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Sandbox MMOs - Are investors stopping the creation of an AAA sandbox?
jjjggg50
Member Posts: 11
Hi folks this is my first post on MMORPG.com, I'm an MMO veteran (I'm not an elitist jerk who hates anything with good graphics). I've been lurking around this site for years, I've finally found something worth posting about 
I found this nifty little post by an indy blogger - he basically summed up the future of Sandboxes. I'd like to hear your input! This isn't a Sandbox Vs Themepark flame thread - it is a 'speculation' thread into the future of this genre of the MMO industry. Trolls & flamers - keep out!
My best gaming past-times have always been in Sandbox MMOs, from PKing in Ultima Online to waging inter-galactic warfare in Eve Online - no virtual experience contends with the Sandbox. Eve Online is currently the only AAA sandbox, all of the other sandbox MMOs are either Korean or being developed by low-budget indie teams.
Your probably thinking; well go play Eve Online then! Unfortunately, I'm banned from Eve - currently the only sandbox which has a bright future. Other options on the table include: Darkfall, Mortal Online and Xyson. They're all sandboxes, however they are MMOs being developed by indie studios. All of those titles have dangerously low populations; considering Sandboxes are built around player interaction, that can only be bad thing.
We also have a nifty game called ArcheAge and its being developed by Korean game studio, XL Games. XL is struggling to find a publisher in the West, it is also facing accusations of stealing artwork from the creators of Tera; another upcoming MMO. The chances of seeing ArcheAge available in the West are extremely low. I don't know about you, but I can't speak Korean.....
It seems that investors aren't willing to put money into innovation, only willing to invest in studios which follow a blueprint which has worked in the past. We can only hope that current Sandbox titles can prove that the genre is profitable - encouraging others to choose innovation over recreation.
- Taken from TheWarpBubble: http://www.thewarpbubble.com/2012/02/sandbox-mmos-future-looks-bleak.html
Is this genre realling dying as much as this guy thinks it is? AA looks ok I guess, but then there is all that publisher bullcrap. Guild Wars 2, meh. Its a change but not really the sandbox innovation I'm looking for!
Comments
I'm hopeing WoD is going to be sandbox. Thats the only way i can see it actually feeling like World of Darkness, and after all CCP has one of the most successful Sandbox games of all time. so we can all cross our fingers and hope that they make a game with consiquence.
Because i can.
I'm Hopeful For Every Game, Until the Fan Boys Attack My Games. Then the Knives Come Out.
Logic every gamers worst enemy.
I don't believe the demographic is that limited. It's like thinking that everyone prefers action movies, because hey, they're obviously more fun, right? but when you really look at what people prefer, you see that all different genres are popular. Investors, and maybe even a lot of devs, seem to just go with that initial gut interpretation, and in the case of gamers, its even worse, because of the sorts of assumptions non-gamers have about gamers.
But way over on the other side of the spectrum, you have the success of games like Minecraft, The Sims, or even Farmville. A lot of the assumptions people have about gamers are just nonsense. People enjoy all sorts of things, and it's only logical that there's a lot more money to be made from almost entirely untapped markets, rather than fighting over the same demographics all the time.
When I want a single-player story, I'll play a single-player game. When I play an MMO, I want a massively multiplayer world.
Investors are not stopping it, nor are they even failing to support it. They are simply asking that developers have a plan to get them their money back.. and sandbox developers havent provided that.
Developers are not making a game because they are practical, they are making a game because they are dreamers, and want to make something creative that others can appreciate. Investors are not looking for creativity, they are looking for results. This is why so many companies fail. It takes a good mix of both to make a creative new product... that also has the potential to make money.
Recently, there have been multiple sandbox games that have come out... self published. The same creative types that dreamed up a world that you could wander aimlessly in, tried to use that knowledge to make money... and have not done real well. This includes games such as Earthrise, Darkfall, Mortal Online, etc. If they had partnered with someone on the business side.. and adjusted the game to meet the business requirements, they could have likely done much better.
This is the situation that investors love... a mix of creative, and pragmatic. This is where they put there money, because they see someone shooting for the moon (high upside), as well as somone firmly planted on the ground (cost controls, and realistic targets). When we see this combination with a sandbox (which I believe I am seeing with ArcheAge) then we will see a public success.
Me too. On paper, Eve sounds like the perfect game for me (PVP, Politics, Realistic Economy ect...), however when put into contents in a 'Spaceship' enviroment - for some reason I can't enjoy it. Hopefully World of Darkness will be Eve in a dark fantasy setting - I really hope it doesn't turn out to be a generic Vampire MMO. Judging by CCP's track record, I doubt they will fail to deliver when it comes to innovation.
It is silly to put the word "sandbox" next to the word "innvoation". Sandboxes have been tried before. It is an idea OLDER than WOW.
In fact, i would say it is a tried and failed idea. The BEST sandbox has ~400k subs, which way smaller than even TOR, a themepark game everyone rants about. And that is after so many years.
The genre had best just stick to gear grinding themeparks only really, we certainly don't want to see any innovation.I disagree with you there. Sandbox isn't a type of MMO really, more of a game design philosophy. Each sandbox is different, completely different. This is because Sandboxes rely on player interaction & player created story - each MMO has an entirely different community.
Well with all the recent WoW clones being flops (AoC, Rift, TOR) you'd think that the investors would get the message but most probably not.
We'll have to wait for a "fluke" sandbox hit (like WoW was for themeparks) for the investors to get interested in the genre.
