Great post OP, I think you make several valid points and I can see them all being a decent picture of the way things shake out.
But one thing you've driven home several times is that WOW/Blizzard created their own captive market, and now you feel SWTOR/Bioware will do the same for their marketshare, therefore dooming the MMORPG genre.
Perhaps we need to redefine what an MMORPG is going forward, they may have changed to reflect the empires being built by these mega corps and perhaps in the future we really will have only 3-5 major players out there.
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
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Anyway, I really don't care about western MMOs at all, I think Swtor, Rift and GW2 are going to suck big time but I respect your opinion. The only western game I look forward to is WoDO (also blizzard's MMO but its just too far away), anything else is typical run of the mill from a big company or a buggy sandbox from an indie as of now.
Great post OP, I think you make several valid points and I can see them all being a decent picture of the way things shake out.
But one thing you've driven home several times is that WOW/Blizzard created their own captive market, and now you feel SWTOR/Bioware will do the same for their marketshare, therefore dooming the MMORPG genre.
Perhaps we need to redefine what an MMORPG is going forward, they may have changed to reflect the empires being built by these mega corps and perhaps in the future we really will have only 3-5 major players out there.
While dooming the genre may have been harsh of me I just don't think WoW/SWTOR bring a new audience in. They very specifically cater to non-mmorpg gamers, people who, up until their existence would not touch an mmo.
Now some of these people might have their "MINDS OPENED" but the majority will just see WoW/SWTOR as an anomoly and will still shun the rest of the MMORPGs out there.
Again, this is how I have seen the WoW phenomenon play out and how I see BioWare playing it for SWTOR. Woow is a good game and SWTOR will probably be one but niether is good for the MMORPG industry.
But then someone could argue that bringing full voice acting can revolutionize MMORPGs. In reality its going to be awesome for those of us who LOVE that type of game, myself included, but it is not feesable for other games to do this as the costs are way to high.
People will fall in love with swtor like they fell in love with wow and when they play other games, who don't have the budget, they will feel like they are playing an inferior product and thus go back to WoW/SWTOR.
GW2 will be the exception though, as it is a b2p game and doesn't really fall into the subscription wars.
But then someone could argue that bringing full voice acting can revolutionize MMORPGs.
Didn't Earth and Beyond Online have full voice acting?
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein "Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
But then someone could argue that bringing full voice acting can revolutionize MMORPGs.
Didn't Earth and Beyond Online have full voice acting?
I have no clue but even if it did it wasn't on the scale of SWTOR (wish I had gotten to play that game as I keep hearing good things).
One thing we can look at is Age of Conan. People LOVED (for the most part) levels 1-20. They were very linear, fully voiced and story based.
But after you leave tortage the game became an old schoolish RPG without voice acting, more open gameplay and more less linear.
This is were AoC lost its subscribers (well that and there was not enough content). It was a bait and switch basically. They sold you on tortage and then gave you 20-80 and said, well here is the rest.
Problem is people liked the voice acting and more focused gameplay of tortage and didnt like the rest.
Star Wars: The Old Republic will be like tortage but from level 1 to cap. Now, somebody who plays the crap out of SWTOR decides to try out the next big MMO that didnt have the budget of SWTOR and is turned off immediatly because its like a step back in time to what many people disliked about MMORPGs and kept them away.
Thats sort of what I mean by not bringing anything to the genre and it possibly being bad. Just like how WoW casualized everything so that people didnt want to play more complex mmorpgs.
Anyway, I really don't care about western MMOs at all, I think Swtor, Rift and GW2 are going to suck big time but I respect your opinion. The only western game I look forward to is WoDO (also blizzard's MMO but its just too far away), anything else is typical run of the mill from a big company or a buggy sandbox from an indie as of now.
LoL, they could all be horrible horrible games indeed! I realize I sorta slighted you in that I ignored or shoved the games you like to the side. Indie players are players too but then so are WoW players. We all have opinions and likes/dislikes. Hopefully I cleared up my position though.
Interesting post, some good points that I can certainly agree with. Blizzard definitely raised the bar, it made it so people were totally expecting all games released after WoW to be of WoW-quality. If SWTOR does the same, it'd definitely hurt the genre somewhat. Although people who enjoy these games will think of them as the best things ever. Will be interesting to see how this whole plays out.
A lot of what you have written is spot on and has already been happening for a couple years now. The NA market just seems very sloooow at realizing changes.
Several publishers and developers have not only publicly stated their interest in the shifts you've mentioned (casual online gaming and action MMOs) but many have come out with them already. Mabinogi Heros (aka Vindictus) and Dragonica (aka Dragon Saga) are two examples of successful early entries to the action MMO category. As for the casual online gaming, endeavours like http://play4free.com are sites that MMO gamers should take pay attention to because if they do well there is little reason for publishers to invest in big budget, high-risk MMOs.
League of Legends, Bloodline Champions and the upcoming DOTA 2 from Valve are steps in the direction of bite-sized massively multiplayer content - FPS/RTS with progression seems to be gameplay that many MMO gamers are gravitating toward as they expand on gaming that they have enjoyed for years already usually in single-player or limited multiplayer form.
You make some great points there. All of those games you mention are the pioneers for the future of MMO games. They all have fast paced, and I hate to say this but, mindless game play that even "slow" people can really get into. Complex mechanics like MMORPGs have are cut down to the bare bones (think runes and masteries in League of Legends) and made as simple as possible.
The future is more about immersion and gameplay and less about the things that makes MMORPGs click. The money is with the masses and the masses love Assassin's Creed, Call of Duty, Mass Effect 2, etc.
Before I rip that statement to shreds let me congradulate you on the original post. Not only did I completely agree with everything you said, but you wrote that completely masturbatory wall of text in an entertaining way that compelled me to read past the first two sentences. Kudos to you Sir (or Ma'am)!!!
