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Let's have it, predictions: launch sales, retention, etc
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Agree, but haters gonna hate, easy like that.
I probally think it's retention rate will be about 20% after the free month, The game honestly has very little replay value, and very little reason to keep playing it, with worthless raids due to expertise on pvp gear (SHould be removed imo so pve raiding is the best gear period for any activity) The classes are also bascally cut and pasted from world of warcraft, the classes also are mirrored so combat wise both sides are identical. I really don't see any one thing that could keep people intersted past the free month, I played the game on a beta weekend, and by 2nd day the game was already getting boring to me and putting me to sleep playing it. Combat for the most part can be done with your eyes closed just pressing buttons, its that full of fail lol.
My overall rating for the game is 5 maybe 6 out of 10. I feel the game has gave up too much just to have some pointless voice overs on quests. They should have spent that budget on making some actually decent gameplay insted of just copy and pasting about 75% of the game and its systems/classes from world of warcraft. In my eyes the game looks very lazily done with nothing really innovative or even nothing there that hasn't been done to death in other mmo's. Bioware did deliver what they promised which was a "traditional mmorpg" but now a days that means "boring world of warcraft clone with nothing orignal or innovative" Like Rift I expect the game to lose most of its players when it comes time to pony up, after the included month, though due to fanboys and how blinded they can be, it'll probally have a higher retention rate than the game deserves.
All I can say si if any site gives this higher than a 7/10 Imma call bullshit and figure the site got bribed into giving it a better review than it should have gotten (and don't say it doesn't happen, because it does)
I'll just be glad a month or 2 after swtor comes out, and it ends up failing hard, so I can stop hearing about this piece of star wars of clonecraft on every damned gaming forum on the planet.
Being a pessimist is a win-win pattern of thinking. If you're a pessimist (I'll admit that I am!) you're either:
A. Proven right (if something bad happens)
or
B. Pleasantly surprised (if something good happens)
Either way, you can't lose! Try it out sometime!
I predict...we will know in 2012 :P If the world does not end that is
But if i have to..
First year 2 to 3 mill total sales. Thats pushing it really, i am thinking a lot will get sold since it is a christmas release. IF they have enough boxes in the stores. if the stores are sold out that wont happen. They may have missed the mark a bit and should of tried for a early December launch.
On the retention front, i think under 800k at end of 2012. But again that will be hard to prove either way. Since it is hard to get any info from these game companies on actual paying subs.
Also in 2012, Life time sub offers for it. And if they can do a major release (new end game content/PVP by the 3 and 6 month mark i would up the retention to just over 1 mill by end of 2012.
oops dropped my crystal ball... thats it for me.
These kind of predictions of F2P within a year make me giggle uncontrollably. Anyway, I'm expected box sales of around 4 million at launch or within a month of launch and a retention rate of no less than 50% for the first year, which would give them a subscriber base of about 2 million people minimum through the first year. If BW pumps out content at a good pace and adds in some missing features, expect that retention rate to expand.
This game will be the solid #2 MMO behind WoW in terms of subscribers, and depending on what BW does post launch, has a chance to take over as #1 within a couple years of release. {mod edit} Particularly when you realize that aside from story, this game still offers more content at launch than many themepark MMOs have after a full year of being live. There is more than enough content there to keep people happy for months, and you can bet that BW is going to keep churning it out.
Its an average MMO, I feel its got legs and will get better in time.
Because its launch state shows a normal MMO I predict 50% drop after the first month, this I think this is a fairly normal thing for a modern mmo, many people play at launch and after the initial month they go to something else (back to thier usuall mmo)
First month sales at .... 1.5mil, just a guess, Iv gone with digital from Origin.
I hope to still be playing in 6 months and this would count as a great success in my book.
sales look pretty impressive, if they retain 30% in 6 months they have done well. My fear for this game is that the nightmare that EA is doesnt provide Bioware with the funding for future content or else tries to determine the direction of the game rather than leaving Bioware to get on with it.
