Do you think GW2 will sell well over 2 Million copies its first week of release?
If it doesn't sell at least twice as many as SWTOR its a failure.
Not only are the poll choices horrible, but the tag line that if the game doesn't sell at least twice as many copies in it's first week as SWTOR it's a failure. Total rubbish. One big advantage of the B2P model is that it's a model that keeps fans as fans and grows sales numbers over time under the weight of ongoing word of mouth.
GW2 could sell half as many first week copies as SWTOR and still outsell the game ten fold by the end of the first year. Since no one is paying subscription fees, there is no lost revenue from people who come to the game a little late.
The game doesn't have nearly as much press outside the MMO community as SW:TOR did, and without the well known Bioware tag on it. I'd expect it to sell around a 1 million copies, with a very steady rise as word of mouth kicks in. I was suprised at the number of beta signups in a short period of time so I very well be wrong about this too.
It certainly wouldn't be a failure if it sold 1 million copies in it's first week. That's a huge success actually. I think overtime Guild Wars 2 could easily compete for the top 4 best seller spot for PC games, Guild Wars is already #7 and Guild Wars 2 is already shaping up to be a bigger success than the original if you believe the hype.
The game doesn't have nearly as much press outside the MMO community as SW:TOR did, and without the well known Bioware tag on it. I'd expect it to sell around a 1 million copies, with a very steady rise as word of mouth kicks in. I was suprised at the number of beta signups in a short period of time so I very well be wrong about this too.
It certainly wouldn't be a failure if it sold 1 million copies in it's first week. That's a huge success actually. I think overtime Guild Wars 2 could easily compete for the top 4 best seller spot for PC games, Guild Wars is already #7 and Guild Wars 2 is already shaping up to be a bigger success than the original if you believe the hype.
I don't care that much about the sales in the first week, I'm more interested about the long run.
How many people will be playing in one, two, five years from release.
If the Guild Wars 1 sales figure are any indication more people will be playing in two years then in the first few weeks.
Opposite of Star Wars TOR.
I paid less than 7 bucks for my copy of GW1. I'm guessing i'm not the only one in the same situation, and that's clearly not the same thing as selling a game at full price. Sure, it's still a lot of copies, but not as meaninful as it would be if everyone had paid 50 bucks.
The "success" of the game won't be determined by box sales, because it won't be enough to cover development costs and keep the game running. The success will be determined by the cash shop and how much money they're able to sucker away from people.
Do you think GW2 will sell well over 2 Million copies its first week of release?
If it doesn't sell at least twice as many as SWTOR its a failure.
Not only are the poll choices horrible, but the tag line that if the game doesn't sell at least twice as many copies in it's first week as SWTOR it's a failure. Total rubbish. One big advantage of the B2P model is that it's a model that keeps fans as fans and grows sales numbers over time under the weight of ongoing word of mouth.
GW2 could sell half as many first week copies as SWTOR and still outsell the game ten fold by the end of the first year. Since no one is paying subscription fees, there is no lost revenue from people who come to the game a little late.
There is just as much lost revenue, except it is lost from the Cash Shop instead of subscription rates. And the game doesn't "keep fans" just because it's B2P. If they uninstall the game, or simply quit playing, they are no longer part of the userbase. And if they don't buy shit from the cash shop, they're completely meaningless to NCSoft and don't count anyway.
As I said IF this is true, meaning there were 6 million games sold (not counting trilogy, expansions, etc.), then I would expect immediate sales to be roughly 2/3 of the amount or 4 million games. As for those that believe the active player base matters, it doesn't. Many people liked and enjoyed the game, but 'finished it' (whatever those goals were in there own minds), are willing to purchase the second one, and will do so.
Finally, If that number does include the trilogy then that means my estimate would be between 1.33 million and 2 million copies sold in the first days of sale. Honestly, I'll have 2 CE's if offered, having already paid for two regular versons, and that is all that really matters to me!
Do you think GW2 will sell well over 2 Million copies its first week of release?
If it doesn't sell at least twice as many as SWTOR its a failure.
Not only are the poll choices horrible, but the tag line that if the game doesn't sell at least twice as many copies in it's first week as SWTOR it's a failure. Total rubbish. One big advantage of the B2P model is that it's a model that keeps fans as fans and grows sales numbers over time under the weight of ongoing word of mouth.
