While I'm sure that Guild Wars 2 will sell a lot of copies, I very much doubt Blizzard is worried at all about GW 2 coming out first or even at the same time as Diablo 3. Blizzard has a MUCH bigger fan base than ArenaNet does.
With that said, I will definitely be buying both! They both look awesome.
i dont think the two will be competing simply because D3 is an outdated concept that would have done well years back. they'll probably sell a mill copies or so. on the other hand, GW2 is next gen, it will be the next WoW, if not bigger.
ANET doesn't want it to be the next WoW they just want to make a great game.
exactly. it's a game for a broad niche of people. it may have a few hundred thousand players, but not much more than that. also, blizzard has no reason to worry about anyone taking much of a bite out of their business. right now all they care about is stopping WoW's age from showing. if WoW looses 100k subs when GW2 releases, it will be because WoW is ageing, not because people are going to GW2. why? because the people who play WoW and the people who will play GW2 are, for the most part, different demographics. GW2 is no WoW killer simply because GW2 is not targeting the same people WoW appeals to.
and just so you know, before i become a "troll" or "hater," i will be preordering GW2 and my first char will be a norn or charr warrior. or maybe a norn ele. maybe a thief. or a mesmer. or... every combo available? maybe that.
While I'm sure that Guild Wars 2 will sell a lot of copies, I very much doubt Blizzard is worried at all about GW 2 coming out first or even at the same time as Diablo 3. Blizzard has a MUCH bigger fan base than ArenaNet does.
With that said, I will definitely be buying both! They both look awesome.
i dont think the two will be competing simply because D3 is an outdated concept that would have done well years back. they'll probably sell a mill copies or so. on the other hand, GW2 is next gen, it will be the next WoW, if not bigger.
ANET doesn't want it to be the next WoW they just want to make a great game.
exactly. it's a game for a broad niche of people. it may have a few hundred thousand players, but not much more than that. also, blizzard has no reason to worry about anyone stepping on their toes. right now all they care about is stopping WoW's age from showing. if WoW looses 100k subs when GW2 releases, it will be because WoW is ageing, not because people are going to GW2. why? because the people who play WoW and the people who will play GW2 are, for the most part, different demographics. GW2 is no WoW killer simply because GW2 is not targeting the same people WoW appeals to.
and before i become a "troll" or "hater" just so you know i will be preordering GW2 and my first char will be a norn or charr warrior. or maybe a norn ele. maybe a thief. or a mesmer. or... every combo available? maybe that.
Exactly.
This guy is God.
I might get banned for this. - Rizel Star.
I'm not afraid to tell trolls what they [need] to hear, even if that means for me to have an forced absence afterwards.
P2P LOGIC = If it's P2P it means longevity, overall better game, and THE BEST SUPPORT EVER!!!!!(Which has been rinsed and repeated about a thousand times)
Common Sense Logic = P2P logic is no better than F2P Logic.
While I'm sure that Guild Wars 2 will sell a lot of copies, I very much doubt Blizzard is worried at all about GW 2 coming out first or even at the same time as Diablo 3. Blizzard has a MUCH bigger fan base than ArenaNet does.
With that said, I will definitely be buying both! They both look awesome.
i dont think the two will be competing simply because D3 is an outdated concept that would have done well years back. they'll probably sell a mill copies or so. on the other hand, GW2 is next gen, it will be the next WoW, if not bigger.
ANET doesn't want it to be the next WoW they just want to make a great game.
exactly. it's a game for a broad niche of people. it may have a few hundred thousand players, but not much more than that. also, blizzard has no reason to worry about anyone taking much of a bite out of their business. right now all they care about is stopping WoW's age from showing. if WoW looses 100k subs when GW2 releases, it will be because WoW is ageing, not because people are going to GW2. why? because the people who play WoW and the people who will play GW2 are, for the most part, different demographics. GW2 is no WoW killer simply because GW2 is not targeting the same people WoW appeals to.
and just so you know, before i become a "troll" or "hater," i will be preordering GW2 and my first char will be a norn or charr warrior. or maybe a norn ele. maybe a thief. or a mesmer. or... every combo available? maybe that.
EDIT for miscellaneous stuff
I tihnk you're underselling GW2 a bit. Obviously, no one will know how popular it's going to be until it releases, but I think a few hundred thousand is kind of a low-ball. I mean, GW1 sold over 6 million copies. I'm not saying all of those people are going to buy it, but the franchise has a solid fan-base. Not to mention al of the poeple like me that didn't play the first one who are going to get it. On top of that, the MMO community, as a whole, is ready for a change now. WoW's numbers have dropped exponenitally in the last year, and Blizzard is responding to this with MoP. No, I'm not referring to that fact that many people thought it was a joke, but the fact that they are changing up the game quite a bit. A new class that can fulfil multiple roles and can choose either faction, dynamic events, and a revamped art direction. The genre is evolving, and I don't think that GW2 will scare people off with its uniqueness, but rather entice them.
