sub-only MMO further declines (not surprising)

nariusseldon

http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/107218/video-game-retail-sales-decline-digital-up-in-july

"Subscription based MMO revenues declined 9.0% on a monthly basis to $76.0 million. Subscriber base declined to 5.8 million from 6.3 million in June. This was much anticipated due to the loss of 600K subscribers for Activision’s World of Warcrafts (WoW) in the recently concluded quarter."

9% loss on a month basis ... it does not look good.

"Free-to-play subscriber base slightly declined to 45.8 million from 46 million in June. Average revenue per user (“ARPU”) was approximately $40 much higher than $27 reported in June."

Guess the whales are paying more.

But that is not the point. The point is that sub-only MMOs are probably going to be dead soon.

 

Markusrind

Mixed news for me.

I love F2P games because I get to play games for free. If others are happy to spend their money for me to play for free then I am fine with it. I do not pay for fluff and am quite happy to play as long as I am having fun.

But my prefered way of playing a game is to sub to it. I feel better paying a monthly fee for some reason and in part because I do feel it is a good way of keeping the dedicated gamers together and keeping mindless hoarde away from the game.

Now if we could have F2P games without getting nickel and dimed and that keeps the mindless masses away...you would get my money regularly.

Sephastus

3rd or 4th post about this same "Sub based, vs other" in 10 minutes...

 

It is not a "sub-only" game decline... it is a WoW decline. Since their population is huge, changes in their gamers looks like it affect the entire gaming world. All other sub based games could be getting more subscribers, but a big decline in WoW membership will make it look as if the whole payment method is going south.

 

But hey, if you want to spin things your way and ignore certain realities, be my guest... you are granted that liberty... however your reality cannot substitute actual reality.

SnarlingWolf

Things go in cycles.

 

People think F2P is better because they believe they can get a solid experience without paying. Yet as you posted (I didn't read the link so I am assuming what you posted is correct) the average amount paid per "free" player is $40.

 

Companies will continue to make it harder, and likely impossible, to get a good experience without paying. They will also continue to milk the whales and also will likely make things more pay 2 win, pay for advantage, etc. as they find more and more ways to increase their profits.

 

It will hit a point where players will start wanting everything for a set price and the cycle will reverse. Look at how many other services have actually changed over to a one price for everything model. The gaming world is one of the few going in the other direction.

 

When gamers are dumb enough to fall for a match 3 candy game (where both match 3 and even match 3 with candy pieces have existed for a long time and can either be bought for a couple of bucks or played for free with ads) convincing them to pay so much to play such a simple "f2p" game that they were making something like $400,000 a day from their "free" players, well the near term future of gaming looks bad for everyone else who used to enjoy a solid game with no roadblocks because they bought the whole thing up front.

stevebombsquad

Originally posted by nariusseldon

http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/107218/video-game-retail-sales-decline-digital-up-in-july

"Subscription based MMO revenues declined 9.0% on a monthly basis to $76.0 million. Subscriber base declined to 5.8 million from 6.3 million in June. This was much anticipated due to the loss of 600K subscribers for Activision’s World of Warcrafts (WoW) in the recently concluded quarter."

9% loss on a month basis ... it does not look good.

"Free-to-play subscriber base slightly declined to 45.8 million from 46 million in June. Average revenue per user (“ARPU”) was approximately $40 much higher than $27 reported in June."

Guess the whales are paying more.

But that is not the point. The point is that sub-only MMOs are probably going to be dead soon.

 

That is why the next three major AAA MMOs are all sub based: ESO, FF14, and WS..... Keep dreaming pal. Quality gaming is still going to require a sub.

Keldor837

You're only looking at the reported data and not the grand picture. I haven't been playing any f2p or p2p games this summer outside of my usual league of legends games. Simply because i, like many others, have been beta testing all summer. Any game which claims to be even in open beta is not included in such earning reports. Thus the reason why f2p games stay in that "fake" open beta mode for as long as they do. To stay out of such earning reports until their numbers are up and the game bugs have been addressed. I've been playing Mechwarrior, Firefall, ESO, and FFXIV all summer as many others have been playing games which are in beta in one form or another. Numbers always go down during the summer if a new game isn't released since people are out and about more and waiting for the new releases in the fall/winter.

