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Is Vanguard's population still declining?
danbala
Member Posts: 181
About three weeks ago VG's lead designer Dave Gilbertson revealed that the TOTAL active population for both PvP servers was down to about 600 accounts. He also said that populations on one server had dropped by 30% over the previous three weeks. That came as a shock to people waiting on the sidelines to find out if the game would survive.
What is the latest word on the server populations? Have they continued to drop by 30%? How many players are on at peak hours?
Comments
I don't think the active numbers can decline so much more (And
Allah for that, should be an effective warning for the devs/publishers so they don't give out more unfinished games)
PVP servers never were that popular compared to the PVE ones, (well,if any VG server could be considered as being popular) so the news isn't that surprising (if true).
I'm sure the population will continue to suffer until SOE gets around to declaring the game "fixed" and ready for round 2.
"True friends stab you in the front." | Oscar Wilde
"I need to finish" - Christian Wolff: The Accountant
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
There is going to be a server merge soon, so we probably can get a better view of the pop then. I never see anyone on the FFA PVP server I play but see an occasional message in world chat.
The last we heard was a month ago with less than 20k active accounts. People have still been leaving but the rate of people leaving seems to be declining so maybe the population is stabilizing. But I have noticed a greater number of people becoming upset with SOE and the perception that SOE could careless if the game fails and is doing almost nothing to improve the game seems to be growing. In other words the honeymoon for SOE appears to be over. Hopefully SOE will wake up and start putting some resources into this game other than sending out recruiting letters to VG players to play Eq2 for free.
Can't speak to PvP. But the PvE server Shirdeth had a decline that leveled off abouth a month ago. Since then it's been stable in my opinion. In fact, the last week has seen more activity as people seem to be returning as a result of the bug fixes and performance tweaks... or maybe just in anticipation of the merge and Game Update #2.
According to SOE (the owner and publisher) VG population is in decline, if the rot stopped and VG started gaining subs I'm sure they'd let us all know.
"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience"
CS Lewis
I had no idea that SOE was starting to give out population numbers on their games. What source are you getting the 600 accounts information from? I'm currently playing, but I cannot give you a yes or no on this question, since I don't have access to population numbers. Anyone who says otherwise is misinforming you. People can speculate, but speculations are based on personal experience. Peoples experiences differ because people play at different times, different servers, different races, and at different levels. Some people aren't guilded, while others are. Those are all factors that go into a persons speculation, that your ordinary poster won't bother to mention.
This is what I can tell you. I play on the Florendyl server, am a Thestran Human; lvl 9 Paladin; lvl 9 Crafter; skill 90 Mining & Quarrying; skill 30 in Diplomacy. I play pretty much all day, since I am going to school online at home and don't have to work. My playtimes are PST btw. It is rare that I can find a group around my level, but I have gotten in a couple. It is also hard, but not as hard as those that are under lvl 17 & above lvl 40, to get a group between levels 17-40. There are almost constant groups running for the lvl 17-40 range though, but I assume not enough groups, since people are always shouting for LFM for their group.
Things are much more active if you are in a large guild. Every guild that I've had the pleasure of encountering in this game has been a good one, so you really can't make a wrong choice there. Just choose one who is active in the game, doing the things that you want to do. I picked Valor, because of its size and maturity. Oh, and population levels on all servers are listed as low.
That's about it,
Thank you
MMORPG's w/ Max level characters: DAoC, SWG, & WoW
Currently Playing: WAR
Preferred Playstyle: Roleplay/adventurous, in a sandbox game.
He got his info from an SOE official press release by VGs lead designer, he isn't misinformed.
"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience"
CS Lewis
He's likely pulling it from this post from the lead developer of the game:
forums.station.sony.com/vg/posts/list.m
In fact, he's overstating the dev's own numbers. According to Dave Gilbertson's post, the combined peak numbers for the Team PvP servers was anywhere from 400-450 accounts total, and that was back on July 11th. Citing 600 active players now is being generous.
I had no idea that SOE was starting to give out population numbers on their games. What source are you getting the 600 accounts information from?
