Let's have it, predictions: launch sales, retention, etc

Teala

Originally posted by Cthulhu23

Originally posted by Distaste

First off the 1 million box sales does include Europe and digital. EA reports a number and doesn't make the distinction between NA, EU, and Digital. VGCharts just takes that number and tacks it on the NA side.

I'd like to revisit this point.  That doesn't sound right to me, but I could be mistaken.  Everything I've read has stated the VGCharts are only counting US box sales.  Can anyone else verify this?  I know on their site it says US box preorders, but if the above poster is correct, than that is only because EA doesn't differentiate when they send them the numbers?  However, I could have sworn EA stated their number was much larger than the numbers we were getting from the VGCharts.  

Anyone know for sure one way or the other?  The above poster's claim may be correct, but it's the first I've heard of it.

It is box sales pre-order USA which includes latin and South America and Canada...right now it is sitting at around 910k boxes.

Shodanas

Originally posted by Distaste

Originally posted by kalinis

Anyone saying 1 million subs first year 320,000 after doestn have a clue. Im sorry its just uninformed they have 1 mill box sales in us alone. Thats not counting europe box sales or digital sales. so they are gonna sell over 4 million copies by launch day.

In those 2 regions. People in other regions are pre ordering to play in there countries also. I gaurantee people in australia arent waiting for it to come there as release to buy it. 

that said tor will maintain at least 80 pct of it splayer base. Because its starwars. Its bioware story and the players i talked to in beta all wanted to play all the classes. Not just one.

So yea go ahead underestimate the replayablility of tor not to mention bioware is already hard at work on new content. 

If bioware puts otu content on a 2 month schedule for the first year they may lose 2-3 pt of there sub base but thats it. 

Truth is this game is gonna do so much better then those sayign free 2 play and 320 subs affter a yr realize

They underestimate how many non mmo gamers re coming into the mmos for tor. Or how many star wars, and biowre fans there are out there.

Oh ill buy mass effect 3 and play it and tor. U know sometimes i need time off from my mmos never more then a day or so but during that time i play my console. I can also play my console when i let my nephews on my computer or share it with others. 

Sometimes ill play my console to wait for my gf to get done her facebook crap so we can level together. 

so people buy console games and play mmos and dont stop subbing for that. I dont see anyone dropping a sub to tor for any bioware single player game. 

Taht said to many understimate the power of the star wars ip on this forum just cause they dont liek the game its why they are wrong also.l

First off the 1 million box sales does include Europe and digital. EA reports a number and doesn't make the distinction between NA, EU, and Digital. VGCharts just takes that number and tacks it on the NA side.

It seems you are the one misinformed. There are only 2.4 million registered SWTOR users and only 2 million of them signed up for beta. So you're expecting that 2 million more people than were interested in the game are suddenly going to buy it before launch day? The need to have an account for the pre-order code to work so...I'd also like to mention that a good number of those 2.4 million are troll accounts or extra chances at beta.

1.5 million is my bet and its the same bet I've been making since 2009 ish. That will drop to ~750k in 3 months and 400-500k in 6 months. That of course does not account for D3, Secret World, or GW2. GW2 will be the biggest competitor and probably shave at least 250k off. D3 might be100k, and Secret world might be 50k-100k depending on how their marketing does.

As for the replayability, did the players you talked to make it passed 30? I made it to 50 and most of the people I've talked to don't want to have to do all the filler quests again. Once is alright, twice is painful. A lot of people start skipping the VO/cutscenes at ~30 when filler quests are 95% of what you do. Replayability was brought up time and time again on the forums as a major concern so there is definitely a good chance it will be an issue in retention.

80% retention is also a huge overestimation. If I remember correctly most MMO's shoot for >50%, 60% is good and 70% is great. Bioware couldn't even retain 80% of people in ME2(Only 50% ever finished one playthrough) so what makes you think they will hit 80%? Is it because it is Star Wars? I hate to say it but Star Wars only gets people in the door, it isn't a retention mechanic. The reason SWG stuck around so long was purely the community, which will not be good in SWTOR.

Stop spreading BS on the forums. People can use Google and watch relevant info you know. 1 million is the number for the box preorders in NA alone. Digital preorders for NA as well as both digital and box ones for EU are NOT accounted. 

http://www.vgchartz.com/charts/preorders.php (these figures are 10 days old)

As for you leveling to 50 in 70 hours while doing both flashpoints and pvp, you're just lying. Simple as that. It took me and my guildmates an average of 30 hours to reach level 25 without any PvP and we entered only 2 flashpoints. Even if you skip ALL the sidequests and miss 50% of the game there is no way you can reach the level cap in this time frame. 

