I always like the comments about how "you'll always come back" and "there won't be a change because you can afford both games at the same time".
First of all, no, people won't always come back. If an expansion doesn't interest me, I'm not going to buy it just to grind more gear, and an Asian theme and Pokemon battles are not my idea of wicked-awesome.
Secondly, if I'm playing a game I enjoy vastly more than a sub game, I won't pay for that game just to have it sit there collecting dust, and there are people who share my feelings. Will it change WoW's numbers? That's what I don't know... all I do know is that I haven't seen a better alternative to WoW until GW2, and coupled with the massive popularity of GW2, that could be an important factor.
Eir_S is right, not everyone comes back, WOW has never recovered from their continual drop from 12 million subs; they just lost another 1.1 million in the last couple months. They are down globally to 9.1 million now; in NA and EU combined they prob have no more than 3-4 million subs. I just don't see how Kung Fu Panda & Pokemon can "save the day", especially with the kind of competition that is coming. SWTOR is going F2P (though very limited) and GW2 will be arriving just one month before MoP.
Agreed. I am one of those people. My wife and I will not be renewing our sub with wow; once GW2 comes out, that's our game.
As to going back to the original topic of the thread...
Blizzard is currently in a very bad situation; though they may appear to be very strong. Their "parent" company Vivendi is looking to sell at least 60% of their Blizzard stock and probably most grievous, Blizzard is becoming too dependant on WOW for overall sustainability. It's a dangerous game you play when most of your eggs are in one basket.
but GW2 will *grow* the mmo playerbase - just like wow did years ago
some players that dont like mmos will like this game
I agree, the game is the perfect hybrid between a MMO and an action MMO. It will be very easy for console gamers to migrate to GW2. The limited active skills would also make it a perfect candidate for a Xbox / Playstation port.
Originally posted by Mephster How do you know a lot of them didn't go play Diablo 3 ? First of all Wo Wplayers do not leave WoW, they go on a temporary vacation and always come back. Do you really think a theme park like GW2 who most will probably level to make within a month will have an effect on a proven mmo that has many times more the content as GW2 ? I just laugh, i do , really I do. The things that some players come up with are just insane.
Yellow: WOW players come and go, but not all come back. WOW has never recovered from the 12 million players globally it had, it also just lost 1.1 million and they are down to 9.1 million. I think it's reasonable to expect their numbers to go up with the release of MoP; for it not to would be a cataclysmic disaster for WOW. The question is, how many subs will WOW recover and for how long can they sustain these new players until they drop down again.
Blue: WOW is also a theme park. As to GW2's effect on WOW, only time will tell. Analysts predict GW2 will at least get a bit over 3 million players... again, only time will tell. I do not expect GW2 to "dethrone" WOW or to do major damage to it's sub population; however if it were to, I would be greatly surprised.
but GW2 will *grow* the mmo playerbase - just like wow did years ago
some players that dont like mmos will like this game
I agree, the game is the perfect hybrid between a MMO and an action MMO. It will be very easy for console gamers to migrate to GW2. The limited active skills would also make it a perfect candidate for a Xbox / Playstation port.
I completely agree!
I think Anet should make GW2 available to consoles; not only would it increase its playerbase (and income) drastically, but it would be a hell of a lot of fun playing GW2 on the console.
Just like Guild Wars 1, Warhammer Online, Lord of the Rings Online, Aion, ToR, Conan, Rift, Tera, The Secret World...
I'm pretty sure I'm still forgetting another dozen of them.
Truth is, WoW can only kill itself, which by the way, it's doing a good job at it for the last 2 years.
I hope Guild Wars 2 aspires to be a great game by itself, not to kill anything else - because at that it will fail misserably.
Agreed, there's no such thing as a WoW killer. People have thought so many times that this or that game will kill WoW and nothing happens. WoW is still there with a large number of subscribers.
Don't get me wrong, I particulary don't like WoW but I'm not silly enough to think this or that game will suddenly kill it.
Just like Guild Wars 1, Warhammer Online, Lord of the Rings Online, Aion, ToR, Conan, Rift, Tera, The Secret World...
I'm pretty sure I'm still forgetting another dozen of them.
Truth is, WoW can only kill itself, which by the way, it's doing a good job at it for the last 2 years.