GW2 could sell half as many first week copies as SWTOR and still outsell the game ten fold by the end of the first year. Since no one is paying subscription fees, there is no lost revenue from people who come to the game a little late.
There is just as much lost revenue, except it is lost from the Cash Shop instead of subscription rates. And the game doesn't "keep fans" just because it's B2P. If they uninstall the game, or simply quit playing, they are no longer part of the userbase. And if they don't buy shit from the cash shop, they're completely meaningless to NCSoft and don't count anyway.
thats only if A-net only see their customers as cash cows and not a community.
The game doesn't have nearly as much press outside the MMO community as SW:TOR did, and without the well known Bioware tag on it. I'd expect it to sell around a 1 million copies, with a very steady rise as word of mouth kicks in. I was suprised at the number of beta signups in a short period of time so I very well be wrong about this too.
It certainly wouldn't be a failure if it sold 1 million copies in it's first week. That's a huge success actually. I think overtime Guild Wars 2 could easily compete for the top 4 best seller spot for PC games, Guild Wars is already #7 and Guild Wars 2 is already shaping up to be a bigger success than the original if you believe the hype.
I don't care that much about the sales in the first week, I'm more interested about the long run.
How many people will be playing in one, two, five years from release.
If the Guild Wars 1 sales figure are any indication more people will be playing in two years then in the first few weeks.
Opposite of Star Wars TOR.
I paid less than 7 bucks for my copy of GW1. I'm guessing i'm not the only one in the same situation, and that's clearly not the same thing as selling a game at full price. Sure, it's still a lot of copies, but not as meaninful as it would be if everyone had paid 50 bucks.
The "success" of the game won't be determined by box sales, because it won't be enough to cover development costs and keep the game running. The success will be determined by the cash shop and how much money they're able to sucker away from people.
You paid $7 because the game was many years old by that point and some retailers were still sitting on old stock of the game. NCSoft makes revenue when the game boxes are purchased by the retailers, not when the end user buys the box from the retailer. Retail sales drive reorders, but profit isn't directly tied to sell through.
I've noticed that with the hype for GW2 growing, those $7 deals on GW1 are no more. The retail price on the GW trilogy box set, which was release 3 1/2 years ago with a retial price of $29.99 is now selling for around $24 on Amazon. Some subscription titles a lot more recent than that are selling for under $3!
I'm sure their will be product skus for GW2 a couple years from now that sell the original release and first expansion at a reduced price, but GW2 sales for at least the first year are likely to be at the same wholesale price seen on the day of release, even if the retail price should drop fro $59.99 to $49.99, or there abouts.
Do you think GW2 will sell well over 2 Million copies its first week of release?
If it doesn't sell at least twice as many as SWTOR its a failure.
I'd be surprised if they can pull 1M. And why would it be a failure if it does not sell more than TOR? It'll be a failure in your eyes?
So you think guild wars 2 will sell less than guild wars 1? awesome analysis man.
[Mod Edit]
GW1 sucked? That's news to me.
OH! of course, you were masquerading a random opinion that as important as this > pixel (yep the one at the end of the arrow) if it was rendered on a hobo's stolen iphone as a fact! oh silly me. You know, you almost had me fooled as you actually saying something that actually meant anything.
GW1 sold 7m including expansions. If the game sucked, no-one would have bought the expansions Also, most develoeprs would give their right arm for 7m sales. It also happens to be one of the highest reviewed games on this site.
The game doesn't have nearly as much press outside the MMO community as SW:TOR did, and without the well known Bioware tag on it. I'd expect it to sell around a 1 million copies, with a very steady rise as word of mouth kicks in. I was suprised at the number of beta signups in a short period of time so I very well be wrong about this too.
It certainly wouldn't be a failure if it sold 1 million copies in it's first week. That's a huge success actually. I think overtime Guild Wars 2 could easily compete for the top 4 best seller spot for PC games, Guild Wars is already #7 and Guild Wars 2 is already shaping up to be a bigger success than the original if you believe the hype.
I don't care that much about the sales in the first week, I'm more interested about the long run.
How many people will be playing in one, two, five years from release.
If the Guild Wars 1 sales figure are any indication more people will be playing in two years then in the first few weeks.
Opposite of Star Wars TOR.
I paid less than 7 bucks for my copy of GW1. I'm guessing i'm not the only one in the same situation, and that's clearly not the same thing as selling a game at full price. Sure, it's still a lot of copies, but not as meaninful as it would be if everyone had paid 50 bucks.
