Howdy, Stranger!
It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!
Quick Links
Welcome to the era of pre-ordered video cards
Last March, with the launch of the Titan X, Nvidia did something really insidious. I didn't catch it at the time, but yesterday's GTX 1080 announcement clarified it for me. When they launched the Titan X, it wasn't just that it was a paper launch. Nvidia let you buy the card off their web site immediately, with a promise to send it to you when it was available. That would end up being several weeks later.
At the time, I thought they were just trying to get out in front of an imminent Fiji launch. I was mistaken on that, as the Fury X wouldn't launch until June, and wouldn't have wide availability until about September. Or at least if I was right, then Nvidia was also mistaken on the Fury X launch timing, which probably isn't the case.
And then came yesterday. Micron claims to be the first vendor to ramp up production of GDDR5X memory, and announced that they had started sampling it on March 29, 2016. They hope to enter mass production of GDDR5X this summer. Hynix and Samsung don't dispute Micron's claim to be first on GDDR5X, but would parry instead that it doesn't matter because HBM2 is better and they're ahead of Micron on HBM2 production.
Last night, Nvidia announced that the GeForce GTX 1080 will launch in May 27, 2016 and use GDDR5X memory. Putting the year on both of those dates is necessary because otherwise, one would reasonably assume that they must be different years. If you really believe that completed video cards with GDDR5X can be widely available less than two months after the first GDDR5X chips started sampling, then you know nothing about where hardware comes from. It's not going to happen. Even a six month gap is unlikely.
So if the May 27 date isn't when you can get a card, then what is it? Probably a date that you can pre-order a card. Pay money now and get the card eventually. The problem is that "eventually" isn't going to be a few days or even a few weeks. It likely won't even be a few months. It's going to be long enough that, by the time you get the card, the market will be radically different from when you placed the order.
From the specs, the GTX 1070 is likely to offer performance in the ballpark of a GTX 980 Ti or a Fury X. Those are roughly $600 cards, so if you can get that performance in a $449 "Founders Edition" card (yes, Nvidia really called it that) with less power consumption for only $449, what's not to like? So you shell out your money.
Then AMD launches Polaris 10, and gives that same performance for $300. Maybe it's a soft launch, but it will probably have widespread availability before the GTX 1070. Now you just paid $449 to eventually get a card that you could have had for $300 immediately if only you had waited. Still such a good deal?
It's plausible that the GTX 1070 might have wide availability much sooner than the GTX 1080, as it's not waiting on GDDR5X memory. But the GTX 1080 is a long way off still. Want to pay $699 later this month to get a card around the end of this year that would be the fastest on the market if you had it today? By the time you have your card, Vega might well be close--and it's likely that Vega will blow away GTX 1080 performance, and also likely that it will cost under $699.
Is that pre-order that pays a premium for the fastest card on the market still such a good deal if gets beaten badly a couple months after you get the card? With Vega and GP100 on the way, it's not likely that a GTX 1080 will cost $699 for all that long after the cards are available. In fact, it's not hard to see the price dropping below $400 within months. Or $300.
The price it takes to get a given level of performance tends to drop as time passes. If Nvidia can get you to make decisions based on today's prices for a card that will be delivered several months later and be worth much less then, then they can get you to massively overpay. That's the goal here, and so I hope it flops miserably.
Just like games that try to get you to pre-purchase or pay for alpha access or Kickstarter or whatever. Oh wait. Some gamers apparently love paying now for the hopes of getting something well in the future. Now I see why Nvidia is going that route, and to be fair, people who pre-order a GTX 1080 will almost certainly get one eventually, which is more than one could say for backing a Kickstarter.
So my advice is simple. Buy a card that is in stock when you buy it. Don't treat "you'll get it eventually" as being the same as "we'll ship it to you today". Otherwise, AMD will be forced to follow suit and the pre-orders will start coming earlier and earlier, before Nvidia or AMD has any real idea of what the final specs will even be. Want to choose today which vendor you'll buy a card from in 2018, without waiting to see what the cards are like? I sure don't.
At the time, I thought they were just trying to get out in front of an imminent Fiji launch. I was mistaken on that, as the Fury X wouldn't launch until June, and wouldn't have wide availability until about September. Or at least if I was right, then Nvidia was also mistaken on the Fury X launch timing, which probably isn't the case.
And then came yesterday. Micron claims to be the first vendor to ramp up production of GDDR5X memory, and announced that they had started sampling it on March 29, 2016. They hope to enter mass production of GDDR5X this summer. Hynix and Samsung don't dispute Micron's claim to be first on GDDR5X, but would parry instead that it doesn't matter because HBM2 is better and they're ahead of Micron on HBM2 production.
Last night, Nvidia announced that the GeForce GTX 1080 will launch in May 27, 2016 and use GDDR5X memory. Putting the year on both of those dates is necessary because otherwise, one would reasonably assume that they must be different years. If you really believe that completed video cards with GDDR5X can be widely available less than two months after the first GDDR5X chips started sampling, then you know nothing about where hardware comes from. It's not going to happen. Even a six month gap is unlikely.
So if the May 27 date isn't when you can get a card, then what is it? Probably a date that you can pre-order a card. Pay money now and get the card eventually. The problem is that "eventually" isn't going to be a few days or even a few weeks. It likely won't even be a few months. It's going to be long enough that, by the time you get the card, the market will be radically different from when you placed the order.
