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How many North American subscribers will Aion have in 6 months?
Ok just curious how well you guys think Aion will do. WoW has 2.5m subs in North America but of course that didn't happen overnight. I'm predicting at least 200k subs since no other major mmo being released this year. It will be great to look back at this 6 months from now and see how people did in their prediction. Please no trolling!
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Comments
Under 500k but more than your 200k
Only in NA, probably between 300 and 400k, should reach around 1 million in all of the western market
My crystal ball is on the fritz, so I'll get back to you.
Just curious, what purpose does such speculation serve? What data are you hoping to gain here? Should we expect a thread six months from now that says, "I was right!" if such an event does occur?
Not an attack, just trying to understand your intentions.
-DR
Played: Ultima Online, EverQuest, Asheron's Call, DAoC, Ragnarok Online, Earth and Beyond, Shadowbane, Star Wars Galaxies, Final Fantasy XI, Phantasy Star Online, Guild Wars, Matrix Online, World of Warcraft
if WH had about 300k after a few month...i say Aion will do more than that.
Your choices were flawed. It will have more than 200k. Sub numbers will go up from release and not decline as well.
less than 50k. I hope americans still have some bits of sanity to not play anything that came from the rotten pits of NCsoft.
REALITY CHECK
Over 9000.
Pointless speculation, really, unless you have something to gain from it.
LOL.. sounds like a personal problem.
_________________________________
JonMichael
Currently: AION, an MMO Beta under NDA
Played: WAR, LOTRO, Hellgate: London, CoX, GW, SotNW, DAOC, EQ2, SWG, WoW, AO, Horizons, Second Life, There, TSO
Beta'd: There, Second Life, EQ2, DAOC:LotM, LOTRO, Tabula Rasa, Gods and Heroes, Hellgate: London, Requiem:Bloodymare, AoC, WAR, DDO, Fallen Earth
less then 1 million
mm by the way im surprised you dont consider gw2 a major mmo isnt it being released in september
Yes, because NCSoft is worse than Cryptic, SOE and Funcom. Riiiiiight.
The first GW2 video was released today together with its website and you say it's getting released in september? Don't expect a GW2 release date before 2011, 2010 maybe, but I highly doubt it.
Meh, double post =/
I think some (maybe more) will stay from the title since it does employ GG (gameguard) as a protective device. A lot of people don't want a rootkit on their system. It installs a device driver that will not uninstall with the game and is VERY hard to get off of your system once on it. A very poor decision by NCSoft to employ such a device.
I'm guessing NA won't be much above 200.000, simply because Aion focuses too much on PvP. Even though more PvE are being added most people will have had enough once they have played through the content. Just after release the number will be 3-500k though.
I dont want to be to harsh but these kinds of posts pop up all the time and all I wanna say is "Hey OP are you dense in the head"? Aion hasnt even been released yet, neither has GW2 so we dont know how they will pan out, granted Aion already has had beta's but Aion will have changed via patches when GW2 comes out.
LOL.. sounds like a personal problem.
Correct me if I'm wrong. NCSoft is the only company that pulled the plug twice in a row within a short period of time. No matter what, if a game is not making money anymore, keeping at least one server up is a sign of their relationships with some long-term customers (even if its just a minority).
SoE at least keeps their games up, NCsoft just shuts them down if things turn out not that well.
REALITY CHECK
A prediction - less than 150k, if that.
200 - 300k subscribers in 6 months is my prediction.
It will draw players from all games but i look for most of the WOW fans who try it to leave which will only help the community. It will take subs from War and AOC due to the PVP aspect. I look for it to settle in with LOTRO numbers or there about.
with the PC market going to the shitter the price of a decent PC now days is very cheap and the fact that Aion can run on almost any average PC id think over 500k.
I doubt this game will have as many subs at their 6 month mark than they do at their 2 month mark.
I was always figuring about 150K, or higher after six month.
NA/EU combined totals would be around 300 to 400k.
I will be honest here:
Between 50k and 1 million.
I CAN'T LOSE!!!
Judging by the areas where the game has been released already for months, you couldn't be more mistaken.
I suggest you do a little research, instead of just tossing out a blanket statement.
I think around the 150k mark. The 1-20 game really is going to nail some people. The combat just isn't going to blow anyone away after coming from WOW or WAR. Its very samey. Very familiar without anythying really new. Its hard to say how many will get through it. Its like playing a prettier version of WAR on the PvE side. I say WAR because the zones are SO LINEAR with the same road down the middle leading you right to the next hub of generic quests...but no public quests to bring people together.
People coming from WOW will be thumped by a major downgrade in the PvE and quest department, which is what most people in the west enjoy. Less races to choose from. Fewer actual choices to customize your character(stats). Simplistic and fairly non-interesting starter areas. Less things to actually do. Fewer reasons to explore. Invisible walls everwhere which boxes people in. The PvP isnt' going to hold them. Flying certainly isn't enough. The ganking isn't going to make many happy. I don't see the new patches doing much to improve things on a general level. MORE generic quests still doesn't fix the problem that they're just generic. RvR isn't enough, even if its good RvR, which it apparently is...even though balance is still questionable. So far all signs indicate the dungeons just don't stand up to WOW's, so what does that leave the majority of people to do who don't like PvP? Quit. Rerolling alts in Aion just doesn't have the same fun factor as other MMOs due to the design of the 1-20 game.
Like AOC and WAR, they'll have nice numbers to start, then it'll fall month by month as many people get bored, evening out somehwere respectable. It looks great, plays nice, but doesn't bring anything new. For those that can get through the teens and into the 20s, there might be hope.