Whenever a game gets predicted to be a WoW-killer on MMORPG.com, it inevitably dies. At least the NDA is off so people know what they're getting.
RF Online and Roma Victor are my favorite WoW-killers.
One thing that made me chuckle was the idea that MMO gamers want something completely new. Yeah, theoretically. Based on the posts on this forum. The actual MMO market hasn't rewarded something new since like Everquest. EVE is doing good, I'll grant you that and it is different. But if it was true then I doubt that Saga of Ryzom's parent company would've filed for bankruptcy.
Having beta tested LOTRO, I was completely bored with it. Nothing new, just another simple WoWish type game. Warhammer is getting way too much hype. This is never a good sign. My 2 picks would be Chronicles of Spellborn and Pirates of the Burning Sea. These 2 games are actually offering something new.
"Way too much hype?" Yeah, hype turns out to be BS more often than not, but, it is practically necessary for a game to a big hit. WoW wasn't exactly a sleeper. It takes that kind of hype to reach people who don't follow MMOs that closely.
LOTRO's too WoWish? Yeah, one reason it'll be a big hit, when combined with the major IP. Maybe disappointing to me, but have some perspective. It's not a question of what will appeal to me or you, but to the masses who never played any MMOs other than WoW.
Games like CoS, PotBS, and AoC may be good. May even be successful among MMO fans, but there's no way any of them will reach the casual gamer masses that WAR and LOTRO will. They'll be lucky to get over 100k subs, no matter how good they turn out to be.
If enough of them hit over a 100k subs then WoW will suffer, perhaps enough to make a dent in Blizzards cash flow, as it is Blizzard will have problems in the coming months since they seem to be totally focussed on PvP they don't want to fix any original game problems and continue to put functionality into A MMORPG that should be in a FPS. Additionally even now people are beginning to get bored with the game less than two months after the release of the expansion.
If Blizzard expected the expansion to give them some breathing time for their next expansion then they need to be releasing one by the end of June at the latest.
I'm still enjoying working to my first 70 in BC but I can see lots of areas where Blizzard could and should do a lot better, I also feel that game ambience features have way too low a priority in the game. eg. some people can't seen why guild/personal housing is wanted, well try this, if you had a guild house you'd be able to have a guild vault a central location to have your own vendors etc. a place to show trophies, a place to craft an alternate hearth and so on. Blizzard needs to pay more attention to this sort of stuff and less on Arenas where there will always be cookie cutter teams and specs or continual whining about how overpowered one specific ability is in one specific situation.
While Wow may see a decline in numbers in the next few years..it will still be sitting on the top of the heap unless Blizz really screws with the gameplay like Sony and Mythic did in the past.
But a more interesting thing to address are the comments others have made here along the lines of....
"all of the people who want to play MMO's already are, and each game will just be stealing from each other".
This was the common knowledge before WOW came along...and look what happened...tons of new MMO players .....
As someone else mentioned, console game players are the great untapped market. One big reason for relatively small MMO players (compared to consoles) is the fact that PC hardware to play them on is too damn expensive. Look at Vanguard...you really need a fairly new, 3K computer to play it. (WOW is better about this,but you still need a 1K rig to enjoy most of its features)
For MMO's to really hit the mainstream they need to run on boxes that cost between 500-750...... and lower is better. Another issue is that many people who play consoles don't see the need for high speed internet..especially when the price point of it was about 40-50 per month.
But our cable companies around here are now ramping up our speeds to 20dn/5 up..... and offering the slower speeds like 5/1 at bargin prices like 24.95..... which will encourage console players to sign up more..especially since they are now joining up online more and more to play their console co-op games.
The next big breakthrough will be the company that creates a good MMO that plays well on a console system...(woudn't hurt if it ran well on a PC either). AOC right now stands to perhaps be the game that bridges this gap...if so it will really sell well and could de-throne WOW......
Much as I love WAR..... 500K is a reasonable estimate.... far more people prefer Pve content to Pvp.... has always been true, will always be true.... even on WOW's Pvp servers most folks spend 90% of their time Pve'ing.....
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
IMHO, the only possible WoW killer, someday, will be WoW II. Something else would need to be so different and so much better AND be available on as many machines to draw away masses of players who have already invested alot of time and energy in WoW. I think the OP knows this and is just trying to start a flame fest.
