MMO's are doing ok. Why we have hundreds now. The companies that run (make the profit) from them are sure making an effort to kill them but they can not.
They just can not learn the meaning of the word Niche. They all have WOW on the brain.
Get in your niche, love your niche, and treat your niche well. And it will treat you well.
50k paying a sub will more than support a niche game. And it will grow if you just do not panic and tick off your NICHE players by changing things around.
Make a good game, charge a fair price, treat your players with the respect they deserve and they will be your best advertisement you can have. And the best way to grow the niche as well.
Ok lets crunch some numbers. Lets say 150 million dollars to create a nice AAA MMO for the niche crowd of 50,000 subs.
That works out to $3,000 per sub. Box sales at 50 / box will net 2.5 million. Now you need to recoup 147,500,000 dollars.
Each sub at 15 dollars returns 180 / year. So annual sub revenue would be 9 million.
147.5 million divided by 9 = 16.38 years
So according to you, spending 150 million with the possibility of not seeing a return on your investment until after 16.4 years is ok? And this does not even include operating expenses or profit! How many people will be still playing your game after 16 years? You are going to need at least EVE numbers and EVE level of retention if that is your plan. And we all know how many games have been successful at that. A Darkfall was the best you could hope for and that was what you got. Pretty successful wasn't it!
Yea try pitching that one to your investors. It just shows how the niche players do not understand the reality of economics today.
At least try to put something that makes sense. Who says you need 150 million is question one.
Number 2 would be who says that only 50 k would ever buy a new game? Do you not pay attention at all to the way games work anymore? Most games have a massive spike of box sales then settle down to a much smaller number of people that stick around past the first month or 2. THAT smaller number is your niche.
They will sustain a good MMO if they are treated well and the devs stay true to the niche.
So please make a better point.. Not just more BS....
Originally posted by Loktofeit "And the ideals that the MMORPG began with have grown and become a complicated web of ideas that all link to the first three letters: MMO. And we can’t even agree on what exactly an MMO is most days. I’m not saying that a game like World of Tanks is an MMO, just that there’s a connection that’s obvious and we cover the game’s news when appropriate. But I digress… everything, as the title says, is not alright.
We’re 10 years on from World of Warcraft and Azeroth is still the only world that makes a real blip in the greater populace’s consciousness. There have been successes in the MMO industry to be sure, but nothing as great as what Blizzard stumbled into. And that’s not how it’s supposed to go… right? Aren’t cultural zeitgeist-leading trends like World of Warcraft supposed to help evolve the medium into something greater than what came before?"
I kinda see it differently, Bill. The second paragraph seems to only be true because you limit ""MMO" in the first. If you limit MMOs to class-restricted, level-based, fantasy games with few outliers, then not only can the platform not evolve, you ensure its stagnation, no?
If you're looking for successes in the MMO industry only among the DIKU-shackled designed, and dismiss games such as World of Tanks and League of Legends then the industry is not alright. IMO, the industry has expanded the MMO far beyond elves, raiding and the repetitive ascent from the "flimsy starter sword". MOBAs, PBBGs, ActionRPGs, and MMOFPS have expanded the platform, grown popular, and produced successes equal to the behemoth WoW.
MMOs are more than just the EQ/WOW games. I think it does the platform a disservice to relegate it to just that. It causes stagnation in both perception and acceptance, which in turn causes stagnation in progress.
Of course they are, they're games like EVE, GW2, AoC, AoW, AA, DF, MO, and games no longer running like SWG, COX etc.
They are not lobby games with very small scale PVP such as LoL (5 vs 5) that have many people who play on a daily basis. They are not lobby based tank shooters that consist of two little teams of 15 that have many people who play on a daily basis. These types of games happen to have character progression (a lot of video game genres have this now) and maybe another MMO ingredient here or there, but they lack the very core, the foundation of MMO; they are not massively, even though they may have massive amounts of people that play on a daily basis.
You cheapen the heart and the essence of what makes a game an MMO with this ignorant blindfolded ridiculous form of classification. It's really out there, man. If you don't see what a stagnant mess this genre has turned into over the years, I don't even have the energy to go any further with this.
Bill, you really seem to have a good grasp on where this genre finds itself in 2015 and what the future holds with such opportunity and potential not too far off in the distance. Good read and good job.
"Mr. Rothstein, your people never will understand... the way it works out here. You're all just our guests. But you act like you're at home. Let me tell you something, partner. You ain't home. But that's where we're gonna send you if it harelips the governor." - Pat Webb
If WoW were to disappear today, imagine how many great new MMOs would come out of the wood works, how many meh, so-so MMOs would get the attention and funding to turn them into great ones.
An analogy from the forest - as long as the old giant tree stands, throwing shade on everything that came after it, below it, nothing there will flourish. It doesn't matter if the old tree is rotten at its core, all but dead, a monument to a bygone era, it's sheer bulk and mass carries it on, long past it's time. It'll even kill it's own seedlings.
Don't complain that nothing new will grow while you continue to worship the old. Yes, we all understand, 10 years ago you carved "xxDwarfLover669xx + Wow 4ever" into the tree's skin, and, god forbid, your own. But with the stretching and bulging that measured the years, it's really hard to still make out what it was you wrote or meant, and to anyone not "in on it" it now just reads "suxors!1!! thx 4 all the cashz!! kbai!1 WoW"
MMO's are doing ok. Why we have hundreds now. The companies that run (make the profit) from them are sure making an effort to kill them but they can not.
They just can not learn the meaning of the word Niche. They all have WOW on the brain.
Get in your niche, love your niche, and treat your niche well. And it will treat you well.
50k paying a sub will more than support a niche game. And it will grow if you just do not panic and tick off your NICHE players by changing things around.
Make a good game, charge a fair price, treat your players with the respect they deserve and they will be your best advertisement you can have. And the best way to grow the niche as well.
Ok lets crunch some numbers. Lets say 150 million dollars to create a nice AAA MMO for the niche crowd of 50,000 subs.
That works out to $3,000 per sub. Box sales at 50 / box will net 2.5 million. Now you need to recoup 147,500,000 dollars.
Each sub at 15 dollars returns 180 / year. So annual sub revenue would be 9 million.
