WoW will pretty much never fall. Eventually it will get to Retro status and nerds will still be playing on handheld devices in 20 years.
but to an extent i agree with the OP, the MMOs coming in '08/'09 will make a significant dent in WoWs subs. wether you belive it or not people will get bored. Its human nature.
One of the main reasons WoW is so popular is because it looks complex but a retarded monkey with no limbs could play it reasonably well. and it will run on a pretty crappy PC. That and hype. It made MMOs accessible to non MMO'ers. (im not a WoW hater, dont start, im just having a laugh)
Unfortunately now that the are 10mil people who play(ed) WoW, when they are bored of WoW, a portion of those people will go in search of a similar experience but a totally new game. "New found MMO'ers"
and due to liking(or disliking) different aspects of WoW, this mass amount of "New found MMO'ers" will split between games which suit their unique tastes.
Which means that there will probably never be a single "WoW Killer" game. And WoW will never die as new players will join all the time as well as players leaving.
However unless Blizz does something to iron out all the likes and dislikes of every WoW player they will never keep the figures they have now.
/Psilo
EDIT: i missed a few other points
in the future I think that WoW will be seen as the beginners MMO, introducing the Genre to non MMO'ers, after which they can decide upon what aspects of an MMO they like(or dislike) so that they can move on to something that focuses more on the the aspects they want.
Unfortunately due to the huge longevity of an MMO people will wait until they are bored of it before they move on. unlike other games which are drastically shorter and people will move on after they have completed it or whatever.
for example:
Say there was a really easy to play FPS that looked pretty stunning even on a low spec machine. Non FPS gamers would try it. Complete it and decide (for example) that they enjoyed the tactical aspect of the game and then move on to find a very Tactical, more complex FPS.
For an FPS this would happen over the period of a couple weeks/months. but on the MMO scale it would happen over a period of many months/years. Which is why I think WoW is so popular and why it will last a long time as it introduces people to MMOs.
Just for reference i played WoW up until about a month ago, im not MMO'ing at the moment but i am eagerly awaiting AoC,WAR and Aion.
"Now World of Warcraft was launched in 2004, and predicted to last ten years by Blizzard."
I stopped reading here. You do know that EQ is still up and running, right? Actually, some text-based MUDs are still up and running 20+ years later. WoW will last for well over a decade, and will probably remain top dog for over a decade. Even if it loses 90% of it's subs, it will still be top dog.
Otherwise, nice long rant.
20+ years ago there was no internet:P
That is a pretty ignorant thing to say.
A little tech history lesson. Before the internet there were bbs' where people would use 300bps to 2400bps modems to login and chat and such. Before the internet also there were MUDS, people would connect to them the same way as BBS' and play games.
Here is more background on muds, they started out in 1977 probably before you were born.
I had my first computer class in 1973 thank you. I used PLATO back in the 70s, I used tons of special purpose networks in the U.S. Navy. When I left the Navy in 1985, I went to work for Symbolics Inc which was, if you know your history of the internet at all, was the first registered domain on the internet.
You may have learned about it on a wiki. I was there.
WJRAS put the age/wisdom smack down on this forum, love that last post...
WoW=overrated the community is terrible, ive played several MMO's even some free ones that ive liked better. Just because its got a One billion, gajillion, fafillion (babbling)...members dont make it the best or even good..
WJRAS put the age/wisdom smack down on this forum, love that last post... WoW=overrated the community is terrible, ive played several MMO's even some free ones that ive liked better. Just because its got a One billion, gajillion, fafillion (babbling)...members dont make it the best or even good..
If 10 Million happy people and uncontested critical acclaim doesn't qualify WOW as great, what can? Your opinion?? Your opinion means diddly squat=)
WOW has the best reviews of any MMO to date and the biggest playerbase. Those can't be debated, so its certainly the best in a few things.
WoW isnt going anywhere for a while regardless of what game is coming out. The games coming out first have to prove they are better than the same cookie cutter crap being released in almost every game, and the market in general is continuously growing so new games are going to pull in new MMOG players in general as much as take them from other games. WoW isnt perfect at all, but as long as it has a subscriber base of 10 million that is continuously increasing its kind of funny to read any thread concerning the fall of WoW. With 10 million plus active subscribers a ten year lifespan is actually a conservative estimate, especially with games like UO and EQ past ten yeasrs and still going.
Indeed Marvel Unvierse is cancelled atm, however I wouldn't say that cryptic is given up just yet. Just because Microsoft has pulled out mean that this game won't pick up production if another party is intrested in finiancing this game.
STO has yet to be confrimed that it has been canceled, even though prepetual games did cancel G&H rome rising. These are still rumors, but they are just that at this moment.
