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Now that EQ2 and WoW are fading out....
Laneo
Member Posts: 359
....DnL vs Vanguard vs Guild Wars...err, scratch GW..Its not a TRUE MMO, because all you do is go on missions..go back to sell..blah..blah, and its free? yeah right..you think that now till your hooked and then they lay it on you...anyway...GW wont last long so...
DnL vs Vanguard is the Future!
Lets get ready to rumble:)
Nobody is perfect...My name is Nobody
Comments
I doubt either will be a huge success. DnL doesn't have a big enough name behind it. And vanguard will just rely on it's made by the creator of EQ. Vanguard will "succeed" But neither will take over WoW's, or EQ's spot on the top of the US MMO market.
I seriously doubt this.
I'm so sick of all the anti-WoW talks in this forum.
There are also hard-core Wow fans who keep spamming other forums posting their games are excellent and unique by critizing other games so harshly..I've even seen this sort of fans in Ultima Online Forum
I think both side should be calm and stop trying to blacken games just for the sake of critizing so as to draw attention
...
1) Neither EQ2 nor WoW are "fading out."
2) "Guild Wars" will never have a monthly fee, and it has potential to be successful (as a PvP-based Diablo game, not as a MMORPG).
3) Neither DnL nor Vanguard will get more subscribers than WoW, and of the two only Vanguard has a chance at surpassing EQ2.
I'm talking strictly in terms of sales and subscribers here, not in terms of which games are "better.'
Hello all,
I'll answer my thoughts to your question right after I get something off my mind.
// ********************************************************************
// start.Sarcasm is used to determine the Boolean Logic State of the english expression
// stated above. Will also return a sarcastic remark about the validity of the statement.
// Copyright 2004 Author: Carrara
// ********************************************************************
function start.Sarcasm(BOOL);
{
{
while
Guild Wars is being made by the Original Creators of Diablo and Dialbo 2="TRUE"
&
Guild Wars will last long seeing that Diablo 2 is extremely popular to this day="TRUE";
}
else
you're wrong;
}
[NOTE - No actual source code was used to create this poorly written and non-functional routine]
Guild Wars will definatly capture it's intended audience as well as capture corporate attention with their technology to deliver content online without huge overheads in downloadable packages. They have repeatedly demonstrated their ability to stream content to broadband users' computers at little to no performance drops to service. This doesn't make the game better than others. But it does make more accessible. The game quality will speak for itself. And so far, it's screams "I'm a Winner". IMHO.
Vanguard is going to be very well received due to the names behind the project. I believe that it will take a portion of the existing market back from games like WoW and EQ2 because of the inovative ideas that they are bringing to release. It's been rumoured that Sigil Games' successive on-time milestone achievements will cause the game to be delivered in perfect keeping with their projected release date and desired features. *This is pure hearsay and I have no official sources to back up that up. Maybe MMORPG.COM could get an exclusive invite to their Sigil's studio?* wow, talk about dropping a hint!
As for Dark and Light? The proof will be in the putting. I mean, I'm not holding my breath to see a strong showing on the part of Dark and Light. IMO, there is just too much novelty in this game.
The fact that NP Cube failed with their in house engine and tools to create what they desired after 3 years of dev cycle. Bought a 3rd party engine and needed to port all the assests, interface the new engine with their network and rendering libs adding 8 months to their dev cycle. Pushed beta back further than it already was. These are all signs that they are going to have a very hard time accessing the market share that they may have been able to without so many setbacks.
Even with all that, I for one, wish them the best and will be on the watch once the public beta begins. Cause the only bad thing for MMOs, are bad ones.
Carrara
Since D&L will be released about a year before Vanguard, there is no point in comparing the two.
i agree with ghoul31, the games release dates are not close to each other so the competition will be different. also if we're gonna talk about far future games like vanguard why not talk about hero's journey?
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First off WoW is not the top mmorpg it is 4th on the list nor is it a very good one. EQ2 is about 6th on the mmorpg chart and that speaks for how good it is. I'm glad other people enjoy them but lets be honest.
Now that we understand that lets proceed
Vanguard will be a huge release. The people who are making it have a proven track record and they have major money (MS) backing them. It will dwarf WoW and probably surpass the original EQ numbers quite rapidly. Whether it will approach Lineage 2 numbers remains to be seen but its a long shot at best. The L2 market is just so big, but if anyone can close the gap it will be the microsoft money behind Vanguard.
