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Let's have it, predictions: launch sales, retention, etc
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I just don't anticipate a huge crossover between people who like TOR enough to stick with it after the free month and people who are even considering playing MoP.
As for GW2, there is no reason to cancel a sub in order to play a non-sub game. GW2 isn't competition any more than Diablo III, Mass Effect 3, or Skyrim are competition. Possibly less than any of those are.
Peace is a lie, there is only passion.
Through passion, I gain strength.
Through strength, I gain power.
Through power, I gain victory.
Through victory, my chains are broken.
The Force shall free me.
I think it will sell about 3.5 million units in NA and EUR in first month.
2.5 million subscribers at the 6 month mark.
2 million subscribers at the year mark.
Kung Fu Panda will lose WOW subscribers, but GW2 and D3 will impact subscription MMOs.
I think it's interesting that people say that it won't "hit" WoW numbers. Granted, it's not releasing in Asia or South America at launch, but I think that WoW's numbers a merely the cap of what we see as the maximum number of subscribers today. I think that the market expands as we go further into the future, as more and more people get access to the web and to technology. Remember, you can get a decent high speed Internet connection and entry-level gaming computer for far less that you would five years ago. If the trend continues, I see no reason why SWTOR won't exceed WoW's numbers when they release Chinese, Japanese, and Spanish language versions.
WOW grew in subscribers for a long time. Retention was high and new people kept coming in.
I think most people mean that if 3 million people buy the game in the first month, the subscribers at some later date will be 70% of that number, which includes new players minus those that left.
I could be wrong, obviously, any of us could, but I just don't see GW2 or D3 having any more impact than any other non-sub game would have. How many people, when they are only subbed to one game, cancel that sub every time they feel like spending any amount of time playing a non-sub game?
I can see losing people to the Secret World, but other than that...
WoW has always had more people who quit before even reaching level cap even once than who have stuck with the game for any substantial length of time. It never had great retention, it just had such a hugely massive number of people who tried the game, that it's terrible *rate* of retention wasn't a problem.
Peace is a lie, there is only passion.
Through passion, I gain strength.
Through strength, I gain power.
Through power, I gain victory.
Through victory, my chains are broken.
The Force shall free me.
That was the question I wanted to ask. When we speak of "retention," do we talk about the difference between the number of accounts you have when you launch as opposed to the number that you have at any point in time, or do we talk about the number of people that keep their subs over a given period of time? Going by definition, it is the latter, and the retention rates should therefore always be assumed to be pretty low. However, if that's the case, based on player turnover, we can also assume that a low retention rate isn't necessarily a death knell for a game, as long as they can continue to bring in new players to replace the ones who left. Obviously, a low retention rate will inhibit subscription growth due to treading water with your subs, but it doesn't necessarily mean the game is dying.
So to sum up: If TOR starts off with box sales of around 4 million, subs of 3 million after the free month, and a low retention rate of say, 25% of those over the full year, but can replace a quarter of the players who left with new players, their sub numbers and profitability are still going to be pretty massive, well over a million subs, in fact. This is why I laugh at the people who predict that TOR is going to be F2P in a year. Simple mathmatics and a tiny bit of logic would suggest that a company would NEVER go F2P if they are holding over a million subs, poor retention or not. Particularly if the game only needs 500K active subs to remain profitable.
First off the people the say TOR will go F2P in a year really dont understand what F2P stand for these days. I take it these people have only played one MMO in their life the and that would greatest game ever released on any console ever.
I have played LOTRO and Age of Conan both since betas, both have gone the dreaded F2P. Are these games really FREE 2 PLAY? No, they still have subcription options which most people that I have played with use. F2P is nothing more then glorified trial, both games you still need to pay either to access areas or expansion or just pay the monthly subription. LOTRO used it and their population went through the roof, AoC population also increased.
It took EQ2 7 years to go F2P, LOTRO 4 years, AoC had major issues at lauch (ones TOR does not have) and took them 2 years to go F2P. I am not an expert like most on these sites, but TOR will not be F2P like some expert predict in as little as 6months, or even 12months for that matter.
