In the place of the MMORPG, will be born an new type of MMO game. It will be created to capture the console market of Call of Duty, Gears of War and Uncharted fans. This genre of MMOAction games will be fast paced and competitive and once the interenet begins to lower latency across the board you can expect to play an MMO that handles just like a single player action game. While there will obviously be RPG mechanics they will be much more akin to Mass Effect than any old school MMORPG.
Sounds ****ing awesome.
I can't wait for the death of tab-targeting hotbar spam fests, instancing, and all of the class/level acoutrement trash that go with them.
RPG elements are great; the 324,856,725,076,234,628,394,672nd take on the "Warrior" class isn't.
Bring on shooter combat and class-less gameplay!
Yeah it does sound awesome. I will enjoy those games, but just like my single player tastes (wide range from shooters to slow RPGS) I still want more tradition RPGs to be around and be more than buggy indy projects with low budget everything.
Trues-ville.
The dilemma I see with the concept of fast paced action MMOs is player fatigue. The idea of playing fast paced action games for hours and hours regularly like many play an MMO now... I think it's not likely for people to keep playing as much as they used to. Now, this might be a positive thing for many peoples marriages...
I think the first hit MMOAG will be part Demon Souls, part Farmville and part RPG.
It will be a vast persistant world with combo/dodge/block based combat and very few 'stats". Basically the typical RPG set up with int, end, hlth, mana, armor, etc will be hidden deep within the UI. The casual player will only ever care about health, armor, damage and mana. With that basic knowledge they will be able to button mash through the game and have a blast. For people that care we will be able to view these stats but min-maxing is not really going to be as prevelant.
I do think some of the combo systems will be pretty deep though. Easy to use and tough to master will be the tag line.
The world itself will have A LOT of farmville in it. In fact, it wouldnt surprise me at all to see people play the entire game as a farmer and just make their little farms and never do combat or Raid/PvP.
AI will finally come out of the stone ages and make combat more interesting and deadly. No longer will you be able to single pul a mob out of a group and the concept of stealth will be forever changed. Think Mass Effect, Demon souls, etc for combat/AI.
The other big change will be Raid bosses being soloable. Yeah, I know, but the ENTIRE game will be soloable or groupable. It will scale just like Borderlands. The more people in your group, the harder the content and the better the drops.
But thats just a rough idea of what I see.
The farmville thing has occurred to me too. There are 88 million people worldwide playing that game. You'd have a game that has a zone or a whole population of people who play the Farmy Farming McFarmington aspect of the game, then you'll have several other game aspects around it. One game world, but several different games.
I don't see AI improving too much until we get something like quantum computing power in our current linear digital processors. Let's use WoW as an example...the AI server would not only be running orc #213 on server #1, the AI server would be running orc #213 on servers #2 through #500 as well. It's a matter of scale. I think they could increase the complexity of the patterns the mobs follow right now but there's hard limits on what they can manage in bandwidth and processing. Ryzom does it, but they are pretty small scale and the patterns are still pretty simple (even if they are better than anything else out there right now).
I think we're going to see a return of the sandbox economy to themepark games. They've pretty much played out everything with the themepark economy...there's not really anyplace new to go.
I see them as being zoned off. It will be the same game but the non combat zone will be this huge area where people can go around clicking their crops and making sure they get harvested. Or making sure there is grass for their cattle. They will be able to sell what they make at market to people who make stuff for the "adventurers".
The combat zones will be smaller but more varied. Lots of cool environments for people to button mash in. :P
Unlike many, I see a very grim future for the MMORPG genre. I believe that right now were are at the penicle of AAA MMORPG games and it will be all down hill from here until the genre either is reborn from its ashes, or is swept away by other forms of MMO games. You are probably thinking I am crazy right now but please, follow me down this rabbit hole of temporary insanity and let me explain my reasoning.
Chasing Customers That Don't Exist
Right now many publishers and developers believe there to be a HUGE audience in which they can market and sell their games. They look at WoW's impressive numbers and view its playerbase as potential customers all the while not realizing that they are making a huge mistake.
You see, pre-WoW MMORPG players were a niche audience and post WoW MMORPGS are STILL a niche audience. "BUT, BUT, BUT, WOW HAS 12 trillionbillion members," you cry angrily. True but WoW players are not MMORPG gamers, they were brought to this industry to play WoW and many of them (possibly upwards of 50%) will never play another MMORPG if they even know of others that exist. So in other words there are actually two genres;
1) MMORPGs which have a niche audience that hops between games constantly looking for "that game" that takes them back to the magic they felt with UO, EQ, AC, etc. They are never happy and hate how games are trying to copy wow.
2) WoW. Yes WoW should be considered a genre because it has a population that rivals the greater MMORPG population in size and most if not all of this population will play WoW until Blizzards next MMO comes out or they shut down the servers.
A funny story I like to tell revolves around my time playing LotRO. I was early to a raid in a guilds vent and I came across a large group of people playing WoW. They asked me who I was and what character I was playing in WoW. I said I was playing LotRO and was here for a raid. I swear that 6 or 7 of them asked me, "What is Lord of the Rings Online?". That right there is not an isolated incendent as I have come across many WoW players in the real world that have no clue what other MMORPGs are out there.
Bandwagoning to the Point of Oversaturation
With the success of WoW it was obvious that many developers would try to copy it. The problem is people who play WoW, and might be looking for another game, don't want to play rushed copies of WoW but they also don't want to play games that deviate away from the comfort area of WoW. So they spend very little time in other MMOs before going back to WoW. This leaves the WoW clones and games that differentiate from WoW fighting over that extremly niche group of MMORPG players who cannot be happy EVER.
As of right now we are hitting the breaking point of oversaturation. Companies keep releasing these big budget MMOs to a population that doesn't exist and wondering why they only have 100k to 200k subscriptions after 2 months time. The answer is there are too many games fighting for a niche group of customers and the idea that WoW players are customers is a fallacy.
