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Why do so many people insist Blizzard fudges Sub numbers?
Holgranth
Member Posts: 380
A lot of people seem to be under the impression that Blizzard lies about subscriber numbers. If you are one of those people, why do you think that?
Is it because you hate WoW and you don’t want it to be as successful as Blizzard claims it is? Do you think that the game is crappy and there is no way that many people actually like it? What evidence do you actually have?
Dem hibbies! Dey be wrong!
Comments
I'd use the new expansion sales as my reason for them fudging the numbers. Link only 33 or so percent of players bought the new xpac and im sure at least 60+ percent of the people that are so called subbed could afford it. Blizz is fudging the numbers sumwhere.
p.s. yes i know this is just opening day numbers aswell
p.s. 2 add 2nd link to actually say that it was sales up to first 24 hours of launch not launch day link
The reason is because Blizzard has to make a choice when releasing subscription numbers
1. Totally discount all subscribers from China, even if they have paid in the last 30 days becasue they haven't paid the 'standard' $15/month
2. Include people from China who have paid in the past month, even if they paid less than $15/month.
they choose to include anyone who has paid in the past 30 days. Roughly 50% of the 13.5M subscribers pay per hour.
The problem mostly come from the ignorance of the people complaining though. First off, the hourly rate for WOW isn't that cheap and the servers in China are very competitive with western servers as far as raid progress. This means it is very likely that a lot of chinesse players end up paying MORE than $15/month. The wow-haters like to make it sound like China has 6 million people, all playing for 1 hour per month.
Then you have the other 'idiots' who constantly say things like " OMG, Blizzard is making $15 x 13,500,000 per month, why are there bugs".
Blizzard had to make a choice how to account for the 'pay per hour' people, they chose to include those that paid in the past 30 days. These announcement are 'marketing' so of course they want to use the biggest number possible.
The thing I always find annoying is how people can overlook when other games do the same thing. AOC right after release said they 'shipped 1.5M boxes'.. but those were boxes they 'shipped' to retailers, a large portion of which never sold. It didn't stop people from saying AOC sold 1.5M boxes. Warhammer during their launch, said something like 1M accounts were created the first day, but what they failed to mention was that you could pre-order the game and create an account without even putting down $5 or the pre-order.
It is what it is.. marketing. Blizzard had the choice to discount players who paid in the last 30 days, they didn't. They also clearly define what the number is they are using. It is not trial accounts, or even people in the first 30 days after buying a new box.. it is people who have paid to play the game in the last 30 days.
Ummm what?
Cataclysm also has not been released in China or most of Asia yet. Even fanboys like myself will tell you that about 50% of players come from markets where Cataclysm wasn't released.
So now lets go back to your statement and correct it. 50% off the 6M people who COULD buy Cataclysm BOUGHT it in the FIRST 24hrs after it was released. Let's futher clarify... everyone knows WOW is a very casual game... buying an expansion at the first possible moment isn't really a priority for a lot of players. Many people probably waited until their next trip to Walmart or whatever. Some people probably waited until the weekend (it was released on a tuesday).
When Blizzard starting making these press releases years ago. They had a choice not to include asian players even if they paid recently. Blizzard's press releases could have simply been the total number of people who paid $15/month. But is that really fair to Blizzard? Just ignore counting players because they use a different billing method?
Sorry: 'discount' = 'ignore'
3.3 million in the first 24 hours...
I think they are faking it!
That Guild Wars 2 login screen knocked up my wife. Must be the second coming!
Because they are.
60+% of Blizzard's "subscriptions" are not subscriptions, they are pay by the hour accounts from WoW China. These accounts are counted toward the 12 million or whatever players they claim to have if said account has been accessed in the past 30 days. Even if a player pays for one hour -- which apparently costs the equivilent of 10-15 cents or so -- and only logs in to check their mail and AH for 5 minutes in a month, they're counted as a "player". Even if said person has multiple such accounts and does so, each account is considered as a "player".
