i have followed Pantheon since its Kickstarter with a mix of optimism/skepticism. I waited patiently and observed as it development unfolded.
This team has made measurable progress and has communicated its philosophy and intentions at every step. And so i personally feel that Brad has largely redeemed himself,and shown he is capable of learning from past mistakes.
I also strongly feel that there is a viable market for this game. 100-250k subs is not some insane fantasy number it is a reasonable expectation based on the demand for this style of MMO.
Of course it will not have WOW numbers or maybe not even original EQ numbers as it is niche and "old school". But so what? Brad has already stated they expect this and the games viability is based on this understanding.
If this team delivers as promised/demonstrated already i am confident the sub numbers will be healthy not MEGA HIT but successful. Are 500k subs possible?, only if they deliver a high quality game fully viable at release ,and the population slowly grows as word spreads of its quality ala EVE. But 100-200k subs IS NOT some deranged fanboi number IMHO.
P.S. funny thing is i still play WOW i have since vanilla and Pantheon is still the game ive been waiting for. I will probably play both and why not?
P.P.S. i would pay $25/month sub for Pantheon but i understand why thats probably not possible. $15/month is plenty of money and is the accepted standard. The team should be able to deliver plenty with that price.
One thing I believe... it will not be a meteoric rise. I doubt there will be 100k people lining up to get on board out of the gate. I think they can hit decent numbers if they deliver... but I think it will be a slow build up. I have nothing to back up these claims.. just my personal feelings on it.
I think enough people have issues with Brad that this game will open with maybe 30-50k players. A lot more will wait and see and then slowly trickle in if they see enough good initial reviews from people who's opinion they trust and then see that the game is being looked after going forwards.
If the game is still getting good positive feedback after 9 months to a year, then I expect there to be sizeable jump in players as though a dam breaks. Still not millions, but enough to take subs to a 6 digit figure. I think word of mouth will be VERY important to the growth, or death, of this game.
As for the possible sub fee? That depends entirely on what you get for your money. Real GMs and/or guides, live events, regular updates both fixing bugs and adding content, no cash shop or purely cosmetic only cash shop. Each of these, and more, increases the amount I am willing to pay per month for a game. If I am getting the same service from Game A as I am from Game B then I won't be willing to pay more for it. Offer me more, or better, service and I'll be willing to pay more for it.
Originally posted by Dullahan Anyone that thinks 100k is high for a game like Pantheon is out of touch with the genre or what this game is planning to be. The only reason an EQ remake wouldn't pull 100k easy is if they simply fail to deliver on promises or produce a Vanguard launch quality product. EQ had nearly half a million back when there was less than 1/10th of the people on the internet. People have been calling for a return to that type of game since SOE began mutating EQ into a themepark, and that niche has millions of potential players. Not claiming that they'll all jump on board with Pantheon, but 100k is peanuts if they manage to get funded and make a solid game.
It's impossible to gauge really. Just have to build it and see. When you say "people have been calling for a return to that type of game"... that is true.. some people. Impossible to say how many.
One thing I believe... it will not be a meteoric rise. I doubt there will be 100k people lining up to get on board out of the gate. I think they can hit decent numbers if they deliver... but I think it will be a slow build up. I have nothing to back up these claims.. just my personal feelings on it.
What is impossible to guage?
Do you not understand that people have been tracking MMO-space metrics and numbers, some use them as thesis for their PHD. There are firms that consult with the SOE, Blizzard, TRION, etc. There are also charts dating back to before EQ's time. So it is easy to spot the newbies, from those who have weathered some tough projects & failures.
The #'s I have focused on are based on well tunneled metrics. A game like Pantheon @ $25/month will support 250,000 people within it's second year. (That doesn't mean Pantheon will be $25/month.)
In all honesty, if word gets out this is "it"..?
Some old guilds will dust themselves off and make it worthwhile. So if this Visionary Realms Development Team can stick to their tenets & keep their DNA pure, with a good release + word of mouth, I see no reason why Pantheon couldn't support 500,000 subscribers by its 3rd year. And quite frankly, that is all the subscribers VR will ever need. EVE is a good example of the direction EQ3/Pantheon is going.
A game like Pantheon doesn't need a crown, when it is a jewel.
Pantheon will never be about the "price of the game" when you wife is leaving you for the 2nd time, or you've lost a job, or flunked out a semester, etc. Have you ever had any of that type of e-crack injected into you for 36 months?
On a similiar note, the EQ Progression server (ragefire) is firing up this week, & is already full?
Not only that, but SOE/Daybreak just made an alliance with the EQ-emulator Project1999, because they were due to release Kunark, and the EQ emulator has 50K registrants. SOE/Daybreak didn't want P99 interfering with the release of Daybreak's new EQ Progressions server. All oldschool EQ action in the present day.
Then you have the Vanguard Emulator Project, which is fascinating & growing.
Many rally around Brad (& see threw his faults), because he is a dedicated Artisan. He creates worlds and drops you off in them. His Vision is the reason these people have EQ & VG emulators. He is a visionary and forward thinker. The base mechanics to his games are outstanding & quite deep. Unmatched thus far in the industry in both EQ & VG.
Once you have a taste of his vision, it is hard to put it down.
edit: Hey Joe Cracker, Pantheon is not a niche game. It is a Premium MMORPG. 250k is a small group, it is doubtful you are one of the few people who will play.
Ok... clearly you are taking the literal meaning of everything I say. Let me rephrase it for you: It's extremely difficult to gauge. Technically... anything is possible.... but that's another debate.
You are obviously very passionate about this game. IDK if you are Brad himself or someone from the team or a very dedicated fanboy. But nothing you've said really convinces myself, or probably anyone else here, that this game is going to explode onto the scene... it truly is all speculation.
You keep talking about all the metrics and numbers out there. But where are they? Honestly... I would love to have a look at the data that you are looking at and get a sense of how you are determining the market for this project. I do understand that they track mmo space metrics and numbers. Of course they do. It's business. And business decisions are driven primarily on the numbers... not some gut feeling. So.. where do the numbers exist about the current demand in today's market for "old school" mmo? How is this data derived from all the data collected? You can't simply look back 10 or 15 years ago and say... well that was how the market was THEN.. and THOSE people will certainly come back now. Those people are scattered.. and the circumstances in their lives has likely changed. The market research needs to be done now.. on today's market. A lot of survey data needs to be collected.. which I'm sure it has. But.. 99% of the people posting here don't have access to that. So... we need to base our positions on the limited view that we have. Doesn't make us newbies. Doesn't mean we haven't weathered successes and failures. I would wager that the majority of the people posting here have been on the mmo scene for as long as EQ has been around... if not longer. Still.. it seems that your assertions are in the minority.
To some extent, I do agree with you on this :
"Some old guilds will dust themselves off and make it worthwhile. So if this Visionary Realms Development Team can stick to their tenets & keep their DNA pure, with a good release + word of mouth, I see no reason why Pantheon couldn't support 500,000 subscribers by its 3rd year. And quite frankly, that is all the subscribers VR will ever need. EVE is a good example of the direction EQ3/Pantheon is going."
Regarding P99. It is not an alliance with DBG. DBG just an agreement between the company and the group supporting P99 stating that the project is not for profit and establishes guidelines for them to follow to protect them legally for future expansion releases. As far as I know, DBG is not supporting it what-so-ever.
Regarding Ragefire... I currently have All Access. I currently play EQ. Ragefire is not full. It is locked until May 20th release. The beta is currently open.
For the record: I support this game. I want this game. I want YOU to be right about it's success. I have been waiting for this as well. Still won't pay $25/month for it. As I've stated before.. have to draw the line somewhere.
Originally posted by Dullahan Anyone that thinks 100k is high for a game like Pantheon is out of touch with the genre or what this game is planning to be. The only reason an EQ remake wouldn't pull 100k easy is if they simply fail to deliver on promises or produce a Vanguard launch quality product. EQ had nearly half a million back when there was less than 1/10th of the people on the internet. People have been calling for a return to that type of game since SOE began mutating EQ into a themepark, and that niche has millions of potential players. Not claiming that they'll all jump on board with Pantheon, but 100k is peanuts if they manage to get funded and make a solid game.
It's impossible to gauge really. Just have to build it and see. When you say "people have been calling for a return to that type of game"... that is true.. some people. Impossible to say how many.