2011 the MMORPG Armageddon
2011 will be the last year of big budget MMORPGs. While there maybe some planned for 2012 and beyond expect many of them to become vaporware or shells of their former self. The reson for the Armageddon is going to be the mass oversaturation by new games. We have DCUO, SWTOR, Rift, The Agency, (possibly) GW2 and others launching in the same year. Most of them are going to be fighting over that same niche group of people that game hop right now and all but two are going to crash and burn like the Hindenburg. I will discuss why two of those will succeed now.
1) GW2: Guild Wars 2 will succeed in 2011 or 2012 souly on the fact that it is b2p. People will be able to augment their playing of another MMO with a one time $60 payment and the occasional microtransaction. It will garner a respectable population as Arenanet will likely go after former GW players, PvP players, console gamers and obviously the MMORPG hoppers.
2) SWTOR: Star Wars the Old Republic will succeed not because it is a great MMORPG but because it ignores the MMORPG gamers as much as possible. You see BioWare realises that there are WoW gamers and MMORPG gamers. They can throw together a decent MMORPG to attract MMORPG gamers but they know they cannot take WoW players. So what can they do to succeed with such an ambitious project?
The answer is simple. BioWare is making a game that will appeal to the people who enjoy BioWare games by adding 8 full length single player games and adding just enough multiplayer content that they can justify the monthly fee. It will be an MMORPG but not targeted at WoW gamers or MMORPG gamers. It is targeted at BioWare fans, SW fans and casual gamers. For this reason BioWare will pull a Blizzard and garner a big enough population to be considered a success in the industry. It will not break down any walls, it will be KotoR 1-8 with multiplayer gameplay, raids, huge worlds, PvP and everything WoW has.
In other words, BioWare is doing everything Blizzard did in 2005 to create their own audience. They do not need the niche MMORPG audience although many of them will give them money.
Post Armageddon
After developers realize that there is no money to be made by copying WoW and that the general MMORPG population is to fickle and jaded to appease they will move on to smaller or more casual projects. Big budget MMORGSs will die out and there will be SWTOR, WoW and Blizzards next MMO.
In the place of the MMORPG, will be born an new type of MMO game. It will be created to capture the console market of Call of Duty, Gears of War and Uncharted fans. This genre of MMOAction games will be fast paced and competitive and once the interenet begins to lower latency across the board you can expect to play an MMO that handles just like a single player action game. While there will obviously be RPG mechanics they will be much more akin to Mass Effect than any old school MMORPG. Many of us old timers will view it as an abomination and cling to some of the smaller budget traditional MMORPGs that still get released.
The funy thing is, it will be Blizzard themselves who bring about this new era in MMO games with Titan. Which will shortly be followed by Bungie's MMO. It will be a great time for lovers of the three B's (Blizzard, Bungie, BioWare) but for those that still cling to UO and EQ it will be hell.
awesome post. i would add that as devs continue to regurgitate the same game over and over again and fail with it it will become harder and harder for people to obtain venture capital funding to create new games.
I still have hope that there will be a GREAT AAA MMORPG that comes out of NOWHERE. Some small company is going to someday get the widgets going just right to have a truly fun game. It will NOT have been intented as AAA. It will NOT have been huge budget. However it WILL have decent graphics (even the little games are improving this way) and will NOT suffer from square grid syndrome. But most importantly it will be FUN and allow players to rediscover some of the love they had for their old games.
You see this somewhat with minecraft. It is something that is very bad in the graphics department but it has garnered a lot of players anyway because it is different. The stars will align for someone and they will get everything reasonably close to just right with enough novelty to all of a sudden end up with a million players -- and it will go up from there. Nobody will see it coming.
----
As for the other games listed, the failure of FFXIV has produced an opening. The discouraged have had nowhere to go and are biding time. Also by the time they release Cataclysm will be old hat for people. Things might not be so very bleak for them assuming they didnt spend a warhammer level of money on the project. I can see all of them at least initially reaching 300k. Whether they can keep those subs will depend on how the game is.
Considering the progression of development tools, a decent title will most likely come sooner or later from an Indie company rather than a corportate one, and peg a niche crowd.
Unlike many, I see a very grim future for the MMORPG genre. I believe that right now were are at the penicle of AAA MMORPG games and it will be all down hill from here until the genre either is reborn from its ashes, or is swept away by other forms of MMO games. You are probably thinking I am crazy right now but please, follow me down this rabbit hole of temporary insanity and let me explain my reasoning.
Chasing Customers That Don't Exist
Right now many publishers and developers believe there to be a HUGE audience in which they can market and sell their games. They look at WoW's impressive numbers and view its playerbase as potential customers all the while not realizing that they are making a huge mistake.
You see, pre-WoW MMORPG players were a niche audience and post WoW MMORPGS are STILL a niche audience. "BUT, BUT, BUT, WOW HAS 12 trillionbillion members," you cry angrily. True but WoW players are not MMORPG gamers, they were brought to this industry to play WoW and many of them (possibly upwards of 50%) will never play another MMORPG if they even know of others that exist. So in other words there are actually two genres;
1) MMORPGs which have a niche audience that hops between games constantly looking for "that game" that takes them back to the magic they felt with UO, EQ, AC, etc. They are never happy and hate how games are trying to copy wow.
2) WoW. Yes WoW should be considered a genre because it has a population that rivals the greater MMORPG population in size and most if not all of this population will play WoW until Blizzards next MMO comes out or they shut down the servers.
A funny story I like to tell revolves around my time playing LotRO. I was early to a raid in a guilds vent and I came across a large group of people playing WoW. They asked me who I was and what character I was playing in WoW. I said I was playing LotRO and was here for a raid. I swear that 6 or 7 of them asked me, "What is Lord of the Rings Online?". That right there is not an isolated incendent as I have come across many WoW players in the real world that have no clue what other MMORPGs are out there.
Bandwagoning to the Point of Oversaturation
With the success of WoW it was obvious that many developers would try to copy it. The problem is people who play WoW, and might be looking for another game, don't want to play rushed copies of WoW but they also don't want to play games that deviate away from the comfort area of WoW. So they spend very little time in other MMOs before going back to WoW. This leaves the WoW clones and games that differentiate from WoW fighting over that extremly niche group of MMORPG players who cannot be happy EVER.