Keldor837

The "average" f2p game costs $20 a month and up to play them at a competitive end-game capacity. Most people don't realize that they're going to spend more in the long run with most f2p titles if they're going to play through all the content and join end-game. Either invest in the game with a p2p or b2p and progress with everyone and be as good as the people you play with are. Or get in a game for free and pay more in the long run and be as good as your money will allow you to be. That's what it breaks down as.

VikingGamer

Simply put, I would much rather pay $30-$60 upfront and $15 a month to access a good game that is not plagued with a cash shop, rather than pay $15 a month to unlock the "make it not suck" features as well as needing to pay $20 for a bag, $30 for a mount and other such "conveniences" which are little more than design flaws (which they control) that we are now expected to buy a fix (which they make) for.

GeezerGamer

Originally posted by nariusseldon

http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/107218/video-game-retail-sales-decline-digital-up-in-july

"Subscription based MMO revenues declined 9.0% on a monthly basis to $76.0 million. Subscriber base declined to 5.8 million from 6.3 million in June. This was much anticipated due to the loss of 600K subscribers for Activision’s World of Warcrafts (WoW) in the recently concluded quarter."

9% loss on a month basis ... it does not look good.

"Free-to-play subscriber base slightly declined to 45.8 million from 46 million in June. Average revenue per user (“ARPU”) was approximately $40 much higher than $27 reported in June."

Guess the whales are paying more.

But that is not the point. The point is that sub-only MMOs are probably going to be dead soon.

 

When that happens, I'm sure I'll be playing a p2p sub only game. FF14 will be around for a long time.

nariusseldon

Originally posted by stevebombsquad

 

That is why the next three major AAA MMOs are all sub based: ESO, FF14, and WS..... Keep dreaming pal. Quality gaming is still going to require a sub.

I am not worried. They will go F2P sooner or later.

Plus, EQN is not going to be sub-only.

 

teakbois2112

Originally posted by nariusseldon

http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/107218/video-game-retail-sales-decline-digital-up-in-july

"Subscription based MMO revenues declined 9.0% on a monthly basis to $76.0 million. Subscriber base declined to 5.8 million from 6.3 million in June. This was much anticipated due to the loss of 600K subscribers for Activision’s World of Warcrafts (WoW) in the recently concluded quarter."

9% loss on a month basis ... it does not look good.

"Free-to-play subscriber base slightly declined to 45.8 million from 46 million in June. Average revenue per user (“ARPU”) was approximately $40 much higher than $27 reported in June."

Guess the whales are paying more.

But that is not the point. The point is that sub-only MMOs are probably going to be dead soon.

 

Think about how the part in red makes absolutely no sense.  What caused this massive, 50% increase in ARPU?  To me it shows a major inconsistency with the number gathering because there is no way it rose that much in one month with such a huge player base.

Also the free to play user base has very little to do with MMORPGs and much more to do with Zynga games and probably include MOBAs too.

This is most definitely an Apples to Oranges comparison.

Kevyne-Shandris

Originally posted by nariusseldon

http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/107218/video-game-retail-sales-decline-digital-up-in-july

"Subscription based MMO revenues declined 9.0% on a monthly basis to $76.0 million. Subscriber base declined to 5.8 million from 6.3 million in June. This was much anticipated due to the loss of 600K subscribers for Activision’s World of Warcrafts (WoW) in the recently concluded quarter."

That's due to the lack of content with 5.3 and PvP changes. Folks took their breaks to play LoL and other titles (I was playing EvE during 5.3). They're starting to come back for 5.4 as it's the final tier (5.5 is a maybe), seeing old faces return now.

nariusseldon

Originally posted by teakbois2112

Originally posted by nariusseldon

http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/107218/video-game-retail-sales-decline-digital-up-in-july

"Subscription based MMO revenues declined 9.0% on a monthly basis to $76.0 million. Subscriber base declined to 5.8 million from 6.3 million in June. This was much anticipated due to the loss of 600K subscribers for Activision’s World of Warcrafts (WoW) in the recently concluded quarter."