But I have to take issue with the masses loving Ass Crud. I don't think I've run into one person in real life that actually liked the first game. Even the people that were trying to get me to play Ass Crud 2 admitted that the first game was a complete abomination. I'm of the philosophy that a shitty game deserves no sequels, so I haven't played any the sequels to this steaming pile of fail and scenery porn. The masses spoke out, and they were silenced by the great advertising giant we call games journalism.
I'd also have to object to the Call of Duty thing. After the lukewarm reaction among gamers over Black Ops, I think the party is pretty much over. There are only so many macho insecure teenage/twenty-something boys in the Ameican and European market. Even that demographic is getting tired of action movies cliches told in depressing shades of dogshit brown and concrete grey.
I actually think we're on the edge of a full-scale old school revival. 2.5D platformers have been cropping up everywhere and even some exclusively Japanese Shmups have been sold retail on all platforms here in the states. Shorter, faster, more difficult games are on the horizon. There will still be deep games for those with self diagnosed Asperger's Syndrome, but I think the future is going to look a lot like the past. Well... more like an eighties arcade was thrown into a phong shaded blender and splattered all over the web...
Interesting post, some good points that I can certainly agree with. Blizzard definitely raised the bar, it made it so people were totally expecting all games released after WoW to be of WoW-quality. If SWTOR does the same, it'd definitely hurt the genre somewhat. Although people who enjoy these games will think of them as the best things ever. Will be interesting to see how this whole plays out.
The launch of SWTOR is going to be very interesting. I can see SWTOR having the same hate as WoW among the general MMORPG public. Many people will spell doom and gloom and then when it sells a rediculous amount and reatains/grows people will shake their head in amazement.
There is a reason why they have taken things from WoW. Its not because SWTOR is a WoW clone (beyond global cooldowns the devs haven't really shown anything that indicates its a WoW clone), its because BioWare is actually cloning Blizzard's way of creating an MMORPG population out of nothing. I am actually sort of amazed more people don't see this (maybe I am just crazy?)
A lot of what you have written is spot on and has already been happening for a couple years now. The NA market just seems very sloooow at realizing changes.
Several publishers and developers have not only publicly stated their interest in the shifts you've mentioned (casual online gaming and action MMOs) but many have come out with them already. Mabinogi Heros (aka Vindictus) and Dragonica (aka Dragon Saga) are two examples of successful early entries to the action MMO category. As for the casual online gaming, endeavours like http://play4free.com are sites that MMO gamers should take pay attention to because if they do well there is little reason for publishers to invest in big budget, high-risk MMOs.
League of Legends, Bloodline Champions and the upcoming DOTA 2 from Valve are steps in the direction of bite-sized massively multiplayer content - FPS/RTS with progression seems to be gameplay that many MMO gamers are gravitating toward as they expand on gaming that they have enjoyed for years already usually in single-player or limited multiplayer form.
You make some great points there. All of those games you mention are the pioneers for the future of MMO games. They all have fast paced, and I hate to say this but, mindless game play that even "slow" people can really get into. Complex mechanics like MMORPGs have are cut down to the bare bones (think runes and masteries in League of Legends) and made as simple as possible.
The future is more about immersion and gameplay and less about the things that makes MMORPGs click. The money is with the masses and the masses love Assassin's Creed, Call of Duty, Mass Effect 2, etc.
Before I rip that statement to shreds let me congradulate you on the original post. Not only did I completely agree with everything you said, but you wrote that completely masturbatory wall of text in an entertaining way that compelled me to read past the first two sentences. Kudos to you Sir (or Ma'am)!!!
But I have to take issue with the masses loving Ass Crud. I don't think I've run into one person in real life that actually liked the first game. Even the people that were trying to get me to play Ass Crud 2 admitted that the first game was a complete abomination. I'm of the philosophy that a shitty game deserves no sequels, so I haven't played any the sequels to this steaming pile of fail and scenery porn. The masses spoke out, and they were silenced by the great advertising giant we call games journalism.
I'd also have to object to the Call of Duty thing. After the lukewarm reaction among gamers over Black Ops, I think the party is pretty much over. There are only so many macho insecure teenage/twenty-something boys in the Ameican and European market. Even that demographic is getting tired of action movies cliches told in depressing shades of dogshit brown and concrete grey.
I actually think we're on the edge of a full-scale old school revival. 2.5D platformers have been cropping up everywhere and even some exclusively Japanese Shmups have been sold retail on all platforms here in the states. Shorter, faster, more difficult games are on the horizon. There will still be deep games for those with self diagnosed Asperger's Syndrome, but I think the future is going to look a lot like the past. Well... more like an eighties arcade was thrown into a phong shaded blender and splattered all over the web...
I enjoyed the first Assassin's Creed and the second/brotherhood blew me away. Thier sales numbers speak volumes about how recieved the games are.
Call of Duty Black Ops sold rediculiously as well, more than MW2. Dudebros just don't care that much and they will continue to sell well.
I agree old school is coming back in the indy crowd but to think the blockbuster titles are bombing is kind of mind boggling after how well they have sold this year. Hyper critical gamers like you and I may see the faults in some of these games and read the message boards and believe we know the pulse of the industry. But COD20 will still sell 4million copies and leave us shaking our heads.
This is actually incredibly well-written and I agree with nearly everything that was said. It's an unfortunate truth. Most WoW players are not actually gamers/MMORPGer's per say. There is no MMO world to them, there is only WoW. WoW is the game that made it possible for mothers to play a game with their kids, and these are not the kinds of people that will be playing 'the next big game'. When I was playing Playstation 2, my grandmother was still happy with her nintendo and her one game of Doctor Mario.
