If server activity number people are reporting is accurate then 4K/server X 12 servers = 48K in peak hours. Assuming 10% of subscribers are on in peak hours and LotRO LotRO could very well have between 400K and 500K subs in NA. If they have as many in Europe they could be over 800K, 1 million may be a stretch though.
10% on at primetime may be a little on the low side, I understand most games are closer to 15%, but it is reasonable to expect a more casual player base and therefore fewer subscribers logged in for a game like LotRO. At 15% they would still have more then 500K subs.
AHH world wide this game has 23 servers and 1 test server so 24 all up and that proof you are talking about was some 1 stating that in MAY there were 40 k copys sold in europe please check ya facts b4 posting it only makes you look silly.
Actually he said 40k sold in the UK, but hey who cares right? Ppl are so eager to bash others its down right scary. I'm not gonna steep to your lvl, I'll just say that every other post on this forum is full of namecalling, badmouthing etc. Its really pathetic and not a good way to get a point across.
They are over 900,000 active subs now. They will reach their 1 mil+ subs within the next 30 days easily. But how fast did World of Warcraft hit 1 mil subs? I know it was released in America Nov 04. I'm thinking Feb 05 is when it broke 1 mil, but not quite sure. Looks like LoTRO is gathering online players almost as quickly as WoW did after it's release. But that isn't saying as much because now there are millions of mmo players looking for a new game thanks to WoW. OR is LoTRO stealing customers from the WoW numbers even more impressive? - Thoughts?
I seriously sereously doubt this lets put it this way We can assume that each server ahs roughly 10,000 players each now how many servers will you need to service just 900,000. Short answer is 90 servers as far as i know worldwide this game has 12. Now assuming each server ahs more than 10,000 and there are 12 of them how many would each need to hold in order to achieve this number of 900,000. Short answer is 75,000 players per server which is a bit big for a sharded server i think.
While its true that eve has 210,000 on one server thats only because the server was designed to hold 300,000 from day one as was the programming that runs it. Also such a server costs around 1,000,000 to buy one and there are not amny around anyway. So the idea that one sharded LOTR server can hold 75,000 and stay stable is laughable. Besides i actually read proof earlier inthis thread that the number of subscribers is more likely 40,000.
And that number is more belivable, now you can say this is false and thats fine but inhte end you hav to actually prove it wont you
AHH world wide this game has 23 servers and 1 test server so 24 all up and that proof you are talking about was some 1 stating that in MAY there were 40 k copys sold in europe please check ya facts b4 posting it only makes you look silly.
Sorry [looks hurt] I admit i didnt read every post in detail and i got the number of servers wrong but does that invalidate my other points?
"Kill one man, and you are a murderer. Kill millions of men, and you are a conqueror. Kill them all, and you are a god." -- Jean Rostand
I had fun playing the game for the 4 months that I did so I won't trash it, but it's really hard to believe Turbine suckered a million people into handing over their cash in such a small time frame. I like the game, but not enough to pay for.
Has anyone else noticed that every time LotRO reaches a milestone like best selling MMO, or a certain number of subs, the haters flock to the post to minimize and flame? Let me share with you what Jerry Castine from Blizzard told me at the Austin Game developers conference. The only game we are concerned with believe it or not is LOTRO. WAR and AoC will have short-term appeal that may temporarily drain our subscriber base, but LOTRO has a development team that understands how to attract and keep the long term subscriber. Is LOTRO a WoW killer? Nope, but it has a large, growing fan base.
Sorry, I just have to point out that this post is utter fabrication.
"LOTRO has a development team that understands how to attract and keep the long term subscribers."
You expect us to believe, that a Blizzard employee would say this about the company who made AC2 and DDO?? Just to refresh your memory... AC2 is closed down. Thats not really keeping the long term subscriber. DDO is regarded as one of the worst MMO's out right now, and its subscription numbers never got very high to begin with, and have been going down ever since its inception.
