I think it's going to be higher than some of the more reasonable posters. My guess would be 6 million by October 28th and 9 million by Christmas. My unreasonable prediction has more to do with this game being treated more like any B2P game (like Diablo or COD). And I personally think this game is reaching audiences that most MMORPGs aren't able to.
i must agree here GW2 is not ordinary MMO if they will do good marketing audience who normally dont play MMOs will come. and for sure GW2 not a niche game it apleas for large audience 5+mill can be done and much more in future years
Even with all the good reasons why GW2 should sell well (quality, B2P, yada yada) and will eventually pass TOR, when you're talking about just the first two months, I just don't see GW2's sales figures exceeding TOR's (around 2.2 million) for that same period. TOR had a number of favorable factors going for it, including to its release close to the holidays, nearly the whole NFL season to market it, the Star Wars and Bioware names to lure a number of first-time MMOers, and the fact that most people didn't yet know that it sucked. =P
I also think fans tend to greatly overestimate the number of people "sitting on the fence" waiting for reviews and to see how launch issues pan out. Games these days are far too hyped and there's far too much information out there for there to be the huge element twiddling their thumbs like there used to be.
I'll go with 1.8 million at the end of October, with strong growth into the holiday season.
The "free to play" (not to buy, no nitpicking ok?) model will definitely attract people who would never buy a MMORPG otherwise. I sadly predict it will also be an adolescent's xmas gift and that the community quality will take a nosedive by xmas. No credit card needed to play will make many parents accept what they would otherwise not agree with.
They will pass 2 millions the first 2 months, and definitely pass 3.5 millions by xmas, if not more.
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I think it's going to be higher than some of the more reasonable posters. My guess would be 6 million by October 28th and 9 million by Christmas. My unreasonable prediction has more to do with this game being treated more like any B2P game (like Diablo or COD). And I personally think this game is reaching audiences that most MMORPGs aren't able to.
Not a snowballs chance in hell.
I'll sigbet you. If you lose you have to put "SWTOR is the greatest mmo ever." If I lose you can come up with something for me to put in my sig.
I think it's going to be higher than some of the more reasonable posters. My guess would be 6 million by October 28th and 9 million by Christmas. My unreasonable prediction has more to do with this game being treated more like any B2P game (like Diablo or COD). And I personally think this game is reaching audiences that most MMORPGs aren't able to.
Not a snowballs chance in hell.
I'll sigbet you. If you lose you have to put "SWTOR is the greatest mmo ever." If I lose you can come up with something for me to put in my sig.
lol
I did make it clear it was unreasonable. But I'll put that in my sig if I'm wrong whenever they release the numbers. If I hit the long shot and it starts snowing in hell, you have to put, "GW2 WvW is not P2W."
I'll sigbet you. If you lose you have to put "SWTOR is the greatest mmo ever." If I lose you can come up with something for me to put in my sig.
lol
I did make it clear it was unreasonable. But I'll put that in my sig if I'm wrong whenever they release the numbers. If I hit the long shot and it starts snowing in hell, you have to put, "GW2 WvW is not P2W."
Deal.
For the record I don't think GW2 is P2W.
I do think at launch that Gems can give a player an advantage in WvWvW. I don't think this will last forever though.
I'll sigbet you. If you lose you have to put "SWTOR is the greatest mmo ever." If I lose you can come up with something for me to put in my sig.
lol
I did make it clear it was unreasonable. But I'll put that in my sig if I'm wrong whenever they release the numbers. If I hit the long shot and it starts snowing in hell, you have to put, "GW2 WvW is not P2W."
Deal.
For the record I don't think GW2 is P2W.
I do think at launch that Gems can give a player an advantage in WvWvW. I don't think this will last forever though.
Yeah, I don't think that's going to stop people from thinking you're a GW2 fanboy when they see that sig.
But I agree with you about WvW. In the first few weeks, buying gems and trading for gold might give a few people a head start on accessable WvW upgrades and siege equipment. Hopefully because there are full servers of people vs full servers of people, most servers will have a few of these people to help offset each other.
I said before the hype/marketing for this game was WAY to soon and that''s is going to bite them. Notice how you don''t see any GW2 related articles on gaming websites anymore?
Hell, I don''t even remember why I''m interested in this game (not in beta )
I do see this selling more like a single player title, due to the no sub model mostly, but I also wonder how popular this franchise really is outside of it's core audience?