LOTRO: The only way Turbine could make LOTRO hit huge numbers would be advertising. They need massive advertising and plugs, not just some banners sitting around the internet like they're doing right now. AC wasn't as big as it could be because they relied on word-of-mouth, AC2 failed because of it, and DDO because of the same general reasons. They never have a reason to play their games, except your want to play.
I hate to reference WoW, but for TBC they had a HUGE world premier on the spike game awards, THAT'S a plug. You need to forcefully get your name out there. Turbine has no guts, and will never go anywhere beyond sub-par because of it.
WAR: While WAR has potential, it has a lot of the hype working for it. Look at the pulicity of WAR over LOTRO. Mythic took the time to do a LOT more press than LOTRO. Turbine sat back, did what they do, Mythic has TONS of video content with devs, news releases, etc. WAR relates to gamers: it's an IP that was a tabletop game. Most LOTRO hard-cores that I know aren't gamers, they're mothers and fathers of many now, and barely touch video games.
WAR has both a PvP and a PvE pull. They designed it around every zone having both a PvP and PvE pull for the players. LOTRO has... monster play? Don't make me laugh, it was so buggy and horrible.
---
I really see your predictions as bass ackwards. WAR will be way ahead of LOTRO in sales and gameplay. As I have said before, LOTRO is WoWs PvE zones, mixed with GWs story-telling instances. Nothing more. *snore*
I predict within the first year, WAR will be 3-4 times more successful than LOTRO, easily, if not more. LOTRO has nothing amazing, and the story would be great, if you didn't have slow slow slow questing areas between them. I can only deliver the mail 400 times before I get bored, the 401st time, shoot me.
Turbine, as usual, is incapable of making a hit game. They take IP's with a rich and wonderful history and plaster shoddy game play onto them. Just like DDO, LoTRO is limited in scope and will only appeal to a small fan base, despite its obvious "mass" appeal for story lovers. I don't think many people will be willing to put up with the crappy mechanics to get to that story.
With PvE raiding, it has never been a question of being "good enough". I play games to have fun, not to be a simpering toady sitting through hour after hour of mind numbing boredom and fawning over a guild master in the hopes that he will condescend to reward me with shiny bits of loot. But in games where those people get the highest progression, anyone who doesn't do that will just be a moving target for them and I'll be damned if I'm going to pay money for the privilege. - Neanderthal
While Wow may see a decline in numbers in the next few years..it will still be sitting on the top of the heap unless Blizz really screws with the gameplay like Sony and Mythic did in the past. But a more interesting thing to address are the comments others have made here along the lines of.... "all of the people who want to play MMO's already are, and each game will just be stealing from each other". This was the common knowledge before WOW came along...and look what happened...tons of new MMO players ..... As someone else mentioned, console game players are the great untapped market. One big reason for relatively small MMO players (compared to consoles) is the fact that PC hardware to play them on is too damn expensive. Look at Vanguard...you really need a fairly new, 3K computer to play it. (WOW is better about this,but you still need a 1K rig to enjoy most of its features) For MMO's to really hit the mainstream they need to run on boxes that cost between 500-750...... and lower is better. Another issue is that many people who play consoles don't see the need for high speed internet..especially when the price point of it was about 40-50 per month. But our cable companies around here are now ramping up our speeds to 20dn/5 up..... and offering the slower speeds like 5/1 at bargin prices like 24.95..... which will encourage console players to sign up more..especially since they are now joining up online more and more to play their console co-op games. The next big breakthrough will be the company that creates a good MMO that plays well on a console system...(woudn't hurt if it ran well on a PC either). AOC right now stands to perhaps be the game that bridges this gap...if so it will really sell well and could de-throne WOW...... Much as I love WAR..... 500K is a reasonable estimate.... far more people prefer Pve content to Pvp.... has always been true, will always be true.... even on WOW's Pvp servers most folks spend 90% of their time Pve'ing.....
good point sir good point
only new market MMO's have really failed to reach thus far is that of the console gamer
there have been attempts, like True Fantasy Live Online (cancelled) and Phantasy Star (not so hot) and FFXI (mediocre)
the next big breakthrough in the MMORPG world will be a very, very good game with the mass appeal of WoW that's available for all the major consoles
I beta-tested LotRO too and... I'm sorry but I don't see it as WoW killer. Game was nowhere near as fun as WoW was when I beta-tested it. It's just more of "same ol', same ol'". Graphics are better but whole game play is very low and not fun at all. If I tell you that there were times when I didn't log in for months... That's how fun and entertaining it was and at that time I didn't play any other MMO. I know it was beta... But not much will change. It is great WoW ripoff but no real PvP and some how you just don't feel connected to the world.