Seriously, what does this say about LOTRO, when fanboi/viral marketers have to blatantly lie to make their game seem better than it is. Don't even get me started on 1m subscriptions. This thread should be deleted. It is based in lies and deceit. I hope no one believes a word of this drek.
Originally posted by Redline65 There are 11 European servers, 12 North American servers, and one test server that I know of. The test server (Isengard?) is invitation-only, but there are still paid subscribers that play on it. So we're talking about 24 or so servers worldwide.
Okay. 11 European servers? Are you sure these are different servers then the North American servers? The reason that I ask is because when I log into LoTRO now, I see 11 possible servers to log into.. AND because I'm pretty sure I've talked to a guy in the game a while back who said that he was playing from Italy.
But IF there are 11 seperate Euro servers, wouldn't it also be likely that there would be seperate Asian/China servers as well?
Let's first find out IF Europe actually has different servers then North America for sure. And IF they do, I would certainly guess that there are more then 24 total servers, as Asia would likely have some as well.
3. Due to 1 and 2 a LotRO realm can support two to three times the number of subscribers, say 20k for simplicity. Conclusion
LotRO has ~460000 subscribers (20k per realm times 23 realms). Adjustments
Adjust assumptions to own tastes and do the math. Note that the latest WoW numbers came in January, so make your own assumptions on current numbers too. I believe the number of realms back than was fairly close to what it is today though. In any case, best of luck to Turbine and LotRO. Though it wasn't entirely to my taste, I hope the game is doing very well, and continues to do so. We need more subscription based games above the 500k mark.
The game has good graphis but is the same old mmorpg as rest.
No thinking to the game no skill to win just look at lvl and fight or make what you need .
Make only stuff your lvl boring if you cant " make, do , wear , no thinking to the game just like the rest.
LVL 1 should have a good chance to make just as good stuff as anyone , but you cant when there is restrictions on stuff.
Need to make a game where you got to think what is the best thing for you and if you set that up wrong then you deleat toon or make best with that tooon!
I did a search to try and find out some numbers for LoTRO. Nothing. The best I found was like 3 different interviews with Turbine higher-up staff, but they all avoided that question and said that they don't release those numbers at Turbine. Makes me wonder if they would even release a statement at one million?
In another interview with Turbine, a reporter for IGN asked how many subscribers each server could hold: I've copied and pasted that question and answer here.. (the source link is also provided)
------------ IGN 5/18/07 ------------ IGN: Speaking of the load bearing tests you did, where do the servers max out? Can you tell us?
Jeffrey Steefel: (laughs) Well again, we don't disclose numbers, but we can hold many thousands of people on our servers, and it's competitive with what other companies are doing in this area. What we set out to do was to say - we want our world size to be equivalent to what the industry standard is right now, but we want to be able to operate our game, which is a much higher fidelity, at those levels of load, and it seems to be doing that right now. ------------------------------------ Source: http://www.soulcast.com/post/show/66286/The-Lord-of-the-Rings-Online-Post-Launch-AU-Interview
"Many thousands per server". With 24 (or more) servers, 900k subscribers is NOT out of the realms of possibilities. However, that would still mean that over 35,000 active subscribers would be assigned per server (with 24 servers). If they hit a peak time where a third of all those subscribers tried to log in, that server would be trying to put about 12,000 people onto it at the same time! Ofcourse, in that situation, if 12,000 is greater then "many thousands of people" as the Turbine rep said each could hold, then I suppose a waiting queue could be used.
With 24 servers, 900k active subscribers sounds a little much to be honest. I'm certainly not saying the game doesn't have that many, but a number from 250k to 500k would be a LOT more believable to me.
They are over 900,000 active subs now. They will reach their 1 mil+ subs within the next 30 days easily. But how fast did World of Warcraft hit 1 mil subs? I know it was released in America Nov 04. I'm thinking Feb 05 is when it broke 1 mil, but not quite sure. Looks like LoTRO is gathering online players almost as quickly as WoW did after it's release. But that isn't saying as much because now there are millions of mmo players looking for a new game thanks to WoW. OR is LoTRO stealing customers from the WoW numbers even more impressive? - Thoughts?
