Originally posted by describable Originally posted by Xondar123
Originally posted by describable
http://www.incgamers.com/News/21628/star-trek-online-has-over-100000-subscribers problem - Last month, Cryptic made a press release announcing that it had over one million registered accounts following the launch of STO. According to BioWare, its upcoming MMO Star Wars: The Old Republic will need at least one million subscribers per month just to break even.
If that 1 million registered accounts thing wasn't blatant marketing spin, then one could say that STO lost almost 90% of its playerbase in a single month. lol yeah... registering an account is nothing though... but even doing a complex equation involving the marketing spin and the possible real numbers. It's still not encouraging for Cryptic... although i'm surprised it has 100,000. My estimate was 50,000. time will tell, time will tell - einstein (red alert), queue some awesome music...
problem - Last month, Cryptic made a press release announcing that it had over one million registered accounts following the launch of STO.
According to BioWare, its upcoming MMO Star Wars: The Old Republic will need at least one million subscribers per month just to break even.
@ incgamers.com: AoC and WAR have a rumored 300k each? LOL I bet they don't have that combined. AoC probably hasn't had 300k since like Sept 08 and WAR since Jan 2009, which is the last time they announced their sub numbers AFAIK.
I'm sure STO will be under 100k by the end of next week when the subs of monthly players who stuck around hoping Season 1/magic 45 day patch would add a ton of content mostly expire.
Exactly my point. I can't help but laugh at people who are so obsessed with sub numbers and some how have this notion made up in their mind that 1+ million subs is the only true path to success.
IMO.. I think the total lack of numbers bragging by Cryptic says it all.. Obviously they aren't proud of their game or they would be bosting numbers of box sales and subs....... right?
Exactly my point. I can't help but laugh at people who are so obsessed with sub numbers and some how have this notion made up in their mind that 1+ million subs is the only true path to success.
Of course not. But the fact that they announced their subs as "over 100k" is somewhat odd considering they were crowing about a 1 million accounts registered just a couple of weeks before. if it has over 100k subs, they've met their goals they've set. Why push Lifetime subs yet again? Say they have 150k subs and 2/3 of those are monthly. That's 1.5 million a month but probably more since I doubt they have 50k lifetime subs. If they're pulling in that kind of money a month, why promote a sub plan that provides no additional sub money in the future. Sure some of those people will buy stuff from the c store but I doubt many will spend $15 monthly there.
Exactly my point. I can't help but laugh at people who are so obsessed with sub numbers and some how have this notion made up in their mind that 1+ million subs is the only true path to success.
Of course not. But the fact that they announced their subs as "over 100k" is somewhat odd considering they were crowing about a 1 million accounts registered just a couple of weeks before.
Crowing? it was more like a press release or sharing of info like any other gaming company does. But this topic is not about that. The intent of OP is to show that somehow XFIRE is a reliable tool which can be used to determine whther a MMO is a success or a failure.
Exactly my point. I can't help but laugh at people who are so obsessed with sub numbers and some how have this notion made up in their mind that 1+ million subs is the only true path to success.
Of course not. But the fact that they announced their subs as "over 100k" is somewhat odd considering they were crowing about a 1 million accounts registered just a couple of weeks before.
Crowing? it was more like a press release or sharing of info like any other gaming company does. But this topic is not about that. The intent of OP is to show that somehow XFIRE is a reliable tool which can be used to determine whther a MMO is a success or a failure.
Well your response did nothing to prove it either way so what was your point?
Exactly my point. I can't help but laugh at people who are so obsessed with sub numbers and some how have this notion made up in their mind that 1+ million subs is the only true path to success.
Of course not. But the fact that they announced their subs as "over 100k" is somewhat odd considering they were crowing about a 1 million accounts registered just a couple of weeks before.
Crowing? it was more like a press release or sharing of info like any other gaming company does. But this topic is not about that. The intent of OP is to show that somehow XFIRE is a reliable tool which can be used to determine whther a MMO is a success or a failure.
Well your response did nothing to prove it either way so what was your point?