The cancellations aren't rumors. They are fact. Another fact, whether you choose to believe it or not, is WoW is going to be around a long time. As someone else pointed out earlier in the thread, there's nothing that can "kill" WoW on the horizon. You're not grasping the numbers. If an MMOG can get even 5% of the subscriptions WoW has, it would be a HUGE success. WoW isn't dying, or even sick. Thinking it is just makes you look rather silly.
WoW is not dead, it can not be dead, please. There is one reason of these words. I do not want meet these people in my new MMORPG. Stay away from new titles. Have fun in your beloved game, really, I wish to you a lot of epix, great raids, really, all best to all WoW players but ,,,,,,, stay away from me.
Indeed Marvel Unvierse is cancelled atm, however I wouldn't say that cryptic is given up just yet. Just because Microsoft has pulled out mean that this game won't pick up production if another party is intrested in finiancing this game.
STO has yet to be confrimed that it has been canceled, even though prepetual games did cancel G&H rome rising. These are still rumors, but they are just that at this moment.
The cancellations aren't rumors. They are fact. Another fact, whether you choose to believe it or not, is WoW is going to be around a long time. As someone else pointed out earlier in the thread, there's nothing that can "kill" WoW on the horizon. You're not grasping the numbers. If an MMOG can get even 5% of the subscriptions WoW has, it would be a HUGE success. WoW isn't dying, or even sick. Thinking it is just makes you look rather silly.
FYI, Cryptic took their hero game over to HERO systems and are now building a game called Champion's Online. So no, Cryptic has not given up. Just Microsoft...
First off it will take a long long time for WoW to fall, a simple comparison:
How long has EQ been out and how many subscribers did it have at it's peak, and it is still going!
Secondly you have to realise that the makers of a game as successful as WoW are no fools, they were able to make a game like WoW and will make a similar game to replace it if and when it becomes necessary.
Who cares if WoW looses half their subs, it won't hurt them at all. WoW is going nowhere. I do believe however that their numbers will fall slightly as newer games release.
I've said this before and i will say it again, "In the near future, all games will be nich games, including WoW." Remember you heard it here first. I'm sure that people will glomm onto this later and say that they were the first. Nope it was me and i've been saying it for 2 years now. Social paterns are emerging and the seperation has already begun. Most people just don't see it yet.
The question should not be why or when WoW will fail, but why can't another game company even come close to being as successful as WoW (success measured in terms of players and subs). If someone figured it out how to do it today it would take so long to actually make the game WoW will be losing popularity just because of age. (and no I don't think any game currently being developed will topple WoW)No game will topple WoW, people will just get tired of it due to its age, burning out on the game and its outdated grapahics(which were technically outdated when it was released)
people come and go with with, then returns later because they couldn't find another mmorpg better.....
Happens all the time.
Also always found it amusing to see the haters (burned souls), writtewn the typical "wow= immature/chimp+++", yet they all normally fall into the same box, which i like to call "Ironic boomerang". Their claims for why WoW is a crappy game are always subjective and nothing more than personal opinion, in other words they are being childish, because some other people do not agree with them, not all of us believe the "hate wagon" is the place for the "smart people".
Blizzard have earned alot with WoW, they have the means to make new games with even bigger budgets ever before thanks to WoW cashing in for them now, their step into mmorpg was possibly like evolution between walking and cars... some people hate it, and believes the worst in it, while others just like it plain and simple.
Haters are always more extreme in their ways, trying to attack people, who has a different opinion, with personal attacks (trying) and generalize something.
The belief on the average WoW player's age is one of the funniest things you could ever come across off.
Yes, i understand i also put everyone who has a problem with WoW in one and the same grp; "the haters" but might be the only way for some to understand it anyway.
WoW won't fall.... won't die.... it's become a trend, social theme, the popular game, the game.... It won't last forever unless blizzard keeps making everything better and even then it won't be able to stop people from leaving the game, however it might not be permament, since i've known many who came back after trash talking it to hell, yes that's yet another poetic justice from irony and i really love those parts, it happens alot, it has become completely normal.
These forums have always been biased anyway, one way or the other.
In the end i guess some can't take it that WoW became a succes but really it's not a that big of a surprise with Blizzard behind it anyway, some stubborn and yet childish grown ups will always call out a blizzard game; "kiddie game", let their spite drive them to another game, it will leave us others with less negative people around in the game we enjoy.
You don't have to like WOW. You don't have to play it. But to make fun or insult people because they enjoy it, makes YOU the immature child. When you do it on a forum dedicated to the game you hate, esspecially when you're not playing the game, makes me feel sorry for that person.