One thing I believe... it will not be a meteoric rise. I doubt there will be 100k people lining up to get on board out of the gate. I think they can hit decent numbers if they deliver... but I think it will be a slow build up. I have nothing to back up these claims.. just my personal feelings on it.
What is impossible to guage?
Do you not understand that people have been tracking MMO-space metrics and numbers, some use them as thesis for their PHD. There are firms that consult with the SOE, Blizzard, TRION, etc. There are also charts dating back to before EQ's time. So it is easy to spot the newbies, from those who have weathered some tough projects & failures.
The #'s I have focused on are based on well tunneled metrics. A game like Pantheon @ $25/month will support 250,000 people within it's second year. (That doesn't mean Pantheon will be $25/month.)
In all honesty, if word gets out this is "it"..?
Some old guilds will dust themselves off and make it worthwhile. So if this Visionary Realms Development Team can stick to their tenets & keep their DNA pure, with a good release + word of mouth, I see no reason why Pantheon couldn't support 500,000 subscribers by its 3rd year. And quite frankly, that is all the subscribers VR will ever need. EVE is a good example of the direction EQ3/Pantheon is going.
A game like Pantheon doesn't need a crown, when it is a jewel.
Pantheon will never be about the "price of the game" when you wife is leaving you for the 2nd time, or you've lost a job, or flunked out a semester, etc. Have you ever had any of that type of e-crack injected into you for 36 months?
On a similiar note, the EQ Progression server (ragefire) is firing up this week, & is already full?
Not only that, but SOE/Daybreak just made an alliance with the EQ-emulator Project1999, because they were due to release Kunark, and the EQ emulator has 50K registrants. SOE/Daybreak didn't want P99 interfering with the release of Daybreak's new EQ Progressions server. All oldschool EQ action in the present day.
Then you have the Vanguard Emulator Project, which is fascinating & growing.
Many rally around Brad (& see threw his faults), because he is a dedicated Artisan. He creates worlds and drops you off in them. His Vision is the reason these people have EQ & VG emulators. He is a visionary and forward thinker. The base mechanics to his games are outstanding & quite deep. Unmatched thus far in the industry in both EQ & VG.
Once you have a taste of his vision, it is hard to put it down.
edit: Hey Joe Cracker, Pantheon is not a niche game. It is a Premium MMORPG. 250k is a small group, it is doubtful you are one of the few people who will play.
Ok... clearly you are taking the literal meaning of everything I say. Let me rephrase it for you: It's extremely difficult to gauge. Technically... anything is possible.... but that's another debate.
You are obviously very passionate about this game. IDK if you are Brad himself or someone from the team or a very dedicated fanboy. But nothing you've said really convinces myself, or probably anyone else here, that this game is going to explode onto the scene... it truly is all speculation.
You keep talking about all the metrics and numbers out there. But where are they? Honestly... I would love to have a look at the data that you are looking at and get a sense of how you are determining the market for this project. I do understand that they track mmo space metrics and numbers. Of course they do. It's business. And business decisions are driven primarily on the numbers... not some gut feeling. So.. where do the numbers exist about the current demand in today's market for "old school" mmo? How is this data derived from all the data collected? You can't simply look back 10 or 15 years ago and say... well that was how the market was THEN.. and THOSE people will certainly come back now. Those people are scattered.. and the circumstances in their lives has likely changed. The market research needs to be done now.. on today's market. A lot of survey data needs to be collected.. which I'm sure it has. But.. 99% of the people posting here don't have access to that. So... we need to base our positions on the limited view that we have. Doesn't make us newbies. Doesn't mean we haven't weathered successes and failures. I would wager that the majority of the people posting here have been on the mmo scene for as long as EQ has been around... if not longer. Still.. it seems that your assertions are in the minority.
To some extent, I do agree with you on this :
"Some old guilds will dust themselves off and make it worthwhile. So if this Visionary Realms Development Team can stick to their tenets & keep their DNA pure, with a good release + word of mouth, I see no reason why Pantheon couldn't support 500,000 subscribers by its 3rd year. And quite frankly, that is all the subscribers VR will ever need. EVE is a good example of the direction EQ3/Pantheon is going."
Regarding P99. It is not an alliance with DBG. DBG just an agreement between the company and the group supporting P99 stating that the project is not for profit and establishes guidelines for them to follow to protect them legally for future expansion releases. As far as I know, DBG is not supporting it what-so-ever.
Regarding Ragefire... I currently have All Access. I currently play EQ. Ragefire is not full. It is locked until May 20th release. The beta is currently open.
For the record: I support this game. I want this game. I want YOU to be right about it's success. I have been waiting for this as well. Still won't pay $25/month for it. As I've stated before.. have to draw the line somewhere.
Lets not make this about me, again.
You fail to understand I co-own a FIRM that deals with collecting data, and selling that data as a consultant. I released some generalized FREE information and some of children have a hard time adding it all up. Unable to refute my numbers with simple remedial math, & it is astounding amount of ignorance displayed here. Attacking me does no good, I am not telling you what I feel, but what Information we have tunneled.
Subsequently, it doesn't matter if we are discussing Pantheon, or not.
Any game that comes down the pipe with such wanton mechanics and gamesmanship will follow the demographics I laid out. Just so happens, this is the first (in a long time) AND we are specifically talking about Brad McQuaid, and he builds games different than any other. (This is his 3rd one, to be exact).
That alone makes this project special to me and good many others who follow the industry. I am not affiliated with any Development studio, but Personally excited to see these game mechanics all come together in Pantheon. (Hint: the oldschool is worth 2 million subs, if done right)
I'll admit that it is still "wait & see" with Pantheon (alpha 2 will give more insight), but given what we have seen in the last 10 months, nothing there effects my predictions & only enhances their chances of success. Given the quality and direction of Visionary Realms, I see no reason to halt predictions, or shuffle numbers.
There is no argument here, I am not debating. I offered knowledge and will rebuttal those who are trying to misdirect the data. I can also debate those numbers too, to show they are valid. But you have to be willing to watch & learn.
Now JackCracker-
You openly admit to knowing about the P99 emulator and the Ragefire Progession server, that collectively host more than the people interested in Landmark. Yet, are you really wondering where 100k+ subscribers will come from in the first year? Or are you (& others) just being coy?
What if I told you that Visionary Realms doesn't need you? Or any of your friends, or any of the people you know. That they only need a scant 250K adult subscribers for 4 to 7 years. And that YOU are not part of this exclusive crowd of oldschool MMORPG player.
Would you be angry? How would you feel? Why?
But in reality (ie: what research tells us): We know a good many blokes that would charge a year of Pantheon on Mommies Credit Card, because being told "NO", is instant rage! And ironically telling "NO!" to a 30 year old, becomes an instant challenge.
Don't fool yourself, $25/month is not a barrier.
MMORPGs are a lifestyle. If you find a game you (and you guild likes), no matter what the price you will make a lifestyle change, to become a part of it. That is why, by the 3rd year Pantheon will have 500,000 subscribers, because those people had to adjust to make a lifestyle change, to make Pantheon worth their while. To be able to dedicate themselves to learning to master a role.
To have a second role in life, a second life. To a Roleplayer, that is all the crack you need.
Pantheon is EQ3: Any active player, who has ever played EQ, EQ2 or Vanguard, will buy into Pantheon. So will 1% to 5% of the disgruntled WoW crowd whom are in their 30s and looking to graduate to something more challenging, or just different.
Then- you have a certain percentage of players from LOTR, SWTOR, Ryzom, etc that are sick of those games and ready for new world and new environment/friends.
Then- add in all the meta-freaks in EVE whom will take a quick liking to the meta-combat that Pantheon is being designed around.
Then- you have people who have subs to many different games, just playing MMOs in limbo and Pantheon will be a place where they can put down in.
Those^ are just obvious segments of the MMO space, whom will be trying Pantheon its first year. I ask you and all to go ahead and add them up. ...and only people in their 30s+. What number do you all get? Now take about 30% of those (being conservative) and you have Pantheon vanguards.
All the other segments will come on board later. (Psychology)
When some can no longer handle themselves & submit to the crack. Or, where activity breeds activity and all those dormant, non-active MMORPG players hear about this new new oldschool EQ3 game amassing some 250k and the oldguard will have no prob buying a years up on CC, just for a gander to see what all the commotion is about.
