Really not sure where you got the idea Rift was a top three game. I expect it to pull Vanguard type numbers and rise to settle around the 50K range. No way a studio out of the gates, no IP, no existing base pulls out a 1 million+ MMO on their first go. Could go higher, but it'll go the way of EVE where it grows slowly while retaining.
As long as they can fill a server, I see no reason not to enjoy the ride even if it does get cut short... APB
I admit also that until a few days ago I had not heard of RIFT. It goes without saying that without exposure for your product you will not launch with massive number sales. The video game market is vast enough for new blood and is certainly still young enough that as it continues to expand there will be room for these new titles (and their game houses) for decades to come, but staying power is another matter.
For staying power a game requires a solid foundation of loyal players somewhere in the range of 150k to 250k subscribers which means that even when the chips are down and the ebb and flow of players is evident there remains a constant of membership that can keep enough revenue coming in to support advancing the game.
Creative marketing is a vital tool that can not be ignored. This is not exclusively focused on advertising, in fact even WoW does not advertise very often although we have all seen (Wild Bill) Shatner and Mr. T strut their stuff to sell the game. What will be needed in this current market and economy is an initial free-to-play period right out of the gate. For RIFT specifically, I would advise an unlimited play period but the character would be limited to only one soul. (WISHLIST ALERT) They may also consider an aggressive subscription fee program that offers players 2 or 3 different subscription amounts with the higher comparable fees yielding in-game items on a weekly basis for their characters.
Balance behind the scenes inside the dev studio where the execs advance the game as the player base calls for it. Rather than spend time and funds developing things that may out pace the game's lifespan they focus exclusively on balancing what they have built and connect quickly additional content to the most immediate aspects of the game where players note a lack or weakness there of.
I did not bother mentioning the importance of gameplay mechanics, content and the like in this post because it really goes without saying how vital they are. None of the above would matter without these essential elements.
I'm looking forward to playing soon 2011 is not far and maybe the powers-that-be will throw me a beta invite.
most people i play with haven't heard of guildwars 2, and look how that's doing. i wouldn't worry about it to much. if it's good it'll gain a higher player base over time.
The thing is, "if its good" seems to rely on how the game plays after release. However, unless it releases well before anything else what happens when players are already deep into their MMO of choice, driven there by the marketing before hand? What players will it gain if it stands on equal "good" status with other titles? Every advantage should be utilized in getting the player base Trion wants, and it...isn't, for lack of a better way to explain.
At the moment, it sounds as if you are expecting word of mouth about RIFT's release to magically conjure players who aren't already committed to anything else. We are all aware this will not release in empty space devoid of competition.
So your saying it looks a little better than WoW? I think they are doing ok.
I have reservations about every game, but I have more about GW2 (could weighted lower, due to it being b2p), and a ton more about swtor (as it pertains to my play style, I am sure it will be great, just not sure great for who).
Come on guy, you make a screen name, and just post negatively about one game, got an agenda?
The IP is not "unknown", the IP is brand new. Which oddly enough is exacly what the GW IP was when it launched. And the Everquest IP and the DAoC IP and the EVE IP.
Are you saying that a game must be a sequel or based on an existing IP to succeed? Because this isn't the case. There have been as many successes as failures when it comes to IPs. EQ2 had the best MMORPG IP on the market and was totally blown out of the water by WoW which was based on a mediocre IP with no RPG implications. D&D, Star Wars and Star Trek are some of the best IPs on the market and weren't as successful as some original IPs. Of course plenty of original IPs have failed also. Just saying, having your own IP isn't a good thing or a bad thing.
"Id rather work on something with great potential than on fulfilling a promise of mediocrity."
- Raph Koster
Tried: AO,EQ,EQ2,DAoC,SWG,AA,SB,HZ,CoX,PS,GA,TR,IV,GnH,EVE, PP,DnL,WAR,MxO,SWG,FE,VG,AoC,DDO,LoTRO,Rift,TOR,Aion,Tera,TSW,GW2,DCUO,CO,STO Favourites: AO,SWG,EVE,TR,LoTRO,TSW,EQ2, Firefall Currently Playing: ESO
Unless Guild Wars 2 is complete & utter shit, it's going to be successful. It has no subscription fee, and if they deliver on even half of what they promise the game will be fun for a long time.
ToR is...ToR and that's going to be a more traditional "Let's see how it maintains itself" launch. Sub fee, major hype for years...That's something we've seen all too often. The only thing is it's BioWare, and they are going all out and risking a lot on this game, which is a good indication that unless they rush it's release it should be a good game.
