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Let's have it, predictions: launch sales, retention, etc
MMO.Maverick
Member CommonPosts: 7,619
There are a lot of predictions being made on these forums. Unfortunately, they're all over the place.
I thought it'd be a good thing to collect them all in one thread and compare them with reality when the time comes.
So, if you have a strong, concrete prediction regarding SWTOR's future and you dare enough, feel free to post or re-post it here.
Don't be suddenly shy, your ideas how large launch sales will be, number or % of subs after the first free month, at the 3 month mark, the number of subs you think WoW will lose, etc, etc, all is welcome, try to make it concrete if possible though.
Also, if you encounter predictions from other people, just quote and re-post it in this thread (preferrably with source link) so that we have the majority of all those predictions spouted in one place for easier comparison and reviewing.
Good luck! 
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Comments
Lol the forums only accout for about 4-6% of people who play the game, so it matters not.
(-_-)
Maybe I should have added the part, predictions you encounter here, on these mmorpg.com forums just in case
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
WEll I think they will sell about 2 million copies,.
Lot of people are playing for the solo story and will quit, some people will nerd rage and quit, others will come up with 1000's of reasons they hate it and quit, some reasons will be valid, some will be cause some people you can please.
Then with time I feel this will pick up steam. so this to me is how it might go
2 million at the start.
May drop down to nearly 1 Million
Will slowly climb back up as things get polished and content gets added.
May even pick up a lot more people if space combat gets done right on the first expansion.
Having been playing SW:TOR since November of last year (long time Beta tester), I would wager the following.
North American Sales- 2.5 Million
Euro Sales- 1.5 million
Retention- 70%
Asiatic/Pacifica Sales- We will see.
I have been playing for a year of my life, with about 9 months activity logged (there were downtimes between builds). I still have a CE on order for me and my wife. We still plan to be on Day 1 that we are allowed in early access.
Alexis
*smiles*
Once people exhaust the storyline content the game is going to take a massive nose dive.
6-8 months and we will all have our own "TOR simply wasn't a good MMO" Stories.
Playing: Nothing
Looking forward to: Nothing
If those are the sales in the first 3 months, it might actually be close. Same goes for retention, my best guess is 70% retention after 3 months and 30 - 50 % retention after a year.
Thats why MMO's need to keep continously grab new players.
Best MMO experiences : EQ(PvE), DAoC(PvP), WoW(total package) LOTRO (worldfeel) GW2 (Artstyle and animations and worlddesign) SWTOR (Story immersion) TSW (story) ESO (character advancement)
Fifty Billionty
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Press F1 to continue......
This is my major concern with the game.
SWToR is building alot of hype on its story. Yes the story is VERY good.
The trouble is storys are finite, they end. SWToR retention will be based, as with all themeparks, directly on how quickly Bioware can release polished additional content and story chapters.
LotRO has a similar issue with its book quests. In general the book quests are very good, however they are VERY slow comming at times.
I hope Bioware can keep the story flowing ... that however remains to be seen.
My guesses,
It'll be like every other themepark recently released, It'll sell very well lots of servers will open and things will be rosey (Month 1)
By month 3 subs will be down as the hardcore chew through content and get bored. Servers will close and haters will scream *i told you so* (even though its very NORMAL for some people to not stay and servers to close)
By month 6 population either Bioware will be releasing new content and the population will be stable and healthy and the game will be a huge win ... or ... lack of content additions will see more people leaving and the game will be condidered another *rift* ....
Time will tell.
Why only 1.5 million in Europe? The European market is about the same size as the North American one.
I think the Release will be strong. You would be blind not to believe otherwise.
3-4 Months from now, 40 percent of the playerbase will be gone.
Everything that is new and cool and "Star Wars" will have worn off, honeymoon will be over and the story alone will not carry this game.
Personally, I think the classes are bland and combat is absolutely boring and uninspired.
Without the IP, is this game amazing? No.
To each their own.
I have played Imperial Agent Act 1, ummm, like 9 times now. Act 2 6, and Act 3 0 (saved it for live).
On BH I played Act 1 6 times, Act 2 4 times and Act 3 2 times.
Inquisitor Act 1 5 times, Act 2 halfway once. Warrior Act 1 2 times.
Realize some of this is due to beta wipes and whatnots. But. I can honestly say that despite all the above I am still eager to see the end of Agent, do a BH I can keep, finish Inquisitor; and that is all before I even think about trying a Trooper. I easily have a year or more of character development ahead.
Alexis
*smiles*
1.5 + sold
450,000 subs
3 months after 250,000 subs
I listed it at 1.5 based on a rough guess.