I hope Guild Wars 2 aspires to be a great game by itself, not to kill anything else - because at that it will fail misserably.
Agreed, there's no such thing as a WoW killer. People have thought so many times that this or that game will kill WoW and nothing happens. WoW is still there with a large number of subscribers.
Don't get me wrong, I particulary don't like WoW but I'm not silly enough to think this or that game will suddenly kill it.
Agreed. WOW is doing an excellent job at killing itself. Time will tell with regards to MoP.
for chrissakes,really, who cares? unless you're a fan of that game and, even then, chances are you don't care either, because you're going to keep playing that game.
"There are at least two kinds of games. One could be called finite, the other infinite. A finite game is played for the purpose of winning, an infinite game for the purpose of continuing play." Finite and Infinite Games, James Carse
I think it's important to understand the reasons WHY GW2 will impact WoW.
The reasons are: (imho)
1. It's new and appeals to a similar gamer base
2. WoW is OLD! Many people are ready for something different.
3. Launching a month prior may make people hold off on MoP since they are already playing a new game now.
If in 1982 we played with the current mentality, we would have burned down all the pac man games since the red ghost was clearly OP. Instead we just got better at the game.
Even if activision or vivendi crashed because of a drop in the neverending gold flow that wow is, the game would go on. I t would just change owners. Does anyobody in their right mind think that wow would not find a buyer even with only half the subscripitions it actually has?
The problem is not the margin of benefit it gives (it is bloody huge). The problem is that vivendi needs even MORE.
Blizzard said most of the lost of subs was to Diablo 3.
That itself shots the theory that people will be playing 2 games at the same time many posters have here.
Of course Blizzard also said most of the losses were from the asian market where China is the biggest market but D3 wasn't released in China - that sounds akin to EA "well SWTOR wasn't that good, but they BF3!".
Currently playing: GW2 Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, 7 Wonders
I think it's important to understand the reasons WHY GW2 will impact WoW.
The reasons are: (imho)
1. It's new and appeals to a similar gamer base
2. WoW is OLD! Many people are ready for something different.
3. Launching a month prior may make people hold off on MoP since they are already playing a new game now.
Impact WOW? sure, as to how much it will impact WOW? only time will tell.
1. I agree, though I think GW2 also appeals to a whole crowd of players which I don't think WOW appeals to. GW2 is not dependant solely on WOW players for its playerbase.
2. Agreed; though that can be a double-edge sword. WOW is tried and true, people know it, many players have characters who are several years old and will be hard pressed to depart from them. WOW is old and many players (including myself) are looking for something new.
3. Anet announced the release of GW2 before Blizzard announced the release of MoP; in essence, the gamble was made by Blizzard, not necessarily by Anet.
Blizzard said most of the lost of subs was to Diablo 3.
That itself shots the theory that people will be playing 2 games at the same time many posters have here.
Of course Blizzard also said most of the losses were from the asian market where China is the biggest market but D3 wasn't released in China - that sounds akin to EA "well SWTOR wasn't that good, but they BF3!".
haha, yup, that is interesting isn't it. I guess Bio/EA is not the only company pulling stunts with regards to their subs. Though I like Anet and I can't wait to play GW2, I am afraid that Anet will also pull the same shenanigans; if their playerbase numbers end up not looking as good as expected.
I think it's important to understand the reasons WHY GW2 will impact WoW.
The reasons are: (imho)
1. It's new and appeals to a similar gamer base
2. WoW is OLD! Many people are ready for something different.
3. Launching a month prior may make people hold off on MoP since they are already playing a new game now.
#1 and #2 you can argue for any release in the past 7 years. #3 by itself is pretty weak taken by itself.
The Forbes article is more about ATV stock and its steady performance over the last three years. GW2 launch was just thrown in as an example.
WoW is more akin to Facebook or MySpace than a traditional MMO. Asking people to leave it for another new game is moot because most people play it because their friends do more than anything else. Unless ANET was going to create every single account for every WoW player, install it on their PC for them, and somehow force them to stop logging into WoW is the only way GW2 would significantly impact its playerbase. Other than that, it's a pipedream.
I think it's important to understand the reasons WHY GW2 will impact WoW.
