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Industry analyst claims ToR already has between 1 to 1.5 million players before a single boxed game
OkhamsRazor
Member Posts: 1,047
http://massively.joystiq.com/2011/12/19/analyst-claims-swtor-could-already-have-1-5-million-players/
If true this is pretty impressive
Given the ques outside of many gaming outlets today for the game and huge numbers of players don't pre-order games this could easily double over the holiday period alone . Que for someone to say it'll drop sharply in month two or it'll be free to play by then end of next year when its obvious to anyone with any sense both are extremly unlikly to happen .
It does look that this game really could break records set by WoW for sales of a new MMO seven years ago .
Comments
Ur link, it is borked.
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
I give TOR 2 years before it is F2P. All Theme Park games have the same problem, end game. Once you reach max level how much is there to do? Raid or PVP and sometimes group PvE content.
I have not played TOR and I do not plan on playing as I am sick and tired of Theme park games, they are just not fun for me at all. Enjoy the new favor of the month and I do hope I am wrong but 2 years and TOR is a F2P game.
Sooner or Later
Im not surprised by those numbers at all. And i wouldnt be surprised also if the number keeps going up untill middle January. I do think we will get a definitive word on the impact SWTOR has in this genre industry when the time to pay for the 1st couple of months arrives.
The launching of Diablo 3 and the early or late launch of GW2 will also impact not only SWTOR but all current mmos.
I believe that the path of this industry and the way developers look at mmo games will be defined by the combinations of these 3 games, upcoming and still undisclosed factors, and all of it in the year 2012.
TY
Yeah it's not surprising. Bioware games normally sell around 1.5 million units in the US, and this game will attract players from the MMORPG market that aren't SPRPG players as well. I wouldn't be surprised if SWTOR sells 3-4 million units in the US in its lifetime.
But I think it's basically going to be like a shooting star. I'm enjoying it, but it has no real long-term appeal for me. I think in a year it will just be a memory for most folks.
Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?
Are you really trying to make a big deal out of some analyst speculating TOR will have average sales figures?
It used to be that digital sales compromised only a small portion off pre-order sales. It is only in the last year or two that the number has jumped above 50%. I would not be shocked to see 65-75% of pre-rders being digital. They are likely on a pace for over 2 million box sales the forst month maybe 3 million. WHich is an amazing achievement. But how many of these people can they keep? 200k? 500k? More?
A lot depends on the endgame or how many people want to play alts etc . I would think the retention rate will be pretty high and be in the millions rather than the hundreds of thousands . I've only seen success on this scale with one other game and that was seven years ago .
Ever since digital sales became common, I can't buy an actual box. I somehow have a hang up with boxed games.
I self identify as a monkey.
Average?
Which other MMO has ever opened to these kinds of sales numbers? I'll tell you. None.
WoW had maybe 250k on launch, Aion managed 400k. Rift never hit a million, though they've still never given us any solid numbers.
You don't have to like the game, but at least be realistic when talking about it.
Pretty sure quotes like "we are approaching our millionith copy sold" indicates Rift did pretty good.
Let's talk about sub numbers next month, boys, Until sub numbers get published (wait, that won't be until at least Feb?) you're arguing over guesses.
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
swtor will see a decline within 2 or 3 months, modern mmo's just have no staying power anymore. they are aimed at a different audience to what they originally were.
You can't compare this opening with WoWs. WoW released when 99.9% of the world didn't know what an MMO was.
Like it or not, WoW brought MMOs to the mainstream, and SWTOR is doing well because of that.
True, however those quotes came looooooong after launch.
Prior to that, they talked about 1 million forum accounts created, trying to make people believe they had 1 million pre-orders.
With 99 Full servers with long queues at release I think its a pretty fair bet Rift sold over a million the first week. Each server becomes full at 3500 players before going to queue. Unless you believe more than 35% of box sales were logged in at once they sold well over a million. But besides that your other numbers are accurate. Additionally AoC sold 700k, Warhammer a bit more. But you are right SWTOR's numbers are amazing.
Do you think they'll actually publish sub numbers? So few companies ever really do, look at Rift, I don't think Trion ever published their sub numbers, at least not with any sort of regularlity.
Even Blizzard tends to shout about them when they're on an uptick, and once the doldrums hit they go pretty quiet until their next big release or announcement.
"True friends stab you in the front." | Oscar Wilde
"I need to finish" - Christian Wolff: The Accountant
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
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I think in a year it's still going to have over 1 million players easily. So I think you're wrong.
I give it max 1 year and it go f2p becouse all are sick and tired watching dialogue all the time, and move to another game where they can actually play hehe.
Hope to build full AMD system RYZEN/VEGA/AM4!!!
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OS:Windows 10 64bit
Time will tell
!
Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?
MMOMaverick has the prediction thread, so we will be able to rub our predictions into eachothers faces, dont worry.
Sadly this means nothing, well see real numbers when we see how many stay when it comes time to pay, which from what I been hearing is not going to be too high of a number compared to how many are playing free atm. We'll have to see when it comes time to pay after their free month.
Being a pessimist is a win-win pattern of thinking. If you're a pessimist (I'll admit that I am!) you're either:
A. Proven right (if something bad happens)
or
B. Pleasantly surprised (if something good happens)
Either way, you can't lose! Try it out sometime!
I love all the comments about how crappy end game is on this game that has not even launched yet? Kind of early to judge the end game when maybe 20 to 50 people total are max level across all servers.
I am shooting at about 50% retention rate, a normal amount for a polished and finished game
So I believe that until february they will sell about 2 mill units, they might end up with 1 mill subs, which is a healthy number nonetheless.
I have yet still to play the game, but damn, Im so bored with nowaday selection of mmos that any entry would be welcome, SW:TOR or GW2
"It has potential"
-Second most used phrase on existence
"It sucks"
-Most used phrase on existence
Yeah those are pretty average for a high profile game these days, even SWG had high sales figures back in its day.
I mean comparing a Star Wars game to two niche at best games is kinda daft, Lego Starwars has probs sold better than most MMOs. Hardly means anything other than Starwars is a popular franchise.