Comments
WoW will pretty much never fall. Eventually it will get to Retro status and nerds will still be playing on handheld devices in 20 years.
but to an extent i agree with the OP, the MMOs coming in '08/'09 will make a significant dent in WoWs subs. wether you belive it or not people will get bored. Its human nature.
One of the main reasons WoW is so popular is because it looks complex but a retarded monkey with no limbs could play it reasonably well. and it will run on a pretty crappy PC. That and hype. It made MMOs accessible to non MMO'ers. (im not a WoW hater, dont start, im just having a laugh)
Unfortunately now that the are 10mil people who play(ed) WoW, when they are bored of WoW, a portion of those people will go in search of a similar experience but a totally new game. "New found MMO'ers"
and due to liking(or disliking) different aspects of WoW, this mass amount of "New found MMO'ers" will split between games which suit their unique tastes.
Which means that there will probably never be a single "WoW Killer" game. And WoW will never die as new players will join all the time as well as players leaving.
However unless Blizz does something to iron out all the likes and dislikes of every WoW player they will never keep the figures they have now.
/Psilo
EDIT: i missed a few other points
in the future I think that WoW will be seen as the beginners MMO, introducing the Genre to non MMO'ers, after which they can decide upon what aspects of an MMO they like(or dislike) so that they can move on to something that focuses more on the the aspects they want.
Unfortunately due to the huge longevity of an MMO people will wait until they are bored of it before they move on. unlike other games which are drastically shorter and people will move on after they have completed it or whatever.
for example:
Say there was a really easy to play FPS that looked pretty stunning even on a low spec machine. Non FPS gamers would try it. Complete it and decide (for example) that they enjoyed the tactical aspect of the game and then move on to find a very Tactical, more complex FPS.
For an FPS this would happen over the period of a couple weeks/months. but on the MMO scale it would happen over a period of many months/years. Which is why I think WoW is so popular and why it will last a long time as it introduces people to MMOs.
Just for reference i played WoW up until about a month ago, im not MMO'ing at the moment but i am eagerly awaiting AoC,WAR and Aion.
/Psilo
20+ years ago there was no internet:P
A little tech history lesson. Before the internet there were bbs' where people would use 300bps to 2400bps modems to login and chat and such. Before the internet also there were MUDS, people would connect to them the same way as BBS' and play games.That is a pretty ignorant thing to say.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MUD
Here is more background on muds, they started out in 1977 probably before you were born.
I had my first computer class in 1973 thank you. I used PLATO back in the 70s, I used tons of special purpose networks in the U.S. Navy. When I left the Navy in 1985, I went to work for Symbolics Inc which was, if you know your history of the internet at all, was the first registered domain on the internet.
You may have learned about it on a wiki. I was there.
Sorry, you lose.
WoW cant die
Why?
can you say 10 million subscribers?
can you look at www.mmochart.com?
can you realize that it only takes a mere 20,000 susbscribtions to be considered succsessfull?
can you realize that 20,000 vs 10,000,000 is a very big difference?
can you realize that as long as WoW has over 20k subscribers that the company will be making a large profit?
can you realize that people want to make money?
can you understand the amount of money WoW has?
can you understand that more money = more devs= more content?
WoW can't die because little kids will always need a game to play. However, maybe Hello Kitty will replace WoW for them.
WoW will always be a magnet for immature brats simply due to its popularity and accessability.
WJRAS put the age/wisdom smack down on this forum, love that last post...
WoW=overrated the community is terrible, ive played several MMO's even some free ones that ive liked better. Just because its got a One billion, gajillion, fafillion (babbling)...members dont make it the best or even good..
If 10 Million happy people and uncontested critical acclaim doesn't qualify WOW as great, what can? Your opinion?? Your opinion means diddly squat=)
WOW has the best reviews of any MMO to date and the biggest playerbase. Those can't be debated, so its certainly the best in a few things.
WoW isnt going anywhere for a while regardless of what game is coming out. The games coming out first have to prove they are better than the same cookie cutter crap being released in almost every game, and the market in general is continuously growing so new games are going to pull in new MMOG players in general as much as take them from other games. WoW isnt perfect at all, but as long as it has a subscriber base of 10 million that is continuously increasing its kind of funny to read any thread concerning the fall of WoW. With 10 million plus active subscribers a ten year lifespan is actually a conservative estimate, especially with games like UO and EQ past ten yeasrs and still going.