147.5 million divided by 9 = 16.38 years
So according to you, spending 150 million with the possibility of not seeing a return on your investment until after 16.4 years is ok? And this does not even include operating expenses or profit! How many people will be still playing your game after 16 years? You are going to need at least EVE numbers and EVE level of retention if that is your plan. And we all know how many games have been successful at that. A Darkfall was the best you could hope for and that was what you got. Pretty successful wasn't it!
Yea try pitching that one to your investors. It just shows how the niche players do not understand the reality of economics today.
At least try to put something that makes sense. Who says you need 150 million is question one.
Number 2 would be who says that only 50 k would ever buy a new game? Do you not pay attention at all to the way games work anymore? Most games have a massive spike of box sales then settle down to a much smaller number of people that stick around past the first month or 2. THAT smaller number is your niche.
They will sustain a good MMO if they are treated well and the devs stay true to the niche.
So please make a better point.. Not just more BS....
I did make a point, yours was the BS without anything to back it up.
So I had a look around to see what development costs might be. My first impression was that Star Citizen is well past 60 million and a long way from complete so the 150 million dollar number seemed reasonable. But I also saw that funcom states around 40 million for TSW but that includes the fact that they used an inhouse game engine.
So If we drop the number to 50 million ( which is the bare minimum for a game acceptable to a niche audience IMO ) Then the numbers will drop to a third of what I used. As far as the box sales you can see they were a small % of the revenue. An increase there would not make a significant difference.
So about 5 and a half years to recoup investment. That is more reasonable definitely. But TSW and Rift which were both claimed to be about 50 million were meant to appeal to larger audiences and have had their trouble as well. Going after a fickle niche audience would be even tougher, as the game would have to be extremely focused. One misstep and the whole baby goes out with the bath water.
Still if you were trying to pitch this game to an investor and said we are aiming to please about 50 k players who are fairly demanding in what they want, as well as saying we won't see any profit for over 5 years, and its difficult to predict how successful we will be, what would be your answer?
Ok great, I am sure those 50 k players that want to kill each other but haven't got a decent game to do it in, need our support!! I would be happy to risk my 50 million thanks for asking. And strangely many have, so I guess there is hope.
As for the highlighted part, that is where all the risk lies. Which 50,000 players do you keep happy? And how do you stay "TRUE" if you are trying to please them all. Its always these catch phrases that the complainers throw out there, as if they are some simple truth that is easy to implement. Talk is cheap, but making a good game is not. Nor is it " EASY"!
FFA Nonconsentual Full Loot PvP ...You know you want it!!
Definitely agree on a fair amount of the points made here, tbh it's been said a million times once big money (corporations) got involved in the genre things went down hill. Monetization became a priority focusing on "How can we make the most money with the least effort."
Haxus Council Member 21 year MMO veteran PvP Raid Leader Lover of The Witcher & CD Projekt Red
The new mmo market is consoles the hardware and networks are finally there and gaming is going to shift that direction in 2015 with windows 10. The end of the Era isn't so much mmo gaming but pc gaming
Originally posted by Mithrundir Definitely agree on a fair amount of the points made here, tbh it's been said a million times once big money (corporations) got involved in the genre things went down hill. Monetization became a priority focusing on "How can we make the most money with the least RISK"
Fixed
FFA Nonconsentual Full Loot PvP ...You know you want it!!
I did make a point, yours was the BS without anything to back it up.
So I had a look around to see what development costs might be. My first impression was that Star Citizen is well past 60 million and a long way from complete so the 150 million dollar number seemed reasonable. But I also saw that funcom states around 40 million for TSW but that includes the fact that they used an inhouse game engine.
Are you serious? You claim the other guys point is BS when you take your example from a game that is well known for spending a truly outrageous amount of money on an admittedly way to overambitious game and a large portion of people think is vaporware?
Honestly the simple fact you admitted yourself that you got your 150 million figure from Star Citizen proves you were just using a strawman to tear down the other guys' argument.
I did make a point, yours was the BS without anything to back it up.
So I had a look around to see what development costs might be. My first impression was that Star Citizen is well past 60 million and a long way from complete so the 150 million dollar number seemed reasonable. But I also saw that funcom states around 40 million for TSW but that includes the fact that they used an inhouse game engine.
Are you serious? You claim the other guys point is BS when you take your example from a game that is well known for spending a truly outrageous amount of money on an admittedly way to overambitious game and a large portion of people think is vaporware?
Honestly the simple fact you admitted yourself that you got your 150 million figure from Star Citizen proves you were just using a strawman to tear down the other guys' argument.
What the hell are you talking about??
I took that number from the fact that that is how much they have spent and that is how far it has gotten them. Whether or not you think it is vaporware or overambitious is completely irrelevant to everything.
The fact is, the previous poster simply stated, build an MMO for 50 k people and it will be successful if it is TRUE to its vision and players, whatever the hell that means. And then he gave no numbers or facts to back up his claim.
So in fact he had no real argument, just an opinion.
So you can take your little strawman and ............!
FFA Nonconsentual Full Loot PvP ...You know you want it!!
MMO's are doing ok. Why we have hundreds now. The companies that run (make the profit) from them are sure making an effort to kill them but they can not.
They just can not learn the meaning of the word Niche. They all have WOW on the brain.
Get in your niche, love your niche, and treat your niche well. And it will treat you well.
50k paying a sub will more than support a niche game. And it will grow if you just do not panic and tick off your NICHE players by changing things around.
Make a good game, charge a fair price, treat your players with the respect they deserve and they will be your best advertisement you can have. And the best way to grow the niche as well.
Ok lets crunch some numbers. Lets say 150 million dollars to create a nice AAA MMO for the niche crowd of 50,000 subs.
That works out to $3,000 per sub. Box sales at 50 / box will net 2.5 million. Now you need to recoup 147,500,000 dollars.
Each sub at 15 dollars returns 180 / year. So annual sub revenue would be 9 million.
147.5 million divided by 9 = 16.38 years
So according to you, spending 150 million with the possibility of not seeing a return on your investment until after 16.4 years is ok? And this does not even include operating expenses or profit! How many people will be still playing your game after 16 years? You are going to need at least EVE numbers and EVE level of retention if that is your plan. And we all know how many games have been successful at that. A Darkfall was the best you could hope for and that was what you got. Pretty successful wasn't it!