They'll both be released when they're ready, independing of when the other is. It's terminally stupid to sit on a game that is ready for launch. And neither ArenaNet nor Blizzard believes in releasing badly broken games that are nowhere near ready for launch.
I have to disagree with the sentiment that they will not affect each other at all. They might not if they realeased at different times... but if they release at the same time they definatly will.
It may not be a massive correlation but there will be one there.
I know that I wouldn't mind playing D3 just to play through the story but if GW2 was released at the same time it would definatly be a "bye bye D3 good luck"... I love PvP and D3 just aint gonna do it for me. So while they may not be direct rivals... a simultanious release would certainly have some effect on numbers
"Don't mistake a fun game for a good game... Checkers is fun to play but its not exactly the highest point of gaming design... and definatly not worth $60 plus $15 a month"
I tihnk you're underselling GW2 a bit. Obviously, no one will know how popular it's going to be until it releases, but I think a few hundred thousand is kind of a low-ball. I mean, GW1 sold over 6 million copies. I'm not saying all of those people are going to buy it, but the franchise has a solid fan-base. Not to mention al of the poeple like me that didn't play the first one who are going to get it. On top of that, the MMO community, as a whole, is ready for a change now. WoW's numbers have dropped exponenitally in the last year, and Blizzard is responding to this with MoP. No, I'm not referring to that fact that many people thought it was a joke, but the fact that they are changing up the game quite a bit. A new class that can fulfil multiple roles and can choose either faction, dynamic events, and a revamped art direction. The genre is evolving, and I don't think that GW2 will scare people off with its uniqueness, but rather entice them.
perhaps, but people these days seem to jaded and wary. i absolutely agree that people are going to be drawn to GW2 because of what it promises to change, but i also believe that it is promoting itself to a smaller group of players than most other big MMOs. all the other big budget, big name MMOs that have come out in the almost-decade since WoW came out have operated under the belief that they can be just as big and money making as it has been. obviously this hasn't panned out quite right for them, but they have all managed to pull together a decent fanbase and a decent profit. GW2 on the other hand is aiming for those people who aren't interested in what other big MMOs have been selling. GW2 is going to draw in a whole bunch of those players. i would say it's a safe bet that most of their fanbase is/will be made up of them. GW2 will also draw in a handful of players from this other source or that, but mostly i believe that their fanbase is going to be the (currently) MMOless and discontent.
we also have, as you mentioned, the current fans of GW1. however, just because they liked GW1 does not mean they will like GW2. they are radically different games both in style of play and content. moreover, that 6M copies sold does not mean that there are 6M happy GW players or even fans. millions of those people no longer play GW1. a whole boatload more didn't like it too much. and even if they did all somehow like it, just because an IP has millions of fans, doesn't mean that they are going to come flocking to it. just look at SWtOR. sure they're pushing 1.7M players, but that, even with the might of SW behind it, is a figure that greatly exceeds the internal predictions of bioware and lucas arts.
so, if a behemoth like SW can mobilize 1.7M players and be going A and B the C of D, what does that say for GW2? it says that a relativley small number of people are going to mobilize for it when it launches. if i was to play pundit (gods preserve me for even daring to conceive of such a horror) i would say that GW2 is looking at a maybe 400k-600k player start, through in a little dip of ~100k for people who don't think the sun shines out of its nethers, throw in a little more for people who waited for the reviews (another ~100-200k?), and what do we get? about 500k-700k. ish. (and keep in mind that's just for the first few months of play mind you. if you add time to that mix... buggered if i know where it'll go, but it certainly won't go to the throne that WoW's currently warming.) heavy on the ish. so okay. maybe "a few hundred thousand players" was a bit misleading, but honestly, i think it is better to shoot a little low and have your hopes exceeded than to aim high and fail.
i sincerely hope someone read that because i should be doing work.
EDIT: wow that's long. let's trim some of those quotes.
I'd speculate to say it would throw down a cool mil upon launch. As for how many of those actually retain, is hard to say. You have the Aion crowd ready and mobilized, and by this time maybe people are sick of Swtor, and just maybe some of those OwO people have upgraded their toaster rigs and are ready for a next gen mmo.
perhaps, but people these days seem to jaded and wary. i absolutely agree that people are going to be drawn to GW2 because of what it promises to change, but i also believe that it is promoting itself to a smaller group of players than most other big MMOs. all the other big budget, big name MMOs that have come out in the almost-decade since WoW came out have operated under the belief that they can be just as big and money making as it has been. obviously this hasn't panned out quite right for them, but they have all managed to pull together a decent fanbase and a decent profit. GW2 on the other hand is aiming for those people who aren't interested in what other big MMOs have been selling. GW2 is going to draw in a whole bunch of those players. i would say it's a safe bet that most of their fanbase is/will be made up of them. GW2 will also draw in a handful of players from this other source or that, but mostly i believe that their fanbase is going to be the (currently) MMOless and discontent.