The reasons are: (imho)
1. It's new and appeals to a similar gamer base
2. WoW is OLD! Many people are ready for something different.
3. Launching a month prior may make people hold off on MoP since they are already playing a new game now.
#1 and #2 you can argue for any release in the past 7 years. #3 by itself is pretty weak taken by itself.
The Forbes article is more about ATV stock and its steady performance over the last three years. GW2 launch was just thrown in as an example.
WoW is more akin to Facebook or MySpace than a traditional MMO. Asking people to leave it for another new game is moot because most people play it because their friends do more than anything else. Unless ANET was going to create every single account for every WoW player, install it on their PC for them, and somehow force them to stop logging into WoW is the only way GW2 would significantly impact its playerbase. Other than that, it's a pipedream.
What if i'ts a very big pipe?
I agree with you to a certain point with regards to the analogy of WOW with Facebook or MySpace. I think a lot of wow players will be hard pressed to leave wow; and would not leave it for just any game. Having said that, I think GW2 does have the potential of making an ever so small a dent in wow's playerbase. I'm not saying it will, or that GW2 will dethrone wow, but I think overall the potential is there; in the coming years (not to dethrone wow but to make a significant dent in their playerbase).
Originally posted by Illyssia I think GW2 launch is going to crucify the Panda expansion and force that company to a free-to-play model.
Doubtful. There are enough fans and people will buy anything with the Blizz logo on the box. Rift and TSW will be crucified before WoW will.
so many people just and only have ever played wow and never pay anything else than that. so no nobody is going to kill wow only blizzard at the end. and this been said many times before already.
no Forbes is not shortsighted first Vivendi the one who own 60% of Blizzard do not crae about there profites they only care about there revenue so 4.76 billion in revenue you know a good part of the is goin to go to Vivendi oevr 2 billion of it
Profit is what Blizzards get to keep out of the revenue after every one else gets paid.
Originally posted by cronius77 MOP will still be in the wet dreams of tons of wow addicts , that game has diehards and a way much larger population then other games diehards. We might see some sub lose and sales but I just cannot see any game hurting it in the short term. The thing you have to remember is a lot of the wow crowd do not like change. Ive invited friends from facebook that play wow to try out GW2 some got keys others actually purchased the game and dodge was so foreign to them and the ability to run and use your skills made them almost all go back to wow saying GW2 was the dumbest game ever. There is a mentality with wow nowadays that people just do not like change and will never find anything remotely like wow in their minds. I personally think wow is for retards (not ment offensively) its so damn easy mode that its not even remotely fun anymore. But obviously most of us here are in the minority as we dont have 9 million on this site complaining about it either.
Sorry had to pull up those two points, Dodge in GW2 is just an ability like any skill such as Disengage, Blink or Leap in WoW.... and running while using skills, have you played WoW at all?
Don't want to start a fight just felt I should point that out.
As for calling any one who plays WoW a "retard" how could I possibly take that offensively?
I'll be playing GW2 on release and also WoW:MOP, GW2 seem to lack a PvE endgame but WoW will fill that hole. I;ve tried WvWvW but the FPS lag makes it's impossble to enjoy, Anet dropped the ball when it comes to performance.
I agree with you to a certain point with regards to the analogy of WOW with Facebook or MySpace. I think a lot of wow players will be hard pressed to leave wow; and would not leave it for just any game. Having said that, I think GW2 does have the potential of making an ever so small a dent in wow's playerbase. I'm not saying it will, or that GW2 will dethrone wow, but I think overall the potential is there; in the coming years (not to dethrone wow but to make a significant dent in their playerbase).
I think if there is any decline in the next few months it will be due to all of the larger contributing factors (bad economy, oversaturated market, etc) than the launch of another title. I am extremely skeptical because with every looming MMO release, people start theorizing the same thing. Basically, odds are against it.
Edit: those same things that WORK in GW2 favor also work against pulling subs from WoW (it's B2P, etc).
Originally posted by Illyssia I think GW2 launch is going to crucify the Panda expansion and force that company to a free-to-play model.
Doubtful. There are enough fans and people will buy anything with the Blizz logo on the box. Rift and TSW will be crucified before WoW will.
I doubt Rift and TSW (although players are screaming for more ned game in TSW - so who knows) will be affected. THe games not doing well, Tera and TOR will be the ones hit the hardest.