Yea try pitching that one to your investors. It just shows how the niche players do not understand the reality of economics today.
At least try to put something that makes sense. Who says you need 150 million is question one.
Number 2 would be who says that only 50 k would ever buy a new game? Do you not pay attention at all to the way games work anymore? Most games have a massive spike of box sales then settle down to a much smaller number of people that stick around past the first month or 2. THAT smaller number is your niche.
They will sustain a good MMO if they are treated well and the devs stay true to the niche.
So please make a better point.. Not just more BS....
I did make a point, yours was the BS without anything to back it up.
So I had a look around to see what development costs might be. My first impression was that Star Citizen is well past 60 million and a long way from complete so the 150 million dollar number seemed reasonable. But I also saw that funcom states around 40 million for TSW but that includes the fact that they used an inhouse game engine.
So If we drop the number to 50 million ( which is the bare minimum for a game acceptable to a niche audience IMO ) Then the numbers will drop to a third of what I used. As far as the box sales you can see they were a small % of the revenue. An increase there would not make a significant difference.
So about 5 and a half years to recoup investment. That is more reasonable definitely. But TSW and Rift which were both claimed to be about 50 million were meant to appeal to larger audiences and have had their trouble as well. Going after a fickle niche audience would be even tougher, as the game would have to be extremely focused. One misstep and the whole baby goes out with the bath water.
Still if you were trying to pitch this game to an investor and said we are aiming to please about 50 k players who are fairly demanding in what they want, as well as saying we won't see any profit for over 5 years, and its difficult to predict how successful we will be, what would be your answer?
[snip]
im assuming 50k is a typo since that is not niche its dead when you consider how those players spread their time.
500k is however a good niche level (i would call that mainstream, not niche) - and a perfectly achievable figure for a good mmo. Thats £25 million from box sales roughly, and assuming say 20% running costs will break-even in a year and a half with a dev budget of £100m. Over 5 years though and you are talking 100% profit +. So for big money investors its very attractive i'm sure.
rpg/mmorg history: Dun Darach>Bloodwych>Bards Tale 1-3>Eye of the beholder > Might and Magic 2,3,5 > FFVII> Baldur's Gate 1, 2 > Planescape Torment >Morrowind > WOW > oblivion > LOTR > Guild Wars (1900hrs elementalist) Vanguard. > GW2(1000 elementalist), Wildstar
MMO's are doing ok. Why we have hundreds now. The companies that run (make the profit) from them are sure making an effort to kill them but they can not.
They just can not learn the meaning of the word Niche. They all have WOW on the brain.
Get in your niche, love your niche, and treat your niche well. And it will treat you well.
50k paying a sub will more than support a niche game. And it will grow if you just do not panic and tick off your NICHE players by changing things around.
Make a good game, charge a fair price, treat your players with the respect they deserve and they will be your best advertisement you can have. And the best way to grow the niche as well.
Ok lets crunch some numbers. Lets say 150 million dollars to create a nice AAA MMO for the niche crowd of 50,000 subs.
That works out to $3,000 per sub. Box sales at 50 / box will net 2.5 million. Now you need to recoup 147,500,000 dollars.
Each sub at 15 dollars returns 180 / year. So annual sub revenue would be 9 million.
147.5 million divided by 9 = 16.38 years
So according to you, spending 150 million with the possibility of not seeing a return on your investment until after 16.4 years is ok? And this does not even include operating expenses or profit! How many people will be still playing your game after 16 years? You are going to need at least EVE numbers and EVE level of retention if that is your plan. And we all know how many games have been successful at that. A Darkfall was the best you could hope for and that was what you got. Pretty successful wasn't it!
Yea try pitching that one to your investors. It just shows how the niche players do not understand the reality of economics today.
At least try to put something that makes sense. Who says you need 150 million is question one.
Number 2 would be who says that only 50 k would ever buy a new game? Do you not pay attention at all to the way games work anymore? Most games have a massive spike of box sales then settle down to a much smaller number of people that stick around past the first month or 2. THAT smaller number is your niche.
They will sustain a good MMO if they are treated well and the devs stay true to the niche.
So please make a better point.. Not just more BS....
I did make a point, yours was the BS without anything to back it up.
So I had a look around to see what development costs might be. My first impression was that Star Citizen is well past 60 million and a long way from complete so the 150 million dollar number seemed reasonable. But I also saw that funcom states around 40 million for TSW but that includes the fact that they used an inhouse game engine.
So If we drop the number to 50 million ( which is the bare minimum for a game acceptable to a niche audience IMO ) Then the numbers will drop to a third of what I used. As far as the box sales you can see they were a small % of the revenue. An increase there would not make a significant difference.
So about 5 and a half years to recoup investment. That is more reasonable definitely. But TSW and Rift which were both claimed to be about 50 million were meant to appeal to larger audiences and have had their trouble as well. Going after a fickle niche audience would be even tougher, as the game would have to be extremely focused. One misstep and the whole baby goes out with the bath water.
Still if you were trying to pitch this game to an investor and said we are aiming to please about 50 k players who are fairly demanding in what they want, as well as saying we won't see any profit for over 5 years, and its difficult to predict how successful we will be, what would be your answer?
[snip]
im assuming 50k is a typo since that is not niche its dead when you consider how those players spread their time.
500k is however a good niche level (i would call that mainstream, not niche) - and a perfectly achievable figure for a good mmo. Thats £25 million from box sales roughly, and assuming say 20% running costs will break-even in a year and a half with a dev budget of £100m. Over 5 years though and you are talking 100% profit +. So for big money investors its very attractive i'm sure.
No it wasn't a typo, thats honestly what he meant, although I believe he wishes he had started with a higher number. The same as I wished I had probably used 100 million instead of 150.
Its the main reason why I said he needed to be looking at EVE numbers instead, which are generally considered around that mark, as I understand it.
But my whole point is that people just seem to think ..... oh! make a game that appeals to ME and everyone who thinks exactly like ME and it will be successful as long as you don't piss ME off or do something I don't like!
And I don't think the world works that way IMO.