WoW hit 1mill subscribers within the 1 month of retail launch worldwide
For those that question... according to Jeffrey Steefel LOTRO only had 11 servers total as of a june 6th interview. He also back filled in troubling questions by saying different MMO servers can hold different amount of subscribers. Still 80K per server even casual is way too excessive to be true. Turbine would have released a statement when they hit 500K subscribers as it is a mark few MMOs have actually hit. If the OP said they were close to 300K or 400K I might believe him... but 1 million... not going to happen.
-Atziluth-
- Never underestimate the predictability of stupidity.
Well, here's an observation.... on opening day most of the LotRO US servers were reporting med or high, which a few having queues.... one would assume that with normal growth in a month or two they should have needed to open a few more than those available by the 2nd week.....
yet..... no new servers.... why? because they are losing people at a tremendous rate as well, probably about the same rate as they are gaining customers (hey, if the OP and everyone else can make stuff up so can I)
No, can't see LotRO ever hitting a million, unless the really pull hard from WOW....
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
Hmmm...not that I'm arguing that LotR is a good game and its doing well, but last time I logged in (this last weekend) there were only 12 servers. I really don't think that there are 900k people playing on that few servers. There wouldn't be a square inch to move.
There is also the euro servers too.I think we are using server capacity measurement wrongly .Most base server capacity by WoW standards and this is kind of wrong.
For instance EVER and EQ2 each have a much higher server capacity then WoW servers.I think LoTRo might be more towards eve and eq2 capacity or more.
This game doesn't have to get remotely close to World of Warcrafts numbers to be a SUPER SUCCESSFUL mmo.
250,000 active subscribers right now would be INSANE SUCCESS for Turbine, trust me. And I could easily believe that they are atleast close to 250k, if not more.
Let's assume they do have 250k active subscribers only 3 months after NA launch. That's $50 times 250k = 12.5 mil in box sales. Say 10% joined the lifetime plan at $200 US, that would be 25k times $200 = 5 mil. So approx $17.5 mil just in sales and lifetime memberships.
Then another 225k times $15/month = 3.375 mil per month membership fees.
At 250k, it's safe to assume Turbine has already raked in well over 20 million US dollars. In only 3 months. That's is hardly "failure" or something to be ashamed of.
Just to clear up some things. There are seperate EU and US servers. LotRO probably will never have as many subscribers as WoW mainly due to the fact that Turbine doesn't want to release to the Asian Market. Even if they did release it in Asia its hardly the art style or playstyle that most asians would like. So it probably wouldn't even do well there.
That being said I am sure there are plenty of people playing this game for it to be a long running successfull MMO.
I mostly posted this as a placeholder so I don't keep re-reading some posts.
In America I have bad teeth. If I lived in England my teeth would be perfect.
They are over 900,000 active subs now. They will reach their 1 mil+ subs within the next 30 days easily. But how fast did World of Warcraft hit 1 mil subs? I know it was released in America Nov 04. I'm thinking Feb 05 is when it broke 1 mil, but not quite sure. Looks like LoTRO is gathering online players almost as quickly as WoW did after it's release. But that isn't saying as much because now there are millions of mmo players looking for a new game thanks to WoW. OR is LoTRO stealing customers from the WoW numbers even more impressive? - Thoughts?
Thoughts? I think you are insane if you believe anything you posted as factual or in any other way realistic.
Originally posted by zaxtor99
Another point for any big LoTRO fans.. This game doesn't have to get remotely close to World of Warcrafts numbers to be a SUPER SUCCESSFUL mmo. 250,000 active subscribers right now would be INSANE SUCCESS for Turbine, trust me. And I could easily believe that they are atleast close to 250k, if not more. Let's assume they do have 250k active subscribers only 3 months after NA launch. That's $50 times 250k = 12.5 mil in box sales. Say 10% joined the lifetime plan at $200 US, that would be 25k times $200 = 5 mil. So approx $17.5 mil just in sales and lifetime memberships. Then another 225k times $15/month = 3.375 mil per month membership fees. At 250k, it's safe to assume Turbine has already raked in well over 20 million US dollars. In only 3 months. That's is hardly "failure" or something to be ashamed of.