Most will buy second accounts too.
Research shows that money is not the issue with these people. It is simply the lack of quality games that pushes these older players out/off the market. So, $100 more a year to know (& see) Game Masters in game, along with guides and hackers & azzhats being banned? All the better, is there a tip jar?
Originally posted by Dullahan Anyone that thinks 100k is high for a game like Pantheon is out of touch with the genre or what this game is planning to be. The only reason an EQ remake wouldn't pull 100k easy is if they simply fail to deliver on promises or produce a Vanguard launch quality product. EQ had nearly half a million back when there was less than 1/10th of the people on the internet. People have been calling for a return to that type of game since SOE began mutating EQ into a themepark, and that niche has millions of potential players. Not claiming that they'll all jump on board with Pantheon, but 100k is peanuts if they manage to get funded and make a solid game.
It's impossible to gauge really. Just have to build it and see. When you say "people have been calling for a return to that type of game"... that is true.. some people. Impossible to say how many.
One thing I believe... it will not be a meteoric rise. I doubt there will be 100k people lining up to get on board out of the gate. I think they can hit decent numbers if they deliver... but I think it will be a slow build up. I have nothing to back up these claims.. just my personal feelings on it.
I agree that it will be a slow rise. A polished release likely will rise faster but if it is a raw release like I expect it may take several months to get going.
Originally posted by Fractal_Analogy
Originally posted by JackCracker411
Originally posted by Dullahan Anyone that thinks 100k is high for a game like Pantheon is out of touch with the genre or what this game is planning to be. The only reason an EQ remake wouldn't pull 100k easy is if they simply fail to deliver on promises or produce a Vanguard launch quality product. EQ had nearly half a million back when there was less than 1/10th of the people on the internet. People have been calling for a return to that type of game since SOE began mutating EQ into a themepark, and that niche has millions of potential players. Not claiming that they'll all jump on board with Pantheon, but 100k is peanuts if they manage to get funded and make a solid game.
It's impossible to gauge really. Just have to build it and see. When you say "people have been calling for a return to that type of game"... that is true.. some people. Impossible to say how many.
One thing I believe... it will not be a meteoric rise. I doubt there will be 100k people lining up to get on board out of the gate. I think they can hit decent numbers if they deliver... but I think it will be a slow build up. I have nothing to back up these claims.. just my personal feelings on it.
What is impossible to guage?
Do you not understand that people have been tracking MMO-space metrics and numbers, some use them as thesis for their PHD. There are firms that consult with the SOE, Blizzard, TRION, etc. There are also charts dating back to before EQ's time. So it is easy to spot the newbies, from those who have weathered some tough projects & failures.
The #'s I have focused on are based on well tunneled metrics. A game like Pantheon @ $25/month will support 250,000 people within it's second year. (That doesn't mean Pantheon will be $25/month.)
In all honesty, if word gets out this is "it"..?
Some old guilds will dust themselves off and make it worthwhile. So if this Visionary Realms Development Team can stick to their tenets & keep their DNA pure, with a good release + word of mouth, I see no reason why Pantheon couldn't support 500,000 subscribers by its 3rd year. And quite frankly, that is all the subscribers VR will ever need. EVE is a good example of the direction EQ3/Pantheon is going.
A game like Pantheon doesn't need a crown, when it is a jewel.
Pantheon will never be about the "price of the game" when you wife is leaving you for the 2nd time, or you've lost a job, or flunked out a semester, etc. Have you ever had any of that type of e-crack injected into you for 36 months?
On a similiar note, the EQ Progression server (ragefire) is firing up this week, & is already full?
Not only that, but SOE/Daybreak just made an alliance with the EQ-emulator Project1999, because they were due to release Kunark, and the EQ emulator has 50K registrants. SOE/Daybreak didn't want P99 interfering with the release of Daybreak's new EQ Progressions server. All oldschool EQ action in the present day.
Then you have the Vanguard Emulator Project, which is fascinating & growing.
Many rally around Brad (& see threw his faults), because he is a dedicated Artisan. He creates worlds and drops you off in them. His Vision is the reason these people have EQ & VG emulators. He is a visionary and forward thinker. The base mechanics to his games are outstanding & quite deep. Unmatched thus far in the industry in both EQ & VG.
Once you have a taste of his vision, it is hard to put it down.
edit: Hey Joe Cracker, Pantheon is not a niche game. It is a Premium MMORPG. 250k is a small group, it is doubtful you are one of the few people who will play.
Hate to break it to you but Brad and his devs have already said that Pantheon is a niche game. However that doesnt mean that it cannot grow beyond that which I think it will especially if they dont do something stupid like decide on a $25 a month subscription. Otherwise it isnt going to do better than 15k-25k if even that much.. Nowhere near your 250k prediction at that price.. If 250k would do $25 a month dont you think the old premium EQ1 server they had wouldnt have been a complete failure? If 250k would do $25 wouldnt you think many thousands would have done $50 a month for the premium EQ1 server? That didnt happen. It was a complete flop from the beginning.
It is tough enough as it is at $15 a month for an MMO to get and hold 250k players.
I am as big a fan as any when it comes to the EQ style of game but I am not going to be delusional and predict massive success instantly. The market for this style of game is most likely smaller than it was 5 - 10 - 15 years ago because people that were into it then got older and likely have a family or other responsibilities now and may not want or be able to dedicate the time that would be needed. Others between then and now may have only ever played EQ2 or WoW or FF or WAR etc. They may not be interested in a time consuming game.
Speaking in absolutes as you are will just get you into trouble and possibly cause you to look foolish. Be careful.
WOW. Fractal... that whole response is just a big pile of bananas. I have no more to say (ok.. well maybe a little more). You are just a little too crazy for me. I don't see anything in that response that even remotely suggests any real research or data mining done from your end. Only a lot of.... look at this game.. and look at that game... and they will leave those games and come to Pantheon. And the cost of Pantheon won't matter... because it's "crack". WTF?! A co-owner of a firm talks like this? I really hope the other owner is a little more grounded than you are.
Looking forward to Pantheon still.. but the game will do a lot better if people like yourself stayed clear of it and stopped trying to advocate for the game. It'll do better organically. Your crazy talk will just turn people off.
Originally posted by Dullahan Ya, but you still back landmark and EQ Next and havent come to the realization that modern MMOs are only moving in the wrong direction. I give you another year or two to change your tune, and lucky for you that is when Pantheon is scheduled to launch.
Basically, if the mmo genre isn't going the direction you want it to. It is the wrong direction? Got it.
Originally posted by Albatroes Why does it feel like Pantheon is turning into some kind of cult...?
Because just like CU, SC and a few other "only great ideas" mmos people want to try to convince us what we should be thinking. The funny thing is reading people saying they will pay $25 a month or even a couple saying $50+ a month on a game is that is not even a game yet. Just some ideas and not much to show yet. Just goes to show you that that old saying is true.
For those of you that are fans of this game, but are being realistic and not shouting "WoW Killer" and/or "Next BIG MMO". I do not mean any disrespect to you. For you, I hope the game does launch and deliver.
Originally posted by Dullahan Anyone that thinks 100k is high for a game like Pantheon is out of touch with the genre or what this game is planning to be. The only reason an EQ remake wouldn't pull 100k easy is if they simply fail to deliver on promises or produce a Vanguard launch quality product. EQ had nearly half a million back when there was less than 1/10th of the people on the internet. People have been calling for a return to that type of game since SOE began mutating EQ into a themepark, and that niche has millions of potential players. Not claiming that they'll all jump on board with Pantheon, but 100k is peanuts if they manage to get funded and make a solid game.
It's impossible to gauge really. Just have to build it and see. When you say "people have been calling for a return to that type of game"... that is true.. some people. Impossible to say how many.
One thing I believe... it will not be a meteoric rise. I doubt there will be 100k people lining up to get on board out of the gate. I think they can hit decent numbers if they deliver... but I think it will be a slow build up. I have nothing to back up these claims.. just my personal feelings on it.
What is impossible to guage?
Do you not understand that people have been tracking MMO-space metrics and numbers, some use them as thesis for their PHD. There are firms that consult with the SOE, Blizzard, TRION, etc. There are also charts dating back to before EQ's time. So it is easy to spot the newbies, from those who have weathered some tough projects & failures.