As of right now we are hitting the breaking point of oversaturation. Companies keep releasing these big budget MMOs to a population that doesn't exist and wondering why they only have 100k to 200k subscriptions after 2 months time. The answer is there are too many games fighting for a niche group of customers and the idea that WoW players are customers is a fallacy.
2011 the MMORPG Armageddon
2011 will be the last year of big budget MMORPGs. While there maybe some planned for 2012 and beyond expect many of them to become vaporware or shells of their former self. The reson for the Armageddon is going to be the mass oversaturation by new games. We have DCUO, SWTOR, Rift, The Agency, (possibly) GW2 and others launching in the same year. Most of them are going to be fighting over that same niche group of people that game hop right now and all but two are going to crash and burn like the Hindenburg. I will discuss why two of those will succeed now.
1) GW2: Guild Wars 2 will succeed in 2011 or 2012 souly on the fact that it is b2p. People will be able to augment their playing of another MMO with a one time $60 payment and the occasional microtransaction. It will garner a respectable population as Arenanet will likely go after former GW players, PvP players, console gamers and obviously the MMORPG hoppers.
2) SWTOR: Star Wars the Old Republic will succeed not because it is a great MMORPG but because it ignores the MMORPG gamers as much as possible. You see BioWare realises that there are WoW gamers and MMORPG gamers. They can throw together a decent MMORPG to attract MMORPG gamers but they know they cannot take WoW players. So what can they do to succeed with such an ambitious project?
The answer is simple. BioWare is making a game that will appeal to the people who enjoy BioWare games by adding 8 full length single player games and adding just enough multiplayer content that they can justify the monthly fee. It will be an MMORPG but not targeted at WoW gamers or MMORPG gamers. It is targeted at BioWare fans, SW fans and casual gamers. For this reason BioWare will pull a Blizzard and garner a big enough population to be considered a success in the industry. It will not break down any walls, it will be KotoR 1-8 with multiplayer gameplay, raids, huge worlds, PvP and everything WoW has.
In other words, BioWare is doing everything Blizzard did in 2005 to create their own audience. They do not need the niche MMORPG audience although many of them will give them money.
Post Armageddon
After developers realize that there is no money to be made by copying WoW and that the general MMORPG population is to fickle and jaded to appease they will move on to smaller or more casual projects. Big budget MMORGSs will die out and there will be SWTOR, WoW and Blizzards next MMO.
In the place of the MMORPG, will be born an new type of MMO game. It will be created to capture the console market of Call of Duty, Gears of War and Uncharted fans. This genre of MMOAction games will be fast paced and competitive and once the interenet begins to lower latency across the board you can expect to play an MMO that handles just like a single player action game. While there will obviously be RPG mechanics they will be much more akin to Mass Effect than any old school MMORPG. Many of us old timers will view it as an abomination and cling to some of the smaller budget traditional MMORPGs that still get released.
The funy thing is, it will be Blizzard themselves who bring about this new era in MMO games with Titan. Which will shortly be followed by Bungie's MMO. It will be a great time for lovers of the three B's (Blizzard, Bungie, BioWare) but for those that still cling to UO and EQ it will be hell.
awesome post. i would add that as devs continue to regurgitate the same game over and over again and fail with it it will become harder and harder for people to obtain venture capital funding to create new games.
If I recall the Massive action game [MMOAG] has already been done and has infact ALREADY paved the way for that very phenomina. MAG anyone? It's already a greatest hits title on the PS3 quite enjoyable, I've been playing it since the MMORPG genre went south, but yes it's nothing compared to the depth of Everquest or UO but you can bet this is the game they will build off of.
Interesting post, some good points that I can certainly agree with. Blizzard definitely raised the bar, it made it so people were totally expecting all games released after WoW to be of WoW-quality. If SWTOR does the same, it'd definitely hurt the genre somewhat. Although people who enjoy these games will think of them as the best things ever. Will be interesting to see how this whole plays out.
The launch of SWTOR is going to be very interesting. I can see SWTOR having the same hate as WoW among the general MMORPG public. Many people will spell doom and gloom and then when it sells a rediculous amount and reatains/grows people will shake their head in amazement.
There is a reason why they have taken things from WoW. Its not because SWTOR is a WoW clone (beyond global cooldowns the devs haven't really shown anything that indicates its a WoW clone), its because BioWare is actually cloning Blizzard's way of creating an MMORPG population out of nothing. I am actually sort of amazed more people don't see this (maybe I am just crazy?)
I agree with you. I know several people who are interested in SWToR who are not interested in any other MMO. They have played other Bioware games and like them. Bioware is hoping to create their audience from their fans and Star Wars fans. Old School MMO players are a pretty small number in comparison.
Interesting post, some good points that I can certainly agree with. Blizzard definitely raised the bar, it made it so people were totally expecting all games released after WoW to be of WoW-quality. If SWTOR does the same, it'd definitely hurt the genre somewhat. Although people who enjoy these games will think of them as the best things ever. Will be interesting to see how this whole plays out.
The launch of SWTOR is going to be very interesting. I can see SWTOR having the same hate as WoW among the general MMORPG public. Many people will spell doom and gloom and then when it sells a rediculous amount and reatains/grows people will shake their head in amazement.
There is a reason why they have taken things from WoW. Its not because SWTOR is a WoW clone (beyond global cooldowns the devs haven't really shown anything that indicates its a WoW clone), its because BioWare is actually cloning Blizzard's way of creating an MMORPG population out of nothing. I am actually sort of amazed more people don't see this (maybe I am just crazy?)
I agree with you. I know several people who are interested in SWToR who are not interested in any other MMO. They have played other Bioware games and like them. Bioware is hoping to create their audience from their fans and Star Wars fans. Old School MMO players are a pretty small number in comparison.