Rift is kind of the underdog in a lot of ways, it's going to be a little more traditional than GW2 and ToR while providing a plethora of smaller innovations of it's own. It's going to need to be engaging as well as have that stay factor in order to maintain itself. I could see it pulling in 500,000-1million players IF it is truly a fun game and does not feel too closely to what we've been playing for the last 7 years.
Rift is kind of the underdog in a lot of ways, it's going to be a little more traditional than GW2 and ToR while providing a plethora of smaller innovations of it's own. It's going to need to be engaging as well as have that stay factor in order to maintain itself. I could see it pulling in 500,000-1million players IF it is truly a fun game and does not feel too closely to what we've been playing for the last 7 years.
I'm thinking more in the 200k range. Decent box sales, 200k subs, will be a good story.
As far as GW2, it's one of those things that just sounds too good to be true. It's promising to deliver a full-scale, modern MMORPG, only absolutely free to play. If it delivers that, it'll obviously be a smash. But the skeptic in me thinks that if a full-scale MMORPG could be built and run for free, someone woulda tried it by now. I'm thinking corners have had to be cut somewhere. But who knows... will wait and see.
"Id rather work on something with great potential than on fulfilling a promise of mediocrity."
- Raph Koster
Tried: AO,EQ,EQ2,DAoC,SWG,AA,SB,HZ,CoX,PS,GA,TR,IV,GnH,EVE, PP,DnL,WAR,MxO,SWG,FE,VG,AoC,DDO,LoTRO,Rift,TOR,Aion,Tera,TSW,GW2,DCUO,CO,STO Favourites: AO,SWG,EVE,TR,LoTRO,TSW,EQ2, Firefall Currently Playing: ESO
Rift is kind of the underdog in a lot of ways, it's going to be a little more traditional than GW2 and ToR while providing a plethora of smaller innovations of it's own. It's going to need to be engaging as well as have that stay factor in order to maintain itself. I could see it pulling in 500,000-1million players IF it is truly a fun game and does not feel too closely to what we've been playing for the last 7 years.
I'm thinking more in the 200k range. Decent box sales, 200k subs, will be a good story.
As far as GW2, it's one of those things that just sounds too good to be true. It's promising to deliver a full-scale, modern MMORPG, only absolutely free to play. If it delivers that, it'll obviously be a smash. But the skeptic in me thinks that if a full-scale MMORPG could be built and run for free, someone woulda tried it by now. I'm thinking corners have had to be cut somewhere. But who knows... will wait and see.
It makes me less sceptic to realize that all additional content after release will have to be bought, and they do make box sales initially. So not "completely" free to play, just what seems to be a relatively cheaper payment model. We'll see how it turns out. Never underestimate greed and laziness and all that jazz...
I would suspect Rift has less marketing money and therefore is waiting until it gets closer to release to hype it. I think GW2 may be jumping the gun a little. While it's true the hype is working, and I want to play it NOW, release appears to be a ways off. How long can this level of hype be maintained?
I say this is a good idea. What other developer has waited until release of their MMORPG game to start the hype train up?
Comments
You take bets?
Currently playing: EverQuest
Waiting for Pantheon: Rise of the Fallen
I admit also that until a few days ago I had not heard of RIFT. It goes without saying that without exposure for your product you will not launch with massive number sales. The video game market is vast enough for new blood and is certainly still young enough that as it continues to expand there will be room for these new titles (and their game houses) for decades to come, but staying power is another matter.
For staying power a game requires a solid foundation of loyal players somewhere in the range of 150k to 250k subscribers which means that even when the chips are down and the ebb and flow of players is evident there remains a constant of membership that can keep enough revenue coming in to support advancing the game.
Creative marketing is a vital tool that can not be ignored. This is not exclusively focused on advertising, in fact even WoW does not advertise very often although we have all seen (Wild Bill) Shatner and Mr. T strut their stuff to sell the game. What will be needed in this current market and economy is an initial free-to-play period right out of the gate. For RIFT specifically, I would advise an unlimited play period but the character would be limited to only one soul. (WISHLIST ALERT) They may also consider an aggressive subscription fee program that offers players 2 or 3 different subscription amounts with the higher comparable fees yielding in-game items on a weekly basis for their characters.
Balance behind the scenes inside the dev studio where the execs advance the game as the player base calls for it. Rather than spend time and funds developing things that may out pace the game's lifespan they focus exclusively on balancing what they have built and connect quickly additional content to the most immediate aspects of the game where players note a lack or weakness there of.
I did not bother mentioning the importance of gameplay mechanics, content and the like in this post because it really goes without saying how vital they are. None of the above would matter without these essential elements.
I'm looking forward to playing soon 2011 is not far and maybe the powers-that-be will throw me a beta invite.