we also have, as you mentioned, the current fans of GW1. however, just because they liked GW1 does not mean they will like GW2. they are radically different games both in style of play and content. moreover, that 6M copies sold does not mean that there are 6M happy GW players or even fans. millions of those people no longer play GW1. a whole boatload more didn't like it too much. and even if they did all somehow like it, just because an IP has millions of fans, doesn't mean that they are going to come flocking to it. just look at SWtOR. sure they're pushing 1.7M players, but that, even with the might of SW behind it, is a figure that greatly exceeds the internal predictions of bioware and lucas arts.
so, if a behemoth like SW can mobilize 1.7M players and be going A and B the C of D, what does that say for GW2? it says that a relativley small number of people are going to mobilize for it when it launches. if i was to play pundit (gods preserve me for even daring to conceive of such a horror) i would say that GW2 is looking at a maybe 400k-600k player start, through in a little dip of ~100k for people who don't think the sun shines out of its nethers, throw in a little more for people who waited for the reviews (another ~100-200k?), and what do we get? about 500k-700k. ish. (and keep in mind that's just for the first few months of play mind you. if you add time to that mix... buggered if i know where it'll go, but it certainly won't go to the throne that WoW's currently warming.) heavy on the ish. so okay. maybe "a few hundred thousand players" was a bit misleading, but honestly, i think it is better to shoot a little low and have your hopes exceeded than to aim high and fail.
i sincerely hope someone read that because i should be doing work.
EDIT: wow that's long. let's trim some of those quotes.
Don't worry. I read it :-P
Yeah, I wasn't really considering a timeline based on your initial quote, and that's a pretty important factor. It's hard to say. I think the fact that it doesn't have a sub really suggests that it's not going for straight competition with the big boys. Even in one of the devleoper interviews, he mentioned that they don't intend on having it replace other games. There's really no reason why some can't just pick up this game and play it whenever, and still retain their current MMO subscription. I think that fact will help them out some. Though, I don't know too many people that take on simultaneous MMOs.
I wasn't implying that it will sell millions becuase GW1 did; I was just mentioning that it is an established IP with a solid fan-base. That can only help it, right? Who really knows how it's going to do, but I hope it does well. It's always nice to see new ideas prosper. If it fails, then that just tells the publishers that the genre isn't ready for a change, and we can all prepare for WoW clones galore... again.
I have to disagree with the sentiment that they will not affect each other at all. They might not if they realeased at different times... but if they release at the same time they definatly will.
It may not be a massive correlation but there will be one there.
I know that I wouldn't mind playing D3 just to play through the story but if GW2 was released at the same time it would definatly be a "bye bye D3 good luck"... I love PvP and D3 just aint gonna do it for me. So while they may not be direct rivals... a simultanious release would certainly have some effect on numbers
I agree. With the frequency that Blizzard releases games, there no way they're going to take any chances. I had the same discussion with a friend last year about the release of D3 and Skyrim. He thought that they were going to release around that same time, and I said no way. Blizzard isn't that stupid. Obviously, D3 and GW2 are different games with different features, but they are both highly anticipated and similar genres, and a close release would definitely affect initial sales, if not not long term sales.
I think GW2 has very broad appeal, with the exception of people who don't want more active combat and the hardcore raiders. I actually think it's going to be the most casual friendly MMO ever. Even if you've only got 10-15 minutes, you can teleport anywhere in the world lower level than you, and do any DE that's running. You even get to effortlessly play with other people. I think ArenaNet's desire to innovate comes from seeing ways they can fix problems in the genre and make a better game, not to specifically reach out to only those who aren't happy with traditional MMOs.
Being B2P, GW2 doesn't have to go head to head with WoW. Anybody who wants any kind of side game can just pick it up if they have $60. GW1 sold 1 million copies of the core game in the five months, largely because it was B2P. It was not AAA, not an MMO, had no IP and was a no name company releasing 4 months after WoW. Every aspect of that is more positive now than it was then.
Still, I do agree with you in terms of initial sales. GW2 doesn't have the recognition it would need to generate 2 million preorders. It's still only got 260k likes on Facebook (compared to 1.6 million for SWTOR). But I do think it's going to go way up as word of mouth spreads. In addition to the innovation and the stated "massive" amount of content, I think every indication is that ArenaNet actually gives a shit. As one of their blog posts says, it's about quality assurance, not functional assurance.
I could be wrong, the game could still turn out to suck, in which case it'll be like every other game that lost half its population in 6 months. But I do believe it will be the next very big deal in the MMO genre.
"Gamers will no longer buy the argument that every MMO requires a subscription fee to offset server and bandwidth costs. It's not true you know it, and they know it."-Jeff Strain, co-founder of ArenaNet, 2007
While I'm sure that Guild Wars 2 will sell a lot of copies, I very much doubt Blizzard is worried at all about GW 2 coming out first or even at the same time as Diablo 3. Blizzard has a MUCH bigger fan base than ArenaNet does.
With that said, I will definitely be buying both! They both look awesome.
i dont think the two will be competing simply because D3 is an outdated concept that would have done well years back. they'll probably sell a mill copies or so. on the other hand, GW2 is next gen, it will be the next WoW, if not bigger.