From the specs, the GTX 1070 is likely to offer performance in the ballpark of a GTX 980 Ti or a Fury X. Those are roughly $600 cards, so if you can get that performance in a $449 "Founders Edition" card (yes, Nvidia really called it that) with less power consumption for only $449, what's not to like? So you shell out your money.
Then AMD launches Polaris 10, and gives that same performance for $300. Maybe it's a soft launch, but it will probably have widespread availability before the GTX 1070. Now you just paid $449 to eventually get a card that you could have had for $300 immediately if only you had waited. Still such a good deal?
It's plausible that the GTX 1070 might have wide availability much sooner than the GTX 1080, as it's not waiting on GDDR5X memory. But the GTX 1080 is a long way off still. Want to pay $699 later this month to get a card around the end of this year that would be the fastest on the market if you had it today? By the time you have your card, Vega might well be close--and it's likely that Vega will blow away GTX 1080 performance, and also likely that it will cost under $699.
Is that pre-order that pays a premium for the fastest card on the market still such a good deal if gets beaten badly a couple months after you get the card? With Vega and GP100 on the way, it's not likely that a GTX 1080 will cost $699 for all that long after the cards are available. In fact, it's not hard to see the price dropping below $400 within months. Or $300.
The price it takes to get a given level of performance tends to drop as time passes. If Nvidia can get you to make decisions based on today's prices for a card that will be delivered several months later and be worth much less then, then they can get you to massively overpay. That's the goal here, and so I hope it flops miserably.
Just like games that try to get you to pre-purchase or pay for alpha access or Kickstarter or whatever. Oh wait. Some gamers apparently love paying now for the hopes of getting something well in the future. Now I see why Nvidia is going that route, and to be fair, people who pre-order a GTX 1080 will almost certainly get one eventually, which is more than one could say for backing a Kickstarter.
So my advice is simple. Buy a card that is in stock when you buy it. Don't treat "you'll get it eventually" as being the same as "we'll ship it to you today". Otherwise, AMD will be forced to follow suit and the pre-orders will start coming earlier and earlier, before Nvidia or AMD has any real idea of what the final specs will even be. Want to choose today which vendor you'll buy a card from in 2018, without waiting to see what the cards are like? I sure don't.
Comments
All time classic MY NEW FAVORITE POST! (Keep laying those bricks)
"I should point out that no other company has shipped out a beta on a disc before this." - Official Mortal Online Lead Community Moderator
Proudly wearing the Harbinger badge since Dec 23, 2017.
Coined the phrase "Role-Playing a Development Team" January 2018
"Oddly Slap is the main reason I stay in these forums." - Mystichaze April 9th 2018
Wa min God! Se æx on min heafod is!
1070 for 449, nah, 379 - have to see what AMD has to offer.
And seems there has been some confusion, 1070 will use GDDR5 not GDDRX5
I wouldn't ever pre-order a card, but I think pre-orders in general are kinda dumb. I like to see benchmarks and reviews before ordering as the promised features are not always as good as the specs the manufacturer puts out. That goes for any pre-order, promised features might not actually make it in the game (I'm looking at you Diablo3's pvp.)
Kinda silly to think that they're insidious though especially based on speculation unless you also think all the other companies that allow pre-orders are as well. If you do, then fair enough.
This is why it's not the way that video cards traditionally launch. Rather, you wait until you have a bunch of working cards available to sell with many more in production on the way, and then you launch. If production gets delayed, then you delay the launch date. Nvidia isn't doing it that way this time.
Now, I don't know for certain exactly what Nvidia is going to do. It's possible that they'll lift the NDA and have a bunch of reviews up in May, and then essentially no one actually gets a chance to pay money for a GTX 1080 until November. But that long of a delay would be pretty much unprecedented in the history of video card launches.
You can choose to pre order or not.
Nvidia isn't going to control it's stock output based on pre-ordering.
Like suddenly no cards will ever be found of that model again. The end of days stuff. I get it.
But meh... You can pre-order women (Or men) online. Also in real life.
So business as usual.
If speculation, you may well be correct they won't know when you'll get a card, but they could also have small batch with whatever GDDR5x chips they get pre mass production for sale with a defined date and limit pre-orders to scheduled stock. Not saying they will, but unless they've announced something, we don't really know the plan.
REAL prices and real value are not until 1-3 years later,after the initial impatient crowd have over paid for computer parts and peripherals.
It's really sad to see all these cards being made in Asian countries,likely by well underpaid slave labor.
Then we see nvidia or ATI make "special reference"cards to showoff unrealistic stats to hype the marketing.The cards your buying are made in China or Taiwan .Doesn't mean they might not be good better or whatever but does mean they are made for mere pennies but sold at ridiculous prices.
Never forget 3 mile Island and never trust a government official or company spokesman.
fury's are coming don in price also ...
So what happens on May 27? I don't know, but it's definitely not going to be "now we can buy a GTX 1080 and start playing games on it".
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
"We all do the best we can based on life experience, point of view, and our ability to believe in ourselves." - Naropa "We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are." SR Covey
It's only a bad deal if NVidia asks us to commit to actually buying the GPU that might be delivered months from the pre-order date. If on the other hand NVidia allows us to reserve our spot in line for their new GPUs, but then cancel that spot should AMD come up with a better offer, it could be a fantastic deal for those of us who want to upgrade their GPU to better support VR.
I think we should wait to see the pre-order details before bashing NVidia.
As Octagon7711 said when they have tons of perorders the quality does seem to go down because they know they can push out fixes later.
Next we'll be seeing Kickstarter hardware with stretch goals.