clarify: no missing zero - im guestimating half million
I think you are right on the money.
About the same amount of hype as Rift, probably a little less, and Rift was around 600k or so.
Initial sales are nice, but its retention thats important. Just ask Rift.
Rift had 99 servers at launch, this thing has 22 servers world wide.
22 servers meaning a maximum capacity of around 80.000 players concurrently or 250.000 total.
That's simple math and the average of fantasy based numbers for a normal server play.
So they hardly passed 200-250 K vs the 600-800K Rift was boosting.
It shows pretty much that MMO's are "out" these days. Ever since SWTOR fell flat on its subscription nose, the game will be free to play in a matter of months.
As long as these things cater for the SAME bored WOW players they' ll loose players faster than snow smelts for the sun at 90°.
btw Rift is now down to 15 servers worldwide, that's a loss of over 85% in just 3 years time... including the step to F2P. One can only wonder how many servers would be left if Rift still had fixed subscriptions ...Probably a single figure ...
More icing to the cake of tiring copycat MMO's I guess.
All this is leading to nothing really. Until someone comes along that combines open world play with huge risky economies and massive new tools (like 3D helmets etc...) this is a dead's end factory.
Let's face it: the best Fantasy MMO was launched back in 2004 by Blizzard and ever since people have been forking out money to try to play the same thing. Fruitless efforts.
Even this site is just a shallow form of these Glory days in the mid 00's. No longer do they display log in members. Sometimes it takes ages before forum posts are refreshed and no one had to include DOTA games or hack slah to still get some visitors back then.
Game is over for the masses, what you have is some frustrated dudes trying to like what they once lost.
Your server based estimate of players is not accurate - they can do a lot nowadays to boost server populations by using different virtual servers to run different zones. GW2 for example has 'servers' but during events people get thrown into different zones. This game has hit written all over it.
The problem with sandbox games is that no one has figured out how to make a better game then EVE which frankly is boring to most normal people.
Originally posted by Knotwood If this game went free to play or buy to play like defiance, I could see this game getting 3 million players at its peak.
Arent you the one who said about ESO 10 million sales?
All Time Favorites: EQ1, WoW, EvE, GW1 Playing Now: WoW, ESO, GW2
Originally posted by Jimmy562 I think this is one of the few games that may actually grow from stable numbers rather than launching with millions and dropping off.
LOL!!!!!! Yeah, and I would like to win the lottery. WS is going after a very niche crowd, while it might be successful but no way hell will it reach millions when no MMO has ever achieved that minus the MMO giants. WS will have a stable pop but only that if they can even maintain that by the end of the year. The game isn't innovative nor revolutionary sine the are sticking to age old formulas and have a bit of arrogance. Blizzard went away from certain concepts and for good reason which Carbine seems to think that is what the MMO consumer population wants.
Cartbine isn't going for a niche crowd, its going lock stock and barrel for the WOW crowd Its just not patronising the player base by suggesting they don't have skills to progress without a campaign of nerfing of content on a schedule. Kind of like the old days, you pick up a game, you get better and better, you get satisfaction of progress.
Considering the game plays like Wow but in an entire new world, with enough difference to make it different, I would say its future as assured . The discussion about who 'wins' who has the 'mmo-crown' who has most subs etc etc is forum fodder and the realm of the unhappy, the rest of us play games.
rpg/mmorg history: Dun Darach>Bloodwych>Bards Tale 1-3>Eye of the beholder > Might and Magic 2,3,5 > FFVII> Baldur's Gate 1, 2 > Planescape Torment >Morrowind > WOW > oblivion > LOTR > Guild Wars (1900hrs elementalist) Vanguard. > GW2(1000 elementalist), Wildstar
Good joke OP and a not so nice stab at another newly launched mmORPG;;;
But ....
If anything it shows MMORPG's are in a downward trend since SWTOR.
250-500K ?
Those figures were already reached when LOTRO launched and Conan and Warhammer dwarfed these numbers totally.
WHAT HAPPENED ?
People are fed up with playing the same game.
The best fantasy MMORPG was published back in 2004 and it was called WOW.
NCSoft publishes every 2 years another MMORPG, others do the same.
The problem is that these things try to get to the spill overs of WOW bored people.
The problem is that they fish in the same pool. As soon as a new game is launched everyone jumps to the "next one" for 3 months...
SO ...They fail after just a few months to keep subscriptions. And so the complete industry came into a nose dive.
It won't be better. Not after a complete overhaul of on line gaming and ... nope that overhaul's future is not DOTA games either (they are much too narrow both in players as in content). I don't believe shit about those 67 M self declared LOL players. Accounts uniquely created yes, but active players nope (my dog could create a LOL or WOT account too).