ANET doesn't want it to be the next WoW they just want to make a great game.
exactly. it's a game for a broad niche of people. it may have a few hundred thousand players, but not much more than that. also, blizzard has no reason to worry about anyone stepping on their toes. right now all they care about is stopping WoW's age from showing. if WoW looses 100k subs when GW2 releases, it will be because WoW is ageing, not because people are going to GW2. why? because the people who play WoW and the people who will play GW2 are, for the most part, different demographics. GW2 is no WoW killer simply because GW2 is not targeting the same people WoW appeals to.
and before i become a "troll" or "hater" just so you know i will be preordering GW2 and my first char will be a norn or charr warrior. or maybe a norn ele. maybe a thief. or a mesmer. or... every combo available? maybe that.
Exactly.
This guy is God.
GW2's success will be measured in millions of players. it's the next WoW in that sense, because it has such huge appeal. GW2 isnt niche at all, not sure what youre talking about. i was right about TOR 2 years ago, and i think i got this one covered as well
I mostly likely will buy Diablo 3, but on the fence about gw2, I am worried how much they going to nickle and dime the playerbase now that they know they can get away with it. We won't know till its been out for a bit.
Being a pessimist is a win-win pattern of thinking. If you're a pessimist (I'll admit that I am!) you're either:
A. Proven right (if something bad happens)
or
B. Pleasantly surprised (if something good happens)
GW2's success will be measured in millions of players. it's the next WoW in that sense, because it has such huge appeal. GW2 isnt niche at all, not sure what youre talking about. i was right about TOR 2 years ago, and i think i got this one covered as well
okay. no need for condescension. we're all just making guesses here. no one has a crystal ball, and no one has any idea what's going to happen. however, i would recommend putting away some of your enthusiasm for a minute, and think about how much broad appeal GW2 actually has. SWtOR couldn't possibly sell itself any more to as many people as it could, and it still has only just begun to approach 2 million people. this exceeded the expectations of bioware/ea analysts. again: TOR is a massive budget game, aimed to bring in as many people as possible, and it hasn't even broken 2 million players. so, without any optimism or pessimism, do you honestly believe that a game marketed specifically, and without any illsuions to the ontrary, to a broad niche of people dissatisfied with current MMOs can beat out TOR? unlikely. possible sure, but very unlikely. sure GW2 will sell millions of copies over the course of the next couple of years, but do you think that they'll all be playing at the same time? and do you really think that GW2 will have a 100% retention rate? no. not even possible.
Somebody would wait for GW2 and somebody would wait for diablo 3. I dont see where is a problem? There is more than enough room for both games and there is planty of people who will get both of them. I know I will.
I just don't think Anet cares when D3 hits. Not only are they 2 totally different types of games but I believe GW2 actually offers most of what people would want out of a game like D3 already and then some. Then again, I'm pretty biased.
I loved D2 and played the heck out of it but that type of gameplay today seems kind of primitive, almost detached altogether. Maybe it has something to do with constantly clicking the mouse and the camera angle being so far away, I just can't be as entertained with such a simple game. It would be a decent time waster, but that is what Torchlight 2 is for and its only 20 bucks.
TL:DR: Anet couldn't care less since they are offering an entirely different experience than D3. And Blizz couldn't care less because their IP is a cash machine regardless.
GW2's success will be measured in millions of players. it's the next WoW in that sense, because it has such huge appeal. GW2 isnt niche at all, not sure what youre talking about. i was right about TOR 2 years ago, and i think i got this one covered as well
okay. no need for condescension. we're all just making guesses here. no one has a crystal ball, and no one has any idea what's going to happen. however, i would recommend putting away some of your enthusiasm for a minute, and think about how much broad appeal GW2 actually has. SWtOR couldn't possibly sell itself any more to as many people as it could, and it still has only just begun to approach 2 million people. this exceeded the expectations of bioware/ea analysts. again: TOR is a massive budget game, aimed to bring in as many people as possible, and it hasn't even broken 2 million players. so, without any optimism or pessimism, do you honestly believe that a game marketed specifically, and without any illsuions to the ontrary, to a broad niche of people dissatisfied with current MMOs can beat out TOR? unlikely. possible sure, but very unlikely. sure GW2 will sell millions of copies over the course of the next couple of years, but do you think that they'll all be playing at the same time? and do you really think that GW2 will have a 100% retention rate? no. not even possible.
Umm I guess my sarcasm wasn't clear enough.
Umm only God knows and if you don't believe in God then believe in time.
Honstley as a fan of the game I am not having high expectations on retention and the sales.
Though far as it being a great game/mmorpg, I'm sure it will be. Even that's subjective and only based off my experience playing it so I could be wrong if itsn't a successful game.
Themepark MMOs [were] not for me and plain themepark MMO's will never be for me.
Apparently hybrids(Themeparks with some sandbox elements in it) are.
By the way if y'all want to be literal WoW didn't start off selling millions, yet it progressed as it convinced and proved [then].