9% loss on a month basis ... it does not look good.

"Free-to-play subscriber base slightly declined to 45.8 million from 46 million in June. Average revenue per user (“ARPU”) was approximately $40 much higher than $27 reported in June."

Guess the whales are paying more.

But that is not the point. The point is that sub-only MMOs are probably going to be dead soon.

 

Think about how the part in red makes absolutely no sense.  What caused this massive, 50% increase in ARPU?  To me it shows a major inconsistency with the number gathering because there is no way it rose that much in one month with such a huge player base.

Also the free to play user base has very little to do with MMORPGs and much more to do with Zynga games and probably include MOBAs too.

This is most definitely an Apples to Oranges comparison.

May be they get more whales. May be they found a way to get the whales to pay more. Who knows?

But the point of the post is not what happen with F2P. It is what happen with sub-only MMOs .. they are in big declines.

Look at numbers like this, do you think it will take long for the last sub-only MMos to turn f2p or b2p.

nariusseldon

Originally posted by UNATCOII

Originally posted by nariusseldon

http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/107218/video-game-retail-sales-decline-digital-up-in-july

"Subscription based MMO revenues declined 9.0% on a monthly basis to $76.0 million. Subscriber base declined to 5.8 million from 6.3 million in June. This was much anticipated due to the loss of 600K subscribers for Activision’s World of Warcrafts (WoW) in the recently concluded quarter."

That's due to the lack of content with 5.3 and PvP changes. Folks took their breaks to play LoL and other titles (I was playing EvE during 5.3). They're starting to come back for 5.4 as it's the final tier (5.5 is a maybe), seeing old faces return now.

Wow has declined from a high point of 12M subs to less than 8M now. That is a decrease of 1/3. The release of new content did not stop the decline. I doubt it will now.

But of course no one knows for sure. I would bet money on it though.

 

Keldor837

It's as if everything i posted earlier about the MMO's that are in beta and the fact that ITS SUMMER taking away from subs and f2p markets had no impact at all on some of you. If you intend on ignoring objective points of view which don't fit within your logic. Then you're only showing that you're ignorant to any facts beyond those that matter to you and that you're incapable of holding an intellectual debate. If that's the case, then you've defeated yourself since you're showing that you can't defend your point of view or simply won't acknowledge that you may have a fault in your point.

Kevyne-Shandris

---

Originally posted by nariusseldon
I am not worried. They will go F2P sooner or later.Plus, EQN is not going to be sub-only.

---

EQNext isn't going totally F2P either. They'll have a hybrid pay model. Much like EvE.

So, subs aren't dying.

F2P is a fad, as soon as the kids learn that you get what you pay for...literally.

tommygunzII

Those numbers are about to change OP.

GeezerGamer

I love this term "Whale" It's great. That means you are either a whale or you are whale food. If there ins't enough food, whales move on to new feeding grounds.

 

 

Piechunks

I think the sub is worth it for the better community.

Every f2p/b2p game has been a nightmare since I left sub-fee games.

People used to make fun of WoWs community for being young and stupid, but the new titles have shown that things are far, far worse when you have a collection of individuals that either lack the inclination, or the means to pay.

 

 

nariusseldon

Originally posted by VikingGamer

 

Yes, so little self-control that I have a paid off car, a paid off motorcycle and a paid off house and no credit debt.

Do you get the same amount of fun for free? or do you get a broken game for free? Playable sure, but still essentially broken. I like to play a game the way it was designed to be played not artificially hobbled so as to be only minimally enjoyable.

And you might be having trouble finishing that content because they are trying to encourage you to buy an exp booster.

Yeah .. apparently you have self-control on other stuff, but not video games. Otherwise, why would you think that you need to spend money on F2P games?

Yes, i got the same amount of fun. If not, why would i even play it? If a game is broken, how can i even play it?

And yeah, there may be a pay wall. But so what? I am gone and move onto another game way before that happens. And strangely, you can finish the story content without paying for many games (STO and Marvel Heroes for example).

