This game will probably sell a million copies, but after 6 months will be whittled down to no more than 500k would be my guess. There simply is nothing new in this game to hold more subscribers than that. It's not a bad game, but it's similar to pretty much every mmo out there right now.
Every new mmorpg gets hype like this before launch and then once it's actually launched you realise the people giving it the hype is like 100 people who are loud on the forums and the game flops.
there wont be Aion in 6 months.. in 6 months everyone gonna be playing something else. Aion is nice but wont hold people above 1 or 2 month subscription in my opinion.
Do you have multiple personalities or something? In anothe topic you say if they can avoid the shortcomings of AoC and War it could be a hit then here you say it won't last six months.
Ugh.. i have only played the beta.. and thats where i base this opinion.
Lets see what will the game be like at release and if they can avoid those errors.. might be an hit.. if not, it wont.
My crystal ball is on the fritz, so I'll get back to you. Just curious, what purpose does such speculation serve? What data are you hoping to gain here? Should we expect a thread six months from now that says, "I was right!" if such an event does occur? Not an attack, just trying to understand your intentions. -DR
No purpose. Zero. Same stupid questions ad nausem. "What if my belly button ruptures?" "Will I ever have an original or educated thought?". It's become an internet forum staple.
It's never ending and there's always a knucklehead to fill the bill.
Aion will do fine. It will end up like EQ2. It will be a safe bet as far as content, population, and longevity.
Beats out your post of HAMMEH TIME!
There is no such thing as a stupid post, just stupid answers.
This thread is merely a study on the MMORPG player base.
Completely and utterly wrong. There's are many many stupid questions and posts in this world, just like this topic.
'How many apples will my apple tree have on it in 16 days? ' 'If I don't brush my dog how much do you think he will shed?'
This is no study professor, It's a generic yawn of a worthless question. Check back in 7ish months and wah-lah, answered.
My crystal ball is on the fritz, so I'll get back to you. Just curious, what purpose does such speculation serve? What data are you hoping to gain here? Should we expect a thread six months from now that says, "I was right!" if such an event does occur? Not an attack, just trying to understand your intentions. -DR
No purpose. Zero. Same stupid questions ad nausem. "What if my belly button ruptures?" "Will I ever have an original or educated thought?". It's become an internet forum staple.
It's never ending and there's always a knucklehead to fill the bill.
Aion will do fine. It will end up like EQ2. It will be a safe bet as far as content, population, and longevity.
Beats out your post of HAMMEH TIME!
There is no such thing as a stupid post, just stupid answers.
This thread is merely a study on the MMORPG player base.
Completely and utterly wrong. There's are many many stupid questions and posts in this world, just like this topic.
'How many apples will my apple tree have on it in 16 days? ' 'If I don't brush my dog how much do you think he will shed?'
This is no study professor, It's a generic yawn of a worthless question. Check back in 7ish months and wah-lah, answered.
Still beats your moronic HAMMEH TIME! reply any day of te week lol.
Dont take it too seriously bud or any other poster, still only a game.
Some of you guys take this forum wayyyyyyy to seriously and this really proves my point.
Agreed... and especially after seeing some footage from TERA Online. I think I'll skip on Aion and wait for TERA instead. I think Blue Hole Studio might have a winner on their hands.
" How many North American subscribers will Aion have in 6 months?"
Well, how many 14 yr old girls are gaming in North America? It seems the game only appeals to said demographic, with all of it's fey male and schoolgirl female avatars and animations and sound, and its pretty glowy soft graphics. Ugh.
we all know you prefer big strong men isnt that right? you like to feel their muscles.
" How many North American subscribers will Aion have in 6 months?"
Well, how many 14 yr old girls are gaming in North America? It seems the game only appeals to said demographic, with all of it's fey male and schoolgirl female avatars and animations and sound, and its pretty glowy soft graphics. Ugh.
we all know you prefer big strong men isnt that right? you like to feel their muscles.
The vast majority of prediction tools people use for things like this are basically their own prejudices. Whether it be for or against.
Years ago so many people thought WoW looked too cartoony and was too kiddish to survive and yet now it is the king of the proverbial hill. So many people thought Eve was too slow and hardcore to survive for very long and yet now it is the only MMO to show steady, if slow, growth over time. So many people thought that SOE would never ruin SWG and that the game would continue on into the halls of legend and yet it proceeded into the halls of infamy by becoming such a monstrosity.