Trick is to prove now.
Money can't buy happyness...
So TL DR all those single lines
atticus has the most realistic mindset however for either to claim their points as facts would have to be God, back from the future, or time him/herself.
So in the end wait.
I might get banned for this. - Rizel Star.
I'm not afraid to tell trolls what they [need] to hear, even if that means for me to have an forced absence afterwards.
P2P LOGIC = If it's P2P it means longevity, overall better game, and THE BEST SUPPORT EVER!!!!!(Which has been rinsed and repeated about a thousand times)
Common Sense Logic = P2P logic is no better than F2P Logic.
And again, D3 is being compared to MMORPG's for what reason? I'm not even interested in D3 since it's made by different people, but GW2 has nothing to fear from it since they're aimed at different markets and are completely different genres. I hate threads like this.
And again, D3 is being compared to MMORPG's for what reason? I'm not even interested in D3 since it's made by different people, but GW2 has nothing to fear from it since they're aimed at different markets and are completely different genres. I hate threads like this.
Hate seems like a strong word for a thread. It seems valid to me, because the similarities of these games can be debated. Sure, there are a lot of differences, but I think they have enough in common to at least warrant a discussion. They're both online RPGs. I'm sure they have a large crossover crowd. In fact, I've seen several articles/forums where both games are mentioned, and there are always comments from people that are buying both. I would put money on separated releases. I doubt that ArenaNet will wait, but I bet Blizzard would. Think about it: how often do they release games? I guarentee that they are going to wait for the right climate to set free their baby. Less competition = more money = happy Blizzard.
I can only speak for myself as an example of how they will affect each others number.
I would have bought D3 if GW2 wasn't coming out. However, I know I only have time for one, and D3 doesn't really have appealing PvP which is important to me.
So because of the launch of GW2 blizzard will miss out on the money I was willing to spend.
Im sure Im not the only one that feels this way. Alot of people will buy both but im not the type of person to buy a game when I know i'll rarely, if ever, play it.
Its the same reason I didn't buy reckoning... cause Im playing other games that I know I enjoy more and I dont have enough time to devote to the game for it to be worth the price
"Don't mistake a fun game for a good game... Checkers is fun to play but its not exactly the highest point of gaming design... and definatly not worth $60 plus $15 a month"
GW2's success will be measured in millions of players. it's the next WoW in that sense, because it has such huge appeal. GW2 isnt niche at all, not sure what youre talking about. i was right about TOR 2 years ago, and i think i got this one covered as well
okay. no need for condescension. we're all just making guesses here. no one has a crystal ball, and no one has any idea what's going to happen. however, i would recommend putting away some of your enthusiasm for a minute, and think about how much broad appeal GW2 actually has. SWtOR couldn't possibly sell itself any more to as many people as it could, and it still has only just begun to approach 2 million people. this exceeded the expectations of bioware/ea analysts. again: TOR is a massive budget game, aimed to bring in as many people as possible, and it hasn't even broken 2 million players. so, without any optimism or pessimism, do you honestly believe that a game marketed specifically, and without any illsuions to the ontrary, to a broad niche of people dissatisfied with current MMOs can beat out TOR? unlikely. possible sure, but very unlikely. sure GW2 will sell millions of copies over the course of the next couple of years, but do you think that they'll all be playing at the same time? and do you really think that GW2 will have a 100% retention rate? no. not even possible.
It's extremely clear to me that GW2 is aiming for very broad appeal and not just a niche market. Look at this quote from one of ArenaNet's cofounders.
“We can make the highest quality MMO ever released. We can be the number one MMO in the world. We don’t have to settle. And we’re not going to release this until it’s done.”
(Not as catchy as "We're not in Azeroth anymore" but still a pretty bold statement of intention)
What it comes down to is that there's two aspects here, short term and long term. SWTOR exceeded expectations in the short term, but that's based on hype, IP and marketing. Success in the long term depends on word of mouth which depends on the game. I'm sure SWTOR will do quite well and be very profitable, but its subscribers are almost certainly going to go down, not up.
GW2 will not enjoy massive short term success, it's just not well known enough. But sonoggi and I definitely see this game taking off in the long term. It's B2P so people are still going to stay longer than P2P (no financial incentive to stop playing). It's going to be extremely polished and not rushed out the door for Christmas. Its courting the Asian market (where half WoW's subs are) with a demo specifically tailored to a Korean convention. It's extremely innovative in a market marked by stagnation for the past 7 years. It's said to be as large as GW1 and all 3 expansions put together.
There's a lot of exciting looking games coming out, but this one I believe is the most complete package.
