Considering the fact that DA:O sold ~3.500.000 boxes then it's safe to presume that TOR's initial sales will be around this number. I know a dozen of people who are extra casual MMO players but played everything Bioware has released so far. All of them state that they are going to buy TOR.
SW:TOR is an MMORPG, requiring a credit card and monthly fee. So that makes it alot different from DA:O. There are alot of gamers still that simply do not want to pay a monthly fee for a game.
They may have high initial sales, but I do not think that people will stick with it due to its lack of other things to do at end game other than raid and obtain gear or creating an alt and doing it all over again. Unless this game allows for other means of game play like deep crafting, trading, exploration, territorial control...something...I suspect it'll be hard pressed to retain players just like any of the recently released themepark games. People will play it for 2 or three months, see it for the shallow game it is(single-player co-op online RPG ) and move on.
I mean even WoW offers more to do at the end game than just raiding and getting gear, if you can stand the grind to farm mats to use in crafting. They also have achievements and other little things one can participate in - all though they too are pretty shallow and weak in nature.
Would it really hurt for these themepark games to add some aspects of a sandbox that will allow players to do more and keep them interested in the game once they hit level cap? It seems to me that if I was in charge of a game I would want to keep people playing beyond the first 30 days...in fact I would like to retain them for years and years. Adding some sandbox game play would help do this - IMHO.
Well... you're right. But from what I've read, SWTOR does have some sandbox elements.
For example, you get your own personal ship that you can customize. There is said to be territorial control, certain planets are PVP planets, even on PVE servers. I suspect this could keep some folks interested (assuming it's done right of course).
In addition, they mentioned crafting as something you can do in a hardcore type of way - which one would assume has an effect on the economy. I suspect these crafters can build some of the best items in the game - which is something that very much interests me personally (raiding for gear is fine for something to do but it bores me terribly after a short time).
As long as they actually DELIVER (key word) - then I think I'll be happy. Not to mention I can roll an alt and experience another story. Plus - we're just talking about release, by the time I do all of the above - I would hope they'd have a nice few updates out the door
Considering the fact that DA:O sold ~3.500.000 boxes then it's safe to presume that TOR's initial sales will be around this number. I know a dozen of people who are extra casual MMO players but played everything Bioware has released so far. All of them state that they are going to buy TOR.
SW:TOR is an MMORPG, requiring a credit card and monthly fee. So that makes it alot different from DA:O. There are alot of gamers still that simply do not want to pay a monthly fee for a game.
That's very true... I know people who love bioware and own all their games, they just won't pay a sub fee (though they'll throw down $100 a month on games - go figure)
Would it really hurt for these themepark games to add some aspects of a sandbox that will allow players to do more and keep them interested in the game once they hit level cap? It seems to me that if I was in charge of a game I would want to keep people playing beyond the first 30 days...in fact I would like to retain them for years and years. Adding some sandbox game play would help do this - IMHO.
It's easy to say things like "If i was in charge..." but at the end of the day these companies hire the best in the business when it comes to deciding what will make them money via initial box sales and retaining subscribers. The sad fact is that Sand Box does not bring in the money, Theme Park does, if that weren't the case then all we'd be seeing hit the market is Sand Box MMO's.
These companies don't just say OMG WOW iz teh bezt thing evah, letz make more theme parkz! They spend a lot of time and money deciding on the right type of game to make them the maximum profits.
WoW was a fluke in the sense that it grew exceptionally big. There were numerous reason for this. But it wasn't simply because it was a themepark game. You can sit and try to spin that themeparks bring in the players all day long, but the reality is...we've seen games come and go. Some have actually closed their doors. Some have gone free to play. Some have player bases that are measured in the tens of thousands, not hundreds or millions. Themeparks by the very nature are extremely shallow game play experiences; at least recently released ones that is. There is not enough their to keep people subscribed.
Themepark was not what made WoW a success. It was of a number of factors, one that Blizzard had a huge and loyal following and two that it made MMORPGs available to the masses by making it extremely casual and linear and removing alot of what made people afraid of MMORPGs. Such as massive leveling curve, downtime, huge death penalties etc which is what essentially themeparks are like. However this was unheard of at the time and as such drew a huge crowd.
