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Two mmos in '07 WILL K.O. World of Warcraft in North America!!
Zaxx99
Member Posts: 1,761
My prediction...
Lord of the Rings Online will be an insane success for Turbine. Better graphics then WOW. A huge, beloved Tolkien masterpiece loved by tens of millions is being made into an online game! And it is as smooth and just as polished as WOW with better graphics?? Look out Blizzard. Turbine will be stealing ATLEAST 1-2 million of your current WOW accounts within a years time.
The second huge punch to the liver of WoW will come from Mythic/EA with Warhammer Online. This punch will KO Blizzard from the mmo leader in North America and Europe and about 3 or 4 other mmos such as Aion, Huxley, and SUN will start helping to steal the Asian market as well.
I predicted quite a while back (little over a year ago) that WOW would be dead in 2 years. It may take just a little longer, and WOW probably won't be "dead", but it certainly will not still be sitting on top of the mmo market. The competition which is capable of KO'ing our current king is almost here.
As I predicted and said quite a while back, the bigger they are... they harder they fall. And I fully expect World of Warcraft to take some HUGE subscriber hits in the next year or so. Granted, they will still enjoy a few million subscribers at this time next year.. but they will be surrendering millions of subscribers to some new contenders.
Summer of 08 I expect the North American and Europe mmo market to look like this: LOTRO #1, Warhammer Online a close #2.. and WOW #3.
I know flames are coming. Especially from all the people who love WOW. Fine. It's just a prediction folks. I could be wrong as hell. Time will tell.
- Zaxx
Comments
LOL lotr#1, dont make me laugh please.
Lotr appeal wont last beyond a few months if they even manage to gain 100k+ subscribers, the game is exactly like DDO, nice graphics, but not very much else, like i said will last for a few months and then, back to the bragain basement bucket. If anything the games that are going to last and have mass appeal will be Aoc And warhammer. Vanguard community for months before vanguard was released were saying vanguard was going to be the greatest mmorpg of all time, and wow was going to die. Now not even a single word about it being even matched in the same sentance as warhammer or even Aoc, leat alone being a wow killer. I really wounder about u wow bashers , are you all deluded and keep thinking the next so called 3rd gen mmorgp game is always going to kill wow?
My prediction lotr will be a bargain bucket game in 4-6 months, only my prediction, hell i could be wrong, but very unlikely.
Hmm thats pretty bold.
I happen to think, as a result of a ongoing conversation Ive been having via email with a nother regular poster here that the age of the cookie cutter MMO is just about past. So whilst I cant comment on WAR because I have no knowledge of it beyond the publically available information, I can say that LotRo is a pretty standard game that is unlikely to bleed too many experienced WoW players away from their substantial time investments in their current game of choice.
Admittedly there is a solid hook in LotRo as a consequence of the brand power, however similar predictions could have been made about SWG - NGE and Matrix online based on the braod public appeal of the existing fan base.
http://www.mmogchart.com/ has a fairly convincing argument backed by well researched numbers that the market is unlikely to see another product with the success of WoW. Not because there will never be a better game but because at this point in time, more or less everyone who wants to play an MMO is playing one. So rather than creating new participants in the genre games are now leaching from each other as thier major sources of population. I just happen to think that whilst LotRo is entertaining, polished and may well have one of the highest quality launches in MMO history if the beta is anything to go by, it is unlikely to shake the industry with initial numbers in the high hundreds of thousands or low millions.
The greatest unkown factor is how the LotR brand will serve as a drawcard for players new to MMOs. If the release date was 4 weeks after Return of the King screened worlwide and the ads in the movie theatre promoted the game (duh you marketing geniuses) then the situation would be VERY different. But fashion moves very quickly these days and the "non hard core" tolkien fans are already talking about the next SAW sequel more than they are thinking about how cool that fantasy movie they watched last year was... what was it called again ??
Having said all that..... Im usually wrong
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"MMOs, for people that like think chatting is like a skill or something, rotflol"
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"Far away across the field, the tolling of the iron bell, calls the faithful to their knees. To hear the softly spoken magic spell" Pink Floyd-Dark Side of the Moon
Age of Conan so far from my research has shown the most innovation regarding something "out of the box" in upcoming MMO's.
Even with my short comment above, I have been following LOTR, Warhammer Online, and Age of Conan, and will most likely give each one a shot upon its release. (depending on a majority of community feedback that is)
LOL, I havent heard such bold predictions since the first year WOW was out....how it would die off in a a year or so. Now it has what, 7 to 8 million customers? And the big stopper for WOW in NA is LOTRO? haha. No disrespect at all, but thats not even a good assumption.