Why do i need to prove anything? i am not the one who made this topic and used XFIRE to show if a certain game is failing or not. Considering that only a fraction of MMO players use XFIRE, i guess its OP who needs to prove his point not me.
Exactly my point. I can't help but laugh at people who are so obsessed with sub numbers and some how have this notion made up in their mind that 1+ million subs is the only true path to success.
Of course not. But the fact that they announced their subs as "over 100k" is somewhat odd considering they were crowing about a 1 million accounts registered just a couple of weeks before.
Crowing? it was more like a press release or sharing of info like any other gaming company does. But this topic is not about that. The intent of OP is to show that somehow XFIRE is a reliable tool which can be used to determine whther a MMO is a success or a failure.
Well your response did nothing to prove it either way so what was your point?
Why do i need to prove anything? i am not the one who made this topic and used XFIRE to show if a certain game is failing or not. Considering that only a fraction of MMO players use XFIRE, i guess its OP who needs to prove his point not me.
umm Sorry, but it was YOU that imply that Xfire numbers are not a reliable sample.. therefore the validation falls upon YOU.. Have a great day
You dont need Xfire to know a lot of people have left STO. I was in a guild that had a STO division and that part of our forum is now locked, closed and no one plays it anymore out of what started as 15 people. Even Fallen Earth which is also now defunct lasted at least a few months. Overall, its really really sad for a game that was 6 weeks old at the time we locked up the division.
Exactly my point. I can't help but laugh at people who are so obsessed with sub numbers and some how have this notion made up in their mind that 1+ million subs is the only true path to success.
Of course not. But the fact that they announced their subs as "over 100k" is somewhat odd considering they were crowing about a 1 million accounts registered just a couple of weeks before.
Crowing? it was more like a press release or sharing of info like any other gaming company does. But this topic is not about that. The intent of OP is to show that somehow XFIRE is a reliable tool which can be used to determine whther a MMO is a success or a failure.
Well your response did nothing to prove it either way so what was your point?
Why do i need to prove anything? i am not the one who made this topic and used XFIRE to show if a certain game is failing or not. Considering that only a fraction of MMO players use XFIRE, i guess its OP who needs to prove his point not me.
XFIRE is a sample of who and what game people are playing. Much like a political poll can give you a good idea of who is going to win an election. XFIRE gives you an idea of what gamers are playing and not playing. Yes it is a fraction but if that fraction is even 15% thats enough to gage interest.
I'm thinking that XFire is more like 1-1.5% of players for any given game. But that's still pretty good for a statistical sample size, you can be 95% certain of the accuracy of any sample with just that size being polled.
I'm thinking that XFire is more like 1-1.5% of players for any given game. But that's still pretty good for a statistical sample size, you can be 95% certain of the accuracy of any sample with just that size being polled.
Nah, it entirely depends on the game. A game like LotRO definitely doesn't have the same representation as one like WoW or Age of Conan. Different type of people (crossfire has a bigger % of people that like PvP for obvious reasons, so games in which PvP is not encouraged shouldn't have too many people showing there)
Exactly my point. I can't help but laugh at people who are so obsessed with sub numbers and some how have this notion made up in their mind that 1+ million subs is the only true path to success.
Of course not. But the fact that they announced their subs as "over 100k" is somewhat odd considering they were crowing about a 1 million accounts registered just a couple of weeks before.
Crowing? it was more like a press release or sharing of info like any other gaming company does. But this topic is not about that. The intent of OP is to show that somehow XFIRE is a reliable tool which can be used to determine whther a MMO is a success or a failure.
I, as many others do, use Xfire as a trend assessment tool which like many of the professional poll companies takes a random sample to predict the outcome of an event. In this case whether STO has the staying power and quality that some on these forums claim, and as a Star Trek and MMO fan, like many others here, I am expressing my dissapointment that a rich and varied IP could be made into such a lame and shallow game. Yes, there is a little bit of troll to this thread I admit becuase I'd like to see the IP given justice and for this game to die and go away so a proper Star Tek MMO could be made.