GW2 wont be affecting anything, is a B2P MMO, probably TERA because lot of people there is just waiting for gw2, but talking about long term and in this case will be 1 month or less, people wont cancel their subs to play gw2. Not even swtor, with the announcement of the f2p option by the end of the year we will find more people playing swtor than gw2.
The panda expansion will come 1 month after gw2 release, enought time for the players to get bored without long term progression.
I agree with you to a certain point with regards to the analogy of WOW with Facebook or MySpace. I think a lot of wow players will be hard pressed to leave wow; and would not leave it for just any game. Having said that, I think GW2 does have the potential of making an ever so small a dent in wow's playerbase. I'm not saying it will, or that GW2 will dethrone wow, but I think overall the potential is there; in the coming years (not to dethrone wow but to make a significant dent in their playerbase).
I think if there is any decline in the next few months it will be due to all of the larger contributing factors (bad economy, oversaturated market, etc) than the launch of another title. I am extremely skeptical because with every looming MMO release, people start theorizing the same thing. Basically, odds are against it.
Edit: those same things that WORK in GW2 favor also work against pulling subs from WoW (it's B2P, etc).
Accordingly to Blizzard D3, a b2p game, is the main cause of WoW sub losses.
Anual pass starting to end will be the major cause of decline.
People leave WoW, play other games, but those games are WoW like but worse, so they return to WoW since there is no alternative.
GW2 is different enough, while retaining some similarity, and good enough to make some of those players not go back
Currently playing: GW2 Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, 7 Wonders
This article is pretty good and focuses on the over $$$$ of GW2 and 'THAT' other company.
Enjoy....
/em rubs hands together
Noticed the lightning flashing and the thunder booming...
GW2 will do well for a onth or two and many MMO's may see a drop in subscriptions during that time. However the after the newness wears off the content is chewded through by ravinous fans and the repition sets in so will discontent. most will simply say GW2 was a good game but got old with not enough content being added faast enough and will return to the games they previously subbed too. nothing wong with that eventually GW2 will put out a pay for expansion (if you think they are gonna put out free expansions your kidding yourself)
I'm not a WoW fan, but I seriously doubt GW2 will seel as many boxes as D3 abd we all know how that ended. However GW2 will do well aas long as the whiplash for the hype doesn't turn many fans into haters after they eat up all the content.
People need to understand that WOW can afford to lose over 8 million players before even considering F2P.
Unlike other MMO on the market, WOW doesn't need to fear 1 to 2 million drops in subscriptions.
Over the course of its life, it already recovered all of its investment and its just generating Revenue. Even with 100k subscriptions, it will still be generating Revenue for Acti-Blizzard.
You can't compare WOW to other MMO's decline of Subscription, sure it will take a chunk out of its continous stream of profit and cut down on their funds, but just do some basic calculations and you will find that they have already earn enough to last them for a long while.
Especially with Starcraft IP, Diablo IP, and the upcoming Titan, Blizzard is not a company that will be suffering for a decline of subscription in WOW.
Life is a Maze, so make sure you bring your GPS incase you get lost in it.
Comments
Eir_S is right, not everyone comes back, WOW has never recovered from their continual drop from 12 million subs; they just lost another 1.1 million in the last couple months. They are down globally to 9.1 million now; in NA and EU combined they prob have no more than 3-4 million subs. I just don't see how Kung Fu Panda & Pokemon can "save the day", especially with the kind of competition that is coming. SWTOR is going F2P (though very limited) and GW2 will be arriving just one month before MoP.
Agreed. I am one of those people. My wife and I will not be renewing our sub with wow; once GW2 comes out, that's our game.
As to going back to the original topic of the thread...
Blizzard is currently in a very bad situation; though they may appear to be very strong. Their "parent" company Vivendi is looking to sell at least 60% of their Blizzard stock and probably most grievous, Blizzard is becoming too dependant on WOW for overall sustainability. It's a dangerous game you play when most of your eggs are in one basket.
That alone makes me subscribe to the thread.
