If you don't include the Chinese sales of MoP, this question becomes bit of a joke.
GW2 will probably have more success in the western world than MoP.
You can't underestimate having no monthly fee.
There is no way GW2 will sell more than 2 million boxes, and even that is a high number.
WoW will sell an easy 3 million in western markets, possibly even 4 million.
If we include Asia, GW2 might hit 3 million overall, Pandaria will hit 8 million overall.
These are my predictions.
You have much to learn if you think that GW2 is only going to sell 2 million copies.
I have much to learn? Clearly you are a fanboy who thinks your favorite game will outsell everything.
I've done my market research, if we take WoW out of the equation (as we should, because it's leagues ahead of GW2 playerbase wise) then we look at the sales of recent MMO's.
First I'll look at a massively successful single player game, Skyrim, which has around 1.5 million PC sales.
Rift, which has very little marketing sold around 1 million copies.
The Old Republic (which had much more marketing than GW2) sold 2 million.
Now, tell me where you get your sales figures from?
Does GW2 have a massive following? Not really, not as much as The Elder Scrolls or Star Wars.
Does it have a massive marketing budget? Again, no, nowhere near EA's for The Old Republic, but more than Rift's probably.
I've made a well educated guess on sales. Whereas a lot of people on this thread haven't. Just because they enjoy a game they believe it will sell more copies than the bible.
The point I'm trying to make is, unless it is a Blizzard game, it is very, very hard to sell more than 2 million PC games.
Edit; Also, I was talking about western markets alone. If we take into account of Asia, then it will sell 3-5 million overall. Whereas Pandaria overall will sell 5-9 million.
So the only selling point is if the game is made by a big company? Ohh seems legit.... Ohh and the game is Published by NCSOFT.
The game is great and it's cheap. In the beta's there was 100 yes 100 servers, with atleast 5.000 people on each server. Hmm so that mean that since you have to buy the game to get into the beta there is already sold 500.000 copies. HMM, on Vgchart there is 182,444 pre-orders in the USA, and Guild Wars have a large following in the EU.
So if add those numbers up we have 500.000 who have already bought the game, plus 182.000 in the USA who have pre-ordered and then we add lets say 100.000 people from the EU we have.
500.000 + 182.000 + 100.000 = 782.000 people. See, if you think the game is not going to sell over 2 million copies you are blind.
I've also got a feeling that more than half of MMO players pre-order/pre-purchase any game they might play.
So yes, lets double the number you've brought up, and we have just less than 2 million.
Now lets add the few non MMO players that will buy the game and we have around 2million copies, or just over 2million, sales.
So yes, I still believe the game will sell around 2 million copies in EU/NA.
So the only selling point is if the game is made by a big company? Ohh seems legit.... Ohh and the game is Published by NCSOFT.
The game is great and it's cheap. In the beta's there was 100 yes 100 servers, with atleast 5.000 people on each server. Hmm so that mean that since you have to buy the game to get into the beta there is already sold 500.000 copies. HMM, on Vgchart there is 182,444 pre-orders in the USA, and Guild Wars have a large following in the EU.
So if add those numbers up we have 500.000 who have already bought the game, plus 182.000 in the USA who have pre-ordered and then we add lets say 100.000 people from the EU we have.
500.000 + 182.000 + 100.000 = 782.000 people. See, if you think the game is not going to sell over 2 million copies you are blind.
1- Not all the servers where full and not everybody who played beta will buy.
2- LOL Vgchart
3- 100000 are completly accurate.
1.
The people in the beta already bought the game, and yes the servers were not all full but then again not all who pre-purchasedthe game was in the beta.
2.
Vgchart have their numbers from somewhere so the game have ATLEAST 182.000 pre-orders in the USA.
3.
Yes i think the number is higher aswell, 100.000 i pretty low btw.
Ok guild wars 2 had the potential to sell between 2-4 mil before the year is out, but can they do it... Sure but they need good marketing.. I remember seeing D3 commercial on theater screen and I was like thats reaching audience right there..