FFA Nonconsentual Full Loot PvP ...You know you want it!!
If WoW were to disappear today, imagine how many great new MMOs would come out of the wood works, how many meh, so-so MMOs would get the attention and funding to turn them into great ones.
An analogy from the forest - as long as the old giant tree stands, throwing shade on everything that came after it, below it, nothing there will flourish. It doesn't matter if the old tree is rotten at its core, all but dead, a monument to a bygone era, it's sheer bulk and mass carries it on, long past it's time. It'll even kill it's own seedlings.
Don't complain that nothing new will grow while you continue to worship the old. Yes, we all understand, 10 years ago you carved "xxDwarfLover669xx + Wow 4ever" into the tree's skin, and, god forbid, your own. But with the stretching and bulging that measured the years, it's really hard to still make out what it was you wrote or meant, and to anyone not "in on it" it now just reads "suxors!1!! thx 4 all the cashz!! kbai!1 WoW"
Actually, I think less MMOs would get funding if that happened. Wow is the reason that companies like EA put so much money into MMOs. We could of course discuss if that money was well spent but Wow did inspire investors at least.
The already existing games could put in more work going for the top but they could just as well cut down on devs since their top competitor is down, they will get some of those players for free.
Nah, what we need is a few more games with 1-3 million players and good earnings, preferably games that use new and different mechanics and earn in a good sum of cash. That would inspire investors to put money in new thinking games instead.
Right now they see Wow losing income and Hearthstone actually earning more than Wow while Wildstar is flopping and ESO seems to be at least in some problems. That makes most investors thinking about onnline trading card games instead of MMOs, and those are relatively cheap to make unlike MMOs.
MMO's are doing ok. Why we have hundreds now. The companies that run (make the profit) from them are sure making an effort to kill them but they can not.
They just can not learn the meaning of the word Niche. They all have WOW on the brain.
Get in your niche, love your niche, and treat your niche well. And it will treat you well.
50k paying a sub will more than support a niche game. And it will grow if you just do not panic and tick off your NICHE players by changing things around.
Make a good game, charge a fair price, treat your players with the respect they deserve and they will be your best advertisement you can have. And the best way to grow the niche as well.
Ok lets crunch some numbers. Lets say 150 million dollars to create a nice AAA MMO for the niche crowd of 50,000 subs.
That works out to $3,000 per sub. Box sales at 50 / box will net 2.5 million. Now you need to recoup 147,500,000 dollars.
Each sub at 15 dollars returns 180 / year. So annual sub revenue would be 9 million.
147.5 million divided by 9 = 16.38 years
So according to you, spending 150 million with the possibility of not seeing a return on your investment until after 16.4 years is ok? And this does not even include operating expenses or profit! How many people will be still playing your game after 16 years? You are going to need at least EVE numbers and EVE level of retention if that is your plan. And we all know how many games have been successful at that. A Darkfall was the best you could hope for and that was what you got. Pretty successful wasn't it!
Yea try pitching that one to your investors. It just shows how the niche players do not understand the reality of economics today.
At least try to put something that makes sense. Who says you need 150 million is question one.
Number 2 would be who says that only 50 k would ever buy a new game? Do you not pay attention at all to the way games work anymore? Most games have a massive spike of box sales then settle down to a much smaller number of people that stick around past the first month or 2. THAT smaller number is your niche.
They will sustain a good MMO if they are treated well and the devs stay true to the niche.
So please make a better point.. Not just more BS....
I did make a point, yours was the BS without anything to back it up.
So I had a look around to see what development costs might be. My first impression was that Star Citizen is well past 60 million and a long way from complete so the 150 million dollar number seemed reasonable. But I also saw that funcom states around 40 million for TSW but that includes the fact that they used an inhouse game engine.
So If we drop the number to 50 million ( which is the bare minimum for a game acceptable to a niche audience IMO ) Then the numbers will drop to a third of what I used. As far as the box sales you can see they were a small % of the revenue. An increase there would not make a significant difference.
So about 5 and a half years to recoup investment. That is more reasonable definitely. But TSW and Rift which were both claimed to be about 50 million were meant to appeal to larger audiences and have had their trouble as well. Going after a fickle niche audience would be even tougher, as the game would have to be extremely focused. One misstep and the whole baby goes out with the bath water.
Still if you were trying to pitch this game to an investor and said we are aiming to please about 50 k players who are fairly demanding in what they want, as well as saying we won't see any profit for over 5 years, and its difficult to predict how successful we will be, what would be your answer?
[snip]
im assuming 50k is a typo since that is not niche its dead when you consider how those players spread their time.
500k is however a good niche level (i would call that mainstream, not niche) - and a perfectly achievable figure for a good mmo. Thats £25 million from box sales roughly, and assuming say 20% running costs will break-even in a year and a half with a dev budget of £100m. Over 5 years though and you are talking 100% profit +. So for big money investors its very attractive i'm sure.
No it wasn't a typo, thats honestly what he meant, although I believe he wishes he had started with a higher number. The same as I wished I had probably used 100 million instead of 150.
Its the main reason why I said he needed to be looking at EVE numbers instead, which are generally considered around that mark, as I understand it.
But my whole point is that people just seem to think ..... oh! make a game that appeals to ME and everyone who thinks exactly like ME and it will be successful as long as you don't piss ME off or do something I don't like!
And I don't think the world works that way IMO.
Yup creating a game that appeals to 500kish players over 5 years - that requires major skill any may areas. We have EVE, GW2, FF14, Rift, ESO, and TSW all thriving and then all the others - finding something new and fresh to slit along those is tricky. Wildstar is the warning that same old same old with a coating of paint wont cut it.
However, that's how games used to work in any case up to early 2000's - innovation and quality and win, and Investors are still looking to put their money somewhere with large potential profits.
rpg/mmorg history: Dun Darach>Bloodwych>Bards Tale 1-3>Eye of the beholder > Might and Magic 2,3,5 > FFVII> Baldur's Gate 1, 2 > Planescape Torment >Morrowind > WOW > oblivion > LOTR > Guild Wars (1900hrs elementalist) Vanguard. > GW2(1000 elementalist), Wildstar
I still miss the social experience I had in games like SWG and EQ2. None of the present day MMOs gave me something even remotely like this, and consequently anything ever since has been more or less a placeholder. So if the current MMO model vanishes, good. I am tired of being in a treadmill of fight and quest only. Though it may be that I find whatever comes next may be worse. Who knows. But the current WoW-model (in the broadest sense) needs to go. It is at the sort of end of it's lifecycle, and it was long enough. It was also nice, no doubt. I had fun in many of these sort of games. But they remained placeholders for the true WORLDS, the social experience I had and want back.