Before the flames begin, that's not to say WoW is a childish game. There are some who would say that, but it's more accurate to say that as a casual game, it appeals to a more casual audience. This audience is the antithesis of gamers who want something more challenging to dedicate their time to; the kinds of people that struggle to unlock all those achievements/trophies on consoles and want to be the best of the server, or the first to do one thing or the other. They're a smaller audience, just as the OP mentioned, and so that's still what companies have to fight over.
Quick note though, not ALL of WoW's player-base is casual. One of my closest friends plays games as much or more than me, and he plays WoW. We also play Guild Wars together, and will both be migrating over to GW2 when it comes out. He's also jumped from one game to the other just like me, from LOTRO to DDO to Champions, etc. But whenever something new happens in WoW, he goes to try it out. Why? In his words, because it's easy, and he can do nearly everything solo. He teams with his guild members once in a blue moon when he needs raid gear, and otherwise never talks to or does anything with anyone, ever. Mind you after a month, he's bored again and looking for a new game, but it still proves a point that even 'gamers' play WoW.
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I believe that somewhere in time the mmorpg genre will simply stop growing, the people you called mmo players, become so jaded with the launches that they become more and more demanding, never fullfilling what they really want ,dooming every game produced, good or not.
Then the RPG part of MMO will die for some time, but other kind of MMOs will rise, like MMOFPSes/ MMORTses etc...
"It has potential" -Second most used phrase on existence "It sucks" -Most used phrase on existence
This is actually incredibly well-written and I agree with nearly everything that was said. It's an unfortunate truth. Most WoW players are not actually gamers/MMORPGer's per say. There is no MMO world to them, there is only WoW. WoW is the game that made it possible for mothers to play a game with their kids, and these are not the kinds of people that will be playing 'the next big game'. When I was playing Playstation 2, my grandmother was still happy with her nintendo and her one game of Doctor Mario.
Before the flames begin, that's not to say WoW is a childish game. There are some who would say that, but it's more accurate to say that as a casual game, it appeals to a more casual audience. This audience is the antithesis of gamers who want something more challenging to dedicate their time to; the kinds of people that struggle to unlock all those achievements/trophies on consoles and want to be the best of the server, or the first to do one thing or the other. They're a smaller audience, just as the OP mentioned, and so that's still what companies have to fight over.
Quick note though, not ALL of WoW's player-base is casual. One of my closest friends plays games as much or more than me, and he plays WoW. We also play Guild Wars together, and will both be migrating over to GW2 when it comes out. He's also jumped from one game to the other just like me, from LOTRO to DDO to Champions, etc. But whenever something new happens in WoW, he goes to try it out. Why? In his words, because it's easy, and he can do nearly everything solo. He teams with his guild members once in a blue moon when he needs raid gear, and otherwise never talks to or does anything with anyone, ever. Mind you after a month, he's bored again and looking for a new game, but it still proves a point that even 'gamers' play WoW.
First off, my mom, to this day, still pines for Doctor Mario, lol. I got her an xbox 360 with Kinect and the first thing she asked was "Can I play Doctor Mario?". Instead I plugged in fable 2 and got her playing that (women LOVE fable games). All of this was to break her farmtown addiction of coarse :P .
As for the rest of your post I think you point out something important, WoW is a good game. It really is that simple. I will be playing it tonight because my friends are. Does that make me bad? sacreligous? hypocrit? No, it makes me a gamer that wants to play a good game. Do I wish it was way more complex? Yes, of coarse, but if there is a place for Farm Town then there is a place for WoW.
WoW is casual yes, but that doesn't mean that a hardcore gamer cannot find enjoyment in it. It just means that they wont stay long (I expect to spend maybe a month playing CATA before my interests pull me elsewhere). Some may think that the money spent isnt worth it but to me hanging out with my buds is worth every penny.
WoW is casual yes, but that doesn't mean that a hardcore gamer cannot find enjoyment in it. It just means that they wont stay long (I expect to spend maybe a month playing CATA before my interests pull me elsewhere). Some may think that the money spent isnt worth it but to me hanging out with my buds is worth every penny.
There are also plenty of hardcore gamers who have stuck with WoW for years. One of the things WoW does correctly is appeal to a wide variety of gamers. Whether or not you like WoW or not it's hard not to say WoW doesn't with achievements that can be time consuming and/or difficult to get. Hardcore raiding has always been around since WoW's release, and it's actually more challenging (but less time consuming) than raids in past MMOs like EQ that were only meant for the hardcore.
WoW also correctly puts emphasis on end game content first. TBC featured mostly end game content with only two new low level starter zones and a few quests added in random areas of the game. WotLK featured all end game content. Blizzard assumes that even a casual player will eventually reach the end game and they make it so a casual player will. Add optional "Heroic" gear and tokens that can be obtained through more casual play (TBC), nerf bosses after they've been completed by most of the other guilds (since Ragnaros), lower the EXP curve (WotLK), add more quests that give better EXP rewards (TBC), etc. Blizzard understands the wants and needs of their player base, they cater to both the casual and the hardcore.
Most of the hype for the new star wars is about how cool the story is going to be . .. this game is supposed to be an MMORPG and their biggest hype is the fcking story?!?!? Who cares about the story? I mean, its a video game and not a movie. Stories are for console games that you play for a couple days until you are sick of the game. I predict the new star wars keeping people entertained for about as long as a console star wars game would. Not going to say that it will not be successful but I very much doubt your predictions. Your on the right track though and nice post overall, but seriously? The new star wars looks so bad. Going back to SWG looks more appealing FFS. They have a lot of hype so it should make back the money invested into it but keeping people subscribing monthly is probably not going to happen for long unless they are already working on new expansions because once you watch a movie, the story is over pretty much. Even if you think its the best game ever, the main hype is all about the story, so what do you think is going to happen when players have seen all of the mini-movies in the game? Gameplay has to make up for that. So far, there is very little to absolutely no hype about the gameplay. That says something. But these people are making it!!! But the story is going to be sooo cool!!! Yeah I've played all of their games for about 2 days each. I doubt its going to fly as an MMORPG unless they already have an expansion lined up for next season.