But that ship has sailed and for a game to have a similar impact as WoW then they need to revolutionaize the genre again and from what I have heard, SW:TOR is not doing that. It is a themepark with single player storylines and huge amount of money invested in voice acting. None of which is revolutionary for the genre.
So I would say two million box sales in the first two months but will then steadily decline to maybe 500k subs and then down to a steady 300k after a year. Unless ofcourse it does introduce something really significant that other MMORPGs does not have.
Considering the fact that DA:O sold ~3.500.000 boxes then it's safe to presume that TOR's initial sales will be around this number. I know a dozen of people who are extra casual MMO players but played everything Bioware has released so far. All of them state that they are going to buy TOR.
SW:TOR is an MMORPG, requiring a credit card and monthly fee. So that makes it alot different from DA:O. There are alot of gamers still that simply do not want to pay a monthly fee for a game.
That's very true... I know people who love bioware and own all their games, they just won't pay a sub fee (though they'll throw down $100 a month on games - go figure)
It's simply the idea that you have to keep paying to keep playing a game you've already bought which turns many people away. Even if people spend $100 a month on games if they want to play those games they don't have to pay for it with the exception of the initial fee.
Considering the fact that DA:O sold ~3.500.000 boxes then it's safe to presume that TOR's initial sales will be around this number. I know a dozen of people who are extra casual MMO players but played everything Bioware has released so far. All of them state that they are going to buy TOR.
I don't think its safe to assume that. I mean, SWTOR could sell more than that for all I know but probably for different reasons. Alot of those customers would not have bought DA:O if it was going to have a subscription fee. I'm just saying that many people who buy single player RPG's would never pay for a sub.
Edit: I didnt get to the bottom of the thread, looks like its already been commented on.
Considering the fact that DA:O sold ~3.500.000 boxes then it's safe to presume that TOR's initial sales will be around this number. I know a dozen of people who are extra casual MMO players but played everything Bioware has released so far. All of them state that they are going to buy TOR.
SW:TOR is an MMORPG, requiring a credit card and monthly fee. So that makes it alot different from DA:O. There are alot of gamers still that simply do not want to pay a monthly fee for a game.
The opposite is true too Yamota. There are people who don't play MMORPGs at all, but because its a Star Wars IP with it in the name people will be willing to buy the game. Its the same with Star Trek and even Star Wars Galaxies. Hard to predict how many will be at launch but the excitement level of this game is pretty high and no one can argue about that.
Considering the fact that DA:O sold ~3.500.000 boxes then it's safe to presume that TOR's initial sales will be around this number. I know a dozen of people who are extra casual MMO players but played everything Bioware has released so far. All of them state that they are going to buy TOR.
I don't think its safe to assume that. I mean, SWTOR could sell more than that for all I know but probably for different reasons. Alot of those customers would not have bought DA:O if it was going to have a subscription fee. I'm just saying that many people who buy single player RPG's would never pay for a sub.
Edit: I didnt get to the bottom of the thread, looks like its already been commented on.
Sticking with my 2 milions, it's already a damn huge number for a monthly fee based MMO, especially considering Diablo3 and GW2 are around the corner.
Considering the fact that DA:O sold ~3.500.000 boxes then it's safe to presume that TOR's initial sales will be around this number. I know a dozen of people who are extra casual MMO players but played everything Bioware has released so far. All of them state that they are going to buy TOR.
I don't think its safe to assume that. I mean, SWTOR could sell more than that for all I know but probably for different reasons. Alot of those customers would not have bought DA:O if it was going to have a subscription fee. I'm just saying that many people who buy single player RPG's would never pay for a sub.
Edit: I didnt get to the bottom of the thread, looks like its already been commented on.
Sticking with my 2 milions, it's already a damn huge number for a monthly fee based MMO, especially considering Diablo3 and GW2 are around the corner.