Yes, Blizzard does note this in their disclaimer when they release their financial reports and they report their subscriber numbers, but they're extremely deceptive about it when they use their "over 12 million players" marketing BS.
Blizzard is not fudging their numbers. They are very clear on their site (well, it was clear on the old site) in regard to what numbers make up those "sub" numbers. Have you ever read the WoW EULA/TOS? If nothing else, Blizzard is on the ball from their legal side.
It is the fanbois and fanboi sites that take the numbers out of context when arguing the popularity of WoW.
I miss the MMORPG genre. Will a developer ever make one again?
Explorer: 87%, Killer: 67%, Achiever: 27%, Socializer: 20%
So they have 12 Million players, some just play more than others and don't have to pay as much.
So they have 12 million players.
He who keeps his cool best wins.
I lol'd.
YEA! Well I know 70 people that came to WoW in the past 3 months and so my story > your story and we're all happy bunny rainbows.
He who keeps his cool best wins.
They have 5 million active subscriptions and 7 million pay by the hour accounts that have been accessed in the past 30 days.
Now, consider that WoW China has no trial, specifically because it's pay by the hour. No need to buy a boxed game, just pay the fee for an hour of gametime, and if you don't like the game you don't pay past that first hour. Yet, everytime someone "trials" the game like this, they're considered as a player because they "paid" something, even it was a miniscule amount.
Also consider that by only having to pay by the hour, many players often have multiple accounts, as they only need to worry about paying each account as they actually actively play them. Here getting a second account means $15 more a month. Over there, it costs nothing, because you're paying to access your second account at a given time and not paying for your other account/s while playing that one. Which again, skews the numbers higher than they would oetherwise be.
Now take the number of all of these "players" added up, particularly the overly infalted Asian market number, and spin it all together into a North American advertisement touting those players... Guess what, the majority of people who see such an advert are too ignorant to realize they're being lied to by omission of facts.
I'd be one of them.
And yeah, at least on the Blackhand server, it seems ALOT busier than it was in '06 when I last played.
Why does it matter if Blizzard has 100 subsribers or 10 trillion subscribers? The only people I ever see going around attempting to call out Blizzard for lying and cheating are those that are either completely jealous over what Blizzard has accomplished over the past few years, or are jealous over the fact that the game they are die hard fans of will never come close to the subscription numbers that WoW has. To everyone else it really should not matter.
If you like WoW then be happy it has a large player base, if you dont like it, then be happy whatever game you are playing has enough subscription numbers to keep it active. Games out there do not need millions of subscribers to be a successful game.
My Guild Wars 2 Vids
I've never heard anyone imply this.
If GM had kept up with technology like the computer industry has, we would all be driving $25 cars that got 1000 MPG - Bill Gates
So criticism means jelousy?
That's a rather skewed perception.
I play wow, shocking, I know. I don't hate it, but I don't think it's as amazing as some people try to spin it either. It's a decent game for what it is, but it could still be a heck of a lot better too.
I argue against the subscribers that Blizzard keeps trying to claim, because they are distorting the truth by omission of facts. Intentional misdirection, omission of facts, and plain old dishonesty is something that just generally bothers me out of principle, whether it's a person, governing body, or corporate entity.
How are those the only people you see calling BS on those numbers? I normally only see it in relation to a WoW fanboi that has posted the numbers as the reason that their game is better. This is usually followed with the McDonald's analogy...
Or you will see the numbers used as a reason that other games should be more like WoW. This is usually followed with the McDonald's analogy...
Generally speaking, the numbers are touted by somebody - the numbers are taken out of context by that person (not Blizzard) - and the person gets a kick me sign stapled to their forehead for doing so... usually with a McDonald's analogy...
I miss the MMORPG genre. Will a developer ever make one again?
