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On server pop speculation...
xPaladin
Member UncommonPosts: 741
Folks, it's kinda useless to post anything about "server pops up" or "server pops down" because it's all hearsay. Yes, even with screenshots, and /who this, and all that. That's all a bunch of crap, because those kinds of user experiences change on a dime.
If you're really trying to prove the health or decline of this game, do it proper: write a small proggie to read the packets and dump the values into something cheap, like Excel. Do it 12 times a day (2 hour intervals) for a month. Once you have the data set up, you can do a little analysis. Make a few radar graphs, find peak activity time range, and make a simple algorithm for players based on standard deviations (for example a jump from 600 online to 800 online is +200 users, with some amount of variance on that number). Lastly validate the data with timestamps and screenshots
You can't get the number of subs from that (unless you're really l33t and can figure out how to grab unique ips or account names of all players from the client side -- good luck with that), but you can see what servers are "healthy" and which are not.
I'd do it myself as a neat little side project in data harvesting, but I'm just not at all interested in giving Sony $15, and I couldn't possibly sell them this data because they're already well aware of it. This is a good, cheap, and remarkably simple resume material idea for anyone looking to get into data analysis, though.
If you're really trying to prove the health or decline of this game, do it proper: write a small proggie to read the packets and dump the values into something cheap, like Excel. Do it 12 times a day (2 hour intervals) for a month. Once you have the data set up, you can do a little analysis. Make a few radar graphs, find peak activity time range, and make a simple algorithm for players based on standard deviations (for example a jump from 600 online to 800 online is +200 users, with some amount of variance on that number). Lastly validate the data with timestamps and screenshots
You can't get the number of subs from that (unless you're really l33t and can figure out how to grab unique ips or account names of all players from the client side -- good luck with that), but you can see what servers are "healthy" and which are not.
I'd do it myself as a neat little side project in data harvesting, but I'm just not at all interested in giving Sony $15, and I couldn't possibly sell them this data because they're already well aware of it. This is a good, cheap, and remarkably simple resume material idea for anyone looking to get into data analysis, though.
-- xpaladin
[MMOz]
AC1/2, AO, DAoC, EQ1/2, SoR, SWG, UO, WAR, WoW
Comments
its actually quite simple to realize whether any SOE game is growing.
SOE has always posted their numbers when their game is doing well and growing. They posted SWG's numbers right from launch until October 2003. Coincedentally, October was when 3 months subscriptions expired. Folks started leaving after that 3rd month mark and SOE has been quiet ever since.
I would bet my house that if SWG had grown even in the slightest bit post-NGE, Mr. Smedley would have posted this.
Fact - game continued to lose players although according to Smedley at a slower rate (wow thats something to brag about)
As a matter of fact someone did run a nice little program to check users on SWG's gaming servers. I do not know the specifics other then the results it represented and that SOE had to change a few things afterwards...
It showed an estimate of about 9500 users during peak times.
Most MMO's experiance about 18-22 % usage of their total subscription base during prime time. Certain days will yield greater results such as a sunday which commonly shows upwards of 25% activity of the sub base; 18-24% depending on demographics is a fair assesment.
If you look at 9500 users being 18-22 % of the active subscriber base you should be able to use some simple math to deduce a healthy average for the total subscribers in SWG.
As an example and using round numbers: 10,000 users = 20% of active subscribers yields a projected sub base of 50k. Yes, 50k subscribers. You can be overly optomistic and say 60k although if you try to go any higher you'll only be kidd'n your selves...
These "guestimates" are about 4-5 months old. Do you think there's more or less subscribers in SWG compared to 5 months ago?
I have already answered this question. Remeber my innate sense of server populations? 25K-50K active subscribers.
But I would like my sense of server population to be confirmed, so someone please do this
The numbers of people on at peak times are not relavant to the number of subscribers. I finally resubbed yesterday and from the times I logged on before I quit compared to now is a bit different. Before the CU I could get on and in Mos Eisley, the bank may have 50 people standing around and the Cantina probably around 120. As of February, my last walk through at peak time, I saw 2 people in Mos Eisley. Last night I saw around 20 people at the starport, about 15 at the Cantina, and around 25 at the bank. I am not using any programs or scientific analysis, I am just using my eyes.
Is the population of players increasing?
Yes.
Significantly?
Not by a long shot.
Well I can go to the middle of tatooine and get an screenshot with 0 players and say nobody is logged but me...
Or I can be lucky and find a place/moment with a lot of people...
In my opinion the best is to log in and try to remember how the game was. I've done it latelly and most people has left in my opinion.
Mos Eisley is the location for new players to run quests. It's actually a focal point for many quests. How many were characters of levels below 30?
And while you are voicing an "opinion" and "using" your eyes what qualifications or proof can you share as an example to support your "opinion" of the above highlighted post?
Fact is, number of users logged into a gaming server during "peak" hours _IS_ indictive of the total subscriber base.
Maximum server population is now set to 2500. You can probably use this to estimate the population though.