"Gamers will no longer buy the argument that every MMO requires a subscription fee to offset server and bandwidth costs. It's not true you know it, and they know it."-Jeff Strain, co-founder of ArenaNet, 2007
Comments
exactly. it's a game for a broad niche of people. it may have a few hundred thousand players, but not much more than that. also, blizzard has no reason to worry about anyone taking much of a bite out of their business. right now all they care about is stopping WoW's age from showing. if WoW looses 100k subs when GW2 releases, it will be because WoW is ageing, not because people are going to GW2. why? because the people who play WoW and the people who will play GW2 are, for the most part, different demographics. GW2 is no WoW killer simply because GW2 is not targeting the same people WoW appeals to.
and just so you know, before i become a "troll" or "hater," i will be preordering GW2 and my first char will be a norn or charr warrior. or maybe a norn ele. maybe a thief. or a mesmer. or... every combo available? maybe that.
EDIT for miscellaneous stuff
Exactly.
This guy is God.
I might get banned for this. - Rizel Star.
I'm not afraid to tell trolls what they [need] to hear, even if that means for me to have an forced absence afterwards.
P2P LOGIC = If it's P2P it means longevity, overall better game, and THE BEST SUPPORT EVER!!!!!(Which has been rinsed and repeated about a thousand times)
Common Sense Logic = P2P logic is no better than F2P Logic.
I tihnk you're underselling GW2 a bit. Obviously, no one will know how popular it's going to be until it releases, but I think a few hundred thousand is kind of a low-ball. I mean, GW1 sold over 6 million copies. I'm not saying all of those people are going to buy it, but the franchise has a solid fan-base. Not to mention al of the poeple like me that didn't play the first one who are going to get it. On top of that, the MMO community, as a whole, is ready for a change now. WoW's numbers have dropped exponenitally in the last year, and Blizzard is responding to this with MoP. No, I'm not referring to that fact that many people thought it was a joke, but the fact that they are changing up the game quite a bit. A new class that can fulfil multiple roles and can choose either faction, dynamic events, and a revamped art direction. The genre is evolving, and I don't think that GW2 will scare people off with its uniqueness, but rather entice them.
They'll both be released when they're ready, independing of when the other is. It's terminally stupid to sit on a game that is ready for launch. And neither ArenaNet nor Blizzard believes in releasing badly broken games that are nowhere near ready for launch.
I have to disagree with the sentiment that they will not affect each other at all. They might not if they realeased at different times... but if they release at the same time they definatly will.
It may not be a massive correlation but there will be one there.
I know that I wouldn't mind playing D3 just to play through the story but if GW2 was released at the same time it would definatly be a "bye bye D3 good luck"... I love PvP and D3 just aint gonna do it for me. So while they may not be direct rivals... a simultanious release would certainly have some effect on numbers
"Don't mistake a fun game for a good game... Checkers is fun to play but its not exactly the highest point of gaming design... and definatly not worth $60 plus $15 a month"
perhaps, but people these days seem to jaded and wary. i absolutely agree that people are going to be drawn to GW2 because of what it promises to change, but i also believe that it is promoting itself to a smaller group of players than most other big MMOs. all the other big budget, big name MMOs that have come out in the almost-decade since WoW came out have operated under the belief that they can be just as big and money making as it has been. obviously this hasn't panned out quite right for them, but they have all managed to pull together a decent fanbase and a decent profit. GW2 on the other hand is aiming for those people who aren't interested in what other big MMOs have been selling. GW2 is going to draw in a whole bunch of those players. i would say it's a safe bet that most of their fanbase is/will be made up of them. GW2 will also draw in a handful of players from this other source or that, but mostly i believe that their fanbase is going to be the (currently) MMOless and discontent.
we also have, as you mentioned, the current fans of GW1. however, just because they liked GW1 does not mean they will like GW2. they are radically different games both in style of play and content. moreover, that 6M copies sold does not mean that there are 6M happy GW players or even fans. millions of those people no longer play GW1. a whole boatload more didn't like it too much. and even if they did all somehow like it, just because an IP has millions of fans, doesn't mean that they are going to come flocking to it. just look at SWtOR. sure they're pushing 1.7M players, but that, even with the might of SW behind it, is a figure that greatly exceeds the internal predictions of bioware and lucas arts.
so, if a behemoth like SW can mobilize 1.7M players and be going A and B the C of D, what does that say for GW2? it says that a relativley small number of people are going to mobilize for it when it launches. if i was to play pundit (gods preserve me for even daring to conceive of such a horror) i would say that GW2 is looking at a maybe 400k-600k player start, through in a little dip of ~100k for people who don't think the sun shines out of its nethers, throw in a little more for people who waited for the reviews (another ~100-200k?), and what do we get? about 500k-700k. ish. (and keep in mind that's just for the first few months of play mind you. if you add time to that mix... buggered if i know where it'll go, but it certainly won't go to the throne that WoW's currently warming.) heavy on the ish. so okay. maybe "a few hundred thousand players" was a bit misleading, but honestly, i think it is better to shoot a little low and have your hopes exceeded than to aim high and fail.
i sincerely hope someone read that because i should be doing work.
EDIT: wow that's long. let's trim some of those quotes.
I'd speculate to say it would throw down a cool mil upon launch. As for how many of those actually retain, is hard to say. You have the Aion crowd ready and mobilized, and by this time maybe people are sick of Swtor, and just maybe some of those OwO people have upgraded their toaster rigs and are ready for a next gen mmo.
