ~3.500.000 boxes then it's safe to presume that TOR's initial sales will be around this number. I know a dozen of people who are extra casual MMO players but played everything Bioware has released so far. All of them state that they are going to buy TOR.

Short-Straw

Originally posted by Beanpuie

Originally posted by Short-Straw

When you consider how many people are looking for something new, even a themepark, with the lack of excitement over Rift, the slow death of WoW, and tons of people playing clones, I think the intial sales might be even bigger, say 3 million, maybe even more.

Going out on a limb but, thinking the subs may even reach higher. Really going to depend on the release of other games; GW2, Arche Age, TSW and a few others.

If anything, I might be underestimating the numbers. This game is going to attract a good portion of the WoW playerbase I think. In NA and EU, that's 4 million+ potential customers.

I am with you on that.

 

3 million box sales

 

and

 

i think a solid number of 450,000 subscriptions in a 4 months span.   <--- IF their launch goes smoothly and all initial promises have been met.

I may crazy but, I think this game is going to keep more long term subs than most people think. It will not be the game of "hardcore gamers" but the more casual crowd. Think of people playing wow/facebook games. There are more casuals than serious gamers. In the long run, these are the people who are going to make up the bulk of the subs.

Look at the number of people playing Rift. There are no hard numbers for sure but is 400k an unreasonable guess? I think SW:ToR has a much bigger pull because of the IP. I've been known to howl at the moon but, I really think this game is going to be bigger than most people on this site think.

bleyzwun

Who cares how many boxes sell?  That's not what's important these days.  It's all about how many subs they will have within 3-6 months. 

nomss

Originally posted by bleyzwun

Who cares how many boxes sell?  That's not what's important these days.  It's all about how many subs they will have within 3-6 months. 

Really? Than GW2 is dead already huh?

Cammy

I agree with the 3-3.5 million number for initial release.

If the game has a very strong endgame and great replayability, they might even get 750k+ subs after 3 months. I just don't think many people will have anything to go back to... I can't speak for anyone else, but Im never going back to WoW - and once SWTOR releases, I won't be going back to RIFT either. I have a feeling others will have a similar mindset and will play it at least until GW2 and/or TSW releases. Arche Age seems to be pretty popular too but IMO it'll be more a niche game than mainstream. 

 

dinams

There is no doubt that it will sell, its bioware and star wars afterall..

 

The real question is, how it will fare after the first months

Teala

They may have high initial sales, but I do not think that people will stick with it due to its lack of other things to do at end game other than raid and obtain gear or creating an alt and doing it all over again.    Unless this game allows for other means of game play like deep crafting, trading, exploration, territorial control...something...I suspect it'll be hard pressed to retain players just like any of the recently released themepark games.    People will play it for 2 or three months, see it for the shallow game it is(single-player co-op online RPG ) and move on.

I mean even WoW offers more to do at the end game than just raiding and getting gear, if you can stand the grind to farm mats to use in crafting.  They also have achievements and other little things one can participate in - all though they too are pretty shallow and weak in nature.

Would it really hurt for these themepark games to add some aspects of a sandbox that will allow players to do more and keep them interested in the game once they hit level cap?   It seems to me that if I was in charge of a game I would want to keep people playing beyond the first 30 days...in fact I would like to retain them for years and years.   Adding some sandbox game play would help do this - IMHO.

Dragim

I predict server mergers around the 3rd month.

I predict they open way to many servers than they need to.

I predict a voice over accidently using a word that some parent over-hears and complains/sues the company.

I predict massive complaining by a number of people.

I predict people defending this IP with fire and brimstone.

I predict that people will predict that most of my predictions will be predicted as half true.

Kabaal

Originally posted by Teala

Would it really hurt for these themepark games to add some aspects of a sandbox that will allow players to do more and keep them interested in the game once they hit level cap?   It seems to me that if I was in charge of a game I would want to keep people playing beyond the first 30 days...in fact I would like to retain them for years and years.   Adding some sandbox game play would help do this - IMHO.

It's easy to say things like "If i was in charge..." but at the end of the day these companies hire the best in the business when it comes to deciding what will make them money via initial box sales and retaining subscribers. The sad fact is that Sand Box does not bring in the money, Theme Park does, if that weren't the case then all we'd be seeing hit the market is Sand Box MMO's.