But Bioware games are typically played for a few days tops. The biggest hype for the new star wars is the story. What happens after they have watched the story? How are they going to keep people subscribing every month? People will probably hit skip when they are watching the story anyways . .. and the story is the biggest hype. That leads me to think that it will be a joke as far as MMORPGs go. Even new people who want to watch the story will probably be encouraged to hit skip so that their friends dont have to wait for him.
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Interesting post, some good points that I can certainly agree with. Blizzard definitely raised the bar, it made it so people were totally expecting all games released after WoW to be of WoW-quality. If SWTOR does the same, it'd definitely hurt the genre somewhat. Although people who enjoy these games will think of them as the best things ever. Will be interesting to see how this whole plays out.
The launch of SWTOR is going to be very interesting. I can see SWTOR having the same hate as WoW among the general MMORPG public. Many people will spell doom and gloom and then when it sells a rediculous amount and reatains/grows people will shake their head in amazement.
There is a reason why they have taken things from WoW. Its not because SWTOR is a WoW clone (beyond global cooldowns the devs haven't really shown anything that indicates its a WoW clone), its because BioWare is actually cloning Blizzard's way of creating an MMORPG population out of nothing. I am actually sort of amazed more people don't see this (maybe I am just crazy?)
I agree with you. I know several people who are interested in SWToR who are not interested in any other MMO. They have played other Bioware games and like them. Bioware is hoping to create their audience from their fans and Star Wars fans. Old School MMO players are a pretty small number in comparison.
But Bioware games are typically played for a few days tops. The biggest hype for the new star wars is the story. What happens after they have watched the story? How are they going to keep people subscribing every month? People will probably hit skip when they are watching the story anyways . .. and the story is the biggest hype. That leads me to think that it will be a joke as far as MMORPGs go. Even new people who want to watch the story will probably be encouraged to hit skip so that their friends dont have to wait for him.
Well there are 8 stories for lovers of story to play through. Beyond they they will do it the same way Blizzard got thier fans hooked. These non-mmogamers are going to be WAY more succeptable to the gear grind than us vets who are tired of it. It will be like sheep to a slaughter.
There never was a golden age of mmorpgs. They've pretty much always sucked. Back in the day we just put up with it because there were no other choices. Now we have a thousand choices and guess what? They suck too. Nothing can ever stand up to the nostalgia blinders.
Oh yes, I'm sure it's all just nostalgia. Hey it's possible to have nostalgia about games you played 2 years ago, right?
Get a grip on reality man. It's not nostalgia.
You think the golden age of MMORPGs was two years ago? Oooootay
I think he was saying that the rose tinted glasses can start earlier than you think.
I am inclined to agree that is what will happen with the MMORPG genre in the West, but the East shouldn't be underestimated.
Eastern MMORPG's still do cling to grinders, open worlds, and other traditional MMORPG ideas. This is why Aion is so popular in S. Korea and a massive success for NCSOFT. To me the revolution will come from the east not the west. As you have outlined the West will remain in a status quo.
Interesting post, some good points that I can certainly agree with. Blizzard definitely raised the bar, it made it so people were totally expecting all games released after WoW to be of WoW-quality. If SWTOR does the same, it'd definitely hurt the genre somewhat. Although people who enjoy these games will think of them as the best things ever. Will be interesting to see how this whole plays out.
The launch of SWTOR is going to be very interesting. I can see SWTOR having the same hate as WoW among the general MMORPG public. Many people will spell doom and gloom and then when it sells a rediculous amount and reatains/grows people will shake their head in amazement.
There is a reason why they have taken things from WoW. Its not because SWTOR is a WoW clone (beyond global cooldowns the devs haven't really shown anything that indicates its a WoW clone), its because BioWare is actually cloning Blizzard's way of creating an MMORPG population out of nothing. I am actually sort of amazed more people don't see this (maybe I am just crazy?)
I agree with you. I know several people who are interested in SWToR who are not interested in any other MMO. They have played other Bioware games and like them. Bioware is hoping to create their audience from their fans and Star Wars fans. Old School MMO players are a pretty small number in comparison.
But Bioware games are typically played for a few days tops. The biggest hype for the new star wars is the story. What happens after they have watched the story? How are they going to keep people subscribing every month? People will probably hit skip when they are watching the story anyways . .. and the story is the biggest hype. That leads me to think that it will be a joke as far as MMORPGs go. Even new people who want to watch the story will probably be encouraged to hit skip so that their friends dont have to wait for him.
But remember, this is not just a standard bioware game. They have said that players would be able to group up and explore areas which of course is the standard mmo fare. There are also the regular quests as well and I imagine that the min-game space combat thing is something that players might get into.
Now, I dont' know how successful the "grab players and explore" thing will be but they stated it's in there so that is more mmo like over regular bioware games.
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I hope you dont mind, I hope you dont mind, that I put down in words. How wonderful MMORPGs were before WoW came to this world.
Well put and spot on, I sure hope this "cataclysm" happens soon. We could really use a spring clean of the whole genre, and a name for this new kind of action MMO's made for .. kids of all ages.
Companies are not completely off though, they have a huge audience for these kind of games, the mistake they make and we for beleiving them, is they think they make MMORPS.
The future is for the young and the new action mmo's are simply what kids and casual gamers wants today.
These players will not have PC's, they will have consoles, pads and phones and the games for these things will always be simpler.
The niche MMO players will still be here, not only the old sour ones like myself but also new players, and we can hope a cleanout of the genre will leave so few games that we can find a decent population and gameplay with one of these.
There is still a slight hope buried deep in me that I will be proved wrong one day.
Well I'm going to have to disagree with your argument OP.
Your whole argument basically hinges on the assumption that WoW players are not "MMORPG-gamers" and thus cannot be won over to other MMORPGs. To be honest, I think this is ridiculous. WoW is most definitely, an MMORPG. In fact, it could be argued that WoW is currently the definitive MMORPG. Therefore, I see no reason why a WoW player is not indeed an MMORPG-gamer that could be won over to another MMORPG.
