PC sales plummet to record 9 year low. Intel tumbles.

Kiyoris

http://www.wsj.com/articles/pc-sales-drop-to-historic-lows-1452634605

"Sales of personal computers fell in the final quarter of 2015 to their lowest level since 2007, the year Apple Inc. introduced the iPhone, according to data released Tuesday by industry researcher International Data Corp."

http://www.sltrib.com/home/3424525-155/intel-tumbles-after-weaker-sales-forecast

Righteous_Rock

no need for a new pc , old pcs will get upgraded with azure, and all the games suck anymore mainly because of cash shops

Archlyte

Oh my god Noo! No!! no no. This is only the 800th time the end of the PC has arrived in the last 20 years. 

Kiyoris

I think it's a few things:

-moore's law is coming to an end (some argue, including Intel, that it's already ended), no more massive easy gains in GPU/CPU, less reason to upgrade

-mobile, many people feel an iPhone and a tablet serves them fine (I don't, but I realize that for many mobile is good enough)

-diminishing returns in daily use, I don't need 10Gbit/s internet, I don't need 16 cores, I don't need 4k...we are at a point where PC are great...the way they are...sure I like advancements...but I'm not running out to buy a 4k monitor that looks like a 1080p one with some minor minor difference

tawess

Well as others have pointed out... several times... 

One main reason is that the PC lowend have not seen all that much change. If anything it has become longer and longer. People have not had reasons to upgrade as often. Then ofc any form of computer sales would go down as laptops are being replaced with smartphones and tablets. This will ofc be most notably on the PC side as there is not the same monolithic brand loyalty there as on the Apple side of things. (i also have no doubt that apple would count tablets as computers if it helped them to furbish the numbers) 

In short.... Slow news day. 

Reizla

Kiyoris said:

I think it's a few things:

-diminishing returns in daily use, I don't need 10Gbit/s internet, I don't need 16 cores, I don't need 4k...we are at a point where PC are great...the way they are...sure I like advancements...but I'm not running out to buy a 4k monitor that looks like a 1080p one with some minor minor difference

Kinda in this segment myself... I upgraded from GTX660 half a year ago to a GTX970. Now I'm in doubt if I should upgrade my Phenom 1090T for a FX8350/FX8370. My PC runs fine, games perform well but at times I do see that my CPU is a bit slow compared to the GPU. As exampl:, I get 'only' 40FPS in BDO CBT1 while ppl with latest i5/i7 had 75+FPS on a GTX970...

Quizzical

Kiyoris said:

I think it's a few things:

-moore's law is coming to an end (some argue, including Intel, that it's already ended), no more massive easy gains in GPU/CPU, less reason to upgrade

-mobile, many people feel an iPhone and a tablet serves them fine (I don't, but I realize that for many mobile is good enough)

-diminishing returns in daily use, I don't need 10Gbit/s internet, I don't need 16 cores, I don't need 4k...we are at a point where PC are great...the way they are...sure I like advancements...but I'm not running out to buy a 4k monitor that looks like a 1080p one with some minor minor difference

While Moore's Law will come to an end eventually, we're not there just yet.  Unless you're the sort who argues that a full node per 30 months instead of 24 constitutes the end of Moore's Law.  We're in the process of jumping to 14/16 nm finfet process nodes, and that's going to be quite a lift.

The sort of people who think a phone and/or a tablet is all they need today is the sort of people who wouldn't have had a PC of any sort 20 years ago.

You're right about diminishing returns, though.  At some point, things are good enough and you don't need the next upgrade.  Sound cards got there years ago, for example.  But that's hardly new; keyboards were plenty good enough decades ago.

postlarval

Funny that you post this. I was just reading an article the other day that said more iPads were sold than PCs in 2015. Times they are a changin'

Kiyoris

I think that's why VR is being promoted so much right now.

Why did VR suddenly come onto the scene.

A: Because the technology was ready and because people asked for it.

B: Because PC makers and chip makers want it out there.

I think it's B and only a little bit of A. If VR succeeds, people will be buying new PC. But I think VR will fail.

The other reason to upgrade might be 4k. But I just don't see it happening. Sure, there is some interest in 4k, but it's nothing like 800x600 to HD (1080x1920 and 720p).

I think the slump in sales is long-term.

Quizzical

postlarval said:

Funny that you post this. I was just reading an article the other day that said more iPads were sold than PCs in 2015. Times they are a changin'

And there were more potato chips than iPads sold in 2015.  That's the end of the iPad, right?  </sarcasm>

FlyByKnight

I think this is happening not because the industry is "failing", it's happening because PC gamers are in wait for the next iteration of hardware that is a significant upgrade to what they already have.

For me personally I'm waiting on Thunderbolt 3 to settle in, as it completely changes how I look at desktop/laptop gaming and working. I haven't purchased anything when I easily could I have. I could have built a new rig, I could have bought a new laptop.  I don't want to rush into any purchases until I can get a grasp of what's out there.

Quizzical

It used to be that the reason you got a new computer is because the old one was too slow.  Now you get a new computer because the old one wore out and is no longer reliable.  And it takes longer for a computer to wear out than it used to take for them to feel too slow as compared to newer, faster models.  PCs are hardly going to vanish, but if everyone gets a new one every six years and used to get a new computer every three years, sales fall by half.

Quesa

For a long while now, games used mostly GPUs.  Now, we're starting to see an increased demand on CPUs because of physics based games.  

If VR takes off, in any moderate measure, it will push current systems to the limit requiring upgrades which will likely require CPU updates.