If there is anything I can tell about the poulation on bloodfin , It is the fact it is on most part an all new community. There are familiar names but they are few and far between. Take that how ever you will , To me it means new players are joining , Or lots of people are transfering servers
For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson
Well, last time I logged, once of the times I reached a starport it was full of "pvp on" people (who by the way attacked a guy that just had entered the starport from space)... Apart from that gank squad (which I could have screenshotted as a proof of the server population increase), I didn't see any other large group in days.
And Mos Eisley doesn't count, all new players seem to be dropped there so they think there is a lot of people playing ^^
Still, there have allways been places with more people than others (theed's spaceport for instance), but still, it's empty compared to how it was in the past.
Well I can go to the middle of tatooine and get an screenshot with 0 players and say nobody is logged but me...
Well, while that might be what you would do, I think everybody who has posted visual observations about populations has done so from areas in the game where avatar densities would be expected to be the highest (for example, Theed starport), and historically have been the highest.
However, perhaps that's where all the players have gone. Perhaps they are all out in the middle of Tatooine now. Run out there and take a screenshot for us.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
As ye SOE, so shall ye weep.
That is why screenshots really dont show a true example of populations . If i were to post my eve screens you would not see any other players in most of them . Yet it is a game considered doing well .
Most of the the people in towns are either PVPers or newer players . The PVErs are out doing what they do , They tend to be in the wild 70% of their playtime . ANd pvers out number pvpers in most MMO's 10-1 .
For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson
You can pretty much roll any typical PvP battle with 2 full groups, 16 people, and often with less than that. That is a far cry from the 50 on 50 and even bigger fights that used to happen 6 months ago. Consider that people play on Bloodfin to PvP, that is pretty pitiful.
Mos Eisley is the location for new players to run quests. It's actually a focal point for many quests. How many were characters of levels below 30?
And while you are voicing an "opinion" and "using" your eyes what qualifications or proof can you share as an example to support your "opinion" of the above highlighted post?
Fact is, number of users logged into a gaming server during "peak" hours _IS_ indictive of the total subscriber base.
Well, Beavis, I don't think your paying attention.
There are still around 50K to 75K subscribers and last night at peak time there were NOT 50K to 75K people on. It's not rocket science there, Johnny Bravo. It's the usage of common sense.
And RE: the snapshot that guy took. Yeah, that's the process I'm talking about, but it's only "one" data point (technically it's a set of data, but one point in time, thus my coinage). I'm talking more of a sustained sampling over time. Maybe I'll email this guy and see if we can collaborate on some data collection and analysis.
Also someone mentioned whether or not active players constitutes sub rates -- he's right, it doesn't. And it's made difficult (if not impossible) to determine because you can't tell unique accounts apart. However, its possible to compare the numbers against other games.
-- xpaladin
[MMOz]
AC1/2, AO, DAoC, EQ1/2, SoR, SWG, UO, WAR, WoW
Launch: 200K
JTL (Publish 11): 300K
CU (Publish 15): 250K
NGE (Publish 25):200K
February (Pub 27-ish):60K
Current:~60K
Their ACTIVE player base is probably around 10% of that, however.
Bottom line: SOE All Access Pass is what's keeping SWG afloat.
Currently Playing: Dungeons and Dragons Online.
Sig image Pending
Still in: A couple Betas
WOah! Ixontes isn't playing with a full deck. My advice, read a book "math for dummies". Common sense isn't so damned common since you lack possession of it.
You are no longer allowed to post until you read the target posting at least 5 times, think about it for 20 minutes then read it another 5 times. You must then talk to your parents about it to help you understand at which time you are allowed to post a single sentence in responce.
To post an actual responce to your confusion:
50k-70k users would dictate something of 9,000 to 16,500 users logged in during prime time. There are 25 servers.
http://www.shadowsinmotion.com/swg-server-population-revealed/
^ I'm not asking Ixontes to learn "rocket science" albiet I am sugesting usage of addition, multiplication and some division. Good luck!
Personally, the only thing that would matter to me would be how many of my friends were still playing (none); how many people I ran into on a normal basis so that the game doesnt feel empty; are their people available to group with; can I find vendors with the items I want on them; are people buing stuff from my vendors.
I would have no desire to try to "prove" to everyone that it is deserted, but rather to merely report my experiences since the theoretical "hordes" of people scattered throughout Mustafar, or wherever people are claiming now, really wouldnt reflect a thriving gameworld or affect my playing enjoyment in the least. There used to be people everywhere, if you have to search for people....well, thats proof enough for me.
"The man who exchanges Liberty for Iconic classes is a fool deserving of neither." - Me and Ben Franklin
Gee thanks Dad! I was awaiting your approval for my next post. What I am trying to relay is that there are still about 50K people subscribed but msot are dormant awaiting on some sort of miracle. I actually know of 5 accounts doing this. I did it for about 5 months.