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There are also plenty of hardcore gamers who have stuck with WoW for years. One of the things WoW does correctly is appeal to a wide variety of gamers. Whether or not you like WoW or not it's hard not to say WoW doesn't with achievements that can be time consuming and/or difficult to get. Hardcore raiding has always been around since WoW's release, and it's actually more challenging (but less time consuming) than raids in past MMOs like EQ that were only meant for the hardcore.
WoW also correctly puts emphasis on end game content first. TBC featured mostly end game content with only two new low level starter zones and a few quests added in random areas of the game. WotLK featured all end game content. Blizzard assumes that even a casual player will eventually reach the end game and they make it so a casual player will. Add optional "Heroic" gear and tokens that can be obtained through more casual play (TBC), nerf bosses after they've been completed by most of the other guilds (since Ragnaros), lower the EXP curve (WotLK), add more quests that give better EXP rewards (TBC), etc. Blizzard understands the wants and needs of their player base, they cater to both the casual and the hardcore.
True I knw several HC gamers that have played wow for 5+ years. But funny enough do I only know casual players that have started the last 3 or 4 years.
Wow did apply to hardcore gamers once and still have some raiding that does. But I don't think that those gamers are increasing, rather the other way around.
Wow have done a lot of things right but the typical Wow gamer today is very different from the typical player 6 years ago. Not that it might be bad but Wows hardcore appeal is down a lot nowadays but it still have enough to keep the ones still playing it.
Blizzard have spent a lot of time on how to maximize their sub numbers. My feel however is that it is a mistake to aim for the same group Wow is aiming for, while sooner or later they will change game (or most of them at least, no game last forever after all) that might take time and it is better to do like Blizzard and aim for a large group that hasn't any large MMO right now but might start, like fans of games like Oblivion, RTS fans, FPS fans, Roleplayers (which isn't Blizzards main group but many people do enjoy RPG) or something else.
As for how correctly Wow have focused on endgame content, that really is an open question. First of all is not really Wows endgame that varied, you have instanced, raids and battlegrounds but that is more or less it. Better gear is the easiest word to describe it, there is a lot more options you can use in an endgame, for one thing is half the game very open for soloplayers while they have no endgame at all.
Secondly endgame means more or less that your character wont improve, only his gear and reputation. Eve on the other hand have no endgame, you will always become better. I think that is an interesting option as well as gear based endgame. The third option is letting it take a long time to get to the endgame as older games have done with varying results, problem is that you must keep the grind feeling down and the level system isn't great for that.
Games do well by learning by looking on Wow, but not by re usings Wows ideas. Looking on what Wow did right is great, like good programming and a dialog with the players/Blizz fans are ideas that work straight off but a game using too many things that Wow is already using will be trying to compete about the exact same players, and it is hard to compete with 6 years of adding on content together with 7 years in development, .
It is easier to find a new playerbase than steal someone else.
@OP Thank you for the well thought out post. It wasn't what I expected from the title. Well done.
I thought the same thing when i read the title. I was pleasantly surprised when I read the actual post.
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein "Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
I agree with the whole ActionMMO bit. You can already see it happening. If you look back 2 years ago all the shooter games where just played for fun with no reward for doing anything. Now almost every big bugget shooter game has some sort of leveling system (New CoD games, Halo Reach, Medal of Honor, etc.). The problem with this is it brings all of MMO's balance issues into the mix.
Honestly I'm not sure if a P2P formula will ever work for a shooter game, the majority of the market is far to casual, but only time will tell.
1) GW2: Guild Wars 2 will succeed in 2011 or 2012 souly on the fact that it is b2p. People will be able to augment their playing of another MMO with a one time $60 payment and the occasional microtransaction. It will garner a respectable population as Arenanet will likely go after former GW players, PvP players, console gamers and obviously the MMORPG hoppers.
2) SWTOR: Star Wars the Old Republic will succeed not because it is a great MMORPG but because it ignores the MMORPG gamers as much as possible. You see BioWare realises that there are WoW gamers and MMORPG gamers. They can throw together a decent MMORPG to attract MMORPG gamers but they know they cannot take WoW players. So what can they do to succeed with such an ambitious project?
Couldn't disagree more.
Have you actually been following GW2 at all? This is getting old, but it's a WoW-Killer.
SWTOR on the other hand might turn out to be a flop. Why? Because it cost 100 million $. Just think about the huge subscriber numbers that game is going to need so it can be considered a success. But it won't get the WoW gamers, and it won't keep enough MMORPG gamers in the long run, so it's all about the Bioware and SW-fans who happen to not be WoW/MMORPG gamers... Best of luck to Bioware, but I don't see it happen.
Have you actually been following GW2 at all? This is getting old, but it's a WoW-Killer.
SWTOR on the other hand might turn out to be a flop. Why? Because it cost 100 million $. Just think about the huge subscriber numbers that game is going to need so it can be considered a success. But it won't get the WoW gamers, and it won't keep enough MMORPG gamers in the long run, so it's all about the Bioware and SW-fans who happen to not be WoW/MMORPG gamers... Best of luck to Bioware, but I don't see it happen.
WoW isn't going to die. It's no where close to dying. To kill a beast like that you have to cripple it first. It's still thriving and healthy and even if GW2 manages to pull subs away with it (I agree with the OP that WoW subscribers are likely to stay with WoW and aren't going to other games) WoW will still be no where near death. There are diehard fans that will play WoW no matter how good the next-generation of games are either from pure cluelessness (not being a gamer and not playing anything else besides WoW) or just because they don't want to lose all their progress in that game and learn a new one. People really need to stop using the term "WoW-killer".