Xfire #198, is there another bug or patch? or is it the start of the 2nd month of subs, which today is?
Cal.
This doom and gloom thread was brought to you by Chin Up the new ultra high caffeine soft drink for gamers who just need that boost of happiness after a long forum session.
the new billing cycle was either yesterday or today I think. looking at the forums, it appears xfire isn't detecting again. It looks like a fair number of monthlies are cancelling over the whole council shenanigan. It would have been easy for cryptic to avoid the whole thing if they would have posted their intentions before hand. Instead, they threw the council announce on the front page and turned out the lights for the weekend, hoping the storm would blow over by monday. On the bright side, it appears lifetime subs are coming of out the woodwork. At this point, with all the negative publicity cryptic has gotten, I don't know why anyone would give them $300 at this point. I guess a lot of them are probably die hard trek fans who think a bad star trek mmo is better than none and that if sto goes under, they won't see another star trek mmo for a long time if ever.
I guess Cryptic effed up the .exe file again with Xfire. It dropped from 70 to 198 in one day. Even 70 is pretty poor for a 2 month old MMO with such a big IP behind it. I wonder if it will be under 100th place on its' own merit over the coming week when the monthly peeps 2nd month runs out.
And as a secondary indicator this game is dying, this STO forum has completely died off as well.
Seems like the vast majority of posters over there were LTS a couple days ago. At this rate, they can't blame the monthlies for making the forums a horrible place to post.
You dont need Xfire to know a lot of people have left STO. I was in a guild that had a STO division and that part of our forum is now locked, closed and no one plays it anymore out of what started as 15 people. Even Fallen Earth which is also now defunct lasted at least a few months. Overall, its really really sad for a game that was 6 weeks old at the time we locked up the division.
I've thought this more than anything else. STO will continue, but will be no more remarkable in it' sustainment than an indie-studio mmorpg. At least with an indie-studio mmorpg, having an active niche audience is considered sucessful, and one that many can grow upon, but would probably liken a niche outcome from a mature studio like Cryptic to a flop.
Striving for Silver Stars since Gold is so effeminate.
the new billing cycle was either yesterday or today I think. looking at the forums, it appears xfire isn't detecting again. ...
Okay, was just looking at XFire again... is it a bug (again)?
The latest rapid drop seems to coincide with the end of the second billing cycle... I expected a drop but wasn't expecting the game to 'flat line' (as I am seeing) until the end of month 3?
Last time, there was no doubt it was a problem with Xfire detecting it, as it dropped to like 700. This time it bottomed out at 250ish and has "climbed" to 210 from 229 the day before. Still seems fishy to go from 70 to 210 in such a short time. I guess it's possible that a huge chunk of monthlies let their subs expire after the 2nd month when the "big" 45 day patch turned out to be nothing, and half the future updates the next couple months being C-store additions...
Edit: this thread on the official forums talks about a huge drop in steam users playing STO also. I guess where there's smoke, there's fire.
Last time, there was no doubt it was a problem with Xfire detecting it, as it dropped to like 700. This time it bottomed out at 250ish and has "climbed" to 210 from 229 the day before. Still seems fishy to go from 70 to 210 in such a short time. I guess it's possible that a huge chunk of monthlies let their subs expire after the 2nd month when the "big" 45 day patch turned out to be nothing, and half the future updates the next couple months being C-store additions...
Edit: this thread on the official forums talks about a huge drop in steam users playing STO also. I guess where there's smoke, there's fire.
Last time, there was no doubt it was a problem with Xfire detecting it, as it dropped to like 700. This time it bottomed out at 250ish and has "climbed" to 210 from 229 the day before. Still seems fishy to go from 70 to 210 in such a short time. I guess it's possible that a huge chunk of monthlies let their subs expire after the 2nd month when the "big" 45 day patch turned out to be nothing, and half the future updates the next couple months being C-store additions...
Edit: this thread on the official forums talks about a huge drop in steam users playing STO also. I guess where there's smoke, there's fire.