They are already working on future content. Ea isnt gonna abandon a game that will have over 3 million sales on launch day.
thats just stupid
Plus bioware has complete autonomy on tor. From everything devs have said.
Taht said i think tor has 4 million by launch day with pre orderd and launch day sales. i think there enough players who wanna play all 8 classes for the class stories that player retention will be 70 pct of better after 6 months
I also think tor like wow will add players as they go so in the end that 30 pct loss will be made up and by end of yr they are sitting steady at 5 millon subs world wide
As they expand into other areas like australia and such any sub losses will be made up in those areas.
Ok first.... You need to learn about regions. Where I live they had plenty of Skyrim copies on all platforms. Inluding the big Collector's Edition. I preordered one for PC and picked up another that day for Xbox. Just cause they are sold out in one region doesnt mean they are sold out all over the world.
As for TOR. A friend of mine works at Gamestop. And I dont mean some guy I met there. I mean a guy I grew up with. He has already told me. CE's are sold out completely right now. But SE's there should be enough in my region. However some regions will be deserts even on the SE. I think its something planned by EA so people that really want to play but didnt preorder will be forced to get a digital off Origin so EA gets all the money, not just a portion.
As for putting TOR on top of SWG? No way no how. I love SWG. It was my first official MMO. I even logged before the lock out and spent a month taking tons of pics and even a few videos of everything I could find so that I can look back on it. But truth be told. SWG was crap code in a box. The original designers of the engine couldnt even get it to work right and scrapped their MMO they were planning because of it. You dont build on something like that.
What do you think the NGE was? It was the whole sale ripping out of code they couldnt get to work no matter what they did. Not to mention SWG, I am sorry is dated. There is no way they could do what they did in TOR, in SWG. Just cant happen. Plus add into that the legal ramifications of IPs and such. It would have been a huge logistical nightmare. Lastly SWG has such a stigma now and forever, most smart game companies dont want to even be remotely associated with it.
As for Dust 514, it uses the Unreal 3 engine. Last time I looked, Eve uses its own engine with DX9 and Stackless Python. So I really dont think they are putting Dust on top of it. From what I read, it looks more like they are just connecting the two so they can communicate with each other.
Kai
Couldn't agree more.
SWTOR is bringing new stuff to the table like other mmorpgs did as well lol.
I'm positive SWTOR will have a good star, then a ok retention, and have ups and downs like the current gen mmorpgs usually have well least AAA current gen mmorpgs.
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I'm not afraid to tell trolls what they [need] to hear, even if that means for me to have an forced absence afterwards.
P2P LOGIC = If it's P2P it means longevity, overall better game, and THE BEST SUPPORT EVER!!!!!(Which has been rinsed and repeated about a thousand times)
Common Sense Logic = P2P logic is no better than F2P Logic.
probably the lowest estimation is within 1-2 millions on launch
in term of long term subscription:
-) It largely depends on how bioware going to react within january (diablo3 release) until probz April or May (gw2 betas probably somewhr ther ), that means : new content and in-game problems (bugs most probz) . Something to distract players to see newer and promising games.
-) Summer 2012 is a critical point , Big expansion or 1.2 big patch needs to be somewhere there, coz i sense the pandas are coming ... big gamble here..
basically : they keep the players within 1-2 millions in 2012 , they win.
Launch 2.5 milion
3 Months 500k left from launch but they gain another 300k new players
6 months 500k
1 year 3-400k
1.5 year + 150--300k making them the number 2 subscrition Western MMO. A pretty healthy number for the long term.
I think the turnover will be very high but they have the ability to bring in lots of new people to replace the ones leaving. Iguess the question is where will they level off. 500k? 400k? 200k? Either way I think they along with Rift are the two liklist MMOs to actually keep retaining their population in the long run.