The game is driven toward a RP type player with no real PVP. Monster play...bleh. The appeal just isnt there, this game will be succesful though, should bring in 500k alone on its name.....nut nothing ground breaking here with LOTRO. The only game remotely close for WOW to worry about will be Warhammer. Similar type games only with Warhammer holding a better hand when the PVP is introduced...or so I hope.
But as with anything, anyone is entitled to there opinion.....but I see no case for LOTRO,,,even they know they arent going after the numbers WOW has. But that doesnt mean they wont be succesfull.
Reality: WoW continued to grow more and more, making every other mmorpg bite the dust.
WoW haters after the first year:"This game still sucks, as soon as the community realises all updates have been raid updates and there is nothing else to do besides raids, they will quit. mark my words"
Reality: WoW's subscriber base increased more and more, breaking all records. first MMORPG to have MASSIVE success in North America, Europe AND Asia.
WoW haters after the 2nd year: "game sucks, blablabla, soon the expansion will come out and it will dissapoint everyone because everyone just kept playing for the expansion, and everyone will leave"
Reality: Subscribers continued to increase more and mor, TBC broke sale records.
WoW haters:"Well Vanguard is totally going to destroy WoW"
Reality: didn't took anything from WoW.
its kinda getting old...
2 more years is pretty good run rate I would say. By then Blizzard may have a Diablo3 and more than likely another expansion for WoW by then. Blizzard isn't going anywhere any time soon, and will remain a leader in the industry.
mmmm yeeeah, thats greeat, a little to the left would be greeeat, ::sips coffee mug:::
While I agree, LOTRO and WAR will be the biggest upcoming MMOs, they won't touch WOW. I'd actually guess LOTRO's will be a distant 2nd, but probably the only one that might approach a million subs, while WAR will be in 3rd place, at a little under 500k subs. I doubt any other MMOs will even come close.
So, who's taking bets? Think I might have some spare change around here somewhere...
When I want a single-player story, I'll play a single-player game. When I play an MMO, I want a massively multiplayer world.
That and the fact that World of warcraft is alot of peoples first MMO - i'm not so sure the jump would be so big among the people who play WOW casually perhaps the hardcore MMO player
The next big thing will perhaps involve PC/Consoles specifically designed for the two and not ported but we will see what happens in the future
I'm expecting LOTRO to be a great success and with the right marketing it has the potential to pull a whole new player base into the genre. I don't suppose there's any need to compare it to WoW or predict WoW's downfall as a result of it - that will depend largely on Blizzard. There's also a good chance that people get drawn into the genre by LOTRO and then go on to try WoW.
Every year, there's a whole new group of kids growing up, faster and cheaper computers and more people across the world getting broadband access. There's still plenty of scope for both games to keep expanding their player base and plenty of room for different styles of MMO in the market too, without them affecting eachother's subscriber numbers significantly.
Not to mention years they may have spent earlier on other characters. We can't say that it would not feel a bit like a waste of time to just change game after spent so many hours doing all this.
Theres another factor too; System specs. I have a couple of friends who enjoy playing WoW, mostly because they have never played anything else like it, but also because their computers can't handle more advanced games and neither of them are interested in upgrading just to try something else out.
thats a pretty weak excuse for trolling. hell even i can do better than that.
sorry but LOTOR sucks. WAR has to overcome the EA kiss of mmo death, mythic aside, every mmo ea has touched sans UO has died in under 2 years.
the thing that will kill wow will ultimately be wow itself. with more and more irrelevant pre formatted response gm's, me too content and lackluster sales of their expansion all signs point to the fact that the best of the wow team left to go work at red rebellion or whatever its called, its name escapes me atm.
(to explain the "lackluster sales statement" regarding the expansion i wanted to take a sec to clarify why i said that. every single fry's electronics ive been to here in southern california has pallets FULL of 200 or so collectors edition burning cursades. most other game stores ive been to out here also have a few in stock. which means that although it may be breaking records, its still selling less than they expected and that can never be a good thing.)
Games i'm playing right now...
"In short, I thought NGE was a very bad idea" - Raph Koster talking about NGE on his blog at raphkoster.com
I dont see WoW being kicked from its throne this year or even enxt year for that matter. There are just far to many people playing it for that to happen. Another thing about WoW is, it has got better and better the longer it has been out (so far anyway) and if it carries on doing this, it doesnt matter what comes out the WoW players are still going to be playing WoW becuase somthing new has been added to there favorite game again.
I like LOTRO alot, i belive it will do well. But will it do as astonishingly well as WoW has done and is currently doing. No, i dont belive it will, however it will do well, mainly due to its name but also its familiar play style that anyone can get into.