Cheers
Gee thanks Dad! I was awaiting your approval for my next post. What I am trying to relay is that there are still about 50K people subscribed but msot are dormant awaiting on some sort of miracle. I actually know of 5 accounts doing this. I did it for about 5 months.
Cheers
This is Oubi-Uon-Khenobee, Dune Sea 17, Tatooine. He cannot be seen.
Mr. Oubi-Uon-Khenobee, would you, please, stand up.
...
Mr. Oubi-Uon-Khenobee has learned the importance of not being seen. Fortunately, we have a packet sniffer, which will reveal his true location.
>* cancelled *<
well say there are 600 people online ....
its not irrational to think with 600 people youd find 30 in the most popular cantina in the most popular city ... i mean ... i didnt hang out anywhere ELSE when i was in mos eisely cept the cantina ...
course ... what you dont understand squidi ... and what kind of makes me sad .. is before you started playing , back when the game was GOOD , back when i played... is you could go to ANCHORHEAD, and hang out in THAT cantina with a bunch of people ... 30 people or so
you could go to one of the better player cities and be hanging out with 30-50 people ( anyone remember buff lines? the powerful " trade" cities ? the auto health buffers and then going to the cantina to get the auto mind buffs .. and the amount of people just hanging around there?
you could go to jabbas and see 30 people and just hang out there RP'ing as a BH ( which i did many times) you could go to huff darklighters and see people!!
go into space to see people ... go into theed to see a whole lotta people ... youd see people at the geo caves .. youd see people at the themeparks .... kids used to just play right outside the rebel themepark on corellia ... they made it their home .. like 20 kids ... and everytime i went there i could RP with a bunch of " rebels"
and best of all there used to be like 200+ people hanging around dantooine miningoutpost for solo group ect... sure there was a ton of lag .. sure you HATED that creature handler who would pull out his twin rancors for fun to cause even more lag ... but you were forgiving .. deep down you knew it was GOOD to have that many people .. and you just wished SOE would fix the game the way blozzard or mythic did with WOW and DAOC where things wouldnt halt to a stand still when over 100 players were in one area ... but hey ..it was star wars .,,, we were happy the community was large .. and we were willing to overlook it ( with of course the occasional whiner in the forums )
but after the CU and as the NGE grew closer this changed ... untill you could only find a mass at a few key location ... a couple of people at theed starport... or a couple of people at mos eisely cantina
and no i suspect its even worse in that you can only find a grouping of players at one key area any given time ....
what you dont understand is ( and which i told you was laughable) for you to get excited about 30 people hanging around the most popular cantina ( mos eisely) during a popular hour of play ... in a NOOB AREA NO LESS..
its so very sad to me bro ... and im not just saying that ... i really from the bottom of my heart would have found joy in seeing you current fans of SWG get to play when i did .. when the game was healthy and vibrant ... when the world was saturated with emotion and dream .. where RPing was actually FUN to do once and a while ...
where an argument in a cantina on some back water planet like rori .. would break out into a blaster duel and youd have another 10 seedy customerswho camped there for whatever reason .. watching the duel till someone died ...
you had smugglers or bounty hunters, or one of the few jedi out of robes in hiding, with no tag displayed ( cause back then it was cooler to RP jedi not to be a shit talking chump with a jedi ) all making deals in back alleys...
whether it was for a rare pearl that the jedi in hiding needed, wondering if he bought off the wrong person ... someone who might expose his identity to a BH who would then plot a way to gain him visibility and hunt him off the terms ...
or a BH getting a weapon sliced by a smuggler, anxiously looking on his radar to make sure there were no stormies walking by who would force a customs check on him
or just being a bounty hunter .. hunting players who were DESIGNED TO BE more powerful than you ... jedi ... whom you had to use stealth and cunning to kill ... following them around from backwater city to backwater city ... sitting in a cantina but not being noticed because you were there in a crowd of 50 people ... finally tracking him to his jedi guild's small town ... and catching off guard in front of his city hall and killing him with the help of your hunter droids ...
or camping in tatooine ... krayt hunting ... or hunting bantha or dewback for whatever meat or hide was in cycle ... having a contract to sell millions of units to one of the bigger armorsmiths on that planet ....
and while camping running into another group of 20 players ( YES 20 PLAYERS BACK THEN!!!! to a group!!!) who would warn you of a stormtrooper squadron looming over a dune hill in the distance, who sat by your fire for a while to tell you about their hunt .. and how it went .. how many pearls they had found or how much meat they collected ... ...
or maybe a smaller group of bounty hunters on swoop, carrying a guild tag you knew WELL was known for being murderous, whos membership consisited of only hunters, and reputable ones at that ... who may have come after your friend who was a jedi in hiding .. just trying to finish his training without trouble ...
these days are long gone .... this sort of DEPTH is no longer present in SWG.. and even though its a game this was the world a lot of us played in man ... it became more than a game .. it really became an RP experience whether we were RP'ers or not ... and that whole world was ripped away by SOE ... before we were able to get our fill of it ..