The "success" of the game won't be determined by box sales, because it won't be enough to cover development costs and keep the game running. The success will be determined by the cash shop and how much money they're able to sucker away from people.
Does guild Wars 1 have a cash shop?
If it does I'm pretty sure the first few years it didn't and it ran on box sales alone.
As far as sales projections, I think GW2 will sell some where between 500,000 and 2.5 million copies by the end of the first month, but has a good shot at 5 million by the end of year one. There is some room for upside on the first month sales, depending on how aggressively they market the game and their initial capacity. Because there is no subscription revenue to consider, it's even possible that they may have initial capacity limits that will grow over time, making it possible that supply for those who don't pre-order may be limited in the opening weeks.
The game doesn't have nearly as much press outside the MMO community as SW:TOR did, and without the well known Bioware tag on it. I'd expect it to sell around a 1 million copies, with a very steady rise as word of mouth kicks in. I was suprised at the number of beta signups in a short period of time so I very well be wrong about this too.
It certainly wouldn't be a failure if it sold 1 million copies in it's first week. That's a huge success actually. I think overtime Guild Wars 2 could easily compete for the top 4 best seller spot for PC games, Guild Wars is already #7 and Guild Wars 2 is already shaping up to be a bigger success than the original if you believe the hype.
I don't care that much about the sales in the first week, I'm more interested about the long run.
How many people will be playing in one, two, five years from release.
If the Guild Wars 1 sales figure are any indication more people will be playing in two years then in the first few weeks.
Opposite of Star Wars TOR.
I paid less than 7 bucks for my copy of GW1. I'm guessing i'm not the only one in the same situation, and that's clearly not the same thing as selling a game at full price. Sure, it's still a lot of copies, but not as meaninful as it would be if everyone had paid 50 bucks.
The "success" of the game won't be determined by box sales, because it won't be enough to cover development costs and keep the game running. The success will be determined by the cash shop and how much money they're able to sucker away from people.
Does guild Wars 1 have a cash shop?
If it does I'm pretty sure the first few years it didn't and it ran on box sales alone.
And it wasn't an MMO. This is. And they've said it will have a cash shop. And it's got a much bigger budget to pay off.
Do you think GW2 will sell well over 2 Million copies its first week of release?
If it doesn't sell at least twice as many as SWTOR its a failure.
Of course. Because Arena.net's sole purpose in making Guild Wars 2 is to outsell SW:TOR.
I say if they don't make a profit off the game, then it's a failure.
I voted 14 trillion because like most people here, I realize that your basic idea about GW is biased against it.
I actually think they will sell between 1 and 2 million the first month (maybe even close to 1 million the first week) and, if it's as good as we hope, it will sell a lot more over the next 6 months to a year.
You want me to pay to play a game I already paid for???
Aye, but they also have a much bigger audience that GW1 did, as that was a pretty niche game compared to a major MMO.
The store is essentially going to be the same as GW1 by the sounds of things. If someone wants to try and say otherwise, bring some proof, some misdeed in the past that Arenanet have commited which would mean they're going to have an extremely damaging store?
Worst thing in the GW1 store:
PvP skill unlock packs: which were around BEFORE the store as part of the PvP versions of GW1 What do they do? unlock the skills for PvP characters instead of you having to take a few games to get them. After that initial two-three hours any advantage is totally negated. It's why no-one buys them.
Also, i wasn't aware the game was a failure unless it sells 4m in a month. That's news to me as well. Considering ToR has sold 170k copies after the first month (yeah, i know, i find it funny too, ToR fanboys are clinging onto sales that were made from pre-orders and hype before the reality of the game hit) in the last 2 months does that mean it's now dead? By the OP's logic, hell yes.
The story of ToR's sales:
First week: 'ZOMG HYYPPPEEEE, EA TOLD ME THIS WAS THE SECOND COMING OF JESUS AND NOT A WOW CLONE!' - 1.7m copies
After that (many kill 10 rats quests later): 'This games a bit mediocre isn't it?' - 450k copies since for the most expensive and heavily marketed MMO launch of all time.
Also, i don't actually know anyone (in real life that is) who stayed with the game after the free month. Sure, there was only 5-6 of us, but still.