I agree with you. I was just saying that DA:O is not a good indicator because its a very different product (even if gameplay is very similar)
WoW was a fluke in the sense that it grew exceptionally big. There were numerous reason for this. But it wasn't simply because it was a themepark game. You can sit and try to spin that themeparks bring in the players all day long, but the reality is...we've seen games come and go. Some have actually closed their doors. Some have gone free to play. Some have player bases that are measured in the tens of thousands, not hundreds or millions. Themeparks by the very nature are extremely shallow game play experiences; at least recently released ones that is. There is not enough their to keep people subscribed.
It's not a case of spin, im really quite sad about the fact but unfortunately it is one. Sandbox isn't where the money is until someone combines everything theme park has to offer with sandbox and judging by the amount of money spent on TOR alone i doubt that's going to happen for a very long time.
The problem with sandbox games (from talking with friends that play them and my own experience) is that they take WAY TOO MUCH effort. I like playing a more sandbox game myself once in a while, but to be honest, it almost feels like a second job instead of a game. For the more hardcore gamers that is fine, for the most part, but for the casual gamers that truly dominate the market it is not much of a draw. I think that is part of why BioWare went to such great lengths to add the amount of size and content they did for this game. It allowed them to add some of the features of a sandbox, while still retaining the feel of a themepark. Hopefully it truly is the best of both worlds.
As for the 2 million initial sales, I don't know what is considered "initial" but I would not be surprised to see SWTOR hitting upwards of 3.5 to 5 million in sales in the first 6 months. Between BioWare enthusiasts and the Star Wars IP i think even that might be a conservative number. It'll be interesting to find out. Regardless of the initial sales numbers this game will probably keep AT LEAST the standard 30 - 35% subscriber rate after six months that most decent MMOs do.
"If half of what you tell me is a lie, how can I believe any of it?"
WoW was a fluke in the sense that it grew exceptionally big. There were numerous reason for this. But it wasn't simply because it was a themepark game. You can sit and try to spin that themeparks bring in the players all day long, but the reality is...we've seen games come and go. Some have actually closed their doors. Some have gone free to play. Some have player bases that are measured in the tens of thousands, not hundreds or millions. Themeparks by the very nature are extremely shallow game play experiences; at least recently released ones that is. There is not enough their to keep people subscribed.
It's not a case of spin, im really quite sad about the fact but unfortunately it is one. Sandbox isn't where the money is until someone combines everything theme park has to offer with sandbox and judging by the amount of money spent on TOR alone i doubt that's going to happen for a very long time.
With a budget so massive like TORs it will be marketed heavily, this results in more sells. To speculate around numbers is hard but Id be very surprised if it reached below 1,5-2mil simply because of the prev upcomers like AoC/WAR (which reached about 1mil), add that its a casual pve game with a very broad spec of potential players, add the IP. Star Wars probably the best selling IP.. ever. Add bioware/Kotor as well as the massive amount of work/cash that has been put into this project. Not to mention the massive marketing campaign... yeah It will be interesting to see how many box sells Bioware gets from TOR, hard to tell but suffice to say no matter if the game is total crap the game will sell gold.
Remember this is a game that sort of fuses Single playing gamers with mmo vets, no matter how good it turns out in the end it has the potential to attract a lot more people then currently playing other MMOs. Who knows there may be 2 millions copies sold at launch in the US alone, would not surprise me that much.
I'd be surprised to see it break 1m boxes at launch. Too many people have been burned, and especially by SWG.
If it proves to be a good game that doesn't quickly get stale, I could see it being a massive presence but as we all know, companies are pretty good at making games look better pre-launch than they might actually be, even benefitting from player assumptions ("It's beta, we haven't seen endgame yet, wait til launch")
Good luck though, ftw.
Spec'ing properly is a gateway drug. 12 Million People have been meter spammed in heroics.
If gameplay and end game is good , ppl will stick to it .
BTW , maybe there are no really good mmo coming beside GW2 but you guys forget about a game called DIABLO 3 wich will suck a ton of wow player and mmo player , myself included .