TSW - AoC - Aion - WOW - EVE - Fallen Earth - Co - Rift - || XNA C# Java Development
that Forbes article is shortsighted
Call of Duty pulled in almost half of ActivBlizzards profits (not revenue) last year
http://www.gamespot.com/news/activision-blizzard-posts-1-billion-profit-in-2011-6350085
and Call of Duty: Black Ops II is launching Nov 13th
Why Activision May Come Roaring Back
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111903940904577561372514716592.html?mod=BOL_twm_fs
EQ2 fan sites
I agree, the game is the perfect hybrid between a MMO and an action MMO. It will be very easy for console gamers to migrate to GW2. The limited active skills would also make it a perfect candidate for a Xbox / Playstation port.
Yellow: WOW players come and go, but not all come back. WOW has never recovered from the 12 million players globally it had, it also just lost 1.1 million and they are down to 9.1 million. I think it's reasonable to expect their numbers to go up with the release of MoP; for it not to would be a cataclysmic disaster for WOW. The question is, how many subs will WOW recover and for how long can they sustain these new players until they drop down again.
Blue: WOW is also a theme park. As to GW2's effect on WOW, only time will tell. Analysts predict GW2 will at least get a bit over 3 million players... again, only time will tell. I do not expect GW2 to "dethrone" WOW or to do major damage to it's sub population; however if it were to, I would be greatly surprised.
Red: *sigh
I completely agree!
I think Anet should make GW2 available to consoles; not only would it increase its playerbase (and income) drastically, but it would be a hell of a lot of fun playing GW2 on the console.
Agreed, there's no such thing as a WoW killer. People have thought so many times that this or that game will kill WoW and nothing happens. WoW is still there with a large number of subscribers.
Don't get me wrong, I particulary don't like WoW but I'm not silly enough to think this or that game will suddenly kill it.
Agreed. WOW is doing an excellent job at killing itself. Time will tell with regards to MoP.
who cares?
for chrissakes,really, who cares? unless you're a fan of that game and, even then, chances are you don't care either, because you're going to keep playing that game.
"There are at least two kinds of games.
One could be called finite, the other infinite.
A finite game is played for the purpose of winning,
an infinite game for the purpose of continuing play."
Finite and Infinite Games, James Carse
I think it's important to understand the reasons WHY GW2 will impact WoW.
The reasons are: (imho)
1. It's new and appeals to a similar gamer base
2. WoW is OLD! Many people are ready for something different.
3. Launching a month prior may make people hold off on MoP since they are already playing a new game now.
If in 1982 we played with the current mentality, we would have burned down all the pac man games since the red ghost was clearly OP. Instead we just got better at the game.
Even if activision or vivendi crashed because of a drop in the neverending gold flow that wow is, the game would go on. I t would just change owners. Does anyobody in their right mind think that wow would not find a buyer even with only half the subscripitions it actually has?
The problem is not the margin of benefit it gives (it is bloody huge). The problem is that vivendi needs even MORE.
A few things.
Blizzard said most of the lost of subs was to Diablo 3.
That itself shots the theory that people will be playing 2 games at the same time many posters have here.
Of course Blizzard also said most of the losses were from the asian market where China is the biggest market but D3 wasn't released in China - that sounds akin to EA "well SWTOR wasn't that good, but they BF3!".
Currently playing: GW2
Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, 7 Wonders
Impact WOW? sure, as to how much it will impact WOW? only time will tell.
1. I agree, though I think GW2 also appeals to a whole crowd of players which I don't think WOW appeals to. GW2 is not dependant solely on WOW players for its playerbase.
2. Agreed; though that can be a double-edge sword. WOW is tried and true, people know it, many players have characters who are several years old and will be hard pressed to depart from them. WOW is old and many players (including myself) are looking for something new.
3. Anet announced the release of GW2 before Blizzard announced the release of MoP; in essence, the gamble was made by Blizzard, not necessarily by Anet.
haha, yup, that is interesting isn't it. I guess Bio/EA is not the only company pulling stunts with regards to their subs. Though I like Anet and I can't wait to play GW2, I am afraid that Anet will also pull the same shenanigans; if their playerbase numbers end up not looking as good as expected.
#1 and #2 you can argue for any release in the past 7 years. #3 by itself is pretty weak taken by itself.
The Forbes article is more about ATV stock and its steady performance over the last three years. GW2 launch was just thrown in as an example.