The game doesn't have nearly as much press outside the MMO community as SW:TOR did, and without the well known Bioware tag on it. I'd expect it to sell around a 1 million copies, with a very steady rise as word of mouth kicks in. I was suprised at the number of beta signups in a short period of time so I very well be wrong about this too.
It certainly wouldn't be a failure if it sold 1 million copies in it's first week. That's a huge success actually. I think overtime Guild Wars 2 could easily compete for the top 4 best seller spot for PC games, Guild Wars is already #7 and Guild Wars 2 is already shaping up to be a bigger success than the original if you believe the hype.
I don't care that much about the sales in the first week, I'm more interested about the long run.
How many people will be playing in one, two, five years from release.
If the Guild Wars 1 sales figure are any indication more people will be playing in two years then in the first few weeks.
Opposite of Star Wars TOR.
I paid less than 7 bucks for my copy of GW1. I'm guessing i'm not the only one in the same situation, and that's clearly not the same thing as selling a game at full price. Sure, it's still a lot of copies, but not as meaninful as it would be if everyone had paid 50 bucks.
The "success" of the game won't be determined by box sales, because it won't be enough to cover development costs and keep the game running. The success will be determined by the cash shop and how much money they're able to sucker away from people.
Does guild Wars 1 have a cash shop?
If it does I'm pretty sure the first few years it didn't and it ran on box sales alone.
Comments
Same thought here. Post a uselessly skewed poll and get a useless answer.
Want to know more about GW2 and why there is so much buzz? Start here: Guild Wars 2 Mass Info for the Uninitiated
Not only are the poll choices horrible, but the tag line that if the game doesn't sell at least twice as many copies in it's first week as SWTOR it's a failure. Total rubbish. One big advantage of the B2P model is that it's a model that keeps fans as fans and grows sales numbers over time under the weight of ongoing word of mouth.
GW2 could sell half as many first week copies as SWTOR and still outsell the game ten fold by the end of the first year. Since no one is paying subscription fees, there is no lost revenue from people who come to the game a little late.
Want to know more about GW2 and why there is so much buzz? Start here: Guild Wars 2 Mass Info for the Uninitiated
I didn't know Guild Wars sold THAT good.
I don't care that much about the sales in the first week, I'm more interested about the long run.
How many people will be playing in one, two, five years from release.
If the Guild Wars 1 sales figure are any indication more people will be playing in two years then in the first few weeks.
Opposite of Star Wars TOR.
I think 2 mil at first and then it slowly climbs from there but we'll see.
This is not a game.
I'll see your 14 trillion and raise you another 40 trillion. There are aliens in other galaxies, too, y'know. ;P
I paid less than 7 bucks for my copy of GW1. I'm guessing i'm not the only one in the same situation, and that's clearly not the same thing as selling a game at full price. Sure, it's still a lot of copies, but not as meaninful as it would be if everyone had paid 50 bucks.
The "success" of the game won't be determined by box sales, because it won't be enough to cover development costs and keep the game running. The success will be determined by the cash shop and how much money they're able to sucker away from people.
guild wars 1 sold six million so expect at least the same amount sold for guild wars 2.
There is just as much lost revenue, except it is lost from the Cash Shop instead of subscription rates. And the game doesn't "keep fans" just because it's B2P. If they uninstall the game, or simply quit playing, they are no longer part of the userbase. And if they don't buy shit from the cash shop, they're completely meaningless to NCSoft and don't count anyway.
6 million units sold.
thats only if A-net only see their customers as cash cows and not a community.
This poll is way off.
It will sell at least 25 Trillion, if not more. Hell preorders alone will be 14 Trillion.
I'd be surprised if they can pull 1M. And why would it be a failure if it does not sell more than TOR? It'll be a failure in your eyes?
Guild Wars 2's 50 minutes game play video:
http://n4g.com/news/592585/guild-wars-2-50-minutes-of-pure-gameplay
Everything We Know about GW2:
http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/287180/page/1
So you think guild wars 2 will sell less than guild wars 1? awesome analysis man.
You paid $7 because the game was many years old by that point and some retailers were still sitting on old stock of the game. NCSoft makes revenue when the game boxes are purchased by the retailers, not when the end user buys the box from the retailer. Retail sales drive reorders, but profit isn't directly tied to sell through.
I've noticed that with the hype for GW2 growing, those $7 deals on GW1 are no more. The retail price on the GW trilogy box set, which was release 3 1/2 years ago with a retial price of $29.99 is now selling for around $24 on Amazon. Some subscription titles a lot more recent than that are selling for under $3!