D3, the game is a myth and won't be seeing sunlight for another few yrs, Blizzard = a snail with a lead brick tied to it when it comes to releasing anything, and if it's popular, well why not add anohter 3 yrs development time to it, the punters will suck it up and kid themselves that it means the game is getting plenty of polish, haha sure.
I think 2M is pretty reasonable. Warhammer was something like 800k & the hype for SWTOR is about 100x what WAR was. People are definitely turned off by monthly fees but I think SW is a big enough franchise & Bioware has a good enough name & great track record with games to get people who have never played a subscription based game to stick around in SWTOR. If the game has a rich enough story & people aren't rushing to endgame feeling like that's where the real game starts like with WoW & Rift then I think it will hold players interest longer.
guys guys guys... SWTOR is going to be a pc exclusive meaning it wont come near the sales of DA:O which was cross over to 3 different platforms..... so compairing SWTOR to DA:O isnt going to work.
Also remember that a big game like Starcraft 2 only had 1mil boxes sold at launch and 1.5mil after 48 hours..
I think 1-2 mil is a decent ballpark figure to run with. Give or take of course, if word of mouth is good I'd say maybe 3 mil sold by the end of 3 months. As for longevity, who's to say really?
What I don't believe is that adding sandbox features automatically equals to player retention. For those who enjoy sandbox game-play maybe, but it's not an instant win anyway I can look at it.
As I said in another thread; people are growing tired of themeparks, I can understand that. However, the typcial sandbox make-up is even older and was never all that successful at retaining customers in and of itself.
I'll use SWG as an example, even with some of the deepest options in game-play available, it had a hard time keeping people subscribed. It wasn't just because of bugs and other issues either, a lot of it had to do with commitment. Another major issue for it's design was you had to actively seek out fun and create it yourself.
There are a lot of people who A: do not have the time for this and B: the patience for it. All in all this design is aimed at a distinctive type of player, a niche if you will. Sanboxes aren't any more fresh than themeparks are, if anything they're a bit more stale. They also never had much in the way of mass appeal.
For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson
They may have high initial sales, but I do not think that people will stick with it due to its lack of other things to do at end game other than raid and obtain gear or creating an alt and doing it all over again. Unless this game allows for other means of game play like deep crafting, trading, exploration, territorial control...something...I suspect it'll be hard pressed to retain players just like any of the recently released themepark games. People will play it for 2 or three months, see it for the shallow game it is(single-player co-op online RPG ) and move on.
I mean even WoW offers more to do at the end game than just raiding and getting gear, if you can stand the grind to farm mats to use in crafting. They also have achievements and other little things one can participate in - all though they too are pretty shallow and weak in nature.
Would it really hurt for these themepark games to add some aspects of a sandbox that will allow players to do more and keep them interested in the game once they hit level cap? It seems to me that if I was in charge of a game I would want to keep people playing beyond the first 30 days...in fact I would like to retain them for years and years. Adding some sandbox game play would help do this - IMHO.
I agree on the inclusion of sandbox oriented features, personally I find it a must for player retention. Sandbox features offer an unpredictability and thus variety to the gameplay which can enrichen a server community.
As for box sales and player retention, however, hmm, hard to say.
Considering that WAR, AoC and Aion already had 1 million sales, I think a number around 1.5-2 million isn't that strange to expect. With the combination of Star Wars and Bioware and the PR/advertisement power machine of an EA backing it, I wouldn't even be surprised if that climbs to 2.5-3 million sales.
Looking at Rift, it so far holds at 50-60% of its initial player base. And that is with the limited content it has to offer. SWTOR will be more than 10 times the size of Rift, and has multiple times the amount of content that Rift offers, with a leveling experience that is more immersive than Rift has.
Based on that I think player retention will quite possibly be higher for a longer period of time than Rift experiences.
So 1 million players for at least 6 months is I think achievable.
After that, it depends on how solid and good SWTOR will be as a game.