He posted it here: forums.station.sony.com/vg/posts/list.m
Honestly, I was surprised to see it to. Usually, the studio avoids such numbers to protect the appearance of viability for the game. It gave me the impression that things were too far gone for even the developer to pretend anymore.
The last we heard was a month ago with less than 20k active accounts. People have still been leaving but the rate of people leaving seems to be declining so maybe the population is stabilizing.
Yes, I assumed that too. But the 30% attrition number from Gilbertson was expressly listed as being after they had already decided to go down to only four servers. (Which is the point that most people get the 20k number from). It made it seem as if attrition had actually accellerated.
BTW, most of the anecdotal information from current players seems to be that attrition has stabilized. But I note that we receieved similar estimates that actually coincided with the 30% reduction.
I had no idea that SOE was starting to give out population numbers on their games. What source are you getting the 600 accounts information from?
He posted it here: forums.station.sony.com/vg/posts/list.m
Honestly, I was surprised to see it to. Usually, the studio avoids such numbers to protect the appearance of viability for the game. It gave me the impression that things were too far gone for even the developer to pretend anymore.
I read a 30% decrease in the RP server since the poll was taken, which is why they are combining it with the other PvE servers. I also read that the other PvE servers had a loss of 10%-30%. No original numbers were given to base that percentage off of though.
The 400-450 people reported as being active, was on the 2 Team PvP servers, and that was at peak time. Not total subscribers playing on the PvP servers. This had nothing to do with the FFA PvP server populations.
So, while I do think those numbers are sad, they still are pretty obscure. Was it a 30% increase of 30k subs or 10k subs or 70k subs. They never said. Peak time numbers matter to those who playing during peak times. They didn't when those peak times were either. There are several time zones in the world with each claiming a peak time of their own.
I'm not trying to sugar coat this game, I am just saying lets deal with facts here when throwing numbers around. People, especially those on the fence are sensitive to things like this. I wouldn't want them running off because the wrong numbers were given, just like you wouldn't want them flocking to the game because 1 Vanboi said there is a huge increase of subs this past week.
MMORPG's w/ Max level characters: DAoC, SWG, & WoW
Currently Playing: WAR
Preferred Playstyle: Roleplay/adventurous, in a sandbox game.
Gilbertson also said that they expected the population to continue to decline so they had to merge the rp server. They have a long term plan for this game but there will be very little improvement short term. I've been hoping for the merges to rekindle my spark for this game because it has become very boring, and where someone said every guild they've dealt with has been good every guild I've dealt with has fallen apart so it works both ways.
I'm thinking maybe this will be a better game in a years time or more but even then I cant see it being much more than a slightly updated eq2 clone.
I all fairness, I will give my personal prediction of this game. Keep in mind that I love this game and I play it.
I think that this game is in danger of being shut down if subscriber numbers don't improve. Going only off of members opinions, the original EQ has more subscribers than VG. VG seems to be in the same boat subscriber wise as SWG is right now.
In my opinion, SOE should be giving VG weekly bug fixes and monthly content patches. Overhauls on broken systems or major quest lines is okay to do every 6 weeks. I understand that SOE wants the server merger to be done right and I want them to take the time they need to do it right, but this also will backfire on them. As time goes by, people get impatient waiting for the merges, because people want the merges now so they can do their group quests. What good is a merge a month from now when everyone that is still playing has leveled up already?
In a way, I feel that VG was bought as a testing ground for their other products. Maybe to see what works and what doesn't work in VG, before they try it in their cash cows. This is pure speculation of course and I am basing that speculation off the vibe I am getting from them.
WAR and AoC are different games than VG, so I don't feel that those games threaten VG at all. Those that are leaving VG to play WAR and AoC were going to do so in the first place. Those people are game hoppers and can't really be considered your core community.
VG is a EQ type game with more features and updated graphics. This would have killed both of the EQ games if it was released finished, but because it wasn't, it will be a niche game if it survives this next year. I can see VG reaching 100k subs someday if managed properly, but there is a lot of work that needs done on SOE's part. There is also a lot of action needed taken by the gaming community as a whole. VG really does need an upper mid ranged to high end computer to run at a widely acceptable standard. Once the gaming community as a whole updates their computers, people will start playing VG if it is still alive. Gamers can't help but want to try out their new rig on something that is very demanding on their hardware. Sigil didn't anticipate the majority of the community being unwilling to update their systems to play their game. That was a big shot in the foot as well.