4K is still a bit taxing on systems as well as the wallet, as soon as it becomes more mainstream, it will be found in more homes.  Most games still don't take advantage of 4k, nor do movies or other forms of visual entertainment.  When people start adopting 4k, bandwidth will be needed for streaming services like Netflix.

Quantum computing has been making some strides lately.  When quantum computing goes mainstream, it will completely change the computing landscape.

Kiyoris

Quizzical said:

 And it takes longer for a computer to wear out than it used to take for them to feel too slow as compared to newer, faster models.

I hope they don't start with this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planned_obsolescence

I saw a episode about washing machines where former engineers said they were appointed to make sure the machines broke down after X years.

The only company who wasn't doing it was Miele, also the only company willing to go on the show.

Samsung and others were all doing it, like putting weak plastic hinges on the doors etc.

Some politicans say that there should be a "Lasts X years" certification on certain produts. Good idea imo.

tet666

Guys  it's the PREBUILT PC market they are talking about you know that overpriced bloatware invested shit  from discounters no one really needs and such not the hardware market.
It's obvious why this market is shrinking the casuals are buying smart TV's, Tablets and such instead now that's all they need and Gamers never bought this crap they buy Hardware and built their own machine or at least let someone else built it.

postlarval

Quizzical said:

postlarval said:

Funny that you post this. I was just reading an article the other day that said more iPads were sold than PCs in 2015. Times they are a changin'

And there were more potato chips than iPads sold in 2015.  That's the end of the iPad, right?  </sarcasm>

I'm just reporting what I read. No opinion offered. Don't get your panties in a wad, princess.

Quizzical

Kiyoris said:

Quizzical said:

 And it takes longer for a computer to wear out than it used to take for them to feel too slow as compared to newer, faster models.

I hope they don't start with this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planned_obsolescence

What makes you think they haven't?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultrabook
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Unit_of_Computing

High end price tags for low end performance and impossible to repair if things go wrong.

Phry

i bought a PC back in 96 or 97, didn't buy another one after that, on the other hand, i've built several since then. My current system is a 9590 black edition, with an msi gtx 980ti, i've used the same copy of Win 7/64 through 2 motherboard changes, and 2 changes of hard drives, during this period i went from Win 7, to Win 10, and back to Win 7 again, later this year i might give Win 10 another go, hopefully it will be a bit more stable by then.
Chances are i will never buy myself a new PC, as for tablets, i have a kindle fire, i don't need a smart phone, so chances are i'll never buy one, i do however now have a mobile phone, its kept in the car for emergency use, and costs about £10 every 2 or 3 months.
Can a smart phone do the things i need a PC for? No, is the simple answer, and its unlikely to change in the foreseeable future, the tech just isnt there yet, not even close.
I did however, recently buy a PS4, i totally didn't see that coming, and its all Square Enix's fault.

On the other hand, the OP might be operating under something of a misunderstanding, as they failed to notice that for the time period in question, was when the Wii was released, and that console dominated the console market very quickly, which is of far more significance than the rather questionable link to the iphone.

FlyByKnight

Planned Obsolescence is the laziest most dishonest way to sustain product revenue streams so the answer is yes. That IS the move. Not innovating new revenue streams to accompany a great solidy built product, but assuring it's shitty enough to have to be bought again or repaired.

tet666

The fact is garbage vendor PC sales are down, because custom PC sales are beyond at an all-time high. Each gen of GPUs and monitors that comes out is sold-out for months. You couldn't find a GTX 970 or 980 for almost 6 months earlier this year, and currently you can't find a Predator X34 monitor anywhere that isn't backordered a month.

Steam sales and concurrent users are at an all-time high as well. Digital games sales are at an all-time high. So sick of these articles and erroneous stats.

Kiyoris

tet666 said:

Guys  it's the PREBUILT PC market they are talking about you know that overpriced bloatware invested shit  from discounters no one really needs and such not the hardware market.

I made a graph. Probably like 90% of gamers use prebuilt PC.

And of PC users, probably over 99% use prebuilt PC.

I make my own PC, but most gamers don't.

Octagon7711

PC's last a lot longer now and are easy to upgrade.  iPhones and tablets can handle your social media needs and are very portable.  People who use pc's only for email and web surfing think the pc they purchased 10 years ago should last forever. The cell phone is the new pc.

Kiyoris

Some of the PC upgrades in the future or already here are:

USB 3.1: Hmm, not so interesting to me, I like the speed of USB 3.0. I don't need higher speed really.

(also, the reversible USB 3.1 plug, up is down and down is up...nice but I really don't care about that lol. Come on, it is not even an annoyance)

NVMe SSD: Interesting, but SSD speed is kinda fast enough for me.

New 14nm GPU: Interesting and might upgrade in the future, but that's not a new PC, I'll just switch the GPU around.

Nothing really that entices me to upgrade. And VR doesn't interest me in the slightest.

azarhal

They said just like in 2007...

Sojhin

My prebuilt cpu has handled itself well for the last five years now even on current games with max settings. I'd only be interested in another computer at this rate if it was akin to the leaps in power we had ten years back.

Leon1e

Welp, my PC is good enough. Seeing a decent i7 costs around 400$ - 600$ plus decent motherboard for it another 200$+ , i'm passing that offer and waiting for DirectX 12, because i already burned 600 for a top of the line GPU. I guess many people are thinking like me. Can't wait to see the prices when overstock turns around and bites intel on the ass. Or if AMD decides to wake up and make a decent architecture with flexible pricing.