Only game I see as WoW killer is Warhammer. They got a good chance at doing some real dmg. AoC will fail at it. WoW is big becouse you don't need some uber sick comp to play it and enjoy it. If I had to pick a MMO to play right now... Well would be Pre-Cu SWG but since that is not an option, I would go back to WoW. I can not play Vanguard, atleast not on enjoyble level and if AoC comes out tomorrow and it's the BEST mmo ever! ... I can't play it. Nor can atleast 50% of WoW players. So back to WoW again.
Warhammer could do it if they play there cards well.
Every time I read your post, I die a little inside...
My prediction... Lord of the Rings Online will be an insane success for Turbine. Better graphics then WOW. A huge, beloved Tolkien masterpiece loved by tens of millions is being made into an online game! And it is as smooth and just as polished as WOW with better graphics?? Look out Blizzard. Turbine will be stealing ATLEAST 1-2 million of your current WOW accounts within a years time. The second huge punch to the liver of WoW will come from Mythic/EA with Warhammer Online. This punch will KO Blizzard from the mmo leader in North America and Europe and about 3 or 4 other mmos such as Aion, Huxley, and SUN will start helping to steal the Asian market as well. I predicted quite a while back (little over a year ago) that WOW would be dead in 2 years. It may take just a little longer, and WOW probably won't be "dead", but it certainly will not still be sitting on top of the mmo market. The competition which is capable of KO'ing our current king is almost here. As I predicted and said quite a while back, the bigger they are... they harder they fall. And I fully expect World of Warcraft to take some HUGE subscriber hits in the next year or so. Granted, they will still enjoy a few million subscribers at this time next year.. but they will be surrendering millions of subscribers to some new contenders. Summer of 08 I expect the North American and Europe mmo market to look like this: LOTRO #1, Warhammer Online a close #2.. and WOW #3. I know flames are coming. Especially from all the people who love WOW. Fine. It's just a prediction folks. I could be wrong as hell. Time will tell.
- Zaxx
I understand the reason this is posted here, but I won't go into that now. WoW will be as big as ever, and Bliizzard will continue to dominate the industry when they announce the World of Starcraft. WoW 2 seems to far off, and in an industry glutted with fantasy MMOs, WoS will break all records. LotR and Vanguard aren't ground breaking in any shape or form. And as much I love the Warhammer universe, do you really want to see a another fantasy MMO hit the market? You see, WAR, LotR, and Vanguard are 2 years too late imo. If they would have come out several years ago, before WoW had a stranglehold on the genre, I believe they would have a real chance. Now it's too little too late, but becuase they are created/ owned by big established companies, they can afford to make themselves a niche market, and really pose no threat to Blizzard. I think Mythic/EA is making a big mistake but not using the Warhammer 40k universe, instead of Warhammer Fantasy. WH40k could crush any sci-fi MMO if only it would come to market. But alas, we have another fantasy MMO.
While I don't completely agree with the OP's comments, one thing I WOULD like to know is just how many people who have responded about LOTRO have actually PLAYED it. Some of the comments are just soooo wrong!
I actually think that's the problem with this site these days. Too many people making comments based on what they THINK a game will be like.. and never even having played it.
_________________________________ JonMichael
Currently: AION, an MMO Beta under NDA Played: WAR, LOTRO, Hellgate: London, CoX, GW, SotNW, DAOC, EQ2, SWG, WoW, AO, Horizons, Second Life, There, TSO Beta'd: There, Second Life, EQ2, DAOC:LotM, LOTRO, Tabula Rasa, Gods and Heroes, Hellgate: London, Requiem:Bloodymare, AoC, WAR, DDO, Fallen Earth
http://www.mmogchart.com/ has a fairly convincing argument backed by well researched numbers that the market is unlikely to see another product with the success of WoW. Not because there will never be a better game but because at this point in time, more or less everyone who wants to play an MMO is playing one.