This industry has proven to be anything but predictable when those predictions are based on prejudice. Aion does have wide appeal to be sure, but it more or less holds appeal for the more hardcore of us out there. The kidlet crowd of mmo gamers don't have the attention span to deal with Aion. This is mostly because they are also the young end of the WoW generation of MMO fans. In six months Aion will most likely hold at least a million subs in the west. It already has roughly 2-4 million in the east, the number so varied because of conflicting reports.
The upper threshold for Aion subs will most likely lay in the 2.6-3 million range for western markets as a whole. I can't see it's more traditional (note: 'hardcore' as many people deem it) approach to RPG's pulling in much more than that. WoW has about 4-5 million subs in the west, which right now is pretty much their entire consumer base since it went down in Asia and is still not back up. Aion isn't really any less accessible than WoW. The main difference between the games is that WoW has moved a MASSIVE amount of grinding to end-game with stuff that seems like content, but really isn't. When people complete these grinds most don't feel like they accomplished anything. The 'grind' in Aion rests more with leveling and making consumables, but the leveling pace isn't any slower than LOTRO.
Anyway, in six months I see Aion having probably around 1.2 million subs in total for western markets. Not much more or less.
Hmmm-I know the answer to this question-isn't it similar to if CO has 200k subscribers and Aion has 300k subscribers and they are both hurtling at each other at the speed of light, at what point will they collide? I need my slide rule.
Seriously? I think 1-2 million subscribers if not more
TBH, Warhammer had the strength of a quite popular IP behind it. I know there are those who see Aion as another asian grinder/polished f2p-quality game.
They've got my sub when it releases, though. I haven't managed to get into pvp during the CB events, so that remains to be seen.
since i have heard only good things from beta players so far and its one of the few mmo's coming out soon i think it will have over 250k subs by a few months and if it truly is that good i would be willing to bet it hits 1 mil in the western hemisphere by a full year. hopefully it doesnt pull a conan or WH and flop big time
I would be surprised if it even makes 50K. Too many new titles coming out and NCSoft has already admitted (although not directly) but through upcoming patches that their xp curve is too steep for the majority of players, so i highly doubt this game will attract more than 50K subs.
AoC, WAR and Tabula Rasa had the same ramp up and the same fanbui followings, yet look at them now. AoC continues to strugle, WAR is about to introduce a F2P model for Tier 1 and TR went RIP yet all 3 had the same fanbui followers that Aion has claiming Aion will be the all-and-all of MMORPGS! LOL
Comments
I will say after the updates which give more areas to PvE in....close to one million.
This game will probably sell a million copies, but after 6 months will be whittled down to no more than 500k would be my guess. There simply is nothing new in this game to hold more subscribers than that. It's not a bad game, but it's similar to pretty much every mmo out there right now.
100-200k
Every new mmorpg gets hype like this before launch and then once it's actually launched you realise the people giving it the hype is like 100 people who are loud on the forums and the game flops.
Do you have multiple personalities or something? In anothe topic you say if they can avoid the shortcomings of AoC and War it could be a hit then here you say it won't last six months.
Ugh.. i have only played the beta.. and thats where i base this opinion.
Lets see what will the game be like at release and if they can avoid those errors.. might be an hit.. if not, it wont.
Ok ...wait ....just got back from the future. The answer is......946,034...... well at least on Jan. 20th 2010.
I'd say after the honey moon each 150k in NA and EU. Not to bash the game, but that is the average in the post-wow era.
No purpose. Zero. Same stupid questions ad nausem. "What if my belly button ruptures?" "Will I ever have an original or educated thought?". It's become an internet forum staple.
It's never ending and there's always a knucklehead to fill the bill.
Aion will do fine. It will end up like EQ2. It will be a safe bet as far as content, population, and longevity.
Beats out your post of HAMMEH TIME!
There is no such thing as a stupid post, just stupid answers.
This thread is merely a study on the MMORPG player base.
Completely and utterly wrong. There's are many many stupid questions and posts in this world, just like this topic.
'How many apples will my apple tree have on it in 16 days? ' 'If I don't brush my dog how much do you think he will shed?'
This is no study professor, It's a generic yawn of a worthless question. Check back in 7ish months and wah-lah, answered.
For what it offers and looking at how the market is today. I would guess about 100-150k active subscribers after 6 months.
No purpose. Zero. Same stupid questions ad nausem. "What if my belly button ruptures?" "Will I ever have an original or educated thought?". It's become an internet forum staple.
It's never ending and there's always a knucklehead to fill the bill.
Aion will do fine. It will end up like EQ2. It will be a safe bet as far as content, population, and longevity.