Explorer: 87%, Killer: 67%, Achiever: 27%, Socializer: 20%
Amen! I am not a fan of WoW. Played it for a very short time and it just wasn't for me. I understand it is successful and that is great for Blizzard but I could really care less. The only people Blizzard are responsible to for reporting accurate numbers are shareholders everyone else should just let it go already.
So... They're only responsible to report accurate numbers to shareholders and everyone else should just take their word for it when Blizzard tries to flaunt their "OMG OVER 12 MILLION PLAYERS!" in pretty much every piece of marketing Blizzard churns out?
I don't know about you, but I prefer that companies at least be somewhat honest if they're trying to get my business.
Or do you believe that BP really cares and feels sorry for ruining the Gulph of Mexico and they're actually doing everything they can to make things better and prevent it from happening again?
Except there are 12 million people playing, the only difference is not all 12 million have what we consider "subscriptions". If they called it 12 million people playing instead of subscriptions, would that really change it?
In 2009 Blizzard reported 1.2 billion in generated revenue, which wouldnt add up if you counted ~12 million x $15 mo. When you do the math of what Chinese gamers pay per hour, cut out what NTES takes for their cut of the Chinese servers, then the math will add up for what they are claiming in player numbers.
The fact is, is that roughly 12 million people are playing around the world, they just arent all paying subscriptions. If you want to call them deceptive simply based on wording, then go ahead, but enough research out there has been done by 3rd party enterprises to check out the authenticity of the data.
My Guild Wars 2 Vids
Over 1/3 of the Asian servers do not service China. Not every player outside the western market lives in China.
Warcraft has somewhere between 800-900 game servers (I forget offhand). Compare that to other games to get an idea of just how many that is.
Pay by the month or by they hour still equates to a subscribing to a product. Be it an MMO or a cell phone plan or video rental. Paying money for access to a service, it's all the same.
EXCEPT. that Activision Blizzard is a publicly traded company and those share holders report are FREELY available to the public and their marketing campaigns must be based on the numbers contained there.
Is it really a surprise that things work different in countries NOT part of the Western World? So what if Chinese pay by the hour? they are STILL paying! I suppose there might be in those 12 millions the couple Chinese that pay 1 hour a month (what for anyway?? you either play... and then you would use much more than just 1 hour per month... or you do not play.. and then you do not give a crap about mail from AH and do not use even that 1 hour), but I am pretty sure most are just players like we are.
Keep in mind their economy works radically different from ours, so if that is the system that works there, who are you to say "it does not count"?
People have pre-paid telephone cards while others use a monthly subscription. BOTH these would be counted as customers of <insert phone provider here> wouldn't they??
"If you give a man a fish, you feed him for a day, if you teach him how to fish, you feed him for a lifetime"
It's because they are haters. And we all know what haters do.
I don't think they do but looking at it from a EU perspective I think theres less playing here now than there were two years ago given after the Lich King was released there were 40 + high population servers and less than 10 low when you compare that to Cataclysm theres around 15-20ish high 15-25ish low and the rest are medium at any one time . Also theres a feeling the game just isn't as busy anymore but this may have a lot more to do with the fact that virtually everyones in instances nowdays rather than questing . The thing is I don't think Blizzard will ever admit to the game losing subscriptions in vast numbers when that finally happens you will just see them go quiet on the subject and will only be able to tell by server populations decreasing . The minuite there are loads of low servers and the first time they actually merge some of these that will be the real begining of the decline .
Also realise that the sub rate in oceania realm area is $25/month. So each 2 of those are equal to 3.33 us/eu subs at $15/month.
Chinese users have to buy 4000 minutes cards at 31.20 yuan. Thats ~$4.67 so time costs ~ 7 cent/hr.
How many people does a server cap at?
Someone said 800 servers. If its 5000 people per server thats only 4 million players.
If you have 12 million players and 7500 per server thats 1600 servers which we know isn't true.
Can someone enlighten me on the number of people per server.