The funny thing is, for 10 years we always speculated what would replace WOW, but ultimately is may well be, if WOW closes, it simply leaves a big hole.
People don't ask questions to get answers - they ask questions to show how smart they are. - Dogbert
I think in order for there to be a big change in the MMO genre, there has to be a change in the way we access and play the MMOs. As an example, virtual reality. Right now its still accessed with the inputs of keyboard, and mouse/game joystick, and monitor. With the implementation of VR in the future that COULD offer a change in the way we all view MMOs.
I think every idea, or almost every idea has been done in the many different MMOs we see today. There is only so much you can do idea wise in a MMO. I believe technology/hardware plays a role in this limitation. Of course there will be new innovative ideas that will hit the genre scene. But most devs see something successful and copy it. I hardly see any new ideas being made for games these days. Its the same re-skins of past games redone and repackaged, give or take a few features.
If WoW were to disappear today, imagine how many great new MMOs would come out of the wood works, how many meh, so-so MMOs would get the attention and funding to turn them into great ones.
An analogy from the forest - as long as the old giant tree stands, throwing shade on everything that came after it, below it, nothing there will flourish. It doesn't matter if the old tree is rotten at its core, all but dead, a monument to a bygone era, it's sheer bulk and mass carries it on, long past it's time. It'll even kill it's own seedlings.
Don't complain that nothing new will grow while you continue to worship the old. Yes, we all understand, 10 years ago you carved "xxDwarfLover669xx + Wow 4ever" into the tree's skin, and, god forbid, your own. But with the stretching and bulging that measured the years, it's really hard to still make out what it was you wrote or meant, and to anyone not "in on it" it now just reads "suxors!1!! thx 4 all the cashz!! kbai!1 WoW"
Actually, I think less MMOs would get funding if that happened. Wow is the reason that companies like EA put so much money into MMOs. We could of course discuss if that money was well spent but Wow did inspire investors at least.
The already existing games could put in more work going for the top but they could just as well cut down on devs since their top competitor is down, they will get some of those players for free.
Nah, what we need is a few more games with 1-3 million players and good earnings, preferably games that use new and different mechanics and earn in a good sum of cash. That would inspire investors to put money in new thinking games instead.
Right now they see Wow losing income and Hearthstone actually earning more than Wow while Wildstar is flopping and ESO seems to be at least in some problems. That makes most investors thinking about onnline trading card games instead of MMOs, and those are relatively cheap to make unlike MMOs.
Not only are they cheaper to make but I would be willing to bet they have more replayability as well. People can play card games over and over while essentially doing the same thing. It just seems more random.
But killing mob after mob the same way each time gets old fast. Very difficult to make an MMO that holds players interest long term.
In fact, until someone comes up with a lets say, a consensual PvP sandbox, I highly doubt it is possible in this age of MMO's.
FFA Nonconsentual Full Loot PvP ...You know you want it!!
I think in order for there to be a big change in the MMO genre, there has to be a change in the way we access and play the MMOs. As an example, virtual reality. Right now its still accessed with the inputs of keyboard, and mouse/game joystick, and monitor. With the implementation of VR in the future that COULD offer a change in the way we all view MMOs.
I think every idea, or almost every idea has been done in the many different MMOs we see today. There is only so much you can do idea wise in a MMO. I believe technology/hardware plays a role in this limitation. Of course there will be new innovative ideas that will hit the genre scene. But most devs see something successful and copy it. I hardly see any new ideas being made for games these days. Its the same re-skins of past games redone and repackaged, give or take a few features.
I sort of agree with you about this.
I think if there is really going to be a "next big MMO" it would either have to be a successful broad spectrum sandbox appealing to virtually all types of MMO gameplay and especially community.
Or it would have to be something that revolutionarily changes the genre, such as a great game that incorporates VR as more than just a gimmick.
It could be either or a combination of both, but just appealing to small individual groups, is not the recipe for MMO success, particularly if we are looking for virtual worlds. Worlds should have variety, not just 50 k people that all think the same.
FFA Nonconsentual Full Loot PvP ...You know you want it!!
First off, Bill - congratulation on great and honest article.
However everything is not right - and there is no room for optimism or turning a failure into victory dance. Here is why
AAA companies pulling out and leaving the genre to Indie is not good thing by any measure.
AAA companies perhaps do not have open hands to do what they want - but they do have 2 important things : Best and most experienced professionals , Money to pay them.
Indie teams struggle with making pac-man clones, running out of budget and time. How can they tackle MMO size behemots ?
They maybe have fresh ideas but they have no experience either.
On the end best Indie company can do is sandbox - but empty sandbox , not wonder filled sandbox like Skyrim.
But here is the sadest reason why everything is not right
The MMO genre might bounce back. That indie companies might make one small MMO, earn money to make something great and than finally make it.
That great MMO we are dreaming about just might be reality again.
But it will take at least 10 years from now.
Yes. You heard me.
The development cycle of MMO is 3-4 years. And it will take at least two if not more development cycles for MMOs to recuperate.
So in 2025 we might have that good MMO.
This is why I call this the dark ages of MMO
I believe you are quite right about a few things:
The AAA MMO developers/publishers of the past have lost their way, and are no longer able to make products that perform well in the market.
Traditional AAA MMO's are slow to make, and can be very expensive.
The MMO industry will bounce back, and it may take a while...
I believe that in the post WoW era of gaming development there was a fundamental change in how companies/studios were expected to operate. This worked for many years, but as the market became much tighter and competition increased it started causing problems. In order for the industry to progress, we have to go backwards for a little bit, so that we can again move forward with more realistic expectations.