I think tor will do that. Mop isnt gonna save wow. I read alot of rage from wow players about that. I dont have an issue with it. That said i dont think wow needs saving. I just dont see mop briging back the lost subs
My thing is they intend to churn out new content fast. Just go read the ign article My fav part of the interview was when he said they were gonna be release major content patches with no fee.
That let u go to new planets in the universe. I cant wait for that. Bioware seems to have a really good long term plan. hopefully they release new content a bit faster then wow does but u never know.
I think tors class unique stories is being underestimated by those thinking tor will lose 50 pct of there subs. I know alot of players who wanna play all the classes.
im not the only one who wants to do that.
Not so much a prediction as a forgone conclusion.
Initial Sales = amazing, record breaking.
Retention = paltry, record setting falling sub numbers.
I'd make a guess that the retention rate will be well below 50%.
By all accounts, TOR has nothing that really qualifies as an endgame by modern MMO standards, and the predictions of '200 hours to the cap' are way, way off. I think we'll have bored 50s wandering Kaas City/Coruscant in the first week. Rerolling isn't as awesome an option as it would at first appear to be, either. Probably upwards of 90% of the quests in the game are shared. After a while, I was skipping nearly all the flavor text because I'd seen it play out 2-3 times before on other classes. When you get 1-2 class quests per planet, and are skipping the dialogue for everything else, the replay value becomes almost nonexistent.
Don't get me wrong, I love the game, and I am in this for the long haul. But I have things like roleplaying and world PvP to distract me from the obvious failings in TOR. Most players don't, and are not over-the-top in love with Star Wars. They will leave.
Huge sales, with below average retention, which may mean a problem down the road....depending on how they deal with content/updates, but I still see below average retention for AAA.
Care to elaborate on what exactly qualifies as "endgame by modern MMO standards"? Last time i checked this "nothing" consists of 17 flashpoints and 2 Operations from start. With heroic modes as well. And just yesterday James Ohlen stated that they are already working on new instances, planets, a second FFA PvP planet as well.
I play MMO's since Ultima online and no themepark MMO has ever launched with this amount of content, not even WoW.
Its actually closer to 150-175, Assuming you craft and do a little PvP then yes 200 is actually rather close.
Yes Because raiding, end game OWPvP, FFA PvP and an end-game solo planet is not up to mmo standards.
tag
oh damn son, you passin' opinion as a fact yo.
Currently Playing: SSFIV AE, SFxTekken, SWTOR, WoW. Waiting for: GW2, Resident Evil 6.
If the relationship in the past between vgchartz pre-order estimates and first month actual sales hold steady, TOR is already well past that mark, based on pre-orders alone.
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5 million sold within the first 6 months. Retention rate of 60%.
After 1 or 2 years, SWTOR opens with Korean, Japanese, and Chinese language versions. Anybodies guess at that point.
Also, I see a Spanish language version coming out in 3-4 years as South America becomes a viable opportunity.
My prediction for USA + Europe incl. digital downloads
Preorders sales: 2 - 2.5m
1st month total sales: 4-5m
Subs after free month: ~3m
Subs after 6 months, assuming Pandaria + GW2 launched: ~1m
Hype train -> Reality
My predecition is SWTOR will go on to be a hugely successful MMO. It wont hit WoW numbers. I don't think any MMO ever will. But it will easily get about 3 million subs the first few months and probably hold on to 2/3 of them then slowy increase sub counts over the next year or so.
Ya, i know its not the norm with how MMO releases go. But SWTOR just feels different. Different not in gameplay but just the overall feel on this launch. There is a huge community not only backing it but also huge amounts of resources and support from major mmo sites.
Even the beta (to me at least), seemed different. It was the most polished game I have ever tested , and i tested every major MMO since EQ.
So again, barring any major hick-up (ala NGU) this game will be successful. Now that doesn;t mean who ever is reading this will like the game but there will be a ton of people that do.
SWTOR will sell. I personally know 5 people who would never touch an mmo with a ten foot pole, but will be playing tor because it's star wars.