SWTOR definitely has the potential to flop. It's trying to grab the same player base that Blizzard already has with WoW, and unlike the OP I don't think the Bioware name alone, branched dialogue trees, and multiple story paths are going to be enough here. Also I've heard from someone who tested the game and he was extremely unimpressed. It's going to be like Warhammer (or AoC) where it nets a lot of initial subscribers, but fails to hold them. That's just my prediction. It could turn out to be the next big hit too. Who really knows at this point?
Have you actually been following GW2 at all? This is getting old, but it's a WoW-Killer.
SWTOR on the other hand might turn out to be a flop. Why? Because it cost 100 million $. Just think about the huge subscriber numbers that game is going to need so it can be considered a success. But it won't get the WoW gamers, and it won't keep enough MMORPG gamers in the long run, so it's all about the Bioware and SW-fans who happen to not be WoW/MMORPG gamers... Best of luck to Bioware, but I don't see it happen.
WoW isn't going to die. It's no where close to dying. To kill a beast like that you have to cripple it first. It's still thriving and healthy and even if GW2 manages to pull subs away with it (I agree with the OP that WoW subscribers are likely to stay with WoW and aren't going to other games) WoW will still be no where near death. There are diehard fans that will play WoW no matter how good the next-generation of games are either from pure cluelessness (not being a gamer and not playing anything else besides WoW) or just because they don't want to lose all their progress in that game and learn a new one. People really need to stop using the term "WoW-killer".
SWTOR definitely has the potential to flop. It's trying to grab the same player base that Blizzard already has with WoW, and unlike the OP I don't think the Bioware name alone, branched dialogue trees, and multiple story paths are going to be enough here. Also I've heard from someone who tested the game and he was extremely unimpressed. It's going to be like Warhammer (or AoC) where it nets a lot of initial subscribers, but fails to hold them. That's just my prediction. It could turn out to be the next big hit too. Who really knows at this point?
Yall are both wrong in a sense. Like I said in my subsequent posts after the op SWTOR is going to create its playerbase from non-MMORPG gamers like WoW did. BioWare could give a rats ass if MMORPG or WoW players want story. They knwo their fans do and SW Fans do so they are banking on that.
Just like how Blizzard bank on bringing in the casuals/Blizzard fans.
@Vow- ; And LOL at GW2 as a WoW-Killer. Since you mentioned it I can assume you obviously can't get passed fanboyism because if you could then you would realise that WoW can never be killed by ANY mmo because the people that play WoW are not necissarily the same people that will play GW2 (in fact most wow players will never hear about GW2).
Just because WoW is owning the genre right now, and there's nothing else rivaling it really, doesn't mean there's a "grim future" for MMO games. People will ALWAYS play what's good and popular, and if something truly has the magic of lasting appeal, then it will last. This is all mindless speculation, and the worst case scenarios:
1: Things will stay the same with no innovation, which we can already see that isn't true; Guild Wars 2, TERA, and Rift are all bringing their own unique elements to the genre, whether it's active combat or dynamic content.
2: MMO genre will become even more segregated, but that's nothing new, and there will always be a top dog.
3: You'll become bored of the way things have become and, GASP, have to make your REAL LIFE more exciting/get a new distraction since you're unsatisfied with the new era.
There is NO grim future for MMORPGs. People will always want adventure, people will always want online entertainment. it's YOUR "grim" problem if you can't accept the way games are going.
------------------------ Everyone on this site: 1: MMORPGs are DOOMED, and I have the answers to save them! 2: THIS game's gonna kill WoW! 3: I wish things would go back to the Golden Age of MMORPGs, which only existed in my mind...
Just because WoW is owning the genre right now, and there's nothing else rivaling it really, doesn't mean there's a "grim future" for MMO games. People will ALWAYS play what's good and popular, and if something truly has the magic of lasting appeal, then it will last. This is all mindless speculation, and the worst case scenarios:
1: Things will stay the same with no innovation, which we can already see that isn't true; Guild Wars 2, TERA, and Rift are all bringing their own unique elements to the genre, whether it's active combat or dynamic content.
2: MMO genre will become even more segregated, but that's nothing new, and there will always be a top dog.
3: You'll become bored of the way things have become and, GASP, have to make your REAL LIFE more exciting/get a new distraction since you're unsatisfied with the new era.
There is NO grim future for MMORPGs. People will always want adventure, people will always want online entertainment. it's YOUR "grim" problem if you can't accept the way games are going.
You missed the point of my OP entirely. The problem isn't WoW but with companies thinking there is a player base and using WoW players as potetnial customers when they are not.
The problem for Rift is there really isnt an place for it. Neither is there a community for it. Its an MMO without customers. GW2 is hyped to hell and back but we really have no clue about it. So championing it as the savior is a bit of a fools errand.
Once again I don't think you understood what my OP was about which isnt a big deal.
Comments
Great post OP, I think you make several valid points and I can see them all being a decent picture of the way things shake out.
But one thing you've driven home several times is that WOW/Blizzard created their own captive market, and now you feel SWTOR/Bioware will do the same for their marketshare, therefore dooming the MMORPG genre.
Perhaps we need to redefine what an MMORPG is going forward, they may have changed to reflect the empires being built by these mega corps and perhaps in the future we really will have only 3-5 major players out there.
"True friends stab you in the front." | Oscar Wilde
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Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
Anyway, I really don't care about western MMOs at all, I think Swtor, Rift and GW2 are going to suck big time but I respect your opinion. The only western game I look forward to is WoDO (also blizzard's MMO but its just too far away), anything else is typical run of the mill from a big company or a buggy sandbox from an indie as of now.