Someone should go into that thread and post the XFire stats, I want to see the CDF people's heads explode.
2 people just did. Should be an interesting flame fest now. .....grabs popcorn and a six pack for afternoon fun
I must say, those 'Blue names' really stand out don't they?
It gives you a whole new perspective on where people are coming from on this.
Actually detracts from their credibility.
"I blew $300 bucks on STO and all I got was this lousy blue name on the forum."
I would bet Cryptic might even disable it as a feature based on what I am seeing in that thread... It doesn't look good to see that the most avid defenders are the 'lifers' who can't get out even if they wanted to.
My guess is this is actual numbers and not a bug. STO went from 30th place the first few weeks to about 90th after 1 month. Ignoring the bug that happened inbetween it still had ok subs after the free month and Im sure many people still wanted to give it a chance. Now its 2 months old would it really be a surprise to see the numbers fall that much? I dont think so, the game is crap
Comments
lol yeah... registering an account is nothing though... but even doing a complex equation involving the marketing spin and the possible real numbers.
It's still not encouraging for Cryptic... although i'm surprised it has 100,000. My estimate was 50,000.
time will tell, time will tell - einstein (red alert), queue some awesome music...
Ah the Hell March!
Alltern8 Blog | Star Wars Space Combat and The Old Republic | Cryptic Studios - A Pre Post-Mortem | Klingon Preview, STO's Monster Play
@ incgamers.com: AoC and WAR have a rumored 300k each? LOL I bet they don't have that combined. AoC probably hasn't had 300k since like Sept 08 and WAR since Jan 2009, which is the last time they announced their sub numbers AFAIK.
I'm sure STO will be under 100k by the end of next week when the subs of monthly players who stuck around hoping Season 1/magic 45 day patch would add a ton of content mostly expire.
Exactly my point. I can't help but laugh at people who are so obsessed with sub numbers and some how have this notion made up in their mind that 1+ million subs is the only true path to success.
lal
IMO.. I think the total lack of numbers bragging by Cryptic says it all.. Obviously they aren't proud of their game or they would be bosting numbers of box sales and subs....... right?
Of course not. But the fact that they announced their subs as "over 100k" is somewhat odd considering they were crowing about a 1 million accounts registered just a couple of weeks before. if it has over 100k subs, they've met their goals they've set. Why push Lifetime subs yet again? Say they have 150k subs and 2/3 of those are monthly. That's 1.5 million a month but probably more since I doubt they have 50k lifetime subs. If they're pulling in that kind of money a month, why promote a sub plan that provides no additional sub money in the future. Sure some of those people will buy stuff from the c store but I doubt many will spend $15 monthly there.
Crowing? it was more like a press release or sharing of info like any other gaming company does. But this topic is not about that. The intent of OP is to show that somehow XFIRE is a reliable tool which can be used to determine whther a MMO is a success or a failure.
Well your response did nothing to prove it either way so what was your point?
Why do i need to prove anything? i am not the one who made this topic and used XFIRE to show if a certain game is failing or not. Considering that only a fraction of MMO players use XFIRE, i guess its OP who needs to prove his point not me.
umm Sorry, but it was YOU that imply that Xfire numbers are not a reliable sample.. therefore the validation falls upon YOU.. Have a great day
You dont need Xfire to know a lot of people have left STO. I was in a guild that had a STO division and that part of our forum is now locked, closed and no one plays it anymore out of what started as 15 people. Even Fallen Earth which is also now defunct lasted at least a few months. Overall, its really really sad for a game that was 6 weeks old at the time we locked up the division.
I'm thinking that XFire is more like 1-1.5% of players for any given game. But that's still pretty good for a statistical sample size, you can be 95% certain of the accuracy of any sample with just that size being polled.