- Zaxx
I am not going to question your numbers are they are pure speculation, but your premise is severely flawed. LotRO probably cost 20+ million to produce, at least, and there is probably a steep liscensing cost as well (ongoing and initial) so saying they are banking the bucks with 250K boxes sold is only saying you know NOTHING about the industry.
Is LOTRO released in Asia? If it isn't, I seriously doubt it will even come close to 1 million subscribers.
Wow's servers each hold about 2-4 k people at any one time.
If Lotro has 25 servers total worldwide, and each one can hold 10k people ( more than double what a WoW server can hold), that's still only 250k people. I seriously doubt Lotro has anywhere near 1 million subscribers. 1-300k is more likely.
*Edit, I just checked the Lotro europe official forums and there are 11 servers. Add that to the 12 US servers and that's 24.
All your have to ask is how many servers have they added since release. 1 at most? You cannot seriously tell me that Turbine released enough servers to handle the bulk of 1 million subscribers. Europe would account for 40% of the subscriber base at most...
I do not care what kind of equipment trubine has... 600K subscribers on 12 servers is not possible for an mmo.
-Atziluth-
- Never underestimate the predictability of stupidity.
st/show/66286/The-Lord-of-the-Rings-Online-Post-Launch-AU-Interview "Many thousands per server". With 24 (or more) servers, 900k subscribers is NOT out of the realms of possibilities. However, that would still mean that over 35,000 active subscribers would be assigned per server (with 24 servers). If they hit a peak time where a third of all those subscribers tried to log in, that server would be trying to put about 12,000 people onto it at the same time! Ofcourse, in that situation, if 12,000 is greater then "many thousands of people" as the Turbine rep said each could hold, then I suppose a waiting queue could be used. With 24 servers, 900k active subscribers sounds a little much to be honest. I'm certainly not saying the game doesn't have that many, but a number from 250k to 500k would be a LOT more believable to me.
- Zaxx
I don’t think any game get’s close to 33% of its players logged in concurrently. EVE is hitting 15% at its highest points (30K logged in 200K subs) and LotRO should be lower then that.
People have claimed you /who more then 5K people on LotRO servers which would be 14% of your 35K.
So while 1 million is stretching it significantly more then 500K is certainly a possibility.
Comments
Actually he said 40k sold in the UK, but hey who cares right? Ppl are so eager to bash others its down right scary. I'm not gonna steep to your lvl, I'll just say that every other post on this forum is full of namecalling, badmouthing etc. Its really pathetic and not a good way to get a point across.
While its true that eve has 210,000 on one server thats only because the server was designed to hold 300,000 from day one as was the programming that runs it. Also such a server costs around 1,000,000 to buy one and there are not amny around anyway. So the idea that one sharded LOTR server can hold 75,000 and stay stable is laughable. Besides i actually read proof earlier inthis thread that the number of subscribers is more likely 40,000.
And that number is more belivable, now you can say this is false and thats fine but inhte end you hav to actually prove it wont you
AHH world wide this game has 23 servers and 1 test server so 24 all up and that proof you are talking about was some 1 stating that in MAY there were 40 k copys sold in europe please check ya facts b4 posting it only makes you look silly.
Sorry [looks hurt] I admit i didnt read every post in detail and i got the number of servers wrong but does that invalidate my other points?
"Kill one man, and you are a murderer. Kill millions of men, and you are a conqueror. Kill them all, and you are a god."
-- Jean Rostand
What a phenominal idiot you are. Developers are actually discussing new servers, and newsflash close to a million subs is hardly a failure.
haha Let me guess. Lifetime subscription? It's okay, really. Dignity can regenerate if you let it.