Beats out your post of HAMMEH TIME!
There is no such thing as a stupid post, just stupid answers.
This thread is merely a study on the MMORPG player base.
Completely and utterly wrong. There's are many many stupid questions and posts in this world, just like this topic.
'How many apples will my apple tree have on it in 16 days? ' 'If I don't brush my dog how much do you think he will shed?'
This is no study professor, It's a generic yawn of a worthless question. Check back in 7ish months and wah-lah, answered.
Still beats your moronic HAMMEH TIME! reply any day of te week lol.
Dont take it too seriously bud or any other poster, still only a game.
Some of you guys take this forum wayyyyyyy to seriously and this really proves my point.
RELAX! HAMMEH TIME!
Fight Me! http://zunarn.mybrute.com
About 200k or less.
Aion ain't that special.
Agreed... and especially after seeing some footage from TERA Online. I think I'll skip on Aion and wait for TERA instead. I think Blue Hole Studio might have a winner on their hands.
we all know you prefer big strong men isnt that right? you like to feel their muscles.
we all know you prefer big strong men isnt that right? you like to feel their muscles.
I'm cool with "fey males" lol
The vast majority of prediction tools people use for things like this are basically their own prejudices. Whether it be for or against.
Years ago so many people thought WoW looked too cartoony and was too kiddish to survive and yet now it is the king of the proverbial hill. So many people thought Eve was too slow and hardcore to survive for very long and yet now it is the only MMO to show steady, if slow, growth over time. So many people thought that SOE would never ruin SWG and that the game would continue on into the halls of legend and yet it proceeded into the halls of infamy by becoming such a monstrosity.
This industry has proven to be anything but predictable when those predictions are based on prejudice. Aion does have wide appeal to be sure, but it more or less holds appeal for the more hardcore of us out there. The kidlet crowd of mmo gamers don't have the attention span to deal with Aion. This is mostly because they are also the young end of the WoW generation of MMO fans. In six months Aion will most likely hold at least a million subs in the west. It already has roughly 2-4 million in the east, the number so varied because of conflicting reports.
The upper threshold for Aion subs will most likely lay in the 2.6-3 million range for western markets as a whole. I can't see it's more traditional (note: 'hardcore' as many people deem it) approach to RPG's pulling in much more than that. WoW has about 4-5 million subs in the west, which right now is pretty much their entire consumer base since it went down in Asia and is still not back up. Aion isn't really any less accessible than WoW. The main difference between the games is that WoW has moved a MASSIVE amount of grinding to end-game with stuff that seems like content, but really isn't. When people complete these grinds most don't feel like they accomplished anything. The 'grind' in Aion rests more with leveling and making consumables, but the leveling pace isn't any slower than LOTRO.
Anyway, in six months I see Aion having probably around 1.2 million subs in total for western markets. Not much more or less.
Hmmm-I know the answer to this question-isn't it similar to if CO has 200k subscribers and Aion has 300k subscribers and they are both hurtling at each other at the speed of light, at what point will they collide? I need my slide rule.
Seriously? I think 1-2 million subscribers if not more
TBH, Warhammer had the strength of a quite popular IP behind it. I know there are those who see Aion as another asian grinder/polished f2p-quality game.
They've got my sub when it releases, though. I haven't managed to get into pvp during the CB events, so that remains to be seen.
Being realistic, I don't even think it's appropriate for the poll to have a 50k - 200k options.
since i have heard only good things from beta players so far and its one of the few mmo's coming out soon i think it will have over 250k subs by a few months and if it truly is that good i would be willing to bet it hits 1 mil in the western hemisphere by a full year. hopefully it doesnt pull a conan or WH and flop big time
I am absolutely sure beyond the shadow of any doubt that in one years time AION will have more than one subscriber to be sure, unless I am mistaken.
--
Delanor
150k to 300k Western Subs.
I would be surprised if it even makes 50K. Too many new titles coming out and NCSoft has already admitted (although not directly) but through upcoming patches that their xp curve is too steep for the majority of players, so i highly doubt this game will attract more than 50K subs.
AoC, WAR and Tabula Rasa had the same ramp up and the same fanbui followings, yet look at them now. AoC continues to strugle, WAR is about to introduce a F2P model for Tier 1 and TR went RIP yet all 3 had the same fanbui followers that Aion has claiming Aion will be the all-and-all of MMORPGS! LOL
So i say 50k tops!
I like Aion and i want it to do well but i fell that the time it takes to play it may cause somepeople to not renew their subscriptions.