Products need to once again be built on a sustainable growth model. We should no longer 'assume' that games will launch as a fully viable business. The business planning should instead assume that it will take 2-3 years of full time additional development to reach this level. This is how the original products were able to become established, and how the products that were able to survive were able to achieve a measure of success.
A simple change in the expectations, and establishing accurate cost and revenue models would result in successful products that provide both a good return for the investors, as well as years of entertainment for the customers. However, it would also require an acceptance of what is reasonable to achieve, and the fiscal restraint necessary to reach the goal.
Unfortunately I do not see this happening with the current AAA MMO companies, as it would require a complete executive personality change.
I think if there is really going to be a "next big MMO" it would either have to be a successful broad spectrum sandbox appealing to virtually all types of MMO gameplay and especially community.
Except this exists already. EVE Online allows you to pretty much anything you'd be interested in doing in an MMO, and you are mostly protected from PVP in High Sec space so the full loot PVP piece is irrelevant as well. In the end, people write it off because "I don't want to be a Spaceship" or something.
The sad reality is that the MMO fanbase has grown up, yet we all long for that same feeling we had when we first stepped into our first MMO (for most of us, WoW or EQ). We will not get this feeling ever again. Even with emerging technologies, if the core gameplay is stale it won't matter.
I seriously think the only logical way forward for the "MMO," genre is more games like Destiny. Survival "MMOs," appear to do well, at least in my circles, so there is a market there as well that could be expanded on easily. A problem in this industry is it is almost like everyone uses the same playbook. Want to make an MMORPG? Copy WoW. Want to make a sandbox? Copy EVE. Want to make a survival sim? Copy DayZ. This creates one of the most stale elements of the video game market I have ever seen. This mentality works in shooters and console RPGs/action games because there is almost always an in depth story to back it up and the game is meant to be played once, maybe twice, and traded in. MMOs are meant to be "forever," so me too nonsense doesn't work. Every so often a game comes along and does break the mold, and they tend to do well (Guild Wars 2 comes to mind).
It won't be until this fundamental flaw is addressed that MMOs become prominent again.
Please visit my youtube channel for some H1Z1/DayZ casual roleplay videos!
The other half of the picture is that the Asian market is still very competitive and only going to grow. I expect most of the innovation and all of the big budget games for the next 5-10 years to come out of Asia where it's still profitable to make big budget MMOs. For those of us that enjoy or at least can tolerate Asian games the future isn't really looking that bad.
I for one have decided to draw a line in the sand. EQN and star citizen will be two of the final "new" MMO's I will ever adopt. Over the past 15 years Ive tested and played between 75-100 different MMO's and out of that 100 I have chosen about 40 of them to play until they are shut down, if they ever do. These games are ment to be played for years if not decades, and it is silly to abandon them a month or even a year post release and never look back when they usually only get better and more refined as the years roll by with more and more content. MMO's are marvelous games, and have extrodinary amount of content and replayability. There are games still played today that were created centuries ago, why could not this era of online games be preserved far into the future? I suppose that operating a realm cost money but would that cost not decrease as technology and bandwidth continues to increase? Does not the billions the general playerbase have invested into these games warrant there long term preservation? It would be a shame if this era of games gets lost due to the corporate drive to ever increase the bottom line.
The cult-of-infinite-greed that is Murican-style crony-capitalism killed the genre. When the "money-men" are in charge any creativity is murdered in the crib. And you can't have any kind of half-way decent gaming industry without creativity.
I think if there is really going to be a "next big MMO" it would either have to be a successful broad spectrum sandbox appealing to virtually all types of MMO gameplay and especially community.
Except this exists already. EVE Online allows you to pretty much anything you'd be interested in doing in an MMO, and you are mostly protected from PVP in High Sec space so the full loot PVP piece is irrelevant as well. In the end, people write it off because "I don't want to be a Spaceship" or something.
The sad reality is that the MMO fanbase has grown up, yet we all long for that same feeling we had when we first stepped into our first MMO (for most of us, WoW or EQ). We will not get this feeling ever again. Even with emerging technologies, if the core gameplay is stale it won't matter.
I seriously think the only logical way forward for the "MMO," genre is more games like Destiny. Survival "MMOs," appear to do well, at least in my circles, so there is a market there as well that could be expanded on easily. A problem in this industry is it is almost like everyone uses the same playbook. Want to make an MMORPG? Copy WoW. Want to make a sandbox? Copy EVE. Want to make a survival sim? Copy DayZ. This creates one of the most stale elements of the video game market I have ever seen. This mentality works in shooters and console RPGs/action games because there is almost always an in depth story to back it up and the game is meant to be played once, maybe twice, and traded in. MMOs are meant to be "forever," so me too nonsense doesn't work. Every so often a game comes along and does break the mold, and they tend to do well (Guild Wars 2 comes to mind).
It won't be until this fundamental flaw is addressed that MMOs become prominent again.
No I don't think we can accept EVE as the definition of broad spectrum. The one thing you suggested, being a spaceship, makes it fairly narrow focused. Now if the spaceships could land and you could walk into a city and sell your wares, or run a shop that repairs spacecraft, and that sort of thing..... then we are talking broad spectrum.
EVE is merely the start of broad spectrum, hence its limited appeal.
FFA Nonconsentual Full Loot PvP ...You know you want it!!
Comments
At least try to put something that makes sense. Who says you need 150 million is question one.
Number 2 would be who says that only 50 k would ever buy a new game? Do you not pay attention at all to the way games work anymore? Most games have a massive spike of box sales then settle down to a much smaller number of people that stick around past the first month or 2. THAT smaller number is your niche.
They will sustain a good MMO if they are treated well and the devs stay true to the niche.
So please make a better point.. Not just more BS....
Of course they are, they're games like EVE, GW2, AoC, AoW, AA, DF, MO, and games no longer running like SWG, COX etc.
They are not lobby games with very small scale PVP such as LoL (5 vs 5) that have many people who play on a daily basis. They are not lobby based tank shooters that consist of two little teams of 15 that have many people who play on a daily basis. These types of games happen to have character progression (a lot of video game genres have this now) and maybe another MMO ingredient here or there, but they lack the very core, the foundation of MMO; they are not massively, even though they may have massive amounts of people that play on a daily basis.