Originally posted by Torvaldr
Outside of WoW there two most popular games world wide have been EVE and Lineage, both of which are sandbox
RIFT seems to be the only recently released theme-park title that is even moderately successful (if you base that on sales and server population).
Actually Lineage is mostly popular only in Korea, and Aion beats it in Korea itself and outside of it. Aion is a themepark styled MMO that easily has more than 1 million subs worldwide.
Also LotrO has been quite successful for a very long period of time, hovering around the 250-300k subs for more than a year.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
I think its almost certainly sell about 2 million copies(SW IP +Biowere), but will it retain the majority of its player base is another question. I'm personally not convinced.
Played: SWG-FFXI-EQ2-Aion
Anticipated in order of Hype: ArcheAge GW2 TERA SWTOR
Not enough info, but looks promising: Blade & Soul
I think its almost certainly sell about 2 million copies(SW IP +Biowere), but will it retain the majority of its player base is another question. I'm personally not convinced.
EA isn't stupid. They've done a lot of numbers crunching and they realize that they can easily retain 500k subscribers, but find 1m to be almost as reasonable.
These figures have been talking about on these forums before. They were taken from some EA invester conferences and EA is usually not wrong about these kinds of things.
I think the game will retain 1m subscribers which is still pretty good, especially if they sell 2m retail codes initially. And I say retail codes because there are going to be a lot of digital purchases, which don't come with boxes.
It's a nobrainer that the game will have an insane sale rate for a MMO and it will set new records.
Now the question is how many will stay subscribed?
Easily, just like Rift it will sell like hotcakes. However, it's impossible to predict the sub rate. If it's the same old tired formula then it will drop off like Rift has. It will be hot until GW2 comes out.
Comments
SW:TOR is an MMORPG, requiring a credit card and monthly fee. So that makes it alot different from DA:O. There are alot of gamers still that simply do not want to pay a monthly fee for a game.
My gaming blog
Well... you're right. But from what I've read, SWTOR does have some sandbox elements.
For example, you get your own personal ship that you can customize. There is said to be territorial control, certain planets are PVP planets, even on PVE servers. I suspect this could keep some folks interested (assuming it's done right of course).
In addition, they mentioned crafting as something you can do in a hardcore type of way - which one would assume has an effect on the economy. I suspect these crafters can build some of the best items in the game - which is something that very much interests me personally (raiding for gear is fine for something to do but it bores me terribly after a short time).
As long as they actually DELIVER (key word) - then I think I'll be happy. Not to mention I can roll an alt and experience another story. Plus - we're just talking about release, by the time I do all of the above - I would hope they'd have a nice few updates out the door
That's very true... I know people who love bioware and own all their games, they just won't pay a sub fee (though they'll throw down $100 a month on games - go figure)
Themepark was not what made WoW a success. It was of a number of factors, one that Blizzard had a huge and loyal following and two that it made MMORPGs available to the masses by making it extremely casual and linear and removing alot of what made people afraid of MMORPGs. Such as massive leveling curve, downtime, huge death penalties etc which is what essentially themeparks are like. However this was unheard of at the time and as such drew a huge crowd.
But that ship has sailed and for a game to have a similar impact as WoW then they need to revolutionaize the genre again and from what I have heard, SW:TOR is not doing that. It is a themepark with single player storylines and huge amount of money invested in voice acting. None of which is revolutionary for the genre.
So I would say two million box sales in the first two months but will then steadily decline to maybe 500k subs and then down to a steady 300k after a year. Unless ofcourse it does introduce something really significant that other MMORPGs does not have.
My gaming blog
It's simply the idea that you have to keep paying to keep playing a game you've already bought which turns many people away. Even if people spend $100 a month on games if they want to play those games they don't have to pay for it with the exception of the initial fee.
I don't think its safe to assume that. I mean, SWTOR could sell more than that for all I know but probably for different reasons. Alot of those customers would not have bought DA:O if it was going to have a subscription fee. I'm just saying that many people who buy single player RPG's would never pay for a sub.
Edit: I didnt get to the bottom of the thread, looks like its already been commented on.