Will NCsoft push Gw2 like that, maybe.. See they will look at it and say most from the first guild wars will make the transition over, that alone is more than a mil in box sales..
Mists on the other hand, forget it.. Its blizz we are talking about here.. They go to ends to let person know of there product.. I don't think they will break D3 sale speed record, but they will move around 2mil + in 3 days or less... Its just amazing how big and faithful blizz fans are.. You would think pc gaming is profitable for most dev's...
By Asia do you just mean China? or do you mean Korea and Japan as well, india, russia... What about Australia, Indonesia...?
Asia, Australia, Africa, there is not going to be any server there.
Gotcha so we can say for the initial launch period at least all sales are limited to NA and EU. Any info on when that changes? I can't see this not being sold in Korea.
Just because you don't like it doesn't mean it is bad.
By Asia do you just mean China? or do you mean Korea and Japan as well, india, russia... What about Australia, Indonesia...?
Asia, Australia, Africa, there is not going to be any server there.
Gotcha so we can say for the initial launch period at least all sales are limited to NA and EU. Any info on when that changes? I can't see this not being sold in Korea.
Not really, the release date came last week and there haven't been any news about it.
Hmm tough call, I'm with GW2 by a pretty big margin. WoW has dried up especially in NA and EU, many are tired of the WoW formula which many companies have modeled their MMO after. Especially with the diverse market now I don't think WoW will be the collosal hit that it once was. Ever since SWTOR WoW's greatness has been and will be on a steady decline which only the "Titan" project might bring back many former consumers.
Try a different question: which game has sold the most out of GW1 and WoW? Both games were / are mega sucessful.
Over time WoW has clearly sold tens of millions of copies - far more than the peak 12M sub number. And years ago NCSoft advertised GW1 as having sold 20M copies. I have no idea which has sold the most but GW1 still sells today!
As GW2 maintains the basic f2p approach I would expect that over time it to will sell a huge number of copies - probably more that MoP as well because of the "f2p vs. subscription" approach.
Wow dev's just care about sustaining the number of sub they have going now.. I'm sure by now they realize it has peaked.. If you were a past wow player and quit and then turn around and buy mists expansion.. Blizz would have half succeeded, because it shows you still love there products, but maybe this wasn't for you..
I love wow and won't stop playing, just because a new shiny product without substance comes along.. I'll also support other games that peak my interest and if that game can keep me entertained, I'll play it long also..
some players tend to treat games way too personal and some are easily influence by other on what to like and play..
what made gw1 success was mainly its pvp tournament!like i said even if arenanet charged monthly for those tournament goer ,gw2 will still do great!why?why do people buy lotery?
Try a different question: which game has sold the most out of GW1 and WoW? Both games were / are mega sucessful.
Over time WoW has clearly sold tens of millions of copies - far more than the peak 12M sub number. And years ago NCSoft advertised GW1 as having sold 20M copies. I have no idea which has sold the most but GW1 still sells today!
As GW2 maintains the basic f2p approach I would expect that over time it to will sell a huge number of copies - probably more that MoP as well because of the "f2p vs. subscription" approach.
NCsoft has never said GW1 has sold 20million, because that would be a blatant lie. GW1 has sold 7 million, including all expansions.
WoW has sold in the margin of 40-80 million boxes.
And WoW will continue to outsell every other MMO for a long time.
Try a different question: which game has sold the most out of GW1 and WoW? Both games were / are mega sucessful.
Over time WoW has clearly sold tens of millions of copies - far more than the peak 12M sub number. And years ago NCSoft advertised GW1 as having sold 20M copies. I have no idea which has sold the most but GW1 still sells today!
As GW2 maintains the basic f2p approach I would expect that over time it to will sell a huge number of copies - probably more that MoP as well because of the "f2p vs. subscription" approach.
NCsoft has never said GW1 has sold 20million, because that would be a blatant lie. GW1 has sold 7 million, including all expansions.
WoW has sold in the margin of 40-80 million boxes.
And WoW will continue to outsell every other MMO for a long time.