While dooming the genre may have been harsh of me I just don't think WoW/SWTOR bring a new audience in. They very specifically cater to non-mmorpg gamers, people who, up until their existence would not touch an mmo.
Now some of these people might have their "MINDS OPENED" but the majority will just see WoW/SWTOR as an anomoly and will still shun the rest of the MMORPGs out there.
Again, this is how I have seen the WoW phenomenon play out and how I see BioWare playing it for SWTOR. Woow is a good game and SWTOR will probably be one but niether is good for the MMORPG industry.
But then someone could argue that bringing full voice acting can revolutionize MMORPGs. In reality its going to be awesome for those of us who LOVE that type of game, myself included, but it is not feesable for other games to do this as the costs are way to high.
People will fall in love with swtor like they fell in love with wow and when they play other games, who don't have the budget, they will feel like they are playing an inferior product and thus go back to WoW/SWTOR.
GW2 will be the exception though, as it is a b2p game and doesn't really fall into the subscription wars.
Playing: Tera, BF3, ME3
Waiting on: Guild Wars 2
Didn't Earth and Beyond Online have full voice acting?
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
"Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
I have no clue but even if it did it wasn't on the scale of SWTOR (wish I had gotten to play that game as I keep hearing good things).
One thing we can look at is Age of Conan. People LOVED (for the most part) levels 1-20. They were very linear, fully voiced and story based.
But after you leave tortage the game became an old schoolish RPG without voice acting, more open gameplay and more less linear.
This is were AoC lost its subscribers (well that and there was not enough content). It was a bait and switch basically. They sold you on tortage and then gave you 20-80 and said, well here is the rest.
Problem is people liked the voice acting and more focused gameplay of tortage and didnt like the rest.
Star Wars: The Old Republic will be like tortage but from level 1 to cap. Now, somebody who plays the crap out of SWTOR decides to try out the next big MMO that didnt have the budget of SWTOR and is turned off immediatly because its like a step back in time to what many people disliked about MMORPGs and kept them away.
Thats sort of what I mean by not bringing anything to the genre and it possibly being bad. Just like how WoW casualized everything so that people didnt want to play more complex mmorpgs.
Playing: Tera, BF3, ME3
Waiting on: Guild Wars 2
LoL, they could all be horrible horrible games indeed! I realize I sorta slighted you in that I ignored or shoved the games you like to the side. Indie players are players too but then so are WoW players. We all have opinions and likes/dislikes. Hopefully I cleared up my position though.
Playing: Tera, BF3, ME3
Waiting on: Guild Wars 2
Interesting post, some good points that I can certainly agree with. Blizzard definitely raised the bar, it made it so people were totally expecting all games released after WoW to be of WoW-quality. If SWTOR does the same, it'd definitely hurt the genre somewhat. Although people who enjoy these games will think of them as the best things ever. Will be interesting to see how this whole plays out.
EQ1-AC1-DAOC-FFXI-L2-EQ2-WoW-DDO-GW-LoTR-VG-WAR-GW2-ESO
Before I rip that statement to shreds let me congradulate you on the original post. Not only did I completely agree with everything you said, but you wrote that completely masturbatory wall of text in an entertaining way that compelled me to read past the first two sentences. Kudos to you Sir (or Ma'am)!!!
But I have to take issue with the masses loving Ass Crud. I don't think I've run into one person in real life that actually liked the first game. Even the people that were trying to get me to play Ass Crud 2 admitted that the first game was a complete abomination. I'm of the philosophy that a shitty game deserves no sequels, so I haven't played any the sequels to this steaming pile of fail and scenery porn. The masses spoke out, and they were silenced by the great advertising giant we call games journalism.
I'd also have to object to the Call of Duty thing. After the lukewarm reaction among gamers over Black Ops, I think the party is pretty much over. There are only so many macho insecure teenage/twenty-something boys in the Ameican and European market. Even that demographic is getting tired of action movies cliches told in depressing shades of dogshit brown and concrete grey.
I actually think we're on the edge of a full-scale old school revival. 2.5D platformers have been cropping up everywhere and even some exclusively Japanese Shmups have been sold retail on all platforms here in the states. Shorter, faster, more difficult games are on the horizon. There will still be deep games for those with self diagnosed Asperger's Syndrome, but I think the future is going to look a lot like the past. Well... more like an eighties arcade was thrown into a phong shaded blender and splattered all over the web...
The launch of SWTOR is going to be very interesting. I can see SWTOR having the same hate as WoW among the general MMORPG public. Many people will spell doom and gloom and then when it sells a rediculous amount and reatains/grows people will shake their head in amazement.
There is a reason why they have taken things from WoW. Its not because SWTOR is a WoW clone (beyond global cooldowns the devs haven't really shown anything that indicates its a WoW clone), its because BioWare is actually cloning Blizzard's way of creating an MMORPG population out of nothing. I am actually sort of amazed more people don't see this (maybe I am just crazy?)
Playing: Tera, BF3, ME3
Waiting on: Guild Wars 2
I enjoyed the first Assassin's Creed and the second/brotherhood blew me away. Thier sales numbers speak volumes about how recieved the games are.
Call of Duty Black Ops sold rediculiously as well, more than MW2. Dudebros just don't care that much and they will continue to sell well.
I agree old school is coming back in the indy crowd but to think the blockbuster titles are bombing is kind of mind boggling after how well they have sold this year. Hyper critical gamers like you and I may see the faults in some of these games and read the message boards and believe we know the pulse of the industry. But COD20 will still sell 4million copies and leave us shaking our heads.
I agree BLOPS is trash, BF:BC2 all the way!!!