GW1 sold 7 or 8 million copies across all expansions, but perhaps GW2 will be more widely received.
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
Gw2 has sold around 700k already (not preorder, they bought full game), it has that many preorders too, that's 1.4 mill from the start. In the next 2 months it will sell that many more. That's 2.8 mill. My prediction.
Comments
i must agree here GW2 is not ordinary MMO if they will do good marketing audience who normally dont play MMOs will come. and for sure GW2 not a niche game it apleas for large audience 5+mill can be done and much more in future years
3.25 million
3.5 mil
Even with all the good reasons why GW2 should sell well (quality, B2P, yada yada) and will eventually pass TOR, when you're talking about just the first two months, I just don't see GW2's sales figures exceeding TOR's (around 2.2 million) for that same period. TOR had a number of favorable factors going for it, including to its release close to the holidays, nearly the whole NFL season to market it, the Star Wars and Bioware names to lure a number of first-time MMOers, and the fact that most people didn't yet know that it sucked. =P
I also think fans tend to greatly overestimate the number of people "sitting on the fence" waiting for reviews and to see how launch issues pan out. Games these days are far too hyped and there's far too much information out there for there to be the huge element twiddling their thumbs like there used to be.
I'll go with 1.8 million at the end of October, with strong growth into the holiday season.
Uncharted 2 3mil in less than 2 month
MGS4 5.4 mil in less than 2 months
i can continue but nvm
they are going to make money from the Item selling, i even think of buying loads of them already
but just for the sales prediction, i think around 2-3 million in two months
So What Now?
3 million initially , I agree.
After that it depends on the game. We did play beta , but nobody really felt what the longevity of the game is.
If it proves to be good.
I say 8 million within a year. And this is not unreasonable because its B2P game.
3 million after the first 2 month, 6 million after a year and still selling strong.
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I am sure they will make money from item sales but there is no way anyone has a good idea what they will be.
Diablo 6m in a week... COD Black OPs made 650m worth of sales in one week or roughly 10.8m copies at $60 each.
I would say 5m in the first 2 months. I am not sure how appealing this game is to the general population of gamers.
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It will probably follow Aion's numbers +- 10%
The "free to play" (not to buy, no nitpicking ok?) model will definitely attract people who would never buy a MMORPG otherwise. I sadly predict it will also be an adolescent's xmas gift and that the community quality will take a nosedive by xmas. No credit card needed to play will make many parents accept what they would otherwise not agree with.
They will pass 2 millions the first 2 months, and definitely pass 3.5 millions by xmas, if not more.
Respect, walk
Are you talkin' to me? Are you talkin' to me?
- PANTERA at HELLFEST 2023
Not a snowballs chance in hell.
I'll sigbet you. If you lose you have to put "SWTOR is the greatest mmo ever." If I lose you can come up with something for me to put in my sig.
lol
I did make it clear it was unreasonable. But I'll put that in my sig if I'm wrong whenever they release the numbers. If I hit the long shot and it starts snowing in hell, you have to put, "GW2 WvW is not P2W."
3mil sounds realistic
4.5m in two months
3 mil it's my guess too.
Deal.
For the record I don't think GW2 is P2W.
I do think at launch that Gems can give a player an advantage in WvWvW. I don't think this will last forever though.
i put my bet on 3mil+ considering that the bet its on 2month after release of course..
3.690.723
Yeah, I don't think that's going to stop people from thinking you're a GW2 fanboy when they see that sig.
But I agree with you about WvW. In the first few weeks, buying gems and trading for gold might give a few people a head start on accessable WvW upgrades and siege equipment. Hopefully because there are full servers of people vs full servers of people, most servers will have a few of these people to help offset each other.
2 million.
I said before the hype/marketing for this game was WAY to soon and that''s is going to bite them. Notice how you don''t see any GW2 related articles on gaming websites anymore?
Hell, I don''t even remember why I''m interested in this game (not in beta )
just under 2 million.
2.55M
I do see this selling more like a single player title, due to the no sub model mostly, but I also wonder how popular this franchise really is outside of it's core audience?
GW1 sold 7 or 8 million copies across all expansions, but perhaps GW2 will be more widely received.
"True friends stab you in the front." | Oscar Wilde
"I need to finish" - Christian Wolff: The Accountant
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
Gw2 has sold around 700k already (not preorder, they bought full game), it has that many preorders too, that's 1.4 mill from the start. In the next 2 months it will sell that many more. That's 2.8 mill. My prediction.
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