You imply in your post that since some WoW gamers are not aware of other MMORPGs (LOTR) that they would not be willing to try any other MMORPGs. I don't agree with this logic. It is probably true that WoW-gamers are not MMORPG-enthusiasts (like us), so they probably aren't as well informed, but that does not mean that wouldn't be willing to try a new MMORPG that appeals to them moreso than WoW. For example, if GW2 turns out to be superior to WoW in several ways and is marketed well it most definitely could pull some of WoW's audience away.
In the end, I think this whole WoW phenomenon has a much simpler explanation that being an MMO yet also being its own untouchable genre. WoW was and is simply the highest quality MMORPG on the market. I am completely sick of WoW, but I have to admit every MMORPG I played, especially ones that try to mirror WoW, have been vastly inferior. In my opinion, WoW will remain dominant precisely until a game is released that provides a superior experience to WoW and is successful in informing WoW's player base of its existence.
DCU is a short pooper, play to max level in 3 weeks and quit.
Rift is a WOW clone with some small quirks.
Tera is another Asia grinder like Aion.
SWTOR is boring and dull. (see Gamestar & 4Players articles)
GW2 is ?? Who knows.
That's like taking the see-saw, pushing both the devs and players off either side and tipping it so that it's facing bottom-up and unusable.
Cheer up, mate. They all "promise" something special, so let's not get ahead of ourselves and be patient. We've been patient all these years already...
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I and others have done threads on this sort of issue before you are not alone in your concerns. As you can also see from the many replies to this thread. Like you I am particularly concerned about the future of MMO’s and indeed gaming. Many seem to think the rot stops here, but there is no reason for that to happen, it will just continue.
I have linked the decline in MMO quality to the increasingly corporate nature of gaming companies before and I recently noticed another trend that confirms this is happening.
Firstly though I need to point out that the corporate nature of any business is important and needed for it to thrive, I am not advocating some sort of naïve business sense free initiative here.
If you look at games from Eastern Europe and Russia you will find games being made the way we used to in Western Europe and the US. Titles Like The Witcher, Arm2, Stalker, Elven Legacy and so on. They harken back to a time when publishers were prepared to take risks, not just make games for everyone ‘and their mom.’ We are already in a situation were gaming companies predominantly produce games that are for everyone rather than different types of players. We are already far on the road to a Starbucks genre instead of a local coffee house genre.
It is the small nature of those East European and Russian companies that is helping to produce these gems, you don’t need huge monoliths like EA and Blizzard to produce a good game. Oh and these guys do patches and free updates, remember when you last had that from a game produced in the west? Now days it is the fashion not to patch and release paid for DLC on the day of launch! Take the Witcher, there were some complaints about lack of character models, ten months later a huge patch is released with loads of extras models. Corporate mentality shines through when you don’t bother to patch, after all they have already paid haven’t they, why bother? When the only post release product you work on is paid for DLC that says it all.
But it is not all good news from the east, Allods is the only MMO I have heard about form that region and though it was described as innovative the F2P fees were exorbitant in important areas of play.
But I don’t see Eastern Europe and Russia as some sort of saviour here, they are on the road that leads to where we are today. But they do indicate that this is no old gamers nostalgia, you can still make games the way they did ten years ago and knock the stuffing out of the puerile mash they are feeding us today.
I don't think the ultimate future of mmos is grim at all . The immediate future however could be another matter . I think we all know what needs to happen and that is for a game to come along that offers a mass appeal alternative to WoW .it does'nt have to be even that different in fact to have that mass appeal it would need to build on whats gone before . After all we did'nt get from DOOM to Half-Life over night did we . So lets be realistic eh . Next years batch of mmos look the stronger ever to me . We could see another lot of Warhammers , Vanguards or Age of Conans but I'm hoping one of them is that competition .
The good news is, all of the developers of next years crop of games has had a chance to see what happens when someone tries to copy WOW (and fails).
What lesson they take away from this will be important, will they try to carve their own way or decide that previous failures didn't follow the WOW forumula enough and will continue the trend towards obvlion.
But like the OP said, it looks like Bioware and to a lesser extent Arenanet are trying to carve their marketshare from the players of their previous games and it might mean only these two titles have any reach chance of reaching reasonably large sales/sub numbers. (GW2's unique payment model also gives it an extra edge)
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
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I agree with the OP on some points. 2011 - 2012 may well be the last 2 years of huge budget mmorpgs being released IF none of the ones released are successful. If even one of them is then it will inspire other companies to try to take a share of the market... and there certainly are a few set for release that I think will be a success. So big budget mmo's will not imo disappear after the releases set for 2012.
I also do disagree with your 2 games you picked to be a success. This however is not fact or based on anything other than my opinion, so let me just say those 3 safety letters first, IMO... gw2 will be a success, but I honestly think based off my own experience, the hype surrounding it and the dev team rift will be a huge success. I also base this on the fact that, yes wow gamers are not really mmorpg gamers, but they will not stick around forever and I think when rift is released cataclysm will start to feel a little stale. As a result a few will realise that it might be time to try another game for at least a few months until alot of new content has been released and while rift is not wow it does have, to a degree, a wow feel so it will ease in some wow players rather than throwing them in at the deep end. I know this happens as I have a fair few friends that play wow and after each expansion/huge content release they play pretty hardcore, but after a few weeks they look elsewhere. Most of the time they go back to wow after a few months away, but if one of them finds a good game they stay there and almost forget about wow. As I said though this is just my opinion based on what I've seen previously.
EDIT - Just want to point out I am in no way saying that rift is a wow clone, far from it. I know it is not a wow clone, just pointing out that it has some features that wow players will feel comfy with which therefore might appeal to them when they look around for a game to releive the boredom for a few months.
Agred OP the future does indeed look very grim. Companies running (ruined!!) by suits trying to overhype wowmodelled games and talking about BS like break even point or how long the game has to last (yes I*m looking at you EA bastards), instead of focussing on creating a great virtual world.
Companies fail and fail and fail to understand, that WoW players aren[object Window]t necessarly MMORPG players. Most of them came from FPS or RTS games, they wont cancel their 6 year old lvl 85 toon with full t10 for a game which is modelled in a similar way. Tbh wo would? Why play a copy if you can play the original? As long as companies fail to understand this fact there will be other games like Warhammer.