Playing: Tera, BF3, ME3
Waiting on: Guild Wars 2
This is actually incredibly well-written and I agree with nearly everything that was said. It's an unfortunate truth. Most WoW players are not actually gamers/MMORPGer's per say. There is no MMO world to them, there is only WoW. WoW is the game that made it possible for mothers to play a game with their kids, and these are not the kinds of people that will be playing 'the next big game'. When I was playing Playstation 2, my grandmother was still happy with her nintendo and her one game of Doctor Mario.
Before the flames begin, that's not to say WoW is a childish game. There are some who would say that, but it's more accurate to say that as a casual game, it appeals to a more casual audience. This audience is the antithesis of gamers who want something more challenging to dedicate their time to; the kinds of people that struggle to unlock all those achievements/trophies on consoles and want to be the best of the server, or the first to do one thing or the other. They're a smaller audience, just as the OP mentioned, and so that's still what companies have to fight over.
Quick note though, not ALL of WoW's player-base is casual. One of my closest friends plays games as much or more than me, and he plays WoW. We also play Guild Wars together, and will both be migrating over to GW2 when it comes out. He's also jumped from one game to the other just like me, from LOTRO to DDO to Champions, etc. But whenever something new happens in WoW, he goes to try it out. Why? In his words, because it's easy, and he can do nearly everything solo. He teams with his guild members once in a blue moon when he needs raid gear, and otherwise never talks to or does anything with anyone, ever. Mind you after a month, he's bored again and looking for a new game, but it still proves a point that even 'gamers' play WoW.
"Forums aren't for intelligent discussion; they're for blow-hards with unwavering opinions."
Nice point of view you have here...
I believe that somewhere in time the mmorpg genre will simply stop growing, the people you called mmo players, become so jaded with the launches that they become more and more demanding, never fullfilling what they really want ,dooming every game produced, good or not.
Then the RPG part of MMO will die for some time, but other kind of MMOs will rise, like MMOFPSes/ MMORTses etc...
"It has potential"
-Second most used phrase on existence
"It sucks"
-Most used phrase on existence
First off, my mom, to this day, still pines for Doctor Mario, lol. I got her an xbox 360 with Kinect and the first thing she asked was "Can I play Doctor Mario?". Instead I plugged in fable 2 and got her playing that (women LOVE fable games). All of this was to break her farmtown addiction of coarse :P .
As for the rest of your post I think you point out something important, WoW is a good game. It really is that simple. I will be playing it tonight because my friends are. Does that make me bad? sacreligous? hypocrit? No, it makes me a gamer that wants to play a good game. Do I wish it was way more complex? Yes, of coarse, but if there is a place for Farm Town then there is a place for WoW.
WoW is casual yes, but that doesn't mean that a hardcore gamer cannot find enjoyment in it. It just means that they wont stay long (I expect to spend maybe a month playing CATA before my interests pull me elsewhere). Some may think that the money spent isnt worth it but to me hanging out with my buds is worth every penny.
Playing: Tera, BF3, ME3
Waiting on: Guild Wars 2
@OP Thank you for the well thought out post. It wasn't what I expected from the title. Well done.
There are also plenty of hardcore gamers who have stuck with WoW for years. One of the things WoW does correctly is appeal to a wide variety of gamers. Whether or not you like WoW or not it's hard not to say WoW doesn't with achievements that can be time consuming and/or difficult to get. Hardcore raiding has always been around since WoW's release, and it's actually more challenging (but less time consuming) than raids in past MMOs like EQ that were only meant for the hardcore.
WoW also correctly puts emphasis on end game content first. TBC featured mostly end game content with only two new low level starter zones and a few quests added in random areas of the game. WotLK featured all end game content. Blizzard assumes that even a casual player will eventually reach the end game and they make it so a casual player will. Add optional "Heroic" gear and tokens that can be obtained through more casual play (TBC), nerf bosses after they've been completed by most of the other guilds (since Ragnaros), lower the EXP curve (WotLK), add more quests that give better EXP rewards (TBC), etc. Blizzard understands the wants and needs of their player base, they cater to both the casual and the hardcore.
Most of the hype for the new star wars is about how cool the story is going to be . .. this game is supposed to be an MMORPG and their biggest hype is the fcking story?!?!? Who cares about the story? I mean, its a video game and not a movie. Stories are for console games that you play for a couple days until you are sick of the game. I predict the new star wars keeping people entertained for about as long as a console star wars game would. Not going to say that it will not be successful but I very much doubt your predictions. Your on the right track though and nice post overall, but seriously? The new star wars looks so bad. Going back to SWG looks more appealing FFS. They have a lot of hype so it should make back the money invested into it but keeping people subscribing monthly is probably not going to happen for long unless they are already working on new expansions because once you watch a movie, the story is over pretty much. Even if you think its the best game ever, the main hype is all about the story, so what do you think is going to happen when players have seen all of the mini-movies in the game? Gameplay has to make up for that. So far, there is very little to absolutely no hype about the gameplay. That says something. But these people are making it!!! But the story is going to be sooo cool!!! Yeah I've played all of their games for about 2 days each. I doubt its going to fly as an MMORPG unless they already have an expansion lined up for next season.
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True I knw several HC gamers that have played wow for 5+ years. But funny enough do I only know casual players that have started the last 3 or 4 years.
Wow did apply to hardcore gamers once and still have some raiding that does. But I don't think that those gamers are increasing, rather the other way around.
Wow have done a lot of things right but the typical Wow gamer today is very different from the typical player 6 years ago. Not that it might be bad but Wows hardcore appeal is down a lot nowadays but it still have enough to keep the ones still playing it.
