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75% Chance That SOE/Sigil Talks Will Fail
jonawiki
Member UncommonPosts: 41
It's ominous that Brad bothered to break the news unprovoked that Sigil and SOE are in possible acquisition talks and more than a week has passed with nothing but radio silence.
Brad volunteered the news that acquisition talks were underway only because he felt that a conclusion was imminent. But the fact that we have heard nothing means that something has gone wrong.
I think there's a very good chance one of two things will happen:
(1) The SOE acquisition of Sigil will fall through and Sigil will go bankrupt and shut Vanguard down.
(2) SOE will buy Sigil with abhorrent deal terms. Examples would include: layoffs at Sigil, reducing the number of races/classes so that dev management is easier (i.e. NGE 2.0) and implementation of Station Exchange (officially sanctioned power leveling and gold farming). The Station Exchange idea becomes even more possible because of the hiring of Christensen as VP of Biz Dev from IGE.
Thoughts?
Comments
ill be happy if the current plans go trough
wich are:
SOE dev takes over
SOE doe what sigil didnt and make this game playable
i WILL give it another month after the relaunch, but for now im done with this game
Why is people continue to draw parallels between SOE, Vanguard and NGE? Just because it happened to SWG in no way means it will happen to Vanguard. The situation with SWG at the time was a totally different kettle of fish to what we have with Vanguard right now. It's almost like you people want it to happen. Get over it Guys, it ain't gonna!
I seem to recall someone saying something about flaming... /scratches head
Now who could that have been?
Hmm.
These talks would likely take a while for the lawyers to hammer out all the fine details once a price was agreed upon.
There's also the fact that it's unlikely SOE will allow the game to go belly-up then tell their Station Access subscribers. "Oops, nevermind, we're going back to $24.99"
That said, SOE couldn't simply back out of the deal without consequence. They've allowed Vanguard to become a financial gamble for themselves as well, even though it's success or failure is only dire for Sigil.
Why would layoffs occur? Well you could consider that some layoffs might or already have occurred regardless of how the SOE deal pans out, since companies tend to regularly reshuffle when business forecasts change. For a company with only one product generating revenue that didn't go as planned, and released under a do or die premise anyway, I'd say Sigil has already thought of a few ways to suck in their waist.
In relation to the SOE deal, I don't see any widespread layoffs occurring unless SOE foresees a lot of redundancy in acquiring Sigil. I'm guessing SOE will carry out some layoffs if they have to take in 100+ game designers, artists and programmers. It just makes sense that a MMO developer swallowing a MMO developer just might see some unnecessary amount of redundancy.
As far as any NGE like class cut backs...probably not. What's the point? They all fit neatly in their four archetypes, and in general the tried and true mold of fantasy MMOs. Scaling back races though I could see and would actually appreciate, especially if it'd help devote resources to giving any animal races beast-like animations and in general improve animations across the board. There's also the matter that there's too many starting locations as is, and redundancy of beginning quests.
Station Exchange? Probably going to happen in an acquisition scenario. Why would SOE care about Brad's personal ethics over their already established business ethics? SOE will impose upon Sigil, not vice-versa.
Interestingly, I have found a lot of people who want that; I should note that I am not necessarily one of them. I simply see advantages and disadvantages of extensive SOE involvement.
Nevertheless, I think "predictions" based on assumptions are always a dreadful thing.
I seem to recall someone saying something about flaming... /scratches head
Now who could that have been?
Hmm.
These talks would likely take a while for the lawyers to hammer out all the fine details once a price was agreed upon.
Well there all sorts of so far unsubstantiated rumors floating around right now.One thing for certain though is that when SOE agreed to pull Sigils butt out of the fire when MS dropped them , the contract had all sorts of clauses in it such as board seats, minimum performance (monetary) and such. Anyone with a lick of sense knows that SOE has Brad by the short hairs and I bet he is standing on the tips of his toes. I imagine the talks are going something like here is what we offer now suck it up.
SOE will not let the game die simply because of the PR backlash, hell half the gaming community already believes SOE is the anti christ of gaming. If this does not work out and VG folds you better believe they will spin it so that it looks as if it was all Sigils fault and they tried to save the game.
I miss DAoC
It could take WEEKS to hammer out all the finer points on price, what employees will be absorbed, what food will be served at the going away party for Brad. Tons of details that they take a good amount of time to hammer out and WILL NOT share it with the public.