Remember Old School Ultima Online
The opposite is true too Yamota. There are people who don't play MMORPGs at all, but because its a Star Wars IP with it in the name people will be willing to buy the game. Its the same with Star Trek and even Star Wars Galaxies. Hard to predict how many will be at launch but the excitement level of this game is pretty high and no one can argue about that.
Sticking with my 2 milions, it's already a damn huge number for a monthly fee based MMO, especially considering Diablo3 and GW2 are around the corner.
I agree with you. I was just saying that DA:O is not a good indicator because its a very different product (even if gameplay is very similar)
Remember Old School Ultima Online
The problem with sandbox games (from talking with friends that play them and my own experience) is that they take WAY TOO MUCH effort. I like playing a more sandbox game myself once in a while, but to be honest, it almost feels like a second job instead of a game. For the more hardcore gamers that is fine, for the most part, but for the casual gamers that truly dominate the market it is not much of a draw. I think that is part of why BioWare went to such great lengths to add the amount of size and content they did for this game. It allowed them to add some of the features of a sandbox, while still retaining the feel of a themepark. Hopefully it truly is the best of both worlds.
As for the 2 million initial sales, I don't know what is considered "initial" but I would not be surprised to see SWTOR hitting upwards of 3.5 to 5 million in sales in the first 6 months. Between BioWare enthusiasts and the Star Wars IP i think even that might be a conservative number. It'll be interesting to find out. Regardless of the initial sales numbers this game will probably keep AT LEAST the standard 30 - 35% subscriber rate after six months that most decent MMOs do.
"If half of what you tell me is a lie, how can I believe any of it?"
It's happening right now: Archeage Online
It's also my most anticipated game... probably will come out after SWTOR though
Remember Old School Ultima Online
With a budget so massive like TORs it will be marketed heavily, this results in more sells. To speculate around numbers is hard but Id be very surprised if it reached below 1,5-2mil simply because of the prev upcomers like AoC/WAR (which reached about 1mil), add that its a casual pve game with a very broad spec of potential players, add the IP. Star Wars probably the best selling IP.. ever. Add bioware/Kotor as well as the massive amount of work/cash that has been put into this project. Not to mention the massive marketing campaign... yeah It will be interesting to see how many box sells Bioware gets from TOR, hard to tell but suffice to say no matter if the game is total crap the game will sell gold.
Remember this is a game that sort of fuses Single playing gamers with mmo vets, no matter how good it turns out in the end it has the potential to attract a lot more people then currently playing other MMOs. Who knows there may be 2 millions copies sold at launch in the US alone, would not surprise me that much.
I'd be surprised to see it break 1m boxes at launch. Too many people have been burned, and especially by SWG.
If it proves to be a good game that doesn't quickly get stale, I could see it being a massive presence but as we all know, companies are pretty good at making games look better pre-launch than they might actually be, even benefitting from player assumptions ("It's beta, we haven't seen endgame yet, wait til launch")
Good luck though, ftw.
Spec'ing properly is a gateway drug.
12 Million People have been meter spammed in heroics.
D3, the game is a myth and won't be seeing sunlight for another few yrs, Blizzard = a snail with a lead brick tied to it when it comes to releasing anything, and if it's popular, well why not add anohter 3 yrs development time to it, the punters will suck it up and kid themselves that it means the game is getting plenty of polish, haha sure.
I think 2M is pretty reasonable. Warhammer was something like 800k & the hype for SWTOR is about 100x what WAR was. People are definitely turned off by monthly fees but I think SW is a big enough franchise & Bioware has a good enough name & great track record with games to get people who have never played a subscription based game to stick around in SWTOR. If the game has a rich enough story & people aren't rushing to endgame feeling like that's where the real game starts like with WoW & Rift then I think it will hold players interest longer.
guys guys guys... SWTOR is going to be a pc exclusive meaning it wont come near the sales of DA:O which was cross over to 3 different platforms..... so compairing SWTOR to DA:O isnt going to work.
Also remember that a big game like Starcraft 2 only had 1mil boxes sold at launch and 1.5mil after 48 hours..