EDIT/ I just counted 22 worldwide servers for Wildstar. That means around 250K-400K players capacity in present day technology.
Again very troubling that 6 years ago both AOC and WAR launched with double/triple that number...
Nobody wants to talk about this. Even The Secret World sold 500k copies...
I disagree. WoW was a clone of the best Fantasy MMO ever, EQ, launched in 1999. I don't see why people think a clone cannot succeed just because 'it's been done.' I mean, I realize we all want the next-gen MMO idea, but to ignore history is unproductive.
Comments
I think you are right on the money.
About the same amount of hype as Rift, probably a little less, and Rift was around 600k or so.
Initial sales are nice, but its retention thats important. Just ask Rift.
Rift had 99 servers at launch, this thing has 22 servers world wide.
22 servers meaning a maximum capacity of around 80.000 players concurrently or 250.000 total.
That's simple math and the average of fantasy based numbers for a normal server play.
So they hardly passed 200-250 K vs the 600-800K Rift was boosting.
It shows pretty much that MMO's are "out" these days. Ever since SWTOR fell flat on its subscription nose, the game will be free to play in a matter of months.
As long as these things cater for the SAME bored WOW players they' ll loose players faster than snow smelts for the sun at 90°.
btw Rift is now down to 15 servers worldwide, that's a loss of over 85% in just 3 years time... including the step to F2P. One can only wonder how many servers would be left if Rift still had fixed subscriptions ...Probably a single figure ...
More icing to the cake of tiring copycat MMO's I guess.
All this is leading to nothing really. Until someone comes along that combines open world play with huge risky economies and massive new tools (like 3D helmets etc...) this is a dead's end factory.
Let's face it: the best Fantasy MMO was launched back in 2004 by Blizzard and ever since people have been forking out money to try to play the same thing. Fruitless efforts.
Even this site is just a shallow form of these Glory days in the mid 00's. No longer do they display log in members. Sometimes it takes ages before forum posts are refreshed and no one had to include DOTA games or hack slah to still get some visitors back then.
Game is over for the masses, what you have is some frustrated dudes trying to like what they once lost.
Your server based estimate of players is not accurate - they can do a lot nowadays to boost server populations by using different virtual servers to run different zones. GW2 for example has 'servers' but during events people get thrown into different zones. This game has hit written all over it.
The problem with sandbox games is that no one has figured out how to make a better game then EVE which frankly is boring to most normal people.
Arent you the one who said about ESO 10 million sales?
All Time Favorites: EQ1, WoW, EvE, GW1
Playing Now: WoW, ESO, GW2
LOL!!!!!! Yeah, and I would like to win the lottery. WS is going after a very niche crowd, while it might be successful but no way hell will it reach millions when no MMO has ever achieved that minus the MMO giants. WS will have a stable pop but only that if they can even maintain that by the end of the year. The game isn't innovative nor revolutionary sine the are sticking to age old formulas and have a bit of arrogance. Blizzard went away from certain concepts and for good reason which Carbine seems to think that is what the MMO consumer population wants.
Cartbine isn't going for a niche crowd, its going lock stock and barrel for the WOW crowd Its just not patronising the player base by suggesting they don't have skills to progress without a campaign of nerfing of content on a schedule. Kind of like the old days, you pick up a game, you get better and better, you get satisfaction of progress.
Considering the game plays like Wow but in an entire new world, with enough difference to make it different, I would say its future as assured . The discussion about who 'wins' who has the 'mmo-crown' who has most subs etc etc is forum fodder and the realm of the unhappy, the rest of us play games.
rpg/mmorg history: Dun Darach>Bloodwych>Bards Tale 1-3>Eye of the beholder > Might and Magic 2,3,5 > FFVII> Baldur's Gate 1, 2 > Planescape Torment >Morrowind > WOW > oblivion > LOTR > Guild Wars (1900hrs elementalist) Vanguard. > GW2(1000 elementalist), Wildstar
Now playing GW2, AOW 3, ESO, LOTR, Elite D
Nobody wants to talk about this. Even The Secret World sold 500k copies...
Warhammer had 500,000 registered copies their first week
http://gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=20414
AOC 400,000 registered accounts in first week
http://www.abnnewswire.net/press/en/52437/Funcom.html
Secret World - 200,000
http://www.gamespot.com/articles/the-secret-world-sells-200000/1100-6393715/
EQ2 fan sites
I disagree. WoW was a clone of the best Fantasy MMO ever, EQ, launched in 1999. I don't see why people think a clone cannot succeed just because 'it's been done.' I mean, I realize we all want the next-gen MMO idea, but to ignore history is unproductive.
That's just, like, my opinion, man.