I finished Marvel Heroes main story content. 30 hours of fun, Free. It was great (if you like that kind of game, of course).

nariusseldon

Originally posted by GeezerGamer

I love this term "Whale" It's great. That means you are either a whale or you are whale food. If there ins't enough food, whales move on to new feeding grounds.

 

 

Not if you play the game solo and don't interact with whales.

They can't really 'eat' you in a pve game, anyway.

 

GeezerGamer

Originally posted by nariusseldon

Originally posted by GeezerGamer

I love this term "Whale" It's great. That means you are either a whale or you are whale food. If there ins't enough food, whales move on to new feeding grounds.

 

 

Not if you play the game solo and don't interact with whales.

They can't really 'eat' you in a pve game, anyway.

 

The point remains. If there is no food, the whales move on.

TheRealDarkeus

Sub is not dead yet.  Ask me in about a year - year and a half thought because these new sub games will have had some time to be out. 

nariusseldon

Originally posted by Piechunks

I think the sub is worth it for the better community.

Every f2p/b2p game has been a nightmare since I left sub-fee games.

People used to make fun of WoWs community for being young and stupid, but the new titles have shown that things are far, far worse when you have a collection of individuals that either lack the inclination, or the means to pay.

 

 

Why do you leave then?

Personally i don't play games for community. And i am having lots of fun playing F2P games without paying a cent. But that is just me.

Some f2p games even have unique IPs (like Star Trek) that you cannot get in a sub-only game.

c0exist

Originally posted by nariusseldon

Originally posted by VikingGamer

 

Yes, so little self-control that I have a paid off car, a paid off motorcycle and a paid off house and no credit debt.

Do you get the same amount of fun for free? or do you get a broken game for free? Playable sure, but still essentially broken. I like to play a game the way it was designed to be played not artificially hobbled so as to be only minimally enjoyable.

And you might be having trouble finishing that content because they are trying to encourage you to buy an exp booster.

Yeah .. apparently you have self-control on other stuff, but not video games. Otherwise, why would you think that you need to spend money on F2P games?

Yes, i got the same amount of fun. If not, why would i even play it? If a game is broken, how can i even play it?

And yeah, there may be a pay wall. But so what? I am gone and move onto another game way before that happens. And strangely, you can finish the story content without paying for many games (STO and Marvel Heroes for example).

I finished Marvel Heroes main story content. 30 hours of fun, Free. It was great (if you like that kind of game, of course).

 I have a serious question for you, where do you get off thinking you are entitled to free entertainment on someone elses dollar?  being the other players or the game developers.  I wont even walk into a gas station to use the bathroom without buying something after out of respect to the establishment.

teakbois2112

Originally posted by nariusseldon

Originally posted by teakbois2112

Originally posted by nariusseldon

http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/107218/video-game-retail-sales-decline-digital-up-in-july

"Subscription based MMO revenues declined 9.0% on a monthly basis to $76.0 million. Subscriber base declined to 5.8 million from 6.3 million in June. This was much anticipated due to the loss of 600K subscribers for Activision’s World of Warcrafts (WoW) in the recently concluded quarter."

9% loss on a month basis ... it does not look good.

"Free-to-play subscriber base slightly declined to 45.8 million from 46 million in June. Average revenue per user (“ARPU”) was approximately $40 much higher than $27 reported in June."

Guess the whales are paying more.

But that is not the point. The point is that sub-only MMOs are probably going to be dead soon.

 

Think about how the part in red makes absolutely no sense.  What caused this massive, 50% increase in ARPU?  To me it shows a major inconsistency with the number gathering because there is no way it rose that much in one month with such a huge player base.

Also the free to play user base has very little to do with MMORPGs and much more to do with Zynga games and probably include MOBAs too.

This is most definitely an Apples to Oranges comparison.

May be they get more whales. May be they found a way to get the whales to pay more. Who knows?

But the point of the post is not what happen with F2P. It is what happen with sub-only MMOs .. they are in big declines.

Look at numbers like this, do you think it will take long for the last sub-only MMos to turn f2p or b2p.

Where is the evidence that f2p based MMORPGs didnt decline as well though?  That 45 million is mostly zynga and (probably) LoL and not real MMORPGs.