I am not sure how many countries it will launch in, how ardent the fans' fire for Wars burns in said countries, and can only count on my country of origin (U.K.) to formulate a guess for the EU.
I also had to take the Euro into account, the new fiscal union deal may change some peoples' financial priorities. Call it 2 million if you wish >^_^< just numbers covered in arse juice since that is from whence they came.
As a Briton, I certainly have no ill will towards my fellow europeans.
Cheers,
Alexis
*smiles*
70% retention? Sorry but this made me chuckle. No game manages anything close to that not even WoW.
Prediction
Sales:
Launch box/digital-sales in the first week (including pre-orders): ~3-4 Million
Subscription retention rates (from initial sales, numbers at the -end- of each month):
1. Month: 80-90%
2. Month: 50-60%
3. Month: 30-40%
4. Month: below 30%
+6. Month: ~15%
Free To Play prediction:
Month 12-14 from launch
I think it will sell over 2 million first 2 months, and retain about 70-80% of people. New content will be added fast.
(-_-)
The first top tier WoW guilds are starting to publicly move to SWTOR. You might say who the F cares..., but many people do. The image that "The pros play WoW" has a big effect on that snowball effect that leads to millions of subs. This is also a big reason why CoD is huge. (Like the games or not it's true)
www.methodwow.com/board/content.php?70-Scene-News-For-the-Horde-quits-WoW-for-SWTOR
With that, and Dallas Dickensons recent interview saying they are comitted to fast production of story and instance/raid content, means that SWTOR will grow over time not drop. Sure there will be a particular attrition rate of the preorders/1st dayers. But over time the game will grow. It's going to be the new WoW, the panda thing is pissing off the kids to started playing 4-5 years ago who now "want something more mature".
Remember Old School Ultima Online
Rofl what kinda games do people on these forums play? Runescape?
(-_-)
Whats your problem?
1. 2.5-3 million sales from launch to first month.
2. 3rd month mark, holding 3 million active subs
3. 1st year tops out with 4-4.5 mill subs
4. 2nd year ends with 5 mill subs and at that time is equal with WoW in subs and just ahead of GW2 by a million or so subs.
5. From the end of GW2's second year and ToR's third year. Is where they both eclipse WoW in subs and blizzard restructures payment plan to F2P.
Heh ,predictions on a game that had ALOT of cancelled pre orders?
One's thing for sure , SWtor won't have anything near what Skyrim had. And Skyrim ain't even multiplayer (yet).
So yeah , I'm not expecting SWtor to be sold out on release , or ever in that matter.
For Skyrim I had to wander around a few hours to get myself a copy.
SWtor , like Diablo 3 , took way to long to release , was announced way to early , hype was lost on these games years ago , people have moved on. Sure people will try them out , but will very likely stop after a month or two.
When I view a trailer on any sort of MMO , it's to give me a idea and then I play it , but after 14 years of doing so , I can already know how the game will shape up and be like after a few hours of game play. And besides light sabers and some bobafetts , SWtor doesn't shine in any perticular area out of every other MMO released before it. IF it were me , I would of made like CCP that will be adding Dust 514 onto EVE-Online , what I mean is that they should of kept Galaxies up and put SWtor ontop of it , NOW that would of been freaking kick ass. But no , narrow headed companies don't think outside the box. At least we still got CCP and thank God for that!!!
Aww snap! That was my guestimation too!
Woot? o.O, got a link or something if i missed that news? by the way Skyrim was released on console and pc both so ofcourse SWTOR can not break Skyrim's record.
How many servers SWTOR will launch with on release?
ShredderSE - Umm how many do they need? Maybe 6.
US, EU, Asian, France, German and Russian.
Subs will be so low there is no need for more
Snoocky-How many servers?
The first 3 months a lot...after that 2 i guess, one for PVE and 1 for PVP...
Thorbrand - SWTOR doesn't have longevity at all. Might be one of the shortest lived MMOs.
Skyrim sold 3.5 million copies in its first 48 hours. I'm sure that SWTOR won't sell that many copies either, I am pretty sure, however, that if it were to launch on the XBOX 360 and PS3 in addition to the PC it would have sold alot more than that, but since it is a pc only title, I will say that it will sell alot more copies on the PC than Skyrim did.
Quite similar to my predicitons (that i dont care to repeat)
I am also suprised by hype EA managed to cook up. But i would not put the initial sales (in the west) above 2 maximum 3 millions.
Probably 2.5 mil. initial players , or less.
As for player decline. I predict there is going to be major expansion ( payed , yes sorry subscription payers )
The expansion will be timed with release of GW2. And its going to bring back lot of players for short time.
But that will be last straw for P2P. F2P will be soon to follow around spring 2013.