You cheapen the heart and the essence of what makes a game an MMO with this ignorant blindfolded ridiculous form of classification. It's really out there, man. If you don't see what a stagnant mess this genre has turned into over the years, I don't even have the energy to go any further with this.
Bill, you really seem to have a good grasp on where this genre finds itself in 2015 and what the future holds with such opportunity and potential not too far off in the distance. Good read and good job.
"Mr. Rothstein, your people never will understand... the way it works out here. You're all just our guests. But you act like you're at home. Let me tell you something, partner. You ain't home. But that's where we're gonna send you if it harelips the governor." - Pat Webb
If WoW were to disappear today, imagine how many great new MMOs would come out of the wood works, how many meh, so-so MMOs would get the attention and funding to turn them into great ones.
An analogy from the forest - as long as the old giant tree stands, throwing shade on everything that came after it, below it, nothing there will flourish. It doesn't matter if the old tree is rotten at its core, all but dead, a monument to a bygone era, it's sheer bulk and mass carries it on, long past it's time. It'll even kill it's own seedlings.
Don't complain that nothing new will grow while you continue to worship the old. Yes, we all understand, 10 years ago you carved "xxDwarfLover669xx + Wow 4ever" into the tree's skin, and, god forbid, your own. But with the stretching and bulging that measured the years, it's really hard to still make out what it was you wrote or meant, and to anyone not "in on it" it now just reads "suxors!1!! thx 4 all the cashz!! kbai!1 WoW"
I did make a point, yours was the BS without anything to back it up.
So I had a look around to see what development costs might be. My first impression was that Star Citizen is well past 60 million and a long way from complete so the 150 million dollar number seemed reasonable. But I also saw that funcom states around 40 million for TSW but that includes the fact that they used an inhouse game engine.
So If we drop the number to 50 million ( which is the bare minimum for a game acceptable to a niche audience IMO ) Then the numbers will drop to a third of what I used. As far as the box sales you can see they were a small % of the revenue. An increase there would not make a significant difference.
So about 5 and a half years to recoup investment. That is more reasonable definitely. But TSW and Rift which were both claimed to be about 50 million were meant to appeal to larger audiences and have had their trouble as well. Going after a fickle niche audience would be even tougher, as the game would have to be extremely focused. One misstep and the whole baby goes out with the bath water.
Still if you were trying to pitch this game to an investor and said we are aiming to please about 50 k players who are fairly demanding in what they want, as well as saying we won't see any profit for over 5 years, and its difficult to predict how successful we will be, what would be your answer?
Ok great, I am sure those 50 k players that want to kill each other but haven't got a decent game to do it in, need our support!! I would be happy to risk my 50 million thanks for asking. And strangely many have, so I guess there is hope.
As for the highlighted part, that is where all the risk lies. Which 50,000 players do you keep happy? And how do you stay "TRUE" if you are trying to please them all. Its always these catch phrases that the complainers throw out there, as if they are some simple truth that is easy to implement. Talk is cheap, but making a good game is not. Nor is it " EASY"!
FFA Nonconsentual Full Loot PvP ...You know you want it!!
21 year MMO veteran
PvP Raid Leader
Lover of The Witcher & CD Projekt Red
Fixed
FFA Nonconsentual Full Loot PvP ...You know you want it!!
Are you serious? You claim the other guys point is BS when you take your example from a game that is well known for spending a truly outrageous amount of money on an admittedly way to overambitious game and a large portion of people think is vaporware?
Honestly the simple fact you admitted yourself that you got your 150 million figure from Star Citizen proves you were just using a strawman to tear down the other guys' argument.
What the hell are you talking about??
I took that number from the fact that that is how much they have spent and that is how far it has gotten them. Whether or not you think it is vaporware or overambitious is completely irrelevant to everything.
The fact is, the previous poster simply stated, build an MMO for 50 k people and it will be successful if it is TRUE to its vision and players, whatever the hell that means. And then he gave no numbers or facts to back up his claim.
So in fact he had no real argument, just an opinion.
So you can take your little strawman and ............!
FFA Nonconsentual Full Loot PvP ...You know you want it!!
im assuming 50k is a typo since that is not niche its dead when you consider how those players spread their time.
500k is however a good niche level (i would call that mainstream, not niche) - and a perfectly achievable figure for a good mmo. Thats £25 million from box sales roughly, and assuming say 20% running costs will break-even in a year and a half with a dev budget of £100m. Over 5 years though and you are talking 100% profit +. So for big money investors its very attractive i'm sure.
rpg/mmorg history: Dun Darach>Bloodwych>Bards Tale 1-3>Eye of the beholder > Might and Magic 2,3,5 > FFVII> Baldur's Gate 1, 2 > Planescape Torment >Morrowind > WOW > oblivion > LOTR > Guild Wars (1900hrs elementalist) Vanguard. > GW2(1000 elementalist), Wildstar
Now playing GW2, AOW 3, ESO, LOTR, Elite D
No it wasn't a typo, thats honestly what he meant, although I believe he wishes he had started with a higher number. The same as I wished I had probably used 100 million instead of 150.
Its the main reason why I said he needed to be looking at EVE numbers instead, which are generally considered around that mark, as I understand it.
But my whole point is that people just seem to think ..... oh! make a game that appeals to ME and everyone who thinks exactly like ME and it will be successful as long as you don't piss ME off or do something I don't like!
And I don't think the world works that way IMO.
FFA Nonconsentual Full Loot PvP ...You know you want it!!
Actually, I think less MMOs would get funding if that happened. Wow is the reason that companies like EA put so much money into MMOs. We could of course discuss if that money was well spent but Wow did inspire investors at least.
The already existing games could put in more work going for the top but they could just as well cut down on devs since their top competitor is down, they will get some of those players for free.
Nah, what we need is a few more games with 1-3 million players and good earnings, preferably games that use new and different mechanics and earn in a good sum of cash. That would inspire investors to put money in new thinking games instead.
Right now they see Wow losing income and Hearthstone actually earning more than Wow while Wildstar is flopping and ESO seems to be at least in some problems. That makes most investors thinking about onnline trading card games instead of MMOs, and those are relatively cheap to make unlike MMOs.
Didn't you forget the casuals?