 

 

Cthulhu23

Originally posted by Teala

Originally posted by Cthulhu23

Originally posted by Distaste

First off the 1 million box sales does include Europe and digital. EA reports a number and doesn't make the distinction between NA, EU, and Digital. VGCharts just takes that number and tacks it on the NA side.

I'd like to revisit this point.  That doesn't sound right to me, but I could be mistaken.  Everything I've read has stated the VGCharts are only counting US box sales.  Can anyone else verify this?  I know on their site it says US box preorders, but if the above poster is correct, than that is only because EA doesn't differentiate when they send them the numbers?  However, I could have sworn EA stated their number was much larger than the numbers we were getting from the VGCharts.  

Anyone know for sure one way or the other?  The above poster's claim may be correct, but it's the first I've heard of it.

It is box sales pre-order USA which includes latin and South America and Canada...right now it is sitting at around 910k boxes.

Ah okay, that's what I thought.  Just didn't want to go saying the poster was wrong if I had my facts messed up.  

Shodanas

Originally posted by Teala

Originally posted by Cthulhu23

Originally posted by Distaste

First off the 1 million box sales does include Europe and digital. EA reports a number and doesn't make the distinction between NA, EU, and Digital. VGCharts just takes that number and tacks it on the NA side.

I'd like to revisit this point.  That doesn't sound right to me, but I could be mistaken.  Everything I've read has stated the VGCharts are only counting US box sales.  Can anyone else verify this?  I know on their site it says US box preorders, but if the above poster is correct, than that is only because EA doesn't differentiate when they send them the numbers?  However, I could have sworn EA stated their number was much larger than the numbers we were getting from the VGCharts.  

Anyone know for sure one way or the other?  The above poster's claim may be correct, but it's the first I've heard of it.

It is box sales pre-order USA which includes latin and South America and Canada...right now it is sitting at around 910k boxes.

The BS flying around on these boards is overwhelming.

 http://www.vgchartz.com/charts/preorders.php these are the 10 day old numbers for box (NOT the digital ones) preorders in the USA. How on Earth did you came up with that South - Latin America crap is beyond me. TOR is NOT launching neither in Latin nor in South America. 

I could not find any figures regarding the EU box and digital preorders but it's safe to assume that the number must be way past the 1 million mark. 

dubyahite

Originally posted by Shodanas

Originally posted by Teala

Originally posted by Cthulhu23

Originally posted by Distaste

First off the 1 million box sales does include Europe and digital. EA reports a number and doesn't make the distinction between NA, EU, and Digital. VGCharts just takes that number and tacks it on the NA side.

I'd like to revisit this point.  That doesn't sound right to me, but I could be mistaken.  Everything I've read has stated the VGCharts are only counting US box sales.  Can anyone else verify this?  I know on their site it says US box preorders, but if the above poster is correct, than that is only because EA doesn't differentiate when they send them the numbers?  However, I could have sworn EA stated their number was much larger than the numbers we were getting from the VGCharts.  

Anyone know for sure one way or the other?  The above poster's claim may be correct, but it's the first I've heard of it.

It is box sales pre-order USA which includes latin and South America and Canada...right now it is sitting at around 910k boxes.

The BS flying around on these boards is overwhelming.

 http://www.vgchartz.com/charts/preorders.php these are the 10 day old numbers for box (NOT the digital ones) preorders in the USA. How on Earth did you came up with that South - Latin America crap is beyond me. TOR is NOT launching neither in Latin nor in South America. 

I could not find any figures regarding the EU box and digital preorders but it's safe to assume that the number must be way past the 1 million mark. 

Quite clearly says USA only. 

Guileplayer

Originally posted by Teala

Originally posted by Cthulhu23

Originally posted by Distaste

First off the 1 million box sales does include Europe and digital. EA reports a number and doesn't make the distinction between NA, EU, and Digital. VGCharts just takes that number and tacks it on the NA side.

I'd like to revisit this point.  That doesn't sound right to me, but I could be mistaken.  Everything I've read has stated the VGCharts are only counting US box sales.  Can anyone else verify this?  I know on their site it says US box preorders, but if the above poster is correct, than that is only because EA doesn't differentiate when they send them the numbers?  However, I could have sworn EA stated their number was much larger than the numbers we were getting from the VGCharts.  

Anyone know for sure one way or the other?  The above poster's claim may be correct, but it's the first I've heard of it.

It is box sales pre-order USA which includes latin and South America and Canada...right now it is sitting at around 910k boxes.

lol...the title on the top says USA pre-order number hahaha. USA includes south america? /facepalm. My friend you need geopraphical lesson: Here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States USA is a country like Canada. South america and north america are continents lol. USA is not a continent. 