I predict SWTOR will sell 100 boxes and after 3 months will loose 99 subscribers.
EA will shut down their servers and start to fall.
Bioware is going to be known as the worst company in videogame history and will stop making games.
Dr Ray and Dr Greg are going back to medicine again.
6 months after the fall of SWTOR, EA closes doors.
George Lucas will be poor after the fall of SWTOR and will beg money for buying booze and cigarrets that make people laugh.
WoW will be the king for the next 100 years and it will have 2 billion subs.
Blizzard will take over the world and all their next games are going to be sandbox.
Question: Am i doing it right?
Not quite over-the-top-enough. Just a touch more sarcasm and you should have it.
Damn... i need to improve my skills. Let me call blizzard, maybe they can help!
Think there's something in the cash shop now that could help us on our forum skills.
I think 1-2 mil is a decent ballpark figure to run with. Give or take of course, if word of mouth is good I'd say maybe 3 mil sold by the end of 3 months. As for longevity, who's to say really?
What I don't believe is that adding sandbox features automatically equals to player retention. For those who enjoy sandbox game-play maybe, but it's not an instant win anyway I can look at it.
As I said in another thread; people are growing tired of themeparks, I can understand that. However, the typcial sandbox make-up is even older and was never all that successful at retaining customers in and of itself.
I'll use SWG as an example, even with some of the deepest options in game-play available, it had a hard time keeping people subscribed. It wasn't just because of bugs and other issues either, a lot of it had to do with commitment. Another major issue for it's design was you had to actively seek out fun and create it yourself.
There are a lot of people who A: do not have the time for this and B: the patience for it. All in all this design is aimed at a distinctive type of player, a niche if you will. Sanboxes aren't any more fresh than themeparks are, if anything they're a bit more stale. They also never had much in the way of mass appeal.
For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson
I agree on the inclusion of sandbox oriented features, personally I find it a must for player retention. Sandbox features offer an unpredictability and thus variety to the gameplay which can enrichen a server community.
As for box sales and player retention, however, hmm, hard to say.
Considering that WAR, AoC and Aion already had 1 million sales, I think a number around 1.5-2 million isn't that strange to expect. With the combination of Star Wars and Bioware and the PR/advertisement power machine of an EA backing it, I wouldn't even be surprised if that climbs to 2.5-3 million sales.
Looking at Rift, it so far holds at 50-60% of its initial player base. And that is with the limited content it has to offer. SWTOR will be more than 10 times the size of Rift, and has multiple times the amount of content that Rift offers, with a leveling experience that is more immersive than Rift has.
Based on that I think player retention will quite possibly be higher for a longer period of time than Rift experiences.
So 1 million players for at least 6 months is I think achievable.
After that, it depends on how solid and good SWTOR will be as a game.
Actually Lineage is mostly popular only in Korea, and Aion beats it in Korea itself and outside of it. Aion is a themepark styled MMO that easily has more than 1 million subs worldwide.
Also LotrO has been quite successful for a very long period of time, hovering around the 250-300k subs for more than a year.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
I think its almost certainly sell about 2 million copies(SW IP +Biowere), but will it retain the majority of its player base is another question. I'm personally not convinced.
Played: SWG-FFXI-EQ2-Aion
Anticipated in order of Hype:
ArcheAge
GW2
TERA
SWTOR
Not enough info, but looks promising:
Blade & Soul
EA isn't stupid. They've done a lot of numbers crunching and they realize that they can easily retain 500k subscribers, but find 1m to be almost as reasonable.
These figures have been talking about on these forums before. They were taken from some EA invester conferences and EA is usually not wrong about these kinds of things.
I think the game will retain 1m subscribers which is still pretty good, especially if they sell 2m retail codes initially. And I say retail codes because there are going to be a lot of digital purchases, which don't come with boxes.
Easily, just like Rift it will sell like hotcakes. However, it's impossible to predict the sub rate. If it's the same old tired formula then it will drop off like Rift has. It will be hot until GW2 comes out.