Don't worry. I read it :-P
Yeah, I wasn't really considering a timeline based on your initial quote, and that's a pretty important factor. It's hard to say. I think the fact that it doesn't have a sub really suggests that it's not going for straight competition with the big boys. Even in one of the devleoper interviews, he mentioned that they don't intend on having it replace other games. There's really no reason why some can't just pick up this game and play it whenever, and still retain their current MMO subscription. I think that fact will help them out some. Though, I don't know too many people that take on simultaneous MMOs.
I wasn't implying that it will sell millions becuase GW1 did; I was just mentioning that it is an established IP with a solid fan-base. That can only help it, right? Who really knows how it's going to do, but I hope it does well. It's always nice to see new ideas prosper. If it fails, then that just tells the publishers that the genre isn't ready for a change, and we can all prepare for WoW clones galore... again.
I agree. With the frequency that Blizzard releases games, there no way they're going to take any chances. I had the same discussion with a friend last year about the release of D3 and Skyrim. He thought that they were going to release around that same time, and I said no way. Blizzard isn't that stupid. Obviously, D3 and GW2 are different games with different features, but they are both highly anticipated and similar genres, and a close release would definitely affect initial sales, if not not long term sales.
@atticusbc
I think GW2 has very broad appeal, with the exception of people who don't want more active combat and the hardcore raiders. I actually think it's going to be the most casual friendly MMO ever. Even if you've only got 10-15 minutes, you can teleport anywhere in the world lower level than you, and do any DE that's running. You even get to effortlessly play with other people. I think ArenaNet's desire to innovate comes from seeing ways they can fix problems in the genre and make a better game, not to specifically reach out to only those who aren't happy with traditional MMOs.
Being B2P, GW2 doesn't have to go head to head with WoW. Anybody who wants any kind of side game can just pick it up if they have $60. GW1 sold 1 million copies of the core game in the five months, largely because it was B2P. It was not AAA, not an MMO, had no IP and was a no name company releasing 4 months after WoW. Every aspect of that is more positive now than it was then.
Still, I do agree with you in terms of initial sales. GW2 doesn't have the recognition it would need to generate 2 million preorders. It's still only got 260k likes on Facebook (compared to 1.6 million for SWTOR). But I do think it's going to go way up as word of mouth spreads. In addition to the innovation and the stated "massive" amount of content, I think every indication is that ArenaNet actually gives a shit. As one of their blog posts says, it's about quality assurance, not functional assurance.
I could be wrong, the game could still turn out to suck, in which case it'll be like every other game that lost half its population in 6 months. But I do believe it will be the next very big deal in the MMO genre.
"Gamers will no longer buy the argument that every MMO requires a subscription fee to offset server and bandwidth costs. It's not true you know it, and they know it." -Jeff Strain, co-founder of ArenaNet, 2007
GW2's success will be measured in millions of players. it's the next WoW in that sense, because it has such huge appeal. GW2 isnt niche at all, not sure what youre talking about. i was right about TOR 2 years ago, and i think i got this one covered as well
I dont agree GW2 does not care when anything gets released, they will release this game ASAP once they feel it is ready.
More like D3 playing chicken with TL2. TL2 will have modding, lan play and best of all no real money auction house.
Grim Dawn, the next great action rpg!
http://www.grimdawn.com/
This made me laugh because it's true :].
Played - M59, EQOA, EQ, EQ2, PS, SWG[Favorite], DAoC, UO, RS, MXO, CoH/CoV, TR, FFXI, FoM, WoW, Eve, Rift, SWTOR, TSW.
Playing - PS2, AoW, GW2
I mostly likely will buy Diablo 3, but on the fence about gw2, I am worried how much they going to nickle and dime the playerbase now that they know they can get away with it. We won't know till its been out for a bit.
Being a pessimist is a win-win pattern of thinking. If you're a pessimist (I'll admit that I am!) you're either:
A. Proven right (if something bad happens)
or
B. Pleasantly surprised (if something good happens)
Either way, you can't lose! Try it out sometime!
okay. no need for condescension. we're all just making guesses here. no one has a crystal ball, and no one has any idea what's going to happen. however, i would recommend putting away some of your enthusiasm for a minute, and think about how much broad appeal GW2 actually has. SWtOR couldn't possibly sell itself any more to as many people as it could, and it still has only just begun to approach 2 million people. this exceeded the expectations of bioware/ea analysts. again: TOR is a massive budget game, aimed to bring in as many people as possible, and it hasn't even broken 2 million players. so, without any optimism or pessimism, do you honestly believe that a game marketed specifically, and without any illsuions to the ontrary, to a broad niche of people dissatisfied with current MMOs can beat out TOR? unlikely. possible sure, but very unlikely. sure GW2 will sell millions of copies over the course of the next couple of years, but do you think that they'll all be playing at the same time? and do you really think that GW2 will have a 100% retention rate? no. not even possible.