 

These companies don't just say OMG WOW iz teh bezt thing evah, letz make more theme parkz! They spend a lot of time and money deciding on the right type of game to make them the maximum profits.

Deathsmind

I think everyone is thinking way, way to low of numbers. SWTOR has put more time and money into this project than any MMO has probably put into their games the entire life span. SWTOR is the most costly game ever made. If they do not have 5 mil subscriptions in the first year then this will probably bankrupt them. With that being said they are putting everything they can into this game, all of their blood, sweat, and tears...yum. KOTOR, which this game is loosly based off of won game of the year 2 times in a row, i dont think any other game has ever done that. So obviously the majority of the people are there are going to be hooked, just like when i heard they were doing a movie of the game. I almost jizzed my self. This game is going to have a high demand just because of the fact its from KOTOR. I have been keeping up with this game for the past 3 years and i love the progression it has made. In my eyes this will be something that breaks the dragons back. I think WoW will still be a major compendor but will be taken down a couple pegs because of this game and with another game close to this one will finally destroy WoW, and this is from someone who has been playing wow since Vainilla. They lost a huge player base from their own creation, Wrath. Wrath sucked big time. They decided it would be a great idea to let any idiot into end game content. Making the game that many as strived for to be nothing but a noobs paradise. WoW will make another mistake and just hope it isnt close to the release of this game next year of WoW may kill themselves.

Teala

Originally posted by Kabaal

Originally posted by Teala

Would it really hurt for these themepark games to add some aspects of a sandbox that will allow players to do more and keep them interested in the game once they hit level cap?   It seems to me that if I was in charge of a game I would want to keep people playing beyond the first 30 days...in fact I would like to retain them for years and years.   Adding some sandbox game play would help do this - IMHO.

It's easy to say things like "If i was in charge..." but at the end of the day these companies hire the best in the business when it comes to deciding what will make them money via initial box sales and retaining subscribers. The sad fact is that Sand Box does not bring in the money, Theme Park does, if that weren't the case then all we'd be seeing hit the market is Sand Box MMO's.

 

These companies don't just say OMG WOW iz teh bezt thing evah, letz make more theme parkz! They spend a lot of time and money deciding on the right type of game to make them the maximum profits.

WoW was a fluke in the sense that it grew exceptionally big.   There were numerous reason for this.  But it wasn't simply because it was a themepark game.   You can sit and try to spin that themeparks bring in the players all day long, but the reality is...we've seen games come and go.  Some have actually closed their doors.  Some have gone free to play.  Some have player bases that are measured in the tens of thousands, not hundreds or millions.    Themeparks by the very nature are extremely shallow game play experiences; at least recently released ones that is.    There is not enough their to keep people subscribed.  

Dragim

Originally posted by Teala

[important stuff]  Adding some sandbox game play would help do this - IMHO.

 Give me hide and seek, tag, fort capture, the ability to make a temporary sctructure (maybe a snow fort, wooden fort, something!)  Some kind of role-play theatre in which characters can put on "shows" for others.  Perhaps some kind of racing event! (this could be really cool)...along with the race event, maybe the ability to raise your own mounts, deciding to give them speed, or endurance, or defense, or attack.

They could do all kinds of things..

Kabaal

Originally posted by Teala

WoW was a fluke in the sense that it grew exceptionally big.   There were numerous reason for this.  But it wasn't simply because it was a themepark game.   You can sit and try to spin that themeparks bring in the players all day long, but the reality is...we've seen games come and go.  Some have actually closed their doors.  Some have gone free to play.  Some have player bases that are measured in the tens of thousands, not hundreds or millions.    Themeparks by the very nature are extremely shallow game play experiences; at least recently released ones that is.    There is not enough their to keep people subscribed.  

It's not a case of spin, im really quite sad about the fact but unfortunately it is one. Sandbox isn't where the money is until someone combines everything theme park has to offer with sandbox and judging by the amount of money spent on TOR alone i doubt that's going to happen for a very long time.

joseph567

I predict it will be an utter failure and then masturbate with my tears of Joy, as those who have complained forever about Galaxies cry some more.

ThomasN7

Well I look at it this way, AOC had about a million at launch, Warhammer Online had about a million. I guess it is not too far fetched to think TOR can get a million at launch. Two million is pushing it too much right away. Though SWG never had a million at launch with the iconic ip so I think it is anyone's guess really.