The only game that i belive will even scratch WoW with its numbers is WAR, i dont think AoC will do as great as people expect, yes i think it will be great but the system power alone that will be needed to play it will stop a hell of alot of people from being able to play it, WAR on the other hand looks great but still looks like the average computer should be able to run it smoothly.
Garrik
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"once upon a midnight dreary, while i porn surfed, weak and weary, over many a strange and spurious site of 'hot xxx galore'. While i clicked my fav'rite bookmark, suddenly there came a warning, and my heart was filled with mourning, mourning for my dear amour, " 'Tis not possible!", i muttered, "give me back my free hardcore!"..... quoth the server, 404."
The only thing that will kill WOW is itself, I used to hear the same thing back in the ole EQI days. You know what spelled EQ1's downfall was it's own arragance and catering to Furor and his crownies.
WOW won't make this mistake as it is the ultimate casual game. WOW will only fail if it doesn't evolve an grow with it's playerbase.
it's a fun romp for those new to the genre a great starter MMO.
Dutchess Zarraa Voltayre
Reborn/Zero Sum/Ancient Legacy/Jagged Legion/Feared/Nuke & Pave.
While wow did an amazing feet in the mmo market, and there is still numbers to be had, the old addage of "build it they will come" no longer applies.
Now gamers expect a released shape game, playable upon release, and steady patches to improve the game.
Also use to be 150 - 250 k use to be a healthy mmorpg. WOW's numbers possibly escewed that expectation as well.
While lotr may be a huge draw on name alone there has to be more there to keep folks. IF not they will get a nice increase at first but in a few months if turbine doesn't add content and social things they will lose players as they go beyond first few months.
No real knowledge of second game mentioned except in the past the developers handled pvp pretty well. That alone could bring in a different crowd then wow.
However the real kicker question is "why sould i leave wow" What do these games offer that I do not already have? That is part of the decision making process now.
There has to be something there that attracks players besides it's shiney and new. Some of our shiney and new experainces the past few years have been horrid. As a result folks are looking more carefuly before they jump in.
Having beta tested LOTRO, I was completely bored with it. Nothing new, just another simple WoWish type game.
Warhammer is getting way too much hype. This is never a good sign.
My 2 picks would be Chronicles of Spellborn and Pirates of the Burning Sea. These 2 games are actually offering something new.
LOTRO, no chance. The game had, what? 300 000 beta signups? Wow's expansion sold 2.4 million copies in 24 hours. There is still a long way to go for LOTRO. And if you add the fact that they utterly screwed ME I don't see big hopes for this one. It will do good, no doubt about that, but it won't beat 7-8 million subs worldwide.
"Way too much hype?" Yeah, hype turns out to be BS more often than not, but, it is practically necessary for a game to a big hit. WoW wasn't exactly a sleeper. It takes that kind of hype to reach people who don't follow MMOs that closely.
LOTRO's too WoWish? Yeah, one reason it'll be a big hit, when combined with the major IP. Maybe disappointing to me, but have some perspective. It's not a question of what will appeal to me or you, but to the masses who never played any MMOs other than WoW.
Games like CoS, PotBS, and AoC may be good. May even be successful among MMO fans, but there's no way any of them will reach the casual gamer masses that WAR and LOTRO will. They'll be lucky to get over 100k subs, no matter how good they turn out to be.
When I want a single-player story, I'll play a single-player game. When I play an MMO, I want a massively multiplayer world.
I can't help but giggle a little inside when someone makes another one of these "(insert game) will kill WoW" posts.
I'm not saying it's not possible, just extremely unlikely. People who play WoW play it because they like Warcraft and they like the world, it's not as if 5 million people around the world are waiting for the "next biggest thing" to jump to. What people fail to understand is that for many of these people, WoW is fun, they're having a good time, why move?
I'm sure alot of people are going to try and you're right, LoTRO may in fact take some player and WAR might take some more but fact of the matter is, WoW will still have a solid base of people who thoroughly enjoy their expriences in the game .
Between the two though, I really do think that WAR has the much better chance of attracting WoW players. LoTRO, whilst impressive, is too danty and pransy for the typical Warcraft player who likes to get down and dirty in 1-3 hour dungeon crawls and battlegrounds.
What I am hoping for with LoTRO online though is some solid RP experience which as of right now does not exist in many games save for perhaps EQ2 and Vanguard, maybe a little in MxO.
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Games which do interest me and will take some WoW subscribers are as follows..
Warhammer Online
Chronicles Of Spellborn
Age Of Conan
Also on the radar is Fury (although i'm not sure this will make it in 2007)
In the end what will kill WoW is Blizzard, they aren't focusing enough on MMORPG stuff for me such as housing,character customization, a much larger landmass to explore, but instead seem hell bent on turning it into a very mediocre FPS wannabe.