The #'s I have focused on are based on well tunneled metrics. A game like Pantheon @ $25/month will support 250,000 people within it's second year. (That doesn't mean Pantheon will be $25/month.)
In all honesty, if word gets out this is "it"..?
Some old guilds will dust themselves off and make it worthwhile. So if this Visionary Realms Development Team can stick to their tenets & keep their DNA pure, with a good release + word of mouth, I see no reason why Pantheon couldn't support 500,000 subscribers by its 3rd year. And quite frankly, that is all the subscribers VR will ever need. EVE is a good example of the direction EQ3/Pantheon is going.
A game like Pantheon doesn't need a crown, when it is a jewel.
Pantheon will never be about the "price of the game" when you wife is leaving you for the 2nd time, or you've lost a job, or flunked out a semester, etc. Have you ever had any of that type of e-crack injected into you for 36 months?
On a similiar note, the EQ Progression server (ragefire) is firing up this week, & is already full?
Not only that, but SOE/Daybreak just made an alliance with the EQ-emulator Project1999, because they were due to release Kunark, and the EQ emulator has 50K registrants. SOE/Daybreak didn't want P99 interfering with the release of Daybreak's new EQ Progressions server. All oldschool EQ action in the present day.
Then you have the Vanguard Emulator Project, which is fascinating & growing.
Many rally around Brad (& see threw his faults), because he is a dedicated Artisan. He creates worlds and drops you off in them. His Vision is the reason these people have EQ & VG emulators. He is a visionary and forward thinker. The base mechanics to his games are outstanding & quite deep. Unmatched thus far in the industry in both EQ & VG.
Once you have a taste of his vision, it is hard to put it down.
edit: Hey Joe Cracker, Pantheon is not a niche game. It is a Premium MMORPG. 250k is a small group, it is doubtful you are one of the few people who will play.
Ok... clearly you are taking the literal meaning of everything I say. Let me rephrase it for you: It's extremely difficult to gauge. Technically... anything is possible.... but that's another debate.
You are obviously very passionate about this game. IDK if you are Brad himself or someone from the team or a very dedicated fanboy. But nothing you've said really convinces myself, or probably anyone else here, that this game is going to explode onto the scene... it truly is all speculation.
You keep talking about all the metrics and numbers out there. But where are they? Honestly... I would love to have a look at the data that you are looking at and get a sense of how you are determining the market for this project. I do understand that they track mmo space metrics and numbers. Of course they do. It's business. And business decisions are driven primarily on the numbers... not some gut feeling. So.. where do the numbers exist about the current demand in today's market for "old school" mmo? How is this data derived from all the data collected? You can't simply look back 10 or 15 years ago and say... well that was how the market was THEN.. and THOSE people will certainly come back now. Those people are scattered.. and the circumstances in their lives has likely changed. The market research needs to be done now.. on today's market. A lot of survey data needs to be collected.. which I'm sure it has. But.. 99% of the people posting here don't have access to that. So... we need to base our positions on the limited view that we have. Doesn't make us newbies. Doesn't mean we haven't weathered successes and failures. I would wager that the majority of the people posting here have been on the mmo scene for as long as EQ has been around... if not longer. Still.. it seems that your assertions are in the minority.
To some extent, I do agree with you on this :
"Some old guilds will dust themselves off and make it worthwhile. So if this Visionary Realms Development Team can stick to their tenets & keep their DNA pure, with a good release + word of mouth, I see no reason why Pantheon couldn't support 500,000 subscribers by its 3rd year. And quite frankly, that is all the subscribers VR will ever need. EVE is a good example of the direction EQ3/Pantheon is going."
Regarding P99. It is not an alliance with DBG. DBG just an agreement between the company and the group supporting P99 stating that the project is not for profit and establishes guidelines for them to follow to protect them legally for future expansion releases. As far as I know, DBG is not supporting it what-so-ever.
Regarding Ragefire... I currently have All Access. I currently play EQ. Ragefire is not full. It is locked until May 20th release. The beta is currently open.
For the record: I support this game. I want this game. I want YOU to be right about it's success. I have been waiting for this as well. Still won't pay $25/month for it. As I've stated before.. have to draw the line somewhere.
Lets not make this about me, again.
You fail to understand I co-own a FIRM that deals with collecting data, and selling that data as a consultant. I released some generalized FREE information and some of children have a hard time adding it all up. Unable to refute my numbers with simple remedial math, & it is astounding amount of ignorance displayed here. Attacking me does no good, I am not telling you what I feel, but what Information we have tunneled.
Subsequently, it doesn't matter if we are discussing Pantheon, or not.
Any game that comes down the pipe with such wanton mechanics and gamesmanship will follow the demographics I laid out. Just so happens, this is the first (in a long time) AND we are specifically talking about Brad McQuaid, and he builds games different than any other. (This is his 3rd one, to be exact).
That alone makes this project special to me and good many others who follow the industry. I am not affiliated with any Development studio, but Personally excited to see these game mechanics all come together in Pantheon. (Hint: the oldschool is worth 2 million subs, if done right)
I'll admit that it is still "wait & see" with Pantheon (alpha 2 will give more insight), but given what we have seen in the last 10 months, nothing there effects my predictions & only enhances their chances of success. Given the quality and direction of Visionary Realms, I see no reason to halt predictions, or shuffle numbers.
There is no argument here, I am not debating. I offered knowledge and will rebuttal those who are trying to misdirect the data. I can also debate those numbers too, to show they are valid. But you have to be willing to watch & learn.
Now JackCracker-
You openly admit to knowing about the P99 emulator and the Ragefire Progession server, that collectively host more than the people interested in Landmark. Yet, are you really wondering where 100k+ subscribers will come from in the first year? Or are you (& others) just being coy?
What if I told you that Visionary Realms doesn't need you? Or any of your friends, or any of the people you know. That they only need a scant 250K adult subscribers for 4 to 7 years. And that YOU are not part of this exclusive crowd of oldschool MMORPG player.
Would you be angry? How would you feel? Why?
But in reality (ie: what research tells us): We know a good many blokes that would charge a year of Pantheon on Mommies Credit Card, because being told "NO", is instant rage! And ironically telling "NO!" to a 30 year old, becomes an instant challenge.
Don't fool yourself, $25/month is not a barrier.
MMORPGs are a lifestyle. If you find a game you (and you guild likes), no matter what the price you will make a lifestyle change, to become a part of it. That is why, by the 3rd year Pantheon will have 500,000 subscribers, because those people had to adjust to make a lifestyle change, to make Pantheon worth their while. To be able to dedicate themselves to learning to master a role.
To have a second role in life, a second life. To a Roleplayer, that is all the crack you need.
Pantheon is EQ3: Any active player, who has ever played EQ, EQ2 or Vanguard, will buy into Pantheon. So will 1% to 5% of the disgruntled WoW crowd whom are in their 30s and looking to graduate to something more challenging, or just different.
Then- you have a certain percentage of players from LOTR, SWTOR, Ryzom, etc that are sick of those games and ready for new world and new environment/friends.
Then- add in all the meta-freaks in EVE whom will take a quick liking to the meta-combat that Pantheon is being designed around.
Then- you have people who have subs to many different games, just playing MMOs in limbo and Pantheon will be a place where they can put down in.
Those^ are just obvious segments of the MMO space, whom will be trying Pantheon its first year. I ask you and all to go ahead and add them up. ...and only people in their 30s+. What number do you all get? Now take about 30% of those (being conservative) and you have Pantheon vanguards.
All the other segments will come on board later. (Psychology)
When some can no longer handle themselves & submit to the crack. Or, where activity breeds activity and all those dormant, non-active MMORPG players hear about this new new oldschool EQ3 game amassing some 250k and the oldguard will have no prob buying a years up on CC, just for a gander to see what all the commotion is about.
Most will buy second accounts too.
Research shows that money is not the issue with these people. It is simply the lack of quality games that pushes these older players out/off the market. So, $100 more a year to know (& see) Game Masters in game, along with guides and hackers & azzhats being banned? All the better, is there a tip jar?
Watch and learn.
When you end a post like this You will never get your point across to anyone. You are being smug and arrogant. There is no discussion with fanatical extremists.
Any active player, who has ever played EQ, EQ2 or Vanguard, will buy into Pantheon.
Your 'metrics' must be a bit off mate, because I won't be buying it.
And I doubt that I am anywhere near the only EQ/EQ2/Vanguard player that won't be funding Brad's next parking lot staff meeting.