I had fun playing the game for the 4 months that I did so I won't trash it, but it's really hard to believe Turbine suckered a million people into handing over their cash in such a small time frame. I like the game, but not enough to pay for.
The game seemed fun while I tried it but I hardly doubt they have anywhere near 1 million subscribers, I'd say maybe more like 200k.
I give you credit for a bold prediction, OP.
Just keep a bucket of water handy.
"LOTRO has a development team that understands how to attract and keep the long term subscribers."
You expect us to believe, that a Blizzard employee would say this about the company who made AC2 and DDO?? Just to refresh your memory... AC2 is closed down. Thats not really keeping the long term subscriber. DDO is regarded as one of the worst MMO's out right now, and its subscription numbers never got very high to begin with, and have been going down ever since its inception.
Seriously, what does this say about LOTRO, when fanboi/viral marketers have to blatantly lie to make their game seem better than it is. Don't even get me started on 1m subscriptions. This thread should be deleted. It is based in lies and deceit. I hope no one believes a word of this drek.
Perception is Reality.
Okay. 11 European servers? Are you sure these are different servers then the North American servers? The reason that I ask is because when I log into LoTRO now, I see 11 possible servers to log into.. AND because I'm pretty sure I've talked to a guy in the game a while back who said that he was playing from Italy.
But IF there are 11 seperate Euro servers, wouldn't it also be likely that there would be seperate Asian/China servers as well?
Let's first find out IF Europe actually has different servers then North America for sure. And IF they do, I would certainly guess that there are more then 24 total servers, as Asia would likely have some as well.
- Zaxx
/em hands out the best post of the thread award
zaxtor - there are no Asian servers because it hasn't launched in Asia yet. LotRO has launched in US, Europe and Australia.
Also, it's doubtful if LotRO will ever launch in Asia.
The game has good graphis but is the same old mmorpg as rest.
No thinking to the game no skill to win just look at lvl and fight or make what you need .
Make only stuff your lvl boring if you cant " make, do , wear , no thinking to the game just like the rest.
LVL 1 should have a good chance to make just as good stuff as anyone , but you cant when there is restrictions on stuff.
Need to make a game where you got to think what is the best thing for you and if you set that up wrong then you deleat toon or make best with that tooon!
WWIIOnline The Real War!
I did a search to try and find out some numbers for LoTRO. Nothing. The best I found was like 3 different interviews with Turbine higher-up staff, but they all avoided that question and said that they don't release those numbers at Turbine. Makes me wonder if they would even release a statement at one million?
In another interview with Turbine, a reporter for IGN asked how many subscribers each server could hold: I've copied and pasted that question and answer here.. (the source link is also provided)
------------ IGN 5/18/07 ------------
IGN: Speaking of the load bearing tests you did, where do the servers max out? Can you tell us?
Jeffrey Steefel: (laughs) Well again, we don't disclose numbers, but we can hold many thousands of people on our servers, and it's competitive with what other companies are doing in this area. What we set out to do was to say - we want our world size to be equivalent to what the industry standard is right now, but we want to be able to operate our game, which is a much higher fidelity, at those levels of load, and it seems to be doing that right now.
------------------------------------ Source: http://www.soulcast.com/post/show/66286/The-Lord-of-the-Rings-Online-Post-Launch-AU-Interview
"Many thousands per server". With 24 (or more) servers, 900k subscribers is NOT out of the realms of possibilities. However, that would still mean that over 35,000 active subscribers would be assigned per server (with 24 servers). If they hit a peak time where a third of all those subscribers tried to log in, that server would be trying to put about 12,000 people onto it at the same time! Ofcourse, in that situation, if 12,000 is greater then "many thousands of people" as the Turbine rep said each could hold, then I suppose a waiting queue could be used.
With 24 servers, 900k active subscribers sounds a little much to be honest. I'm certainly not saying the game doesn't have that many, but a number from 250k to 500k would be a LOT more believable to me.