Blizzard have spent a lot of time on how to maximize their sub numbers. My feel however is that it is a mistake to aim for the same group Wow is aiming for, while sooner or later they will change game (or most of them at least, no game last forever after all) that might take time and it is better to do like Blizzard and aim for a large group that hasn't any large MMO right now but might start, like fans of games like Oblivion, RTS fans, FPS fans, Roleplayers (which isn't Blizzards main group but many people do enjoy RPG) or something else.
As for how correctly Wow have focused on endgame content, that really is an open question. First of all is not really Wows endgame that varied, you have instanced, raids and battlegrounds but that is more or less it. Better gear is the easiest word to describe it, there is a lot more options you can use in an endgame, for one thing is half the game very open for soloplayers while they have no endgame at all.
Secondly endgame means more or less that your character wont improve, only his gear and reputation. Eve on the other hand have no endgame, you will always become better. I think that is an interesting option as well as gear based endgame. The third option is letting it take a long time to get to the endgame as older games have done with varying results, problem is that you must keep the grind feeling down and the level system isn't great for that.
Games do well by learning by looking on Wow, but not by re usings Wows ideas. Looking on what Wow did right is great, like good programming and a dialog with the players/Blizz fans are ideas that work straight off but a game using too many things that Wow is already using will be trying to compete about the exact same players, and it is hard to compete with 6 years of adding on content together with 7 years in development, .
It is easier to find a new playerbase than steal someone else.
I thought the same thing when i read the title. I was pleasantly surprised when I read the actual post.
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
"Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
Good post.
I agree with the whole ActionMMO bit. You can already see it happening. If you look back 2 years ago all the shooter games where just played for fun with no reward for doing anything. Now almost every big bugget shooter game has some sort of leveling system (New CoD games, Halo Reach, Medal of Honor, etc.). The problem with this is it brings all of MMO's balance issues into the mix.
Honestly I'm not sure if a P2P formula will ever work for a shooter game, the majority of the market is far to casual, but only time will tell.
True true true. Agree 100% OP. We are 3 or 4 years from what all us old schoolers want. Crazy as this sounds I think it will be Brad Mcquaid.
Couldn't disagree more.
Have you actually been following GW2 at all? This is getting old, but it's a WoW-Killer.
SWTOR on the other hand might turn out to be a flop. Why? Because it cost 100 million $. Just think about the huge subscriber numbers that game is going to need so it can be considered a success. But it won't get the WoW gamers, and it won't keep enough MMORPG gamers in the long run, so it's all about the Bioware and SW-fans who happen to not be WoW/MMORPG gamers... Best of luck to Bioware, but I don't see it happen.
Hype train -> Reality
WoW isn't going to die. It's no where close to dying. To kill a beast like that you have to cripple it first. It's still thriving and healthy and even if GW2 manages to pull subs away with it (I agree with the OP that WoW subscribers are likely to stay with WoW and aren't going to other games) WoW will still be no where near death. There are diehard fans that will play WoW no matter how good the next-generation of games are either from pure cluelessness (not being a gamer and not playing anything else besides WoW) or just because they don't want to lose all their progress in that game and learn a new one. People really need to stop using the term "WoW-killer".
SWTOR definitely has the potential to flop. It's trying to grab the same player base that Blizzard already has with WoW, and unlike the OP I don't think the Bioware name alone, branched dialogue trees, and multiple story paths are going to be enough here. Also I've heard from someone who tested the game and he was extremely unimpressed. It's going to be like Warhammer (or AoC) where it nets a lot of initial subscribers, but fails to hold them. That's just my prediction. It could turn out to be the next big hit too. Who really knows at this point?
Yall are both wrong in a sense. Like I said in my subsequent posts after the op SWTOR is going to create its playerbase from non-MMORPG gamers like WoW did. BioWare could give a rats ass if MMORPG or WoW players want story. They knwo their fans do and SW Fans do so they are banking on that.
Just like how Blizzard bank on bringing in the casuals/Blizzard fans.
@Vow- ; And LOL at GW2 as a WoW-Killer. Since you mentioned it I can assume you obviously can't get passed fanboyism because if you could then you would realise that WoW can never be killed by ANY mmo because the people that play WoW are not necissarily the same people that will play GW2 (in fact most wow players will never hear about GW2).
Please keep the fanboy crap out of this thread.
Playing: Tera, BF3, ME3
Waiting on: Guild Wars 2
Just because WoW is owning the genre right now, and there's nothing else rivaling it really, doesn't mean there's a "grim future" for MMO games. People will ALWAYS play what's good and popular, and if something truly has the magic of lasting appeal, then it will last. This is all mindless speculation, and the worst case scenarios:
1: Things will stay the same with no innovation, which we can already see that isn't true; Guild Wars 2, TERA, and Rift are all bringing their own unique elements to the genre, whether it's active combat or dynamic content.
2: MMO genre will become even more segregated, but that's nothing new, and there will always be a top dog.
3: You'll become bored of the way things have become and, GASP, have to make your REAL LIFE more exciting/get a new distraction since you're unsatisfied with the new era.
There is NO grim future for MMORPGs. People will always want adventure, people will always want online entertainment. it's YOUR "grim" problem if you can't accept the way games are going.
------------------------
Everyone on this site:
1: MMORPGs are DOOMED, and I have the answers to save them!
2: THIS game's gonna kill WoW!
3: I wish things would go back to the Golden Age of MMORPGs, which only existed in my mind...
You missed the point of my OP entirely. The problem isn't WoW but with companies thinking there is a player base and using WoW players as potetnial customers when they are not.
The problem for Rift is there really isnt an place for it. Neither is there a community for it. Its an MMO without customers. GW2 is hyped to hell and back but we really have no clue about it. So championing it as the savior is a bit of a fools errand.
Once again I don't think you understood what my OP was about which isnt a big deal.
Playing: Tera, BF3, ME3
Waiting on: Guild Wars 2