I'm just hoping that we get out of this cookie cutter realm of games we have atm. I don't find WoW or EQ2 entertaining at all. They both look nice and play nice but they just dont generate interest from me. Mainly because i felt like i've done it before. I don't believe either will be around in 2 or 3 years and if they are their communities will be pretty small.
The games i think will survive the long haul are Saga of Ryzom, Dark and Light and Vanguard. Saga of Ryzom and Dark and Light will have a hard time converting their originality into content because neither company has experience in doing it but they both have a great platform to build on. They're both original games with open ended systems that allow for alot of new and original content to be added. If they can put out content before they lose their player base then they will be tough to compete with. Vanguard is more of a cookie cutter game rather than a creative game but i think the makers and the backers have a proven track record of huge success.
just one junkies opinion
Make a difference!
I hope no compilers were hurt during the making of that pseudo code Carrara!
WoW and EQ2 certainly aren't "fading out". From the published reports i've seen they are both expanding their monthly subscribers. There was a newyork times article that ran before the EU launch a few weeks back and it stated 700,000 copies sold for WoW. On the world of warcraft main page i think they said over 300,000 copies sold the first week after the EU launch. I'm not sure where the Korean launch fits in those numbers. Thus it appears that sales for WoW are over 1million now. I'm not sure on sales figures for EQ2 bug according to bruce woodcock over at mmorgchart.com their playerbase is also growing.
That isn't to say they are good MMORPGs. I have played both and wasn't impressed with either. I think WoW is very well polished, but it brings absolutely nothing new to the MMO genre. It's just a better clone. I'm not sure if you mean they aren't good games or if they are just unoriginal. As much as i was unimpressed with WoW, i was in total disbelief when i played EQ2. SOE and Vivendi have demonstrated are good at bolting on nice graphics while at the same time dumbing down gameplay to maximize the number of retail boxes sold.
In reality they could care less if you were a paying subscriber or not. They already have your $50 from the retail box. Gross revenues from WoW alone exceed $50 million. 1,000,000x50=50,000,000 GROSS revenues and this doesn't include the collector editions that were about $80 i think. Sure it took them 5 years to develop WoW, and yes i'm aware that most industry experts say big titles cost high 7-figure to low 8-figure to create nowadays. With 50+ million in upfront gross revenues and 15x500,000=7.5 million per month in recurring revenue (assuming only a 50% conversion rate AND the korean players are paying closer to $24 per month compared to $15 here in the US) i would expect alot better products.
The sooner everyone pays their $50 and plays for a month or two and gets bored the sooner they can start on Starcraft 2 or diablo 3 so they can fill more retail boxes for us to buy. Go Go Vivendi!
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But your whole point about L2 is in reference to a totally different market. In the North American market the 5 biggest MMO's are WoW, EQ 1, FFXI, EQ 2, and SWG. L2 did not substain a large amount of its NA subscribers because of various issue's. (i.e botting, chinese farmers, etc)
If you are talking world wide numbers then WoW would be most likely in 5th place behind oversea's game L1, L2, RO, and FFXI.
In War - Victory.
In Peace - Vigilance.
In Death - Sacrifice.
Time in which the " no named "brands can hit the market in a big way like EQ1 did has come and gone.
The new breed mmorpg players need a brand name to make that game hit the 250k plus mark and the old time mmorpg players are either settled in an older mmorpg or retired from the scene,thus too few to populate a good " no named "brand to the tune for 250k plus.
So even if vanguard is the best ever mmorpg released i seriously doubt it will even hit 500k and thats to say it actually takesa mass number of players from EQ series since the maker of vanguard is the original creator of EQ.
If you look at the most popular (most bought) games of the last say 2 years you will notice its all brand names.
EQ2-hyped from EQ.Draws on mass number of EQ lovers
WoW-hyped from warcraft.Draws on a massive number of blizzard fans
SWG- draws on star wars.