- Zaxx
400.000 alone had it on retail day in europe.
List of SOE lies
For those that question... according to Jeffrey Steefel LOTRO only had 11 servers total as of a june 6th interview. He also back filled in troubling questions by saying different MMO servers can hold different amount of subscribers. Still 80K per server even casual is way too excessive to be true. Turbine would have released a statement when they hit 500K subscribers as it is a mark few MMOs have actually hit. If the OP said they were close to 300K or 400K I might believe him... but 1 million... not going to happen.
-Atziluth-
- Never underestimate the predictability of stupidity.
Well, here's an observation.... on opening day most of the LotRO US servers were reporting med or high, which a few having queues.... one would assume that with normal growth in a month or two they should have needed to open a few more than those available by the 2nd week.....
yet..... no new servers.... why? because they are losing people at a tremendous rate as well, probably about the same rate as they are gaining customers (hey, if the OP and everyone else can make stuff up so can I)
No, can't see LotRO ever hitting a million, unless the really pull hard from WOW....
"True friends stab you in the front." | Oscar Wilde
"I need to finish" - Christian Wolff: The Accountant
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
For instance EVER and EQ2 each have a much higher server capacity then WoW servers.I think LoTRo might be more towards eve and eq2 capacity or more.
Another point for any big LoTRO fans..
This game doesn't have to get remotely close to World of Warcrafts numbers to be a SUPER SUCCESSFUL mmo.
250,000 active subscribers right now would be INSANE SUCCESS for Turbine, trust me. And I could easily believe that they are atleast close to 250k, if not more.
Let's assume they do have 250k active subscribers only 3 months after NA launch. That's $50 times 250k = 12.5 mil in box sales. Say 10% joined the lifetime plan at $200 US, that would be 25k times $200 = 5 mil. So approx $17.5 mil just in sales and lifetime memberships.
Then another 225k times $15/month = 3.375 mil per month membership fees.
At 250k, it's safe to assume Turbine has already raked in well over 20 million US dollars. In only 3 months. That's is hardly "failure" or something to be ashamed of.
- Zaxx
Why does everyone only factor in the NA servers? Don't forget those crazy euros!
Just to clear up some things. There are seperate EU and US servers. LotRO probably will never have as many subscribers as WoW mainly due to the fact that Turbine doesn't want to release to the Asian Market. Even if they did release it in Asia its hardly the art style or playstyle that most asians would like. So it probably wouldn't even do well there.
That being said I am sure there are plenty of people playing this game for it to be a long running successfull MMO.
I mostly posted this as a placeholder so I don't keep re-reading some posts.
In America I have bad teeth. If I lived in England my teeth would be perfect.
Thoughts? I think you are insane if you believe anything you posted as factual or in any other way realistic.
I am not going to question your numbers are they are pure speculation, but your premise is severely flawed. LotRO probably cost 20+ million to produce, at least, and there is probably a steep liscensing cost as well (ongoing and initial) so saying they are banking the bucks with 250K boxes sold is only saying you know NOTHING about the industry.
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Is LOTRO released in Asia? If it isn't, I seriously doubt it will even come close to 1 million subscribers.
Wow's servers each hold about 2-4 k people at any one time.
If Lotro has 25 servers total worldwide, and each one can hold 10k people ( more than double what a WoW server can hold), that's still only 250k people. I seriously doubt Lotro has anywhere near 1 million subscribers. 1-300k is more likely.
*Edit, I just checked the Lotro europe official forums and there are 11 servers. Add that to the 12 US servers and that's 24.
If LOTR was popular, they would be adding lots of new servers. But they haven't added new servers.
All your have to ask is how many servers have they added since release. 1 at most? You cannot seriously tell me that Turbine released enough servers to handle the bulk of 1 million subscribers. Europe would account for 40% of the subscriber base at most...
I do not care what kind of equipment trubine has... 600K subscribers on 12 servers is not possible for an mmo.
-Atziluth-
- Never underestimate the predictability of stupidity.