People here seem to forget how rabid the MMO community it. The internet doesn't forget and it doesn't care. If the game's Alpha/Beta/Launch aren't flawless, Brad is going to be ripped a new arsehole. Heck, this is the MMO comunity we are dealing with, so each and every little feature will be scrutinised, flamed and cried about (along with a unhealthy dose of Kool-Aid guzzling). And it isn't just Pantheon that is, or will, be under the microscope. Brad himself has generated a lot of the negativity attached to the project (clueless KickStarter campaign, misappropriation of funds etc.). Misplaced hero-worship can only deflect so much, and negativity sticks like shit to a blanket. And Brad's blanket, much like Vanguard, is too brown.
In this day and age Pantheon has more chance of failing than succeeding. Hopefully, for fans of this project at least, the game will settle into its own little niche and stay solvent, but to expect any more is moving into pie in the sky territory.
Originally posted by Dullahan Ya, but you still back landmark and EQ Next and havent come to the realization that modern MMOs are only moving in the wrong direction. I give you another year or two to change your tune, and lucky for you that is when Pantheon is scheduled to launch.
Basically, if the mmo genre isn't going the direction you want it to. It is the wrong direction? Got it.
Its the wrong direction because, currently, the vast majority are catering to one demographic instead of multiple demographics. Oversaturation. Whats more important than my opinion on the matter is the number of struggling games out there that spent 100s of millions to emulate rather than diversify and innovate. Now look how many big MMOs are on the horizon. Investors don't want to touch this genre with a 10 foot pole.
Finally things are looking up as teams are coming together to create niche games. Its going to be tough, as you can see in the case of Pantheon and numerous other indie games, but eventually a few of them will have success and this genre can move forward once again.
Any active player, who has ever played EQ, EQ2 or Vanguard, will buy into Pantheon.
Your 'metrics' must be a bit off mate, because I won't be buying it.
And I doubt that I am anywhere near the only EQ/EQ2/Vanguard player that won't be funding Brad's next parking lot staff meeting.
People here seem to forget how rabid the MMO community it. The internet doesn't forget and it doesn't care. If the game's Alpha/Beta/Launch aren't flawless, Brad is going to be ripped a new arsehole. Heck, this is the MMO comunity we are dealing with, so each and every little feature will be scrutinised, flamed and cried about (along with a unhealthy dose of Kool-Aid guzzling). And it isn't just Pantheon that is, or will, be under the microscope. Brad himself has generated a lot of the negativity attached to the project (clueless KickStarter campaign, misappropriation of funds etc.). Misplaced hero-worship can only deflect so much, and negativity sticks like shit to a blanket. And Brad's blanket, much like Vanguard, is too brown.
In this day and age Pantheon has more chance of failing than succeeding. Hopefully, for fans of this project at least, the game will settle into its own little niche and stay solvent, but to expect any more is moving into pie in the sky territory.
Fortunately for Pantheon, most people are more interested in buying Brad's games than his virginity.
Originally posted by Albatroes Why does it feel like Pantheon is turning into some kind of cult...?
Because just like CU, SC and a few other "only great ideas" mmos people want to try to convince us what we should be thinking. The funny thing is reading people saying they will pay $25 a month or even a couple saying $50+ a month on a game is that is not even a game yet. Just some ideas and not much to show yet. Just goes to show you that that old saying is true.
For those of you that are fans of this game, but are being realistic and not shouting "WoW Killer" and/or "Next BIG MMO". I do not mean any disrespect to you. For you, I hope the game does launch and deliver.
Most people said they would pay more money if the game gets done with what is promised. There is really few who actually gave money on the idea of it, most people that know Brad's history are waiting to see how it ends up.
This game tennets are EXACTLY what I am looking for. If he makes it happen, I wouldn't care the cost, if it's vanguard style release, I won't touch it.
That's hardly the same as throwing your money in the fire.
Originally posted by Dullahan Ya, but you still back landmark and EQ Next and havent come to the realization that modern MMOs are only moving in the wrong direction. I give you another year or two to change your tune, and lucky for you that is when Pantheon is scheduled to launch.
Basically, if the mmo genre isn't going the direction you want it to. It is the wrong direction? Got it.
Its the wrong direction because, currently, the vast majority are catering to one demographic instead of multiple demographics. Oversaturation. Whats more important than my opinion on the matter is the number of struggling games out there that spent 100s of millions to emulate rather than diversify and innovate. Now look how many big MMOs are on the horizon. Investors don't want to touch this genre with a 10 foot pole.
Finally things are looking up as teams are coming together to create niche games. Its going to be tough, as you can see in the case of Pantheon and numerous other indie games, but eventually a few of them will have success and this genre can move forward once again.
You make interesting points. But, I think you are wrong. I will explain respectfully. MMOs are not like regular games that after 6 months are a memory and let's go to the next new single player game or shooter. They last usually at least 5+ years. In the last 5 years we have had a large influx of new mmos. Some call them WoW clones. But, I think they give quite a bit diversity among a genre that has pretty specific staples.
That being said. The market is flooded with mmos atm. Which isn't a bad thing. We have that choice of different mmos as you suggest we don't. More so then we ever have. And many mmos trying new things like The Division, StarCitizen, Destiny and more action combat mmos like Tera. The problem really lies in this. What you really mean to say is that you like a specific denomination (old school mmos) of mmo and anything that deviates is not to your standard.
We also do have quite a few mmos to look forward to. But, mmos take time. So while we might not have much to look forward to as far as brand new mmos for 2015. We do have some good expansions to hold us over till the next tier of mmos come out. The MMOs I'm speaking of are EQN, The Division, Blade & Soul, Black Desert, SC and etc. It's probably safe to say we will see some announcements of a new mmo or two by the end of the year.
Originally posted by Dullahan Ya, but you still back landmark and EQ Next and havent come to the realization that modern MMOs are only moving in the wrong direction. I give you another year or two to change your tune, and lucky for you that is when Pantheon is scheduled to launch.
Basically, if the mmo genre isn't going the direction you want it to. It is the wrong direction? Got it.
Its the wrong direction because, currently, the vast majority are catering to one demographic instead of multiple demographics. Oversaturation. Whats more important than my opinion on the matter is the number of struggling games out there that spent 100s of millions to emulate rather than diversify and innovate. Now look how many big MMOs are on the horizon. Investors don't want to touch this genre with a 10 foot pole.
Finally things are looking up as teams are coming together to create niche games. Its going to be tough, as you can see in the case of Pantheon and numerous other indie games, but eventually a few of them will have success and this genre can move forward once again.
You make interesting points. But, I think you are wrong. I will explain respectfully. MMOs are not like regular games that after 6 months are a memory and let's go to the next new single player game or shooter. They last usually at least 5+ years. In the last 5 years we have had a large influx of new mmos. Some call them WoW clones. But, I think they give quite a bit diversity among a genre that has pretty specific staples.
That being said. The market is flooded with mmos atm. Which isn't a bad thing. We have that choice of different mmos as you suggest we don't. More so then we ever have. And many mmos trying new things like The Division, StarCitizen, Destiny and more action combat mmos like Tera. The problem really lies in this. What you really mean to say is that you like a specific denomination (old school mmos) of mmo and anything that deviates is not to your standard.
We also do have quite a few mmos to look forward to. But, mmos take time. So while we might not have much to look forward to as far as brand new mmos for 2015. We do have some good expansions to hold us over till the next tier of mmos come out. The MMOs I'm speaking of are EQN, The Division, Blade & Soul, Black Desert, SC and etc. It's probably safe to say we will see some announcements of a new mmo or two by the end of the year.
The problem is, while they may look different or add a few new tricks and mechanics, most of these many games you are talking about are built on the same foundation. Its the same design philosophy of convenience dominating this genre. Its the same thing in EQN and most of those upcoming titles you mentioned, now including Black Desert which has drastically changed their previous unique design to add it to the stack of casual titles.
You are entitled to think whatever you want, but my opinion is based on the numbers. Contrary to what they tell you, F2P is not the sign of a successful game over here in the West.
Originally posted by Albatroes Why does it feel like Pantheon is turning into some kind of cult...?