I don't agree with this statement at all... and if anything in the computing world has ever held true, it is the fact that since the industry has started, naysayers are rife in this industry, and they tend to ironically be the people most qualified to make such narrow-minded statements.
The head of IBM said there was only a market for 5 (five) computers in the entire world.
The head of DEC said "Why on earth would anyone need a computer in their home?"
Million of statements such as these have been made by such folks concerning every single facet of the industry.
If I recall correctly... Before WOW came along, "everyone that wanted to play an MMO already was,"... Was also the rule of the MMO industry... How quickly these exact statements repeat themselves. Goldfish memory ftw. 14 year olds eventually grow up into consumers with incomes and such, thus growing the market... Does history, commerce, common sense, not teach anyone anything? Maybe the MMORPG market won't grow... but I would be damned surprised.
As a practicing computer scientist... the only things in computing that are deemed to be impossible, are those problems for which a Turing machine cannot be built to solve... And I am not even sure if that law won't be broken some day.
When you predict the future, repeat that J.F.K quote... Surely you know the one.
I am not cheering for any particular game... they all tickle someone's fancy... or provide lessons for others to learn from.
Note: I got so distracted and annoyed by the "the market has reached its limits" drivel, that I didn't notice a gentleman post similar statements to my own... Sorry for the repetition... at least he knows that he isn't the only crazy person lol.
Don't take offence to this Razorback... I just happen to strongly disagree with you. I will buy ya a beer .
I was your typical WoW player. I hit lvl 60 in like 7 weeks and i quit two weeks later at the end-game. But the reality of the situation is that WoW is a very well built game for its intended purpose.
I mean, honestly, it is fun to play.
I know people like to talk about graphics this and graphics that but game play is the most important thing to me, yes graphics are decently important, but the best graphics + crappy game play = dead in the water.
For a game to kill WoW it would have to be perfectly created without anything broken and from what i hear from other people that isn't so easy, so before anything can even kill WoW, it has to be in the same league in terms of quality assurance. Most games from what I see don't muster that.
Furthermore, even if "X" game competes with WoW, it has better game play, better PvP, better PvE, and better graphics it will still not kill WoW because i think people are resistant to change and even though a person might realize a game is better, a lot of people will stick with what they know and what they know they'll have fun with.
So i am not so sure a game can actually kill WoW. If there's any game currently out there that should have been able to compete with WoW is Lineage 2 with better game play + better graphics of course it has other ANNOYING things about it, but the point is, it's tough to break 7-8m subscriber base even if a game is superior.
Cryomatrix
Catch me streaming at twitch.tv/cryomatrix You can see my sci-fi/WW2 book recommendations.
why is everyone so obsessed with a "wow killer" why not just play the games you like and not worry if there is a more popular one out there?
wow players like wow, they dont need to be educated or flamed, just let them do as they please. when blizzard release wow2, then we might see a wow killer, in the meantime the game is very much alive and kicking and will continue to be so for many many purple-seeking years.
There is no need for a WOW killer... Why must WOW die? What the market is sadly lacking is quality products... There would be nothing better than for someone to get there fill of WOW, get bored (not due to a crap product, due to the human condition, humans eventually get bored), and then jump into another fantastic game, rinse, repeat... Right now, this cannot be done. I wanna be spoilt for choice.... It's all about ME!!! I want all sorts of different themes.
This whole WOW killer stuff is what nerds do, much like the Linux vs Windows and the Emacs vs Vi debate. You gotta have at least two products, so each side can fight over nothing.
If any new MMO is going to be a "WoW killer" or even achieve more than 250,000 subscribers it will have to have large interest from casual gamers. Which does NOT include Warhammer Online. Sorry people, but Warhammer Online is not casual friendly.
Warhammer Online has great graphics, too good actually. Blizzard purposely kept the system requirements and even made the graphics worse during an early beta phase so more people would be able to run the game on thier low end systems. I have a couple friends that are HUGE fans of Warhammer but they both have crappy computers and to play Warhammer they would have to either upgrade to a new computer entirely(not going to happen) or run the game at it's low settings probably making it look like WoW.
The focus on PvP or RvR is also another factor that will appeal to the hardcore player but not the casual player, especially open PvP that they can not control that will ultimately hinder their gameplay. An opposing army invading a capital city would definitely mess up a casual players daily routine. Casuals are interested in PvP but only when it's on their terms, like the Battlegrounds in WoW. You can't just pick a non-PvP server or avoid the PvP areas in Warhammer because it will affect you somehow and even if you can avoid the PvP why should you?
