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Can Guild Wars 2 change the market?
blognorg
Member UncommonPosts: 643
GW2 seems to be taking some steps ways from the standard AAA formula, so what's going to happen to the formula if it is really successful? Will companies start shameless copy/pasting DEs instead of linear questing? Or will developers be inspired to start trying other ideas to break the mould?
On the flip-side, what if it's a flop? Not to say that TSW and TERA are flops, but they certainly won't influence the market in the way the GW2 will. And if all three die, will it send the message there change is bad... or that games are just not changing enough?
Whether you like Guild Wars 2 or not, you have to admit that it's the heaviest hitter in this pivotal time for MMOs.
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This doom and gloom thread was brought to you by Chin Up the new ultra high caffeine soft drink for gamers who just need that boost of happiness after a long forum session.
Guild Wars 1 was surprise hit. GW2 is hyped to high heaven, and the market is in a different place now. I'm not saying the it will single-handedly change the market; I'm suggesting that it may just be the straw. WoW is hemorrhaging subs, and SWTOR is going FTP in less than a year. The market is clearly swaying from that type of game. That could just mean that people are looking for something radically different (which GW2 isn't), but I suspect that its success on either end of the spectrum will influence future games. That being said, I think it will have the least impact if it's just mildly successful.
You mean, cheanges from the WoW formula, or the "golden age" formula?
Are you kidding? Subs haven't been this low in four years.
So you could say the markets already changing even before GW2 is released? so GW2 as we've said GW2 will have no effect just lkikie GW had no effect on the market as a whole.
Personally I feel that GW2's biggest assets are its biggest downfall, going out on a limb is risky and players really don't like that much change in one go so wait for the qq'ing all over the forums about missing features. SW:TOR got absolutely canned for not having certain features that are in other MMO's and thats a so called "WoW Clone". The entertainment value after GW2 is released and the penny drops about the gem system, lack of traditional endgame, PvP'ers always whinge so wait for them to call foul of WvWvW, DE's not really being dynamic and ultimately players will get bored quickly just like with War and Rift, the list of things to qq about is seemingly endless and people will qq as its never going to live up to the hype genreated by this community. Also it will sell well but not in the numbers fans are hoping if Bioware + Star Wars can only sell 2.5 milion copies GW2 which is unheard of outside the MMO fraternity will not come close, I don't see a massive advertsising campaign 2 weeks out like what SW:TOR had and AN know this thats why it has a full F2p shop in at launch and they'll probably release content packs pretty quickly. There's a reason Blizzard picked the date to released MOP at one month after GW2 releases they think its only worth a months of anyones time just right for the community to pick up MOP when they are bored.
This doom and gloom thread was brought to you by Chin Up the new ultra high caffeine soft drink for gamers who just need that boost of happiness after a long forum session.
Either way, I'm not sure if that's happening. If GW2 tanks, it might be the final message sent for AAA studios to jump ship on the market. Once WoW crumbles down to the sea, the MMO undustry might just belong to a bevy of F2P games instead of one giant.
I dont think they will but they should, most companies are lazy to craft such immersive content.
It is just easier to add filler content with huge walls of text till 'max_level-1' and put repetitive raids and tier based gears at max level. Also a crappy macro / rotation based combat.
But it is no surprise that, that system is vanishing slowly.
So? It's an old game, they lose subs. Just because it's subs are lower than before doesn't mean there's some sort of mass exodus going on. Subs have been lower the whole expansion. They will continue to decrease probably, but nothing compared to the amount the MMO of the month loses.
If you want to call something "hemorrhaging subs" refer to how many players SWTOR lost in under a year... four fifths.
Blizzard PR defence activate! Rofl. Maybe I'm reading too much into things.
It definitely changed the market. Even WoW is trying to use their phasing technology to created Dynamic events. I'm talking about the 5 man - no party setup required content that is being introduced with MoP.
Smaller phased activites that can be done by a group of 5 of any classes - phasing out trinity? Encouraging group play? Challenge missions - standardised gear to see how fast you can do a dungeon?
They all smell like GW1/GW2 inspired features to me.
Play for fun. Play to win. Play for perfection. Play with friends. Play in another world. Why do you play?
My argument wasn't that it will or won't succeed, but rather how it'll shape the market. Every game does it to some extent, but GW2 will be the biggest new launch this year. It's marketing itself as being different, as did TERA and TSW. If it fails, what kind of message will that send? Hell, SWTOR going F2P within a year sent a message; I honestly doubt we'll see anymore AAA WoW clones. If GW2 is a massive hit, I guarantee that companies will be paying attention. Big publishers are probably a little confused about the MMO market right now, and GW2 is THE game to watch for anyone involved in the industry at the moment. If it tanks, companies are going to notice, more so than with some of the other recently.
I never said that was bad.
The discussion topic - is/has gw2 changed the market?
My answer is yes if WoW is copying them. If WoW is copying them then they have a good idea. An idea that influenced the market. I would not be surprised if WoW suddenly allowed players to send materials to the bank.
Actually I would be surprised because that's a feature that saves time, not extends it.
Play for fun. Play to win. Play for perfection. Play with friends. Play in another world. Why do you play?
WoW, in two year, have lost more subs that all of the P2P games' total subs combined. I'd say that's hemorrhaging. It's still numbers lost, regardless of what the reason is. Not to mention that 1.2 million of those are locked in for a year. That means that the 9.1 mil is kind of a fudged number.
When they lose 80% of their players in under a year I'll start to worry for them.
Also, the actual amount in solid numbers is useless... they have many more players playing, so they have many more to lose.
This +100!
Done that hamster wheel in wow for a few years! Tired of it and it's Bastered children (clones) Thanks Bobby you're doing great! Only thing that is going to kill wow isn't GW2 it'll be that fat butterball Called Bobby Kotick!
Below is where we can disscuss and come up with new ideas for Sandparks!
http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/post/5164689#5164689
A change all by its self... no
What it can do, like all the other MMOs before it is highlight that there are different ways of doing it... and hopefully help present some further iterations to help keep things moving forward in MMOs the way they have in the last 2 years...
No it wont be the new WoW same as all the others wont, but it will carve out its niche same as all the others are....
They didn't take popular features because where are the old school world bosses? Skill based PvP not Rock>Paper>Scissors? Useful crafting?
What they did good was take a huge IP and added some solo stuff! WoW was still built upon hardcore players and elitists.
Below is where we can disscuss and come up with new ideas for Sandparks!
http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/post/5164689#5164689
GW2 will change the way people look at BtP for sure, just look at WoW for example.
Dragonsoul is already 8 months old and no new contend update whatsover for all those players paying 13 euro a month.
GW2 is buy to play and normaly it would be Pay to Win, in this case anet shows no to the world and lays down a tripple A product alongside WOW subscription based mmo and might kick Blizzard in the nuts and pull out a long middle finger.
They show the mmo market how shit needs to get done without milking out their playerbase and when they succeed many will follow their lead.
But the game needs to be good and not a fail product like SWTOR.
People ask many times if it will be a wow killer, and i might begin to think that Arenanet shows their product is a Subscription killer.
Time will tell offcourse, but you cant fool me that WoW players are happy with paying a monthly sub for no contend whatsover and then also need to pay for a expansion.
Wont change a thing..
Let's play Fallen Earth (blind, 300 episodes)
Let's play Guild Wars 2 (blind, 45 episodes)
Main MMO at the moment: Guild Wars 2
Waiting for: Pathfinder Online