If you think TOR is that bad great go play a game you enjoy
It's not only a matter of money, but mostly a matter of time & dedication. If you play a single player game for 2-4 weeks, you'll stay subbed to your MMO. But nobody plays 3 online games at the same time in the long run. If 1 game turns out to be your favorite - you'll dedicate most of your time to play that one. Which leads to:
Diablo 3: TOR loses some subs, but not a lot, because it's not a real MMO.
Pandaria: Many players will check it out, then whine about it. After that, they will return to TOR - or switch to GW2 instead.
GW2: TOR loses a lot, because it doesn't have a monthly sub and offers different gameplay.
Hype train -> Reality
I predict I am going to play TOR. And I dont care if anyone else does.
Story of my life.
Well, maybe I want a handful of people to play with - people I know, maybe? Gotta have that MMO feel.
Launch sales: Over 9000.
Retention: 4 subs left after 0.1 nanoseconds.
Game will be shut in: The year 3197.
Turnover: £800 billion.
Net Profit/Loss: £-0.34.
Forum posts generated about the games success: 1^900.
"Come and have a look at what you could have won."
lulz?
Makes two of us, let me know what server your rolling on and I'll go the opposite so we can have PvP since no1 wants to play this game.
Haters will be haters.
If you don't like a game don't play it, and quit running to MMORPG.com to trash it.
I don't know about anyone else, but I only play one game at a time, sub or no sub. I just get very focused that way.
When I want a single-player story, I'll play a single-player game. When I play an MMO, I want a massively multiplayer world.
why predict on unsure things?
IF i say that Swtor will have 4 million subscribers and it turns to be only 1 million, then im a fanboy.....
If i say swtor will sell 500k copies and it turns out that they sell 4 millions, then im a troll hater.....
we will see when it arrives and as time goes by. I dont need to predict
Shadow's Hand Guild
Open recruitment for
The Secret World - Dragons
Planetside 2 - Terran Republic
Tera - Dragonfall Server
http://www.shadowshand.com
Personally I like the companions.
ToR will be in competition with WoW for the most subscribers for about a year after release. Blizzard will win in this war because they know better than anyone how to retain subs. Tor will be known as the second most successful mmo.
Hey I could use some money to pay for my sub next year on TOR so the same offer goes for me...then I will be playing for free...*not the same as F2P* so i still win.
It will all depend on sub numbers, if they lose a percentage of subs after a target period then they may consider the f2p model, and anyone who dismisses the chances that Bioware will create a f2p model are extremely naive. Money is their number 1 concern, if they see a drop in subs to bring their cash flow to an unreasonable figure then they will without a doubt move to f2p.
The reason you dont see Blizzard going f2p is because they still have a large amount of monthly subs coming in, it doesnt presently warrant a f2p model for them with WoW..
I am not saying TOR will NEVER go F2P, but people saying the game will go F2P in 6 months or a year are just as "extremely naive" as those saying TOR will NEVER go F2P. The OP bet was within a year.
Shadow's Hand Guild
Open recruitment for
The Secret World - Dragons
Planetside 2 - Terran Republic
Tera - Dragonfall Server
http://www.shadowshand.com
Yeh is ok I didnt mean to qoute you actually. My prediction is 3mil subs NA and 2.5 subs Europe. rest of the world maybe around 2 mil. yeh i'm very optomistic.
I predict a lot of haters will be surprised.
3 million at launch - first month. Asia - big unknown for sales and pricing.
5 million at 3 months ( 70% retention on original players but gaining new players through delayed releases and word of mouth, advertising). Asia - big unknown for sales and pricing.
6 million at 6 months - peaking population, active subs continue playing through Alt stroylines.
If an expansion or patch with credible content that matches *popular feedback is announced to launch within 6 months then continued subs at around 6 million.
*Expanded space combat with heavy multiplayer involvment, Swoop/pod crafting / racing / crowd watching, Cantina sports. IMO these additions have a playable lifetime far exceeding added dungeons in regards to development time.