And let's face it Warhammer has no name recognition on which to sell, Warhammer is a name only a super nerd would get excited about. WoW sold on it's name, Final Fantasy 11 sold on it's name and LotRO will sell on it's name.
It will be a miracle if Warhammer Online gets 250,000 subscribers and an even bigger miracle if it keeps them.
Dammit. Whenever a game gets predicted to be a WoW-killer on MMORPG.com, it inevitably dies. At least the NDA is off so people know what they're getting. RF Online and Roma Victor are my favorite WoW-killers. One thing that made me chuckle was the idea that MMO gamers want something completely new. Yeah, theoretically. Based on the posts on this forum. The actual MMO market hasn't rewarded something new since like Everquest. EVE is doing good, I'll grant you that and it is different. But if it was true then I doubt that Saga of Ryzom's parent company would've filed for bankruptcy.
I was your typical WoW player. I hit lvl 60 in like 7 weeks and i quit two weeks later at the end-game. But the reality of the situation is that WoW is a very well built game for its intended purpose.
I mean, honestly, it is fun to play.
I know people like to talk about graphics this and graphics that but game play is the most important thing to me, yes graphics are decently important, but the best graphics + crappy game play = dead in the water.
For a game to kill WoW it would have to be perfectly created without anything broken and from what i hear from other people that isn't so easy, so before anything can even kill WoW, it has to be in the same league in terms of quality assurance. Most games from what I see don't muster that.
Furthermore, even if "X" game competes with WoW, it has better game play, better PvP, better PvE, and better graphics it will still not kill WoW because i think people are resistant to change and even though a person might realize a game is better, a lot of people will stick with what they know and what they know they'll have fun with.
So i am not so sure a game can actually kill WoW. If there's any game currently out there that should have been able to compete with WoW is Lineage 2 with better game play + better graphics of course it has other ANNOYING things about it, but the point is, it's tough to break 7-8m subscriber base even if a game is superior.
Cryomatrix
Basically, who the heck cares. Play your game and love it for what it is. Please trying to make comparisons of games suc as WoW is becoming tedious to say the least. I doubt there are many out there that care much for WoW slamming/comparing.
All I want is the truth Just gimme some truth John Lennon
The premise of this argument is always a source of endless amusement for me.
It's a post intended to get a reaction, but really has no substance to it. Wait...would this be trolling?
No, the OP is just an opinion or a very bold prediction, however I believe he does give the two biggest mmos of this year accurately.
Your constant posts that call people a troll if their predictions or opinions vary from your own is a lot more on line with "trolling" earthhawk.
Actualy, I didn't call him a troll. I made the statement that making comments w/o basis (or at least that is what the OP has posted) is trolling. Also I dont constantly post that anyone is a troll. So please be factual in your statement if you are going to post them about me. In fact I would love for you to respond by copying ANY of my post that where I have called someone a troll for posting a view different than my own. I'm waiting...
If any new MMO is going to be a "WoW killer" or even achieve more than 250,000 subscribers it will have to have large interest from casual gamers. Which does NOT include Warhammer Online. Sorry people, but Warhammer Online is not casual friendly. Warhammer Online has great graphics, too good actually. Blizzard purposely kept the system requirements and even made the graphics worse during an early beta phase so more people would be able to run the game on thier low end systems. I have a couple friends that are HUGE fans of Warhammer but they both have crappy computers and to play Warhammer they would have to either upgrade to a new computer entirely(not going to happen) or run the game at it's low settings probably making it look like WoW. The focus on PvP or RvR is also another factor that will appeal to the hardcore player but not the casual player, especially open PvP that they can not control that will ultimately hinder their gameplay. An opposing army invading a capital city would definitely mess up a casual players daily routine. Casuals are interested in PvP but only when it's on their terms, like the Battlegrounds in WoW. You can't just pick a non-PvP server or avoid the PvP areas in Warhammer because it will affect you somehow and even if you can avoid the PvP why should you? And let's face it Warhammer has no name recognition on which to sell, Warhammer is a name only a super nerd would get excited about. WoW sold on it's name, Final Fantasy 11 sold on it's name and LotRO will sell on it's name. It will be a miracle if Warhammer Online gets 250,000 subscribers and an even bigger miracle if it keeps them.