WoW is more akin to Facebook or MySpace than a traditional MMO. Asking people to leave it for another new game is moot because most people play it because their friends do more than anything else. Unless ANET was going to create every single account for every WoW player, install it on their PC for them, and somehow force them to stop logging into WoW is the only way GW2 would significantly impact its playerbase. Other than that, it's a pipedream.
What if i'ts a very big pipe?
I agree with you to a certain point with regards to the analogy of WOW with Facebook or MySpace. I think a lot of wow players will be hard pressed to leave wow; and would not leave it for just any game. Having said that, I think GW2 does have the potential of making an ever so small a dent in wow's playerbase. I'm not saying it will, or that GW2 will dethrone wow, but I think overall the potential is there; in the coming years (not to dethrone wow but to make a significant dent in their playerbase).
so many people just and only have ever played wow and never pay anything else than that. so no nobody is going to kill wow only blizzard at the end. and this been said many times before already.
no Forbes is not shortsighted first Vivendi the one who own 60% of Blizzard do not crae about there profites they only care about there revenue so 4.76 billion in revenue you know a good part of the is goin to go to Vivendi oevr 2 billion of it
Profit is what Blizzards get to keep out of the revenue after every one else gets paid.
Sorry had to pull up those two points, Dodge in GW2 is just an ability like any skill such as Disengage, Blink or Leap in WoW.... and running while using skills, have you played WoW at all?
Don't want to start a fight just felt I should point that out.
As for calling any one who plays WoW a "retard" how could I possibly take that offensively?
I'll be playing GW2 on release and also WoW:MOP, GW2 seem to lack a PvE endgame but WoW will fill that hole. I;ve tried WvWvW but the FPS lag makes it's impossble to enjoy, Anet dropped the ball when it comes to performance.
I think if there is any decline in the next few months it will be due to all of the larger contributing factors (bad economy, oversaturated market, etc) than the launch of another title. I am extremely skeptical because with every looming MMO release, people start theorizing the same thing. Basically, odds are against it.
Edit: those same things that WORK in GW2 favor also work against pulling subs from WoW (it's B2P, etc).
GW2 wont be affecting anything, is a B2P MMO, probably TERA because lot of people there is just waiting for gw2, but talking about long term and in this case will be 1 month or less, people wont cancel their subs to play gw2. Not even swtor, with the announcement of the f2p option by the end of the year we will find more people playing swtor than gw2.
The panda expansion will come 1 month after gw2 release, enought time for the players to get bored without long term progression.
Accordingly to Blizzard D3, a b2p game, is the main cause of WoW sub losses.
Anual pass starting to end will be the major cause of decline.
People leave WoW, play other games, but those games are WoW like but worse, so they return to WoW since there is no alternative.
GW2 is different enough, while retaining some similarity, and good enough to make some of those players not go back
Currently playing: GW2
Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, 7 Wonders
GW2 will do well for a onth or two and many MMO's may see a drop in subscriptions during that time. However the after the newness wears off the content is chewded through by ravinous fans and the repition sets in so will discontent. most will simply say GW2 was a good game but got old with not enough content being added faast enough and will return to the games they previously subbed too. nothing wong with that eventually GW2 will put out a pay for expansion (if you think they are gonna put out free expansions your kidding yourself)
I'm not a WoW fan, but I seriously doubt GW2 will seel as many boxes as D3 abd we all know how that ended. However GW2 will do well aas long as the whiplash for the hype doesn't turn many fans into haters after they eat up all the content.
Time will tell.
People need to understand that WOW can afford to lose over 8 million players before even considering F2P.
Unlike other MMO on the market, WOW doesn't need to fear 1 to 2 million drops in subscriptions.
Over the course of its life, it already recovered all of its investment and its just generating Revenue. Even with 100k subscriptions, it will still be generating Revenue for Acti-Blizzard.
You can't compare WOW to other MMO's decline of Subscription, sure it will take a chunk out of its continous stream of profit and cut down on their funds, but just do some basic calculations and you will find that they have already earn enough to last them for a long while.
Especially with Starcraft IP, Diablo IP, and the upcoming Titan, Blizzard is not a company that will be suffering for a decline of subscription in WOW.
Life is a Maze, so make sure you bring your GPS incase you get lost in it.