This game has a year I think. In that year it needs to stabalize at an acceptable sub rate or rise or it wouldn't be illogical to think that SOE would shut it down.
Lord knows I hope not, because I do love this game.
MMORPG's w/ Max level characters: DAoC, SWG, & WoW
Currently Playing: WAR
Preferred Playstyle: Roleplay/adventurous, in a sandbox game.
I all fairness, I will give my personal prediction of this game. Keep in mind that I love this game and I play it.
I think that this game is in danger of being shut down if subscriber numbers don't improve. Going only off of members opinions, the original EQ has more subscribers than VG. VG seems to be in the same boat subscriber wise as SWG is right now.
In my opinion, SOE should be giving VG weekly bug fixes and monthly content patches. Overhauls on broken systems or major quest lines is okay to do every 6 weeks. I understand that SOE wants the server merger to be done right and I want them to take the time they need to do it right, but this also will backfire on them. As time goes by, people get impatient waiting for the merges, because people want the merges now so they can do their group quests. What good is a merge a month from now when everyone that is still playing has leveled up already?
In a way, I feel that VG was bought as a testing ground for their other products. Maybe to see what works and what doesn't work in VG, before they try it in their cash cows. This is pure speculation of course and I am basing that speculation off the vibe I am getting from them.
WAR and AoC are different games than VG, so I don't feel that those games threaten VG at all. Those that are leaving VG to play WAR and AoC were going to do so in the first place. Those people are game hoppers and can't really be considered your core community.
VG is a EQ type game with more features and updated graphics. This would have killed both of the EQ games if it was released finished, but because it wasn't, it will be a niche game if it survives this next year. I can see VG reaching 100k subs someday if managed properly, but there is a lot of work that needs done on SOE's part. There is also a lot of action needed taken by the gaming community as a whole. VG really does need an upper mid ranged to high end computer to run at a widely acceptable standard. Once the gaming community as a whole updates their computers, people will start playing VG if it is still alive. Gamers can't help but want to try out their new rig on something that is very demanding on their hardware. Sigil didn't anticipate the majority of the community being unwilling to update their systems to play their game. That was a big shot in the foot as well.
This game has a year I think. In that year it needs to stabalize at an acceptable sub rate or rise or it wouldn't be illogical to think that SOE would shut it down.
Lord knows I hope not, because I do love this game.
I think you have some good points, I get the impression too its just an experiment now. It was smart of them to buy it, getting rid of Everquest 2's main competition and they can look at some of Vanguard's features, what works what doesn't, and implement it into Everquest 2. And the fact SOE gave out many months of free playtime in Everquest 2, their best MMO to offer, to many Vanguard players gives me the impression SOE know that Vanguard is just going to continue going downhill. I really think its too late for Vanguard now. A year or more is too much to wait for it to get better other MMOs are going to take people's interest away.
The lead designer is a troll! He just hates VG and should go to a game he likes!I'm not surprised. I figured with them announcing that the team PvP was going to be merged into a single FFA PvP that there would have been around 4 people on them by time of the merge. I know I wouldn't stick around.
I'm on Varking (team pvp) and the population is pretty sad.
But I'm actually seeing more people around the last week or so. It may be that they are the only other people besides me on the server. So just based on my unreliable, unscientific findings the exodus seems to have at the very least slowed down.
It has been increasing a little bit.
I think a lot of people tried other games and came back to Vanguard.
Correction - both TEAM PVP servers, one of which is EURO. Tharridon (the FFA PVP server) has a healthy population, and one would assume that it was substantially higher than both TEAM PVP servers thus why the FFA ruleset is staying, and TEAM is going.
With that said, the population on Tharridon seems to have declined a little over the past month - but most people I have spoken to will be coming back, once the server merges FINALLY happen.