Because just like CU, SC and a few other "only great ideas" mmos people want to try to convince us what we should be thinking. The funny thing is reading people saying they will pay $25 a month or even a couple saying $50+ a month on a game is that is not even a game yet. Just some ideas and not much to show yet. Just goes to show you that that old saying is true.
For those of you that are fans of this game, but are being realistic and not shouting "WoW Killer" and/or "Next BIG MMO". I do not mean any disrespect to you. For you, I hope the game does launch and deliver.
Most people said they would pay more money if the game gets done with what is promised. There is really few who actually gave money on the idea of it, most people that know Brad's history are waiting to see how it ends up.
This game tennets are EXACTLY what I am looking for. If he makes it happen, I wouldn't care the cost, if it's vanguard style release, I won't touch it.
That's hardly the same as throwing your money in the fire.
Whether this mmo does well, or crashes and burns before it even launches is still up in the air. For those saying that they would play this if the game launches and turns out great. Well , that I am not arguing against. I'm arguing against the few of you that claim delusional ideas of grandeur before even seeing a product. Ideas are great, but they are only words. I will give credit when it's earned.
Originally posted by Dullahan Ya, but you still back landmark and EQ Next and havent come to the realization that modern MMOs are only moving in the wrong direction. I give you another year or two to change your tune, and lucky for you that is when Pantheon is scheduled to launch.
Basically, if the mmo genre isn't going the direction you want it to. It is the wrong direction? Got it.
Its the wrong direction because, currently, the vast majority are catering to one demographic instead of multiple demographics. Oversaturation. Whats more important than my opinion on the matter is the number of struggling games out there that spent 100s of millions to emulate rather than diversify and innovate. Now look how many big MMOs are on the horizon. Investors don't want to touch this genre with a 10 foot pole.
Finally things are looking up as teams are coming together to create niche games. Its going to be tough, as you can see in the case of Pantheon and numerous other indie games, but eventually a few of them will have success and this genre can move forward once again.
You make interesting points. But, I think you are wrong. I will explain respectfully. MMOs are not like regular games that after 6 months are a memory and let's go to the next new single player game or shooter. They last usually at least 5+ years. In the last 5 years we have had a large influx of new mmos. Some call them WoW clones. But, I think they give quite a bit diversity among a genre that has pretty specific staples.
That being said. The market is flooded with mmos atm. Which isn't a bad thing. We have that choice of different mmos as you suggest we don't. More so then we ever have. And many mmos trying new things like The Division, StarCitizen, Destiny and more action combat mmos like Tera. The problem really lies in this. What you really mean to say is that you like a specific denomination (old school mmos) of mmo and anything that deviates is not to your standard.
We also do have quite a few mmos to look forward to. But, mmos take time. So while we might not have much to look forward to as far as brand new mmos for 2015. We do have some good expansions to hold us over till the next tier of mmos come out. The MMOs I'm speaking of are EQN, The Division, Blade & Soul, Black Desert, SC and etc. It's probably safe to say we will see some announcements of a new mmo or two by the end of the year.
The problem is, while they may look different or add a few new tricks and mechanics, most of these many games you are talking about are built on the same foundation. Its the same design philosophy of convenience dominating this genre. Its the same thing in EQN and most of those upcoming titles you mentioned, now including Black Desert which has drastically changed their previous unique design to add it to the stack of casual titles.
You are entitled to think whatever you want, but my opinion is based on the numbers. Contrary to what they tell you, F2P is not the sign of a successful game over here in the West.
What you think of these mmos and their mechanics is really subjective and irrelevant. The point I was making a rebuttal to was that you said that there were no big new mmos on the horizon. Which I argued with upcoming mmos. You keep speaking of these numbers. But, yet you have not produced any evidence besides talking about it.
Originally posted by Dullahan Ya, but you still back landmark and EQ Next and havent come to the realization that modern MMOs are only moving in the wrong direction. I give you another year or two to change your tune, and lucky for you that is when Pantheon is scheduled to launch.
Basically, if the mmo genre isn't going the direction you want it to. It is the wrong direction? Got it.
Its the wrong direction because, currently, the vast majority are catering to one demographic instead of multiple demographics. Oversaturation. Whats more important than my opinion on the matter is the number of struggling games out there that spent 100s of millions to emulate rather than diversify and innovate. Now look how many big MMOs are on the horizon. Investors don't want to touch this genre with a 10 foot pole.
Finally things are looking up as teams are coming together to create niche games. Its going to be tough, as you can see in the case of Pantheon and numerous other indie games, but eventually a few of them will have success and this genre can move forward once again.
You make interesting points. But, I think you are wrong. I will explain respectfully. MMOs are not like regular games that after 6 months are a memory and let's go to the next new single player game or shooter. They last usually at least 5+ years. In the last 5 years we have had a large influx of new mmos. Some call them WoW clones. But, I think they give quite a bit diversity among a genre that has pretty specific staples.
That being said. The market is flooded with mmos atm. Which isn't a bad thing. We have that choice of different mmos as you suggest we don't. More so then we ever have. And many mmos trying new things like The Division, StarCitizen, Destiny and more action combat mmos like Tera. The problem really lies in this. What you really mean to say is that you like a specific denomination (old school mmos) of mmo and anything that deviates is not to your standard.
We also do have quite a few mmos to look forward to. But, mmos take time. So while we might not have much to look forward to as far as brand new mmos for 2015. We do have some good expansions to hold us over till the next tier of mmos come out. The MMOs I'm speaking of are EQN, The Division, Blade & Soul, Black Desert, SC and etc. It's probably safe to say we will see some announcements of a new mmo or two by the end of the year.
The problem is, while they may look different or add a few new tricks and mechanics, most of these many games you are talking about are built on the same foundation. Its the same design philosophy of convenience dominating this genre. Its the same thing in EQN and most of those upcoming titles you mentioned, now including Black Desert which has drastically changed their previous unique design to add it to the stack of casual titles.
You are entitled to think whatever you want, but my opinion is based on the numbers. Contrary to what they tell you, F2P is not the sign of a successful game over here in the West.
What you think of these mmos and their mechanics is really subjective and irrelevant. The point I was making a rebuttal to was that you said that there were no big new mmos on the horizon. Which I argued with upcoming mmos. You keep speaking of these numbers. But, yet you have not produced any evidence besides talking about it.
F2P is all the evidence you need. How many games are still able to survive on subscription. You can count them on one hand.
As to the games you mentioned, the fact that you had to reference a console game, two rehashed eastern titles, and two games with no official ETA, speaks volumes.
Any active player, who has ever played EQ, EQ2 or Vanguard, will buy into Pantheon.
Your 'metrics' must be a bit off mate, because I won't be buying it.
And I doubt that I am anywhere near the only EQ/EQ2/Vanguard player that won't be funding Brad's next parking lot staff meeting.
People here seem to forget how rabid the MMO community it. The internet doesn't forget and it doesn't care. If the game's Alpha/Beta/Launch aren't flawless, Brad is going to be ripped a new arsehole. Heck, this is the MMO comunity we are dealing with, so each and every little feature will be scrutinised, flamed and cried about (along with a unhealthy dose of Kool-Aid guzzling). And it isn't just Pantheon that is, or will, be under the microscope. Brad himself has generated a lot of the negativity attached to the project (clueless KickStarter campaign, misappropriation of funds etc.). Misplaced hero-worship can only deflect so much, and negativity sticks like shit to a blanket. And Brad's blanket, much like Vanguard, is too brown.
In this day and age Pantheon has more chance of failing than succeeding. Hopefully, for fans of this project at least, the game will settle into its own little niche and stay solvent, but to expect any more is moving into pie in the sky territory.
I think you are making this too much about Brad and not enough about Visionary Realms and Pantheon Alpha 1 status. Anything other, is just people trying to side track w/drama.
Also, anyone parading around the idea that EverQuest III will only have 80k Patrons after a few years? Is just someone who has not taken the time to read what this game is, and where it is at currently^, and what has been done over the past months.
Again, no amount of backdrop drama can take away the work done over the last 8 months.
Understand, my metrics are solid.
Here is some more free data: There are more than 7 million disgruntled MMO gamers currently in limbo and/or occasionally jacking in to their games. (If just 2% of those find their way to Pantheon for 4 to 7 years?)