One thing that all the Warhammer Online advocates seem to forget is that Mythic really had some *big* problems with their last title DAoC in that they were totally unable to balance RvR between the Realms.
I loved DAoC, but the balance issued really led to their demise. Their servers are pretty darn empty nowadays and despite releases of expansions, have stayed that way.
So counting on an RvR game from a company that couldn't balance their last rvR game isn't something that I'm gonna count on......
Comments
Dammit.
Whenever a game gets predicted to be a WoW-killer on MMORPG.com, it inevitably dies. At least the NDA is off so people know what they're getting.
RF Online and Roma Victor are my favorite WoW-killers.
One thing that made me chuckle was the idea that MMO gamers want something completely new. Yeah, theoretically. Based on the posts on this forum. The actual MMO market hasn't rewarded something new since like Everquest. EVE is doing good, I'll grant you that and it is different. But if it was true then I doubt that Saga of Ryzom's parent company would've filed for bankruptcy.
/ yawn
seems like i've read this exact same post before..... many, many times...
"Way too much hype?" Yeah, hype turns out to be BS more often than not, but, it is practically necessary for a game to a big hit. WoW wasn't exactly a sleeper. It takes that kind of hype to reach people who don't follow MMOs that closely.
LOTRO's too WoWish? Yeah, one reason it'll be a big hit, when combined with the major IP. Maybe disappointing to me, but have some perspective. It's not a question of what will appeal to me or you, but to the masses who never played any MMOs other than WoW.
Games like CoS, PotBS, and AoC may be good. May even be successful among MMO fans, but there's no way any of them will reach the casual gamer masses that WAR and LOTRO will. They'll be lucky to get over 100k subs, no matter how good they turn out to be.
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If enough of them hit over a 100k subs then WoW will suffer, perhaps enough to make a dent in Blizzards cash flow, as it is Blizzard will have problems in the coming months since they seem to be totally focussed on PvP they don't want to fix any original game problems and continue to put functionality into A MMORPG that should be in a FPS. Additionally even now people are beginning to get bored with the game less than two months after the release of the expansion.
If Blizzard expected the expansion to give them some breathing time for their next expansion then they need to be releasing one by the end of June at the latest.
I'm still enjoying working to my first 70 in BC but I can see lots of areas where Blizzard could and should do a lot better, I also feel that game ambience features have way too low a priority in the game. eg. some people can't seen why guild/personal housing is wanted, well try this, if you had a guild house you'd be able to have a guild vault a central location to have your own vendors etc. a place to show trophies, a place to craft an alternate hearth and so on. Blizzard needs to pay more attention to this sort of stuff and less on Arenas where there will always be cookie cutter teams and specs or continual whining about how overpowered one specific ability is in one specific situation.
While Wow may see a decline in numbers in the next few years..it will still be sitting on the top of the heap unless Blizz really screws with the gameplay like Sony and Mythic did in the past.
But a more interesting thing to address are the comments others have made here along the lines of....
"all of the people who want to play MMO's already are, and each game will just be stealing from each other".
This was the common knowledge before WOW came along...and look what happened...tons of new MMO players .....
As someone else mentioned, console game players are the great untapped market. One big reason for relatively small MMO players (compared to consoles) is the fact that PC hardware to play them on is too damn expensive. Look at Vanguard...you really need a fairly new, 3K computer to play it. (WOW is better about this,but you still need a 1K rig to enjoy most of its features)
For MMO's to really hit the mainstream they need to run on boxes that cost between 500-750...... and lower is better. Another issue is that many people who play consoles don't see the need for high speed internet..especially when the price point of it was about 40-50 per month.
But our cable companies around here are now ramping up our speeds to 20dn/5 up..... and offering the slower speeds like 5/1 at bargin prices like 24.95..... which will encourage console players to sign up more..especially since they are now joining up online more and more to play their console co-op games.
The next big breakthrough will be the company that creates a good MMO that plays well on a console system...(woudn't hurt if it ran well on a PC either). AOC right now stands to perhaps be the game that bridges this gap...if so it will really sell well and could de-throne WOW......