Also TOR is not launching in South America. But then again this is MMORPG.com so i don't expect much. These boards are filled with nothing but useless topics anyway.

dubyahite

Originally posted by Guileplayer

Originally posted by Teala

Originally posted by Cthulhu23

Originally posted by Distaste

First off the 1 million box sales does include Europe and digital. EA reports a number and doesn't make the distinction between NA, EU, and Digital. VGCharts just takes that number and tacks it on the NA side.

I'd like to revisit this point.  That doesn't sound right to me, but I could be mistaken.  Everything I've read has stated the VGCharts are only counting US box sales.  Can anyone else verify this?  I know on their site it says US box preorders, but if the above poster is correct, than that is only because EA doesn't differentiate when they send them the numbers?  However, I could have sworn EA stated their number was much larger than the numbers we were getting from the VGCharts.  

Anyone know for sure one way or the other?  The above poster's claim may be correct, but it's the first I've heard of it.

It is box sales pre-order USA which includes latin and South America and Canada...right now it is sitting at around 910k boxes.

lol...the title on the top says USA pre-order number hahaha. USA includes south america? /facepalm. My friend you need geopraphical lesson: Here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States USA is a country like Canada. South america and north america are continents lol. USA is not a continent. 

Also TOR is not launching in South America. But then again this is MMORPG.com so i don't expect much. These boards are filled with nothing but useless topics anyway.

Well, technically if the game is not launching in South America, then it kind of does include the South American box sale numbers. It's just that the number is zero.,..

Teala

Originally posted by Guileplayer

Originally posted by Teala

Originally posted by Cthulhu23

Originally posted by Distaste

First off the 1 million box sales does include Europe and digital. EA reports a number and doesn't make the distinction between NA, EU, and Digital. VGCharts just takes that number and tacks it on the NA side.

I'd like to revisit this point.  That doesn't sound right to me, but I could be mistaken.  Everything I've read has stated the VGCharts are only counting US box sales.  Can anyone else verify this?  I know on their site it says US box preorders, but if the above poster is correct, than that is only because EA doesn't differentiate when they send them the numbers?  However, I could have sworn EA stated their number was much larger than the numbers we were getting from the VGCharts.  

Anyone know for sure one way or the other?  The above poster's claim may be correct, but it's the first I've heard of it.

It is box sales pre-order USA which includes latin and South America and Canada...right now it is sitting at around 910k boxes.

lol...the title on the top says USA pre-order number hahaha. USA includes south america? /facepalm. My friend you need geopraphical lesson: Here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States USA is a country like Canada. South america and north america are continents lol. USA is not a continent. 

Also TOR is not launching in South America. But then again this is MMORPG.com so i don't expect much. These boards are filled with nothing but useless topics anyway.

It was a typo on my part, sorry, but here is what it says at VGChartz...

"

Overview

Welcome to the new USA Pre-orders Article. This means the data doesn’t include Mexico, Canada, Latin America, etc. There are two games in the top 30 to be in its final week before launch: Mario Kart 7 (3DS) and Just Dance 3 (PS3).

The top five games include Star Wars: The Old Republic (PC), Mario Kart 7 (3DS), Mass Effect 3 (X360), Diablo III (PC), and Tom Clancy’s Ghost Recon: Future Soldier (X360).

The top four games have 200,000 or more pre-orders, the same as last week, and the top eight has 100,000 or more pre-orders, the same as last week. One game adds 20,000 or more, down from five last week and three add 10,000 or more, down from six last week.

I should have written USA only, and "doesn't" include Latin, South America or Canada....

there is that better....

Here is a link to where it states it at VGChartz... VGChartz Pre-Orders  916k for SW:ToR 

 

NasherUK

As wow has become quite crappy and the next expansion already looking like a fail. I think people will flock to TOR and stay there as long as Bioware keep putting out good quality content.

lokiboard

Really?  I plan on taking 4 characters to 50. I could care less about the rest of the speculation so bank on me being ingame for several months..I work 7 days a week, so this will take awhile.......Does this help?

kaibigan34

My predictions

TOR will release with about 3 million subs. I say this based on VGchartz and on an article I read in October that said they had hit 2 million preorders world wide.

They will lose 50 - 70% of the original subs due to things like people not liking the game or it wasnt what they expected. Oddly enough there are people out there who preordered it but know nothing about the game before July.

However they will also gain alot of players through word of mouth and friend of a friend. There is also the Star Wars fanbase. The majority prolly wont join up until they see its stable. I saw this with SWG early on and one reason SWG didnt keep subs. A large chunk of the SW fanbase found SWG laughable. So in the end the loss of subs will be cancelled out by the new comers.