Somebody would wait for GW2 and somebody would wait for diablo 3. I dont see where is a problem? There is more than enough room for both games and there is planty of people who will get both of them. I know I will.
I just don't think Anet cares when D3 hits. Not only are they 2 totally different types of games but I believe GW2 actually offers most of what people would want out of a game like D3 already and then some. Then again, I'm pretty biased.
I loved D2 and played the heck out of it but that type of gameplay today seems kind of primitive, almost detached altogether. Maybe it has something to do with constantly clicking the mouse and the camera angle being so far away, I just can't be as entertained with such a simple game. It would be a decent time waster, but that is what Torchlight 2 is for and its only 20 bucks.
TL:DR: Anet couldn't care less since they are offering an entirely different experience than D3. And Blizz couldn't care less because their IP is a cash machine regardless.
Umm I guess my sarcasm wasn't clear enough.
Umm only God knows and if you don't believe in God then believe in time.
Honstley as a fan of the game I am not having high expectations on retention and the sales.
Though far as it being a great game/mmorpg, I'm sure it will be. Even that's subjective and only based off my experience playing it so I could be wrong if itsn't a successful game.
Themepark MMOs [were] not for me and plain themepark MMO's will never be for me.
Apparently hybrids(Themeparks with some sandbox elements in it) are.
By the way if y'all want to be literal WoW didn't start off selling millions, yet it progressed as it convinced and proved [then].
Trick is to prove now.
Money can't buy happyness...
So TL DR all those single lines
atticus has the most realistic mindset however for either to claim their points as facts would have to be God, back from the future, or time him/herself.
So in the end wait.
I might get banned for this. - Rizel Star.
I'm not afraid to tell trolls what they [need] to hear, even if that means for me to have an forced absence afterwards.
P2P LOGIC = If it's P2P it means longevity, overall better game, and THE BEST SUPPORT EVER!!!!!(Which has been rinsed and repeated about a thousand times)
Common Sense Logic = P2P logic is no better than F2P Logic.
And again, D3 is being compared to MMORPG's for what reason? I'm not even interested in D3 since it's made by different people, but GW2 has nothing to fear from it since they're aimed at different markets and are completely different genres. I hate threads like this.
Hate seems like a strong word for a thread. It seems valid to me, because the similarities of these games can be debated. Sure, there are a lot of differences, but I think they have enough in common to at least warrant a discussion. They're both online RPGs. I'm sure they have a large crossover crowd. In fact, I've seen several articles/forums where both games are mentioned, and there are always comments from people that are buying both. I would put money on separated releases. I doubt that ArenaNet will wait, but I bet Blizzard would. Think about it: how often do they release games? I guarentee that they are going to wait for the right climate to set free their baby. Less competition = more money = happy Blizzard.
I think the thread title says it all.They are playing chickens each other.
Blizzard wants always to be the last one to release their game because they want to get more attention.
Lets wait and see.
I can only speak for myself as an example of how they will affect each others number.
I would have bought D3 if GW2 wasn't coming out. However, I know I only have time for one, and D3 doesn't really have appealing PvP which is important to me.
So because of the launch of GW2 blizzard will miss out on the money I was willing to spend.
Im sure Im not the only one that feels this way. Alot of people will buy both but im not the type of person to buy a game when I know i'll rarely, if ever, play it.
Its the same reason I didn't buy reckoning... cause Im playing other games that I know I enjoy more and I dont have enough time to devote to the game for it to be worth the price
"Don't mistake a fun game for a good game... Checkers is fun to play but its not exactly the highest point of gaming design... and definatly not worth $60 plus $15 a month"
It's extremely clear to me that GW2 is aiming for very broad appeal and not just a niche market. Look at this quote from one of ArenaNet's cofounders.
“We can make the highest quality MMO ever released. We can be the number one MMO in the world. We don’t have to settle. And we’re not going to release this until it’s done.”
(Not as catchy as "We're not in Azeroth anymore" but still a pretty bold statement of intention)
What it comes down to is that there's two aspects here, short term and long term. SWTOR exceeded expectations in the short term, but that's based on hype, IP and marketing. Success in the long term depends on word of mouth which depends on the game. I'm sure SWTOR will do quite well and be very profitable, but its subscribers are almost certainly going to go down, not up.
GW2 will not enjoy massive short term success, it's just not well known enough. But sonoggi and I definitely see this game taking off in the long term. It's B2P so people are still going to stay longer than P2P (no financial incentive to stop playing). It's going to be extremely polished and not rushed out the door for Christmas. Its courting the Asian market (where half WoW's subs are) with a demo specifically tailored to a Korean convention. It's extremely innovative in a market marked by stagnation for the past 7 years. It's said to be as large as GW1 and all 3 expansions put together.
There's a lot of exciting looking games coming out, but this one I believe is the most complete package.
"Gamers will no longer buy the argument that every MMO requires a subscription fee to offset server and bandwidth costs. It's not true you know it, and they know it." -Jeff Strain, co-founder of ArenaNet, 2007