Its an opinion but (imo) its grounded and asks some searching questions.
That was an amazing read. I think he hit many nails squarely even down to figuring out what the next steps should be right up until he got to "Immersed-con". Not that it's a bad thing, but it's still selling it to the wrong people.
The people he wants to target don't go to cons. They go to "Hot August Nights" and to winery tours and Disney World and 6 Flags. And until the industry can show them something other than a gimmick demo, it needs to connect and matter to them, it will still be just another nifty themepark ride like 3D and IMAX. Cool stuff. Awesome stuff. I first saw laser Floyd on an IMAX screen at the Seattle Center in the 80's. But it's still an amusement park gimimick, not every day tech I buy for the home. I'm not sure how to make that leap, but it's in that area I'm sure.
Man, did we read the same article?
I saw a tongue-in-cheek, meme-peppered "here's what I think of the state of affairs" advertisement for this guy's startup, disguised as an op-ed. He spends 1,500 words dancing around the question before launching into his dubious pitch, and his bias clearly shows because he doesn't even seem to have all the facts:
"we expected the total market sales would be capped at about 300,000 to 500,000 units give or take in the PC universe (HTC Vive, Oculus Rift, everything else PC). Yes, there are mobile and console numbers too, but they all tell the same story in their own way."
Except that you're off by about an order of magnitude or so in terms of the mobile market, Mr. Schneider. These numbers were public well before you wrote the article, but you just fail to bring up that little point since it doesn't fit your narrative, hmm?
I wonder if he's ever even strapped on a Gear VR, or if he's assuming it must be so much worse than PC VR or console VR because... reasons.
"Reddit has the largest online VR communities that I know of. These graphs highlight the subscription level of each VR Reddit community and when they hit certain membership milestones. Remember that Reddit accounts last forever, so the numbers never go down."
Using subreddit subscriptions to prove sales numbers. Party foul. The Vive subreddit has ~3x as many subscribers as the Gear VR subreddit, and yet the Gear VR has sold 10x as many units as Vive if you take Samsung's statement at face value, which has a little more credibility than subreddit subscription numbers. What's your confidence interval on those projections, Mr. Schneider?
"There is other data too; it all works out the same way."
...but apparently you couldn't be bothered to cite this in your article?
"Are we crazy to think that people will wear an electric Kleenex box on their face? Maybe in public...or on a bus"
Okay, so we're just going to discount all those anecdotes about public transportation being a very good use-case for VR? Right, because all mobile VR solutions = "electric Kleenex box". Again, why do I get the feeling this author has never actually strapped on a Gear VR?
"As demonstrated in the above graphs, we are tapped out; we haven't been doing nearly enough to appeal to a new customer base - just ourselves. We need more than a flying osterich to save the day."
The only numerical graphs you've shown are subreddit subscription numbers, and I liked the ostrich commercial.
"What we need is a solution that is 180 degrees apart from the current norm of VR marketing. It has to be a story-driven solution that will directly appeal and connect with consumers, and it has to reawaken the media interest in virtual reality and immersive technology."
Of course, that's what we need: clever marketing.
This guy is ignoring the fact that you can't show people a slick commercial and expect them to "get" it. Videos are just not a good way to convey the experience of what VR is like. I agree that VR needs narrative, but I'm not convinced that Mr. Schneider's proprietary Immersed-Con is the way to do this. I just can't take someone who drops 9 memes in a 3,800 word convention ad disguised as an op ed with two numerical graphs citing subreddit subscriptions as evidence seriously. That stated, I'm sure his PC-Master-Race-Ish "just ourselves" he writes about will receive him warmly there and I wish him well.
Just to clarify though, lets keep in mind that the 5 million gear VR sales are inflated. Most of those were given away for free with a purchase of a galaxy s7. They estimated first months sales around 7 Million. Now granted not all of those probably opted in for the promotion, but at the end of last year samsung in general sold 90 Million phones, and that promotion was run several times.
So I don't think you can base samsung headset sales off of interest in VR so much as samsung pushing VR sets to consumers so they can capitalize on what they originally thought would be a windfall of sales.
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Just to clarify though, lets keep in mind that the 5 million gear VR sales are inflated. Most of those were given away for free with a purchase of a galaxy s7. They estimated first months sales around 7 Million. Now granted not all of those probably opted in for the promotion, but at the end of last year samsung in general sold 90 Million phones, and that promotion was run several times.
So I don't think you can base samsung headset sales off of interest in VR so much as samsung pushing VR sets to consumers so they can capitalize on what they originally thought would be a windfall of sales.