FFXI-draws on final fantasy series
L2-draws on lineage
Heck look at all the new mmorpg coming out its based on some movie or book- MEO,matrix online,star trek online.And thats probably where the next big sales will come from.
one word IMPERATOR, down the road, i think it is hthe only game guaranteed sucess, just because Dark Ages of Camelot is easily more sucessful then any subscription MMORPG realised, in terms of how long it has high ratings, SWG's ratings go up and down, Everquest shot itself in the foot, and D2 was not subscription based. so i think it is just all time the most hugellly sucessful game, and everything else doesnt have the guaranteed sucess IMPERATOR from the makers of DAOC.
But dark and light might be the closest thing i have ever seen to the world from .hack/sign. but what might kill it is it is TOO big for some peoples taste i think with tis 25000 swuare miles of land mass, it would take at least a week to get from one end to another. other then that i cant see many flaws as of now.
vangaurd just seems like nothing new to me.
and my friend said guild wars beta sucked and it isnt a true MMORPG.
so im not betting on any of the three this thread is about, but i will be buying DnL.
98% of the teenage population does or has tried smoking pot. If you''re one of the 2% who hasn''t, copy & paste this in your signature.
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http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion.cfm/load/forums/loadforum/450/loadthread/44836/setstart/1/loadclass/143
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Never heard of Vanguard.
If I have heard about it, it didn't even register on the radar.
ALL NCSOFT GAMES ARE BANED IN N.A because....... the darn china players suck ......ncsoft sucks ......played l2 its weak very very very very very very very very (copy paste 1,000 times) lame... yes i said it lame lamer then youre dog with a gimped leg i hate ncsoft i will never ever ever (again times 1,000) play anthing that has to do with them any part of there company even the sub's GW is going to be a repete of L2 a beta program that you have to pay for and have to pay the chinese 14 bucks for a mil adena just to get new weapons that are obsolete by the time u get them u need the next lvl and another trip to ebay to buy more adena since after d grad expect to pay up to 25 mill for a EAR RING yes a ear ring , ncsoft has lost there mind in makeing items that exspensive and not have a good drop ratio oh wait whats this they added a server thats 2x drops and xp oh wow guess what its full none can get in its maxed out thats why i left and thats why i will never play a nc soft game ever ever ever ever ever (this time , times 1.2mill) again......................................................................................................................................
nc soft should go down in flames or stay asian based and stay away from NA since they have no idea what is what we expect and will tolerate in a game
_________________________
[Old] My City of Heroes Detailed Update List
http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion.cfm/load/forums/loadforum/450/loadthread/44836/setstart/1/loadclass/143
[OLD] - My Open Beta List and Review http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion.cfm/load/forums/loadforum/584/loadthread/34685/setstart/1/loadclass/35
They're mostly fanboys of other games and kids, They're rebellling against the mainstream just like everyone else.
Shadus
The lists here are so biased and off that they can't be legitimately used to determine anything... all the fanboys give straight 10s, all the "haters" give straight 1s, which ever side is in the majority tilts the numbers that way.
Then you get the people who try to offset someone elses review, the people who have never played the games that review them, etc...
You'd get a more accurate guess of "market appeal" by going by the sales numbers of the various games... and I honestly don't think thats a good measure either.
Shadus
Ah, a racist idiot. Gotta love that.
You know, I agree though, I mean, look at Square the final fantasy games sell like CRAP in the US because asian developers have no idea what kind of things american gamers would want.
Right.
COH is NC.
It's doing quite well in the us, and is probally the most inovative game to come out in the last 3 years.
Edit: Note I didn't say *best*, just it was a whole new genre, new playstyle really, new ideas, although its very dumbed down.
Shadus
I think EQ2 and WoW are mass market games and will have a large subscriber base for the next 2 yrs.
I don't think Vanguard will cause that much of a stir unless it does something different to WoW and EQ2. It does need to innovate to get huge market share. Otherwise what's really the point of buying Vanguard? However many misguided people are influenced by huge PR camaigns which i'm sure Microsoft will fund closer to release.
I think DnL will release with a fairly good subscriber base because of the innovation and features promised. If the game lives up to those promises then i can see the subscriber numbers expanding to reach EQ2 levels. Even with all the PR behind WoW and EQ2, if DnL is truly a more innovative game then all true mmorpg players will ply DnL. That is still a fairly large player base.
And the children and noobs will be left playing EQ2 and WoW. Which is also a fairly hefty player base.