I also hate it when companies do go public with the sub numbers I mean, seriously who cares? It doesn[object Window]t change my experience if there are 3.000, 100.000 or 2.000.000 playing my game, in fact couldn[object Window] t care less.
What we need are MMORPGS virtual worlds instead of simple game [object Window]themepark[object Window] worlds or a mixture of both. Maybe the most important point is to get rid off the big publishers and suits ruining studios over and over again.
We need a MMORPG Cataclysm asap, finish the dark age of MMORPGS now!
"Everything you're bitching about is wrong. People don't have the time to invest in corpse runs, impossible zones, or long winded quests. Sometimes, they just want to pop on and play." "Then maybe MMORPGs aren't for you."
I think the OP has a pretty good general grasp of the situation with American MMOs a couple years ago. Now a days the big budget games tend to be established IP though. The up and coming American MMOs certainly fit in this catagory. Warhammer 40k, World of Darkness, DC Universe, GW2, and the new Star Wars are all from this catagory.
While games like DCU, and Star Wars will have some room for experimentation, I think the success of the other three will be determined by how closely they can get the feel of their IP's feel. Specifically Warhammer 40k and World of darkness' success will be determined by how much they can make the Table top and P&P RPG fans fall in love with the games. WoW's success was because initially it felt like a very good adaptation of Warcraft 3. If they make a WoW clone like Warhammer 40k looks like in videos they will fail. But if they stick with the atmosphere and keep a similar leveling and play style they will certainly have an entirely different feel and audience to pull from.
W40k and WoD will be on a tight rope though. If they stick to close to the mechanics of their IP games they will end up like D&D online and fail. They need to keep in mind that some things just don't need rolls to hit in a 3D game where as they do in a P&P/Tabletop. But if they stray too far, they will alienate their core fan groups and fail because there's no rabid fans to word of mouth advertise.
As for original MMO games coming out, American companies are too afraid to create something new because of how much it costs to make. I suppose this is where Asian game companies have the edge as they can generally get the same amount of work for a lot less. They are the ones that are starting the move from traditional MMO to action/MMO. Vindictus, Tera, and Blade & Soul will be the heralds of the start of this move imo. How well they do will determine if other companies will make the move to action style MMOs, or if that style will stay niche.
OP, I'm gonna repeat what's been said and tell you that your post was very thought-out and well-delivered.
You're right, the general MMO market, excluding WoW, is still a niche community. I am one of the people you mentioned who keep clinging to hope that some game will take me back to the magic of my being a 11 year old kid playing '99 UO (Though I definitely remember being slightly better-mannered than 11 year olds I've encountered these days). As a niche community, however, it was still possible for great games like those to exist.
There are small companies trying to recreate those experiences, Mortal Online and Darkfall are two attempts that just happen to miss the point a little and focus too much on unrestricted PvP, but they were attempts nonetheless. All I can really hope for that is that you're wrong on that note, and that eventually, failing genre or no, someone will step up to the plate and offer an actually social experience that a lot of us remember from that era of MMO.
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I see them as being zoned off. It will be the same game but the non combat zone will be this huge area where people can go around clicking their crops and making sure they get harvested. Or making sure there is grass for their cattle. They will be able to sell what they make at market to people who make stuff for the "adventurers".
The combat zones will be smaller but more varied. Lots of cool environments for people to button mash in. :P
Playing: Tera, BF3, ME3
Waiting on: Guild Wars 2
awesome post. i would add that as devs continue to regurgitate the same game over and over again and fail with it it will become harder and harder for people to obtain venture capital funding to create new games.
I still have hope that there will be a GREAT AAA MMORPG that comes out of NOWHERE. Some small company is going to someday get the widgets going just right to have a truly fun game. It will NOT have been intented as AAA. It will NOT have been huge budget. However it WILL have decent graphics (even the little games are improving this way) and will NOT suffer from square grid syndrome. But most importantly it will be FUN and allow players to rediscover some of the love they had for their old games.
You see this somewhat with minecraft. It is something that is very bad in the graphics department but it has garnered a lot of players anyway because it is different. The stars will align for someone and they will get everything reasonably close to just right with enough novelty to all of a sudden end up with a million players -- and it will go up from there. Nobody will see it coming.
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As for the other games listed, the failure of FFXIV has produced an opening. The discouraged have had nowhere to go and are biding time. Also by the time they release Cataclysm will be old hat for people. Things might not be so very bleak for them assuming they didnt spend a warhammer level of money on the project. I can see all of them at least initially reaching 300k. Whether they can keep those subs will depend on how the game is.
Considering the progression of development tools, a decent title will most likely come sooner or later from an Indie company rather than a corportate one, and peg a niche crowd.
If I recall the Massive action game [MMOAG] has already been done and has infact ALREADY paved the way for that very phenomina. MAG anyone? It's already a greatest hits title on the PS3 quite enjoyable, I've been playing it since the MMORPG genre went south, but yes it's nothing compared to the depth of Everquest or UO but you can bet this is the game they will build off of.
I agree with you. I know several people who are interested in SWToR who are not interested in any other MMO. They have played other Bioware games and like them. Bioware is hoping to create their audience from their fans and Star Wars fans. Old School MMO players are a pretty small number in comparison.
But Bioware games are typically played for a few days tops. The biggest hype for the new star wars is the story. What happens after they have watched the story? How are they going to keep people subscribing every month? People will probably hit skip when they are watching the story anyways . .. and the story is the biggest hype. That leads me to think that it will be a joke as far as MMORPGs go. Even new people who want to watch the story will probably be encouraged to hit skip so that their friends dont have to wait for him.
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Well there are 8 stories for lovers of story to play through. Beyond they they will do it the same way Blizzard got thier fans hooked. These non-mmogamers are going to be WAY more succeptable to the gear grind than us vets who are tired of it. It will be like sheep to a slaughter.
Exactly how Blizzard did it.