Lol
Yup creating a game that appeals to 500kish players over 5 years - that requires major skill any may areas. We have EVE, GW2, FF14, Rift, ESO, and TSW all thriving and then all the others - finding something new and fresh to slit along those is tricky. Wildstar is the warning that same old same old with a coating of paint wont cut it.
However, that's how games used to work in any case up to early 2000's - innovation and quality and win, and Investors are still looking to put their money somewhere with large potential profits.
rpg/mmorg history: Dun Darach>Bloodwych>Bards Tale 1-3>Eye of the beholder > Might and Magic 2,3,5 > FFVII> Baldur's Gate 1, 2 > Planescape Torment >Morrowind > WOW > oblivion > LOTR > Guild Wars (1900hrs elementalist) Vanguard. > GW2(1000 elementalist), Wildstar
Now playing GW2, AOW 3, ESO, LOTR, Elite D
I still miss the social experience I had in games like SWG and EQ2. None of the present day MMOs gave me something even remotely like this, and consequently anything ever since has been more or less a placeholder. So if the current MMO model vanishes, good. I am tired of being in a treadmill of fight and quest only. Though it may be that I find whatever comes next may be worse. Who knows. But the current WoW-model (in the broadest sense) needs to go. It is at the sort of end of it's lifecycle, and it was long enough. It was also nice, no doubt. I had fun in many of these sort of games. But they remained placeholders for the true WORLDS, the social experience I had and want back.
The funny thing is, for 10 years we always speculated what would replace WOW, but ultimately is may well be, if WOW closes, it simply leaves a big hole.
People don't ask questions to get answers - they ask questions to show how smart they are. - Dogbert
I think in order for there to be a big change in the MMO genre, there has to be a change in the way we access and play the MMOs. As an example, virtual reality. Right now its still accessed with the inputs of keyboard, and mouse/game joystick, and monitor. With the implementation of VR in the future that COULD offer a change in the way we all view MMOs.
I think every idea, or almost every idea has been done in the many different MMOs we see today. There is only so much you can do idea wise in a MMO. I believe technology/hardware plays a role in this limitation. Of course there will be new innovative ideas that will hit the genre scene. But most devs see something successful and copy it. I hardly see any new ideas being made for games these days. Its the same re-skins of past games redone and repackaged, give or take a few features.
Not only are they cheaper to make but I would be willing to bet they have more replayability as well. People can play card games over and over while essentially doing the same thing. It just seems more random.
But killing mob after mob the same way each time gets old fast. Very difficult to make an MMO that holds players interest long term.
In fact, until someone comes up with a lets say, a consensual PvP sandbox, I highly doubt it is possible in this age of MMO's.
FFA Nonconsentual Full Loot PvP ...You know you want it!!
I sort of agree with you about this.
I think if there is really going to be a "next big MMO" it would either have to be a successful broad spectrum sandbox appealing to virtually all types of MMO gameplay and especially community.
Or it would have to be something that revolutionarily changes the genre, such as a great game that incorporates VR as more than just a gimmick.
It could be either or a combination of both, but just appealing to small individual groups, is not the recipe for MMO success, particularly if we are looking for virtual worlds. Worlds should have variety, not just 50 k people that all think the same.
FFA Nonconsentual Full Loot PvP ...You know you want it!!
I believe you are quite right about a few things:
The AAA MMO developers/publishers of the past have lost their way, and are no longer able to make products that perform well in the market.
Traditional AAA MMO's are slow to make, and can be very expensive.
The MMO industry will bounce back, and it may take a while...
I believe that in the post WoW era of gaming development there was a fundamental change in how companies/studios were expected to operate. This worked for many years, but as the market became much tighter and competition increased it started causing problems. In order for the industry to progress, we have to go backwards for a little bit, so that we can again move forward with more realistic expectations.
Products need to once again be built on a sustainable growth model. We should no longer 'assume' that games will launch as a fully viable business. The business planning should instead assume that it will take 2-3 years of full time additional development to reach this level. This is how the original products were able to become established, and how the products that were able to survive were able to achieve a measure of success.
A simple change in the expectations, and establishing accurate cost and revenue models would result in successful products that provide both a good return for the investors, as well as years of entertainment for the customers. However, it would also require an acceptance of what is reasonable to achieve, and the fiscal restraint necessary to reach the goal.
Unfortunately I do not see this happening with the current AAA MMO companies, as it would require a complete executive personality change.
Except this exists already. EVE Online allows you to pretty much anything you'd be interested in doing in an MMO, and you are mostly protected from PVP in High Sec space so the full loot PVP piece is irrelevant as well. In the end, people write it off because "I don't want to be a Spaceship" or something.
The sad reality is that the MMO fanbase has grown up, yet we all long for that same feeling we had when we first stepped into our first MMO (for most of us, WoW or EQ). We will not get this feeling ever again. Even with emerging technologies, if the core gameplay is stale it won't matter.
I seriously think the only logical way forward for the "MMO," genre is more games like Destiny. Survival "MMOs," appear to do well, at least in my circles, so there is a market there as well that could be expanded on easily. A problem in this industry is it is almost like everyone uses the same playbook. Want to make an MMORPG? Copy WoW. Want to make a sandbox? Copy EVE. Want to make a survival sim? Copy DayZ. This creates one of the most stale elements of the video game market I have ever seen. This mentality works in shooters and console RPGs/action games because there is almost always an in depth story to back it up and the game is meant to be played once, maybe twice, and traded in. MMOs are meant to be "forever," so me too nonsense doesn't work. Every so often a game comes along and does break the mold, and they tend to do well (Guild Wars 2 comes to mind).
It won't be until this fundamental flaw is addressed that MMOs become prominent again.
Please visit my youtube channel for some H1Z1/DayZ casual roleplay videos!
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCrQoK5VZlwBBzpsksmXtjMQ
No I don't think we can accept EVE as the definition of broad spectrum. The one thing you suggested, being a spaceship, makes it fairly narrow focused. Now if the spaceships could land and you could walk into a city and sell your wares, or run a shop that repairs spacecraft, and that sort of thing..... then we are talking broad spectrum.
EVE is merely the start of broad spectrum, hence its limited appeal.
FFA Nonconsentual Full Loot PvP ...You know you want it!!