Hoping to see you guys in there!!
most people i play with haven't heard of guildwars 2, and look how that's doing. i wouldn't worry about it to much. if it's good it'll gain a higher player base over time.
The thing is, "if its good" seems to rely on how the game plays after release. However, unless it releases well before anything else what happens when players are already deep into their MMO of choice, driven there by the marketing before hand? What players will it gain if it stands on equal "good" status with other titles? Every advantage should be utilized in getting the player base Trion wants, and it...isn't, for lack of a better way to explain.
At the moment, it sounds as if you are expecting word of mouth about RIFT's release to magically conjure players who aren't already committed to anything else. We are all aware this will not release in empty space devoid of competition.
Rift has a feeling of mediocrity surrounding it.
It's not much better looking than WoW, it hovers between those really good looking MMO and WoW in terms of graphics.
The IP is totally unknown.
The fanbase is very small.
They're up against major IP like GW2 and SWTOR.
It's not promoted anywhere outside of the US 'o A.
If I had a $, I wouldn't put it on Rift right now.
Collector's editions are scams.
So your saying it looks a little better than WoW? I think they are doing ok.
I have reservations about every game, but I have more about GW2 (could weighted lower, due to it being b2p), and a ton more about swtor (as it pertains to my play style, I am sure it will be great, just not sure great for who).
Come on guy, you make a screen name, and just post negatively about one game, got an agenda?
The IP is not "unknown", the IP is brand new. Which oddly enough is exacly what the GW IP was when it launched. And the Everquest IP and the DAoC IP and the EVE IP.
Are you saying that a game must be a sequel or based on an existing IP to succeed? Because this isn't the case. There have been as many successes as failures when it comes to IPs. EQ2 had the best MMORPG IP on the market and was totally blown out of the water by WoW which was based on a mediocre IP with no RPG implications. D&D, Star Wars and Star Trek are some of the best IPs on the market and weren't as successful as some original IPs. Of course plenty of original IPs have failed also. Just saying, having your own IP isn't a good thing or a bad thing.
"Id rather work on something with great potential than on fulfilling a promise of mediocrity."
- Raph Koster
Tried: AO,EQ,EQ2,DAoC,SWG,AA,SB,HZ,CoX,PS,GA,TR,IV,GnH,EVE, PP,DnL,WAR,MxO,SWG,FE,VG,AoC,DDO,LoTRO,Rift,TOR,Aion,Tera,TSW,GW2,DCUO,CO,STO
Favourites: AO,SWG,EVE,TR,LoTRO,TSW,EQ2, Firefall
Currently Playing: ESO
Unless Guild Wars 2 is complete & utter shit, it's going to be successful. It has no subscription fee, and if they deliver on even half of what they promise the game will be fun for a long time.
ToR is...ToR and that's going to be a more traditional "Let's see how it maintains itself" launch. Sub fee, major hype for years...That's something we've seen all too often. The only thing is it's BioWare, and they are going all out and risking a lot on this game, which is a good indication that unless they rush it's release it should be a good game.
Rift is kind of the underdog in a lot of ways, it's going to be a little more traditional than GW2 and ToR while providing a plethora of smaller innovations of it's own. It's going to need to be engaging as well as have that stay factor in order to maintain itself. I could see it pulling in 500,000-1million players IF it is truly a fun game and does not feel too closely to what we've been playing for the last 7 years.
I'm thinking more in the 200k range. Decent box sales, 200k subs, will be a good story.
As far as GW2, it's one of those things that just sounds too good to be true. It's promising to deliver a full-scale, modern MMORPG, only absolutely free to play. If it delivers that, it'll obviously be a smash. But the skeptic in me thinks that if a full-scale MMORPG could be built and run for free, someone woulda tried it by now. I'm thinking corners have had to be cut somewhere. But who knows... will wait and see.
"Id rather work on something with great potential than on fulfilling a promise of mediocrity."
- Raph Koster
Tried: AO,EQ,EQ2,DAoC,SWG,AA,SB,HZ,CoX,PS,GA,TR,IV,GnH,EVE, PP,DnL,WAR,MxO,SWG,FE,VG,AoC,DDO,LoTRO,Rift,TOR,Aion,Tera,TSW,GW2,DCUO,CO,STO
Favourites: AO,SWG,EVE,TR,LoTRO,TSW,EQ2, Firefall
Currently Playing: ESO
It makes me less sceptic to realize that all additional content after release will have to be bought, and they do make box sales initially. So not "completely" free to play, just what seems to be a relatively cheaper payment model. We'll see how it turns out. Never underestimate greed and laziness and all that jazz...
I say this is a good idea. What other developer has waited until release of their MMORPG game to start the hype train up?
Hey didnt Guild Wars doe the same thing in 2005?