I'm sure their will be product skus for GW2 a couple years from now that sell the original release and first expansion at a reduced price, but GW2 sales for at least the first year are likely to be at the same wholesale price seen on the day of release, even if the retail price should drop fro $59.99 to $49.99, or there abouts.
Want to know more about GW2 and why there is so much buzz? Start here: Guild Wars 2 Mass Info for the Uninitiated
About 40% chose 14 trillion lol
?
I almost only read positive things about Guild Wars 1 in all these years.
Why do you think there is so much hype for GW2..
GW1 sucked? That's news to me.
OH! of course, you were masquerading a random opinion that as important as this > pixel (yep the one at the end of the arrow) if it was rendered on a hobo's stolen iphone as a fact! oh silly me.
You know, you almost had me fooled as you actually saying something that actually meant anything.
GW1 sold 7m including expansions. If the game sucked, no-one would have bought the expansions
Also, most develoeprs would give their right arm for 7m sales. It also happens to be one of the highest reviewed games on this site.
Does guild Wars 1 have a cash shop?
If it does I'm pretty sure the first few years it didn't and it ran on box sales alone.
As far as sales projections, I think GW2 will sell some where between 500,000 and 2.5 million copies by the end of the first month, but has a good shot at 5 million by the end of year one. There is some room for upside on the first month sales, depending on how aggressively they market the game and their initial capacity. Because there is no subscription revenue to consider, it's even possible that they may have initial capacity limits that will grow over time, making it possible that supply for those who don't pre-order may be limited in the opening weeks.
Want to know more about GW2 and why there is so much buzz? Start here: Guild Wars 2 Mass Info for the Uninitiated
And it wasn't an MMO. This is. And they've said it will have a cash shop. And it's got a much bigger budget to pay off.
Of course. Because Arena.net's sole purpose in making Guild Wars 2 is to outsell SW:TOR.
I say if they don't make a profit off the game, then it's a failure.
I voted 14 trillion because like most people here, I realize that your basic idea about GW is biased against it.
I actually think they will sell between 1 and 2 million the first month (maybe even close to 1 million the first week) and, if it's as good as we hope, it will sell a lot more over the next 6 months to a year.
You want me to pay to play a game I already paid for???
Be afraid.....The dragons are HERE!
either 14 trillion or about 1M. it's a toss up. /sarcasm
EDIT: the post above me hit the nail on the head. rethink your definitions or GW2 will fail, you'll rage, and the rest of us will just roll our eyes.
Be wary of those too invested in a game they haven't played .........
Aye, but they also have a much bigger audience that GW1 did, as that was a pretty niche game compared to a major MMO.
The store is essentially going to be the same as GW1 by the sounds of things. If someone wants to try and say otherwise, bring some proof, some misdeed in the past that Arenanet have commited which would mean they're going to have an extremely damaging store?
Worst thing in the GW1 store:
PvP skill unlock packs: which were around BEFORE the store as part of the PvP versions of GW1
What do they do? unlock the skills for PvP characters instead of you having to take a few games to get them. After that initial two-three hours any advantage is totally negated. It's why no-one buys them.
Also, i wasn't aware the game was a failure unless it sells 4m in a month. That's news to me as well. Considering ToR has sold 170k copies after the first month (yeah, i know, i find it funny too, ToR fanboys are clinging onto sales that were made from pre-orders and hype before the reality of the game hit) in the last 2 months does that mean it's now dead? By the OP's logic, hell yes.
The story of ToR's sales:
First week: 'ZOMG HYYPPPEEEE, EA TOLD ME THIS WAS THE SECOND COMING OF JESUS AND NOT A WOW CLONE!' - 1.7m copies
After that (many kill 10 rats quests later): 'This games a bit mediocre isn't it?' - 450k copies since for the most expensive and heavily marketed MMO launch of all time.
Also, i don't actually know anyone (in real life that is) who stayed with the game after the free month. Sure, there was only 5-6 of us, but still.
https://secure.ncsoft.com/cgi-bin/Store.pl?action=toggleCategory&category=4#featured
The GW2 cash shop will be similar, but with out skill, hero or PvP item unlocks and with a lot more cosmetic items.
Want to know more about GW2 and why there is so much buzz? Start here: Guild Wars 2 Mass Info for the Uninitiated