Although some of the GW boxes contained more than 1 campaign, some even all tha campaigns.
Not that it makes much difference in the end, but not bad for a first game of a new small studio designed to be PvP and only went heavy PvE with nightfall and eye of the north.
It is interesing that GW become a success while failling the original premise - be a heavy oriented PvP game that could be an esport.
Currently playing: GW2 Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, 7 Wonders
I've done my market research, if we take WoW out of the equation (as we should, because it's leagues ahead of GW2 playerbase wise) then we look at the sales of recent MMO's.
First I'll look at a massively successful single player game, Skyrim, which has around 1.5 million PC sales.
Rift, which has very little marketing sold around 1 million copies.
The Old Republic (which had much more marketing than GW2) sold 2 million.
RIFT sold one million after 5 or 6 months and had more hype than the original guild wars
7 years ago, April 2005, with not much hype
and launching on heels of WOW, GuildWars sold one million in first 5 months
I've done my market research, if we take WoW out of the equation (as we should, because it's leagues ahead of GW2 playerbase wise) then we look at the sales of recent MMO's.
First I'll look at a massively successful single player game, Skyrim, which has around 1.5 million PC sales.
Rift, which has very little marketing sold around 1 million copies.
The Old Republic (which had much more marketing than GW2) sold 2 million.
RIFT sold one million after 5 or 6 months and had more hype than the original guild wars
7 years ago, April 2005, with not much hype
and launching on heels of WOW, GuildWars sold one million in first 5 months
Guild Wars 1 had much more marketing than Rift, as it had one of the biggest gaming companies in the world backing it up (NCSoft.)
I also think GW1 had more hype than Rift too, it was the first game I ever heard being called a "WoW killer."
You also have to remember the only real competition GW1 had in 2005 was WoW.
Now, in 2012, it has not only WoW, but The Old Republic, Rift, Tera, The Secret World, Elder Scrolls and a number of others releasing in the next 12 months. Which is a lot more competition than the first one.
You honestly believe Guild Wars 2 will sell 4 million copies in it's first year? Has an MMO ever even done that (other than WoW)? I seriously doubt that.
I think GW2 might do as well as GW1, maybe a little worse, maybe a tiny bit better.
I'm standing strong with my opinion; GW2 will sell close to 2 million.
other companies are finding it surprisingly hard to duplicate Sony's success. Microsoft abandoned Mythica last week, even before the game was officially launched. "We were looking at the . . . market and really determined that we couldn't be competitive," said Microsoft spokeswoman Genevieve Waldman.
other companies are finding it surprisingly hard to duplicate Sony's success. Microsoft abandoned Mythica last week, even before the game was officially launched. "We were looking at the . . . market and really determined that we couldn't be competitive," said Microsoft spokeswoman Genevieve Waldman.
But very little in 2005 when GW1 was released. Other than WoW.
CoH, EQ2 and Final Fantasy had smaller loyal fanbases, in the hundreds of thousands sure, but only WoW had millions.
It doesn't surprise me that GW1 was so successful with it's lack of competition.
GW2 on the other hand has much, much more competition with with more already released games having strong loyal player bases (CoH, Final Fantasy, EQ2, WoW, Rift, Lotro, DnD etc.)
And then newly released games, or games yet to be released coming around the same time as GW2 (Tera, TSW, ESO, ArcheAge and a few other sandboxes.)
Mists of Pandas will sell more, that is an easy one to call. That isn't saying it will be a better game, just that MoP alreeady has the playerbase of 10 million to purchase it. GW2 will be lucky to get half of that in box sales in a year, and this is coming from a GW2 fan.
You also have to remember the only real competition GW1 had in 2005 was WoW.
Now, in 2012, it has not only WoW, but The Old Republic, Rift, Tera, The Secret World, Elder Scrolls and a number of others releasing in the next 12 months. Which is a lot more competition than the first one.
GW1 wasnt an MMORPG
That said, 2005 also had EQ2, SWG wasnt NGE'd yet, EQ1 still had a higher pop than any of those other games you listed besides SWTOR, and you had the release of LOTRO
WoWs success in the western market obviously has everything to do with Chuck Norris and Mister T.