I wouldn't expect any real details to come fourth for at least a couple weeks. That IS unless the rumors are they had this possibility already fleshed out when they partnered with $OE.
You do realize it took $OE a whole year to get SWG into the unplayable mess it is NOW.
A Month? Really? That's $14.99 shot down the tubes. Better than the $179.88 the nge fans wasted though.
Shayde - SWG (dead)
Proud member of the Cabal.
It sounds great, so great in fact, I pitty those who canceled
I don't like it when you say things. - A Vanguard fan who does too.
09f911029d74e35bd84156c5635688c0
So that leaves 2 options. One is Sony tells Sigil to go pack sand, don't buy the game, and it is suffocated under that mountain of debt until Sigil goes under and SoE picks up the rights for pennies, then left completely undeveloped further and fades away to MxO levels. I think that's the most likely.
The second is that SoE buys it, but for a much smaller amount than Sigil owes. This leaves Sony with a much, much smaller amount that needs to be made back, and they will be happy with it hovering at the bottom of the popularity barrel with the rest of their games, so it gets no further development or real effort put into it.
Of course, many people think Sony will buy it, keep the already proven incompetent development team aboard, and spend millions more to try to make it something more than 50-60,000 people are willing to suffer through. That is pure, pie-in-the-sky wishful thinking. There is no precedent to suggest anything like that will ever happen. I think, whether the talks succeed or fail, that what it is is all it will ever be.
And beyond that, I don't care.
Bite me, Turbine.
It is profound rhetorical speculation used by some to seize yet another opportunity to bash Vanguard or SOE (separately or simultaneously) cloaked in a "prediction" about all the dreadful things that will happen.
I even saw an "I told ya so" topic that brought the level of narcissism I have seen in my lifetime to a new level. Some people were basking in this perverse glory in thinking (believing) they told us anything.
A Month? Really? That's $14.99 shot down the tubes. Better than the $179.88 the nge fans wasted though.
Hi Shayde, long time listener, first time responder. I'm a big fan.
I would normally agree with your statement above EXCEPT that Brad announced that details of the acquisition would be released "in a few days". Well, it's been a week, and nada.
I've been involved in acquisitions before too. The CEOs on both sides NEVER volunteer info (like acquisition talks are actually happening) unless they're forced to or unless they're absolutely sure that something is imminent.
So Brad volunteers info that SOE is in talks to acquire his company. He says that more info on details will emerge in next few days. And then... radio silence. Given other exogenous factors (like what a crap game it is and nobody plays it), I have come to the dire conclusions that I have.
It is exactly this that I am talking about. LOL.
Your socalled "predictions" ("conclusions" in your case) are quite predictable.
I wouldn't be a bit surprised if Brad was out of the loop much less out of a job.
The "discussions" are most likely between SoE and the fools that gave Brad 35 million dollars. Who now are trying to figure out how to get some of thier money back.
Who has money ... well SoE does. They won't be giving up any more then they have to.
Probably have SoE making a real low ball offer and the investors scrambling to find something better.
Pretty hard to put a real value on the software (broken software at that). Obviously the game is cash flow negative.
Brad is saying I just need more money and time. But his creditablity is shot. Heck his Vision is shot. His Vanbois have done him in.
Heck SoE will probably have to spend another 5 million on this game just to try to fix it.
The whole negotiation is undoubtably a mess. So messy the investors might just bite the bullet and give Brad another year and millions more to keep trying. Though typically venture capitial investors know better then to throw good money after bad.
I sure would like to know who funded this fiasco.
It is exactly this that I am talking about. LOL.
Your socalled "predictions" ("conclusions" in your case) are quite predictable.
wow lol when do you shut your trap? when do you find the time to play your so called perfect game?
the funny thing is everyones predictions have come true so far with everything sony has done with all their crap games.
thats right i said it. vangaurd is sony's game. not sigils. sony. prediction? yes very much so. true yes i believe so. that is my opinion and many, many other peoples prediction as well. you are so full of your self you do sound like a shill or brad or a sony rep. what ever or who ever you are, we the mmo players do not fall for your lines of pure bs. i mean only the people i listed above are the worlds best spin doctors. and you sir/mam are exactly that except we dont fall for spin and lies. much like a guy named blacsac from the dark and light days has there ever been a loose mouthed fan boy tool trying to manipulate people into buying crap covered in icing sold as a million dollar cake. now how about you go find some time to actually play your game instead of living on here waiting for the next mmo to come like the rest of us.