Much as I love WAR..... 500K is a reasonable estimate.... far more people prefer Pve content to Pvp.... has always been true, will always be true.... even on WOW's Pvp servers most folks spend 90% of their time Pve'ing.....
"True friends stab you in the front." | Oscar Wilde
"I need to finish" - Christian Wolff: The Accountant
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
A KnockDown, maybe, but no KnockOut.
To the OP:
Good points, but here's some counter thoughts.
LOTRO: The only way Turbine could make LOTRO hit huge numbers would be advertising. They need massive advertising and plugs, not just some banners sitting around the internet like they're doing right now. AC wasn't as big as it could be because they relied on word-of-mouth, AC2 failed because of it, and DDO because of the same general reasons. They never have a reason to play their games, except your want to play.
I hate to reference WoW, but for TBC they had a HUGE world premier on the spike game awards, THAT'S a plug. You need to forcefully get your name out there. Turbine has no guts, and will never go anywhere beyond sub-par because of it.
WAR: While WAR has potential, it has a lot of the hype working for it. Look at the pulicity of WAR over LOTRO. Mythic took the time to do a LOT more press than LOTRO. Turbine sat back, did what they do, Mythic has TONS of video content with devs, news releases, etc. WAR relates to gamers: it's an IP that was a tabletop game. Most LOTRO hard-cores that I know aren't gamers, they're mothers and fathers of many now, and barely touch video games.
WAR has both a PvP and a PvE pull. They designed it around every zone having both a PvP and PvE pull for the players. LOTRO has... monster play? Don't make me laugh, it was so buggy and horrible.
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I really see your predictions as bass ackwards. WAR will be way ahead of LOTRO in sales and gameplay. As I have said before, LOTRO is WoWs PvE zones, mixed with GWs story-telling instances. Nothing more. *snore*
I predict within the first year, WAR will be 3-4 times more successful than LOTRO, easily, if not more. LOTRO has nothing amazing, and the story would be great, if you didn't have slow slow slow questing areas between them. I can only deliver the mail 400 times before I get bored, the 401st time, shoot me.
With PvE raiding, it has never been a question of being "good enough". I play games to have fun, not to be a simpering toady sitting through hour after hour of mind numbing boredom and fawning over a guild master in the hopes that he will condescend to reward me with shiny bits of loot. But in games where those people get the highest progression, anyone who doesn't do that will just be a moving target for them and I'll be damned if I'm going to pay money for the privilege. - Neanderthal
good point sir good point
only new market MMO's have really failed to reach thus far is that of the console gamer
there have been attempts, like True Fantasy Live Online (cancelled) and Phantasy Star (not so hot) and FFXI (mediocre)
the next big breakthrough in the MMORPG world will be a very, very good game with the mass appeal of WoW that's available for all the major consoles
I beta-tested LotRO too and... I'm sorry but I don't see it as WoW killer. Game was nowhere near as fun as WoW was when I beta-tested it. It's just more of "same ol', same ol'". Graphics are better but whole game play is very low and not fun at all. If I tell you that there were times when I didn't log in for months... That's how fun and entertaining it was and at that time I didn't play any other MMO. I know it was beta... But not much will change. It is great WoW ripoff but no real PvP and some how you just don't feel connected to the world.
Only game I see as WoW killer is Warhammer. They got a good chance at doing some real dmg. AoC will fail at it. WoW is big becouse you don't need some uber sick comp to play it and enjoy it. If I had to pick a MMO to play right now... Well would be Pre-Cu SWG but since that is not an option, I would go back to WoW. I can not play Vanguard, atleast not on enjoyble level and if AoC comes out tomorrow and it's the BEST mmo ever! ... I can't play it. Nor can atleast 50% of WoW players. So back to WoW again.
Warhammer could do it if they play there cards well.
While I don't completely agree with the OP's comments, one thing I WOULD like to know is just how many people who have responded about LOTRO have actually PLAYED it. Some of the comments are just soooo wrong!
I actually think that's the problem with this site these days. Too many people making comments based on what they THINK a game will be like.. and never even having played it.
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JonMichael
Currently: AION, an MMO Beta under NDA
Played: WAR, LOTRO, Hellgate: London, CoX, GW, SotNW, DAOC, EQ2, SWG, WoW, AO, Horizons, Second Life, There, TSO
Beta'd: There, Second Life, EQ2, DAOC:LotM, LOTRO, Tabula Rasa, Gods and Heroes, Hellgate: London, Requiem:Bloodymare, AoC, WAR, DDO, Fallen Earth
Which Final Fantasy Character Are You?