Nah, it entirely depends on the game. A game like LotRO definitely doesn't have the same representation as one like WoW or Age of Conan. Different type of people (crossfire has a bigger % of people that like PvP for obvious reasons, so games in which PvP is not encouraged shouldn't have too many people showing there)
I, as many others do, use Xfire as a trend assessment tool which like many of the professional poll companies takes a random sample to predict the outcome of an event. In this case whether STO has the staying power and quality that some on these forums claim, and as a Star Trek and MMO fan, like many others here, I am expressing my dissapointment that a rich and varied IP could be made into such a lame and shallow game. Yes, there is a little bit of troll to this thread I admit becuase I'd like to see the IP given justice and for this game to die and go away so a proper Star Tek MMO could be made.
Xfire #198, is there another bug or patch? or is it the start of the 2nd month of subs, which today is?
Cal.
This doom and gloom thread was brought to you by Chin Up the new ultra high caffeine soft drink for gamers who just need that boost of happiness after a long forum session.
the new billing cycle was either yesterday or today I think. looking at the forums, it appears xfire isn't detecting again. It looks like a fair number of monthlies are cancelling over the whole council shenanigan. It would have been easy for cryptic to avoid the whole thing if they would have posted their intentions before hand. Instead, they threw the council announce on the front page and turned out the lights for the weekend, hoping the storm would blow over by monday. On the bright side, it appears lifetime subs are coming of out the woodwork. At this point, with all the negative publicity cryptic has gotten, I don't know why anyone would give them $300 at this point. I guess a lot of them are probably die hard trek fans who think a bad star trek mmo is better than none and that if sto goes under, they won't see another star trek mmo for a long time if ever.
I guess Cryptic effed up the .exe file again with Xfire. It dropped from 70 to 198 in one day. Even 70 is pretty poor for a 2 month old MMO with such a big IP behind it. I wonder if it will be under 100th place on its' own merit over the coming week when the monthly peeps 2nd month runs out.
228th now
And as a secondary indicator this game is dying, this STO forum has completely died off as well.
Seems like the vast majority of posters over there were LTS a couple days ago. At this rate, they can't blame the monthlies for making the forums a horrible place to post.
I've thought this more than anything else. STO will continue, but will be no more remarkable in it' sustainment than an indie-studio mmorpg. At least with an indie-studio mmorpg, having an active niche audience is considered sucessful, and one that many can grow upon, but would probably liken a niche outcome from a mature studio like Cryptic to a flop.
Striving for Silver Stars since Gold is so effeminate.
Okay, was just looking at XFire again... is it a bug (again)?
The latest rapid drop seems to coincide with the end of the second billing cycle... I expected a drop but wasn't expecting the game to 'flat line' (as I am seeing) until the end of month 3?
Nothing says irony like spelling ideot wrong.
Definitely strange.
Last time, there was no doubt it was a problem with Xfire detecting it, as it dropped to like 700. This time it bottomed out at 250ish and has "climbed" to 210 from 229 the day before. Still seems fishy to go from 70 to 210 in such a short time. I guess it's possible that a huge chunk of monthlies let their subs expire after the 2nd month when the "big" 45 day patch turned out to be nothing, and half the future updates the next couple months being C-store additions...
Edit: this thread on the official forums talks about a huge drop in steam users playing STO also. I guess where there's smoke, there's fire.
http://forums.startrekonline.com/showthread.php?t=149651
Someone should go into that thread and post the XFire stats, I want to see the CDF people's heads explode.
2 people just did. Should be an interesting flame fest now. .....grabs popcorn and a six pack for afternoon fun
I must say, those 'Blue names' really stand out don't they?
It gives you a whole new perspective on where people are coming from on this.
Actually detracts from their credibility.
"I blew $300 bucks on STO and all I got was this lousy blue name on the forum."
I would bet Cryptic might even disable it as a feature based on what I am seeing in that thread... It doesn't look good to see that the most avid defenders are the 'lifers' who can't get out even if they wanted to.
Nothing says irony like spelling ideot wrong.
My guess is this is actual numbers and not a bug. STO went from 30th place the first few weeks to about 90th after 1 month. Ignoring the bug that happened inbetween it still had ok subs after the free month and Im sure many people still wanted to give it a chance. Now its 2 months old would it really be a surprise to see the numbers fall that much? I dont think so, the game is crap