By the time of the first expansion they should have 1 to 2 million subs. It is at this point that will be do or die for Bioware. If the expansion is great, they should keep their subs and even more will come in. If the expansion sucks they will lose a ton.

Kai

EDIT: I should add, if Bioware doesnt appease the masses on this "no grace period" thing, they prolly wont have 3 million subs at launch. More like 2 million or 2.5 million. Alot of people are cancelling preorders because of this.

Digna

If there were 916K for box sales in the USA 3 weeks ago, it's pretty much a given that there are @xs that in digital sales (at the very least) in the USA and the rest of the world. Now we're at 3 million(ish). Add on another 500K for fence sitters and random Christmas buys. I think we're at approximately 3.5 million.

 

Because of the holidays, I think we'll see 1.5 -2 million accounts actually activate over the early access through Christmas to New Year's week and the rest over the following 30 days.

 

Retention? Much more difficult to even guess. it will depend on the state of the game after the 30 days are up and what they do in that time period. For example, PvPers who join late may find that when they jump into the warzones at levels 10, 11 15 etc are getting killed by levels 30s and 40s (maybe even 50s). Thats going to turn off some, even with bolster. Also, the setting required to run the game on lower/middle end machines. If they are 'gentle' enough so that those machine still generally have 'pretty' to watch, that will keep a lot of folks who otherwise quit (lower end machines, particularly this (US) economy comprise a lot of players. $15 isn't much to pay monthly and makes for good, inexpensive fun but if that fun doesn't look at least 'nice', people won't stay) In any event, I would say that if we figure 3.5mil sales/subs to begin with and if the game adds content and makes itself playable/interesting as folks progress, I would guess 2 maybe 2.25m retention over the first 3 - 6 months.

Blackrayn

Originally posted by PukeBucket

 

---

Originally posted by Blackrayn

 I like many have watched this game (ToR) be in development for a long.... time! If you don't think they were not watching it as well you're crazy! Blizzard know's as well as anyone that, hey they (BW) have a good game! A game why maybe not as content heavy as our's (for now), but damn good for launch, could make an impact.

---

 

Of course Blizzard knows they do better than anyone, TOR reskinned 95% of WoW.

 Good call! FIrst time I've heard that one. Canceled my pre-order! Haters are the "it" crowd! I'm jumping ship, cause it's fun to hate! Hahahaha. Enjoy your hate fest on the forum's, since this is your fun!

niceguy3978

Originally posted by Zezel

Originally posted by niceguy3978

Originally posted by Zezel

Originally posted by Airwren

4th month: Blizzard announces a ftp model for wow, the world explodes

 

 

Already F2P.

What are you on?  I guess it is free to play for the first day or two that it takes to get to level 20.  If you want to play past that point you have to pony up the 100$ or so to get the full game (though it is on sale deeply discounted to 35$ for everything until the 19th of december).  

What part of F2P is hard to understand?

 

Ironic the "special" is over the day before SWTOR release, not that I care.

Well the poster prior to you stated that Blizzard announces a FTP MODEL.  Free to try to 20 is a trial not a F2P model as most people understand the term.  Otherwise every game with a free trial has a F2P model.

Ringbus

LOL! Some people were basing their predictions off the fake fanboy sales site vgchartz...

Hilarious.

 

Dahkot72

Best necro bump ever.

The plates of crow cannot be big enough for those who predicted WoW thumping especially.

Kuppa

Wonder what happened to the OP, that guy was the best TOR poster and just dissapeared. Even before things went south.

SaintPhilip

I will tell you whats sad...

I was accused of wearing a tinfoil hat, of working as a Anet shill, or being "stupid", "blind" and a "hater" a few weeks ago (Yes, that recent) for pointing out the obvious . No, it will not go F2P for a LOOONG time *rolls eyes* AND "its the most succesful MMO next to WOW and is doing GREAT .

I hardly ever even post aboput SWTOR and the Majority of my posts are about MO, Fantasy Realms Online, and General Discussion and yet STILL I was an ANET SHILL (but my post history shows I actuallty think GW2 is going to be a dissapointment to many and is overhyped and will have P2W ittems very soon after launch)

Now, some of these same people calling me a tinfoil hatter for saying TOR  would be F2P withing months and was an epic failure have changed their tune... Now its "Great move by EA" and "they should have done this from the start" and "The sub model is dead and this was a natural move"- They now have changed their whole stance and embraced the Failure and are trying to spin it as a success.

The game is not an MMO. Its a single player story Xbawx game. The game IMO is pretty poor (actually I feel it sucks-). I am glad there are people who are enjotying it but I am amazed how everything is being spun by certain people and in certain circles. 

Great Necro =P

Vaross

Dont necro threads.