Not just about Pantheon, but other games as well. I offered my free knowledge as a show of support for Visionary Realms. I don't doubt they will be announcing some Partner soon enough. If I had the 50 million to fund 4 years of development, I would invest it instantly. Easy returns on my investment if I want to wait 6 years. I know the secret sauce when I see it. This game in 12 years could be close to making a billion dollars in revenues. It is the difference of 3 years of development, or 4. It is all about time invested.
Comments
Ikr
But it's pointless to argue with them. They will tell you that these are well researched numbers.
Just as well researched as the guy back then who claimed that ESO will have 10 mil subs after the first year.
i have followed Pantheon since its Kickstarter with a mix of optimism/skepticism. I waited patiently and observed as it development unfolded.
This team has made measurable progress and has communicated its philosophy and intentions at every step. And so i personally feel that Brad has largely redeemed himself,and shown he is capable of learning from past mistakes.
I also strongly feel that there is a viable market for this game. 100-250k subs is not some insane fantasy number it is a reasonable expectation based on the demand for this style of MMO.
Of course it will not have WOW numbers or maybe not even original EQ numbers as it is niche and "old school". But so what? Brad has already stated they expect this and the games viability is based on this understanding.
If this team delivers as promised/demonstrated already i am confident the sub numbers will be healthy not MEGA HIT but successful. Are 500k subs possible?, only if they deliver a high quality game fully viable at release ,and the population slowly grows as word spreads of its quality ala EVE. But 100-200k subs IS NOT some deranged fanboi number IMHO.
P.S. funny thing is i still play WOW i have since vanilla and Pantheon is still the game ive been waiting for. I will probably play both and why not?
P.P.S. i would pay $25/month sub for Pantheon but i understand why thats probably not possible. $15/month is plenty of money and is the accepted standard. The team should be able to deliver plenty with that price.
I think enough people have issues with Brad that this game will open with maybe 30-50k players. A lot more will wait and see and then slowly trickle in if they see enough good initial reviews from people who's opinion they trust and then see that the game is being looked after going forwards.
If the game is still getting good positive feedback after 9 months to a year, then I expect there to be sizeable jump in players as though a dam breaks. Still not millions, but enough to take subs to a 6 digit figure. I think word of mouth will be VERY important to the growth, or death, of this game.
As for the possible sub fee? That depends entirely on what you get for your money. Real GMs and/or guides, live events, regular updates both fixing bugs and adding content, no cash shop or purely cosmetic only cash shop. Each of these, and more, increases the amount I am willing to pay per month for a game. If I am getting the same service from Game A as I am from Game B then I won't be willing to pay more for it. Offer me more, or better, service and I'll be willing to pay more for it.
Ok... clearly you are taking the literal meaning of everything I say. Let me rephrase it for you: It's extremely difficult to gauge. Technically... anything is possible.... but that's another debate.
You are obviously very passionate about this game. IDK if you are Brad himself or someone from the team or a very dedicated fanboy. But nothing you've said really convinces myself, or probably anyone else here, that this game is going to explode onto the scene... it truly is all speculation.
You keep talking about all the metrics and numbers out there. But where are they? Honestly... I would love to have a look at the data that you are looking at and get a sense of how you are determining the market for this project. I do understand that they track mmo space metrics and numbers. Of course they do. It's business. And business decisions are driven primarily on the numbers... not some gut feeling. So.. where do the numbers exist about the current demand in today's market for "old school" mmo? How is this data derived from all the data collected? You can't simply look back 10 or 15 years ago and say... well that was how the market was THEN.. and THOSE people will certainly come back now. Those people are scattered.. and the circumstances in their lives has likely changed. The market research needs to be done now.. on today's market. A lot of survey data needs to be collected.. which I'm sure it has. But.. 99% of the people posting here don't have access to that. So... we need to base our positions on the limited view that we have. Doesn't make us newbies. Doesn't mean we haven't weathered successes and failures. I would wager that the majority of the people posting here have been on the mmo scene for as long as EQ has been around... if not longer. Still.. it seems that your assertions are in the minority.
To some extent, I do agree with you on this :
"Some old guilds will dust themselves off and make it worthwhile. So if this Visionary Realms Development Team can stick to their tenets & keep their DNA pure, with a good release + word of mouth, I see no reason why Pantheon couldn't support 500,000 subscribers by its 3rd year. And quite frankly, that is all the subscribers VR will ever need. EVE is a good example of the direction EQ3/Pantheon is going."
Regarding P99. It is not an alliance with DBG. DBG just an agreement between the company and the group supporting P99 stating that the project is not for profit and establishes guidelines for them to follow to protect them legally for future expansion releases. As far as I know, DBG is not supporting it what-so-ever.
Regarding Ragefire... I currently have All Access. I currently play EQ. Ragefire is not full. It is locked until May 20th release. The beta is currently open.
For the record: I support this game. I want this game. I want YOU to be right about it's success. I have been waiting for this as well. Still won't pay $25/month for it. As I've stated before.. have to draw the line somewhere.
Lets not make this about me, again.
You fail to understand I co-own a FIRM that deals with collecting data, and selling that data as a consultant. I released some generalized FREE information and some of children have a hard time adding it all up. Unable to refute my numbers with simple remedial math, & it is astounding amount of ignorance displayed here. Attacking me does no good, I am not telling you what I feel, but what Information we have tunneled.
Subsequently, it doesn't matter if we are discussing Pantheon, or not.
Any game that comes down the pipe with such wanton mechanics and gamesmanship will follow the demographics I laid out. Just so happens, this is the first (in a long time) AND we are specifically talking about Brad McQuaid, and he builds games different than any other. (This is his 3rd one, to be exact).
That alone makes this project special to me and good many others who follow the industry. I am not affiliated with any Development studio, but Personally excited to see these game mechanics all come together in Pantheon. (Hint: the oldschool is worth 2 million subs, if done right)
I'll admit that it is still "wait & see" with Pantheon (alpha 2 will give more insight), but given what we have seen in the last 10 months, nothing there effects my predictions & only enhances their chances of success. Given the quality and direction of Visionary Realms, I see no reason to halt predictions, or shuffle numbers.
There is no argument here, I am not debating. I offered knowledge and will rebuttal those who are trying to misdirect the data. I can also debate those numbers too, to show they are valid. But you have to be willing to watch & learn.
Now JackCracker-
You openly admit to knowing about the P99 emulator and the Ragefire Progession server, that collectively host more than the people interested in Landmark. Yet, are you really wondering where 100k+ subscribers will come from in the first year? Or are you (& others) just being coy?
What if I told you that Visionary Realms doesn't need you? Or any of your friends, or any of the people you know. That they only need a scant 250K adult subscribers for 4 to 7 years. And that YOU are not part of this exclusive crowd of oldschool MMORPG player.
Would you be angry? How would you feel? Why?
But in reality (ie: what research tells us): We know a good many blokes that would charge a year of Pantheon on Mommies Credit Card, because being told "NO", is instant rage! And ironically telling "NO!" to a 30 year old, becomes an instant challenge.
Don't fool yourself, $25/month is not a barrier.
MMORPGs are a lifestyle. If you find a game you (and you guild likes), no matter what the price you will make a lifestyle change, to become a part of it. That is why, by the 3rd year Pantheon will have 500,000 subscribers, because those people had to adjust to make a lifestyle change, to make Pantheon worth their while. To be able to dedicate themselves to learning to master a role.
To have a second role in life, a second life. To a Roleplayer, that is all the crack you need.
Pantheon is EQ3: Any active player, who has ever played EQ, EQ2 or Vanguard, will buy into Pantheon. So will 1% to 5% of the disgruntled WoW crowd whom are in their 30s and looking to graduate to something more challenging, or just different.
Then- you have a certain percentage of players from LOTR, SWTOR, Ryzom, etc that are sick of those games and ready for new world and new environment/friends.
Then- add in all the meta-freaks in EVE whom will take a quick liking to the meta-combat that Pantheon is being designed around.
Then- you have people who have subs to many different games, just playing MMOs in limbo and Pantheon will be a place where they can put down in.
Those^ are just obvious segments of the MMO space, whom will be trying Pantheon its first year. I ask you and all to go ahead and add them up. ...and only people in their 30s+. What number do you all get? Now take about 30% of those (being conservative) and you have Pantheon vanguards.
All the other segments will come on board later. (Psychology)
When some can no longer handle themselves & submit to the crack. Or, where activity breeds activity and all those dormant, non-active MMORPG players hear about this new new oldschool EQ3 game amassing some 250k and the oldguard will have no prob buying a years up on CC, just for a gander to see what all the commotion is about.