Final Fantasy 7
I mean, honestly, it is fun to play.
I know people like to talk about graphics this and graphics that but game play is the most important thing to me, yes graphics are decently important, but the best graphics + crappy game play = dead in the water.
For a game to kill WoW it would have to be perfectly created without anything broken and from what i hear from other people that isn't so easy, so before anything can even kill WoW, it has to be in the same league in terms of quality assurance. Most games from what I see don't muster that.
Furthermore, even if "X" game competes with WoW, it has better game play, better PvP, better PvE, and better graphics it will still not kill WoW because i think people are resistant to change and even though a person might realize a game is better, a lot of people will stick with what they know and what they know they'll have fun with.
So i am not so sure a game can actually kill WoW. If there's any game currently out there that should have been able to compete with WoW is Lineage 2 with better game play + better graphics of course it has other ANNOYING things about it, but the point is, it's tough to break 7-8m subscriber base even if a game is superior.
Cryomatrix
You can see my sci-fi/WW2 book recommendations.
wow players like wow, they dont need to be educated or flamed, just let them do as they please. when blizzard release wow2, then we might see a wow killer, in the meantime the game is very much alive and kicking and will continue to be so for many many purple-seeking years.
This whole WOW killer stuff is what nerds do, much like the Linux vs Windows and the Emacs vs Vi debate. You gotta have at least two products, so each side can fight over nothing.
Which Final Fantasy Character Are You?
Final Fantasy 7
The premise of this argument is always a source of endless amusement for me.
No, the OP is just an opinion or a very bold prediction, however I believe he does give the two biggest mmos of this year accurately.
Your constant posts that call people a troll if their predictions or opinions vary from your own is a lot more on line with "trolling" earthhawk.
If any new MMO is going to be a "WoW killer" or even achieve more than 250,000 subscribers it will have to have large interest from casual gamers. Which does NOT include Warhammer Online. Sorry people, but Warhammer Online is not casual friendly.
Warhammer Online has great graphics, too good actually. Blizzard purposely kept the system requirements and even made the graphics worse during an early beta phase so more people would be able to run the game on thier low end systems. I have a couple friends that are HUGE fans of Warhammer but they both have crappy computers and to play Warhammer they would have to either upgrade to a new computer entirely(not going to happen) or run the game at it's low settings probably making it look like WoW.
The focus on PvP or RvR is also another factor that will appeal to the hardcore player but not the casual player, especially open PvP that they can not control that will ultimately hinder their gameplay. An opposing army invading a capital city would definitely mess up a casual players daily routine. Casuals are interested in PvP but only when it's on their terms, like the Battlegrounds in WoW. You can't just pick a non-PvP server or avoid the PvP areas in Warhammer because it will affect you somehow and even if you can avoid the PvP why should you?
And let's face it Warhammer has no name recognition on which to sell, Warhammer is a name only a super nerd would get excited about. WoW sold on it's name, Final Fantasy 11 sold on it's name and LotRO will sell on it's name.
It will be a miracle if Warhammer Online gets 250,000 subscribers and an even bigger miracle if it keeps them.
LOL
All I want is the truth
Just gimme some truth
John Lennon
No, the OP is just an opinion or a very bold prediction, however I believe he does give the two biggest mmos of this year accurately.
Your constant posts that call people a troll if their predictions or opinions vary from your own is a lot more on line with "trolling" earthhawk.
Actualy, I didn't call him a troll. I made the statement that making comments w/o basis (or at least that is what the OP has posted) is trolling. Also I dont constantly post that anyone is a troll. So please be factual in your statement if you are going to post them about me. In fact I would love for you to respond by copying ANY of my post that where I have called someone a troll for posting a view different than my own. I'm waiting...One thing that all the Warhammer Online advocates seem to forget is that Mythic really had some *big* problems with their last title DAoC in that they were totally unable to balance RvR between the Realms.
I loved DAoC, but the balance issued really led to their demise. Their servers are pretty darn empty nowadays and despite releases of expansions, have stayed that way.
So counting on an RvR game from a company that couldn't balance their last rvR game isn't something that I'm gonna count on......