About the ArcheAge thing, I think you got your facts mixed up. What I understand is it's the TERA crew that got sued by NCsoft (Lineage) for stealing stuff that was destined for Lineage 3. ArcheAge had nothing to do with it but maybe there was another incident between ArcheAge and TERA aswell, I don't know.
Innovation is not that great anyway. Good implementation, attention to details, and polish trumps innvoation anyday. Look at other video games, lots of great sequals (Bioshock 2, Dead Space 2, ....) with similar ideas to the core IP. Heck, even the non-sequals are not that innovative but many are fun.
Wait, TOR is a flop? It sold 2M boxes and retains 1.7M subs .. if that is a flop, many sandbox companies would LOVE to have flops.
Thank you - corrected on blog post.
OK, why doesn't one of you, or some of you start a "charitable" / non profit development studio to produce a AAA sandbox as a showcase to the investors and fatcats that it can work.
Well, the 2M box sales is probably accurate, but don't hang your hat on the 1.7M sub retention figure, that was pure marketing spin all the way and we'll see how many people are still playing in 3-6 months. (my guess is less than 500K)
BTW, I'm currently one of the retained, however I am in my first month still.
Now, back on topic, of course investors are limiting the development of a AAA sandbox MMORPG, they won't be convinced that some unproven model (which sandboxes really are) can deliver the number of box sales/subs that they know titles such as WOW, Rift and SWTOR have shown they can deliver.
No, EVE doesn't count, its a niche game that appeals to a small audiance, and investors today see numbers of subs in terms of millions, not hundreds of thousands which is likely all any good sandbox title will ever be able to draw.
"True friends stab you in the front." | Oscar Wilde
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Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
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"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
There goes another post that SW has 1.7m subs. That 1.7m was as of 1/1/12 I believe or 12/31/11 while it was still in the free month.
Now on topic. Investers want money and the only thing bringing in money is Themepark so we are stuck in a blackhole that is impossible to escape right now.
Its considered a flop because it didn't live up to its Hype (not many games do, however TOR was over-promised and under-delivered). I expect it will retain about 500k subs in Q4, and possibly continue delivering to a niche audience in 2013 - unless Bioware follows Trion's footsteps and releases regular content and polish.
Sandbox and AAA in the same sentance, must be April 1st.
Rofl. Yeah.
Sandbox games are not appealing to most people, sorry. Most sandbox fans can't seem to understand this, most people find them insanely BORING.
given current trends and upcoming games, i would think that even maintaining 500k subs is probably overly optimistic, if games like GW2, Tera, TSW, to say the least, were not on the near agenda, then maybe, as it stands though, i would say considerably less. There is a positive side to this though, and that is that it will actually encourage developers to look at the possibilities of sandbox games, versus the heavily scripted themepark ones, which at the end of the day, SW:TOR has proved is not viable except in perhaps a very small niche market.
Since the original post i am responding to is talking about the INVESTOR .. they would not care LESS about over-promised and under-delivered.
And your "expectation" does NOT make it a flop. It may go down to 500k (then it may be a flop), or it can jump up to 2M and it is a huge success. You simply do NOT know. Having an expectation does not make things magically true.
Sandbox is not a niche there is about 2 million active gamers currently subscribed to sandbox mmo's.
"It would be awesome if you could duel your companion. Then you could solo pvp".--Thanes
You don't know what qualifies something as a "flop". A "flop" is something that fails to sell and perform to expectations on a commercial level, it has nothing to do with it's content. SW:TOR delivered what it promised, and innovated where it said it would, to expect it to retain 500k subs down from what is now barrelling towards or even beyond 2 million active subscribers is a bit of a bizzare opinion which quite clearly isn't founded on factual information. The game continues to grow it's playerbase, and retain it. Will the momentum continue through the rest of the year? Hopefully, but doubtful. To expect that would be silly, especially in today's market. Expecting it to drop so dramatically is equally as delusional; but on the other end of the spectrum. What people aren't really even recognizing is how happy most players are to have an RPG in their MMO for the first time. A game that puts the player in the front seat and allows them to play a game that they tailor their own story to. The only competition it faces right now is GW2, which is shaping up to be quite the game; however with it's lack of a genuine end-game, and it's honestly incomparable (for the worst) story content, I can easily foresee SW:TOR getting over that slump quite easily as long as they manage to continue pumping out quality content in the interrum.
That's what Ryan Dancey (ex-CFO of EVE) is doing with Goblinworks.com
Pathfinder Online and Archeage Online are just a few of the sanbox titles in development, there will be many more to follow soon.
The WoW themepark race is starting to fade and in a few years time we will be calling WoW clones a niche.
"It would be awesome if you could duel your companion. Then you could solo pvp".--Thanes
But why?
If i remember myself actually playing in an actual sandbox two decades ago, i also remember, that it allways was even more fun when i had my little shovel and bucket, a few forms and access to water
Just sand? Mehh... ;(
I still think it'll be down to 150-250k subs within the next few months, which would definately be a flop, relative to how much they spent on it. Sure as hell won't be the cash cow they were banking on.. but as we're just hitting the 2 month mark, it's still too early to call it, one way or the other.
When I want a single-player story, I'll play a single-player game. When I play an MMO, I want a massively multiplayer world.
That is just you. I remember beta-testing for UO and it is a boring, bad, and aggravating game. I jumped ship to EQ once it was out.
It boils down to numbers. If more peopel are like you and vote with their wallets, sandbox games will have a bigger market.
I know how I am voting with my wallet. Do you?