Playing: Tera, BF3, ME3
Waiting on: Guild Wars 2
I think he was saying that the rose tinted glasses can start earlier than you think.
Playing: Tera, BF3, ME3
Waiting on: Guild Wars 2
I am inclined to agree that is what will happen with the MMORPG genre in the West, but the East shouldn't be underestimated.
Eastern MMORPG's still do cling to grinders, open worlds, and other traditional MMORPG ideas. This is why Aion is so popular in S. Korea and a massive success for NCSOFT. To me the revolution will come from the east not the west. As you have outlined the West will remain in a status quo.
But remember, this is not just a standard bioware game. They have said that players would be able to group up and explore areas which of course is the standard mmo fare. There are also the regular quests as well and I imagine that the min-game space combat thing is something that players might get into.
Now, I dont' know how successful the "grab players and explore" thing will be but they stated it's in there so that is more mmo like over regular bioware games.
Godfred's Tomb Trailer: https://youtu.be/-nsXGddj_4w
Original Skyrim: https://www.nexusmods.com/skyrim/mods/109547
Serph toze kindly has started a walk-through. https://youtu.be/UIelCK-lldo
I hope you dont mind, I hope you dont mind, that I put down in words. How wonderful MMORPGs were before WoW came to this world.
Well put and spot on, I sure hope this "cataclysm" happens soon. We could really use a spring clean of the whole genre, and a name for this new kind of action MMO's made for .. kids of all ages.
Companies are not completely off though, they have a huge audience for these kind of games, the mistake they make and we for beleiving them, is they think they make MMORPS.
The future is for the young and the new action mmo's are simply what kids and casual gamers wants today.
These players will not have PC's, they will have consoles, pads and phones and the games for these things will always be simpler.
The niche MMO players will still be here, not only the old sour ones like myself but also new players, and we can hope a cleanout of the genre will leave so few games that we can find a decent population and gameplay with one of these.
There is still a slight hope buried deep in me that I will be proved wrong one day.
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Well I'm going to have to disagree with your argument OP.
Your whole argument basically hinges on the assumption that WoW players are not "MMORPG-gamers" and thus cannot be won over to other MMORPGs. To be honest, I think this is ridiculous. WoW is most definitely, an MMORPG. In fact, it could be argued that WoW is currently the definitive MMORPG. Therefore, I see no reason why a WoW player is not indeed an MMORPG-gamer that could be won over to another MMORPG.
You imply in your post that since some WoW gamers are not aware of other MMORPGs (LOTR) that they would not be willing to try any other MMORPGs. I don't agree with this logic. It is probably true that WoW-gamers are not MMORPG-enthusiasts (like us), so they probably aren't as well informed, but that does not mean that wouldn't be willing to try a new MMORPG that appeals to them moreso than WoW. For example, if GW2 turns out to be superior to WoW in several ways and is marketed well it most definitely could pull some of WoW's audience away.
In the end, I think this whole WoW phenomenon has a much simpler explanation that being an MMO yet also being its own untouchable genre. WoW was and is simply the highest quality MMORPG on the market. I am completely sick of WoW, but I have to admit every MMORPG I played, especially ones that try to mirror WoW, have been vastly inferior. In my opinion, WoW will remain dominant precisely until a game is released that provides a superior experience to WoW and is successful in informing WoW's player base of its existence.
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I stopped reading after I saw the word "penicle"
anyone who writes such a long rant and who can't spell doesn't deserve to be heard.
Hm. You know, in the end, the worst case scenario might just come in.
DCU is a short pooper, play to max level in 3 weeks and quit.
Rift is a WOW clone with some small quirks.
Tera is another Asia grinder like Aion.
SWTOR is boring and dull. (see Gamestar & 4Players articles)
GW2 is ?? Who knows.
And we end up as bitter as before. Let's hope this worst case scenario isn't true. But these days, the more I read, the more skeptical I get.
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That's like taking the see-saw, pushing both the devs and players off either side and tipping it so that it's facing bottom-up and unusable.
Cheer up, mate. They all "promise" something special, so let's not get ahead of ourselves and be patient. We've been patient all these years already...
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How funny TOR is WOW is a Star Wars Skin.
I and others have done threads on this sort of issue before you are not alone in your concerns. As you can also see from the many replies to this thread. Like you I am particularly concerned about the future of MMO’s and indeed gaming. Many seem to think the rot stops here, but there is no reason for that to happen, it will just continue.
I have linked the decline in MMO quality to the increasingly corporate nature of gaming companies before and I recently noticed another trend that confirms this is happening.
Firstly though I need to point out that the corporate nature of any business is important and needed for it to thrive, I am not advocating some sort of naïve business sense free initiative here.
If you look at games from Eastern Europe and Russia you will find games being made the way we used to in Western Europe and the US. Titles Like The Witcher, Arm2, Stalker, Elven Legacy and so on. They harken back to a time when publishers were prepared to take risks, not just make games for everyone ‘and their mom.’ We are already in a situation were gaming companies predominantly produce games that are for everyone rather than different types of players. We are already far on the road to a Starbucks genre instead of a local coffee house genre.
It is the small nature of those East European and Russian companies that is helping to produce these gems, you don’t need huge monoliths like EA and Blizzard to produce a good game. Oh and these guys do patches and free updates, remember when you last had that from a game produced in the west? Now days it is the fashion not to patch and release paid for DLC on the day of launch! Take the Witcher, there were some complaints about lack of character models, ten months later a huge patch is released with loads of extras models. Corporate mentality shines through when you don’t bother to patch, after all they have already paid haven’t they, why bother? When the only post release product you work on is paid for DLC that says it all.
But it is not all good news from the east, Allods is the only MMO I have heard about form that region and though it was described as innovative the F2P fees were exorbitant in important areas of play.
But I don’t see Eastern Europe and Russia as some sort of saviour here, they are on the road that leads to where we are today. But they do indicate that this is no old gamers nostalgia, you can still make games the way they did ten years ago and knock the stuffing out of the puerile mash they are feeding us today.
i think you are totally dead on with this one. good job!