If those guys aren't onboard with GW2 I seriously doubt it will outsell the panda expansion. I mean its conceivably possible that GW2 gets someone like Clint Eastwood or the ghosts of Charles Bronson and John Wayne to add to the marketing hype but I seriously doubt it.
The above is my personal opinion. Anyone displaying a view contrary to my opinion is obviously WRONG and should STHU. (neener neener)
Comments
I've also got a feeling that more than half of MMO players pre-order/pre-purchase any game they might play.
So yes, lets double the number you've brought up, and we have just less than 2 million.
Now lets add the few non MMO players that will buy the game and we have around 2million copies, or just over 2million, sales.
So yes, I still believe the game will sell around 2 million copies in EU/NA.
1.
The people in the beta already bought the game, and yes the servers were not all full but then again not all who pre-purchased the game was in the beta.
2.
Vgchart have their numbers from somewhere so the game have ATLEAST 182.000 pre-orders in the USA.
3.
Yes i think the number is higher aswell, 100.000 i pretty low btw.
It probalby will sell 2+ million but again you asked for just NA and EU, so what percentage of that will be NA and EU?
Ehh 100 %?, the game does not launch in Asia.
Is there a time line after release that the boxes can be sold in?
MOP is the first WoW expansion that I wont buy, Cata was the last one I will ever buy.
I wonder how many there are like me?
"Be water my friend" - Bruce Lee
By Asia do you just mean China? or do you mean Korea and Japan as well, india, russia... What about Australia, Indonesia...?
Will NCsoft push Gw2 like that, maybe.. See they will look at it and say most from the first guild wars will make the transition over, that alone is more than a mil in box sales..
Mists on the other hand, forget it.. Its blizz we are talking about here.. They go to ends to let person know of there product.. I don't think they will break D3 sale speed record, but they will move around 2mil + in 3 days or less... Its just amazing how big and faithful blizz fans are.. You would think pc gaming is profitable for most dev's...
Asia, Australia, Africa, there is not going to be any server there.
Gotcha so we can say for the initial launch period at least all sales are limited to NA and EU. Any info on when that changes? I can't see this not being sold in Korea.
Not really, the release date came last week and there haven't been any news about it.
Hmm tough call, I'm with GW2 by a pretty big margin. WoW has dried up especially in NA and EU, many are tired of the WoW formula which many companies have modeled their MMO after. Especially with the diverse market now I don't think WoW will be the collosal hit that it once was. Ever since SWTOR WoW's greatness has been and will be on a steady decline which only the "Titan" project might bring back many former consumers.
+1 Cata was the last WoW expansion i'll ever buy, MoP doesn't excite me at all.
Expresso gave me a Hearthstone beta key.....I'm so happy
Try a different question: which game has sold the most out of GW1 and WoW? Both games were / are mega sucessful.
Over time WoW has clearly sold tens of millions of copies - far more than the peak 12M sub number. And years ago NCSoft advertised GW1 as having sold 20M copies. I have no idea which has sold the most but GW1 still sells today!
As GW2 maintains the basic f2p approach I would expect that over time it to will sell a huge number of copies - probably more that MoP as well because of the "f2p vs. subscription" approach.
Wow dev's just care about sustaining the number of sub they have going now.. I'm sure by now they realize it has peaked.. If you were a past wow player and quit and then turn around and buy mists expansion.. Blizz would have half succeeded, because it shows you still love there products, but maybe this wasn't for you..
I love wow and won't stop playing, just because a new shiny product without substance comes along.. I'll also support other games that peak my interest and if that game can keep me entertained, I'll play it long also..
some players tend to treat games way too personal and some are easily influence by other on what to like and play..
what made gw1 success was mainly its pvp tournament!like i said even if arenanet charged monthly for those tournament goer ,gw2 will still do great!why?why do people buy lotery?
NCsoft has never said GW1 has sold 20million, because that would be a blatant lie. GW1 has sold 7 million, including all expansions.