Most will buy second accounts too.
Research shows that money is not the issue with these people. It is simply the lack of quality games that pushes these older players out/off the market. So, $100 more a year to know (& see) Game Masters in game, along with guides and hackers & azzhats being banned? All the better, is there a tip jar?
Watch and learn.
Joe Schmo says he is a big cheese in rl, knowing his stuff.
You are all ignorant for not believing him!
Also it's clear that most people will buy and pay for 2 accounts!
Hate to break it to you but Brad and his devs have already said that Pantheon is a niche game. However that doesnt mean that it cannot grow beyond that which I think it will especially if they dont do something stupid like decide on a $25 a month subscription. Otherwise it isnt going to do better than 15k-25k if even that much.. Nowhere near your 250k prediction at that price.. If 250k would do $25 a month dont you think the old premium EQ1 server they had wouldnt have been a complete failure? If 250k would do $25 wouldnt you think many thousands would have done $50 a month for the premium EQ1 server? That didnt happen. It was a complete flop from the beginning.
It is tough enough as it is at $15 a month for an MMO to get and hold 250k players.
I am as big a fan as any when it comes to the EQ style of game but I am not going to be delusional and predict massive success instantly. The market for this style of game is most likely smaller than it was 5 - 10 - 15 years ago because people that were into it then got older and likely have a family or other responsibilities now and may not want or be able to dedicate the time that would be needed. Others between then and now may have only ever played EQ2 or WoW or FF or WAR etc. They may not be interested in a time consuming game.
Speaking in absolutes as you are will just get you into trouble and possibly cause you to look foolish. Be careful.
WOW. Fractal... that whole response is just a big pile of bananas. I have no more to say (ok.. well maybe a little more). You are just a little too crazy for me. I don't see anything in that response that even remotely suggests any real research or data mining done from your end. Only a lot of.... look at this game.. and look at that game... and they will leave those games and come to Pantheon. And the cost of Pantheon won't matter... because it's "crack". WTF?! A co-owner of a firm talks like this? I really hope the other owner is a little more grounded than you are.
Looking forward to Pantheon still.. but the game will do a lot better if people like yourself stayed clear of it and stopped trying to advocate for the game. It'll do better organically. Your crazy talk will just turn people off.
Basically, if the mmo genre isn't going the direction you want it to. It is the wrong direction? Got it.
Because just like CU, SC and a few other "only great ideas" mmos people want to try to convince us what we should be thinking. The funny thing is reading people saying they will pay $25 a month or even a couple saying $50+ a month on a game is that is not even a game yet. Just some ideas and not much to show yet. Just goes to show you that that old saying is true.
A fool and his money are soon parted.
For those of you that are fans of this game, but are being realistic and not shouting "WoW Killer" and/or "Next BIG MMO". I do not mean any disrespect to you. For you, I hope the game does launch and deliver.
When you end a post like this You will never get your point across to anyone. You are being smug and arrogant. There is no discussion with fanatical extremists.
Your 'metrics' must be a bit off mate, because I won't be buying it.
And I doubt that I am anywhere near the only EQ/EQ2/Vanguard player that won't be funding Brad's next parking lot staff meeting.
People here seem to forget how rabid the MMO community it. The internet doesn't forget and it doesn't care. If the game's Alpha/Beta/Launch aren't flawless, Brad is going to be ripped a new arsehole. Heck, this is the MMO comunity we are dealing with, so each and every little feature will be scrutinised, flamed and cried about (along with a unhealthy dose of Kool-Aid guzzling). And it isn't just Pantheon that is, or will, be under the microscope. Brad himself has generated a lot of the negativity attached to the project (clueless KickStarter campaign, misappropriation of funds etc.). Misplaced hero-worship can only deflect so much, and negativity sticks like shit to a blanket. And Brad's blanket, much like Vanguard, is too brown.
In this day and age Pantheon has more chance of failing than succeeding. Hopefully, for fans of this project at least, the game will settle into its own little niche and stay solvent, but to expect any more is moving into pie in the sky territory.
Its the wrong direction because, currently, the vast majority are catering to one demographic instead of multiple demographics. Oversaturation. Whats more important than my opinion on the matter is the number of struggling games out there that spent 100s of millions to emulate rather than diversify and innovate. Now look how many big MMOs are on the horizon. Investors don't want to touch this genre with a 10 foot pole.
Finally things are looking up as teams are coming together to create niche games. Its going to be tough, as you can see in the case of Pantheon and numerous other indie games, but eventually a few of them will have success and this genre can move forward once again.
Fortunately for Pantheon, most people are more interested in buying Brad's games than his virginity.
Most people said they would pay more money if the game gets done with what is promised. There is really few who actually gave money on the idea of it, most people that know Brad's history are waiting to see how it ends up.
This game tennets are EXACTLY what I am looking for. If he makes it happen, I wouldn't care the cost, if it's vanguard style release, I won't touch it.
That's hardly the same as throwing your money in the fire.
You make interesting points. But, I think you are wrong. I will explain respectfully. MMOs are not like regular games that after 6 months are a memory and let's go to the next new single player game or shooter. They last usually at least 5+ years. In the last 5 years we have had a large influx of new mmos. Some call them WoW clones. But, I think they give quite a bit diversity among a genre that has pretty specific staples.
That being said. The market is flooded with mmos atm. Which isn't a bad thing. We have that choice of different mmos as you suggest we don't. More so then we ever have. And many mmos trying new things like The Division, StarCitizen, Destiny and more action combat mmos like Tera. The problem really lies in this. What you really mean to say is that you like a specific denomination (old school mmos) of mmo and anything that deviates is not to your standard.
We also do have quite a few mmos to look forward to. But, mmos take time. So while we might not have much to look forward to as far as brand new mmos for 2015. We do have some good expansions to hold us over till the next tier of mmos come out. The MMOs I'm speaking of are EQN, The Division, Blade & Soul, Black Desert, SC and etc. It's probably safe to say we will see some announcements of a new mmo or two by the end of the year.
The problem is, while they may look different or add a few new tricks and mechanics, most of these many games you are talking about are built on the same foundation. Its the same design philosophy of convenience dominating this genre. Its the same thing in EQN and most of those upcoming titles you mentioned, now including Black Desert which has drastically changed their previous unique design to add it to the stack of casual titles.
You are entitled to think whatever you want, but my opinion is based on the numbers. Contrary to what they tell you, F2P is not the sign of a successful game over here in the West.
Whether this mmo does well, or crashes and burns before it even launches is still up in the air. For those saying that they would play this if the game launches and turns out great. Well , that I am not arguing against. I'm arguing against the few of you that claim delusional ideas of grandeur before even seeing a product. Ideas are great, but they are only words. I will give credit when it's earned.
What you think of these mmos and their mechanics is really subjective and irrelevant. The point I was making a rebuttal to was that you said that there were no big new mmos on the horizon. Which I argued with upcoming mmos. You keep speaking of these numbers. But, yet you have not produced any evidence besides talking about it.
F2P is all the evidence you need. How many games are still able to survive on subscription. You can count them on one hand.
As to the games you mentioned, the fact that you had to reference a console game, two rehashed eastern titles, and two games with no official ETA, speaks volumes.
I think you are making this too much about Brad and not enough about Visionary Realms and Pantheon Alpha 1 status. Anything other, is just people trying to side track w/drama.
Also, anyone parading around the idea that EverQuest III will only have 80k Patrons after a few years? Is just someone who has not taken the time to read what this game is, and where it is at currently^, and what has been done over the past months.
Again, no amount of backdrop drama can take away the work done over the last 8 months.
Understand, my metrics are solid.
Here is some more free data: There are more than 7 million disgruntled MMO gamers currently in limbo and/or occasionally jacking in to their games. (If just 2% of those find their way to Pantheon for 4 to 7 years?)
Not just about Pantheon, but other games as well. I offered my free knowledge as a show of support for Visionary Realms. I don't doubt they will be announcing some Partner soon enough. If I had the 50 million to fund 4 years of development, I would invest it instantly. Easy returns on my investment if I want to wait 6 years. I know the secret sauce when I see it. This game in 12 years could be close to making a billion dollars in revenues. It is the difference of 3 years of development, or 4. It is all about time invested.
Watch & learn.