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http://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/discussion/137279/1-2-million-subscribers/p1
ESO is sitting at #11 revenue earned, with 111 million.
“Also, its new title Hearthstone managed to come in at No. 10,” said van Druenen. “That is ahead of titles like Elder Scrolls Online ($111M) and Star Wars: The Old Republic ($106M).”
OP of the official forums thread did some forum math and pegged ESO around 1.2 million subs.
Comments
Well world of warcraft, maplestory and lineage 1 I guess are the only mmo games in that top 10 list.. the others are all single match type games and not mmos...
I wish someone would do a proper MMO version of that.
The OP chose to ignore the money from boxed sales. This puts the subs at 450-900k (depending on churn). This is still really good, but more indicative of strong box sales, and then the normal drop off.
Well can't argue against the facts now can we?
(yes that's sarcasm)
The small print:
Revenues based on approximate share of the worldwide market ...
revenue data based on the spending data we collect from developers, publishers and payment service providers totalling 37 million unique paying gamers across digital platforms. A guess brought to you by SuperData.
And in case anyone is under any illusion that this data is coming from the likes of EA, Activision etc. the release of such information would be illegal in the period running up to their results announcement.
Make of the data what you will but don't treat this as "definitive" or "strong evidence" one way or another. A percentage of those "37M" have triggered a TESO flag. And that has been factored up to give this value.
Edit: and as far as the comparison with WoW goes the $728M for WoW is reported as "in game spending". To quote the article: "The Blizzard mmo game made only around $213M last year from in-game spending throughout all of last year, and it has more than tripled that total just through the nine months of this year". So not from subs ......
As hard as you try to make it out to be a successful game, TESO is far from it. And deep down you know it. Why do you even bother OP. You keep using XFire/Raptr and SuperData which claims to have real numbers.
The fact of the matter is that Bethesda is privately held company with no public earnings reports unless they are super successful, like Skyrim for example.
The fact of the matter is that they were fast to showoff with 5 million beta registrations, but after the launch they are silent in the moneymaking department as ever. This only means one thing and one thing only. Even if it is a success, it is a subpar success and not what the company had hoped for.
And there is a reason for that. This is just plain old themepark MMO with a little bit better combat than WoW and better more realistic graphics. But it still feels like WoW. This is not Elder Scrolls game.
Looking forward to your posts once the console release is out (if ever)
You call that a guess? Maybe with your evident analytical prowess you should go into business. Give it a shot. Tell us how it goes.
It's how all projections work: you take sample data and project. Businesses and governments make decisions every day based on similar data.
There's this science you may have heard of behind all of this. It's called statistics.
“Microtransactions? In a single player role-playing game? Are you nuts?”
― CD PROJEKT RED
lol
They don't need statistics. They don't like something, therefore everyone else doesn't like it, and therefore it's a failure.
Science!
I actually updated my post to make you lol less.
I like your sarcasm, but you couldn't be more wrong.
TESO is underperforming game. That is a fact, no need for science.
If you find it fun, play it, but don't make it out something that it isn't.
Your game doesn't need to have WoW's success to be fun. I hate minecraft .. but i acknowledge the fact that its a worldwide success with millions of copies sold around the globe.
If you are looking for something to justify the 15$/mo subscription fee, don't come up with false numbers
You should consider a career in preaching. Your kind of faith-based certainty is rare these days. I hear that Pastaferians are recruiting:
“Microtransactions? In a single player role-playing game? Are you nuts?”
― CD PROJEKT RED
So,
Where is ZM's official announcement showing ESO closing in on the top 10?
I've never even heard of number 2 and 3 games on that list.
Oh and, "Top 10 MMO's" hahaha. Some little games with few guys skirmishing in a small isolated map, an MMO, yeah right...
So your definition of "Success" is WoW. So there are no other games on the market which are successful. Well, I guess people should just stop making MMOs and subscribe to WoW instead.
Even if they had a half million subscribers, that'd be a wildly successful game. You seem to think that developers and publishers are banking on having 2, 3, 5 million subscribers. That's simply not the case. You can't bank on even a million subscribers these days, and you're naive if you think that their expectations were to have more than that.
Crazkanuk
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Azarelos - 90 Hunter - Emerald
Durnzig - 90 Paladin - Emerald
Demonicron - 90 Death Knight - Emerald Dream - US
Tankinpain - 90 Monk - Azjol-Nerub - US
Brindell - 90 Warrior - Emerald Dream - US
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Oh I have the background. What bit of statistics would you like to discuss. Non-parametric Bayesian sampling based on a zero sample size perhaps? Or sampling theory in general. Or ....?
This is simpler. They have "some data" about "37M" people. They have factored it up by x2 or x10 or x100 to "represent" the worldwide gaming population. Factored it for "assumed playing habits" and factored it some more for assumed average spend per transaction. Unless you believe they "have access" to what you are spending on your credit / debit / paypal etc. account. No - didn't think so.
Now nothing wrong with making a guess. The statistical methodology I mention above starts with a guess, then it observes and then it refines. Past guesses though from SuperData though .... have looked wide of the mark.
And using WoW data to guesstimate subs - according to the article the WoW income is for just for in-game spending not subs; not box sales. Hmm.
Such as?
“Microtransactions? In a single player role-playing game? Are you nuts?”
― CD PROJEKT RED
You need to re-read my post. I did not say that success means that a game should have ~5 (?) million players. What I said is that your game of choice does not need to have WoW's success to find it pleasurable. Also I gave an example of successful game with Minecraft. I don't even know how you deducted WoW out of this. I'm pretty sure the only game that can beat WoW in terms of profit is WoW for plethora of reasons.
What is a well known fact is that every company's PR team brags about sales, retention rates, subscriptions, whatever kind of numbers to convince people that a certain product is worth it (in this case the monthly fee) continuously. However this is not the case of Bethesda with this game. The only thing they bragged about was the 5 million beta registrations.
And certain brainwashed people come here trying to do Bethesda's job. Spreading numbers in hopes that people would believe that TESO is not an underperforming game.
Let me tell you this ... if it isn't coming from an official source its nothing but a wishful thinking (E.g. vaporware). I'm sorry but vaporware doesn't justify a subscription which this game doesn't deserve.
6 months in, what have they done? Promises ... nothing but promises. 90$ from every active player on top of 60$ box price. Do you think the content they've produced is worth few millions of dollars?
And even if this number is true (which i doubt), the amount of cash they made for 6 months in this year release with so much hype is very, very underperforming. Some games make that in couple of weeks you know
LOL
my version:
As hard as you try to make it out to be a failure game, TeSo is far from it, And deep down you know it, why do you even bother
hater ? hater gotta hate
Of course it's under performing. It's a console franchise that has only been released on PC so far. Like if GTA decided to release only on PC, it would be under performing.
DAoC - Excalibur & Camlann
I remember when some Chinese marketing website had listed GW2 as having some ridiculously high number of log-ins per day and the GW2 fans took it as gospel and defended it tooth and nail........That is, until it was disproven and taken offline.
Why do we continue to post unverified information based on limited and very selective data by people with no real access to to the actual facts? Then defend it as if it was the given truth?
Last time someone posted such info on ESO it was an estimate of 800K, now it's 1.2M? I find it unlikely it grew that much in the past few months.
We all know who you are talking about and I still question how this guy has been allowed to disrupt conversations on this site for years with no repercussions from the moderators, He is obviously either employed by this site or a Trion employee who is given special privelages to troll here.
Aloha Mr Hand !