The cancellations aren't rumors. They are fact. Another fact, whether you choose to believe it or not, is WoW is going to be around a long time. As someone else pointed out earlier in the thread, there's nothing that can "kill" WoW on the horizon. You're not grasping the numbers. If an MMOG can get even 5% of the subscriptions WoW has, it would be a HUGE success. WoW isn't dying, or even sick. Thinking it is just makes you look rather silly.
WoW is not dead, it can not be dead, please. There is one reason of these words. I do not want meet these people in my new MMORPG. Stay away from new titles. Have fun in your beloved game, really, I wish to you a lot of epix, great raids, really, all best to all WoW players but ,,,,,,, stay away from me.
The cancellations aren't rumors. They are fact. Another fact, whether you choose to believe it or not, is WoW is going to be around a long time. As someone else pointed out earlier in the thread, there's nothing that can "kill" WoW on the horizon. You're not grasping the numbers. If an MMOG can get even 5% of the subscriptions WoW has, it would be a HUGE success. WoW isn't dying, or even sick. Thinking it is just makes you look rather silly.
FYI, Cryptic took their hero game over to HERO systems and are now building a game called Champion's Online. So no, Cryptic has not given up. Just Microsoft...
First off it will take a long long time for WoW to fall, a simple comparison:
How long has EQ been out and how many subscribers did it have at it's peak, and it is still going!
Secondly you have to realise that the makers of a game as successful as WoW are no fools, they were able to make a game like WoW and will make a similar game to replace it if and when it becomes necessary.
Who cares if WoW looses half their subs, it won't hurt them at all. WoW is going nowhere. I do believe however that their numbers will fall slightly as newer games release.
I've said this before and i will say it again, "In the near future, all games will be nich games, including WoW." Remember you heard it here first. I'm sure that people will glomm onto this later and say that they were the first. Nope it was me and i've been saying it for 2 years now. Social paterns are emerging and the seperation has already begun. Most people just don't see it yet.
The question should not be why or when WoW will fail, but why can't another game company even come close to being as successful as WoW (success measured in terms of players and subs). If someone figured it out how to do it today it would take so long to actually make the game WoW will be losing popularity just because of age. (and no I don't think any game currently being developed will topple WoW)No game will topple WoW, people will just get tired of it due to its age, burning out on the game and its outdated grapahics(which were technically outdated when it was released)
people come and go with with, then returns later because they couldn't find another mmorpg better.....
Happens all the time.
Also always found it amusing to see the haters (burned souls), writtewn the typical "wow= immature/chimp+++", yet they all normally fall into the same box, which i like to call "Ironic boomerang". Their claims for why WoW is a crappy game are always subjective and nothing more than personal opinion, in other words they are being childish, because some other people do not agree with them, not all of us believe the "hate wagon" is the place for the "smart people".
Blizzard have earned alot with WoW, they have the means to make new games with even bigger budgets ever before thanks to WoW cashing in for them now, their step into mmorpg was possibly like evolution between walking and cars... some people hate it, and believes the worst in it, while others just like it plain and simple.
Haters are always more extreme in their ways, trying to attack people, who has a different opinion, with personal attacks (trying) and generalize something.
The belief on the average WoW player's age is one of the funniest things you could ever come across off.
Yes, i understand i also put everyone who has a problem with WoW in one and the same grp; "the haters" but might be the only way for some to understand it anyway.
WoW won't fall.... won't die.... it's become a trend, social theme, the popular game, the game.... It won't last forever unless blizzard keeps making everything better and even then it won't be able to stop people from leaving the game, however it might not be permament, since i've known many who came back after trash talking it to hell, yes that's yet another poetic justice from irony and i really love those parts, it happens alot, it has become completely normal.
These forums have always been biased anyway, one way or the other.
In the end i guess some can't take it that WoW became a succes but really it's not a that big of a surprise with Blizzard behind it anyway, some stubborn and yet childish grown ups will always call out a blizzard game; "kiddie game", let their spite drive them to another game, it will leave us others with less negative people around in the game we enjoy.
Take the Magic: The Gathering 'What Color Are You?' Quiz.
You don't have to like WOW. You don't have to play it. But to make fun or insult people because they enjoy it, makes YOU the immature child. When you do it on a forum dedicated to the game you hate, esspecially when you're not playing the game, makes me feel sorry for that person.
lol u rly think wow would let itself die out?
even if a super game came along, im sure blizzard would make damn sure they can keep there customers by bringing new things out ;]
dumbest damn game ever
if they made commercials and whatnot for DAoC, it would chew wow up and spit it out, but EA is a bunch of retards.
Woulda, Coulda and Shoulda.. the Ifonly brothers.
"TO MICHAEL!"
That and it's way too late. Besides why I'm sure they'll be using that marketing money for WAR if they plan on marketing.