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A Month? Really? That's $14.99 shot down the tubes. Better than the $179.88 the nge fans wasted though.
Hi Shayde, long time listener, first time responder. I'm a big fan.
I would normally agree with your statement above EXCEPT that Brad announced that details of the acquisition would be released "in a few days". Well, it's been a week, and nada.
I've been involved in acquisitions before too. The CEOs on both sides NEVER volunteer info (like acquisition talks are actually happening) unless they're forced to or unless they're absolutely sure that something is imminent.
So Brad volunteers info that SOE is in talks to acquire his company. He says that more info on details will emerge in next few days. And then... radio silence. Given other exogenous factors (like what a crap game it is and nobody plays it), I have come to the dire conclusions that I have.
I think he was being vague on the "few days" and he said what he did at the time because the cat was already out of the bag.
There's no chance in the world that he would have said ANYTHING if the deal wasn't already 90% done. He gained nothing but bad press over it. I highly doubt that the deal is falling through, they just had to say what they said because saying NOTHING when the rumor came out would have just made things worse with the already skiddish playerbase.
I'd expect word Monday.
Shayde - SWG (dead)
Proud member of the Cabal.
It sounds great, so great in fact, I pitty those who canceled
I don't like it when you say things. - A Vanguard fan who does too.
09f911029d74e35bd84156c5635688c0
The Old Timers Guild
Laid back, not so serious, no drama.
All about the fun!
www.oldtimersguild.com
An opinion should be the result of thought, not a substitute for it. - Jef Mallett
EQ1, EQ2, SWG, SWTOR, GW, GW2 CoH, CoV, FFXI, WoW, CO, War,TSW and a slew of free trials and beta tests
So just relax let it go and wake up to reality the majority of the ppl who has played vanguard, included myself aint happy with Siguil-Mcquaid work, That aint hate, trolling or flaming...
I payd $60 for this game lvl up a char to lvl 20, i think myself and others who are actually interested in the game can speculate, we all know isnt big deal.
Im here because i believe the game has potential, im curius whats comming on, wondering if they are gonna give us something to re install other than game // graphic performance. (having my helm displying for example).
Maybe we should wait for new facts to come up and not post the same speculations of what might happen every few hours. Its quite pointless.
People don't ask questions to get answers - they ask questions to show how smart they are. - Dogbert
Fun? .. for some, so why botter? let them be.
You said you want SOE to take over VG because they'll make it playable?
WoW, unbelievable comment. You obviously don't know SOE as well as most players here. SOE is a company that has the distinction of owning the reputation for taking games and virtually destroying them. They have a stable of games no one wants to play, hence SWG as well as others.
SOE taking a game and making it playable. That will be the day, maybe when it rains dollars but not in our lifetime.
b
Wtf man, if it wasn't for SoE you wouldn't be playing Vanguard.
You guys hate SoE so so much that you're oblivious to that????
It's thanks to SoE that you're even able to play Sigil's POS. Noone else wanted to release it.
They just did........................SoE was the only company that made VG playable by supporting servers and funds for it...........you remember Microsoft or any other company didn't want it....don't you?
You wouldn't be playing VG if it wasn't for them.
I miss DAoC
When did Mcquaid say anything about SoE's aquiring VG or Sigil? I don't recall the word aquasition being used in the last post Mcquaid made.
An example of a hypocrit would be saying that Mcquaid missinformed and lied about such and such; then taking information and then lying about it as well. A lot of people here continue to condemn the man for doing the exact same thing they themselves continue to do an a daily bases, even hourly.
Mcquaid never said they were working on a deal for SoE to aquire the game or Sigil, only that further involvment was needed from SoE. This could mean any number of things from selling a portion of the IP rights to the selling of the full IP or even a portion to the full controll of Sigil itself. Hell, for as much as anyone here knows they could simply be working out a deal that would provide Sigil with increased developement to push for a relaunch.
75% chance huh? You know, I've been rubbing my crystal balls all day and I keep coming up with a completely dif. result. I guess mine are broken.