I don't think the ultimate future of mmos is grim at all . The immediate future however could be another matter . I think we all know what needs to happen and that is for a game to come along that offers a mass appeal alternative to WoW .it does'nt have to be even that different in fact to have that mass appeal it would need to build on whats gone before . After all we did'nt get from DOOM to Half-Life over night did we . So lets be realistic eh . Next years batch of mmos look the stronger ever to me . We could see another lot of Warhammers , Vanguards or Age of Conans but I'm hoping one of them is that competition .
The good news is, all of the developers of next years crop of games has had a chance to see what happens when someone tries to copy WOW (and fails).
What lesson they take away from this will be important, will they try to carve their own way or decide that previous failures didn't follow the WOW forumula enough and will continue the trend towards obvlion.
But like the OP said, it looks like Bioware and to a lesser extent Arenanet are trying to carve their marketshare from the players of their previous games and it might mean only these two titles have any reach chance of reaching reasonably large sales/sub numbers. (GW2's unique payment model also gives it an extra edge)
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Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
I agree with the OP on some points. 2011 - 2012 may well be the last 2 years of huge budget mmorpgs being released IF none of the ones released are successful. If even one of them is then it will inspire other companies to try to take a share of the market... and there certainly are a few set for release that I think will be a success. So big budget mmo's will not imo disappear after the releases set for 2012.
I also do disagree with your 2 games you picked to be a success. This however is not fact or based on anything other than my opinion, so let me just say those 3 safety letters first, IMO... gw2 will be a success, but I honestly think based off my own experience, the hype surrounding it and the dev team rift will be a huge success. I also base this on the fact that, yes wow gamers are not really mmorpg gamers, but they will not stick around forever and I think when rift is released cataclysm will start to feel a little stale. As a result a few will realise that it might be time to try another game for at least a few months until alot of new content has been released and while rift is not wow it does have, to a degree, a wow feel so it will ease in some wow players rather than throwing them in at the deep end. I know this happens as I have a fair few friends that play wow and after each expansion/huge content release they play pretty hardcore, but after a few weeks they look elsewhere. Most of the time they go back to wow after a few months away, but if one of them finds a good game they stay there and almost forget about wow. As I said though this is just my opinion based on what I've seen previously.
EDIT - Just want to point out I am in no way saying that rift is a wow clone, far from it. I know it is not a wow clone, just pointing out that it has some features that wow players will feel comfy with which therefore might appeal to them when they look around for a game to releive the boredom for a few months.
Agred OP the future does indeed look very grim. Companies running (ruined!!) by suits trying to overhype wowmodelled games and talking about BS like break even point or how long the game has to last (yes I*m looking at you EA bastards), instead of focussing on creating a great virtual world.
Companies fail and fail and fail to understand, that WoW players aren[object Window]t necessarly MMORPG players. Most of them came from FPS or RTS games, they wont cancel their 6 year old lvl 85 toon with full t10 for a game which is modelled in a similar way. Tbh wo would? Why play a copy if you can play the original? As long as companies fail to understand this fact there will be other games like Warhammer.
I also hate it when companies do go public with the sub numbers I mean, seriously who cares? It doesn[object Window]t change my experience if there are 3.000, 100.000 or 2.000.000 playing my game, in fact couldn[object Window] t care less.
What we need are MMORPGS virtual worlds instead of simple game [object Window]themepark[object Window] worlds or a mixture of both. Maybe the most important point is to get rid off the big publishers and suits ruining studios over and over again.
We need a MMORPG Cataclysm asap, finish the dark age of MMORPGS now!
"Everything you're bitching about is wrong. People don't have the time to invest in corpse runs, impossible zones, or long winded quests. Sometimes, they just want to pop on and play."
"Then maybe MMORPGs aren't for you."
I think the OP has a pretty good general grasp of the situation with American MMOs a couple years ago. Now a days the big budget games tend to be established IP though. The up and coming American MMOs certainly fit in this catagory. Warhammer 40k, World of Darkness, DC Universe, GW2, and the new Star Wars are all from this catagory.
While games like DCU, and Star Wars will have some room for experimentation, I think the success of the other three will be determined by how closely they can get the feel of their IP's feel. Specifically Warhammer 40k and World of darkness' success will be determined by how much they can make the Table top and P&P RPG fans fall in love with the games. WoW's success was because initially it felt like a very good adaptation of Warcraft 3. If they make a WoW clone like Warhammer 40k looks like in videos they will fail. But if they stick with the atmosphere and keep a similar leveling and play style they will certainly have an entirely different feel and audience to pull from.
W40k and WoD will be on a tight rope though. If they stick to close to the mechanics of their IP games they will end up like D&D online and fail. They need to keep in mind that some things just don't need rolls to hit in a 3D game where as they do in a P&P/Tabletop. But if they stray too far, they will alienate their core fan groups and fail because there's no rabid fans to word of mouth advertise.
As for original MMO games coming out, American companies are too afraid to create something new because of how much it costs to make. I suppose this is where Asian game companies have the edge as they can generally get the same amount of work for a lot less. They are the ones that are starting the move from traditional MMO to action/MMO. Vindictus, Tera, and Blade & Soul will be the heralds of the start of this move imo. How well they do will determine if other companies will make the move to action style MMOs, or if that style will stay niche.
OP, I'm gonna repeat what's been said and tell you that your post was very thought-out and well-delivered.
You're right, the general MMO market, excluding WoW, is still a niche community. I am one of the people you mentioned who keep clinging to hope that some game will take me back to the magic of my being a 11 year old kid playing '99 UO (Though I definitely remember being slightly better-mannered than 11 year olds I've encountered these days). As a niche community, however, it was still possible for great games like those to exist.
There are small companies trying to recreate those experiences, Mortal Online and Darkfall are two attempts that just happen to miss the point a little and focus too much on unrestricted PvP, but they were attempts nonetheless. All I can really hope for that is that you're wrong on that note, and that eventually, failing genre or no, someone will step up to the plate and offer an actually social experience that a lot of us remember from that era of MMO.