Hmm. Doesn't that defeat the purpose of PvP?
if they merge the servers that it will be a littlebit decent population again, it will horrify the performance again and make the rest leave aswell
I all fairness, I will give my personal prediction of this game. Keep in mind that I love this game and I play it.
I think that this game is in danger of being shut down if subscriber numbers don't improve. Going only off of members opinions, the original EQ has more subscribers than VG. VG seems to be in the same boat subscriber wise as SWG is right now.
In my opinion, SOE should be giving VG weekly bug fixes and monthly content patches. Overhauls on broken systems or major quest lines is okay to do every 6 weeks. I understand that SOE wants the server merger to be done right and I want them to take the time they need to do it right, but this also will backfire on them. As time goes by, people get impatient waiting for the merges, because people want the merges now so they can do their group quests. What good is a merge a month from now when everyone that is still playing has leveled up already?
In a way, I feel that VG was bought as a testing ground for their other products. Maybe to see what works and what doesn't work in VG, before they try it in their cash cows. This is pure speculation of course and I am basing that speculation off the vibe I am getting from them.
WAR and AoC are different games than VG, so I don't feel that those games threaten VG at all. Those that are leaving VG to play WAR and AoC were going to do so in the first place. Those people are game hoppers and can't really be considered your core community.
VG is a EQ type game with more features and updated graphics. This would have killed both of the EQ games if it was released finished, but because it wasn't, it will be a niche game if it survives this next year. I can see VG reaching 100k subs someday if managed properly, but there is a lot of work that needs done on SOE's part. There is also a lot of action needed taken by the gaming community as a whole. VG really does need an upper mid ranged to high end computer to run at a widely acceptable standard. Once the gaming community as a whole updates their computers, people will start playing VG if it is still alive. Gamers can't help but want to try out their new rig on something that is very demanding on their hardware. Sigil didn't anticipate the majority of the community being unwilling to update their systems to play their game. That was a big shot in the foot as well.
This game has a year I think. In that year it needs to stabalize at an acceptable sub rate or rise or it wouldn't be illogical to think that SOE would shut it down.
Lord knows I hope not, because I do love this game.
LOL! WAR and AOC don't threaten VG hehe...... No they don't it's not worth it to "Threaten" an slmost dead horse. And no people won't "Come back" when they update thier computers........ Their are plenty of better games they will go to . WoW, EQ2, AOC,WAR, LOTR ect.
I don't think SoE has anything to lose by publishing the figures. If it fails then they did there best but the patient was near death when they took over. If they turn it around then they will be able to post the new numbers and point to how things are getting better (so come and join etc.). Good tactic by them imo
Sadly I agree with you. The problem with this game is not just the low numbers. We've seen SOE keep games alive with low numbers (like Matrix Online). The problem is the huge cost needed to get the game operational combined with the low subs.
By way of comparison look at it this way. Both VG and EQ2 have support staffs of about 50 full time developers. But EQ2 has (at the very least ) about 150k subs. VG by comparison has something less than 20k subs (at best). That means that VG is not financially tenable at the current staffing levels. But if they cut back the staff the game will never get fixed. . . .
He's likely pulling it from this post from the lead developer of the game:
forums.station.sony.com/vg/posts/list.m
In fact, he's overstating the dev's own numbers. According to Dave Gilbertson's post, the combined peak numbers for the Team PvP servers was anywhere from 400-450 accounts total, and that was back on July 11th. Citing 600 active players now is being generous.
combinded peak numbers is not equal to active players. 100% of active players are not always on at peak times. And the decline in a pvp population on a heavily pve game totally misconstrues reality.
I am not saying VG numbers are increasing or declining or even stabalizing, I am just saying that people are twisting numbers to validate the assumptions and opinions they had. A Vanbois will twist numbers show an increase in population, while a hater will twist the numbers to show a decline.
It is more likely what another poster said, SOE is going to let us know when the numbers are bouncing back. And in the same vane, they aren't giving up on the game until the game is working. If it works and is polished and still cannot attract a stable population that keeps them financially in the black, we will know by the game's shut down. But I highly doubt they would have invested in this game if they weren't committed to make it work and didn't see its potential for making money. They could be wrong, they have been before.