WoW has sold in the margin of 40-80 million boxes.
And WoW will continue to outsell every other MMO for a long time.
Although some of the GW boxes contained more than 1 campaign, some even all tha campaigns.
Not that it makes much difference in the end, but not bad for a first game of a new small studio designed to be PvP and only went heavy PvE with nightfall and eye of the north.
It is interesing that GW become a success while failling the original premise - be a heavy oriented PvP game that could be an esport.
Currently playing: GW2
Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, 7 Wonders
RIFT sold one million after 5 or 6 months and had more hype than the original guild wars
7 years ago, April 2005, with not much hype
and launching on heels of WOW, GuildWars sold one million in first 5 months
http://guildwars.com/events/press/releases/
Guild Wars sold 2 million by its first year
im expecting Guild Wars 2 to sell more than double that - by end of the first year
for context,
when Guild Wars announced one million sold in Sept 2005
WOW announced TOTAL subs of 3.5 million -- 2million US/EU, 1.5 million China
http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=5989
EQ2 fan sites
Guild Wars 1 had much more marketing than Rift, as it had one of the biggest gaming companies in the world backing it up (NCSoft.)
I also think GW1 had more hype than Rift too, it was the first game I ever heard being called a "WoW killer."
You also have to remember the only real competition GW1 had in 2005 was WoW.
Now, in 2012, it has not only WoW, but The Old Republic, Rift, Tera, The Secret World, Elder Scrolls and a number of others releasing in the next 12 months. Which is a lot more competition than the first one.
You honestly believe Guild Wars 2 will sell 4 million copies in it's first year? Has an MMO ever even done that (other than WoW)? I seriously doubt that.
I think GW2 might do as well as GW1, maybe a little worse, maybe a tiny bit better.
I'm standing strong with my opinion; GW2 will sell close to 2 million.
as i posted elsewhere
in spring 2004, PreWOW,
Microsoft cancelled their mmo, Mythica, citing that the mmo market was too competitive
Flood of games, too few players cause change in online realm (Boston Globe article from Feb 2004)
http://otherworlds31279.yuku.com/topic/1167/Online-games-failure-success-Boston-Globe-article
other companies are finding it surprisingly hard to duplicate Sony's success. Microsoft abandoned Mythica last week, even before the game was officially launched. "We were looking at the . . . market and really determined that we couldn't be competitive," said Microsoft spokeswoman Genevieve Waldman.
EQ2 fan sites
But very little in 2005 when GW1 was released. Other than WoW.
CoH, EQ2 and Final Fantasy had smaller loyal fanbases, in the hundreds of thousands sure, but only WoW had millions.
It doesn't surprise me that GW1 was so successful with it's lack of competition.
GW2 on the other hand has much, much more competition with with more already released games having strong loyal player bases (CoH, Final Fantasy, EQ2, WoW, Rift, Lotro, DnD etc.)
And then newly released games, or games yet to be released coming around the same time as GW2 (Tera, TSW, ESO, ArcheAge and a few other sandboxes.)
Mists of Pandas will sell more, that is an easy one to call. That isn't saying it will be a better game, just that MoP alreeady has the playerbase of 10 million to purchase it. GW2 will be lucky to get half of that in box sales in a year, and this is coming from a GW2 fan.
GW1 wasnt an MMORPG
That said, 2005 also had EQ2, SWG wasnt NGE'd yet, EQ1 still had a higher pop than any of those other games you listed besides SWTOR, and you had the release of LOTRO
Hahahaha great stuff.
This man wins the thread !!!
WoWs success in the western market obviously has everything to do with Chuck Norris and Mister T.
If those guys aren't onboard with GW2 I seriously doubt it will outsell the panda expansion. I mean its conceivably possible that GW2 gets someone like Clint Eastwood or the ghosts of Charles Bronson and John Wayne to add to the marketing hype but I seriously doubt it.
The above is my personal opinion. Anyone displaying a view contrary to my opinion is obviously WRONG and should STHU. (neener neener)
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